Core Insights - Jeff Schmider, a Federal Reserve official, shared insights on monetary policy and bank regulation, indicating that while a recent 25 basis point rate cut was made to support the labor market, further cuts may not be necessary in the short term due to inflation remaining above target levels and a balanced labor market [1][3] Monetary Policy - Schmider emphasized that future interest rate adjustments will closely align with real-time data on inflation and employment, rather than following a preset path, leading to a preference for a "less aggressive" rate cut stance [3][4] - He highlighted the importance of balancing the dual mandate of price stability and employment promotion, cautioning against allowing a single goal to dominate decision-making [3] Bank Regulation - The value of the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence was underscored, as it allows for a focus on long-term financial stability and enhances public trust in the banking system [3] - Schmider warned against proposals to separate regulatory functions from the Federal Reserve or subject them to direct political control, as such changes could lead to unforeseen consequences and undermine regulatory effectiveness [3] Regional Structure - The advantages of the Federal Reserve's regional structure were explained, noting that regional banks' close ties to local economies enable more precise policy responses to varying economic conditions [3] - This "grounded" perspective is crucial in both monetary policy and regulatory practices, aiding in maintaining financial stability while being responsive to economic changes [3] Decision-Making Approach - Schmider's stance reflects a pragmatic and cautious balance amid internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of rate cuts, recognizing the supportive role of moderate cuts for the labor market while advocating for continuous data monitoring to calibrate policy strength [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Externally, although the Sino-US tariff negotiations have entered a period of easing, the US government's expansion in Europe and pressure on Russia have increased geopolitical uncertainties. There are still significant differences within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, leading to increased volatility in peripheral assets. [3][10] - Domestically, the current fundamental recovery remains weak, and incremental policies are anticipated. The A-share market is in a technology - driven structural bull market. The CSRC Chairman Wu Qing stated that efforts will be made to increase the proportion of A-share technology market value, signaling a future structural transformation of the A-share market. Attention should be focused on the technology sector. [3][10] - In the short - term, the recent A - share trend indicates strong support below 3750 - 3800 points for the broader market, but significant pressure at 3900 points. With 4 trading days left until the National Day holiday, it is expected that the stock index will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner before the holiday. [3][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **海外隔夜** - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, higher than the expected 650,000 and the previous value of 664,000, indicating the resilience of the US real estate market. [2][5] - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee said he would not support a rate cut at the next meeting. After Fed Chairman Powell sent an uncertain signal about future monetary policy, the hawkish signals from Fed officials suggest significant differences in internal views, dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut. [2][5] - Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields increased at both short and long ends, gold prices fell, the three major US stock indexes declined, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Geopolitical uncertainties and the risk of Russian sanctions are rising, increasing asset volatility. [2][5] - **国内行情回顾** - On Wednesday, the broader market rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%, showing a rebound. Compared with the sharp rise of the index a year ago on September 24th, the current rise is slower, mainly a structural market around the technology sector. [2][6] - Sectors such as power equipment, electronics, media, computers, and real estate led the gains, while banks, coal, and communications declined. There were 4457 rising stocks and 852 falling stocks in the entire market. Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming's plan to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure in three years boosted market sentiment towards the technology sector. [2][6] - **重要资讯** - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle, suggesting that Powell should signal a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut. [7] - FOMC voting member Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns and will not support a rate cut at the next meeting, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that economic growth and labor market indicators have slowed, and inflation is lower than expected, suggesting a further rate cut. [7] - The US officially lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% starting from August 1, 2025. [7] - The Kremlin criticized Trump, saying he is trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices. [7] - China aims to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% - 10% from the peak in the entire economic scope by 2035. [8] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a round - table meeting with some Chinese - funded enterprises in the US. [9] - Eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to promote service exports and develop digital consumption. [9] - **今日策略** - The external environment has geopolitical uncertainties, and the Federal Reserve has internal differences on rate cuts. The domestic fundamental recovery is weak, and A - shares are in a technology - driven structural bull market. Focus on the technology sector, and expect the stock index to consolidate in a volatile manner before the National Day holiday. [3][10] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - **期货市场表现** - Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, basis, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. [12] - **期货成交与持仓** - Data on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading turnover, trading turnover changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts are presented, as well as data on the positions of the top 20 member institutions. [13] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - **现货市场表现** - Information on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading turnover, and price - to - earnings ratios of various stock indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is provided. [35] - **市场风格对指数涨跌影响** - Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes in terms of weight, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [36][37] - **估值情况** - Presents the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indexes and Shenwan sectors. [39][42] - **其他市场指标** - Includes data on market average daily trading volume, average daily turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, changes in index trading turnover, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportions in A - share trading turnover. [44][45][46] 3.4流动性跟踪 - **央行公开市场操作** - Displays data on currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection in the central bank's open - market operations. [49][50] - **Shibor利率水平** - Shows the levels of SHIBOR overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month interest rates. [52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. as President Trump refuses to negotiate with Democrats over budget issues, particularly regarding healthcare spending and immigration policies [5][6][7]. Government Shutdown Risk - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown on September 30, which would mark the 15th shutdown since 1981. Previous shutdowns have led to federal agencies halting operations, employees being placed on unpaid leave, and disruptions in public services and government contracts [7]. - Trump's refusal to meet with Democratic leaders stems from their demands for an additional $1.5 trillion in spending, primarily for healthcare, which he deems unreasonable [5][6]. Economic Implications - Concerns have been raised about the broader economic impact of a government shutdown. Experts warn that a shutdown could create significant uncertainty for federal employees and local economies, with potential long-term effects on economic growth [10]. - The article highlights the ongoing fiscal challenges in the U.S., with predictions of high inflation persisting into 2026 and a significant fiscal deficit expected due to continued expansionary fiscal policies [7][9]. Federal Workforce Impact - The White House's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has instructed federal agencies to identify projects that will lose funding and to prepare for permanent layoffs in areas not aligned with Trump's priorities [9]. - Historically, about 60% of federal employees are deemed essential during shutdowns, while the remaining employees are classified as non-essential and do not receive pay until the government reopens [9][10].

Core Points - The potential government shutdown on September 30 could mark the 15th shutdown since 1981, with significant implications for federal operations and employee status [1][4][6] Group 1: Government Shutdown Context - President Trump has refused to meet with Democratic leaders until they abandon demands for $1.5 trillion in spending, primarily for healthcare [3][4] - The House passed a temporary funding bill to extend federal funding until November 21, but it failed in the Senate [4] Group 2: Economic Implications - Concerns have been raised about the U.S. economy, inflation, and fiscal outlook, with predictions of a significant fiscal deficit by 2026 [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is seen as potentially leading to increased risks of policy missteps, including sustained high inflation [5] Group 3: Federal Workforce Impact - The White House budget office has instructed federal agencies to identify projects that will lose discretionary funding and to draft plans for permanent job cuts in areas not aligned with Trump's priorities [6] - Historically, about 60% of federal employees are deemed essential during shutdowns, while the rest are placed on unpaid leave [6][7] - The potential for large-scale layoffs could have detrimental effects on U.S. economic growth, creating uncertainty for federal workers and local economies [6][7]

在批评鲍威尔的同时，贝森特对新上任的美联储理事米兰大加赞赏 ，称其为理事会注入了"新鲜血液"。 由特朗普总统提名、并于上周美联储会议前获得参议 院批准的米兰，是一位激进降息的倡导者。 美国财政部长贝森特罕见地公开表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的不满，批评其未能为降息建立清晰的议程，凸显出美国政府与美联储在货币政策路径上的分歧日 益加剧。 贝森特周三在接受媒体采访时表示， 当前的利率"限制性过强，需要下调"。 他指出， 对于鲍威尔未能在年底前释放至少降息100至150个基点的信号，他感 到"有些惊讶"。 贝森特的此番言论，与鲍威尔前一日的审慎表态形成鲜明对比。鲍威尔周二在罗德岛州的一场活动中重申，美联储正面临劳动力市场走弱和通胀上行风险并存 的"挑战性局面"。他强调，双向风险意味着不存在"无风险的路径"，暗示了其在进一步放宽政策上的谨慎态度。 这场公开的政策分歧，发生在白宫正在物色鲍威尔继任者的微妙时刻。贝森特透露， 他正在面试11名候选人以接替鲍威尔的职位，他正在寻找一位思想开放的 人来担任美联储主席。 新任理事的异议之声 鲍威尔的审慎立场 在权衡未来决策时，鲍威尔正努力在两大对立的经济风险之间寻找平衡。据他在普罗 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. Macroscopically, Powell's remarks suggest a tight interest - rate environment, and Fed officials' statements impact the market. Fundamentally, copper concentrate supply is tight, and consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" pattern [4]. - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. Domestic and international spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to increase, intensifying the oversupply situation [12]. - The electrolytic aluminum market shows short - term shock and stabilization. After the decline in aluminum prices, downstream提货 sentiment has increased, and social inventories have slightly decreased [20]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable with a slightly upward trend. Downstream demand is recovering, and enterprises are stocking up in advance [27]. - The zinc market may show short - term range - bound fluctuations. Although domestic refined zinc may be in a slightly oversupplied state in September, overseas de - stocking and the Back structure of LME0 - 3 may support zinc prices [35]. - The lead market is expected to maintain high - level shock. The supply of lead ingots may increase, and downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the National Day holiday [42]. - The nickel market maintains a wide - range shock trend. The impact of Indonesian policies on nickel ore supply is limited, and LME inventory is expected to continue to increase [45]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a shock trend. Although production has increased in September, demand has not shown a seasonal peak, and there is both supply pressure and cost support [53]. - The tin market is expected to maintain high - level shock. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish, with short - term supply showing some improvement [60]. - The industrial silicon market suggests taking long positions. The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [66]. - The polysilicon market suggests taking long positions after a sufficient correction. Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted - sales background [70]. - The lithium carbonate market shows wide - range shock. The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and weak downstream stocking enthusiasm [75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,960 yuan/ton, up 0.03%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 2,833 lots to 463,900 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 8 yuan to 2,907 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 12,071 lots to 431,700 lots. Spot prices in various regions declined [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 20,705 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 4,416 lots to 496,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 106 lots to 18,605 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 fell 0.43% to 21,860 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 3,546 lots to 253,800 lots. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead 2511 fell 0.35% to 17,065 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 4,144 lots to 94,800 lots. Spot prices declined slightly [38]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 rose 280 to 121,450 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 3,672 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [44]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main SS2511 contract fell 10 to 12,895 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 3,317 lots. Spot prices were in a certain range [52]. - **Tin**: The main contract Shanghai tin 2510 closed at 271,650 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan/ton or 0.52%, and positions decreased by 886 lots to 51,173 lots. Spot prices rebounded, and trading was mainly for rigid demand [56]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures main contract fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,020 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. Spot prices remained stable [63]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose with position reduction, closing at 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%. Spot prices remained stable [68]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main 2511 contract fell 580 to 72,880 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 10,199 lots. Spot prices remained unchanged [74]. Relevant Information - **Copper**: On September 23, Hudbay Minerals' Constancia copper mine in Peru temporarily closed its concentrator due to safety issues, but it is expected not to affect this year's output [3]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina continued to be under pressure, and the CIF price of bauxite from Guinea decreased. In August 2025, the import and export volume of alumina changed significantly [10][11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The euro - zone's September manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range, and the US September Markit manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the import and export volume of aluminum ingots changed in August [18][19]. - **Zinc**: As of September 22, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. Affected by Typhoon "Huajiacha", the operating rate of zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong is expected to decline [32][34]. - **Lead**: As of September 22, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and a small - scale recycled lead smelter in South China resumed production [39]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia imposed penalties on some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban [45]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by Typhoon "Huajiacha", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures. After Yelian's anti - dumping investigation, the import volume of stainless steel decreased significantly in August [53]. - **Tin**: The US secondary tin producer Nathan Trotter started construction on its Tin Ridge smelter, and an Indonesian miner plans to increase tin ore production next year [58][59]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products increased year - on - year and month - on - month [65]. - **Polysilicon**: In August, the total social electricity consumption increased year - on - year [69]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: An Australian mining company signed a lithium carbonate supply agreement with a South Korean battery manufacturer [75]. Logic Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors and fundamental factors jointly affect the copper market. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and consumption is not strong during the peak season [4]. - **Alumina**: The domestic and international spot prices of alumina are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to increase, and the fundamental trend is weak [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: After the decline in aluminum prices, downstream demand has increased, and social inventories have decreased slightly. The Fed's attitude towards further interest - rate cuts is cautious, and the European manufacturing PMI has fallen back into the contraction range [20]. - **Zinc**: In September, domestic refined zinc may be slightly oversupplied, but overseas de - stocking and the Back structure of LME0 - 3 may support zinc prices. The export window of domestic refined zinc may open [35]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots may increase, and downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the National Day holiday. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the lead price is expected to maintain high - level shock [42]. - **Nickel**: The impact of Indonesian policies on nickel ore supply is limited, and LME inventory is expected to continue to increase. The nickel price maintains a wide - range shock trend [45]. - **Stainless Steel**: Although production has increased in September, demand has not shown a seasonal peak. There is both supply pressure and cost support, and the market is expected to maintain a shock trend [53]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Short - term supply shows some improvement, and the tin price is expected to maintain high - level shock [60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [66]. - **Polysilicon**: Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted - sales background [70]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and weak downstream stocking enthusiasm, and the lithium carbonate price shows wide - range shock [75]. Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Short - term copper prices are slightly under pressure; continue to hold cross - market positive spreads; and wait and see for options [6]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price shows weak shock; conduct reverse spreads for month - spreads; and wait and see for options [13][14]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price shows short - term shock and stabilization; wait and see for spreads; and wait and see for options [21][22]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price; go long on AD and short on AL for spreads; and wait and see for options [28][29]. - **Zinc**: The short - term zinc price may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to LME inventory changes; wait and see for spreads; and wait and see for options [36]. - **Lead**: The short - term lead price may maintain high - level shock, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices [43]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price maintains a wide - range shock trend; wait and see for spreads; and wait and see for options [46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price maintains a wide - range shock trend; wait and see for spreads [54][55]. - **Tin**: The tin price maintains high - level shock; wait and see for options [61][62]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Take long positions; sell out - of - the - money put options; and there is no spread strategy [67]. - **Polysilicon**: Take long positions after a sufficient correction; conduct reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; and sell put options [73]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price shows wide - range shock; wait and see for spreads; and sell wide - span option combinations [76].

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 97.33, with mixed movements in major non-USD currencies [1] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate rising by 49 basis points to 7.1057 [3] - The Australian dollar has recently declined, breaking key support levels, but may show potential for recovery if it maintains above certain moving averages [4] - The USD/JPY pair shows signs of upward momentum, with key resistance levels identified at 148.57 and 149.00 [5] - The EUR/USD pair has experienced a pullback but remains above significant moving averages, with potential downward pressure if it falls below certain trend lines [5] Economic Indicators - The focus for today includes the German IFO Business Climate Index to be released at 16:00 [1][9] - The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from a previous estimate of 2.9% [8] Key Events - US President Trump is scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly [9] - Australia will release its August weighted CPI year-on-year data [9] - The US will report on new home sales and EIA crude oil inventories later in the day [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Powell mentioned that there are risks of rising inflation and falling employment, and the Fed needs to balance. The US September PMI was in line with expectations, with stocks adjusting, the dollar index fluctuating weakly, gold hitting a new high, and oil prices rising due to supply disruptions. Domestically, the stock, bond, and commodity markets all adjusted on Tuesday. The stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see state with limited allocation space. [2][3] - Precious metals continued to rise, driven by factors such as the Fed's expected interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, a weak dollar, and the repair of the gold - silver ratio. They may show a volatile trend in the short term. [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with limited downward adjustment space, considering the Fed's policy stance and fundamental factors. [6][7] - Aluminum is expected to have a slow adjustment in the short term, with limited downside space, as market sentiment is cautious and fundamentals show improving consumption. [8][10] - Alumina continues to be weak, dominated by supply - side pressure. [11] - Zinc prices are expected to continue to trade in a narrow range at a low level, with limited downward adjustment space, as the market stabilizes and short - term consumption is disrupted by weather. [12] - Lead prices may decline as supply is expected to increase, although short - term support from pre - holiday stocking exists. [13][14] - Tin prices will maintain a high - level volatile trend, with their movement following market sentiment, as the raw material supply and demand contradiction is not significantly improved. [15] - Industrial silicon is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, considering supply growth and demand - side factors. [16][17] - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating as the market is avoiding policy risks, although there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals. [18][19] - Nickel prices are fluctuating with limited driving factors, and the short - term trend may be adjusted under technical guidance. [20][21] - Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a clear long - term downward trend due to supply surplus, but geopolitical factors are causing short - term disruptions. [22][23] - For soda ash and glass, the fundamentals are stable, and there are opportunities in the price spread. [24] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust as spot trading is poor. [25] - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with supply and demand factors affecting the market. [26] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Powell stated that inflation and employment risks coexist, and the Fed's decision - making is not driven by political factors. The US September S&P manufacturing and services PMI were in line with expectations, both in the expansion range. Stocks adjusted, the dollar index was weak, gold reached a new high, and oil prices rose. [2] - Domestic: The stock, bond, and commodity markets adjusted on Tuesday. The stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. The 10Y and 30Y interest rates rose to 1.79% and 2.09% respectively. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 0.58% to $3796.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce. Driven by multiple factors, precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance in the long term but may show a volatile trend in the short term. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and LME copper hovered around the $10,000 mark. Considering the Fed's policy and fundamentals, copper prices are expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with limited downward adjustment space. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,685 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. Due to market caution and improving fundamentals, it is expected to have a slow adjustment in the short term, with limited downside space. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - The futures main contract closed at 2877 yuan per ton, down 1.94%. With supply pressure, it continues to be weak. [11] 3.6 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract had an intraday decline and a night - session sideways movement. Affected by weather and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to trade in a narrow range at a low level, with limited downward adjustment space. [12] 3.7 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract declined. With the expected increase in supply, lead prices may decline after the pre - holiday stocking phase. [13][14] 3.8 Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract had a high - level volatile trend. Although consumption improvement is limited, the raw material supply and demand contradiction supports tin prices, and its movement follows market sentiment. [15] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon declined. With supply growth and demand - side factors, it is expected to have a weak and volatile trend. [16][17] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated. Although there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals, the market is avoiding the risk of the September 30 lithium mine ruling. [18][19] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated. With limited driving factors and unclear disturbances from Indonesian mine suspensions, the short - term trend may be adjusted under technical guidance. [20][21] 3.12 Crude Oil - Oil prices had a night - session gap - up opening. In the short term, they are expected to be volatile due to geopolitical factors, while in the long term, a downward trend is clear due to supply surplus. [22][23] 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated, and the glass main contract was slightly stronger. The fundamentals are stable, and there are opportunities in the price spread. [24] 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillated and declined slightly. With poor spot trading, prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. [25] 3.15 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. With supply and demand changes, it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. [26] 3.16 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The report provides trading data for various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and positions on September 23. [27] 3.17 Industrial Data Perspective - It presents detailed industrial data for metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including inventory, spot quotes, and price differentials on September 23 and September 22. [29][33]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire report were provided. Core Views - The macro - economic situation is complex. In the domestic market, economic growth is slowing, but policy support is in place. The stock market is strong, while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the fluctuation center is around 7.10, and there is no sign of a trend appreciation for now. The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policies, and excessive bets on loose policies may bring risks [4]. - The stock index has support below due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the current market lacks positive drivers [8][9]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract [11]. - Precious metals may be bullish in the long - term, but the short - term upward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday [12][16]. - Copper is expected to remain stable and may fluctuate slightly above 80,000 yuan per ton. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [17][18]. - Zinc is expected to move downward slowly. Nickel and stainless steel short - positions can be stopped and reduced at low prices, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - guidance [20][21]. - Tin is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities. Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday. Lead is expected to be cautiously bullish [26][29]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore is expected to trade based on fundamentals and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke are anti - falling, and it is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [31][33][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and their downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. - Crude oil is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate in a range. PTA - PX prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to try long positions cautiously. Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [43][46][48]. - PP's downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices. PE is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a weak state, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - Rubber is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - Pulp is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Logs are expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [70][71]. - Propylene investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74]. Summary by Directory Macro - The US manufacturing and service PMI declined in September, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The Fed's interest - rate cut path has differences, and the market is concerned about the PCE data [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1133 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1057, up 49 basis points. The RMB is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated yesterday, and the large - cap index was relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6][8]. Bond - The bond market fell yesterday, and it is recommended to use a volatile trading idea and buy long positions at intervals [9]. Shipping - The shipping index (European line) futures price fell back. The spot price of some shipping companies increased, while others decreased. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 12 - contract can be considered for long positions [10][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose and then fell on Tuesday. The upward momentum weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday. The medium - and long - term may be bullish, and the short - term may be adjusted [12][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price remained stable at around 80,000 yuan per ton, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly above this level [17]. - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by macro - policies and fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to be weak [19]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to move downward slowly, and it is recommended to buy put options or sell call options [20][21]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to stop and reduce short positions at low prices [21][22]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The price is expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday [26][27]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be cautiously bullish [29]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of crude steel has shrunk, and the demand has improved slightly. The inventory is still at a high level, and the price is expected to fluctuate [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has recovered, and the demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is anti - falling. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The cost provides support, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded, but it is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - **LPG**: The price rebounded with emotions and crude oil, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [41][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The price declined due to pessimistic emotions. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously [44][46]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [48]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices [51]. - **PE**: The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The price fell, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - **Rubber**: It is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [70]. - **Logs**: The price is expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [71]. - **Propylene**: Investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74].

智通财经APP获悉，交易员们正在降低对美联储未来数月降息幅度的预期，这一转变表明，美联储官员 们发出的混乱信息已经影响了人们对货币政策的预期。 与担保隔夜融资利率挂钩的期权显示，市场参与者押注美联储在2025年仅再降息25个基点，且所谓的中 性利率(即既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的利率水平)高于当前市场预期。这与上周形成了鲜明对比，当时 市场对年底前降息50个基点的预期升温。 中性利率预期在美联储9月会议后小幅上升 美联储上周将政策利率下调至4%至4.25%的区间，这是该机构今年的首次降息。 此次会议之后的几天里，大量交易瞄准的利率变动幅度低于目前掉期市场所定价的约两次25个基点的变 动幅度。从更长远的时间来看，期权市场还出现了暗示中性利率接近3%的交易。 利率互换市场目前预计中性利率约为2.95%，并预计今年剩余两次会议总共降息约40个基点。 美联储官员最近几周发表的更广泛的货币政策观点推动了这种转变，交易员纷纷对冲美联储大幅降息和 降息幅度较小的情景。 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰本周表示，政策目前仍过于紧缩，并主张在2025年剩余的两次联邦公开市 场委员会(FOMC)会议上将利率下调125个基点。而亚特兰大联 ...