供应端有所缩减，盘面下跌节奏放缓 煤焦周度报告 20250616 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面略有反弹，短期下跌节奏放缓；现货暂稳，仍有第四轮降价预期 | | | 供给 | 焦企开工下滑，供应端略有收紧 | | | 需求 | 铁水延续小幅下滑，钢厂控制原料到货；投机情绪偏弱，出口利润维持正值，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润小幅回升 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周中美和谈带来市场情绪短暂改善，周初双焦小幅反弹，但和谈未有超预期协议达成，加之美方对钢制家电加征关税，而钢材需求也进一步走弱，盘 面反弹乏力再度走弱，整体震荡走势。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约跌0.44%至1349.5，焦煤09合约跌0.58%至774.5。焦炭方面，受环保、检 ...

Economic Overview - In May, industrial output and service sector growth rates were around 6%, indicating a GDP growth rate of over 5% for Q2 is likely[1] - Consumer retail sales in May showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, driven by policies like "trade-in" and the early start of the "618" shopping festival[5] Consumption Trends - The "618" shopping festival's early launch and "trade-in" policies significantly boosted retail sales, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93%[5] - However, the sustainability of consumer growth is uncertain as reliance on policy support may weaken, and there are signs of demand recovery issues[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% in May, with significant declines in non-metallic and chemical manufacturing sectors[6] - Export delivery value growth for large enterprises dropped sharply from 7.7% in March to 0.6% in May, indicating a more significant impact from tariffs compared to small enterprises[2] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area all saw year-on-year declines in May, with first-tier city housing prices also falling[7] - New policies are being implemented to stabilize the market, including the removal of restrictions in key cities[7] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth rates slightly declined, with broad infrastructure growth at 9.2% and narrow infrastructure growth at 5.1% in May[6] - Despite the slowdown, project approvals by the National Development and Reform Commission remain at historically high levels, suggesting ongoing infrastructure investment intentions[4]

Group 1: Energy and Related Products - International oil prices rose significantly last week due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with the Brent 08 contract up 12.8% for the week. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Investors can hold low - cost call options and consider short positions after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [1] - Gold prices were supported by the Israel - Iran military confrontation. The market is awaiting the Fed's meeting guidance this week. After gold returned to a historical high, caution is advised [2] - Geopolitical conflicts led to the strengthening of oil prices, and domestic oil product futures followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to weaken, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be under pressure [20] - Due to the impact of geopolitical risks, the price of asphalt followed the rise of crude oil but underperformed, and the crack spread fell sharply. The fundamentals support de - stocking, but the crack spread is under obvious pressure [21] - Geopolitical risks have further increased. The domestic LPG market is relatively more relaxed than the crude oil market. The market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of Middle East exports [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Last week, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, with inventories decreasing to 114,400 tons. This week, attention should be paid to the G7 meeting. Short - position holders should roll over to the 2508 contract [3] - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has fermented, and the spread between months has widened significantly. The strong de - stocking in the aluminum market supports the strength of the near - month contract, while concerns about seasonal weakening of demand and pre - export suppress the performance of the far - month contract [4] - The far - month contract of cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock, and the spread structure was similar to that of Shanghai aluminum. During the off - season, there is still a possibility of the spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowing. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying ADC and shorting AL [5] - The northern spot price of alumina fell below 3,200 yuan last week. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. Futures are recommended to be shorted on rebounds [6] - The fundamentals of zinc are expected to shift to increased supply and weak demand. Although the short - term low inventory provides some support, the market is still dominated by short - sellers [7] - The price of lead in Shanghai is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan integer level. The slow resumption of recycled refined lead production supports the lead price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price of nickel in Shanghai declined, and the market trading was dull. The spot premium was stable, and the far - month structure was relatively strong. Technically, short - selling should be followed [9] - Last Friday, LME tin rebounded and broke through the MA60 moving average, with inventories decreasing to 2,260 tons. The domestic tin market may shift to the export direction [10] Group 3: Chemical Products - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated narrowly. The overall market inventory was stable at a high level. The decline of the futures price slowed down, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock [11] - The industrial silicon futures decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot price tended to be stable. The supply pressure increased month - on - month, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12] - The PVC market continues to have high supply and weak demand, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. The price of caustic soda fell below the previous low, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [27] - The prices of PX and PTA loads continued to rise, while the weaving and dyeing start - up rate decreased, and terminal orders weakened. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure was slightly relieved [28] - The开工 of ethylene glycol increased, and the port inventory accumulated. The supply - demand relationship weakened slightly, and attention should be paid to the energy market [30] Group 4: Ferrous Metals and Related Products - On Friday night, steel prices strengthened. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory de - stocking slowed down. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils both declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock [13] - The iron ore market was volatile last week. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [14] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coke rose last night. There is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [15] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coking coal rose last night. The total inventory increased slightly, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of silicon - manganese rose last Friday. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [17] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of ferrosilicon rose last Friday. The supply decreased, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA's June soybean supply - demand report was neutral. Affected by the Israel - Iran war, the price of US soybeans rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the market is expected to be in a shock [34] - The US EPA's proposed RFS policy is bullish for the soybean and related oil markets. The bottom of the US soybean and soybean oil prices is relatively firm, but there is an upward risk [35] - Affected by the US biodiesel policy and产区 weather, the prices of Canadian canola and canola oil rose. The market strategy remains bullish [36] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the impact of weather on prices [37] - The USDA's June corn report was slightly bullish. Affected by the wheat policy, the corn futures price is expected to be in a shock [38] - The price of live pigs futures rebounded on Friday. In the short term, the spot price is under downward pressure, while in the medium term, the far - end price has support [39] - The egg futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pre - release of demand when the price is at a low level, but there is still a risk of price fluctuations [40] - The price of US cotton was volatile. The domestic cotton market was generally trading, and the market sentiment was not high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [41] - The price of US sugar was in a shock. The supply of Brazilian sugar is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar market has less pressure, and the price is expected to be in a shock [42] - The price of apples was in a shock. The market demand declined, and the trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate [43] Group 6: Others - The freight index of the container shipping (European line) was affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The impact on the European line market is limited. After the short - term sentiment fades, the far - month off - season is expected to return to a weak pattern [19] - The price of wood futures was weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [43] - The price of pulp futures was in a shock. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on significant pullbacks [44] - The A - share market declined unilaterally, and the futures index contracts all fell. The market risk preference was suppressed by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [45] - The bond market was bullish. The market expects the central bank to inject liquidity this month, and the bullish trend is expected to continue [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The June USDA supply and demand report made minor adjustments to the global soybean balance sheet and did not adjust the US soybean balance sheet, having little impact. The global soybean supply - demand remains tight as the inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/26 global soybean is expected to decline [1][34]. - The US soybean spring planting progress in 2025 was fast at first and then slow, and the market mainly traded the bearish factors while ignoring the marginal bullish factors and weather flaws [27][34]. - Pay close attention to the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June, as it is closer to the actual situation and has differences from market expectations in previous years [2][31]. - The domestic soybean meal futures price rebounded after reaching a low in May, and the May low may become a phased low [2][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. June USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global Soybean Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean output remained unchanged at 426.82 million tons compared to the May estimate; consumption increased by 100,000 tons to 424.15 million tons; exports remained unchanged at 188.43 million tons; imports increased by 40,000 tons to 186.86 million tons; and the ending inventory increased by 970,000 tons to 125.3 million tons due to the increase in the beginning inventory. The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio in 2025/26 is about 20.45%, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation [4][5][8]. - **US Soybean Balance Sheet**: There were no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet for both the 2024/25 and 2025/26 periods in terms of output, consumption, exports, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [4]. - **Other Major Countries**: The soybean output of Brazil, Argentina, and China in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 periods was not adjusted. China's soybean consumption in 2024/25 decreased by 1 million tons due to the reduction in crushing volume [4][5]. - **Global Soybean Meal**: In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean meal output increased by 100,000 tons to 287.73 million tons, consumption increased by 150,000 tons to 283.52 million tons, exports increased by 300,000 tons to 81.23 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 18.37 million tons [23]. 2. US Soybean Spring Planting - The US soybean planting progress in 2025 was fast at first and then slow. As of the week of June 9, the planting progress was 90%, faster than the same period last year and the five - year average. The market mainly traded the bearish impact of the fast - paced planting and ignored the marginal bullish factors of the slowdown [27]. - The temperature in the US soybean growing areas was low in mid - to - late May, and the early - stage good - quality rate was average. The market did not trade the weather flaws but mainly focused on the weather forecast. According to the June 12 weather forecast, the weather in some major growing areas in mid - to - late June was mixed, with some areas having more precipitation and others less [27]. 3. Focus on the USDA Planting Area Intention Report at the End of June - As of the week of June 9, the US soybean planting was nearly completed, and the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June is closer to the actual situation. In previous years, there were differences between the report and market expectations, and it is difficult to accurately predict, so it is necessary to wait for the USDA's guidance [31]. 4. Summary - The June USDA supply and demand report had little impact. The market mainly traded the bearish factors of US soybean planting, and the weather flaws were not considered. Pay attention to the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June [34]. - The domestic soybean meal futures price rebounded after reaching a low in May, and the probability of the May low becoming a phased low increased if there are no additional major bearish factors [35].

最后说说黄金，现货黄金涨超0.9%，一度逼近3400美元。在贸易摩擦和地缘政治风险加剧的情况下，黄金的避险属性再次凸显。机构预测，2025年黄金 价格可能在3000-3300美元之间波动，长期来看还是有上涨空间的。 再看看波音，真是屋漏偏逢连夜雨。印度航空的波音787空难事件，让波音股价大跌近5%。这不仅是短期的股价波动，更可能影响到波音未来的订单和声 誉。毕竟，航空安全是头等大事，消费者和航空公司的信任一旦受损，可不是那么容易恢复的。 中概股这边，整体表现有点分化。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌了0.41%，但房多多和金山云却逆势上涨。小鹏汽车、蔚来这些新能源车企跌幅较大，可能和 市场对国内新能源汽车竞争加剧的担忧有关。不过，长期来看，中国的科技和新能源行业还是很有潜力的，像高瓴这样的机构最近都在加仓中概股，说 明他们对这些行业的未来还是很有信心的。 美元指数昨天跌了0.72%，这和特朗普威胁要对贸易伙伴加征关税有关。关税政策不仅影响贸易，还会影响市场对美元资产的信心。不过，离岸人民币倒 是涨了251点，这说明国际市场对人民币的信心在增强，也反映出中国经济的韧性。 国债市场昨天表现不错，尤其是长期国债。这可能是因为 ...

点击上图▲立即报名 2025年6月19日—6月20日，相约"生而全球·共融共建"第二届出海全球峰会， 1500+企业出海掌舵人再聚狮城，与吴晓波、王辉耀、秦朔、津上俊哉、杨宇东、张 华荣等嘉宾，共 同探索中企出海从"产能迁徙"到"文明共生"的新路径。 【点击马上 报名】 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号： 吴晓波频道） 历史总是惊人的相似。今天的中国，正在经历拉锯且充满变数的中美贸易战；而1960—1990年间的日本，也经历了长达三十年之久的日美贸易摩 擦，并直接导致了日本企业大规模出海。 在许多中国人看来，《广场协议》的签订是日本经济转折的重要诱因，日本由此陷入了"失去的20年"，大家把它视为前车之鉴，希望从中吸取教 训。 与此同时，日本的全球化进程加速，日本企业在海外攻城略地，再造了一个"影子日本"，如今中国企业掀起新一轮出海浪潮，也希望从中获取宝贵 的经验。 可以说，贸易战只是一个表象，背后是全球产业链的分化与重构。 我们相信在历史循环中可以找到更多答案，经济周期和规律会给我们启发，日 本在出海过程中的经验教训可以为我们指点迷津。 为此，我们邀请到日本著名的国际经济学者和中国问题专家、国际问题研究所客座研究员 ...

会谈数小时后特朗普接受记者采访时表示：愿意延长7月8日的贸易谈判期限，面对中国坚决的"硬刚"，美国为何突然收手？这一政策的急速转向，究竟 隐藏着怎样的策略巨变？ 文/珠玑说 (本文所有内容皆有官方可靠信源，具体资料赘述文章结尾) 一场异常艰辛的会谈在伦敦落幕，但美国总统的一番话却引爆全球关注："与中国谈判一贯非常困难！"这句话背后，不仅是他对中国谈判实力的罕见坦 言，更揭示出美国在贸易博弈中遭遇的重大误判。 关税大棒：美国为何突然收手？ 几个月前，美国贸易政策的轨迹，就已显现出几次出人意料的转折，今年4月2日，美方曾高调宣布，要对全球70多个国家祭出"对等关税"措施，此举一 出，国际社会无不侧目，空气中弥漫着山雨欲来的紧张气息。 然而，仅仅一周后的4月9日，事态却骤然反转，美国突然宣布暂停对除中国之外的大多数国家征收关税，为期90天，仅维持一个象征性的10%基础税 率，彼时，美国财长贝森特给出的官方解释是，此举旨在"奖励"那些没有反抗的"乖孩子"。 而中国，则因为其"不屈服"的坚决立场，被施加了高达125%的惩罚性关税，这鲜明的对比，一时间让人摸不着头脑：美国究竟在打什么算盘？难道仅仅 是为了"奖励"那些听话 ...

Trade Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[3] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion RMB, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion RMB, declining by 3.8%[3] - In May 2025, the total trade value was 3.81 trillion RMB, with exports at 2.28 trillion RMB (up 6.3%) and imports at 1.53 trillion RMB (down 2.1%) [3] U.S.-China Trade Relations - In May 2025, trade between China and the U.S. was valued at 39.63 billion USD, with a cumulative total of 239.71 billion USD from January to May, reflecting an overall decline of 9.1% year-on-year[5] - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 9.7%, while imports fell by 7.4% during the same period[5] - The decline in trade is attributed to trade frictions, but there are expectations for a recovery in June following a consensus on tariffs reached in mid-May[5] Sector Contributions - Private enterprises showed strong performance with a 7% increase in imports and exports, accounting for 57.1% of total trade, while foreign-invested enterprises grew by 2.3%[5] - State-owned enterprises experienced a 12.7% decline in trade, with imports dropping significantly by 19.1%[5] Product Structure - Mechanical and electrical products, which accounted for 60% of exports, saw a growth of 9.3%, with integrated circuits increasing by 18.9%[5] - Labor-intensive products declined by 1.5%, although textiles still grew by 3.7%[5] Import Trends - Agricultural imports decreased significantly, with a 12.5% drop in value, while demand for high-tech products remained strong, particularly in natural and synthetic rubber, which saw a 50.4% increase in import value[5] - Integrated circuits also showed growth in both volume and value, indicating a robust demand for high-tech imports[5] Future Outlook - Following the Geneva meeting, expectations for improved U.S.-China trade relations are anticipated, with a potential reduction in tariff impacts[6] - However, the cancellation of the tax exemption for small packages from China by the U.S. may delay a full trade recovery[6] Risk Factors - The external trade environment is complex and variable, necessitating close monitoring of economic policies, exchange rate fluctuations, and market competition to mitigate uncertainties[6]

Core Insights - Guangdong's foreign trade import and export reached 3.75 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, a 4% increase year-on-year, outpacing the national growth rate by 1.5 percentage points [1] - Exports totaled 2.37 trillion yuan, growing by 0.9%, while imports were 1.38 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.7% [1] - In May, Guangdong's import and export value was 790.12 billion yuan, a 0.8% growth, with exports declining by 3.1% [1] Trade Partners - The top three trading partners for Guangdong were ASEAN, Hong Kong, and the EU, with growth rates exceeding the overall growth [1] - In the first five months, trade with ASEAN, Hong Kong, and the EU amounted to 622.63 billion, 470.77 billion, and 441.5 billion yuan, growing by 6.2%, 7.8%, and 7.1% respectively [1] - Despite a 9.6% decline in exports to the US, it remained one of Guangdong's top five trading partners, with total trade value of 378.48 billion yuan [1] Product Structure - The export of electromechanical products increased, accounting for 67.7% of Guangdong's total exports, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous year [2] - In the first five months, Guangdong exported 1.6 trillion yuan worth of electromechanical products, a 6.7% increase [2] - Key exports included computers and components, electrical equipment, and integrated circuits, with growth rates of 16.2%, 15.7%, and 23.1% respectively [2] Import Trends - Electromechanical products accounted for nearly 70% of imports, with a growth rate exceeding 20% [2] - Guangdong imported 965.65 billion yuan worth of electromechanical products, a 20.7% increase [2] - Significant imports included integrated circuits, computers and components, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, with growth rates of 14.1%, 108.5%, and 52.7% respectively [2]

6月11日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价又出现上涨，大部分金店都涨至了1006元/克。其中，周生生黄金上涨6元/克，报 1009元/克，还是最高价金店。上海中国黄金价格价格不变，报价969元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差40元/克， 价差还在扩大。 昨日现货黄金盘中不断震荡，先是走低至3301.54美元/盎司，后又冲高至3348.89美元/盎司，最后回落至3323.31美元/盎司， 跌幅0.04%。今日金价暂有上涨趋势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3337.26美元/盎司，涨幅0.42%。 昨日金价回落，主要是美国商务部长卢特尼克和财长贝森特对中美经贸谈判的积极表态，强化了市场对中美可能达成阶段 性协议的预期。市场避险情绪有所削减。 需注意的是，在美国关税问题上，位于华盛顿特区的联邦上诉法院周二允许美国总统特朗普的全面关税措施继续生效。此 次裁定强化了市场对贸易摩擦长期化的担忧，这也是昨日金价盘中出现回升的重要原因。 此外，地缘政治局势仍是支撑金价上涨的重要动力，美国洛杉矶冲突还在继续。伊朗称若遭以色列袭击，将打击以秘密核 设施。俄罗斯昨晚对乌克兰发动大规模无人机袭击，乌克兰全境拉响防空警报。 具体各大品牌 ...