1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was over 2.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 192,000 tons. In September, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, iron ore demand will still be resilient [3][40]. - In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase. Both monthly shipments and arrivals were at the highest levels of the year. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][41]. - In the next month, focus on the impact of steel mills' phased restocking on the market. With a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, after the end of parade - related production restrictions, northern blast furnaces will resume production, increasing phased restocking demand. As the National Day holiday approaches, there is still restocking expectation in mid - to - late September. With the improvement of supply - demand margins, iron ore is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, but the upside is limited by high steel inventories and weak terminal demand. The price range to watch is 700 - 890 yuan/ton [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, iron ore futures showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend, remaining relatively firm under the background of both supply and demand decline. In early August, the futures price rebounded due to better - than - expected steel demand in the off - season and strong exports. In mid - August, the iron ore price dropped as steel downstream demand was insufficient. In late August, iron ore was resistant to decline as its demand remained high. In September, pig iron output will remain resilient, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation will support the iron ore price, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged [8]. - The spot price oscillated with a slight increase. As of early September, the 62% Platts Index rose 2.6% to $102.7, and the PB powder spot price rose 1 yuan to 769 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores weakened. The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder dropped from over 120 yuan/ton to around 100 yuan/ton. The spread between the 09 - 01 contracts weakened last month and then rebounded in September [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Demand with High - level Fine - tuning and Overall Strong Resilience - In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was above 90%, and the daily average pig iron output of steel mills was over 2.4 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate slightly declined from 64.94% to 63.64%, remaining at a high level in recent years, supporting high - level pig iron output. In September, iron ore demand will still be resilient, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [10]. - Overseas, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased to 90%. The crude steel output of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly. In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics decreased by 1.3% year - on - year [11]. 3.2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Stable with an Increase - From January to July, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase, and both monthly shipments and arrivals were at the highest levels of the year. The weekly average shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24 million tons. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [15]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In the previous month, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China decreased slightly month - on - month, remaining at a moderately high level overall but showing a differentiated structure. As of early September, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.25 million tons. The overall high iron ore inventory has limited support for the iron ore price [18]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - The iron ore inventory of steel mills decreased slightly. As of early September, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.39 million tons. Steel mills' profitability at a high level this year drives restocking. After the end of production restrictions and as the National Day holiday approaches, there is restocking expectation, which will support the spot price. Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management [31]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of domestic mines are at a neutral level in recent years, with a low possibility of significant short - term production increase. As of early September, the daily average concentrate output of 186 domestic mines was 452,000 tons, and the mine concentrate inventory was 681,500 tons [35]. 3.2.6 Freight Situation - In August, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) adjusted slightly. As of September 3, the BDI index was 1940 points. The freight rates of the Australian and Brazilian routes to Qingdao increased. Currently, the freight rates are at a medium - to - high level within the year, but the upside may be limited due to unstable global macro - demand [37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Demand side: In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. In September, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, iron ore demand will still be resilient. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [40]. - Supply side: In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the next month, with the improvement of supply - demand margins, iron ore is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, but the upside is limited by high steel inventories and weak terminal demand. The price range to watch is 700 - 890 yuan/ton [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent maintenance and restart are concurrent, the liquidity in the spot market is acceptable, the spot basis is weakening, and the regional basis is somewhat differentiated. The PTA price on the disk has declined following the cost side, and the processing margin has been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, the ethylene glycol load has fallen below 74% this week, and the domestic supply recovery is still delayed. There are still maintenance expectations for some devices in October. The supply-demand structure of ethylene glycol from September to October has improved compared to expectations. The transferable spot of ethylene glycol at the real - time port will continue to tighten, and the spot basis will remain in a strong pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to polyester production and sales and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, there were transactions for September middle - term goods at a discount of 70 - 80 to the 01 contract, September lower - term goods at a discount of 65 - 75 to the 01 contract, and some warehouse - receipt cancellation goods at a discount of 80 - 90 to the 01 contract. The price negotiation range was around 4570 - 4610. There were transactions for October goods at a discount of 50 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 76 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4585, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 87, with the disk at a premium. The situation is neutral [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.9 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09 days, which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position was short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to the results of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the basis continued to strengthen. The ethylene glycol disk adjusted widely during the day, and the near - end basis continued to strengthen. In the afternoon, the negotiation and transaction price of next - week's spot was around a premium of 145 - 146 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The negotiation of far - month futures was stalemate, and most traders were on the sidelines. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol outer - disk slightly increased, and the negotiation price of recent shipments was around 523 - 526 US dollars/ton. There were few offers in the market, and traders participated in the buying moderately. There were transactions of late - September shipments at around 523 US dollars/ton during the day. The negotiation ranges of domestic and foreign transactions were 4465 - 4523 yuan/ton and 523 - 526 US dollars/ton respectively. The situation is neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4488, and the basis of the 01 contract was 133, with the disk at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region was 38.03 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.6 tons, which is bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position was short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to polyester production and sales and device changes [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: In August, some PTA devices were planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand expectation improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start is also slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device was shut down for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of various links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere is still cautious [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides detailed data on PTA's production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, and consumption from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year growth rates, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [11]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents detailed data on ethylene glycol's production, import, total supply, polyester production, and consumption from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year growth rates, port inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [12]. Other Data Presentations - The report also includes data charts on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, processing margins, profits of different production methods, and inventory and operating rates of polyester upstream and downstream industries from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][22] etc.

有色金属日报 2025-9-8 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 铝 周五铝价冲高回落，伦铝收涨 0.48%至 2602 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 20665 元/吨。周五沪铝加 权合约持仓量减少 1.1 至 53.4 万手，期货仓单增加至 6.0 万吨。根据 SMM 统计，国内三地铝锭库 存录得 46.5 万吨，环比减少 0.4 万吨，佛山、无锡两地铝棒库存录得 9.1 万吨，环比减少 0.5 万 吨，周五铝棒 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the rising opportunities in the commodity futures market, particularly highlighting the strong performance of polysilicon futures, which reached the limit up on September 5 [1] - The article mentions that there are currently 86 futures products listed, covering various sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, black chain, and agricultural products, indicating a diverse and independent market [1] - The "Jing·Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Competition" is promoted as a platform for participants to engage in futures trading with a simulated capital of 1 million, providing a risk-free environment to learn and practice trading skills [1][2] Group 2 - The article encourages participation in the competition, stating that it is an opportune time to learn about futures trading during the "golden September and silver October" period, which is traditionally seen as a time of increased market activity [1] - A professional team with 5-13 years of experience is mentioned, which will support participants throughout the competition, focusing on dynamic trend detection and trading strategies [1] - The registration process for the competition is outlined, emphasizing the ease of signing up through the Daily Economic News app, and highlighting the exclusive benefits for new participants [2][4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong paper industry stocks collectively rose, with Chenming Paper up 4.6%, Lee & Man Paper up over 3%, and Nine Dragons Paper up over 2% [1] - Major paper manufacturers such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper announced price increases for certain products in early September, indicating a potential last opportunity for price hikes before the traditional peak season [1] - The paper packaging industry is facing challenges due to an imbalance in supply and demand as new production capacities come online, making it difficult for companies like Nine Dragons to maintain stability in a volatile market [1] Group 2 - Shanying Paper announced a maintenance shutdown plan during the National Day holiday, affecting 12 paper lines across multiple bases in Anhui, Zhejiang, Central China, Fujian, Guangdong, and Jilin, with shutdown durations ranging from 4 to 8 days, concentrated from September 29 to October 6 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to see a rebound in performance as the negative impacts from Q2 earnings reports have been exhausted, with the upcoming peak demand season and supply contraction expectations supporting coal prices [1] Supply - In July, coal production decreased significantly due to rainfall and checks on overproduction, with a reduction of 4 million tons month-on-month and 900 thousand tons year-on-year [2] - The four major coal-producing regions all experienced a decline in output, with Xinjiang showing the largest month-on-month reduction [2] - Domestic coal prices increased in July, and while imports saw a slight recovery, they remained at relatively low levels compared to historical data [2] Demand - July marked the beginning of the demand peak season, with a notable increase in thermal power generation and sustained demand for chemical coal [3] - National coal consumption in July reached 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5% [3] - The upcoming non-electric demand peak season in September, along with winter storage needs, is expected to support coal demand [3] Inventory - Inventory levels across various sectors have decreased, with port inventories lower than the same period last year, which may provide support for coal prices [4] - Key coal mines in six major regions saw a month-on-month inventory reduction of 8.63%, although year-on-year levels increased by 15.04% [4] Price - The coal price is expected to stabilize and rebound due to supply contraction expectations and the upcoming non-electric demand peak season [5] - In the thermal coal sector, prices have rebounded by nearly 100 yuan per ton, although they have recently declined from peak levels [5]

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, combined with the seasonal demand in September and October, leading to strong upward momentum in industrial metal prices [1][2] - Copper prices are supported by a decrease in electrolytic copper production expected in October, with the SMM import copper concentrate index reporting a weekly increase of $0.63 to -$40.85 per ton [2] - Aluminum production has slightly increased to 847,300 tons, with domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory at 626,000 tons, indicating a slight accumulation of 6,000 tons [2] Group 2: Energy Metals - The supply of cobalt raw materials continues to decrease, suggesting a potential surge in cobalt prices, while lithium demand is expected to strengthen during the traditional peak season [3] - The market is entering a phase of increased supply and demand for lithium, with expectations of a tight supply situation, leading to a sustained strong price for lithium carbonate [3] - Nickel prices are expected to rise due to limited supply from nickel salt plants and high raw material costs, with ongoing demand from downstream enterprises [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - The weak U.S. employment data and inflation aligning with expectations have bolstered confidence in a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to an upward shift in gold and silver prices [4] - The legal and economic uncertainties from tariff disputes are expected to increase safe-haven demand, supporting gold prices [4] - Central bank gold purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit are anticipated to drive gold prices higher, presenting opportunities for investment in the gold sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has introduced significant real estate policy changes aimed at optimizing housing purchase restrictions, enhancing corporate purchasing policies, and adjusting personal housing credit policies, reflecting a combination of urban governance and public welfare [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy allows eligible resident families, including both local and non-local families with certain qualifications, to purchase an unlimited number of properties in specific districts such as Luohu and Baoan [2][3]. - Non-local families without proof of continuous social insurance or income tax payments in Shenzhen can still purchase up to two properties in the same districts [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new policy, there was a noticeable increase in property viewings and consultations, indicating heightened interest from potential buyers [2][3]. - The number of inquiries at real estate agencies surged, with some agencies reporting the highest consultation levels in nearly 90 days, particularly in the Luohu district [3]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The release of pent-up demand may not be fully realized until the upcoming National Day holiday, suggesting a gradual market recovery [5]. - Analysts believe that the new policies will stimulate market activity, particularly in areas with a high concentration of industrial enterprises, thereby enhancing overall demand [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The policy reflects a strategic approach to real estate governance, aiming to stabilize market expectations and boost confidence among buyers [6]. - The timing of the policy rollout aligns with the traditional peak sales period in September and October, which may further enhance its effectiveness [6].

Core Insights - Shenzhen's housing policy adjustments aim to optimize and relax purchase restrictions, enhancing market confidence and stimulating demand [2][7][8] - The immediate market response indicates a significant increase in inquiries and transactions, particularly in the secondary housing market [3][4][5] Policy Changes - The new policy includes the relaxation of purchase restrictions, allowing more flexibility for both local residents and external buyers [2][7] - Specific measures include the addition of six scenarios for withdrawing housing provident fund for down payments [2] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, there was a notable increase in property viewings and inquiries, with some areas reporting a doubling of client visits [3][4] - Real estate agents and developers observed a surge in customer engagement, with many clients who were previously hesitant now actively seeking properties [5][6] Expert Opinions - Industry experts believe the policy will lead to a significant uptick in transaction volumes, potentially doubling compared to last year [8][9] - The adjustments are seen as a strategic move to stabilize the market and attract external investment, particularly in non-core areas [7][8] Future Outlook - The upcoming months, traditionally known as "Golden September and Silver October," are expected to see increased market activity due to the new policies [9][10] - Analysts predict that the policy changes will lead to a substantial increase in both new and secondary housing transactions, with expectations of over 50% growth in September [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen has introduced significant real estate policies aimed at optimizing housing purchase restrictions, corporate purchasing policies, and personal housing credit policies, reflecting a combination of urban governance and public welfare [1][6]. Policy Changes - The new policies allow eligible residents, including local and certain non-local families, to purchase an unlimited number of homes in specific districts such as Luohu and Baoan, while non-local families without proof of continuous social insurance or tax payments can buy up to two homes [2][3]. - The relaxation of purchase restrictions is expected to stimulate market activity, particularly in areas with high rental yields and quality school districts [3][5]. Market Response - Following the announcement of the new policies, there was a noticeable increase in inquiries and property viewings, with some real estate agents reporting a significant rise in client consultations and property showings [2][3]. - The number of consultations for second-hand homes reached the highest level in nearly 90 days, with a 15% increase in viewing numbers compared to the previous eight weeks, particularly in Luohu where viewings surged by 38% [3][4]. Future Expectations - The release of new demand may be more evident during the upcoming National Day holiday, with experts suggesting that the market will not experience drastic fluctuations even with the lifting of restrictions [5][6]. - The policies are expected to enhance market confidence and stabilize expectations, particularly during the traditional peak sales period of "Golden September and Silver October" [6][7]. Broader Implications - The relaxation of corporate purchasing restrictions is anticipated to activate demand in industrial areas, benefiting regions with a high concentration of enterprises [5][6]. - The overall strategy reflects a proactive approach to real estate governance, aiming for targeted and effective policy implementation rather than broad, indiscriminate measures [6][7].