Group 1 - In May, China's economy showed overall stability and improvement in some indicators, reflecting strong resilience and vitality [1] - The macroeconomic policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to stabilize economic operations [2] - The decline in China's goods imports is influenced by multiple factors, including global trade uncertainties and reduced international economic growth [3] Group 2 - The real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, supported by the implementation of various stabilizing policies [5] - The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5% in May, with a continuous decline in youth unemployment over the past three months, indicating a stable employment situation [6]

二是政策发力显效，行稳致远有保障。今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，加大逆周期调 节，加快推进"两重"建设和"两新"工作，有力增强了消费活力，带动了生产增长，促进了转型升级，充 分展现了宏观政策对稳定经济运行的重要作用。从下阶段情况看，我国政策工具箱储备充足，宏观政策 留有后手，可以根据形势变化动态调整、积极应对，将继续为经济稳定运行保驾护航。 三是创新动能壮大，向好发展有支撑。我国坚持高质量发展不动摇，加快培育壮大新质生产力，科技创 新和产业创新加快融合，新兴产业发展态势较好，传统产业焕新升级，数字经济、绿色经济发展方兴未 艾，不断成长的新动能将为经济发展提供源源不断的新动力。1-5月份，规模以上数字产品制造业增加 值同比增长9.9%，1-4月份规模以上专精特新"小巨人"服务业企业营业收入增长18.4%，充分体现了新动 能的强大活力。 付凌晖表示，还要看到，近期中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，就落实两国元首6月5日重要通话共识和巩固 日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展，有利于推动中美 经贸关系稳定和可持续发展，也将为世界经济注入更多稳定性和确定性。 付凌晖指出，当然 ...

国家统计局：我国政策工具箱的储备充足 宏观政策留有后手 金十数据6月16日讯，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在国新办发布会上表示，下阶段，我国政策工具箱 的储备充足，宏观政策留有后手，可以根据形势变化动态调整、积极应对，将继续为经济的稳定运行保 驾护航。 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The overall market outlook remains optimistic despite external uncertainties, with the belief that the upward trend in the Chinese stock market is not yet over [1][2] - Investors' understanding of the economic and international situation is comprehensive, and new technologies and consumer opportunities are emerging, indicating a structural positive shift [1][2] - The reduction in risk-free interest rates has lowered the opportunity cost of investing in stocks, marking a historical turning point for long-term and retail investors [1][3] Group 2: Economic and Investment Trends - Economic expectations are undergoing a positive transformation, which is not a short-term phenomenon, with the stock market's expectations reflecting a range rather than a single point [2] - The focus on supply-side innovation is driving demand creation, with capital expenditure in both new and old economies expected to recover and enter a phase of differentiated growth by 2025 [2][3] Group 3: Currency and Asset Valuation - The stability of the RMB is expected to play a significant role in the revaluation of Chinese assets, as the global economic order is being reshaped and the dollar's credibility is declining [3] - The decline in discount rates is leading to a market environment where emerging technologies are the main focus, with financial sectors and high-dividend stocks benefiting from the lower risk-free rates [3] Group 4: Sector Recommendations - Recommendations include financial and high-dividend sectors such as banks, brokers, and highway operators, which are expected to benefit from the domestic decline in risk-free rates [3] - Emerging technology sectors, particularly in internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology, are highlighted as key growth areas due to intensified competition between China and the US [3] - The cyclical consumption sector is also expected to see a revival, with a focus on domestic supply-demand tightness in cyclical products and new consumption driven by supply [3] Group 5: AI and Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment and industry trends are reminiscent of the 2012-2014 period, where technology drove market performance, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [5][6] - The rapid development of AI applications is expected to accelerate commercialization, with Chinese companies poised to benefit significantly from this trend [6][7] - Hong Kong's tech sector, particularly in software applications, is expected to outperform due to its higher market capitalization in this area compared to A-shares [7]

Domestic Macro Policy - China and the US have reached a framework to implement the consensus from the Geneva talks, emphasizing the importance of professional and rational communication between both sides[5] - The State Council has initiated measures to replicate and promote pilot programs from the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone, focusing on new models for real estate development[3] - The central government is pushing for state-owned capital to concentrate in key industries related to national security and the economy's lifeblood[13] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may consider further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to ensure liquidity remains reasonably ample in the second half of the year[4] - A 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation was announced to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates maturing in June[16] Consumption and Regulation - Local authorities are intensifying regulation of trade-in programs due to frequent cases of subsidy fraud, with measures in place until December 31, 2025[4] - The regulatory emphasis includes strict compliance checks on pricing and promotional practices to prevent fraudulent activities[18] Financial Regulation - Financial regulatory policies are increasingly focused on enhancing financial support for technological innovation and refining new insurance contract accounting standards[19] - The government encourages banks to collaborate with investment institutions to support early-stage, small, long-term, and hard technology investments[21] International Trade - The US has raised tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, impacting various consumer goods[27] - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, with both sides expressing a commitment to deepening cooperation[22]

Market Overview - The convertible bond market experienced narrow fluctuations during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index showing a change of 0% (previous week +1.1%) and the China All Share Index declining by 0.4% [3] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has increased by 4.7%, while the China All Share Index has risen by 1.3%, indicating that the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market [3] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above) saw a change of -0.11%, medium-rated bonds (AA) changed by -0.44%, and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) changed by -0.38%, with high-rated bonds experiencing the least decline [4] - In terms of bond size, large-scale convertible bonds (balance over 5 billion) increased by +0.43%, while medium-scale (5 to 50 billion) and small-scale (under 5 billion) bonds decreased by -0.39% and -0.34%, respectively, with large-scale bonds showing the highest increase [4] Price and Premium Analysis - The average price of convertible bonds is 121.63 yuan, with an average parity of 93.35 yuan and an average conversion premium rate of 30.0% as of June 13, 2025 [5][6] - The average conversion premium rate for medium parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 to 110 yuan) is 24.3%, which is higher than the median conversion premium rate of 19.8% since 2018 [6] Future Outlook - The convertible bond market's future performance will be influenced by economic negotiations, fundamental factors, and macro policies [7] - Current focus areas include convertible bonds linked to companies that can boost domestic demand and those involved in domestic substitution, particularly those with strong underlying stocks [7]

Economic Overview - In 2023, China's economic indicators are operating within a reasonable range despite external shocks and internal challenges, supported by proactive macro policies [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release May's macroeconomic data on June 16, indicating stable economic growth with manufacturing playing a crucial role [1] Manufacturing Sector - In May, manufacturing sales accounted for 30.1% of total sales by enterprises, with equipment manufacturing sales increasing by 7.5% year-on-year [1] - Specific sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication equipment saw sales growth of 15.1%, 13.1%, and 8.6% respectively [1] High-Tech Industry - The high-tech industry experienced a year-on-year sales increase of 15% in May, continuing its rapid growth trend [1] - The core digital economy sector's sales rose by 11.2%, with digital technology procurement increasing by 10.9% [1] - Sales of industrial robots and special operation robots grew by 13.2% and 28.3% year-on-year, respectively [1] Private Sector Performance - Policies supporting the private economy have led to improved performance, with private enterprise sales growth outpacing the national average by 0.9 percentage points, reaching 72.3% of total sales [2] - Private manufacturing and high-tech enterprises also showed sales growth rates higher than their national counterparts by 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively [2] Economic Sentiment and Forecasts - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was reported at 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month [2] - Research institutions predict an overall improvement in domestic economic sentiment due to positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [2][3] - The economic recovery is expected to continue, with fixed asset investment growth remaining stable, particularly in manufacturing and broad infrastructure [3][4] Challenges and Outlook - Despite improvements, the real estate sector continues to decline, and uncertainties remain regarding future trade negotiations [4] - The overall economic growth is projected to maintain around 5% for the second quarter, but further policy measures may be necessary to achieve annual development goals [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stable growth of financial support for the real economy, with significant increases in broad money supply (M2), loans, and social financing scale [1][7][10] - As of the end of May, M2 reached 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the loan balance was 266.32 trillion yuan, up by 7.1% year-on-year [1][3] - The social financing scale stood at 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, indicating a sustained increase in financial support for the real economy [1][7] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds has been a major driver of the increase in social financing, with May seeing a net increase of 2.29 trillion yuan in social financing, up by 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year [7][9] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement exceeded 2 trillion yuan in the last quarter of the previous year and over 1.6 trillion yuan this year, which has replaced approximately 2.3 trillion yuan in loans [4][8] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, while the average interest rate for new personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 55 basis points year-on-year [3][5] Group 3 - The financial structure is evolving, with a notable shift towards direct financing, which is seen as more suitable for high-growth and research-intensive sectors [4][9] - The growth of M1, which increased by 2.3% year-on-year, indicates a recovery in liquidity, while M2 growth remains significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth of 4.6% in the first quarter [10][11] - The government is expected to continue its proactive fiscal policies, with a focus on supporting consumption and innovation in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy [11][12]

Group 1: Economic Recovery and Growth - The implementation of proactive macro policies has led to continuous improvement in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, with enterprises maintaining stable confidence in market development [1][2] - From January to April, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [1] - In May, the manufacturing production index rose by 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, with a business activity expectation index of 52.5% [1] Group 2: Investment and New Growth Drivers - New momentum in production activities is growing rapidly, with significant increases in high-tech industry investments, such as information services (40.6%), computer and office equipment manufacturing (28.9%), and aerospace manufacturing (23.9%) from January to April [2] - The new orders index for high-tech manufacturing remained above 52% for several months, indicating sustained expansion [2] Group 3: Service Sector Recovery - The service sector has shown notable recovery, particularly in tourism and dining during the "May Day" holiday, with business activity indices in transportation and accommodation sectors also in the expansion zone [2] - The business activity expectation index for most service enterprises is at 56.5%, reflecting continued optimism about market development [2] Group 4: Policy Measures and Structural Reforms - Continuous implementation of economic stabilization policies aims to expand domestic demand and strengthen the domestic economy, utilizing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [3] - Efforts to enhance enterprise efficiency include fostering new quality productivity and promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] Group 5: Market Reforms and Opening Up - Comprehensive reforms are being pursued to promote high-level opening up and transition from a large to a strong domestic market, including the establishment of a unified national market and removal of market access barriers [4] - Initiatives to create a national trading platform system and enhance cross-regional trade cooperation are underway [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Referred to as "Chengcai") -云贵区域短流程建筑 steel 生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量 74.1 万吨；安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂停产影响日产量 1.62 万吨左右 [3][4] -2024 年 12 月 30 日 - 2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降 40.3%，同比增 43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2. Aluminum -美国 5 月 PPI 环比涨幅低于预期，通胀数据低暗示美联储可能尽快恢复降息，压制美元，昨日铝价偏强震荡 [3] -全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能 11082 万吨/年，运行总产能 8901 万吨/年，周度开工率回升 1.57 个百分点至 80.32% [4] -6 月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓，周度开工环比降 0.4 个百分点至 60.9% [4] -6 月 12 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 46.0 万吨，较本周一下降 1.7 万吨，环比上周四降 4.4 万吨 [4] -供应端偏紧，铝厂策略调整致铸锭量降，消费地到货量低造成流通货源紧张，消费端韧性消化供应 [4] -短期低到货量支撑库存去化，关注能否刷新 44 万吨年内低点 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，淡季价格有压力，库存去化支撑价格，短期铝价预计区间偏强震荡 [5]