Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of constructing a new development pattern in China, focusing on high-quality economic development and self-reliance as a response to both domestic and international challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding the New Development Pattern - The new development pattern is characterized by a domestic major circulation as its main body, addressing the need for a strong domestic market to enhance economic resilience [3][4]. - It is an open dual circulation model that connects domestic and international markets, aiming to utilize global resources while enhancing domestic economic capabilities [4][5]. Group 2: Advantages of the New Development Pattern - The strategy reflects the central leadership's deep understanding of China's economic and social development, leading to significant progress in policy implementation and institutional improvement [7]. - The domestic major circulation's internal driving force is strengthening, with consumer spending contributing an average of 56.2% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [8]. Group 3: Key Components for Implementation - The smooth operation of economic circulation is crucial, requiring a balance between supply and demand, and addressing existing bottlenecks [5][6]. - Emphasis on technological self-reliance is vital for ensuring the stability of domestic circulation and gaining advantages in international circulation [6][11]. Group 4: Enhancing Domestic Demand - The strategy includes expanding effective investment and boosting consumption through various supportive policies, aiming to enhance the overall economic structure [17][18]. - The integration of technology and industry innovation is prioritized to foster new economic growth drivers and improve productivity [18]. Group 5: Regional and International Cooperation - The article highlights the importance of coordinated regional development and the integration of urban and rural economies to optimize the domestic circulation space [19][20]. - It advocates for high-level opening-up to better leverage international circulation, enhancing trade and investment quality [20][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend yesterday. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 47 ports increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline. The iron - water production decreased due to steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the strong steel export provides some support. In July, the iron - water production will continue to decline, and the steel mill profit will improve. The short - term iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [1] - For coke, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market bottomed out, and mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase. The supply is expected to increase as some coal mines resume production, but the production is difficult to boost due to losses. The demand may decline as Tangshan conducts environmental protection production restrictions, and the iron - water production is expected to be around 238 tons per day in July. The inventory is at a medium level, and it is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall spot market is in a bottom - rebound trend. The supply is expected to increase but the overall production recovery is slow, and the supply is still in short supply. The demand decreased as the coking and blast furnace operations declined slightly. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of most powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1] - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index also increased slightly [1] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1] Demand - The average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons, the 45 - port average daily dredging volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 3.0% and 3.9% respectively [1] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.74% and 0.54% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the J09 - J01 spread decreased. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [2] Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [2] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly by 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84%, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and port inventory increased [2] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 2 [2] Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of sample coal mines increased by 0.34% and 0.3% respectively [2] Demand - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5%, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, port inventory increased, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly [2]

近期，国债期货整体呈现下跌走势。截至7月14日收盘，10年期、5年期、30年期和2年期国债期货主力 合约跌幅分别为0.08%、0.05%、0.18%和0.03%。 "近期国债期货小幅调整的主要原因在于政策预期升温。"一德期货宏观经济分析师刘晓艺表示，7月以 来，政策层多次释放"反内卷"信号，市场对月末中共中央政治局会议推出相关政策的预期不断增强。股 票和商品价格上行，一定程度上对债市形成压制，叠加近期资金面有所收敛，月中税期临近，机构情绪 趋向谨慎，国债期货小幅调整。 金芸立表示，在"反内卷"交易逻辑出现之前，债市交易拥挤度较高，机构行为较为一致，久期水平也升 至高位。因此，当不利因素出现时，债券市场波动明显加大。但从债市基本面看，自6月央行货币政策 公布后，资金价格持续下行，7月临近税期缴款，资金面略有收紧，但仍处于今年以来的低位水平。同 时，当前国内经济仍处于温和复苏状态，地产市场及实体信用尚未修复。因此，资金面宽松以及基本面 未明显改善仍将为债市提供有力支撑。 展望后市，金芸立表示，从债券的定价角度看，基本面决定了货币政策的宽松方向，供给优化预期下市 场情绪高涨，但对比2015年的行情可以发现，彼时债市 ...

每经编辑｜彭水萍 近期，半年报业绩预告持续披露，受市场环境影响，煤炭、焦炭价格整体下行，煤炭企业利润承压。受利润下探影响，煤炭板块回调，煤炭 ETF（515220）年初至今跌超10%。"反内卷"背景下，煤炭板块预期向好，煤炭ETF（515220）持续吸金，连续5日净流入额超14亿元，当前规 模近60亿元。 1、"反内卷"预期升温，煤炭供需或改善 近日，中国煤炭运销协会召开上半年煤炭经济运行分析座谈会。会议强调，加强行业自律，整治内卷式竞争，促进煤炭市场供需平衡。 国家发改委2024年提出"反内卷"指导方针，要求传统行业避免低价倾销、重复建设。煤炭行业作为能源安全"压舱石"，2025年将重点整治合同 违约、供给过剩等乱象。 机构分析指出，行业自律将减少市场煤价波动，5500大卡动力煤长协价有望维持在700元-750元/吨区间；同时，淘汰落后产能可提升头部企业 市占率，前5大煤企利润占比或从2024年的42%升至2025年的48%。 2、历史供给侧改革期，煤炭行情占优 （1）2016年"供给侧改革"：煤炭较沪深300超额近10% 2016年2月，国务院发布《关于煤炭行业化解过剩产能实现脱困发展的意见》，煤炭行业供 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月16日08时17分 报告导读： 二季度及上半年经济数据公布，房地产方面的数据仍偏弱，显示目前该行业仍处于震荡筑底的过程中 。另外，中央城市工作会议在京举行，并无上 周传闻的所谓的重磅利多。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹产量有所下降，厂库回升，社库继续下降，总库存继续下降，表观需求 环比有所回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会小幅回升 。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 ，但是强预期主要是"反内卷"可能带来的新一轮供给侧改革，对政策的乐观预期也有所加强。从技 术上看，期价脉冲式上涨后遇阻，上方有前期的跳空缺口以及年线等的压制 。 操作建议： 维持观望 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 239.8 万吨，环比上周下降 1.0 万吨。随着下游消费高峰期结束以及钢 厂的限产，预计近期铁水产量将进一步回落 。 ...

21世纪经济报道特约记者庞华玮 广州报道 最近一个月，A股"反内卷"主题行情火了，钢铁、光伏、建材等板块全面爆发。 Wind数据显示，最近18个交易日（6月20日至7月15日），申万一级行业指数中的钢铁、建筑材料、电 力设备等行业涨幅均超过8%。 机构认为，反内卷成为当前热议的主题，十年前供给收缩带来超额利润的场景有望再一次重演。随 着"反内卷"扩散至各行各业，"反内卷"主题有望持续演绎，成为接下来一段时间的主线。其中，光伏、 汽车、钢铁等行业备受关注。 但机构指出，"反内卷"行情可能分为三阶段：第一阶段政策催化下的预期阶段，第二阶段定价资源品价 格上涨，第三阶段定价资源品高价横住的时间。综合来看，目前"反内卷"行情尚在第一阶段的预期阶 段，后续仍需观察政策落地和产能出清情况，如果没有真实的出清，行情可能不会有后续两个阶段。 行情启动 最近一个月，"反内卷"成为市场焦点。中央财经委第六次会议于7月1日召开，会议强调，纵深推进全国 统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落 后产能有序退出。 "反内卷"行情启动。最具代表性的是，时隔4年，光伏产业链重新站到市场C位 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [2] Core Insights - The current environment in the coal industry is characterized by high operating rates leading to "involution" competition, rather than the previous "supply-side" overcapacity scenario. The focus should be on controlling operating rates to mitigate this competition [1][27] - In 2016, national coal production capacity was approximately 5.73 billion tons, with a production of 3.41 billion tons, indicating low capacity utilization. By 2022, production capacity exceeded 4.4 billion tons, with production reaching 4.55 billion tons, and is projected to reach 4.76 billion tons by 2024, suggesting excessively high operating rates [1][19] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Context - The coal supply-side reform initiated in 2015 aimed to eliminate around 500 million tons of capacity over 3 to 5 years, with significant reductions in the number of coal mines and improvements in safety and market pricing mechanisms [8][9][10] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - The coal industry is currently facing a situation where high operating rates are leading to price competition, which is different from the previous overcapacity issues. The focus should be on managing these operating rates to stabilize the market [1][27] 3. Future Outlook - The report suggests that unlike the petrochemical industry, which may focus on eliminating refining capacity, the coal industry should prioritize controlling operating rates to address the current competitive pressures [1][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, on July 15, 2025, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend. The weekly data indicated that the apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, production followed the decline in demand, and inventory remained stable. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply remains abundant, lacking strong price - driving forces. Currently, the low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, but the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. For operation, observe whether the current prices of rebar at 3100 and hot - rolled coils at 3300 can be effectively broken through, and if so, focus on the next pressure levels of 3220 (rebar) and 3350 (hot - rolled coils) [1]. - For the iron ore industry, on July 14, 2025, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. The demand side was affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, with molten iron production declining from its peak. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and short - term molten iron shows resilience. In the future, molten iron production in July is expected to continue to decline, and steel mill profits will improve. Short - term iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [4]. - For the coke industry, on July 14, 2025, the coke futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations improved. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented later. The supply side may face difficulties in increasing production due to enterprise losses, and the demand side is affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, with molten iron production reaching a peak and starting to decline. The inventory is at a medium level, and downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is beneficial for future price increases. It is recommended to conduct hedging for the coke 2601 contract on rallies, buy on dips for the coke 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. - For the coking coal industry, on July 14, 2025, the coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall coal mine production recovered slowly, remaining in short supply. Imported coal showed different trends, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal prices rising. The demand side saw a slight decline in coking and blast furnace operations, but the downstream restocking intensity increased. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to buy on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210, 3190, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176, 3138, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4, 5, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3200, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287, 3276, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6, 3, and 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1]. - The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 160, 130, and 270 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 27, 1, and 47 yuan. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240, 150, and 230 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 17, 17, and 7 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons (- 0.5%) compared to the previous value. The production of five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons (- 1.4%) [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons (0.0%); the rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons (- 0.9%); the hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons (0.2%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons (5.0%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons (- 1.4%); the apparent demand for rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons (- 1.5%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2, 794.2, 804.0, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2 yuan/ton. The 09 - contract basis of these four types of iron ore decreased significantly, with decreases of - 47.3 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton (- 4.3%); the 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton (9.1%); the 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.6%) [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons (7.2%); the global weekly shipment volume was 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons (- 0.3%); the national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons (- 0.4%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons (0.1%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 56.8 tons (- 0.4%) compared to Monday of the previous week; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons (0.7%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 days (5.3%) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of coke 09 and 01 contracts were 1526 and 1569 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 119 and - 163 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.6%) [6]. - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons (- 8.84%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons (4.7%) [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0 and 5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal 09 and 01 contracts were 920 and 938 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7 and 18 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 26 and - 70 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 2 and 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons (0.34%); the weekly clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (0.34%) [6]. - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons (- 7.5%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons (5.24%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons (- 0.8%); the port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].

Economic Growth and Indicators - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is reported at 5.3%, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% and fixed asset investment rising by 2.8% [1] - Social retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in June [1] - The total social financing scale reached 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1] Urbanization and Structural Changes - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the need for integrated planning in population, industry, and urban development, transitioning from rapid growth to stable development [2] - The focus is on improving public services and developing a new model for real estate, particularly in urban villages and dilapidated housing [2] Consumption and Investment Dynamics - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating that domestic demand, especially consumption, is the main driver of GDP growth [3] - Investment growth has been volatile, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 2.8%, largely due to a significant decline in real estate investment [5][6] - Private investment decreased by 0.6%, but other sectors excluding real estate saw a 5.1% increase [6] Price Trends and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.1% in June, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% [7][8] - The CPI's marginal recovery is attributed to stable industrial consumer goods prices and a relatively stable service price environment [9] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Traditional industries are facing downward pressure on prices due to overcapacity and low-price competition, particularly in sectors like cement and steel [10][11] - The "anti-involution" strategy aims to address structural issues in supply and demand, promoting orderly exit of outdated capacities [11] - New growth drivers are emerging, but their impact is currently limited, necessitating a transition period for traditional industries [12]

Group 1: Solar Industry - The solar industry is experiencing a dual bottom in fundamentals and market sentiment, with expectations for supply-side reforms strengthening [9][11]. - In Q2, domestic solar installations are expected to increase significantly, driven by a surge in demand, with a total of 197.9 GW added in the first five months of 2025, representing a 150% year-on-year growth [15][19]. - The profitability across different segments of the solar supply chain is expected to diverge, with silicon material prices under pressure while silicon wafers, cells, and modules benefit from price increases due to demand [13][14]. Group 2: Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is seeing a significant increase in shipments, with domestic large-scale storage demand recovering, and overall profitability remaining stable [39][44]. - In the first five months of 2025, global energy storage battery shipments reached 196.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 118%, driven by domestic demand and favorable tariff conditions [54][60]. - The domestic energy storage market is expected to maintain high growth, with cumulative installations reaching 13.4 GW/32.1 GWh in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a 57% year-on-year increase [54][55]. Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent government policies are focused on addressing "involution" in competition, with measures aimed at balancing supply and demand and promoting industry self-discipline [32][34]. - The solar and energy storage sectors are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, which is anticipated to enhance market stability and encourage technological advancements [38][36]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring industry price trends, component production rates, and the timing of supply-side policy announcements as key indicators for investment opportunities [38].