供需双强支撑价格上涨，关注库存及需求拐点 新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 库存端：月内库存持续降低，各环节库存均出现明显下滑。根据SMM月度库存统计，总库存64560吨，总库存降环 比变化-19674万吨，其中锂盐厂22530吨，下游库存42030吨。月底去库速度有减缓趋势，需关注库存拐点。 12 月氢氧化锂市场价格跟随碳酸锂走势大幅上涨。截止到12月31日国内电池级氢氧化锂市场均价水平在110300元 /吨，工业级氢氧化锂均价水平在103730元/吨。受上游碳酸锂期货价格强势上涨及锂辉石原料成本持续高位的双重 支撑，氢氧化锂生产成本具备刚性支持，市场底部坚实。氢氧化锂产线整体开工负荷偏低，头部锂盐厂产能被长 协订单锁定，加之柔性产线向价差更优的碳酸锂倾斜以及个别装置检修，导致现货市场流通资源持续偏紧状态， 持货商惜售挺价意愿强烈，报价维持高位区间。下游三元材料企业采购以执行长单为主，散单市场保持刚性、小 批量的生产需求支撑，对当前高价货源的接受度有限，尤其在长协谈判周期内，市场观望情绪较浓。本月内氢氧 化锂与碳酸锂价差持续存在，刺激了部分碳化需求及贸易环节的询盘积极性，为市场带来一定增量。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Nickel - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong V - shaped reversal pattern, rising 13.5% for the month and hitting a new high since 2025. Indonesia's plan to cut the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 34% and the possible 2% tax on associated products like cobalt are the core driving forces for the price rebound [2]. - The supply of primary nickel increased steadily in December due to price recovery and capacity ramping up. The consumption in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector was promising. Nickel inventory was still accumulating, and high inventory would suppress the future rebound space of nickel prices [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, but with positive policies from Indonesia and nickel's long - term bottom - side oscillation, it is expected to remain strong [4]. Stainless Steel - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel showed a pattern of bottom lifting, passive following, and high - level oscillation, rising 6.15% for the month and approaching the annual high, driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel [4]. - The supply of stainless steel decreased in December 2025, while the demand increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. However, the overall weak demand situation in the traditional off - season has not fundamentally changed. The social inventory of stainless steel showed four consecutive drops [5]. - With some macro - positive factors realized and four - week inventory depletion, but the cold downstream demand in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, following the trend of Shanghai nickel [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Sector 1.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel started at 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, dropped to 111,700 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 130,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.5% [11]. 1.2 Primary Nickel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the domestic refined nickel production was 31,400 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 0.37% and a month - on - month change of +21.71%. The expected domestic refined nickel production in 2025 was 390,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's expected annual refined nickel production was 80,000 tons, with new projects like Dingxing and Yongheng releasing capacity and Qingmeibang starting production in the fourth quarter [15]. 1.3 Refined Nickel Consumption Situation - In November 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 25,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.66%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 348,400 tons, a 37.15% year - on - year increase. The demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector had good development, and the overall nickel demand remained stable [34][35]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 31, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, a 11.7% increase from the previous month, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,300 tons, a 0.4% increase, indicating a more relaxed supply pattern and suppressing the future rebound space of nickel prices [37]. Stainless Steel Sector 2.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel started at 12,375 yuan/ton, dropped to 12,290 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 13,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.15% [41]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the stainless - steel production decreased. The estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2671 million tons, a 6.47% month - on - month decrease and a 5.09% year - on - year decrease. The production schedule for January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a 1.83% month - on - month increase and a 16.27% year - on - year increase [43]. 2.3 Stainless Steel Consumption Situation - In December 2025, the overall stainless - steel consumption increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. The demand in the downstream pipe - making and profile sectors was affected by the traditional off - season, and the overall weak demand situation had not fundamentally changed [51]. 2.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream market was 1,005,136 tons, a 3.55% week - on - week decrease. The inventory showed four consecutive drops due to factors such as the increase in steel - mill prices and active merchant sales at the end of the month [59]. 2.5 Cost - In December, the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron continued to rise, and the stainless - steel cost continued to increase. The costs of different processes for smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel changed to varying degrees [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the cost - side support for PX and PTA weakened slightly, but their prices rose significantly due to the expectation of tight supply and demand for PX in the first half of next year, with improved profitability. However, the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed the raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of the raw materials. The processing profit of PF was compressed due to weak textile and clothing demand, and the downstream of PR was weak, with only rigid - demand replenishment [1]. - In the short term, PX has a risk of retracement, but the medium - term expectation is still good. The report suggests short - term retracement for PX/PTA/PF/PR and mid - term buying on dips for hedging. For PTA and PX, the 2605 - 2609 month - spread can be bought after retracement [1][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - In December, Brent crude oil price broke through the lower edge of the $60 - 65/barrel range, reaching around $58/barrel. The medium - term fundamental pressure on crude oil still suppressed oil prices. PX and PTA prices rose significantly, with PXN reaching around $380/ton and PTA processing fee recovering to below 300 yuan/ton, but the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of raw materials. PF processing profit was compressed, and PR basis weakened with a narrowing of the spot processing fee [1][13]. - Regarding the basis strategy, the PTA basis is expected to fluctuate in January, the PX basis is expected to oscillate, the PF basis is expected to adjust passively with raw materials, and the PR basis is expected to move within a range [12]. 3.2 PX and PTA Supply - PX supply: In 2026, the new PX production capacity that can actually be realized is mainly 2 million tons from Liaoning Huajin Aramco, and the total new production capacity including the expansion of Fujia Dahua is expected to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. In December, foreign PX plants operated at a high load, and production continued to increase. There are no maintenance plans in January, and PX production is expected to remain high. Overseas PX operation rate has an upward expectation [2][43]. - PTA supply: 8.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity have been put into operation this year, and there are no new production capacity plans in 2026. In December, due to low profitability, the maintenance volume of PTA plants remained high. In January, some plants will restart, and PTA load and production are expected to increase slightly compared with December [3][43]. 3.3 Inventory - PX inventory: The PX balance sheet is expected to accumulate about 80,000 tons in December. The current PX social inventory is at a seasonally low level, and the inventories in Japan and South Korea are moderately low. In January, the PTA load increase is limited, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a loose balance, with an expected inventory accumulation of about 90,000 tons [2][55][58]. - PTA inventory: The Chinese PTA social inventory decreased in December, with an estimated de - stocking of about 200,000 tons. In January, although the maintenance loss is still large, the polyester load on the demand side is expected to decline, and PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory (about 70,000 tons). The near - end contradiction is not significant, but the inventory accumulation will increase in February [3][58]. 3.4 Demand - In December, domestic trade orders weakened, the weaving load declined rapidly, and the grey fabric inventory began to accumulate. Foreign trade orders started to place seasonal orders from late December, but the overall level was lower than that of the same period last year. In December, due to the rapid rise of raw materials, weaving enterprises made concentrated replenishment, and filament inventory decreased to a low level. Polyester plants operated at a relatively high load in December, but moderately reduced production at the end of the month [67]. - In January, the downstream shows a weakening trend. The recent rise in raw material prices has not promoted the sales of downstream drawn yarns and grey fabrics. The price is difficult to pass on, and the downstream operation rate may decline rapidly. If downstream enterprises stop production in advance, polyester enterprises may be forced to reduce production in advance or increase the maintenance intensity during the Spring Festival [67]. 3.5 PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - In December, the inventory of staple fiber plants remained stable at a low level, and they maintained a high - load operation. With the increase in raw materials, the profit of downstream polyester yarns decreased significantly. In January, the load may decline rapidly due to weak downstream demand, and the increase is less than that of futures. As demand weakens in January, the load is expected to decline from a high level, and the risk of high - priced raw materials increases. The market mainly purchases on demand with a wait - and - see attitude [4][91][93]. 3.6 PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Supply: In mid - to late December, two 300,000 - ton plants of Zhuhai Huaren restarted one after another, and the new plant of Fuhai was put into production in January, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. - Demand: In the first half of December, the terminal made concentrated replenishment at low prices, and the factory inventory decreased. In the second half, after the rapid rise of raw materials, the terminal was cautious about chasing the rise, and the procurement was relatively rigid. In January, there are both restart and maintenance plans, the demand is weak, the supply - demand is expected to remain weak, and the processing fee space is limited [5][111].

果蔬品月报 | 2026-01-04 苹果优果压制走货，红枣关注节日氛围 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 风险 产区天气情况、节日备货进度、销区走货情况 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面，截止12月底收盘，苹果2605合约9120元/吨，环比上月下跌459元/吨，跌幅4.79%。据钢联数据，现货方 面，山东栖霞地区80#一二级现货价格8200元/吨，环比上月上涨700元/吨，现货基差AP05-920，环比上涨1159。陕 西洛川地区70#以上半商品现货价格8400元/吨，环比上月上涨100元/吨，现货基差AP05-720，环比上涨559。 近期市场资讯，截止2025年第52周，农业农村部监测的六种水果批发均价为7.82元/公斤，环比第51周上涨0.25元/ 公斤，环比上月上涨0.51元/公斤。2024-2025产季库存结束，根据卓创资讯的数据，截至2025年12月25日，全国苹 果冷库库存量约为702.1万吨，环比上月冷库库存下降27.25万吨。从区域分布情况来看，主产区中，山东产地冷库 苹果库存量约265.5万吨，陕西产地冷库库存量约196.64万吨；其余非主产 ...

化工月报 | 2026-01-04 原料坚挺，橡胶成本支撑仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 原料与价差：泰国胶水54.20泰铢/公斤（+0.00），泰国杯胶51.10泰铢/公斤（+0.00），云南胶水14200元/吨（-100）， 海南胶水13900元/吨（+0），RU基差-355元/吨（+65），NR基差458元/吨（+35），BR基差-120元/吨（+45）。 现货方面：云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前一 日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1870美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 供应方面：天然橡胶青岛港口入库率7.58%（+1.94%），其中一般贸易入库率8.42%（+2.89%），保税库入库率3.17% （-3.05%）；高顺顺丁开工率76.92%（+0.66%）。中国天然橡胶月度产量137200吨（+23700），中国顺丁橡胶月度产 量143620吨（+13500）。 生产利润方面： ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. During the week of January 2, the main March contract of US soybeans dropped 2.4%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74% [1]. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices rose first and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), it is expected that both Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices will fluctuate [1][5]. Detailed Summaries by Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals (December 29, 2025 - January 2, 2026) - Chinese purchases of US soybeans were limited, with a cumulative sales volume of approximately 36.7 tons to China and unknown destinations and 10 tons to Egypt in the week of December 29 - January 2. As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season totaled about 603 tons [1]. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1401 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47% [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 82%, behind the 93% of the same period last year, gradually approaching the end [1]. - According to the January 2 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and temperatures will be "low first and then high"; in Argentina, precipitation will be less (improving from January 8), and temperatures will be low [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Trading volume increased week - on - week. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 20 tons, compared with about 16 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up volume decreased slightly week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 18.2 tons, compared with about 18.3 tons in the previous week [3]. - The basis increased slightly week - on - week. The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - Inventory increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 103 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [3]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Soybean prices were stable and slightly stronger. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions increased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, remained flat in some inland areas, and the sales price in the sales areas of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, the planned auction volume was about 19 tons, the actual transaction volume was about 15.59 tons, the reserve price was 3950 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 4014 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, but attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. As the Spring Festival approached, there was restocking demand in all market segments, and prices may rise [4]. Post - holiday Forecast (January 5 - 9, 2026) - For soybean meal, pay attention to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, weekly US soybean export sales reports) and South American weather [5]. - For soybeans, due to the strong pre - holiday policy sentiment but the weak external soybean market, it is expected that the domestic futures market will fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise. Pay attention to the subsequent state - reserve release [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/m³ for 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - As of the week of December 26, the daily average shipment volume and inventory of the four major ports remained unchanged from the previous week, with a total inventory of 1.9131 million cubic meters [6]. - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern with a weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 26 of which were going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for partial unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - Detailed information on the departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time of 33 ships from New Zealand in December is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2668 million cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [12]. - A table shows the inventory and daily shipment volume of major domestic ports over multiple time periods, including inventory changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan/m³, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 22.5 yuan/m³, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/m³ [18]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot price data of various tree species and specifications of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, showing that most prices remained unchanged from the previous week [21]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of mainstream tree species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 40 + radiata pine [41]. 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of January 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1877.00 points, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 719 points, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.003, a 0.06% decrease from the previous week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.3% to 1.736 [56]. - A table shows the changes in freight - related indices and exchange rates over multiple time periods, including the comparison with the previous week and four weeks ago [55].

Market Performance - On the last trading day before the holiday, the Dalian japonica rice futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract slightly increasing by 0.30% to 3618.00 yuan/ton [1] Market News - According to the USDA, as of the week ending December 18, net sales of corn for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 2.202 million tons, up from 1.744 million tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, net sales were 21,000 tons, compared to 0 tons the prior week; corn export shipments for 2025/2026 reached 1.759 million tons, an increase from 1.446 million tons the week before [1] - The Algerian Ministry of Agriculture announced plans to import 1.15 million tons of feed corn by the end of February 2026 due to domestic supply shortages, aiming to establish a national feed corn inventory to ensure stable supply and market stability [1] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) projected that Brazil's corn exports in December would be 3.52 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 6.35 million tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggests a short - term equilibrium in the market trend and poor trading operability [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, implies a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, shows a short - term balanced market trend and poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading opportunities [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policy, showing different trends. Some metals may continue to fluctuate, while others may face price adjustments or trend changes [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper futures closed with a negative candlestick in a volatile manner. The spot copper price was 98,820 yuan, with a Shanghai discount of 190 yuan. The LME market has a large number of in - the - money call options. After the holiday, wait for overseas institutions to revise their copper price expectations. Continue the previous options combination strategy, and pay attention to smelter production schedules, social inventory changes, and trading volume shrinkage, as the price may continue to decline [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The Shanghai aluminum futures rose, and the spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widened. The fundamentals of the aluminum market lack driving force, but the upward trend following the sector remains. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at 23,000 yuan. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by 100 yuan to 22,000 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years. The alumina market is in significant surplus. With the decline in bauxite prices, costs have room to fall, and there is still profit in cash - cost accounting. In the short term, the decline of alumina spot prices is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [3] Zinc - The TC is at a low level, smelter maintenance continues, and the import window is closed. The supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the overall rebound trend remains. The consumption outlook for January is moderately optimistic. With the start of the 14th Five - Year Plan, there are high expectations for a good start. National subsidies may return, and there is still demand for downstream pre - holiday stockpiling. Consumption may not be weak in the off - season, but production is still a drag, constraining the upside of Shanghai zinc. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Another Section) - Maintenance of primary aluminum delivery brand smelters continues, and the SMM aluminum social inventory is less than 20,000 tons, supporting the price increase. However, battery enterprises conduct year - end inventory checks and suspend spot procurement for 3 - 7 days. Shanghai lead faces obvious pressure around 17,500 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is stronger in the domestic market than in the overseas market, and the spot import window is open. Affected by low - priced overseas aluminum ingots, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom near the cost, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose and then fell, with active market trading. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reduced the nickel ore quota and will revise the mineral reference price formula in early 2026. Near the end of the year, the downstream's purchasing intention weakened, and the continuous high spot premium reduced traders' willingness to hold goods. The spot trading was relatively quiet. In the stainless - steel market, the rising ferro - nickel price pushed up the cost, but the overall profit was restored. The previous stainless - steel production cuts had limited impact, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream's purchasing intention was mainly in the form of more inquiries. The high - nickel ferro - nickel was quoted at 912 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price began to show a rebound transmission. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 892,000 tons. Due to policy disturbances in the nickel market, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [7] Tin - The trading volume of Shanghai tin futures decreased to the level at the beginning of December. The spot tin was reported at 326,450 yuan, with a real - time premium of 1,800 yuan. There is no new news about the geopolitical situation recently. Pay attention to the mining conference that may be held around the New Year. The volatility has converged from a high level. Hold the 350,000 sell - call options again and observe the adjustment range [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price opened high and then fell, with active market trading but large differences. Some holders' previous goods have been pre - ordered, and there are frequent inquiries. However, the mid - and downstream's acceptance of high prices is limited. They have sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling and are cautious about high prices. The overall market trading is relatively quiet. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 40,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 52,000 tons. The inventory in the mid - stream is relatively high, providing some support to the spot market. The latest Australian ore price is 1,565 US dollars, and the ore price remains strong. Technically, the lithium price has entered the trend - ending stage, and risk prevention should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Recently, some silicon enterprises have reduced production, but the overall scale is less than expected. On the demand side, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month, and the operating rate of organic silicon is expected to continue to decline under the implementation of emission - reduction policies. The latest SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons month - on - month, and the Xinjiang factory inventory still has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Overall, the recent strengthening of the industrial silicon futures price and the divergence between the futures and spot prices are due to the expected large - scale production cuts at the end of December. However, the implementation is slow, and the demand is under marginal pressure. The trend may turn to oscillatory consolidation, and further observe the changes in Xinjiang's production [10] Polysilicon - The trading activity of polysilicon futures has declined. After a pre - holiday correction, it turned to oscillation. On the spot side, the price of N - type compound feedstock remains stable at 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month. However, compared with the recent production cuts in the silicon wafer sector, the polysilicon market still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation. In the expected dimension, the industry's anti - involution trend continues, and policy support is sustainable. With stricter trading supervision, the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [11]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 螺纹钢市场周报 现货成交清淡 螺纹期价区间波动 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 「 周度要点小结2」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月31日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3122（+4），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3330（+20）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。184.39（+2.71），同比（-31.91）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需202.68（-5.96），（同比-16.9）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存434.25（-18.29），（同比+34.51）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.23%，环比上周增加1.30个百分点，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示，F ...