据华尔街见闻此前文章，今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，远超黄金60%涨幅，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。美联储降 息预期、供应短缺，以及因被列入美国"关键矿产"清单引发的囤积效应等因素，共同推升白银价格走高。 据The Market Ear分析，尽管白银作为高贝塔资产出现了挤仓式上涨，但黄金走势严重滞后。目前金价正企稳于21日均线上方的趋势线上，形成所 谓"牛旗"形态，这通常是向高点发起冲击前的前兆。 衍生品市场的定价差异为黄金提供了战术性买入机会。交易员恐慌性买入白银看涨期权导致其波动率飙升，使得金银波动率价差短期内大幅走 阔。从资金流向看，本轮牛市的投资流入量仍低于过往周期，且新兴市场央行增持空间依然巨大。叠加年底至明年初通常是黄金历史上最强的季 节性上涨窗口，金价后续上涨动能有望持续。 波动率价差与技术面蓄势 白银通常被视为贵金属板块中的高贝塔（High Beta）资产，近期出现的剧烈挤仓行情并未完全带动黄金，导致黄金表现明显滞后。市场分析认 为，这种背离或许意味着黄金即将迎来补涨时刻。 技术面上，黄金价格目前在21日移动平均线之上保持了良好的上升趋势。The Market E ...

文 | 万联万象 据彭博经济研究预测，市场普遍预期联储将在此前降息的基础上，再次下调利率25个基点。这场会议的 关键看点，除了降息本身，还有主席鲍威尔如何应对内部成员的分歧——超过半数委员曾倾向于按兵不 动。 鲍威尔的每一次表态，都将关系到数万亿美元资产价格的走向。 01 美联储内部博弈 美联储利率决议公布前十几个小时，市场屏息凝神，白银按捺不住提前飙涨，黄金价格在4200美元/盎 司附近徘徊，港股恒生指数在窄幅区间内震荡，投资者等待着美联储发出的每一个微妙信号。 距离美联储决定公布进入以小时计的倒数区间，全球市场已经按下了暂停键。 美联储内部罕见的分歧正在考验鲍威尔的领导力。12名投票委员中，至少有5人倾向于暂停进一步降 息，而少数成员则主张更大规模的宽松措施。 如果本次决议出现3张以上反对票，这将创下自2019年以来首次先例，也是1990年以来的第九次此类事 件。 鲍威尔面临的不仅是政策决策，更是一场政治博弈。他必须平衡各方利益，以最小异议票数推动降息， 同时确保会议成果不被市场解读为政策混乱的信号。 更复杂的背景是，这位美联储主席的任期将于2026年年中结束。政治压力从未如此之大——特朗普政府 曾于20 ...

今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，远超黄金60%涨幅，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。美联储降息预期、供应短缺，以及因被列 入美国"关键矿产"清单引发的囤积效应等因素，共同推升白银价格走高。 受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国关键矿产清单等多重因素推动，白银价格周二强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。 今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。 纽约期货价格上涨4.4%，至每盎司60.97美元，盘中一度触及每盎司61.06美元的高点；现货价格上涨3.9%，至每盎司60.46美元，盘中一度触及每盎 司60.50美元。 作为对比，尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致 金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。 引发本轮行情的直接导火索是美联储的货币政策会议。市场普遍押注美联储将在本周三结束的会议上宣布降息25个基点。更为关键的结构性驱动力来自 于供应端的剧烈收缩。除了传统的产需缺口外，美国地质调查局上个月将白银列入"关键矿产"清单，这一举措加剧了市场对供应稳定的担忧，引发囤货 潮。 降息预期叠加供应紧张 ...

12月9日，现货白银日内涨幅扩大至2%，报59.34美元/盎司，刷新历史新高。 回顾上周五，白银价格盘中创下历史新高，并实现连续第二周上涨，ETF的强劲流入为这轮火热涨势注入了更多动力。 具体来看，上周五现货白银一度上涨3.9%，创下每盎司59.33美元的历史新高。 (白银突破59美元大关，创下历史新高) 白银ETF的资金流入成为推动本轮涨势的关键因素。截至上周四数据，仅仅四个交易日，白银ETF的资金流入总量就已创下7月以来单周最高纪 录。Pepperstone研究策略师Dilin Wu表示： 这些资金流动可以迅速放大价格波动，并引发短期空头挤压。 上周五黄金走势则出现分化，日内冲高1%后转跌。这使得金银比价回落至2024年5月低点以下，约为72倍。 （金银比回落至72倍） Vantage Markets分析师Hebe Chen表示： 白银的超额涨势表明它不再是黄金安静的配角。市场正在意识到结构性稀缺和快速增长的工业需求，而不仅仅是避险需求。 供需失衡支撑白银，华尔街看好明年价格 白银涨势在过去两个月加速，部分原因是伦敦市场出现历史性挤压。 虽然随着更多金属运往这个全球最大的白银交易中心，这一紧张局面在近几周 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-05 美国就业数据趋弱 哈塞特再次放鸽 市场分析 就业市场方面，美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为2022年9月以来的最低水平。另据美国私 人数据提供商Revelio Labs，美国11月非农就业减少9000个，同时10月数据下修至减少1.55万个。另外，美国挑战 者企业11月裁员7.1万人，同比增24%，今年累计裁员人数攀升至117万。降息节奏方面，美国 白宫国家经济委员 会主任哈塞特表示，实际工资增长现在高于通胀；可能会在下一次美联储会议上看到降息，将降息25个基点左右。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-04，沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于953.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.34%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于954.50元/克，收于958.46元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.53%。 2025-12-04，沪银主力合约开于13691.00元/千克，收于13424.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-1.16%。当日成交 量为2280887手，持仓量为452403手。昨日夜盘沪银主 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月3日电（吴郑思）国际市场贵金属价格周二（12月2日）高位温和调整，但"银强金 弱"的格局仍在延续。 截至当天收盘时，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价下跌26.3美元，收于 每盎司4238.7美元，跌幅为0.62%。 分析来看，当天美元指数在盘中多数时段内小幅走稳，给黄金带来些许获利回吐压力。而白银则继续受 益于供应收紧的基本面现实。 近期贵金属尽管整体维持强势，但高位调整压力也开始显现。盘面上看，2日亚洲交易时段，国际市场 贵金属价格曾显著回调，现货黄金一度跌至4200美元关口以下，现货白银也回落至57美元／盎司下方。 但欧美交易时段，金银价格整体回升。 不过，市场分析人士表示，在美联储12月仍将降息的预期之下，金价短时因获利了结的调整或幅度有 限。Zaner Metals的高级金属策略师表示，在美联储降息预期稳固的背景下，金价可能正处于一个最终 将向上突破的形态中，看好金价在新年伊始达到5000美元。 德国商业银行的观点相对谨慎，但也预计未来一年金价将升至每盎司4400美元。 消息面上，世界黄金协会（WGC)的数据显示，10月份各国央行购买了53 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-27 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-11-26，Au2602合约上，多头较前一日变化7552手，空头则是变化2687手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 453331手，较前一交易日变化7.60%。在沪银方面，在Ag2602合约上，多头变动14304手，空头变动9941手。白银 合约上个交易日总成交量2051420手，较前一交易日变化15.48%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为1,040.86吨，较前一交易日持平。白银ETF持仓为15,582吨，较前一交易日增 加70吨。 褐皮书揭示美国经济前景基本维稳 市场分析 美联储发布褐皮书显示，根据美联储12个辖区中的大部分报告，自上次报告以来，经济活动基本持平；不过有2个 辖区指出经济小幅下滑，1个辖区报告经济小幅增长；整体看前景基本未变，部分人士指出未来几个月经济活动放 缓的风险加大。就业市场看，美国上周初请失业金人数减少6000人至21.6万人，为4月中旬以来新低，低于预期值 22.5万人。此前一周的续申请失业金人数小幅上升至196万人。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-26，沪金主 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-25 美联储官员再放鸽 支撑贵金属价格 市场分析 降息节奏方面，美联储理事沃勒表示，最新数据显示劳动力市场依然疲软，因此他主张在12月进行降息；沃勒指 出，12月会议后将密集发布的延迟经济报告，可能让1月的决定"更棘手"。美国旧金山联储主席、2027年FOMC票 委戴利表示，她支持在下个月降息，因为她认为就业市场突然恶化的可能性比通胀骤然上升更大，也更难以控制。 地缘方面，美国和乌克兰完成一份新的19点和平协议草案，但领土安排、乌克兰与北约及俄美关系等最敏感议题 仍留待特朗普与泽连斯基决定；俄方表示，欧洲就结束乌克兰危机所提出的和平方案对俄方不具建设性，也不符 合俄方利益。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-24，沪金主力合约开于933.98元/克，收于930.32元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.36%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于935.60元/克，收于938.68元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.90%。 2025-11-24，沪银主力合约开于11715.00元/千克，收于11808.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.10% ...

Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant price surge, outperforming gold, with the London spot silver price surpassing $53 per ounce and an annual increase of over 85% as of November 12, 2025, driven by multiple favorable factors [3] Group 1: Silver's Attributes and Price Drivers - Silver's price is influenced by its financial and commodity attributes, with the gold-silver ratio being a key indicator. Historically, this ratio fluctuates between 40 and 127, with a central value around 68. As of April 2025, the ratio reached a high of 105, indicating potential for silver price appreciation as it reverts to historical averages [4] - The commodity attribute of silver is crucial, as it is essential in high-tech manufacturing sectors like electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive industries. Industrial applications account for nearly 60% of total silver demand, with the photovoltaic sector alone representing about 17% [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The recent strong performance of silver is attributed to its three attributes working in concert. A weaker US dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased the appeal of silver as a dollar-denominated asset. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and US debt issues have enhanced the allure of precious metals as safe-haven assets [5] - For investors, understanding silver's unique market characteristics and investment channels is essential. Investment methods include virtual investments (like silver ETFs and futures) and physical investments (such as silver bars and coins). Silver is likened to a "small-cap stock" in the precious metals sector, with its lower market capitalization making it more sensitive to capital inflows [6][7] Group 3: Investment Outlook - In the current market environment, silver can be viewed as an "enhanced" alternative to gold, benefiting from both gold's upward momentum and additional growth from industrial demand and the renewable energy revolution. As global economic expectations improve, silver is positioned to potentially outperform gold due to its stronger commodity attributes [7] - It is advisable for investors to consider including silver in their diversified portfolios, employing a strategy of gradual accumulation and monitoring the gold-silver ratio to optimize investment returns [7]