1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is optimistic about the short - and medium - to long - term trends of the Hong Kong stock market, and continues to be bullish on the current structural market of Hong Kong stocks this year [9]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong structural bull market last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising 3.82% and trading volume remaining high. The external environment was stable, and there was strong capital support for market value. With the Fed likely to cut interest rates in September, the capital situation of Hong Kong stocks may improve further, and the mainland may introduce relevant loose and favorable policies, which will support the valuation of Hong Kong stocks in the medium - to long - term [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Investment View 3.1.1 Market Summary - The Hong Kong stock market rose rapidly last week, with the Hang Seng Index up 3.82% and trading volume at a high level. Leveraged short - selling ETF funds flowed in rapidly, and southbound mainland funds accelerated their net inflow into Hong Kong stocks, nearly doubling from the previous week [5]. 3.1.2 Market Environment - The external environment of the Hong Kong stock market was relatively stable, showing a strong structural bull market. Overseas markets, especially the US market, had positive sentiment due to inflation data increasing the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. In China, the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. Southbound funds have continued to flow into Hong Kong stocks this year, and overseas funds have also increased their holdings. The liquidity supports the valuation, and the structural market driven by loose liquidity will continue in the fourth quarter [6][7][8]. 3.1.3 Outlook - Based on the market environment, the report is optimistic about the short - and medium - to long - term trends of Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index is in an upward channel, and the inflow of funds may increase after the Fed cuts interest rates. If there are stimulus measures and new performance growth points, the long - term market of Hong Kong stocks can be expected [9]. 3.1.4 Sector Allocation - In the near term, investors can focus on leading stocks in the Internet sector, domestic substitution concepts, the innovative drug industry, and sectors benefiting from the "anti - involution" policy. Long - term investors can allocate dividend sectors such as energy, communication, and public utilities. In derivatives trading, investors can sell option combinations to reduce holding costs [2][10]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Performance - Hong Kong stock index futures prices rose rapidly last week, with the September 2025 Hang Seng Index futures up 3.89% and the technology index futures up 5.18%. US stock index futures prices fluctuated, with the Dow Jones futures up 0.87%, the S&P 500 futures up 1.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.81%. The premium level of stock index futures continued to decline, indicating a drop in investor sentiment [1][11]. 3.2.2 Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market rose last week, with the Hang Seng Index up 3.82%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 2.86%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 5.31%. Most sectors rose, led by raw materials and technology, while the energy and medical sectors declined. Southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$60.82 billion, nearly doubling from the previous week. The US stock market also rose, and the risk appetite of the market increased significantly [13]. 3.3 Market External Environment Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic Main City Housing Sales Tracking - In the latest week, the sales of new and second - hand houses in first - tier cities increased year - on - year. The total sales volume of 30 cities decreased compared with the 12 - week average, with different trends in first, second, and third - tier cities [25][26]. 3.3.2 Central Bank's Latest Movements - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, and traders reduced their bets on its easing policy. US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent called on the Fed to cut interest rates [27]. 3.3.3 Some Domestic and Overseas Important News - China's M2 and M1 growth rates were announced in August, with the M1 - M2 gap narrowing. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI decline narrowed. In the US, the CPI in August was in line with expectations, and the PPI unexpectedly declined. The US non - farm employment was revised downwards [28]. 3.3.4 This Week's Focus - China will announce a series of August economic data, the US will release August retail sales data, and central banks such as the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions [29].

Group 1: Economic Trends - The manufacturing investment has maintained a relatively high growth rate, indicating positive changes in economic structure adjustment [1][2] - The current economic state is better described as economic development rather than just economic growth rate, with a focus on transitioning from real estate to manufacturing [2][3] - The August PMI data showed a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, but it has not fully returned to the expansion zone, highlighting the ongoing economic recovery [2] Group 2: Consumption and Investment - Consumption has consistently outperformed investment in recent years, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend due to government policies [2][3] - Real estate and infrastructure investments are relatively weak, while manufacturing investment continues to show strong growth, reflecting structural adjustments [2][3] - The external demand remains strong due to China's competitive export products, which are of good quality and reasonably priced [2] Group 3: Domestic Circulation and Consumer Behavior - Insufficient domestic demand is a significant challenge for economic operation, linked to consumer income and savings behavior [3] - The government has implemented measures to stimulate consumption, such as trade-in policies, and is shifting focus from green initiatives to smart consumption [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The current A-share market is characterized as a structural bull market driven primarily by liquidity rather than a broad market rally [6] - Information leverage has accelerated the rate at which investors enter the market, influenced by social interactions and media [6][7] - The phenomenon of retail investors re-engaging in the market indicates a potential shift in market dynamics as the bull market progresses [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is characterized by a structural bull market in the A-share market, driven primarily by liquidity rather than a broad market rally [3][9]. Economic Data and Trends - Manufacturing investment has maintained a relatively high growth rate, indicating positive changes in economic structure [2]. - The August PMI data showed a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, but it has not fully returned to the expansion zone, reflecting a focus on economic development rather than just growth rates [5]. - The shift from real estate to manufacturing is seen as a significant positive signal for economic growth [5]. Consumption and Investment Dynamics - Consumption has consistently outperformed investment, with government policies like the trade-in program playing a crucial role [5][7]. - There is a notable weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments, while manufacturing investment remains strong [5][7]. - External demand is robust due to China's competitive export products, which are of high quality and reasonably priced, even amidst trade tensions [5]. Domestic Circulation and Challenges - Insufficient domestic demand is a prominent challenge for economic operation, linked to consumer income and savings behavior [7]. - The phenomenon of excess savings may be attributed to a lack of attractive investment opportunities and declining income expectations among some residents [7]. New and Old Momentum Transition - The economy has been historically tied to real estate, but there are signs of innovation and technological breakthroughs in sectors like high-tech, which could drive future growth [8]. Market Characteristics - The current A-share market is identified as a structural bull market, primarily influenced by liquidity from professional investors and margin financing, rather than a significant influx of retail investors [9]. - The market is experiencing a slow but steady entry of long-term funds, such as insurance capital [9]. Information Leverage - The term "information leverage" refers to the accelerated rate at which market information spreads, influencing investor behavior and entry into the market [10][11]. - The phenomenon of retail investors re-engaging with the market during bullish phases is noted, with social media playing a significant role in information dissemination [10][11].

Economic Outlook - The manufacturing investment has maintained a relatively high growth rate in recent years, indicating positive changes in economic structure [1][2] - The current economic state is better described as economic development rather than just economic growth rate, with a focus on transitioning from real estate to manufacturing [2][3] Market Analysis - The A-share market is characterized as a structural bull market rather than a comprehensive bull market, primarily driven by liquidity [1][6] - There is a notable absence of large-scale movement of household savings into the stock market, with professional investors and margin financing being the main sources of liquidity [6][7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is closely related to income, with excess savings being a significant issue due to a lack of attractive investment opportunities and declining income expectations [3] - Government policies, such as trade-in programs, are aimed at stimulating consumption and guiding consumer behavior towards more positive changes [3] New Economic Drivers - The transition from old to new economic drivers is underway, with innovative companies emerging as a signal of potential in high-tech industries [4] - The market is witnessing a shift in focus from traditional industries to sectors that align with future economic development [4] Information Leverage - The concept of information leverage is highlighted, where the speed of information dissemination influences investor behavior and accelerates market entry [2][6][7] - The phenomenon of retail investors re-engaging in the market is observed, indicating a shift in market dynamics as information spreads rapidly through social networks [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "structural bull market" in the context of China's real estate and stock markets, highlighting that since 2016, the market has not experienced a comprehensive bull market, but rather a structural one where investment is concentrated in specific sectors [2][8] - The real estate market in China has shown a trend of increasing numbers of cities experiencing price declines, with the peak of the real estate cycle occurring in 2021 [2][8] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, contrasting with the overall downward trend in the national real estate market [8][9] Group 2 - The article compares the peak of China's real estate market in 2021 to Japan's in 1991, noting that while Tokyo's prices fell by over 50% by 1995, Shanghai's projected decline by 2025 is around 30% [8][10] - The demand for luxury properties in Shanghai is driven by factors such as urbanization, income disparity, and a lack of high-yield investment opportunities, leading to a concentration of wealth in major cities [11][15] - The article highlights that the high-end property market in Shanghai is characterized by significant price increases, with some luxury projects seeing price hikes of over 16% within a year [9][11] Group 3 - The stock market is experiencing a structural bull market, particularly in the technology sector, driven by optimism surrounding AI and related industries, with the ChiNext 50 index showing a significant increase [19][23] - The article notes that the current market environment is marked by low interest rates and a shift of funds from savings to equities, although overall economic growth remains a concern [21][27] - The disparity in investment preferences between A-shares and U.S. stocks is highlighted, with A-shares focusing more on smaller companies and storytelling rather than valuation metrics [30][32]

美股的头部集中效应显著。美股巨头（如苹果、微软、英伟达等）因其稳定的现金流、技术护城河和行业主导地位，长 期享受高于市场的估值，市场愿意为高增长的科技公司支付溢价。去年的涨幅中，美股"七巨头"贡献了近一半的涨幅。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的 准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇9月15日｜中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷近日发文称，A股这轮一开始以估值水平提升驱动(存款利率下行)为特征 的慢牛行情，已经转变为以高成长预期驱动为特征的结构性牛市。存在即合理，屡创历史新高的同样具有鲜明的结构性 牛市特征，如从2010年至今，头部的12.5%的美股上市公司贡献了几乎美股总市值的净增长，而剩余87.5%上市公司的市 值合计没有变化。 ...

从统计数据来看，上海楼市中成交最活跃的是高端产品。据业内保守预计，今年上海总价3000万元以上新房全年成交金额将突破一 千亿元。其中头部标杆项目对市场的带动作用非常明显。 有统计显示，黄浦区新房成交均价在过去5年涨幅接近30%，由2020年的13.8万/㎡升至2025年的17.9万/㎡，持续稳居上海最贵位 置。新房的走俏和不断涨价显然不能简单用与二手房之间的"价差"来解释。 例如，近日开盘的黄浦区豪宅——壹号院，套均总价7300多万的新盘当日一小时再次被抢购一空。去年8月，壹号院首批次入市均 价为17万/㎡；今年1月的二批次均价为17.8万/㎡，上涨8000元/㎡；5月的三批次均价为18.5万/㎡，上涨7000元/㎡；6月的四批次均 价为18.9万/㎡，上涨4000元/㎡；8月的五批次均价为19.8万/㎡，上涨9000元/㎡。仅隔一年时间，均价上涨16.5%。 李迅雷系中泰国际首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛副理事长 （转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722） 2016年以后，"结构性"一词开始逐步流行起来，出现最频繁的莫过于供给侧结构性改革。事实上，2016年以后，股市再也没有出现 过全面牛 ...

Group 1 - The term "structural" has gained popularity since 2016, particularly in the context of supply-side structural reforms, leading to a market characterized by thematic investments rather than a broad bull market [1] - The real estate market has also shown signs of structural changes, with a growing number of cities experiencing price declines, indicating a shift from a uniform price increase to a more varied landscape [1] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, contrasting with the overall downward trend in the national real estate market [2][3] Group 2 - Shanghai's luxury market is expected to see over 100 billion yuan in sales for new homes priced above 30 million yuan, with the Huangpu District's new home prices rising nearly 30% over the past five years [2][3] - The average price of luxury properties in Shanghai has consistently increased, with specific projects like 壹号院 experiencing a 16.5% price rise within a year [3] - The demand for luxury properties in Shanghai is driven by factors such as urbanization, income disparity, and a lack of high-yield investment opportunities, leading to a concentration of wealth in major cities [7][8][11] Group 3 - The current real estate market in China is facing a downturn, with new home sales and prices declining, yet the luxury segment in cities like Shanghai remains robust [11][12] - The comparison with Japan's real estate market highlights that while Japan's market saw a 50% decline from its peak, Shanghai's luxury market is projected to only decline by about 30% by 2025 [2][4] - The structural bull market in the stock market is characterized by a focus on technology sectors, with significant growth in the AI and semiconductor industries, reflecting a shift in investment patterns [20][26]

Group 1 - The term "structural" has gained popularity since 2016, particularly in the context of supply-side structural reforms, leading to a "structural bull market" where investment opportunities are concentrated in a few sectors [1] - The real estate market has also experienced a structural shift, with a growing number of cities showing price declines rather than uniform increases, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, contrasting with the overall downward trend in the national housing market [2][3] Group 2 - Shanghai's luxury market is characterized by strong demand, with high-value properties consistently selling out, indicating a robust appetite for premium real estate despite broader market challenges [3][7] - The price of new luxury apartments in Shanghai has risen sharply, with some projects experiencing price increases of over 16% within a year, highlighting the resilience of high-end real estate [3][4] - The disparity in real estate performance between Shanghai and other cities can be attributed to factors such as urbanization trends, income inequality, and a scarcity of high-quality assets in the market [8][11] Group 3 - The current economic environment in China is marked by an "asset shortage," where low interest rates and declining returns on traditional investments drive wealthy individuals towards luxury real estate as a means of asset appreciation [11][14] - The overall real estate market in China remains sluggish, with a decline in sales volume and prices, yet the luxury segment in major cities like Shanghai continues to perform well [11][12] - The comparison with Japan's real estate market suggests that while Shanghai's luxury prices are increasing, they are doing so at a slower rate than Tokyo's historical declines, indicating a different market dynamic [2][4] Group 4 - The structural bull market in the stock market is driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors, which are experiencing significant growth despite broader economic challenges [26][30] - The A-share market shows a preference for smaller companies, contrasting with the U.S. market where larger firms dominate, indicating different investment behaviors and market structures [29][30] - The ongoing transformation of China's economy is evident, with emerging industries gaining market share, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards technology and innovation [25][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of investment styles, particularly the rotation between growth and value styles, and how these cycles can create investment opportunities in different market conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Style Rotation - Style rotation occurs approximately every 3-5 years, with specific periods identified for growth and value styles: - 2016-2018 was a strong period for value style - 2019-2021 favored growth style - 2022-2024 is projected to favor value style - 2025 is expected to favor growth style [2] - Structural bull markets are common in A-shares, with only 2007 being a broad-based bull market where both large and small caps, as well as growth and value styles, saw significant gains [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of Growth and Value Styles - Growth style bull markets are characterized by high volatility, with significant price fluctuations. For instance, certain indices have doubled since May 2024, and the ChiNext index rose over 150% from May 2018 to March 2021 [4]. - Conversely, value style bull markets tend to exhibit more stable growth, resembling a slow bull market typical in European and American markets. This style requires patience and a long-term holding strategy to realize returns [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - When opportunities arise for both growth and value styles, the company considers a balanced investment approach, such as combining indices like CSI A500+ and CSI Dividend [6]. - Growth style investments are likened to offensive strategies (sword), while value style investments are seen as defensive (shield). The allocation between these styles is adjusted based on their valuation levels, with higher allocations to undervalued styles [6].