关税博弈进入新阶段，美方称豁免部分商品"对等关税"，在国内利率接近前低的情况下，对债市来说将 形成一定的调整压力。中期看，降准窗口临近，降息仍待外部约束打开，关税冲击从预期变为现实，货 币政策宽松预期叠加二季度基本面下行压力，债市机会仍大于风险。不过长端利率下行空间受制于央行 对货币政策和资金面的态度，1.6%以下交易空间有限，而短端收益率则受益于资金宽松预期。 近期债市主线为关税扰动对经济基本面的压力和货币宽松的博弈。上周利率一度快速下行至前期低点。 不过在全球关税政策反复，国内一系列稳市场政策支撑股指市场回暖背景下，利率运行至年内低点后维 持震荡走势，10年期国债利率在1.6%~1.7%区间震荡，货币宽松预期下收益率曲线趋陡。 一方面，当前市场资金利率较年初偏高，"曲线倒挂+过度的宽松预期"酝酿债市风险，与3月债市调整的 诱因相似；另一方面，政策应对较积极背景下，市场存在"政策加力对冲关税影响"预期。因此，在关 税"部分豁免"消息、一季度金融数据偏强，以及政策对冲效应下，长端债市表现相对偏弱，而受益于资 金面改善预期，短端收益率下行确定性更高，收益率曲线或小幅趋陡。（作者单位：新湖期货） 目前债市对关税政 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market environment, monetary policy, and economic conditions in China, with a focus on interest rates and their implications for investment strategies. Core Points and Arguments - The current market environment shows similarities to Q2 2019, particularly in terms of fundamentals and US-China relations, leading to a medium-term bullish outlook despite potential short-term volatility [2][3][4] - The central bank is adopting a macro-prudential stance, indicating that there will not be rapid interest rate cuts or hikes in the short term, which could lead to upward pressure on rates if fiscal policies are not aligned [3][10][12] - Credit supply is shifting from being supply-constrained to demand-constrained, necessitating a sequence of fiscal expansion before monetary easing to avoid idle capital [3][13] - The likelihood of a comprehensive interest rate cut in April is low, but a reduction in reserve requirements is more probable, with short-term rate declines being difficult unless unexpected events occur [3][16] - The current interest rate rebound is limited, and significant policy changes are required to see a notable increase in rates, with a potential for a volatile market in Q2 [7][15] - The experience from Q2 2022 suggests that a wait-and-see approach can lead to greater economic losses, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks [8][9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The central bank's lack of coordination with fiscal policy during the first quarter has led to a situation where increased government bond issuance has not been matched by monetary easing, resulting in higher rates that could suppress consumption and investment [10][12] - The current geopolitical climate, particularly the challenges in US-China relations, mirrors the uncertainties faced during the pandemic, which could impact market stability and investor sentiment [6][8] - Investors are advised against large-scale duration management or reversal strategies in the current volatile environment, suggesting a focus on gradual adjustments and identifying buying opportunities [11][16] - The historical context of policy responses during previous economic disruptions provides valuable insights for navigating the current market landscape, highlighting the importance of timely interventions [8][14]

25年3月金融数据：总量超预期，结构优化 事项：2025年4月13日，央行发布25年3月金融数据，新增社融5.89万 亿，同比多增1.05万亿，好于wind市场预期的4.73万亿；信贷口径，新 增人民币贷款3.64万亿，同比多增5500亿元，较市场预期高7150亿 元。 1 社融多增主要是政府债和信贷贡献，信用债明显少增 3月社融同比多增1.05万亿，体现了财政靠前发力的效果，3月政府债同 比多增1.02万亿；社融口径信贷同比多增5358亿元，政府债置换对信贷 的影响趋于尾声，二者基本是主要同比多增项目。而受融资成本上升影 响，企业信用债3月整体维持净偿还状态，同比少增5142亿元；外币贷 款受关税背景下人民币贬值预期影响，同比少增837亿元；非标融资同 比微幅少增63亿元。 2 信贷的主要拉动项是企业短贷，其次是票据和居民中长贷 3月6M国股转贴现利率上行21BP，好于24年同期的下行30BP，3月信 贷新增3.09万亿，同比多增且好于预期。结构上企业好于居民，居民中 长贷更好，企业短贷更好： 2025年4月14日 （1）居民端，居民短贷同比微幅少增，而居民中长贷受益于地产销售 改善同比多增。3月30城地产 ...

4月3日-4日，美股缩水约6.6万亿美元，为史上最大的两日市值蒸发。 4月3日，人民币兑美元汇率迅速跌破7.3；4月9日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中跌至7.4290。4月3日以来，澳元、韩元、越南盾等亚太货币亦跌至数年新 低。 4月7日，延续了前几个交易日跌势后，国际金价跌破3000美元/盎司关口，至三周来最低水平。 "有时候几十年什么都没有发生，有时候几周却发生了几十年的事。"——在美国总统特朗普征收"对等关税"后，这成为全球金融市场巨震最为恰切的注 脚。 这场金融风暴背后的起因是远超市场预期的关税之战。 据新华社报道，当地时间4月2日，特朗普在白宫签署关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴 征收更高关税。 短短几日后，美国与多国的博弈再度加剧。 据新华社报道，国务院关税税则委员会4月9日发布公告称，经国务院批准，自2025年4月10日12时01分起，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美 国的进口商品加征关税的公告》规定的加征关税税率，由34%提高至84%。其他事项按照税委会公告2025年第4号文件执行。 4月11日，中国财政部发布公告，称将调整《国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond ETF market is experiencing significant trading activity and inflows, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in this sector [1][2][6]. Trading Activity - The company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.02% to a price of 105.64 yuan, while the national development bond ETF (159651) showed mixed trading with a price of 105.77 yuan [1]. - The national treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) rose by 0.04%, reaching 117.16 yuan [1]. - The company bond ETF had a turnover rate of 15.82% with a transaction volume of 2.04 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume for the company bond ETF was 2.527 billion yuan [1]. Fund Flows - The company bond ETF saw a net inflow of 1.166 billion yuan over four days, with a peak single-day inflow of 527 million yuan [2]. - The national development bond ETF attracted a total of 69.658 million yuan in net inflows over the same period [2]. - The national treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years recorded a net inflow of 31.368 million yuan over nine trading days [2]. Fund Size and Shares - The latest size of the company bond ETF reached 12.894 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. - The national development bond ETF experienced a significant increase in size, growing by 49.713 million yuan over the past week [1]. - The national development bond ETF also saw an increase of 2.142 million shares in the past month, ranking it among the top in its category [1]. Market Conditions - The bond market has largely priced in high tariffs, with future trends remaining uncertain [6]. - The yield on government bonds has rebounded significantly, reflecting a shift away from pricing in financial crisis risks [6]. - The RMB has depreciated against a basket of currencies, with the USD/RMB exchange rate reaching 7.4, which may limit monetary easing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in China's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) operations in the bond market and the implications for liquidity and interest rates in the financial system [1][6]. Group 1: Current Issues in the Bond Market - After the Spring Festival, funding rates have significantly deviated upwards from the reverse repurchase rate, with the 7-day rate exceeding the upper limit of the interest rate corridor during tax periods [2]. - The market is experiencing confusion regarding policy pricing due to the lack of a policy anchor for government bond rates and the unknown acceptable interest rate level from the PBOC [2]. Group 2: MLF Operations - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has resumed net injections, characterized by three key features: advance announcement of bidding, cessation of publishing the winning rate, and a return to conventional monetary tool attributes [3]. - The MLF's cost is now close to the interbank deposit rate, indicating its potential role as a regular liquidity tool moving forward [3]. Group 3: OMO Announcements - Starting March 25, the PBOC began to publish both the bidding and winning amounts for reverse repos, which may provide new insights into the central bank's policy stance [4]. - The difference between the bidding and winning amounts can reflect the market's liquidity demand and the PBOC's monetary policy attitude [4]. Group 4: Government Bond Transactions - The PBOC has not resumed government bond purchases, opting instead for a significant reverse repo injection of 800 billion yuan [5]. - The current demand for long-term liquidity from commercial banks remains high, and the resumption of government bond transactions may be necessary for providing long-term liquidity [5]. Group 5: Implications of Policy Changes - The recent policy changes suggest a more transparent communication method between the PBOC and the market, enhancing channels for expectation management [7]. - The PBOC's decision to pause government bond purchases may be influenced by the need to maintain independence and avoid exacerbating supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the financing demand in the real economy remains to be boosted, particularly in traditional industries, which require further monetary policy support. The current cautious stance of the central bank may lead to continued pressure on the bond market in March, but a potential "targeted reserve requirement and interest rate cut" is expected to materialize in the second quarter, guiding a new downward trend in the bond market [6][14][19] - In February 2025, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 22,333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,374 billion yuan. The government bonds contributed significantly to this increase, with a year-on-year rise of 10,956 billion yuan, marking the highest level in recent years. However, the growth of special bonds was limited, with only an additional 1,000 billion yuan in the first two months [8][11][14] - The report indicates that the short-term outlook for the bond market is less favorable, with interest rates likely to rise above 1.90% by the end of March due to banks' needs to realize OCI floating profits. However, in the long term, interest rates are expected to decline again as monetary policy loosening takes effect [6][14][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank believes the current monetary policy is sufficiently utilized, and there may not be a strong necessity for further easing in the short term. The central bank's cautious approach, combined with obstacles in credit issuance, may lead to different market reactions in the short and long term [11][13][14] - The financing willingness of enterprises and residents remains low, particularly in traditional sectors, which still require monetary policy support. The report suggests that the second quarter may see the implementation of monetary policy measures to stimulate financing demand in the real economy and alleviate banking operational pressures [14][19][27] - The report recommends gradually positioning investments around the end of March to capitalize on the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the second quarter, which could drive a new round of strength in the bond market [14][19][27]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The inflation rate in February showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of -0.4% and the previous value of 0.5% [3][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of -2.1% but higher than the previous value of -2.3% [5][20] - The report indicates that the CPI and PPI are expected to remain low, with CPI fluctuating between 0-1% in the near term, while PPI is anticipated to show slight recovery [7][27] Data Summary - February CPI year-on-year growth was -0.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2% [3][9] - February PPI year-on-year growth was -2.2%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.1% [5][20] - The core CPI for February showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.1%, marking the first negative growth in nearly four years [4][10] Specific Analysis - The report highlights that the CPI's decline is primarily due to the significant drop in food prices, which fell by 3.3% year-on-year, contributing to over 80% of the total CPI decline [4][10] - The PPI's decline is attributed to seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, slow post-holiday resumption of production, and falling prices of some international commodities [5][20] - The report notes that the core CPI's negative growth reflects weak demand and a need for improved supply-demand relationships to stabilize prices [7][30] Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI will experience low fluctuations in the near term, while the PPI is expected to gradually recover as the impact of seasonal factors diminishes [7][27] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and stabilize prices [7][30] - The bond market is expected to face short-term adjustments, but the long-term trend remains unchanged, with a forecast for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize between 1.8% and 2.0% [7][30]

在到达止损位时，必须坚定止损，绝对不能拖延，心存侥幸地做希望交易，让"跌了 - 有希望"的人性弱点在脑子里发酵和强化。越拖延越下不了手，直到 情绪奔溃，越怕止损在最高点，越有可能止损在（收益率的）最高点。 ——笔记哥《应对》 犹记得，去年4月以来，央妈每次苦口婆心、提示风险，债农总是不屑一顾、名曰"倒车接人"。而近期债市"倒车撞人"，终于让债农认清谁才是市场的 Queen。 不打你，不是打不过你，而是舍不得打疼你。娃儿们可长点心吧！ 【笔记20250310— 30年国债升破2.0%（-午后股市回升+2月通胀数据低于预期+资金面平衡宽松=中上)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展965亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有970亿元逆回购到期。此外，今日国库现金定存中标总量1500亿元。合计净投放1495亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格较为平稳，DR001与DR007均在1.8%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.03.10) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the funding environment has remained tight, particularly with a noticeable increase in short-term interest rates. The article explores the remaining government debt supply for the first quarter, the liquidity gap in March, and whether the funding situation will improve [1][4]. Group 1: Funding Tightness - The funding environment has been tight since the start of 2025, with the central bank increasing the scale of reverse repos. Despite this, the pressure on liquidity has slightly eased from January to February, with a reduction in liquidity stratification [1][4]. - The central bank's operations included a resumption of 14-day reverse repos before the Spring Festival, while the scale of medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to decrease. The buyout reverse repo operations have provided significant support for medium to long-term liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt Supply - In March, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds will reach approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of nearly 650 billion yuan after accounting for 712.2 billion yuan in maturing bonds. Local government bonds are expected to total around 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a combined net financing scale of over 1.8 trillion yuan for government debt [2][14]. Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is projected to be around 260 billion yuan, indicating some pressure on the funding environment. However, after the "Two Sessions," funding rates are expected to trend towards easing, with the central bank's net injection likely to increase marginally [3][19]. - The article suggests that the central bank may primarily use buyout reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term liquidity during the phase of increased government debt supply, which could lead to a decrease in funding rates, especially for short-term bonds [19].