投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/12/3 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/1 | 2025/12/2 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 455. 7 | 453.8 | -1.90 | 成交情况: PTA:成本支撑,PTA缓慢去库存中,下游刚需偏稳, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1450. 4 | 1454. 2 | 3.81 | PTA行情小涨。而PTA仓单数量较多,PTA现货基差上涨 之力。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4380 | 1. 4410 | 0. 0030 | | | | CFR中国PX | 849 | 849 | 0 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 277 | 282 | 5 | | | | PTA主力期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices were low at the beginning of the week and high at the end, mainly due to the continued enthusiasm for gasoline blending in the market. The hype about gasoline blending continued to cool down, but from the supply - demand perspective, the South Korean GS plant has a later shutdown plan, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has a CDU maintenance plan in January, which may lead to a decline in PX load and an expected improvement in the PX supply side. The sentiment support for PX remained strong during the week [8]. - PTA prices followed the cost increase, mainly due to a slight reduction in inventory and the strength of PX. There were few changes in PTA plants this week. Honggang Petrochemical restarted, and Zhongtai Petrochemical increased its load. The average processing fee for the week was still below 200 yuan/ton. The downstream polyester start - up rate remained oscillating around 89%. The polyester factories' equity inventory was not high, and the rigid demand for PTA was good [8]. 2.2 Future Market Forecast - Crude oil: The biggest problem in the peaceful settlement of the Russia - Ukraine issue lies in territorial disputes, and the probability of short - term negotiation success is low. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate narrowly. PX: The domestic PX supply has entered a relatively stable stage. Recently, focus on the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. PTA: The delay in plant maintenance has accelerated short - term inventory reduction, but there are no other plant start - stop plans later, and the processing fee will remain low this year. Polyester: The market is transitioning to the off - season, short - term demand is generally stable, and there are positive news in the export market, but it needs time to verify. Weaving: The downstream new orders are weakening, and the坯布 inventory is gradually transitioning from destocking to slight inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to improve this year [11]. - Overall, PX will fluctuate at a high level, with an operating range of 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton; PTA will also fluctuate at a high level, with an operating range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **PX Futures**: The closing price of the PX main contract on November 28 was 6830 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 1.19%. The settlement price on November 28 was 6780 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 0.06% [16]. - **PX Spot**: From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was - 227 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6535.20 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a change of - 0.02% [19]. 3.1.2 PTA - **PTA Futures**: The closing price of the PTA main contract on November 28 was 4700 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 0.73%. The settlement price on November 28 was 4672 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of - 0.13% [22][23]. - **PTA Spot**: From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was - 40.40 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 584 US dollars/ton, up 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period, with a change of 0.01%. The average price of PTA spot in the East China market was 4627.8 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a change of 0.05% [26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - **Domestic PX Devices**: Many domestic PX plants have different operating loads. For example, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. operates at 90% load, and Yangzi Petrochemical operates at full load. The overall domestic PX plant load decreased slightly from 90.50% from November 17 - 21 to 88.92% from November 24 - 28, mainly due to the early maintenance of Zhonghua Quanzhou [30][34]. - **Asian Other PX Devices**: Some PX plants in Asia have experienced changes such as shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia restarted after a shutdown in early January, and GS Caltex in South Korea plans to shut down around mid - December [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Many PTA plants are in a state of shutdown or maintenance. For example, Yisheng Dalian's 225 - ton PTA plant has been shut down since August 8, and the restart time is undetermined. Recently, there have been many PTA plant maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped by 2.37% [37][38]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Although the net increase of international crude oil futures this week was about 1%, the market's expectation of an increase in global supply still suppressed oil prices. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 58.55 US dollars/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars/barrel from November 21. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.18 US dollars/barrel from November 21 [43][45]. - **Naphtha**: The demand for naphtha in Europe is weak, and the gasoline blending demand is not enough to support the price. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 561.78 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 67.81 US dollars/ton. The ethylene cracking weekly average price rebounded this week [50]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The short - process efficiency has expanded due to the hype of gasoline blending. The weekly average PXN was 265.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 2.24%. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 107 US dollars/ton [55]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee has remained low this year and is expected to improve next year. From November 24 - 28, the average spot processing fee of PTA this week was 209.11 yuan/ton, compared with 177.03 yuan/ton last week [59]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the social inventory of PTA was 3.871 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous week, with a month - on - month growth rate change of - 0.42%. The PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.03 days, and the polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.35 days [63][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The overall demand is not strong, which is negative for polyester product prices. The average market prices of polyester filament semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 0.76%, 0.19%, and 0.22% respectively compared with the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a decline of 0.02%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5680 - 5760 yuan/ton, and the average price this period was 5728.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period [69][72]. - **Weaving**: The domestic weaving market demand has significantly weakened, and the placement of foreign trade orders is relatively smooth. As of November 27, the opening rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang and Changxing remained stable, the circular knitting machine opening rate in Xiaoshao decreased by 1.19%, and the warp - knitting opening rates in Haining and Changshu remained stable [84][86].

Group 1: Main Views Weekly Summary - PX prices were low at the beginning of the week and high at the end due to continued market enthusiasm for gasoline blending. Supply-side expectations are positive as the South Korean GS plant has a later shutdown plan and Zhejiang Petrochemical has a CDU maintenance plan in January. - PTA prices followed the cost increase, with slight inventory reduction and strong PX as the main reasons. PTA plant changes were few this week, and the processing fee average was still below 200 yuan/ton. Downstream polyester开工 remained around 89%, and polyester factories' equity inventory was not high, with strong rigid demand for PTA [7]. Market Outlook Forecast - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly as the short-term probability of a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine issue is low. PX supply in China has entered a relatively stable phase, and the focus is on the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. PTA inventory is decreasing in the short term, but processing fees will remain low this year. Polyester demand is generally stable in the short term, and the export market has positive news but needs time to verify. The downstream weaving market has weak new orders, and inventory is gradually increasing, with no improvement expected this year. - Overall, PX will oscillate at a high level in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA will also oscillate at a high level in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. - Strategy recommendation: Stay on the sidelines [10]. Group 2: Price Situation PX Futures - The closing price of the PX main contract on November 28 was 6,830 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 1.19%. The settlement price on November 28 was 6,780 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 0.06%. - From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was -227 yuan/ton. The average domestic spot price of PX was 6,535.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of -0.02% [15][17]. PTA Futures - The closing price of the PTA main contract on November 28 was 4,700 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 0.73%. The settlement price on November 28 was 4,672 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of -0.13%. - The average weekly price of PTA in the Chinese market was 584 US dollars/ton, up 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of 0.01%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,627.8 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of 0.05% [21][24]. Group 3: Device Operation Status PX Device - Domestic PX device load decreased slightly due to the early maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou. From November 24 - 28, the load was 88.92%, compared with 90.50% from November 17 - 21. - Asian PX device operation status: Some devices in South Korea, Indonesia, and other regions have load changes and maintenance plans [33][31]. PTA Device - Many PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The weekly开工 rate decreased by 2.37%. Some devices such as Yisheng Dahua, Hainan Yisheng, and others have been shut down or are under maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined [36][37]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Cost - Crude oil: Although the international crude oil futures rose about 1% this week, the expectation of increased global supply still suppressed oil prices. WTI crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 58.55 US dollars/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars/barrel from November 21. Brent crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.18 US dollars/barrel from November 21. - Naphtha: European naphtha demand is weak, and the blending demand is insufficient to support prices. The average weekly price of naphtha CFR Japan was 561.78 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 67.81 US dollars/ton [42][44]. Supply - PX processing margin: The short-process efficiency has expanded due to gasoline blending speculation. The weekly average of PXN was 265.49 yuan/ton, a change of 2.24% from the previous period. PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 107 US dollars/ton. - PTA processing fee: The processing fee has remained low this year and is expected to improve next year. From November 24 - 28, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 209.11 yuan/ton. - Inventory: PTA inventory reduction provides bottom support for prices, but there may be negative feedback after the terminal actively reduces the load in January. As of November 28, PTA social inventory was 3.871 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous week [52][56][61]. Demand - Polyester: Overall demand is weak, which is negative for polyester product prices. The average market prices of polyester filament and staple fiber have declined to varying degrees. From November 24 - 28, the average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 60%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.19%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 71.73%. - Weaving: The domestic weaving market demand has significantly weakened, and foreign trade orders are relatively smooth. As of November 27, the opening rates of some weaving areas were stable or slightly decreased [67][72][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production despite the end of some planned maintenance and capacity recovery, driven by high gasoline profit margins and low pure benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry is performing well and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price, and new device startups are pressuring the price. The coal price increase does not provide strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 447.4 yuan/barrel on November 21, 2025, to 447.9 yuan/barrel on November 24, 2025, with a change of 0.5 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC spread increased from 1414.7 yuan/ton to 1425.1 yuan/ton, with a change of 10.37 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.4351 to 1.4378, with a change of 0.0027 [2]. - CFR China PX price increased from 824 to 826, with a change of 2; PX - naphtha spread increased from 262 to 264, with a change of 2 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4666 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton, with a change of 14 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4615 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 191 yuan/ton to 212 yuan/ton, with a change of 21 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee increased from 257 yuan/ton to 262 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA main contract basis increased from - 63 to - 49, with a change of 14; PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 117,192 to 117,828, with a change of 636 [2]. - MEG main contract futures price increased from 3808 yuan/ton to 3884 yuan/ton, with a change of 76 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from - 151.12 yuan/ton to - 151.31 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price increased from 3852 yuan/ton to 3890 yuan/ton, with a change of 38 yuan/ton; MEG main contract basis decreased from 35 to 33, with a change of - 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 87.39% [2]. - PTA start - up rate remained at 72.11% [2]. - MEG start - up rate increased from 60.14% to 60.33%, with a change of 0.19% [2]. - Polyester load remained at 89.19% [2]. Polyester Product Data - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6580 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, with a change of - 35 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 94 to 33, with a change of - 61 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6825 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from - 161 to - 187, with a change of - 26 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained at 7865 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 179 to 153, with a change of - 26 [2]. - Long - filament sales rate increased from 39% to 43%, with a change of 4% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6340 yuan/ton to 6350 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 204 to 188, with a change of - 16 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber sales rate increased from 31% to 65%, with a change of 34% [2]. - Semi - bright chip price increased from 5540 yuan/ton to 5545 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash flow decreased from - 46 to - 67, with a change of - 21 [2]. - Chip sales rate decreased from 75% to 60%, with a change of - 15% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon, having stopped for maintenance around November 17 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [4]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The production of drawing materials is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2010 to 2053, the South China spot price increased from 2005 to 2028, and the Northwest discounted price increased from 2568 to 2588. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in most prices, with the largest increase in the import profit, which rose by 64 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 730 on some days. The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6760, and the East China LL price remained at 7000 on some days and then decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 12017 to 11721. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in the主力期货 price by 23 and a decrease in the warehouse receipt by 114 [4]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 5900 on some days. The East China PP price decreased from 6340 to 6285, and the North China PP price decreased from 6315 to 6255. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the export profit showed some fluctuations. The daily change on November 24 showed a decrease in most prices and a 15 - point increase in the主力期货 price [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2450 to 2450 (with a 50 - point increase on November 24), and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 792 to 777. The East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC increased from 4520 to 4530. The basis of the high - end delivery product increased from - 90 to - 70 [4].

Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Cost Support - Cost support remains strong, with expectations of oversupply in oil from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The transmission of oil price changes to downstream industries is relatively mild due to low PTA processing fees [2][3] PX Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates have slightly decreased to 86.8%, a drop of 3 percentage points. Asian PX operating rates are at 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. Several PX facilities in Asia are undergoing maintenance, tightening the PX spot market supply. The overall PX supply-demand balance is improving, supporting PTA costs [6] Inventory Pressure - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock for 13-14 days. The overall inventory level is lower than in the past two years, indicating limited inventory pressure [8] PTA and Polyester Production - By 2025, PTA production capacity is expected to reach 91.715 million tons, with a growth rate of 9.5%. The polyester industry is projected to maintain a high average operating rate of 88.29%, providing rigid demand support for PTA. However, weak weaving orders may lead to reduced purchasing intentions among polyester companies [11][13] Market Dynamics - The PTA market is currently facing a balance between cost support and demand suppression, with prices expected to fluctuate between 4500 and 4900 yuan per ton [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Group 1: Cost Support - The oil supply surplus is expected to be strong from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The low PTA processing fee results in a mild transmission of oil price changes to downstream industries [2] - The domestic PX operating rate has slightly decreased to 86.8%, down 3 percentage points week-on-week, while the Asian PX operating rate is at 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. This decline in operating rates is due to maintenance activities, leading to tight PX spot market supply [4] Group 2: Inventory Pressure - The total PTA production capacity is projected to reach 91.715 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 9.5%. Recent new capacities have led to a relatively loose spot liquidity [5] - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock for 13-14 days. The overall inventory level is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The PTA industry operating rate has adjusted to 75.7%, while the polyester industry operating rate is at 90.5%. The overall supply-demand dynamics for PTA remain stable [7] - The polyester industry is expected to exceed 90 million tons in total production by 2025, with an average operating rate of 88.29%. However, the demand for polyester is showing signs of weakness, leading to a forecasted trading range for PTA contracts between 4500 and 4900 yuan/ton [8]

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Group 1: Cost Support - The oil supply surplus is expected to persist from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The transmission of oil prices to the downstream industry is relatively mild due to low PTA processing fees [2] - Domestic PX operating rates have slightly decreased to 86.8% as of November 14, down 3 percentage points week-on-week, while Asian PX operating rates fell to 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. This decline is due to maintenance at several PX facilities in Asia, tightening PX spot market supply [2] - The PX market has seen a strong performance, with PXN absolute prices rising to $257 per ton, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics [2] Group 2: Inventory Pressure - The PTA production capacity is expected to reach 91.715 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 9.5%. Recent new capacities have led to a relatively loose spot liquidity [3] - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock days at 13-14 days [3] - The recent removal of BIS certification for PTA and polyester products in India may accelerate inventory reduction if export demand materializes [3] Group 3: Polyester Production - The domestic polyester industry is projected to exceed 90 million tons in total production by 2025, with an expected average operating rate of 88.29%, providing rigid demand support for PTA [4] - Despite a high operating rate, the polyester industry has seen a decline in raw material stock levels and a weakening order atmosphere in the weaving sector [4] - The market is expected to face a balance between cost support and demand suppression, with PTA futures prices projected to fluctuate between 4500 and 4900 yuan per ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].