Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push prices up, although at a slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a prolonged but milder impact on prices due to a slower transfer of costs from businesses to consumers [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts that the Federal Reserve will implement three consecutive rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push up prices, although at a slightly slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a more gradual and prolonged impact on prices, as the ability of companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers remains intact [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1] - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push up prices, although at a slightly slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a more moderate and prolonged impact on prices due to a slower pass-through to consumers [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1] - The company now anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, which reduces the constraints on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - The report maintains the prediction of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September and two cuts within the year [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. (2025) shows that after the announcement of tariffs, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks, indicating a rapid transmission of tariffs [1] Group 2 - Despite the rapid transmission of tariffs, companies are only passing on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers due to weak perceived demand, which prevents a larger increase in inflation [1] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates that the rise in tariffs in August may continue to moderately push up core inflation, but weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflation increases [1] - The report highlights that demand slowdown and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]

中金公司发布研究报告称，美国7月核心CPI季调环比上涨0.3%，同比由2.9%反弹至3.1%，高于市场预期；整体CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比维持在2.7%，略 低于预期。从分项来看，7月通胀呈现商品温和，服务反弹的特征：关税成本仍在向零售端传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。一些此前下跌的服务价格转 为上涨，增加了通胀的粘性。维持此前判断，美国通胀将进入一轮结构性上行阶段。对美联储而言，核心CPI并未朝着2%目标收敛，而是重回3%以上， 与目标越来越远。这可能加大美联储内部分歧，使其难以就政策决议形成共识。货币政策路径的变数将大大提升，市场波动将加剧。 7月通胀呈现商品温和，服务反弹的特征。商品方面，关税成本仍在向消费者传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。核心商品价格指数季调环比增长0.2%，增 幅与上月持平。其中，家具床具(环比+0.9%)、窗帘(+1.2%)、音视频设备(+0.8%)、摄影设备(+2.1%)仍然保持较高增速，显示关税成本持续传导。但也有 部分此前涨势较猛的项目在7月环比走弱，比如家电(-2.2%)、男装(-1.3%)、非处方药品(-0.5%)、电脑(-2.6%)等。 此前一直没有涨价的汽车价格在7月出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff pressures to consumers, thus preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Inflation and Tariffs - U.S. inflation data for July shows that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is moderate, with the maximum price increase occurring 10-15 weeks after the announcement of tariffs [1] - The report suggests that while tariffs may continue to gently push up core inflation due to an increase in tariffs in August, weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflationary pressure [1] Employment Market and Economic Outlook - The demand slowdown and accelerated efforts to deport illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1] - The company maintains its forecast for a rate cut in September and two rate cuts within the year, reflecting the anticipated economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - A moderate U.S. inflation report is strengthening traders' positions that the Federal Reserve will soon lower interest rates, with some speculating on the possibility of a significant rate cut [1][4]. Inflation Data Summary - July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations, while year-on-year growth was 2.7%, slightly below the forecast of 2.8% [1]. - Core CPI for July rose by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations, and year-on-year growth was 3.1%, above the forecast of 3% [1]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, short-term U.S. Treasury yields declined, and traders raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 90% [1]. - There is growing interest in options betting on a rate cut exceeding 25 basis points in September, with approximately $2 million in options premiums added to positions linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) [1]. Expert Opinions - Rick Rieder from BlackRock anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut in September, citing the inflation report as slightly higher than previous months but not alarming [4]. - Claudia Sahm from New Century Advisors cautions that a September rate cut is not guaranteed, as definitive data is still pending [5]. Options Market Activity - Significant demand for call options at strike prices of 96.25 and 96.125 for September and December SOFR contracts indicates traders are pricing in further rate cuts [7]. - The options market remains close to neutral overall, with a slight bias towards bearish positions in long-term bonds [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights significant fluctuations in gold prices, with spot gold dropping below $3350 per ounce and COMEX gold futures falling nearly 2.5% [2][6][7] - Following a volatile week, gold prices rebounded above $3350 per ounce by August 12 [4] - The announcement by President Trump that no tariffs would be imposed on imported gold bars contributed to the market's reaction, leading to a decline in gold prices [6][8] Group 2 - The New York Mercantile Exchange saw a sharp decline in near-month gold futures, dropping nearly 2.5% and closing below $3400 per ounce, marking the largest drop since May [7] - The confusion regarding customs codes for gold bars led to a temporary spike in gold prices, which was later corrected after the White House announced plans to clarify the tariff situation [7][8] - Analysts noted that the current COMEX inventory levels are unusually high, indicating no liquidity issues despite the recent price fluctuations [8] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards upcoming U.S. inflation data, with expectations that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [9] - A weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report has increased speculation about a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [9] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff announcements are also impacting gold prices, as they have been significant factors driving price movements this year [9]

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, demanding an immediate interest rate cut and threatening a "major lawsuit" against him [1] - Trump highlighted the significant cost overruns in the Fed's renovation project, which escalated from an initial budget of $50 million to $3 billion [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a July CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase since January [1] Group 2 - Market analysts believe inflation remains moderate, providing the Federal Reserve with policy flexibility amid signs of a weakening labor market [2] - There is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with estimates reaching 90.1% according to CME's FedWatch tool [2] - Goldman Sachs noted that the impact of tariffs on prices is mostly temporary, as companies are managing cost pressures through inventory reduction and cautious pricing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The July inflation data in the U.S. shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, contrary to market expectations of a rise to 2.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with expectations, and slowed down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the year-on-year increase accelerated from 2.9% to 3.1%, surpassing the market forecast of 3% [2]. Group 2: Key Drivers - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, while food prices remained flat and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [4]. - New car prices remained unchanged due to the impact of tariffs, but used car and truck prices increased by 0.5% [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the data release, traders are betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the remaining three meetings of the year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising above 90% [5]. - Analysts suggest that the report may not alter the Federal Reserve's future trajectory, with expectations of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [8].