Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong. The core logic is that after the release of bearish sentiment from the previous sharp correction, a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures, and the rebound in coal futures prices drives the methanol futures to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract closed 0.17% lower at 2376 yuan/ton last Friday night, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [5]. - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][5]. Market Supply and Demand - With the continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity, the internal supply pressure is increasing. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations. The ports are in a inventory - building cycle, while downstream demand has entered the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand structure [5]. Market Driving Factors - A new round of supply - side reform may come as the domestic high - level meeting emphasized governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5]. - The rebound in coal futures prices drives the domestic methanol futures [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market has likely fully priced in policy expectations. In May 2025, both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were fully implemented, and with a 90 - day exemption for Sino - US tariff issues, Q2 economic data may be good. There is little possibility of the market trading monetary policy easing in the short term. Fiscal policy is adopting a "debt resolution + development" dual - wheel drive strategy, and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies will likely continue. For real estate policies, although comprehensive stimulus measures have been introduced, the key lies in the substantial recovery of consumer demand, and the policy transmission efficiency may be in the stage from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change" [5][38]. - In 2025, an abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. Since 2025, the monetary policy's statement on liquidity has changed from "maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity" to "maintaining abundant liquidity". After correcting the bond market's over - reaction in Q1, the money market was relatively loose in Q2. The central bank ensured market liquidity through various measures during special periods. With the downward trend of bank - based fund lending last week, the central bank may use outright reverse repurchases to ease market liquidity next week [5][39]. - The supply shock in Q3 may be relatively controllable. The net financing rhythm of national debt in 2025 is faster than the same period. As of July 11, its net financing accounted for 56.66% of the whole year. Local debt supply may impact the market, and the new special bond issuance scale in Q3 may be large. However, due to the market's increased adaptability to supply shocks and the alleviation of the pumping effect by accelerated fiscal expenditures, fiscal supply may not be the core factor causing the bond market to weaken [5][40]. - In 2025, external interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has marginally weakened. Although the external environment is more complex, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized after the Fed's interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs on the domestic market's pricing may become dull, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better than previous years [7][43]. - The traditional factors causing the "seasonal weakness" of the bond market in Q3 may have limited impact on the Q3 2025 bond market. Currently, the market trading sentiment is active. With institutions like state - owned banks and rural commercial banks supporting the market and the possible decline of insurance companies'预定利率 in Q3, the bond market may show a trend of "easy to fall, hard to rise". But the downward space of long - term interest rates may need more factors to catalyze. The investment portfolio of "short - term credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered for allocation, and the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds can be selected for trading [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "Seasonal Weakness" of the Bond Market in Q3 - From 2021 - 2024, the bond market in Q3 showed intensified fluctuations. From 2021 - 2023, it presented a typical "V - shaped" trend, while in 2024, it had multiple staged rebounds in a downward trend [2][11]. - In 2021, the bond market in Q3 had a "first down, then up" pattern, affected by "RRR cut driving interest rates down → economic data and policy expectation correction → supply pressure disturbance" [2][12]. - In 2022, the core logic of the bond market's weakness in Q3 was "economic expectation improvement + marginal tightening of the money market + Fed's interest rate hikes" [2][19]. - In 2023, the bond market in Q3 was mainly affected by "exchange rate pressure + neutral liquidity + stabilization of the fundamentals", leading to increased volatility [2][29]. - In 2024, the core driving factor for the multiple staged rebounds of the bond market in Q3 was "policy expectation changes" [2][33]. 3.2 Traditional Factors May Have Limited Impact on Q3 2025 Bond Market - Market has fully priced in policy expectations. Monetary policy easing is unlikely to be traded in the short term. Fiscal and real estate policies are in a stage of effectiveness accumulation [5][38]. - An abundant liquidity environment will be maintained. The central bank will ensure market liquidity through various measures, and may use outright reverse repurchases next week [5][39]. - Supply shock in Q3 may be controllable. National debt net financing rhythm is faster, and local debt supply may impact the market, but overall, fiscal supply may not be the core factor for the bond market's weakness [5][40]. - External interference factors have increased, but the impact of tariffs on pricing has weakened. The RMB exchange rate has stabilized, and the constraints of overseas factors on the bond market will be better [7][43]. 3.3 Important Matters - In June 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase year - on - year, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. PPI continued to decline year - on - year [44]. - The Ministry of Finance extended the assessment cycle of state - owned commercial insurance companies' performance indicators, adjusting the "net asset yield" assessment method [45]. 3.4 Money Market - Last week, the central bank's net open - market reverse repurchase operation was - 226.5 billion yuan, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature next week. The money market was relatively loose, with DR001 below the policy rate [46][47]. - In the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) market, city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale last week. Except for rural commercial banks, other commercial banks were net lenders. The term spread between 1Y and 3M NCD issuance rates widened, and the 1Y state - owned bank NCD issuance rate reached around 1.6% [46][59]. 3.5 Bond Market - At the beginning of July, the issuance and net financing of national debt were stable, while local debt net financing was slow. New 20 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds will be issued next week [67]. - Last week, the bond market was in an adjustment stage under the stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds and national development bank bonds changed, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year national development bank bonds increased slightly [78]. - The liquidity premium of the 10 - year treasury bond active and sub - active bonds returned to 2 - 3BP. The term spread of 10 - 1 year treasury bonds narrowed slightly, and the long - term and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spreads narrowed [81][85][88]. 3.6 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading decreased but remained at around 8 trillion yuan. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks and rural commercial banks increased their positions, while securities firms and funds reduced their positions [92][101]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market was basically flat month - on - month and slightly increased year - on - year [92].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年7月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价先跌后涨，宏观影响较大，现货成交一般，下游刚需为主。产业链上，矿价小幅 回落，海运费由于运力不足或可能继续上涨，镍铁价格偏弱，成本线重心下降。不锈钢交易所仓单继续 流出，7、8月是传统消费淡季，需求仍不佳。新能源汽车产销数据较好，有利于镍的需求提升，但同时 要注意新能源车的供给侧改革。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122150，基差760，偏多 3、库存：LME库存206178，+1440，上交所仓单20442，-163，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2508：20均线上下震荡偏空运行。 不 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-14 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和 ...

石化&化工产品细分品类多，只能抓龙头炼油和乙烯能力。 2016年8月，国务院办公厅印发《关于石化产业调结构促转型增效益的指导意见》，严控基础化工品、 炼化烯烃、煤化工等新建产能，以至于中国炼油能力增长比较和缓，一直到2024年之前并未出现明显的 过剩。但是2024年情况发生了变化，需求端出现了成品油达峰衰退。 乙烯和芳烃在"十三五"是比较鼓励的，一方面是2015年自给率还比较低，另一方面油转化比较符合成品 油需求达峰的预期。但是这造成了后续乙烯和的产能过剩。 因此主要化工品2025年上半年平均利润历史分位数均在50%以下，比如煤制丙烯、油头丙烯、乙烷裂 解、油头乙烯、PDH利润在历史10年的分位数分别为36%、36%、36%、27%、0%，合成氨利润在历史 5年的分位数分别为17%。 2025年反内卷的可能抓手 智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，中国石化行业正面临结构性产能过剩挑战。2024年成品油需 求达峰衰退导致炼油能力过剩，而乙烯、芳烃等化工品因前期政策鼓励也出现产能过剩。2025年上半年 主要化工品利润分位数普遍低于50%，其中PDH利润更是跌至历史十年最低点(0%)。行业亟需通过淘汰 落后产能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Three-Year Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Elderly Services and Aging Work in Hangzhou (2025-2027)" is crucial for addressing the challenges of an aging population and improving the quality of life for citizens [1] Group 1: Action Plan Overview - The plan aims to optimize a community-based elderly service supply structure that integrates home care, community support, institutional expertise, and medical care [1] - By 2027, all elderly residents in Hangzhou will have access to basic elderly services, and a recognizable "happy elderly care at the doorstep" model will be established [1] Group 2: Ten Major Actions - The plan includes ten major actions such as collaborative iteration of elderly service networks, reform and enhancement of elderly institutions, and ensuring basic support for vulnerable elderly groups [1] - Actions also focus on city-wide access to elderly services, integration of health and wellness throughout the aging process, and empowerment of the silver economy [1] Group 3: Specific Initiatives - The "City-Wide Elderly Service Access Action" aims to enhance service satisfaction and happiness among the elderly by optimizing meal services and expanding educational opportunities [2] - The initiative will include the establishment of a star management system for elderly meal services and the transformation of elderly dining facilities into community-friendly options [2] - The "City-Wide Learning Service" will strengthen cooperation in elderly education, breaking down regional barriers to provide accessible learning opportunities [2] Group 4: Tourism and Talent Development - The "City-Wide Travel Service" will create a brand for elderly tourism, offering over ten themed routes that focus on cultural heritage, ecological wellness, and rural revitalization [3] - The plan emphasizes the enhancement of the elderly care workforce through regular training, international exchanges, and the establishment of a skill-based evaluation system to attract talent [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with cyclical sectors leading the gains. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were among the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were among the top three losers. The core driver of the market was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, which led to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. With the policy focusing on the supply side, the supply and demand are moving towards balance, which is beneficial for price index repair and has a positive impact on the stock market's profitability. The strong market last week was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths. The bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue as long as there are no unexpected negative factors. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market continued to rise, with cyclical sectors leading. The real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors were the top three gainers, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors were the top three losers. The market's core driver was the expectation of supply-side reform and the "small essay" about the restart of shantytown renovation on the demand side, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth sectors. The market's strength was also supported by a high market risk appetite, including factors such as the non-escalation of trade friction risks, new highs in the US stock market, and positive domestic policy paths [1]. - **Future Outlook**: Currently, although the index is at a relatively high level, the market risk appetite remains positive. Without unexpected negative factors, the bullish pattern of the market is expected to continue. The factors that could reverse the trend may be intensified external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment, which are difficult to predict in advance and need to be dynamically tracked. This week, attention should be paid to the release of domestic economic data [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy, progress of the "anti-involution" policy implementation, and expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short-term Strategy**: For intraday trading, the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts can be used as a reference. The stop-loss and take-profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating ranges for the IF2507, IH2507, IC2507, and IM2507 contracts are expected to be between 3894 and 4095 points, 2686 and 2810 points, 5842 and 6234 points, and 6227 and 6646 points respectively [4]. - **Cross-variety Strategy**: Due to the unclear trend, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Market Data Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.02%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.08%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 1.34%, Germany's DAX index rose 1.97%, and France's CAC40 index rose 1.73%. In the Asia-Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.61%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen. Last week, all major market indices also showed an upward trend [8]. - **Industry Performance in Spot Market**: In the CSI 300 index, most industries rose last week, with the pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and industrial sectors leading the gains. In the CSI 500 index, most industries also rose, with the financial real estate, energy, and raw material sectors leading the gains [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Performance**: Last week, the IM2507 contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the main contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased. The basis (futures - spot) of the main contracts of stock index futures and the cross-variety ratios also showed certain trends [12][14][20]. - **Index Valuation**: Based on weekly data, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.93 times, the CSI 300 index is 13.02 times, the SSE 50 index is 11.18 times, the CSI 500 index is 27.66 times, and the CSI 1000 index is 36.02 times [21][22]. - **Market Fundamentals**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds showed certain trends. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [24].

【导读】 上纬新材开盘1秒钟直接封上涨停板，涨幅达20%； 贵金属概念股震荡拉升，电力股集体 走高 中国基金报记者 李智 新的一周开始了，一起来看下最新的市场情况及资讯。 7 月 14 日早盘， A 股三大指数集体高开，随后震荡调整。截至发稿，沪指涨 0.35% ，深 成指跌 0.14% ，创业板指跌 0.67% 。 板块上来看，贵金属概念股震荡拉升，电力股集体走高，多元金融、稳定币、房地产等板块 震荡调整。 | | | 7月8日晚间，上纬新材发布公告称，智元机器人至少收购其63.62%股份。待本次股权交易完成后，上 纬新材控股股东将变更为智元机器人及其管理团队共同持股的主体，实际控制人将变更为邓泰华，核心 团队包括稚晖君等。 | < W | 上纬新材(688585) | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 交易中 07-14 10:45:04 科 融 | | | | | | | | | | | 16.14 额 1896.59万 股本 4.03亿 市盈 70.2 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite external pressures and challenges, China's exports have shown robust growth in the first half of the year, with a historical milestone of over 13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [1][2] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, exports from private enterprises reached 8.52 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3%, while foreign-funded enterprises exported 3.49 trillion yuan, up by 5.4%, and state-owned enterprises exported 968.73 billion yuan, increasing by 3.8% [1] - The number of exporting enterprises in China has steadily increased, surpassing 500,000 in 2023, with an 8.5% growth in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Exports to both traditional and emerging markets have seen growth, with double-digit increases in exports to ASEAN, Central Asia, and Africa, while maintaining stable growth to traditional markets such as the EU, Japan, and the UK [1] Group 3: Product Innovation - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, with significant increases in high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment, all exceeding 20% growth [2] - The proportion of self-owned brands in high-tech product exports reached 32.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Companies are increasingly adapting to international market demands by offering customized products, such as solar-powered phones for areas with power shortages and sand-resistant engines for desert regions [2]

今天面对的课题，要比十年前更复杂 上一次供给侧改革是十年前的事了，当时我还在上学，对宏观经济变化的体感不多。找了位前辈聊了会，他表示去产能前后的体感都不是很明显，改之前 没觉得有多坏，改之后也没觉得有多好。 但这次的产能过剩，一直是社会讨论的热点。从宏观数据到社会，再到生活层面，都有不少感触。 商场的空置率、租金水平、消费信心、PPI、CPI等等，十年前之所以体感不那么强烈，是因为问题主要出在了生产端，也就是PPI。但如今，生产端的过 剩已经蔓延到了消费端，PPI的持续低迷已经开始压制物价水平。 图1：2000—2024年中国PPI、CPI走势，来源：统计局、wind 从PPI到CPI的传导只是我们当下面临的困境之一。还有地产衰退造成的居民资产负债表恶化，进一步对消费形成抑制；以及产能过剩导致的企业利润水平 下滑，进一步造成失业群体的扩大、收入/收入预期恶化，也形成了消费抑制。 所以当下面临的问题，恐怕要比十年前复杂不少。 很多人觉得改革势在必行。但我还是先说我的观点——当下的问题太复杂了，单刀直入很可能伤了元气，或许曲线救国更合适。 我举个例子，如果把国家看作一个人。十年前这个人只是得了产能过剩的病，那么对 ...