2025 年 10 月 13 日 10 月 10 日 CBOT 大豆日评：中美贸易担忧，大豆下跌。北京德润林 2025 年 10 月 11 日消息：周 五，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，原因是中国宣布的贸易限制措施以及美国总统唐纳 德·特朗普不断升级的言辞，浇灭了人们对解决华盛顿与北京之间僵局的希望。这场僵局已导致中国暂停 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕：中美贸易摩擦忧虑再度升温，预计反弹 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 豆一：贸易摩擦忧虑，预计反弹 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | 涨 跌 | （元/吨） | -7（-0.18%） | -13（-0.33%） | DCE豆一2511 | 3953 | 3945 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the copper price rose and then fell due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose high tariffs on China again, which caused market panic. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed a large divergence between hawks and doves on the pace of interest rate cuts this year. The US government shutdown may delay important inflation and employment data, affecting the Fed's decision on future interest rate cut paths. These factors dampened market risk appetite, causing the London copper price to be blocked after rising to $11,000. On the fundamental side, Teck Resources significantly lowered its production forecasts for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project, intensifying concerns about global mine - end supply. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline, social inventories are running at a low level, and the near - month futures market maintains a flat - water structure. Overall, although the supply shortage disturbances at overseas resource ends continue to heat up, Sino - US trade frictions reappeared last week, and the Fed's hawks and doves have differences on the interest rate cut rhythm. In the context of the spread of overseas macro - panic sentiment, the copper price is expected to enter a shock adjustment in the short term [2][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: From September 26th to October 10th, LME copper rose from $10,205/ton to $10,374/ton, an increase of $169 or 1.66%; COMEX copper rose from 476.45 cents/pound to 484.5 cents/pound, an increase of 8.05 cents or 1.69%; SHFE copper rose from 82,470 yuan/ton to 85,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,440 yuan or 4.17%; international copper rose from 72,870 yuan/ton to 73,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,010 yuan or 1.39%. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.08 to 8.28, an increase of 0.2. The LME spot premium/discount rose from -$33.91/ton to -$31.19/ton, an increase of $2.72 or - 8.02%. The Shanghai spot premium/discount rose from - 5 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: From September 26th to October 10th, LME inventory decreased from 144,400 tons to 139,400 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 3.46%; COMEX inventory increased from 322,284 short tons to 339,525 short tons, an increase of 17,241 short tons or 5.35%; SHFE inventory increased from 98,761 tons to 109,672 tons, an increase of 10,911 tons or 11.05%; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased from 76,300 tons to 88,000 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons or 15.33%. The total inventory increased from 641,745 tons to 676,597 tons, an increase of 34,852 tons or 5.43% [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The rise and fall of the copper price last week were mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions and the Fed's internal differences on interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China and the possible delay of important economic data due to the US government shutdown dampened market risk appetite. On the fundamental side, the extension of the shutdown of Teck Resources' QB project and production problems in other mines intensified concerns about global mine - end supply [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of September 26th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 641,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 3,200 tons, the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts decreased to 7.15%; SHFE inventory decreased by 7,000 tons; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The rebound of the Shanghai - London ratio last week was mainly due to the Fed's overall interest rate cuts falling short of expectations, which boosted the US dollar index to rise from a low level [8]. - **Macro Situation**: Trump's threat to impose tariffs on China and export controls on key software hit market risk appetite, causing a sharp decline in overseas financial market prices. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed differences among officials on the rate and frequency of interest rate cuts. The continued shutdown of the US government may make the Fed lose economic data as a policy reference. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, indicating that manufacturing production activities are accelerating and market demand is improving [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Teck Resources lowered its production guidance for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project. Panama's copper mine has no hope of resuming production this year, and some mines in Indonesia and Chile are also facing production declines. Global refined copper production is expected to decline slightly in October due to the shortage of overseas ore supply and the new waste copper policy. In terms of demand, the construction progress of power grid investment projects has been postponed, the start - up rate of copper cable production is lower than usual, but the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries show certain demand [10]. Industry News - **Chilean Copper Mines**: Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% due to a fatal collapse accident at the El Teniente copper mine. The Escondida copper mine's production was basically stable, while the Collahuasi copper mine's production decreased by 27% due to lower ore grades [12]. - **Teck Resources**: Due to the extended shutdown of the QB project to raise the tailings dam height, Teck Resources lowered its 2025 production guidance from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons and its 2026 production forecast from 280,000 - 310,000 tons to 200,000 - 235,000 tons. The net cash unit cost in 2025 is expected to be between $2.65 - $3.00 per pound, higher than the previous forecast [13]. - **Freeport - McMoRan**: The company found the remains of all 7 missing workers at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia after a mudslide. The mine is expected to fully resume operations in 2027, and some unaffected areas may restart production later this year. The company has declared force majeure on its Indonesian freight and lowered its production forecasts for this year and next [14].

金银为盾，稀土为矛 20251012 摘要 中国稀土出口管制及美国寻求海外稀土资源，使稀土板块重回投资者视 野，尽管有色板块情绪主要集中于贵金属和基本金属，但当前市场变化 可能推动稀土板块阶段性上行。 美国与巴基斯坦洽谈稀土矿产合作，对中国稀土产业链及进出口构成潜 在威胁，美国试图通过建立新港口控制周边矿产资源，对中国形成挑战。 中国采取对等反制措施，对稀土品种实施产品管辖，应对美国的长臂管 辖政策。美国投资加拿大矿业公司和澳大利亚 Fortescue，开发阿拉斯 加矿产，并试图控制格陵兰岛大型稀土矿，但这些项目短期内难以威胁 中国稀土产业链。 中国将进一步重组国内稀土冶炼厂，通过中西、北西两大主体并购不合 规冶炼厂，提高加工费并提升盈利能力。预计加工费将显著上涨，并通 过线上采购增加提高价格定价及监控能力，推动价格端上行。 黄金突破 4,000 美元/盎司，白银突破 50 美元/盎司，市场对此存在分歧。 贸易摩擦催化贵金属边际效应，预计黄金价格将继续上涨。LME 白银租 借利率超过 30%，库存固化导致流通量低，加剧银价上涨。 明年降息预期利好贵金属和工业金属，因此继续看好黄金、白银及相关 标的，包括一线票 ...

受事件冲击、美联储中期货币政策转向以及长期全球央行购金等多重因素影响，贵金属上涨动力十分强 劲。中长期来看，美国经济不确定性增大，美联储降息预期升温，实际利率下行直接降低了贵金属的持 有成本，同时美元信用弱化引发美元贬值预期，在多重因素支撑下，贵金属或长期保持偏多走势。 市场投资避险情绪升温 美东时间10月10日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征100%关税， 并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。10月12日，商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记 者问时表示，10月9日，中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府依据法律法 规，完善自身出口管制体系的正常行为。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为 引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商基础上， 通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤 行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 今年以来，特朗普的政策主张始终在政府裁员、驱逐移民、财政法案、俄乌与加沙促进和平谈判、施压 美联储降息、与各国贸易谈 ...

受事件冲击、美联储中期货币政策转向以及长期全球央行购金等多重因素影响，贵金属上涨动力十分强 劲。中长期来看，美国经济不确定性增大，美联储降息预期升温，实际利率下行直接降低了贵金属的持 有成本，同时美元信用弱化引发美元贬值预期，在多重因素支撑下，贵金属或长期保持偏多走势。 市场投资避险情绪升温 美东时间10月10日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征100%关税， 并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。10月12日，商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记 者问时表示，10月9日，中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府依据法律法 规，完善自身出口管制体系的正常行为。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为 引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商基础上， 通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤 行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 今年以来，特朗普的政策主张始终在政府裁员、驱逐移民、财政法案、俄乌与加沙促进和平谈判、施压 美联储降息、与各国贸易谈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has strengthened export controls on rare earth materials and related items in response to U.S. tariffs and trade policies, emphasizing that these measures are not prohibitive but regulatory, aimed at maintaining national security and international stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced two measures to strengthen export controls on rare earth-related items and technologies, including five types of heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1]. - The spokesperson clarified that China's export controls are not a ban and that compliant applications will be approved, highlighting a commitment to facilitating legitimate trade [3]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. has been accused of using discriminatory practices in its export controls, with over 3,000 items on its control list compared to China's 900, which the Chinese government claims disrupts international trade order and supply chain stability [2]. - The U.S. has recently implemented a series of restrictions against Chinese entities, including adding them to export control lists and imposing high tariffs, which China views as an incorrect approach to bilateral relations [2]. Group 3: Response to U.S. Actions - In response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipping, China has decided to impose special port fees on U.S. vessels, which is seen as a necessary defensive measure to protect its industries and ensure fair competition in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets [4][5]. - The Chinese government has expressed a desire for dialogue and cooperation, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and return to a path of negotiation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market volatility triggered by social media comments from a prominent figure, leading to significant declines in various asset classes, particularly cryptocurrencies, which saw nearly $20 billion in liquidations within 24 hours and over 1.6 million accounts affected [1]. Market Volatility - Market fluctuations are considered reasonable and almost inevitable, especially in a market lacking a robust short-selling mechanism, which can exacerbate volatility beyond typical levels [3]. - Historical data indicates that October is the month with the highest volatility in the U.S. stock market over the past 80 years [4]. Recent Market Performance - The article compares the recent market downturn to previous trade tensions, highlighting that the Nasdaq index fell by over 3.5%, marking its largest single-day drop since April [8]. - The performance of various indices during the recent trade tensions is detailed, showing significant declines across multiple asset classes, including a 44.76% drop in the three-times leveraged ETF for China [7]. Investment Strategies - Two main strategies are suggested for navigating short-term volatility: 1. **For Existing Capital**: Emphasizes the importance of preemptive measures rather than reactive ones, advocating for balanced asset allocation to reduce volatility and maintain positions during market fluctuations [17][18]. 2. **For New Capital**: Recommends preparing to invest incrementally as indices decline, specifically suggesting a 10% drop as a benchmark for adding positions [20]. Fund Management Insights - The article advises against focusing solely on high-performing, single-style funds and instead suggests selecting funds with a strong margin of safety, highlighting a specific fund manager known for a balanced investment approach [21][24]. Market Valuation Context - The article provides a comparative analysis of market valuations before and after significant market events, noting a 31.74% increase in margin financing over the past six months, which may influence market stability [30][31]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying value of stocks, which is determined by earnings and valuations, rather than solely relying on market interventions [28].

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 铜价冲高回落 但持续下跌空间有限后市或仍相对偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 宏观方面，2025-10-11当周，关税方面，美国总统特朗普称将于11月1日起，对中国进口商品加征100%的新关税， 此税率为在现有已支付关税基础上额外增加的部分；此外美国也会在同日对"所有关键软件"实施出口管制；关税 风险显著升温。美国政府方面，美国共和党提出的结束美国政府停摆的法案未能在参议院获得足够票数，法案未 获通过；美国总统特朗普表示他计划削减一些受民主党欢迎的联邦项目；美国整体财政风险仍较为突出。美联储 方面，9月议息会议纪要显示联储内部对于未来降息路径分歧愈发明显，尽管多数官员支持年内进一步降息，但仍 有7名官员认为无需再降息，支持更大幅度降息50个基点的仅有美联储理事米兰；市场强化了对10月继续降息的定 价，Fedwatch显示10月降息25BP概率已达98.3%。矿端方面，2025-10-11当周，适逢中国国庆长假及结构首个交易 日，且LME伦敦会议临近，铜精矿现货市场交投清淡。节前Sierra Gorda招标结果显示，2025年1万吨成交于-90美 元，2026年2万吨为- ...

External Tariff Disturbances - Since 2018, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have shown that China's manufacturing competitiveness is difficult to contain or replace, with China's export share of global exports increasing from 12.7% in 2018 to an expected 14.6% in 2024 [1] - Capital markets typically experience a one-time "provisioning" followed by a "rebound" and "hedging" as external shocks are absorbed, as seen in the market's response to tariff changes in 2025 [2] - The safety margin of the assets themselves is a more critical pricing factor than external disturbances, as evidenced by the performance of the "Mao Index" and "Ning Combination" during tariff escalations [2] Long-term Confidence in Chinese Economy and Assets - There is a maintained long-term confidence in the Chinese economy and assets, with the number of high-tech enterprises expected to reach 463,000 in 2024, 1.7 times that of 2020 [3] - If external demand is impacted, the timing of counter-cyclical policy signals often serves as a crucial asset pricing coordinate, especially in the context of expected growth stabilization in Q4 [3] - A broad-based asset allocation is recommended to avoid excessive exposure to single-sided asset risks, particularly given the high valuations in the US stock market [3] Market Dynamics and Asset Rotation - In the second week of October, risk-off sentiment dominated, leading to a decline in asset rotation and increased volatility, with the VIX index rising above 20 [4] - The global stock market experienced a risk-off phase due to the US government shutdown and tariff escalations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [5] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with gold and silver performing well while oil prices retreated [6] Commodity Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have shown strength, with gold rising by 2.3% and silver by 6.6% in recent weeks, reflecting a significant year-to-date increase [7] - The copper market experienced fluctuations, initially rising but then declining due to tariff impacts, with LME copper futures dropping by 3.0% [7] - Domestic pricing for certain commodities, such as rebar, has shown slight recovery, indicating resilience in specific sectors [8] US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The US government shutdown is expected to continue until mid-October, increasing short-term economic uncertainty, while the upcoming CPI report on October 25 will provide critical inflation data for the Federal Reserve [12][14] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a preference for two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year to support employment and balance risks, reflecting a cautious shift towards gradual easing [15][14] Domestic Economic Indicators - The September construction PMI fell to 49, indicating contraction, but new orders and business activity expectations have shown signs of improvement [21] - The establishment of new policy financial tools has led to significant funding allocations for infrastructure and emerging industries, with over 110 billion yuan already disbursed [22] Price Competition Regulation - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address price disorder in the market, emphasizing the need for fair competition and self-regulation among businesses [23][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The escalation of the tariff war may cause the Container Shipping Index (European Line) to continue its weak performance temporarily. The supply and demand situation of the European line is complex, with potential fluctuations in freight rates and market sentiment affected by trade friction and other factors. [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - The weekly average capacity in October was revised down from 265,000 TEU/week before the holiday to 257,000 TEU/week, mainly due to many postponed sailings on the FE4 route. The spot market will mainly take cargo for Weeks 43 and 44 next week, corresponding to capacity supplies of 290,000 and 335,000 TEU respectively, with relatively sufficient cabin space. [4] - The weekly average capacity in November was 310,000 TEU/week before the holiday, with little overall change in the past two weeks. Currently, it is 307,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), a month-on-month increase of 19% and a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. [4] - December includes 6 pending and 3 empty sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 295,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages). Due to many pending voyages, there is room for significant revision in the future. [4] - In the short term, considering comprehensive loading and suspension information, the reduction of empty sailings by the PA Alliance in mid - to late October reduced the pressure on shipowners to take cargo after the holiday. However, there was no significant improvement in demand in late October, so the freight rate increase in late October lacked a solid cargo volume foundation. Observe the freight rate adjustment actions next week. [4] - The trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) in August reached 1.85 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2%. The cumulative trade volume from January to August was 13.18 million TEU, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 9.7%. [4] Price - It is expected that the SCFIS European Line Index for Week 41 (October 13) will slightly decline from the previous period (1046.50 points); there is also a certain probability of oscillation. Considering that the ships of the PA Alliance with significant pre - holiday price cuts will not be reflected in this period's index but in the index on October 20. [5] - For the 2510 contract, it will fluctuate narrowly around 1100 points. [5] - For the 2512 contract, the seasonal characteristics of the European line cannot be ignored. The escalation of the trade friction will inevitably lead to market adjustments. It is recommended to treat the 2512 contract with a wide - range oscillation mindset (1400 - 1800 points), and pay attention to the unilateral low - buying opportunities brought by the tariff event next week. [5] - For the 2602 contract, due to the later Spring Festival in 2026 compared to 2025, the valuation of the 2602 contract depends more on the freight rate level in January. It is recommended to intervene in the 02 - 04 positive spread with a light position. [6] - The counter - measures taken by China against the US USTR port surcharges will have a limited impact on the European line market. [6] Demand Side - From the perspective of China's exports (valued in amount, updated to August), in August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of China's exports in US dollars dropped from 7.2% in July to 4.4%, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5.5%. Exports to the US continued to decline, while exports to the EU continued high - growth, and exports to ASEAN increased significantly. [26] - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe (updated to August), the container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) in August reached 1.85 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. [4] - From the perspective of Asia's exports to North America, the container trade volume between Asia and North America in August 2025 was 2.0148 million TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. [33] Supply Side - **Ship Schedule**: The weekly average capacity in October was revised down. The weekly average capacity in November was 307,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), and December had 6 pending and 3 empty sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 295,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages). [38][39] - **Dynamic Capacity**: In the past week, the speeds of 8,000 - 11,999 TEU, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, and 17,000+ TEU container fleets were maintained at around 15, 15.2, and 15.2 knots respectively. As of October 10, the number of idle ships in the 8 - 11,999 TEU, 12 - 16,999 TEU, and 17,000+ TEU container fleets was 12, 7, and 2 respectively. [50] - **Turnover Efficiency**: Analyzed the congestion situations of container ships at ports in different regions such as China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and Asia. [52] - **Static Capacity**: From August to October, multiple new container ships of the top ten liner companies were launched and deployed on different routes. From October to December, the top ten liner companies will receive 15 new 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships (228,000 TEU) and 3 new 17,000+ TEU container ships. [72][74]