证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2026 年 01 月 04 日 开门红 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 一 周 回 顾 展 望 告 联系人 ⚫ 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 ⚫ 排除经济下行风险后，一个没有重大下行风 ...

A-share Market Insights - The market is expected to transition from "consolidation" to "spring rally" as the year-end approaches, with high-quality A-share assets offering attractive value globally [1][2] - Key investment directions include: 1) long-term opportunities in technology growth assets, 2) cyclical sectors with strong pricing power driven by supply-demand imbalances, and 3) blue-chip assets favored by long-term institutional investors [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The influx of southbound capital is accelerating, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong market [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions is likely to boost market risk appetite, while the anticipated December interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve will enhance global liquidity, benefiting Hong Kong stocks [2] US Market Insights - Despite stable earnings projections for US stocks in 2025, valuation and market concentration have returned to historical highs, indicating potential for increased volatility [2] - Earnings growth in 2026 is expected to continue, driven by sustained AI demand, reduced tariff risks, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Investment strategies may focus on two main themes: 1) ongoing narratives in technology stocks, particularly in AI, and 2) recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors, especially in midstream manufacturing and essential consumer goods [2] Domestic Bond Market Insights - The domestic bond market is entering a phase characterized by "weak economic recovery, stable yet easing policies, and central bank caution against excessive moves" [3] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable interest rates will limit the downward movement of long-term rates, leading to a range-bound market [3] - Investors are advised to shift focus from capital gains to coupon income and liquidity management, while closely monitoring potential signals from the central bank regarding long-term yield guidance [3] Commodity Market Insights - The ongoing anti-involution policies warrant attention to the actual implementation of capacity reduction measures [4] - Oil prices are under short-term pressure due to geopolitical tensions easing and OPEC+ shifting towards supply expansion [4] - Industrial metals are expected to see demand recovery driven by improved global economic growth forecasts, with supply-side disruptions likely to reshape the supply-demand landscape [4] - Gold's monetary attributes may continue to be favorable amid ongoing government leverage, particularly in the US, where long-term deficit rates are challenging to reduce [4]

Group 1 - The A500ETF Southern (159352) experienced a slight decline of 0.32% with a trading volume of 6.157 billion yuan as of the midday on December 31 [1] - The fund saw a net subscription of 134 million yuan yesterday, with a net inflow of 4.4 billion yuan over the past five days, and a total net subscription of 15.2 billion yuan over the past ten days [1] - The fund's scale increased from 22.642 billion yuan to 46.773 billion yuan over the year, marking a growth of 24.1 billion yuan or 106.58% [1] Group 2 - According to Zheshang Securities, the market focus may shift towards policy expectations and industry trends for the coming year, with a potential active performance in small and mid-cap growth style thematic investments [1] - Western Securities anticipates that the appreciation of the yuan will accelerate the repatriation of cross-border capital, reinforcing the trend of yuan appreciation, driven by China's strong industrial strength and export competitiveness [1] - Debon Securities maintains a positive outlook on the slow bull market, emphasizing the importance of industry catalysts and noting that the market liquidity environment remains loose [1] Group 3 - The A500ETF Southern closely tracks the CSI A500 Index, which covers a broader range of industries compared to traditional indices like the CSI 300, including more leaders in emerging sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [1] - Investors can utilize the A500ETF Southern and its linked funds (Class A 022434; Class C 022435) for a streamlined investment approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current A-share market rally is primarily driven by liquidity, with expectations of fluctuations in early 2026 due to concentrated inflows into the CSI A500 ETF and other factors. However, favorable conditions for the spring market remain intact, suggesting a focus on thematic opportunities rather than traditional cyclical plays [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market has shown a significant liquidity-driven rally, with the CSI A500 ETF experiencing concentrated inflows, indicating a rapid influx of new capital [2][5]. - Factors supporting the spring market include: 1. Loose market liquidity, with private equity firms increasing purchases and insurance companies potentially reallocating to A-shares due to high premium growth [5]. 2. A continuous time window supporting risk appetite, highlighted by key events such as the Spring Festival in February, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Themes - The article suggests a focus on "non-main battlefield" spring themes, where opportunities lie in thematic investments rather than traditional cyclical sectors like AI and beta plays, which are currently limited [6][7]. - Thematic rotations are expected in spring, including: 1. Industrial themes (e.g., commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion). 2. Funding themes (e.g., from CSI A500 to insurance allocations). 3. Policy themes (e.g., Hainan, service consumption) [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook remains bullish, with a two-phase bull market anticipated: the first phase being a structural bull market in technology, currently at a high level, and the second phase expected in the second half of 2026, driven by fundamental improvements and increased asset allocation towards equities [7][9]. - The spring market is characterized by a lack of capital scarcity and favorable time windows, suggesting widespread profit-making opportunities across various themes [6][9].

你知道吗？ 就在过去短短四个月里，有一股"神秘"的资金以每月2500亿的速度，疯狂涌入A股。 不是外资，也不是游资，而是一种很多普通投资者以前不 太在意的工具，ETF。 到12月26日，它的总规模已经像坐火箭一样，冲破了6万亿元大关。 这个数字意味着，它已经悄无声息地超越了那些由明星基金经理 掌舵的主动型基金，成为了A股里块头最大的机构投资者。 很多人还没反应过来，市场的游戏规则，其实已经变了。 这股资金的洪流并不是突然出现的。 我们把时间拉回到2020年，那时候整个ETF市场的规模才刚突破1万亿元。 用了整整十六年，它才走到这个节点。 但 从那以后，一切都加速了。 万亿到两万亿，只用了三年。 而从五万亿冲到六万亿，仅仅花了四个月。 这种膨胀速度，在以前的金融市场里几乎不敢想象。 推动这一切的力量是多方面的。 监管层这几年一直在鼓励长线资金入市，ETF的审批通道变得前所未有的顺畅。 但更深层的原因，恐怕还是投资者自己用 脚投了票。 越来越多的人发现，费尽心思去挑选个股、追逐热点，结果可能还跑不赢简单的指数。 于是，无论是手握重金的保险机构，还是普通的散户， 都开始把目光投向这种透明、成本低、像"购物车"一样打 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a "cross-year + spring" rally, driven by significant institutional investment in A500 ETF and other broad-based products, which brings stable incremental capital to the market. The continuous appreciation of the offshore RMB is expected to attract foreign capital back to the Chinese market, further improving the liquidity situation [1][2][21]. Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Major institutional investors are increasing their holdings in A500 ETF, contributing to stable incremental capital in the market. Despite the large net subscriptions of A500 ETF potentially being influenced by quarter-end dynamics, the impact on liquidity is considered limited. Following the surge in A500 subscriptions, financing capital has also seen accelerated net inflows [2][6][21]. - In the first four trading days, financing capital saw a net inflow of 413.4 billion yuan, while new equity public funds increased by 100.4 million units, up by 31.9 million units from the previous period. The net inflow from ETF subscriptions reached 330.5 billion yuan [4][42][51]. Sector and Industry Focus - The market is likely to focus on blue-chip indices represented by the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with an emphasis on cyclical sectors. Key sectors to watch include industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation, as well as the new energy industry chain and semiconductor sectors [2][7][22]. - Recent price increases have been concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, and new energy. For instance, platinum prices rose by 32.92%, silver by 14.38%, and nickel by 9.25% due to global liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions [22][40]. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, attributed to the offshore RMB breaking the 7.0 mark, creating a 15-month high, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which has led to improved market liquidity. The central bank's commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy has also stabilized market expectations regarding future liquidity [3][28]. - The three major indices have broken through and stabilized above the 60-day moving average, forming a bullish arrangement, providing an opportunity for positioning ahead of the cross-year rally [3][28]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing net inflow into A500 ETF reinforces a structural market rally, with significant capital flowing into high-weighted industries such as electronics, power equipment, and banking, which collectively account for over 45% of the index weight [12][17]. - The anticipated launch of options for A500 ETF in 2026 is expected to attract more capital, as historical data suggests that once an ETF is selected as an options underlying, its shares typically see a 40% to 60% increase in the short term [15][21]. Conclusion - The current market is gradually accumulating upward momentum, with a sustained "cross-year + spring" rally expected to continue. The focus remains on the inflow of incremental capital, the performance of cyclical sectors, and the potential for foreign capital to return to the Chinese market [6][26][21].

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 华龙证券认为，金属景气度有望维持。铜中期的供应偏紧，市场普遍预期2026年前后，精炼铜将出现供 需关系拐点，随后转入紧缺。需求方面，美国2026年经济增速预期良好，美联储当前"预防性降息"的思 路为软着陆提供多一层保障。在供需关系趋势性转折的节点上，供给提供支撑，需求决定弹性，看好 2026年以铜、铝为代表的工业金属表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证工业有色金属主题指数前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、北方稀 土、中国铝业、云铝股份、兴业银锡、华友钴业、铜陵有色、江西铜业、神火股份、西部矿业，前十大 权重股合计占比54.56%。 工业有色ETF（560860）紧密跟踪中证工业有色金属主题指数，覆盖铜、铝、稀土等战略资源龙头，场 外投资者可通过联接（A类：018489；C类：018490）布局顺周期与政策红利共振机遇。 2025年12月26日盘中，有色金属板块涨幅居前，截至 13:53，中证工业有色金属主题指数(H11059)强势 上涨3.94%，成分股江西铜业10cm涨停，金诚信上涨8.76%，中国铝业上涨7.57%，铜陵有色、云南铜业 等个股跟涨。工业有色E ...

首席联合电话会-消费专场 20251225 摘要 国补政策收紧，补贴品类聚焦于黑白电等核心品类，对美的、海尔、 TCL 电子和海信视像等企业形成支撑，但需关注海信家电和格力电器等 竞争激烈品牌，一季度后或有更佳投资时机。 宠物行业保持高单位数增长，线上渠道增长显著，但产品创新进入瓶颈 期。头部品牌增长高于行业平均水平，小品牌生存承压，行业集中度提 升。人民币升值对出口企业有汇率损失，但影响可控。 中国东方教育受益于疫后扩张和国家对就业的重视，招生人数双位数增 长，新培训项目增长迅速。公司专注职业教育，就业率高，长期看具备 竞争优势，并积极拓展新兴领域业务。 中国东方教育积极布局"一带一路"项目，预期未来几年将显著提升业 绩，当前估值较低，分红率高，预计明年业绩可达 10 亿元，未来三年 复合利润增长率预计为 15%-20%。 医药行业关注小核酸产业链，诺华英克司兰进入医保但产能不足，利好 国内供应链企业。建议关注符合 FDA 审计标准并进入跨国公司供应链的 企业，如联化科技、辰大药业等。 Q&A 2026 年家电行业以旧换新政策有哪些变化？ 2026 年家电行业以旧换新政策将更加聚焦于传统大家电品类，如彩电、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal moment for the A-share market, transitioning from liquidity-driven growth to profit-driven growth, with a focus on domestic demand recovery and technological self-reliance as the main investment themes [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The previous growth model reliant on real estate and infrastructure credit expansion has diminished, with government spending becoming the core marginal force driving total demand fluctuations since 2022 [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is set to initiate a positive policy tone, with expected fiscal spending expansion and infrastructure projects boosting investment, particularly in infrastructure, which will counterbalance export decline and promote domestic demand recovery [4]. - The year 2026 coincides with the U.S. midterm elections, historically leading to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S., which may resonate with China's economic policies and boost global demand for industrial metals and commodities [4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Price increases are anticipated to be a dominant theme from Q4 2025 to 2026, reflecting both the recovery in demand and the cumulative effects of global monetary expansion since 2020 [5]. - The purchasing power of fiat currencies has significantly declined since 2020, leading to potential price surges in products experiencing supply-demand gaps [5]. - The A-share market is currently transitioning from a liquidity-driven phase to a profit-driven phase, with PPI recovery being a key variable indicating substantial improvement in corporate profits, particularly in cyclical sectors [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies for the upcoming year should focus on the dual themes of domestic demand recovery and technological self-reliance, particularly in the domestic computing power industry, which is expected to accelerate commercialization and market share growth [7]. - The recovery of the consumer services sector is anticipated to be driven by multiple factors, including policy support and structural trends such as aging populations and the rise of younger consumer groups [7]. - Concerns regarding the valuation levels of the technology sector are deemed premature, with the belief that the current AI bubble is still manageable, suggesting that technology will remain a primary market theme in 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising while the ChiNext Index experiences a pullback, amidst a focus on the performance of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) which leads its category in trading volume and price stability [1][6] Market Performance - On December 25, the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) increased by 0.08% to a price of 1.178 yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.92% and a trading volume of 246 million yuan, making it the top performer among similar ETFs [1][6] - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has seen a net inflow of 930 million yuan, with a total of 1.72 billion yuan over the last ten days, and 5.81 billion yuan over the last sixty days, indicating strong investor interest [2][7] Institutional Insights - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities anticipates the initiation of a spring market rally in 2026, highlighting that while key sectors like AI may have limited upward potential, alternative themes such as policy-driven investments and high dividend strategies are expected to be active [4][9] - The firm notes two positive short-term factors: sustained liquidity in the spring market and a favorable policy window in the coming months, which historically supports market rebounds before the Spring Festival [4][9] - Open Source Securities emphasizes that "technology first" will be the strongest theme in the upcoming bull market, with a shift towards factor investing focusing on profit growth and return on equity (ROE) [4][9] ETF Historical Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) was established in December 2018 and has shown robust historical performance, achieving a return of 135.06% as of December 24, 2025, significantly outperforming its benchmark and ranking 80th among 502 similar products [5][10] - The ETF is positioned as a stable investment tool for volatile markets, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investment strategies to mitigate risk [5][10]