1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Bullish [4] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Long - term: Oscillating Bearish; Short - term: Oscillating [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [15] - **Logs**: Oscillating Weakly [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a pattern of multi - variety small fluctuations and oscillating consolidation. Each variety is affected by different factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade relations, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [1]. - After the end of the delivery game, the market gradually returns to being dominated by fundamentals. For example, the log market is expected to maintain an oscillating range in the medium term [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating bullish. The market is affected by multiple factors, with overseas biodiesel demand expectations being optimistic, the growth of US soybeans being good, the marginal reduction of the production increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June, palm oil still being in the production increase season, high domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and the expected decrease in rapeseed imports [4]. - **Information**: As of July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act boosts the demand expectation of US biodiesel for US soybean oil. Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. The inventory of domestic imported soybeans is rising, and the expected increase in the production of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited [4]. - **Logic**: Due to good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and concerns about trade disputes, US soybeans fell on Monday, while domestic oils and fats oscillated and rose on Tuesday, with palm oil being relatively strong. The macro - environment and industrial factors jointly affect the price trends of oils and fats [4]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Oscillating. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate in a range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [6]. - **Information**: On July 7, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were as follows: US Gulf soybeans were 223 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week; US West soybeans were 196 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans were 220 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week. On July 8, the average profit of domestic imported soybean crushing was - 8.72 yuan/ton [5]. - **Logic**: Internationally, factors such as the cancellation of relevant US economic and trade restrictive measures against China, the good growth of US soybeans, and the increase in Brazilian soybean premiums are intertwined. Domestically, the increase in soybean arrivals, the peak of oil mill crushing, and the insufficient downstream replenishment lead to an increase in soybean meal inventories [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Oscillating. The futures price reached a new low, and the auction turnover became lighter [7]. - **Information**: The mainstream spot price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2310 - 2330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Guangdong Port was 2420 - 2440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Logic**: In the futures market, some short - sellers took profits and left the market, and the bearish sentiment was released. In the spot market, the number of waiting vehicles in North China's deep - processing plants decreased, and the enthusiasm of the trading sector to sell increased [8]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Oscillating. The supply - side reform expectation boosts the sentiment of hog futures, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long term [8]. - **Information**: On July 8, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 15.05 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0.33%; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0.21% [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - control brings positive market sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter is partially released. In the medium and long term, the abundant supply of sows and the continuous increase in the number of piglets born since the beginning of the year bring supply pressure [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Oscillating. It maintains an oscillating range, and there is no major contradiction at present [11]. - **Information**: As of July 8, the prices of various rubber raw materials and products were reported, and the total number of US tire imports in the first five months of 2025 increased by 6.4% year - on - year [9]. - **Logic**: The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side is relatively stable in the short term but weak in the long - term expectation. Overall, it is in a state of pressure [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Oscillating. The unexpected incident of the device quickly pushed up the market, but the fundamentals are still under pressure [13]. - **Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions changed [12]. - **Logic**: The fire in a refinery's device affected the market sentiment, but the butadiene market is still facing problems such as weak demand and increasing supply pressure [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. The new crop has an expected increase in production, which restricts the upside space of the market, while the low inventory of old crops provides support [13]. - **Information**: As of July 8, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 9971, and the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - **Logic**: The new cotton in China and other major producing countries has an expected increase in production. The downstream is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton has been decreasing, but the rate has slowed down recently [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Long - term: Oscillating bearish; short - term: Oscillating. The new sugar - making season is expected to have a loose supply, and the price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Information**: As of July 7, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [14]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production is uncertain, India's monsoon rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the domestic sugar market has a high sales rate but increasing import pressure [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Oscillating. The warm atmosphere in the financial market cannot change the weak atmosphere of pulp [15]. - **Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained unchanged, and the new round of quotes from Chile's Arauco Company for July were reported [15]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand relationship of pulp is weak, but the price is at a low level, and there is a risk in short - selling. It is recommended to hold short positions and not chase short [15]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: Oscillating weakly. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [17]. - **Information**: The delivery situation of the 07 contract has affected the market, and the daily出库 volume of logs in July is more than 60,000 cubic meters [16]. - **Logic**: The demand for logs is stable throughout the year, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation increase reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom. After the end of the delivery game, the market returns to being dominated by fundamentals [17].

今日盘面弱势震荡。螺纹表需环比有所回升，产量延续上升态势，库存继续缓慢下降。热卷需求温和回落，产量维持高位，库 在继续小幅累积。铁水产量有所回落，整体维持相对高位，负反馈担忧缓解，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回 暖缺乏持续性，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，制造业整体仍有韧性。 "反内卷"的实质性措施尚有 待落地，关税政策仍有不确定性，市场乐观情绪降温，盘面短期承压，关注终端需求及国内外相关政策变化。 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 签任 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are supported by a decline in production in Southeast Asian producing areas, and the US biodiesel policy is favorable to the demand outlook for US soybean oil, so it is expected that oils will mainly maintain high - level fluctuations. Pay attention to the MPOB report data this month [3] - Protein meal: Recently, US soybeans have strengthened due to factors such as the possible release of positive signals in Sino - US trade relations and US biofuel policies, driving the continuous meal to follow a relatively strong shock. However, the domestic supply - loose pattern will still put pressure on the upside space, and it is expected that the continuous meal will maintain a shock situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7944, 8472, and 9607 respectively, with price changes of - 50, - 6, and - 12, and percentage changes of - 0.63%, - 0.07%, and - 3.15% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2954, 2458, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 4, - 2, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.14%, - 0.08%, and 0.29% respectively [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: There are various spread and ratio indicators for different varieties, such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc. The current values and previous values of these indicators are provided, showing certain changes [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4032 ringgit/ton, with a price change of 22 and a percentage change of 0.55%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT soybeans was 1048 cents/bu, with a price change of 1 and a percentage change of 0.05%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT US soybean oil was 55 cents/lb, with a price change of - 1 and a percentage change of - 0.96%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT US soybean meal was 292 dollars/ton, with a price change of 2 and a percentage change of 0.58% [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals are provided, such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil at 8150, with a percentage change of - 0.73%, and Nantong soybean meal at 2800, with a percentage change of - 0.71% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different varieties are also given, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 206 and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil being - 350 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - Import profit and pressure indicators for different imported varieties are presented, such as the current value of the near - month Malaysian palm oil being - 580, showing a change compared to the previous value [2] Warehouse Receipts - Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for various varieties like soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are provided, with some showing changes [2] Industry Information - Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 30 is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with different changes in different regions [3] - The global food price index in June increased by 0.5% compared to May, reaching an average of 128.0 points [3] - As of the week ending June 29, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [3]

Group 1: Trump's Approval Ratings - Trump's approval rating has dropped to a historical low, with 43% of Americans satisfied and 53% dissatisfied, resulting in a net approval rating of -10% [1] - This represents a 3 percentage point decline from the previous day, marking the lowest net approval since April 29 [1] - Public dissatisfaction appears to be fueled by Trump's recent actions, reigniting discontent towards the White House [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that current interest rates are sufficient to limit economic activity and that monetary policy should not be adjusted hastily until inflation shows a clearer downward trend [3] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth consecutive time, with potential for two rate cuts this year [3] - Trump has publicly criticized Powell, calling for an investigation into his actions and suggesting that Powell should resign [3] Group 3: U.S.-China Relations - There are indications that China may invite Trump to a military parade in Beijing, signaling a potential thaw in U.S.-China relations [5] - The visit could provide an opportunity for both nations to seek cooperation, especially after years of trade and technology conflicts [5] - Successful outcomes from Trump's visit could lead to a more stable relationship, benefiting both countries economically [5][7] Group 4: Technology Competition - The U.S. continues to impose technology restrictions on China, particularly in critical areas like semiconductor manufacturing and artificial intelligence [7] - The ongoing technology competition will remain a central aspect of U.S.-China relations, with China needing to focus on overcoming key technological challenges [7] - The future of U.S.-China trade relations will involve finding a new balance between cooperation and competition [7]

Group 1 - The drastic drop of 63% in China-US shipping prices reflects a significant shift in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by the recent economic downturn in the US and reduced import demand [1][3] - The uncertainty in international trade, particularly due to fluctuating tariff policies and the ongoing trade tensions between China and the US, has led to a cautious approach among businesses, resulting in decreased shipping orders [3][5] - Chinese foreign trade enterprises face both challenges and opportunities; while reduced orders may lead to overproduction and profit declines, it also presents a chance to reassess business models and explore new markets, such as those along the Belt and Road Initiative [5][6] Group 2 - The significant decline in shipping prices indicates a subtle shift in the global economic structure, as companies increasingly consider relocating production bases to Southeast Asia, impacting the overall trade volume between China and the US [5][8] - The government, businesses, and industry organizations must take proactive measures; the government should enhance support for foreign trade enterprises, while companies need to innovate and improve product quality to remain competitive [5][8] - The volatility in shipping prices serves as a signal of the changing economic environment and the complexities of China-US relations, emphasizing the need for timely strategy adjustments by companies and stable international relations at the national level [6][8]

Group 1 - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing at least a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva have made significant progress, establishing a trade negotiation mechanism [1] - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy has led to a rise in tariffs on various trade partners, with tariffs on Chinese goods peaking at 145% [3] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war has caused significant volatility in global stock markets and has severely impacted U.S.-China economic relations [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the government's cash reserves and debt control measures may be exhausted by August [3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has resulted in increased consumer price index (CPI) growth, affecting households across different income levels [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's stance appears to soften, with indications of a potential agreement with China, and a reduction in tariffs from 30% to 10% on Chinese goods [5] - Despite some concessions, the U.S. government continues to take actions that complicate U.S.-China relations, such as restricting funding for collaborations with Chinese universities [5][8] - Elon Musk has criticized the Trump administration's proposed "big and beautiful" bill, warning it could lead to significant job losses and strategic damage to the U.S. [6] Group 4 - The current state of U.S.-China trade relations shows signs of easing, but uncertainties remain regarding the sincerity of the U.S. government's intentions [8] - Musk's comments reflect the broader challenges and potential risks associated with U.S. trade policies [8][9] - The future trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations remains unpredictable, with global stakeholders closely monitoring developments [9]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.4」 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 添加客服 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除科创50外均录得上涨。四期指表现分化，大盘蓝 筹股强于中小盘股。本周一，国内6月PMI公布，三大PMI指数均较上月回升，市场情绪受到 推动；周二至周四市场震荡整理；周五午间，商务部发言人表示中美双方将各自解除经贸限 制，带动A股午后拉升。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周小幅回落。 2 来源：瑞达期货研究院 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2509 | 1.53 | 0.46 | 3936.0 | | | IH2509 | 1.39 | 0.62 | 2717.2 | | | IC2509 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the exception of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The performance of the four stock index futures was differentiated, and large - cap blue - chip stocks were stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for band - trading opportunities after clear policy signals. For commodities, the index is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For foreign exchange, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. - The improvement in trade relations and domestic policies on reducing over - capacity are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The euro is viewed with an oscillatory outlook due to short - term tariff uncertainties [6]. - The US employment market shows signs of slowing actual momentum, and the outcome of tariff negotiations is a key variable for the market. The eurozone economy has positive signs but may face short - term callback pressure, while the Japanese yen may be supported [10]. - China's manufacturing industry is moderately recovering, with the service industry driving the overall economic prosperity. There is still room for subsequent economic recovery [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.54%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 1.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, and the four stock index futures showed differentiated performance. The market was driven by the release of June PMI data on Monday and the news of the relaxation of Sino - US economic and trade restrictions on Friday afternoon. Market trading activity declined slightly compared with last week. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03% this week, with a change of - 0.04BP. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%. The short - term Treasury bond futures were weak, and the long - term ones were strong. Given the current weak economic recovery and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 0.36%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.84%. The improvement in trade relations and domestic over - capacity reduction policies are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.56%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.62%. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The eurozone inflation is cooling, and the economy is expected to be boosted, but it still faces short - term tariff uncertainties. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to study issues such as the in - depth promotion of the national unified market and high - quality development of the marine economy. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee reviewed the "Regulations on the Work of the Party Central Committee's Decision - Making and Coordination Institutions". Three departments issued tax - incentive policies for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued all the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project lists for this year [14]. - **International News**: Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The International Settlement Bank warned that US inflation may return. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade - agreement negotiations [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In June, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, and the composite PMI was 50.7. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan this week [6][11][19]. - **US**: In June, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, the ADP employment number was - 33,000, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 147,000 [17]. - **EU**: In June, the eurozone manufacturing PMI final value was 49.5, the CPI annual rate initial value was 2%, and the May unemployment rate was 6.3% [17]. - **Other Countries**: The UK's Q1 GDP annual rate final value was 1.3%, Germany's June CPI monthly rate initial value was 0, and France's June manufacturing PMI final value was 48.1 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include Germany's May seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate, the eurozone's May retail sales monthly rate, Japan's May trade balance, China's June CPI and PPI annual rates, and the US's May wholesale sales monthly rate, among others [84].

据环球网消息，7月2日，路透社消息称美国政府撤销对华乙烷出口限制，8艘滞留船只驶往中国，中美 贸易现新动向。这事得从6月说起。当时美国商务部限制美企对华出口乙烷，导致6月美对华出口量直接 归零，8艘装满乙烷的船只能在墨西哥湾漂着，美国企业急得不行，到处找别的买家。可数据摆在那， 中国一直是美国乙烷的大市场，之前中国进口的美国乙烷占其出口量的一半，5月份美国还每天向中国 出口25.7万桶呢。 现在限制一解除，船马上就往中国开，这说明啥？说明美国企业根本离不开中国市场。不只是乙烷，美 国还宣布不再限制对华出口芯片设计软件，西门子接到通知后第一时间就恢复了中国客户的权限。之前 中美在稀土出口问题上也达成了一致，美国相应取消了一系列对华限制措施。这些动作可不多见，要知 道以前美国尤其是特朗普时期，对华态度可强硬了，老喜欢挥舞关税大棒，觉得这样就能让中国让步。 特朗普在美国国会大厦（资料图） 但事实是，中国不仅扛住了压力，还让美国自己调整了政策。从这能看出几个变化。首先，中国这波应 对得漂亮。美国以为加关税就能让中国妥协，结果中国没屈服，反而让美国不得不取消限制。这就像给 美国上了一课，让他们明白得好好和中国打交道。其 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源： 内容来自半导体芯闻综合 。 美国取消了对中国芯片设计软件开发商和乙烷生产商的出口限制，这进一步表明中美贸易紧张局势 正在缓和，包括北京在稀土问题上做出让步。 "随着美国和中国继续遵守这项框架协议，我们将看到很多限制措施取消。回到二月/三月的现 状，"这位未获授权对媒体发言并拒绝透露姓名的消息人士表示。 西门子在一份声明中表示，在最近收到美国商务部关于不再对中国客户实施出口管制限制的通知 后，该公司已恢复对中国客户的销售和支持。 新思科技表示，公司于 7 月 2 日收到美国商务部工业与安全局来函，通知基于 2025 年 5 月 29 日收到的限制令所实施的对华出口管制措施现予以撤销，即时生效。公司正恢复近期受限产品在中 国市场的供应和全面客户支持。 Cadence也表示，美国已取消对中国芯片设计软件的出口限制，并正在恢复受影响客户对软件和技 术的访问。 据路透社看到的公司致员工的一封信显示，新思科技预计将在三个工作日内完成系统更新，以恢复 中国客户的访问和支持。 包括新思科技、Cadence设计系统公司和西门子在内的全球三大电子设计自动化 (EDA) 软件开发 ...