每经AI快讯，11月17日，碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅9%，报95200元/吨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to take a short - position when the price is high [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 14, 2025, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the price of log 2601 was 788.5, up 5.0 (0.64%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 795.5, up 2.0 (0.25%); while log 2511 and log 2605 remained unchanged [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable, with a 0% change. The prices of different specifications of radiation pine and spruce in these ports did not change from the previous day [2] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost on November 14 was 808.86 yuan, down 0.91 yuan from the previous day, with a 0% change. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.094, down 0.01 from the previous day, also with a 0% change [2] Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 24.7 (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54.0, up 8.0 (17.39%) [2] - **Weekly Forecast (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16)**: The number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a decrease of 4 from the previous week, a 25% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume was about 39.5 (in ten thousand cubic meters), a decrease of 13.6 from the previous week, a 26% week - on - week decrease [3] Inventory - **Main Port Inventory (Weekly)**: As of November 7, the total inventory in Chinese ports was 293.0 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 5.0 (1.74%) from October 31. In Shandong, it was 191.50 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 3.2 (1.70%); in Jiangsu, it was 82.45 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.2 (0.24%) [2][3] Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of November 7, the average daily outbound volume in China was 6.63 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.35 (6%) from October 31. In Shandong, it was 3.79 (in ten thousand cubic meters), up 0.60 (19%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 (in ten thousand cubic meters), down 0.15 (-6%) [3]

| 棕榈油：短期利空暂充分，关注产地去库进程 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆端缺乏驱动，震荡运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：美农报告无超额利多，或跟随美豆回调 | 5 | | 豆一：或跟随豆类市场调整 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 7 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 8 | | 棉花：新棉上市压力仍压制期价 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：近弱远强 | 11 | | 生猪：肥标价差走弱，降温涨价预期落空 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年11月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 17 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期利空暂充分，关注产地去库进程 豆油：美豆端缺乏驱动，震荡运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,644 | 涨跌幅 -1.23% | 收盘价（夜盘） 8,712 | 涨跌幅 0.79% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-17 生猪价格上涨乏力，玉米关注上方 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货震荡偏弱，LH2601 合约报收 11775 元/吨，较前 周结算价下跌 1.01%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.96 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.02 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 14 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-114.81 元/头，环比下降 25.6 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-205.64 元/头，环比下降 30.1 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.38，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格缓慢下跌，周初部分企业出栏有限，局 部成交略有溢价；但随着养殖场出栏积极性提高，散户挺价情绪松 动，叠加需求端整体欠佳，生猪价格承压下跌。目前来看，随着价 格下调后，养殖端低价认卖情绪降低，但考虑到需求端支撑有限， 难以对猪价形成强力提振，叠加前期二育补栏猪源或陆续出栏，阶 段性供强需弱格局难以扭转，生猪价格上涨动力不足，预计短期低 位震荡为主，后续继续重点关注养殖端出栏节奏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue until Iran restricts gas supply [1]. LLDPE & PP - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight inventory build - up under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Suggest to gradually stop losses and reduce positions for previous short positions as the market is still in an oversupply situation [5]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. Supply - side factors may keep raw material prices high, while demand is weak. The market is in a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and if raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further price decline; otherwise, prices may range between 15000 - 15500 [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash has a large - scale oversupply situation. Although the spot has rebounded recently, the long - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass sales have weakened recently, and although there is short - term demand support, the long - term outlook is also bearish due to the real - estate situation [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the main downstream alumina industry. Its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with supply remaining high and demand weakening, and its price is expected to continue to be weak [10]. Crude Oil - The crude oil market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Although recent news has supported prices, the upward space is limited due to OPEC+ production increase pressure and high US inventories. Brent crude may trade in the range of 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [11]. Ester Industry Chain - PX supply is relatively high, and although there is short - term demand support, the rebound is expected to be limited. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November but loose from December to Q1 next year, with limited price rebound space. Ethylene glycol is facing inventory build - up pressure. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand outlook, and bottle - chip supply - demand is loose [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down on November 14 compared to November 13, with decreases of 2.28% and 2.04% respectively. The regional spreads and basis also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, while port inventory increased by 1.75%, and social inventory increased by 0.49% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased, such as the external - purchased MTO装置开工率 which decreased by 2.38% [1]. LLDPE & PP - **Price and Spread**: L2601 and L2605 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 decreased slightly. The basis of PE and PP in North China and East China increased [5]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 3.35%, and trade - dealer inventory increased by 1.73% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.66%, and downstream加权开工率 decreased by 0.80%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 0.3% [5]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the basis and some spreads changed. For example, the full - latex basis increased by 29.66% [7]. - **Production and Consumption**: September production in some countries changed, and tire production and export also changed. For example, September Thai production decreased by 5.45%, and tire export in September decreased by 10.65% [7]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Tire开工率 was stable or decreased slightly, and inventory increased. For example, the bonded - area inventory increased by 0.40% [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions were mostly stable or decreased slightly. The basis of glass and soda ash increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 and weekly production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories increased [9]. - **Real - Estate Data**: Real - estate new - start, construction, completion, and sales areas all showed negative growth to varying degrees [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: Some PVC and caustic soda prices were stable or changed slightly. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda开工率 decreased slightly, and PVC总开工率 decreased by 3.2%. The downstream开工率 of both also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased on November 14 compared to November 13. Some spreads also changed significantly, such as the WTI M1 - M3 spread which increased by 82.35% [11]. - **Market Situation**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with a weak supply - demand pattern but short - term price support [11]. Ester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude increased, and downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows changed. PX, PTA, and MEG prices and spreads also changed [14]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, and MEG port inventory was expected to increase [14].

豆粕：美农报告无超额利多，或跟随美豆回调 豆一：或跟随豆类市场调整 2025 年 11 月 17 日 商 品 研 究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4215 | +93（+2.26%） 4196 | +14（+0.33%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3092 | +30（+0.98%） 3084 | +3（+0.10%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1122.5 | -23.5（-2.05%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 321.7 | -7.6（-2.31%） | n a | | | | 3070～3140， 较昨+20至+30； | 豆粕 （43%） 现货基差M2601+10， | 持平； 12月M2601+30/+50； | | | 山东 （元/吨） | ...

华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 研究报告 纯碱周报 成本托底，或支撑纯碱价格 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2601 价格在1188-1247 元/吨之间运行， 价格窄幅震荡。 截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2601 上涨 16 元/吨，周度涨 1.32%，报收 1226 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率环比下降，截止到 2025 年 11 月 13 日，国内纯碱产量 73.93 吨，环比下降 0.76 万吨，跌幅 1.01%。 其中，轻质碱产量 32.84 万吨，环比下降 0.37 万吨。重质碱产量 41.09 万吨，环比下降 0.39 万吨。 库存情况略有回落，截止到 2025 年 11 月 13 日，当周国内纯 碱厂家总库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 14, 2025, the A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.82%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1958.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures varieties showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international market conditions [2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On November 14, the A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13216.03 points, and the ChiNext Index at 3111.51 points. The trading volume decreased by 83.9 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on November 14, closing at 4628.14, a decrease of 73.93 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 14, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1700.6, a decrease of 16.3. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1212.4 yuan, a decrease of 18.4 [2][3]. - The downstream acceptance of the fourth round of coke price increases was poor. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream demand-based procurement and weak trading interest [4]. - Recently, Mongolian coal imports increased, and the number of customs clearances remained high. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - India will allow sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than the previous estimate of 2 million tons. In the second half of October, only 46.02% of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil was used for sugar production, and the rest was used for ethanol fuel production. Affected by the expected decline in supply from India and Brazil, the US sugar market rose on Friday [4]. - On the night of November 14, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined due to long - liquidation pressure. In the second half of October, sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 16.4% year - on - year to 2.068 million tons, and sugarcane crushing volume increased by 14.3% year - on - year to 31.108 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber market adjusted slightly on November 14. As of November 14, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 158138 tons, a decrease of 4022 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 49695 tons, an increase of 1612 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons [4]. Live Pigs - On November 14, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The number of fertile sows remained high, leading to an increase in live pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms increased market supply. The slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises gradually recovered, increasing short - term supply pressure and suppressing futures prices [5]. - The demand for live pigs was weak. There was still about half a month until the traditional bacon - curing peak season. Alternative consumption was common, and consumer enthusiasm was low. The catering and tourism industries were weak, and terminal consumption lacked support. Slaughter enterprises had poor sales, and the fresh - meat sales rate declined. Some enterprises stored meat in cold storage, and the frozen - meat inventory rate increased slightly [5]. Soybean Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand report showed that the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in 2025 was 53.0 bushels, and the total output was 4.253 billion bushels, both lower than the September forecast and slightly lower than analysts' expectations. The unmet expectations led to short - term market selling, and the CBOT soybean futures were under pressure. The report maintained the soybean production expectations of Brazil at 175 million tons and Argentina at 48.5 million tons [5]. - On November 14, the M2601 main contract closed at 3092 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The domestic soybean meal inventory continued to decline and was below 1 million tons. The inventory pressure improved. The提货 volume increased slightly, and the livestock and poultry inventory was large. Soybean meal had a cost - performance advantage, but the soybean and soybean meal inventory was still high. The market expected the supply gap of imported soybeans to be filled, and the upward momentum of the soybean meal market might weaken [5]. Shanghai Copper - Fed officials expressed caution about further interest rate cuts before the release of important economic data, weakening the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. China's economic operation in October was generally stable, and new development drivers continued to grow [5]. - The tight supply (such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia) and weak demand were in a game. The COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the LME inventory was at a low level. Copper prices were expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 14, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13445 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 221 lots compared with the previous trading day. On November 15, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. After the US government ended the shutdown, Fed officials had differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut decreased [5]. Iron Ore - On November 14, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.26% at 772.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, and domestic arrivals also decreased. Iron - water production stopped falling and increased. Steel mills continued to purchase iron ore as needed. Affected by the expected monetary easing from the central bank, iron ore prices fluctuated in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On November 14, the asphalt 2601 main contract closed up 0.1% at 3037 yuan. Asphalt supply continued to decline, and inventory decreased. Road construction projects were coming to an end, and shipments decreased significantly. Terminal demand was weak, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Asphalt prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Logs - On November 14, the 2601 log contract opened at 778, with a low of 778, a high of 791, and closed at 788.5, with a daily reduction of 1618 lots. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of logs continued to increase, reaching a four - week high. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. Steel - With the cooling and snow in the north, construction intensity decreased significantly, and seasonal demand declined. Although there was still some construction volume in the south, the procurement rhythm slowed down, and market transactions decreased. The rebar market was at a critical point of supply - demand contraction and inventory cycle conversion. Low inventory gave some resilience to prices, and improved macro - expectations provided bottom support [6]. - Terminal users' funds did not improve significantly, and rigid - demand replenishment was the main operation. Speculative demand almost disappeared. In some low - inventory areas, there were shortages of some specifications, supporting the resistance of local spot prices. In the short term, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the off - season was emerging [6]. Alumina - In the raw material sector, some domestic mines resumed production, and the rainy season in Guinea ended, alleviating the tight supply of bauxite. Currently, the operating capacity and production of alumina were high, and the spot price was low, which might affect smelter profits. Some high - cost enterprises might cut production, and the oversupply situation in the domestic market would gradually ease with production control [6]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity was approaching the domestic ceiling, and the demand for alumina remained relatively stable. Overall, the alumina market might be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, and the oversupply situation might improve with production control [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - In the raw material sector, the price rebounded slightly but remained low. The spot price of aluminum was strong, and smelters had good profits and high production enthusiasm. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was approaching the industry limit, and the production rate was high. With good profits and high production, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum remained high [6]. - On the demand side, some downstream industries of aluminum products were transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the high aluminum price inhibited downstream purchases to some extent. The demand for electrolytic aluminum might slow down. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market might be in a stage of stable supply and demand, and social inventory was accumulating slightly [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview and key events to watch from November 17 - 21, 2025, including economic data releases from multiple countries and regions and their potential impacts on the futures market [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On November 19 at 18:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will announce the final value of the Eurozone's October CPI - On November 20 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting - On November 20 at 09:00, the People's Bank of China will announce the November 20, 2025 loan prime rate (LPR), expected to be the same as the previous value - On November 20 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report - Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Federal Reserve officials for their impacts on the futures market [2] This Week's Hot - Spot Preview November 17 - Japan's Cabinet Office will announce the preliminary value of Japan's Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP quarterly rate is - 0.6% (previous value 0.5%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted annualized GDP quarterly rate is - 2.5% (previous value 2.2%) [3] - The central bank carried out an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation. With 300 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase maturing in November, this means an additional 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase was continued. It is bullish for stock index futures and commodity futures and relatively bullish for Treasury bond futures [4] - The National Energy Administration will announce China's total electricity consumption in October. The previous value was 888.6 billion kilowatt - hours, with a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [5] November 19 - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the final value of the Eurozone's October CPI. The expected un - seasonally - adjusted annual rate of the harmonized CPI is 2.1% (same as the preliminary value in October, 2.2% in September's final value), and the expected un - seasonally - adjusted annual rate of the core harmonized CPI is 2.4% (same as the preliminary value in October and September's final value) [8] - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 14. The previous value was an increase of 6.413 million barrels. A continued increase may suppress the prices of crude oil and related commodity futures [9] November 20 - The People's Bank of China will announce the November 20, 2025 LPR. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50%, both the same as the previous values [10] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting, which will provide details of discussions on interest rates, inflation, and economic prospects and clues for future policy paths [11] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report. The expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is 50,000 (previous value 22,000), and the expected unemployment rate is 4.3% (same as the previous value). Higher new non - farm employment and a stable unemployment rate may reduce the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting and suppress the rise of commodity futures and stock index futures [12] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the October existing home sales. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total of existing home sales is 4.06 million households, the same as the previous value [13] - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's November consumer confidence index. The expected value is - 14.5 (previous value - 14.2) [14] November 21 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of Germany's November SPGI manufacturing PMI. The expected value is 49.8 (previous value 49.6) [15] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's November SPGI manufacturing PMI. The expected value is 50.2 (previous value 50) [16]

| | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 9,020 | -125 | -200 | 450 | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 293,210 | 731 | -74,606 | 68,142 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 251,302 | -16,456 | -16,999 | 108,921 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 54,045 | -150 | 830 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 270,607 | -7,309 | 1,173 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 145,191 | 1,165 | 19,674 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -360 | -30 | -375 | -360 | | | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期成本（元/吨） | 88.5 | -5.3 | -7. ...