化工板块回调，且伊朗局势未进一步激化 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润280元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1785元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差133元/吨（+68），内蒙南线1810元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2183元/吨（-13），鲁 南基差131元/吨（+56）；河南2010元/吨（-5），河南基差-42元/吨（+63）；河北2015元/吨（+0），河北基差23元/吨 （+68）。隆众内地工厂库存424720吨（-13700），西北工厂库存242100吨（-19300）；隆众内地工厂待发订单265660 吨（+27392），西北工厂待发订单163800吨（+13000）。 甲醇日报 | 2026-02-03 贵金属及有色金属大幅下跌带动整个商品板块回调，拖累化工品价格走势。 港口方面。伊朗局势未进一步激化，关注局势后续发展，目前倾向于非战的谈判，而中国甲醇港口库存仍维持高 位，继续等待去库预期的兑现。进入2月市场开始预期伊朗装置冬检复工，但目前未有具体计划时间，关注实际复 工进度及伊朗局势对其的影响。而中国到港兑现滞后下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is clearly supported by the rising prices of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain under the situation of double reduction in supply and demand. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. In February, many polysilicon enterprises have a clear plan to stop production, and the supply tends to shrink. Recently, the sharp drop in silver prices has alleviated the downstream cost pressure, and the demand has improved marginally. After the polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the expectation of coordinated price support failed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the downstream production capacity accelerating to clear out [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 2, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,880 yuan/ton and closed at 8,795 yuan/ton, a change of (-105) yuan/ton or (-1.18)% compared with the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 236,313 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 1, 2026, was 13,943 lots, a change of 288 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 (100) yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on January 29 was 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared with the previous week [1]. - The supply side of industrial silicon is expected to have production cuts and shutdowns in February. During the Spring Festival and the traditional off - season, the supply side tends to shrink [2]. - On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon is expected to increase in the short term due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic value - added tax. However, the demand for industrial silicon is sluggish due to inventory accumulation and production cuts by large polysilicon manufacturers in February. The organic silicon industry has a production cut expectation, and the operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys shows a marginal weakening trend, and the operating rate is expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening in the future [2]. Polysilicon - On February 2, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated and declined, opening at 47,250 yuan/ton and closing at 47,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 1.66% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 40,278 (42,513 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 17,789 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 47.60 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 47.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 333,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.90%, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.29GW, with a month - on - month change of 1.90%, the weekly output of polysilicon was 20,200.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75GW, with a month - on - month change of 8.20% [3]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.53 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.33 (0.00) yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm components was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm components was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [3]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [6].

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：跟随油价大幅回调，区间震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱20260203 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转弱 | 8 | | PP：成本扰动较大，利润或趋修复 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本支撑，未来预期较强 | 10 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260203 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 15 | | 尿素：短期横盘整理 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 | 21 | | 丙烯：上行驱动转弱，关注成本端扰动 | 21 | | PVC：情绪偏强，基本面未有明显改善 | 24 | | 燃料油：大幅回撤，高波动态势延续 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：跟跌走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-03 青岛港口库存小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15980元/吨，较前一日变动-380元/吨；NR主力合约12925元/吨，较前一日变动-310 元/吨；BR主力合约12900元/吨，较前一日变动-490元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15800元/吨，较前一日变动-350元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15000元/吨，较前一 日变动-230元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1925美元/吨，较前一日变动-35美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1865 美元/吨，较前一日变动-40美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12700元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Cost - side support for polyolefins has declined, leading to a correction in polyolefin futures. The supply - demand fundamentals of both PE and PP are weak, and the rebound sustainability is limited. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for L and PP [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,878 yuan/ton (-136), and that of the PP main contract is 6,714 yuan/ton (-110). LL North China spot is 6,800 yuan/ton (-50), LL East China spot is 6,850 yuan/ton (-70), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+40). LL North China basis is -78 yuan/ton (+86), LL East China basis is -28 yuan/ton (+66), and PP East China basis is -34 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 is 85.4% (+0.7%), and PP开工率 is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -115.3 yuan/ton (-30.1), PP oil - based production profit is -635.3 yuan/ton (-30.1), and PDH - based PP production profit is -505.3 yuan/ton (+25.9) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is 76.7 yuan/ton (-31.9), PP import profit is -328.7 yuan/ton (-43.8), and PP export profit is -74.1 US dollars/ton (+0.3) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 42.0% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 64.2% (+0.2%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: International oil prices have dropped significantly, weakening the cost - side support for plastics. The supply is expected to increase due to the restart of many devices and more arriving imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season with a decline in overall downstream开工率. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [3] - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane has declined, and international oil prices have dropped, causing the PP futures and spot prices to fall. The supply is difficult to be strongly supported, and the demand is in the off - season with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for L and PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuates strongly, and the macro and capital factors cause greater disturbances. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [5] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the cost support rose during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8675 - 8915. The fundamentals are bullish [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling continued to decrease, demand showed some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support remained stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 45850 - 48250. The fundamentals are bullish [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Slow demand recovery after the holiday; strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9859.7 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 554,000 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 209,000 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week decrease; main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% week - on - week decrease. The predicted production scheduling for February was 79,700 tons, a 20.93% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.75GW, an 8.19% week - on - week increase. The inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon was 38,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 11,850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the price of N - type dense material was 50,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 333,000 tons, a 0.90% week - on - week increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and short positions turned to long [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices showed different changes, such as the 01 contract price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remaining unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: Different types of inventory, including social, sample enterprise, and port inventory, had different changes, with social inventory decreasing by 0.36% week - on - week [15]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Sample enterprise production decreased by 1.36% week - on - week, and the Xinjiang sample utilization rate decreased by 1.44% week - on - week [15]. - **Cost**: Costs in different regions, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, showed different trends [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices of polysilicon products, such as N - type silicon wafers and dense materials, showed different changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.91% week - on - week [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and the photovoltaic cell monthly production decreased by 11.38% month - on - month [17]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged [17].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 03 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20260203 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 纸浆趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看 空，2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 昨日纸浆期货价格震荡下行，而现货市场则表现平淡，价格波动有限，市场缺乏明确方向。当前市场需求 端维持疲软的状态，下游纸厂采购意愿比较低，纸浆交投基本发生在贸易商群体之间，终端需求不足。整体来 看，供需基本面未出现改善迹象，高库存与弱需求的矛盾压制市场走势，建议关注主要港口库存的变动以及下 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.266 | 5, 300 | -34 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 278 | 5, 334 | -56 | | | | 成交量(手) | 314. 614 | 476 ...

2026 年 2 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：盘面震荡，跟随商品市场情绪波动 豆一：国储拍卖成交较好，影响偏多 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4393 -33（-0.75%） | 4387 +14（+0.32%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2750 -26（-0.94%） | 2747 -9 （-0.33%） | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1060 -4.25（-0.40%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 294.3 +0.7（+0.24%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 3100～3120， | | | | | 山东 持平； | 持平； 5月M2605+50， 5-7月M2605+10， | 持平； 持平； ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3098 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 50,000 contracts [2][11] - Spot prices decreased, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price down 20 CNY/ton to 2920 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price down 20 CNY/ton to 3180 CNY/ton; national construction material transaction volume was 46,800 tons [2][11] - National construction material inventory increased by 6.76% to 3.3745 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory rose by 2.74% to 2.1083 million tons, indicating increased supply pressure [2][11] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 783 CNY/ton, down 8.5 CNY/ton or 1.07%, with a trading volume of 300,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 2,000 contracts [3][12] - Australian shipments decreased by 170,000 tons to 18.204 million tons, while Brazilian shipments increased by 143.7 million tons to 7.006 million tons, leading to a global shipment recovery [3][12] - Iron production decreased by 0.12 million tons to 2.2798 million tons, with continued inventory accumulation at ports and steel mills [3][12] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1141.5 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton or 1.21%, with a decrease in open interest by 19,459 contracts [4][12] - In the Shanxi Linfen region, the price of fat coal was lowered by 35 CNY to 690 CNY/ton, while other coal prices showed slight increases [4][12] - With the approach of the Spring Festival, coal supply is expected to tighten as more mines enter holiday shutdowns, while downstream demand remains weak [4][12] Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1680.5 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton or 2.38%, with a decrease in open interest by 378 contracts [5][13] - The spot market for coke remained stable, with the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port unchanged at 1470 CNY/ton [5][13] - Steel mill profits remain low, leading to reduced demand for coke as many mills are halting operations for maintenance [5][13] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures contract closed at 5834 CNY/ton, down 0.88%, with a decrease in open interest by 1,833 contracts [6][14] - The market price ranged from 5620 to 5850 CNY/ton, with a 20 CNY/ton decrease in Inner Mongolia [6][14] - Steel mill demand for silicon manganese showed some improvement due to pre-holiday stocking, but overall supply and demand dynamics remain weak [6][14] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5624 CNY/ton, down 1.02%, with a decrease in open interest by 1,038 contracts [7][15] - The price range for silicon iron was approximately 5300 to 5350 CNY/ton, with a 20 CNY/ton increase in Inner Mongolia [7][15] - Steel mill inquiries for silicon iron are declining as the market approaches the end of the pre-holiday period, leading to reduced trading activity [7][15]

每经AI快讯，2月2日，部分期货夜盘收盘，商品跌多涨少，燃油跌4%，不锈钢跌2%，乙二醇跌1.8%， 沥青跌1.75%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...