Core Viewpoint - Domestic and foreign investment institutions predict that the A-share market will transition from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market in 2026, with expectations of a gradual recovery in earnings [1][20]. Group 1: Market Outlook - According to China Securities, A-shares are expected to move from the "Bull Market II Phase" to the "Bull Market III Phase," driven by profit improvements, with a projected earnings growth rate of 5%-10% for non-financial A-shares in 2026 [2][25]. - The overall net profit growth for A-shares is anticipated to reach 16.5% in 2026, supported by a recovery in gross margins and a more balanced market across various sectors [4][27]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 6% earnings growth for the MSCI China Index in 2026, accelerating to 10% in 2027, with a target price for the index set at 90 points [38]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Key investment themes identified include technology, "anti-involution," and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery, with a focus on AI, new energy, and military technology [11][13][20]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes a shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven growth, highlighting the importance of AI and "anti-involution" policies as major growth drivers [34]. - UBS suggests focusing on self-sufficiency, "anti-involution," and overseas expansion, with an expected earnings growth rate for A-shares rising from 6% to 8% in 2026 [36][37]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - Recommended asset allocation includes sectors such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, power equipment, electronics, media, and social services [3][26]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors like AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as traditional cyclical sectors benefiting from price recovery and demand stimulation [4][27]. - Specific stocks with strong growth in the "anti-involution" theme have shown significant revenue and profit increases, indicating potential investment opportunities [24][45].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 现在低迷的品种,可能会成为未来某个 阶段领涨的品种，只是这需要有足够的 耐心。 杜鹃不啼,则待之啼。 皿以以下リ） ←Ｖム▽十人にリソ皿 以 ハイ 市。很少有普涨型牛市。 因为有结构性牛市的特点，不能指望一 次牛市所有品种都到高估。 但上涨少的品种，也不用担心，它们可 能在未来某一轮行情中，会遇到上涨。 例如2015年是小盘股的牛市，之后的 2016-2017年是大盘价值风格领涨; 2019-2021年是大盘成长领涨。小盘股 在这段时间里都没有太强，一直到2025 年,小盘又变成强势品种。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 另外，没到高估，也不是说没有收益。 即伊—卢左紅汁 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic policies and structural adjustments in China, focusing on the implications for various industries, particularly emerging sectors like technology and AI. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Policy Direction**: The central economic work conference indicates a shift towards structural adjustments in macroeconomic policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of 4% and a slight increase in the broad deficit, emphasizing service consumption [5][1][2]. 2. **Balance of New and Old Drivers**: The conference highlights the importance of balancing new and old economic drivers, with a focus on accelerating the transition between industries, expected to complete between 2027 and 2031 [2][3]. 3. **Structural Bull Market in Capital Markets**: The capital market is expected to continue a structural bull market, with technology innovation leading the A-share market. Investors are advised to focus on technology sectors and emerging industries to seize structural opportunities [6][1][3]. 4. **Debt Market Outlook**: The bond market may face a steepening yield curve, with long-term bonds under pressure. Attention should be paid to nominal GDP and price factors to reflect real supply-demand relationships [7][1][5]. 5. **Support for Emerging Industries**: The 2025 policy direction emphasizes active fiscal policies and support for domestic demand, technology innovation, and small and medium enterprises, with a focus on new quality productivity [8][1][3]. 6. **Historical Performance of Emerging Industries**: Emerging industries have historically performed well in the A-share market, with significant market capitalization growth driven by policy support during various economic waves [9][10]. 7. **Focus on AI and High-End Manufacturing**: Key emerging sectors to watch include AI applications, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy, which are expected to show signs of price recovery and profit improvement [11][1][3]. 8. **Impact of Anti-Overwork Policies**: The anti-overwork policies are expected to significantly influence future economic performance and asset allocation, with a potential shift in PPI expected by mid-2026 [12][1][3]. 9. **Investment Opportunities in A-Share Market**: The current A-share market is characterized by a structural bull market, with new production industries like AI and high-end manufacturing presenting investment opportunities [13][1][3]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Capacity Reduction**: The process of capacity reduction faces challenges such as insufficient downstream demand and inconsistent enforcement of administrative standards across regions [18][1][3]. 2. **Future Development of Anti-Overwork Policies**: The anti-overwork policy is seen as a critical economic strategy, with potential for further administrative intervention if current measures do not yield desired results [19][1][3]. 3. **Industry Self-Regulation in the Photovoltaic Sector**: A self-regulation agreement in the photovoltaic industry quickly collapsed due to lack of enforcement power, highlighting the challenges of maintaining industry standards [14][1][3].

北京商报讯（记者 李海媛）12月11日，由中外企业文化、北京商报社主办的2025年度北京商业品牌大会金融消费专题论坛在北京召开。川财证券首席经济 学家、总裁助理、研究所所长陈雳在题为《向新而行：2026年宏观经济及市场投资展望》的演讲中提到，2026年投资机会要看几个看得见、摸得着的方向。 首先是一揽子政策组合拳巩固市场稳固活跃态势。2025年，我国资本市场在深化改革的政策驱动下，展现出更为稳固和活跃的运行态势。监管部门围绕稳市 场、促改革、防风险三大维度协同发力，通过一揽子"组合拳"政策巩固市场回稳向好势头，并着力提升资本市场服务新质生产力与科技创新的能力。 其次是2025年A股呈现科技和新材料主导的结构性牛市。从行业板块看，涨幅榜呈现清晰的产业主线。贵金属及特种金属大幅上涨，通信、电力设备及电子 板块紧随其后，共同构成了以新能源、科技与高端制造为核心的领涨集群。相比之下，金融、消费及部分传统周期板块表现相对疲软。这清晰地反映出市场 行情高度聚焦于代表新质生产力的科技成长赛道。债市在2025年承受了一定的压力，从投资展望来看，仍需要一定的时间。 具体赛道来看，算力将成为驱动AI新时代的智能引擎。同时，作为" ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third cut of the year and a total reduction of 75 basis points [1][10] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further rate hikes are unlikely, attributing current inflation partly to tariff factors, and noted that excluding these factors, inflation is around 2%, close to the Fed's target [1][11] - The Fed's decision to cut rates has alleviated concerns about a hawkish signal, with Powell stating that policymakers are observing economic trends and that rate hikes are not the current baseline scenario [11][12] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's continued rate cuts are expected to lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, while the Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate, potentially attracting more foreign capital into Chinese assets [12][13] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests a shift in global capital flows, with funds moving from high-valued US markets to lower-valued A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, enhancing the revaluation potential of Chinese assets [13][16] - China's GDP growth is projected to remain around 5% in 2026, supported by stable economic recovery, which will provide a foundation for the A-share market to maintain a slow bull and long bull trend [17] Group 3: Capital Market Trends - The capital market is expected to see a continued shift towards equity funds, with public fund sales likely to recover, driven by a significant increase in household savings, which have reached 165 trillion yuan [14][15] - The market is anticipated to stabilize above the 4000-point mark, with a gradual upward trend rather than a rapid bull market, characterized by a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern [14][15] - The technology sector, which has been a standout performer, is expected to remain a key investment theme in 2026, alongside potential rebounds in the new energy and consumer sectors [14][16] Group 4: Global Trade and Policy - The negative impact of US-China trade tensions on exports is diminishing, with China's trade surplus exceeding one trillion dollars this year, a historical high [17] - The "dual circulation" strategy emphasizes the importance of both domestic and international markets to ensure sustainable economic growth, balancing external demand with internal consumption and investment [17] - The central government's policies are set to support economic growth through proactive fiscal measures and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to create a favorable financial environment [13][14]

坚定而持续的股市财富效应是我国经济转型非常重要的方面，目前我国的消费占比仍然较少。坚定而 持续的财富效应目前只能在股市看到，而2021年前面的20年，房地产作为居民财富保值增值几乎是 唯一的载体，这种情况大概率正在退出历史舞台。 资瑞兴董事长汪忠远表示："我从业30多年，职业生涯和财富与股市攸关，有那么多好公司在几十年来 从小长到大，这是我们赖以生存的根本，虽然它也有很多毛病，但现在越来越多高净值客户都觉得股市 是相对最公平的资产。从机制来说，我们也中了很强的'卵巢彩票'。" 凯文·凯利多次在公开预测中提到，中国将成为"酷中国"。如果中国真变成很酷国家，那么中国文化将横 扫全球，那时很多代表"软实力"的消费类公司就会成为全球性的大市值公司。事实上，我们当前已经看 到很多矿业公司、电力设备公司、交通工具公司等"硬实力"公司正在成为全球性公司。 哈佛大学有个预测，00后们的预期寿命至少50%都在百岁以上。我们这批70年代很多人的寿命可能都 在90岁以上，那么我们的财富规划其实是一个非常重要的事情。 "假设在2015年10月时有个先知跟我说：'汪忠远，你现在出来创设个私募产品，现在上证指数3500 点，未来10年也 ...

新华财经新加坡12月6日电（记者刘春涛）新加坡华侨银行（OCBC）全球市场研究团队近日发布2026 年上半年大宗商品展望报告。报告指出，受益于结构性需求转变及宏观环境支持，贵金属（黄金、白 银）在2026年预计将继续保持上涨势头，其中黄金期末目标价上看4800美元／盎司；相比之下，原油市 场受供应过剩影响，价格中枢或将进一步下移。 原油：供应过剩压力显现 油价或震荡下行 与贵金属的火热行情不同，华侨银行对能源市场前景持谨慎态度。报告预测，2026年WTI原油和布伦特 原油的平均价格将分别降至59美元／桶和62美元／桶，低于2025年的预测均值。 报告分析称，全球石油市场正面临供应过剩的局面。数据显示，截至2025年10月，市场已连续8个月出 现供过于求。经合组织（OECD）商业原油库存已超过过去五年的季节性平均水平，并预计在2026年7 月底突破31亿桶。 供应端方面，OPEC+从2025年4月开始逐步取消自愿减产措施，加上非OPEC+国家产量的强劲增长，将 导致供应进一步释放。需求端方面，尽管中国需求增长抵消了部分地区的疲软，但全球整体石油需求增 长保持平稳，难以消化新增产能。华侨银行指出，随着地缘政治溢价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural bull market, characterized by significant gains in specific sectors while others lag behind, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued stocks [10][11][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market opened lower but closed higher, returning to a rating of 4.2 stars [1]. - All market caps, including large, mid, and small caps, saw increases, with small caps outperforming slightly [2]. - Both value and growth styles experienced upward movement [3]. Group 2: Positive Market Drivers - Positive news circulated during the trading day, contributing to market gains [4]. - Insurance institutions lowered risk factors for indices like the CSI 300 and the Low Volatility Dividend 100, allowing for increased allocation to these stocks [5][6]. - This adjustment led to significant increases in sectors such as securities, insurance, and value stocks [7]. Group 3: Structural Bull Market Characteristics - Structural bull markets often see certain categories of stocks rise significantly while others may not reach high valuations [10][12]. - Historical examples include the small-cap growth bull market in 2015 and the large-cap value bull market from 2016 to 2017 [13][14]. Group 4: Current Market Trends - The main drivers of this year's market increase are small-cap and growth styles, with indices like the CSI 2000 and tech-focused boards showing gains exceeding the market average [15]. - Many stocks in these categories have strong fundamentals, with tech companies in A-shares and Hong Kong showing over 30% year-on-year profit growth [18]. - Some sectors, such as consumer and healthcare, have seen moderate profit growth, while others like consumption have experienced declines [21][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Stocks that are currently underperforming may become leaders in future market cycles, emphasizing the need for patience among investors [27][32]. - Even undervalued indices can yield returns over time, as seen with dividend and low-volatility indices that have appreciated by 50-70% since 2018 despite not reaching high valuations [40][41]. Group 6: Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for Hong Kong indices, indicating that the market has already returned to a rating of over 3 stars due to earlier gains compared to A-shares [42]. - The valuation metrics for various indices, including PE ratios and dividend yields, are summarized for investor reference [43].

Core Viewpoints - The 2026 Postal Financial Forum highlighted the importance of risk awareness and effective credit supply in the banking sector, emphasizing the need for banks to combine risk assessment with opportunity recognition [1][3][4] - Insurance funds are evolving into more strategic players in the capital market, focusing on long-term investments and aligning with national strategies [10][11] - The Chinese equity market is expected to enter a long-term structural bull market by 2026, driven by improving corporate profits and strategic investment themes [12][13] Banking Sector Insights - Liu Jianjun, President of Postal Savings Bank, emphasized the need for banks to cultivate a "future-oriented" risk perspective to enhance credit availability, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4] - Eight strategies were proposed to address challenges in the banking sector, including long-termism, capability building, digital transformation, and risk management [4][5][6][7][8][9] Insurance Sector Developments - Han Guangyue, Chairman of China Postal Life Insurance, noted that insurance funds are now prioritizing asset-liability matching and capital efficiency, moving towards lower-risk, high-capital efficiency assets [10][11] - The focus of insurance investments has shifted from cyclical hotspots to sectors like high dividends, technological innovation, and infrastructure, aligning with long-term investment strategies [11] Market Outlook - Huang Fusheng, Chief Economist of China Postal Securities, predicted a structural bull market for Chinese equities starting in 2026, with key investment themes including innovative pharmaceuticals and technology [12] - The bond market is expected to stabilize, with limited room for interest rate cuts, while commodity prices are anticipated to rise due to global economic recovery and supply constraints [13] - Concerns regarding AI stock bubbles were addressed, indicating that current valuations are manageable compared to historical peaks, with increased competition in the tech sector helping to mitigate risks [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the A-share market is still in a bull market despite recent fluctuations, characterized by rapid price increases rather than slow, steady growth [5][30]. - The definition of a bull market varies among investors, but generally, a technical bull market is recognized when prices rise over 20% from a bear market low [3][4]. - Recent market fluctuations have shown a correction of approximately -6.47% from the peak, which is less severe than previous corrections in 2024 and 2025 [4][5]. Group 2 - Historical bull markets in A-shares have been marked by rapid increases, with significant gains occurring in short bursts, such as in 2014-2015 and the recent periods from September 2024 and June to August 2025 [10][11]. - A-shares typically experience structural bull markets, where specific sectors lead the gains, contrasting with the broad-based bull market seen in 2007 [15][18]. - The market often experiences corrections during bull runs, with patterns of "three steps forward, one step back" being common [17][18]. Group 3 - Investors are advised against chasing prices and making frequent trades, as historical data shows that many accounts were opened during previous bull markets, leading to losses when prices peaked [20][21]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on buying undervalued stocks, as the market tends to trend upwards over time [25][27]. - The average annual return for A-shares is around 8%-10%, indicating that the current bull market is characterized by rapid gains rather than a slow bull [30]. Group 4 - The recent bull market has been influenced by short-term factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have increased liquidity in the market [32][33]. - Long-term factors include a recovery in corporate earnings, with A-share companies showing a positive growth trend in profits since 2025 [35][37]. - The continuation of the bull market is likely if the Federal Reserve maintains a low interest rate environment and corporate earnings continue to improve [37][39].