Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; non-tax revenue was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.5 percentage points [1] - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, slowing by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with tax revenue growth dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% and non-tax revenue turning negative at -2.2% [2] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points [1] - In May, general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slowing by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in infrastructure spending, which fell by 7.7% [4] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education and health spending grew by 6.7% and 3.9%, respectively [4] Group 3: Economic Analysis - The slowdown in revenue is attributed to factors such as the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), the unsustainable high growth of non-tax revenue, and weakened land transfer income [1] - The analysis indicates that the increase in value-added tax revenue reflects a trend of economic recovery, supported by robust growth in the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, especially in light of the revenue slowdown and strong expenditure performance in the first four months [5]

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced and loose, with DR001 falling below the 1.4% policy rate, and state-owned banks' net financing reaching a year-high of 4.55 trillion yuan [1][11][27] - Historical trends indicate that at the end of June, funding rates typically rise, but the central bank often increases liquidity support, especially during a month with significant fiscal spending [21][27] - Concerns for the upcoming cross-quarter period include a high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit exceeding 4 trillion yuan, and a recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks, which may lead to deposit outflows [26][27] Group 2 - Next week, the market will see over 10 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, along with the continuation of MLF operations, indicating ongoing liquidity support from the central bank [2][33] - Government bond net payments are expected to increase significantly, with a net payment of 7.498 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial fiscal activity [4][31] - The interbank certificate of deposit maturity will be 11.092 trillion yuan, which remains substantial, and attention will be paid to the pressure of renewing these deposits as the quarter-end approaches [6][31] Group 3 - The average daily net financing from state-owned banks has been rising, with a significant increase noted this week, indicating a robust liquidity position [5][27] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit remains stable, with no significant upward pressure on rates, suggesting a controlled liquidity environment [6][27] - The second quarter has seen an acceleration in fiscal bond issuance, which is expected to provide additional liquidity support as the quarter-end approaches [27][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue turned negative again, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure dropped significantly. The sustainability of fiscal stimulus after June needs to be observed, and it may be necessary to increase the budget to expand the deficit [1][4]. Summary by Catalog Fiscal Revenue - **General Fiscal Revenue**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was -1.2%, turning negative again (April: 2.7%). From January to May, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was -1.3% [1][8]. - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was 0.1% (April: 1.9%), tax revenue was 0.6% (April: 1.9%), and non-tax revenue was -2.2% (April: 1.7%). Central revenue grew by 0.4% year-on-year, while local revenue decreased by 0.1% [1][10]. - **Tax Revenue Structure**: In May, tax revenue increased by 0.56% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 6.1% (April: 0.9%), and personal income tax increased by 12.3% (April: 9.0%). Corporate income tax increased by only 0.02% (April: 3.97%), indicating pressure on corporate profit growth. Real estate-related taxes decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening [2][12]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund revenue was -8.1% (April: 8.1%), turning negative again. Without incremental policies, it is difficult to significantly improve government fund budget revenue in the short term [2][14]. Fiscal Expenditure - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 2.6% (April: 5.8%), with the growth rate declining [3][16]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund expenditure was 8.8% (April: 44.7%), showing a significant decline [3][16]. - **Expenditure Structure**: In May, infrastructure-related fiscal expenditures contracted overall, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.69% (April: 2.15%). Expenditures on social security, science and technology, and culture and tourism had relatively high growth rates [3][16]. Fiscal Deficit - As of May, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 3.30 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative broad deficit ratio is 2.4%, higher than most of the same periods in the past five years and close to 2022. It is necessary to observe whether fiscal expenditure in June can maintain a high intensity [4][21]. Policy Outlook - To maintain the pace of fiscal stimulus, it may be necessary to increase the budget to expand the deficit. After the Politburo meeting on April 25, monetary policy was implemented first, but incremental fiscal policies have not been introduced. Incremental fiscal policies are expected in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July and policy implementation in August and September [4][22].

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 5 月财政收入增速小幅回踩。公共财政收入同比、税收收入同比分别回落至 0.1% （前值 1.9% ）、 0.6% （前值 1.9% ），但 仍位于正值区间，强于一季度表现。非税收入同比 -2.2% ，为 2024 年以来首次转负。应与财政收入对非税收入的依赖有所减轻有关， 今年预算对非税收入增长目标有明显下调 （目标增速 -14.2% ）。前 5 个月公共财政收入累计同比 -0.3% ，距离年初目标差值（ 0.37 个百分点）较前期有所收窄。 第二， 分税种来看，国内增值税表现较好，累计同比 2.4% ，或与工业企业利润增速好转有关；个人所得税表现较好，累计同比涨幅 扩大至 8.2% （去年年度为 -1.7% ），与低基数、汇算清缴、二手房交易较为活跃、股市年内表现较好背景下部分股东减持等因素有 关。消费税表现中性，和今年较高的社零增速有一定直观上的反差，主要是消费税中烟酒车油等占比较高，其中前两者增速不快；汽车 零售辆增速较快，但由于降价，零售额增速并不快。税收收入的主要拖累项一是外贸环节相关税种， ...

2025.06. 21 本文字数：1590，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 6月20日，财政部公布2025年1—5月财政收支情况，总体看财政收入平稳，财政支出保持一定扩张 力度，以落实积极财政政策，扩大总需求，推动经济平稳运行。 从财政收入端来看，财政部数据显示，1—5月，全国一般公共预算收入96623亿元，同比下降 0.3%。这一降幅较前4个月（-0.4%）略微缩窄。全国政府性基金预算收入15483亿元，同比下降 6.9%。这一降幅较前4个月（-6.7%）略微扩大。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，且以前者为主。税收收入又被称之为经济"晴雨 表"。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月全国一般公共预算收入中，全国税收收入79156亿元，同比下降 1.6%，这一降幅较前4个月（-2.1%）有小幅缩窄。 导致今年以来税收收入下滑有多重因素。首先，部分企业经营困难，利润下滑，导致第二大税种企业 所得税收入下滑。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月企业所得税收入（21826亿元）同比下降2.5%。不过今年以来，规模 以上工业企业利润总额同比增速由负转正，企业所得税收入降幅持续缩窄。 其次，房地产市场 ...

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, which is a slight improvement from the previous four months' decline of 0.4% [1] - Government fund budget revenue was 15,483 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, slightly worsening from the previous four months' decline of 6.7% [1] Tax Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue, which is a key economic indicator, accounted for 79,156 billion yuan of the general public budget revenue, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, an improvement from the previous four months' decline of 2.1% [1] - Corporate income tax revenue was 21,826 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing as profits of large industrial enterprises have turned positive [1][2] Impact of Real Estate and Trade - The real estate market remains sluggish, leading to significant declines in related tax revenues, such as deed tax and land value-added tax, which experienced double-digit decreases [2] - Complex foreign trade conditions, including trade wars, have negatively impacted fiscal revenue, with notable declines in import VAT, consumption tax, and tariffs [2] Price Levels and Tax Base - Low price levels have compressed nominal fiscal revenue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% in May 2025, affecting tax revenue growth based on nominal value [3] - Domestic VAT revenue was 30,850 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [3] Sector-Specific Tax Revenue Growth - Despite overall tax revenue challenges, certain sectors showed strong performance, with equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 28.8% and computer communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [4] - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, while the information transmission and software services sector grew by 10% [4] Non-Tax Revenue and Budget Adjustments - Non-tax revenue reached 17,467 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by asset activation [5] - Local government fund budget revenue was 13,635 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer revenue declining by 11.9% [6] Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - To counteract declining tax revenue, the government has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, accelerating bond issuance to support expenditure [6] - General public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate [7] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.2%, and education expenditures increased by 6.7%, both exceeding the average expenditure growth rate [7]

分析师Giuseppe Dellamotta评欧元区零售销售数据：欧元区零售销售保持强劲势头。财政支出的增加和 欧洲央行的降息应该会让这种势头得以保持。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The net financing of government bonds in May was nearly 1.5 trillion yuan, which is expected to continue to strongly support fiscal expenditure. As of the 21st week (May 19 - May 25), the cumulative net financing of government bonds reached 6.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.9 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds. The cumulative generalized deficit was 4.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.7%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6]. Summary by Related Categories Treasury Bonds - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 243.5 billion yuan, and 0 yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%, exceeding the same period in the past five years. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. In 2025, the central deficit is 4.86 trillion yuan, and special treasury bonds of 1.8 trillion yuan are arranged: 1.3 trillion yuan is for ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, of which 30 billion yuan is for consumer goods trade - in; 500 billion yuan is for special treasury bonds to supplement the capital of state - owned large - scale banks [7]. Local Bonds - The net financing of local bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 142.6 billion yuan, and 137.4 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.4 trillion yuan [9]. New General Bonds - The net financing of new general bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 5.5 billion yuan, and 23.6 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 327.4 billion yuan, with a progress of 40.9%, exceeding the same period last year. The local deficit in 2025 is 800 billion yuan [2][12]. New Special Bonds - The net financing of new special bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 107.6 billion yuan, and 156 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 1.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 33.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 242.4 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 100.8 billion yuan have been issued. As of May 25, 2025, 25 provinces and cities such as Guangdong and Anhui have successively announced projects to acquire existing idle land, covering 4,071 parcels of land with a capital scale of about 444.3 billion yuan [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bonds - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 25.1 billion yuan, and 5 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81% [2][30]. Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was - 15.9 billion yuan, and is expected to be - 15.2 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][32].

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's fiscal revenue showed positive growth driven by improved tax revenue and a low base effect, supporting increased expenditure [1][3] Revenue Summary - In April, the general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, a rise of 1.6 percentage points from March, primarily due to a recovery in tax revenue [1][3] - Tax revenue in April grew by 1.9%, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 2.2%, while non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.7% [4][5] - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw notable declines in growth rates compared to the previous month, while personal income tax surged by 9.0% due to a low base effect [4][5] Expenditure Summary - In April, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than March's growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth [1][5] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April reached 31.5% of the annual budget, surpassing the average of the past five years [6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures grew by 2.2% in April, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending [7] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in April rose by 8.1%, driven by positive growth in land transfer fees, which increased from a decline of 16.5% in March to 4.3% [8] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than March's 27.9%, primarily due to the issuance of new special bonds and a low base effect [9]

财政部日前公布了2025年1至4月的财政收支情况。从收入和支出两端看，4月财政收入继续改善，财政 支出节奏加快，各级财政部门持续加大对惠民生、促消费、增后劲的支持力度。 财政部公布的数据显示，1至4月，全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百 分点。其中，税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点。值得一提的是，税收收入在4 月份增长了1.9%，月度增幅由负转正。 财政支出方面，东方金诚研报认为，4月一般公共预算支出同比增长5.8%，增速较3月加快0.1个百分点，大幅高于 当月一般公共预算收入增速，显示财政支出端延续稳增长取向。从支出进度来看，1至4月一般公共预算支出完成 全年预算的31.5%，高于过去五年同期平均水平30.7%。 从结构上看，4月基建类四项支出合计同比增长2.2%，增速较上月加快1.7个百分点，其中，城乡社区事务、交通 运输支出增速明显加快，农林水事务、节能环保支出增速有所放缓。民生类支出中，4月社会保障、科技、卫生健 康支出增速加快，其中，社会保障支出同比增速从上月的9.0%进一步提速至9.6%，或说明稳就业政策力度加大 ...