今日午后，A股突然飙涨，大金融"旱地拔葱"，保险、券商、银行等强势爆发。 截至收盘，沪指一举收复3400点失地，创近2个月新高；创业板指、北证50均涨超1%。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 > | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北证50 | | 1420.93 | +15.13 | +1.08% | | 899050 | and No | | | | | 创业板指 | | 2083.14 | +20.88 | +1.01% | | 399006 | | | | | | 上证指数 | | 3403.95 | +29.08 | +0.86% | | 000001 | | | | | | 深证成指 | | 10354.22 | +66.14 | +0.64% | | 100666 | | | | | | 科创50 | | 1013.77 | +4.09 | | | 000688 | | | | | | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 蛋跌幅 √ | | 保险工 | | 911.886 | +50.751 | +5.89% | | LIST0077 | ...

【环球时报综合报道】据路透社13日报道，根据中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美国将在未来3个月内把对中国进口商品加征关税从145%降至 30%，而中国对美国进口商品加征关税将从125%降至10%。 报道称，巴西的大豆出口溢价下跌，美国期货价格则因贸易摩擦降级而创下3个月来新高，这反映了中国可能从美国购买更多大豆的预期。 但美国农民称，暂停实施关税还不够。巴西是中国最大的大豆供应国，因创纪录的收成和较低的价格而拥有充足的供应，而且巴西农民不像美国 竞争对手那样面临中国的关税。中国作为世界上最大的农作物进口国，去年约70%的大豆进口来自巴西。 美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰德说："对美国大豆来说，仍然保留的关税绝非无足轻重。竞争对手巴西和阿根廷的产品不用承受这种额外成本 负担。" 路透社称，中国一直是美国农民的重要市场，最近几年占美国大豆出口量的一半以上。贸易战损害了美国大豆、高粱和猪肉产品对中国的销售， 也为巴西创造了新的机遇。 ABC称，澳大利亚4月出口了超过3.7万吨谷饲牛肉，中国购买了其中的1/3。中国今年迄今为止已从澳大利亚进口了约4.2万吨谷饲牛肉，比去年同 期增长36%。（顾锦东） 路透社还称，6艘装载 ...

瑞银全球财富管理的美国股票主管David Lefkowitz将对美股的评级从"有吸引力"下调至"中性"。 Lefkowitz在5月13日的报告中写道，投资者似乎"已经计入贸易摩擦的大幅缓和"，认为美股的风险回报 更趋平衡，标普500指数目前高于4月2日的水平。由于美股近期的上行催化剂似乎"不那么普遍"，并且 尽管不确定性有所降低，经济仍需适应更高的关税水平，未来几个月经济数据"似乎将趋于疲软"。虽然 Lefkowitz将美股评级下调至中性，但他仍然认为牛市"完好无损，明年股市可能会进一步上涨"。"但经 济将必须适应更高的关税，这可能会导致一段时期的经济数据疲软，这可能会对股市造成温和阻力"。 (智通财经) ...

苏伊士运河，要降价了！ 当地时间5月13日，埃及苏伊士运河管理局发布声明称，自5月15日起向大型集装箱船提供15%的过境费优惠。 苏伊士运河是全球最重要的航运通道之一，在此轮红海危机蔓延之前，该运河承担了大约10%的全球海上贸易 运输量和约30%的集装箱运输，对国际贸易至关重要。红海危机爆发后，国际航运企业视红海水域为高风险航 线，纷纷绕行。苏伊士运河船舶通行量及通行费收入大幅下降。 值得关注的是，在A股市场上，港口航运板块已连续多日上涨，5月14日，板块指数更是大涨超4%，中远海 发、宁波海运、飞力达等10多只个股涨停。当天，集运指数（欧线）期货涨停，涨幅达15.99%。 有分析人士指出，中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展，缓解了全球对贸易摩擦升级的忧虑，为全球经济纾压增强了 信心，这是集运欧线和航运板块持续大涨的主要原因。另外，苏伊士运河降低费用的消息，也对航运板块构成 利好。 苏伊士运河降低过境费 据新华社消息，埃及苏伊士运河管理局13日发布声明说，自5月15日起向大型集装箱船提供15%的过境费优 惠。此举旨在鼓励航运公司在红海安全形势好转的情况下重返苏伊士运河。 埃及苏伊士运河管理局主席乌萨马·拉比耶在声明中 ...

Core Points - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of tariffs by both sides, with a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days [1][10] - The economic implications of the trade relationship are significant for both countries and global economic stability [1] - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods exported to the US is now approximately 30% after the tariff reductions [1] Group 1: Trade Impact - The trade talks have led to a surge in the Chinese stock market and a positive response from economists, indicating a better-than-expected outcome [1][4] - Many Chinese traders are eager to capitalize on the 90-day tariff suspension, with increased production and shipping activities anticipated [4][5] - The logistics sector is experiencing heightened activity as companies rush to adjust pricing and shipping arrangements [5][9] Group 2: Business Sentiment - Business owners expressed relief and optimism following the trade talks, with some indicating a willingness to resume orders despite previous uncertainties [4][23] - The sentiment among traders reflects a cautious optimism, as they prepare for potential future changes in trade policy [10][23] - The trade environment has forced many businesses to reconsider their strategies, with some exploring alternative markets and production locations [12][19] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The trade dynamics have prompted discussions about the sustainability of the current global trade order, with potential shifts towards decoupling or increased cooperation [2][10] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policies continues to pose challenges for businesses, necessitating contingency planning [10][21] - The resilience of Chinese manufacturing and its integrated supply chains remains a competitive advantage, despite the pressures from shifting trade policies [13][14]

2025 年 05 月 14 日 豆粕：贸易摩擦缓和，连粕偏弱震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4160 +4（+0.10%） | 4155 | -5（-0.12%） | | 期 货 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | -7（-0.24%） 2886 | 2880 | -23（-0.79%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1075 +5.0（+0.47%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 293.6 -4.7（-1.58%） | | n a | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | （元/吨） 山东 平； | 较昨-20或+10； 3030～3160， 货M2509+50； 6-7月M2509-70/-60/-30， 8-9月M2509+20/+30/+60， | 现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the new U.S. government to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on all trade partners has triggered global reactions, with many countries seeking to restart trade negotiations, while China has implemented a series of countermeasures, including imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. goods and placing certain U.S. companies on an unreliable entity list [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Policy Evolution - Since the reform and opening up, U.S.-China trade relations have developed through cooperation and competition, with U.S. trade policy evolving from "engagement and cooperation" to "strategic containment" [4][6]. - The U.S. has repeatedly initiated trade sanctions against China, particularly through "Section 301 investigations," citing issues like intellectual property infringement and unfair trade practices [6][7]. - The trade disputes intensified after China's accession to the WTO in 2001, leading to significant increases in trade volume and persistent trade surpluses for China [7][8]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Shocks on Economies - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with the U.S. growth rate expected to slow to 1.8%, the largest adjustment among developed economies [1][2]. - Tariff increases from the U.S. are expected to lead to a decline in demand for Chinese exports, affecting production capacity and employment in export-oriented sectors [11][12]. - The dual effects of supply-side and demand-side shocks from tariffs create a "stagflation" scenario, complicating monetary policy responses [15][20]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Adjustments - In response to external shocks, China is expected to adopt an expansionary monetary policy to stimulate demand and mitigate the negative impacts of tariff increases [18][21]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and liquidity support to stabilize the economy [18][22]. - Structural monetary policy tools are being utilized to guide credit towards specific sectors, particularly those affected by trade policies, to support economic stability [22][23]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff impacts necessitate a balanced approach between supply-side management and monetary policy coordination in China [26]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy may be constrained by the need to manage inflation and economic growth simultaneously, particularly in the context of U.S. monetary policy tightening [21][26]. - Future structural monetary policies will focus on supporting foreign trade enterprises while ensuring that credit allocation does not lead to systemic risks in the banking sector [24][25].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.674 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.62% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 863 million CNY, down 0.28% year-on-year [3] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were 1.61 CNY, a decline of 0.28% year-on-year [3] - The weighted average return on equity for 2024 was 21.80%, a decrease of 4.01% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 606 million CNY, down 19.09% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 118 million CNY, a decrease of 19.58% year-on-year [3] - Basic earnings per share in Q1 2025 were 0.22 CNY, down 19.58% year-on-year [3] - The weighted average return on equity in Q1 2025 was 2.75%, a decrease of 1.12% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Product Overview - The company's main business is divided into two core segments: compressors and vacuum pumps [3][4] - Refrigeration products include commercial central air conditioning compressors, frozen and refrigerated compressors, and heat pump compressors [3] - Air compressors are essential in various industries, including engineering machinery, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and mining [4] - The company is expanding into oil-free air compressor markets, targeting industries with high air quality requirements [4] - Vacuum products are primarily used in the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, with plans to expand into lithium batteries, pharmaceuticals, and chemical manufacturing [4] Group 3: Future Projections - The company projects a revenue of 3.301 billion CNY for 2025, a decrease of 10.15% year-on-year [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 692 million CNY, down 19.81% year-on-year [4] - The company's performance in the U.S. market is currently low, with minimal direct impact from U.S.-China tariffs [4] - Future trade tensions may adversely affect export business [4]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 14 日 浙商早知道 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商家电 张云添/芦家宁】TCL 智家（002668）公司点评：冰箱 ODM 出口龙头，有望受益于冰箱出口景气延 续 ——20250512 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 05 月 14 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 大势：5 月 13 日上证指数上涨 0.17%，沪深 300 上涨 0.15%，科创 50 下跌 0.15%，中证 1000 下跌 0.27%，创业 板指下跌 0.12%，恒生指数下跌 1.87%。 行业：5 月 13 日表现最好的行业分别是银行（+1.52%)、美容护理（+1.18%)、医药生物（+0.9%)、交通运输 （+0.72%)、煤炭（+0.62%)，表现最差的行业分别是国防军工（-3.07%)、计算机（-0.8%)、机械设备（- 0.66%)、电子（-0.64%)、通信（-0.61%)。 资金：5 ...

"90天关税暂停令许多美国农民感到宽慰。"美国商业和经济新闻网站Marketplace刊文称。据报道，北达科他州大豆农民乔希·加克尔听闻中美达成 协议后心情好了很多，他说："我们正在取得进展，正在播种，所以我感觉很好。我们还有很多工作要做，我很感激两国正在展开对话。"与此同 时，他也对中美双边关税暂停90天之后的情况抱有谨慎的希望，8月刚好是他种植的大豆快要收获之时，他希望自己投入资金后能够得到回报。 据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）巴西频道报道，美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰对"朝着问题解决迈出的第一步"表示满意，但他表示，目前的关 税税率"依然过高"，可能还是会让美国大豆在中国的市场份额下降。 据《环球时报》驻巴西特派记者观察，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布后，巴西农业媒体和农业从业者最关心的是大豆的价格和出口。今年4月 初，中国与巴西签署了至少240万吨的大豆采购合同，这相当于中国月均进口量的近1/3。 【环球时报综合报道】编者的话：近几年，中国在从美国进口大豆等农产品的同时，也开始增加从南美等地区国家的农产品进口。中国持续推动 农产品进口多元化，巴西已超越美国成为中国最大的大豆供应国，中国和阿根廷签署了 ...