Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to address the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand in China's economy by expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and stimulating effective investment demand, while also optimizing and expanding effective supply through innovation to achieve structural balance in supply and demand [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth Targets - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 discussed the economic work for 2026, proposing a more proactive macro policy to enhance the forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of policies, aiming to maintain social stability and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the GDP growth target for 2026 will be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, a slight decrease from the 2025 target of around 5.0%, reflecting a focus on high-quality development and maintaining necessary policy space [3][4]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of achieving qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Investment - The article suggests that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 should be raised to 4.5% to 5%, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan, to support an estimated 7.4 trillion yuan in incremental fiscal funding needed for a 5% growth target [7]. - It is proposed that special bonds remain at 1.8 trillion yuan, with local special bond quotas slightly increasing to 5.1 trillion yuan to support infrastructure projects and debt clearance [7][8]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to reflect a "one flat three rises" approach, maintaining the fiscal deficit rate while increasing the scale of special bonds and quasi-fiscal policy tools [8]. Group 3: Economic Environment and Structural Adjustments - The article notes that China has transitioned from an incremental growth phase to one focused on existing stock, necessitating structural adjustments and the enhancement of technological innovation to achieve high-quality growth [3][4]. - The need for significant project investments in the early part of 2026 is emphasized, particularly in light of internal pressures such as aging and external challenges like geopolitical tensions and industrial chain restructuring [6].

据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经济形势作 出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风 险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争， 更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。 中泰证券（600918）研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅告诉记者，"前瞻性"是指，对于经济运行后续可能 面临的问题、暴露的风险，宏观政策会提前谋划、提前应对，尽可能熨平经济运行可能面临的风险隐 患。"针对性"是指，对于重点任务、重点问题、重点风险，宏观政策会采取针对性手段予以处置。"协 同性"是指，政策实施过程中将更加注重形成各个部门、各个层级之间的合力。 对于"继续实施更加积极的财政政策"，粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉记者，这既是延续政策稳定性 的需要，更是当前扩大需求的需要。为进一步扩大内需、提振消费、稳定房地产市场，有必要以更大力 度的财政政策来稳定经济和社会就业，为新旧动能转换赢得更多的时间。 ...

记者丨 唐婧 编辑丨 曾芳 据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经 济形势作出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新 步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经 贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同 性。 会议还指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效， 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适 度宽松的货币政策 ，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应， 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 ，切 实提升宏观经济治理效能。 对于"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策" ， 中信证券首席经济学家明明告诉记者，展望 2026 年，货币政策将在稳增长、防风险的基础上，更加注重稳预期并与积极财政形成合力。考虑到 2025 、年四季度经济内生动能有待加强、2026年上半年面临高基数压力，以及"十五五"开局 对"开门红"的更高要求， 预计货币政策或在2025年底至2026年上半年适度加力，通过总量宽 松降低社会融资成 ...

最新解读。 据新华社，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面 依法治国工作条例》。 对于如何做好明年的经济工作，会议提出一些重要表述，包括"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争""实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续扩大内需、优化供给"等，并提出八项"坚持"的重点工作。多 位受访专家表示，明年经济增长转型诉求不减，政策需要兼顾短期与长远，内需将继续发挥助力经济总 体回升向好的"助推器"作用，并坚持以开放促改革促发展，重点领域风险化解将更加积极稳妥。 延续"更加积极有为"取向 明年加大逆周期与跨周期力度 今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向好。 根据中央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 "继续实施"今年的财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连续性、稳定性，营造出稳定的宏 观政策环境，还意味着明年政策力度依然可期，将坚持支持性的政策立场。 从财政政策看，"更加积极"意味着明年财政 ...

最新解读。 据新华社，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。 对于如何做好明年的经济工作，会议提出一些重要表述，包括"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争""实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续扩大内需、优化供 给"等，并提出八项"坚持"的重点工作。多位受访专家表示，明年经济增长转型诉求不减，政策需要兼顾短期与长远，内需将继续发挥助力经济总体回升向好的"助 推器"作用，并坚持以开放促改革促发展，重点领域风险化解将更加积极稳妥。 延续"更加积极有为"取向 明年加大逆周期与跨周期力度 今年以来，我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向好。根据中央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政 策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 "继续实施"今年的财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连续性、稳定性，营造出稳定的宏观政策环境，还意味着明年政策力度依然可期，将坚持支持 性的政策立场。 从财政政策看，"更加积极"意味着明年财政政策有 ...

Group 1 - The core issue discussed is whether there will be large-scale economic stimulus or incremental policies in 2026, with the overall tone being stable and slightly less aggressive than previous communications [3][4] - The document emphasizes the integration of existing policies with new ones, indicating that the market's focus should not solely be on new policies but also on effectively implementing existing ones [3] - There is a shift in focus from absolute GDP growth to quality and efficiency, suggesting a need for a balanced approach to economic growth rather than just aiming for high growth rates [4] Group 2 - The document highlights the importance of balancing domestic economic work with international trade dynamics, indicating that policies may need to be adjusted based on external factors [4][5] - The absence of specific mentions of the real estate sector in the document suggests a potential shift in focus or priorities regarding this industry [5]

21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 北京报道 据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经济形势作 出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风 险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争， 更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。会议还指出，明 年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存 量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 上述表述与10月28日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称 《建议》）中的表态一脉相承。在"提升宏观经济治理效能"部分，《建议》明确提出，强化逆周期和跨 周期调节，实施更加积极的宏观政策，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。增强宏观政策取向一致性，强化 政策实施效果评价，健全预期管理机制，优化高质量发展综合绩效考核。 对于"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 12 月政治局会议解读 提质增效，内需主导 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 会议： 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共 ...

Policy Trends - Some leading brokerages are expected to benefit from the appropriate easing of capital space and leverage restrictions, which may strengthen the brokerage sector and further boost market sentiment [5][4] - The insurance sector is rebounding due to the adjustment of related business risk factors, with the non-bank sector likely to lead the market sentiment recovery during the year-end period [5][4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has announced adjustments to the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments and overseas investment insurance, aiming to enhance long-term investment management capabilities [4][5] Overseas Macro - The U.S. job market is currently in a state of mild slowdown, with the ADP employment figure for November dropping significantly to -32,000, far below the expected 10,000 [6] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is approximately 87%, as high interest rates are suppressing employment in interest-sensitive sectors [6] Bond Market - After a rapid rise in long-term yields, the 30-10Y government bond yield spread has gradually returned to a historically reasonable range, indicating initial signs of value for allocation after a significant drop [7][15] - The central bank has continued to net withdraw funds, with a total net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan through reverse repos during the first week of December [7][9] Equity Market - The market style continues to favor resource products and AI, with non-bank sectors gaining momentum, particularly in commercial aerospace and robotics, which have strengthened the military and machinery sectors [16][21] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.26% and 1.86%, respectively [16] Investment Strategy - The company is optimistic about technology, brokerages, and consumer sectors as the market approaches the year-end offensive [2][22] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to lead to more proactive economic policies, with a focus on stabilizing the short-term macro economy and further easing monetary policy [22][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral - weak view on the natural rubber industry in the medium - long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of natural rubber is characterized by weak demand and ample supply, with the market expected to remain in a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and light - colored rubber is relatively stronger [1] - In the medium - long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, supply pressure is increasing, and demand requires continuous macro - incentives. Therefore, the industry is viewed as neutral - weak [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The real - world support for natural rubber has slightly weakened, while market expectations remain stable. The market is in an oscillatory pattern with narrowing amplitude under the divergence between bulls and bears [1] - The fundamental contradictions of natural rubber have changed little. The concern about flood - induced production cuts in Thailand has subsided, and downstream demand support has weakened marginally [1] - The inventory of natural rubber, especially in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, continues to accumulate. Tire production, sales, and exports have decreased month - on - month, and downstream inventory pressure has increased [1] - In the long term, fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment continue to decline, domestic demand growth is under pressure, and there are still obstacles to exports, resulting in a weak long - term demand outlook [1] - Weather disturbances in production areas are alternating. Early heavy rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam and floods in southern Thailand disrupted short - term supply, but later rainfall in Thailand is expected to decrease. Cooling in Yunnan will lead to earlier suspension of tapping, tightening supply expectations [1] - After the concentrated cancellation of RU warehouse receipts in November, there are more than 40,000 tons of new rubber warehouse receipts, and the warehousing is still slow, but the overall supply of whole - milk latex is not expected to be in short supply [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has revised the delivery standards for No. 20 rubber, which will introduce alternative delivery products, increasing the expectation of a looser supply of delivery products [1] - The price of synthetic rubber was strong in the early stage, and the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber widened, which may weaken the dragging effect of synthetic rubber [1] - The recent macro - environment has warmed up, with the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut exceeding 85%, and China's monetary policy has been stably continued, reducing liquidity concerns and increasing market risk appetite [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillatory range for RU2605 is 14,900 - 15,500, and for NR2601 is 1,1900 - 12,400 [22] - **Trend Judgment**: Currently, downstream demand is weakening, and upstream supply is neutral. There are still supports and pressures in the range. With limited changes in fundamentals, rubber prices are more affected by sentiment fluctuations and are expected to remain oscillatory [22] - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: The basis of RU is at a high level, with limited room for further increase. The valuation of whole - milk latex is expected to continue the seasonal repair trend [23] - **Unilateral Strategy**: There is a large divergence between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the callback opportunities at the upper and lower limits of the oscillatory range [24] - **Hedging Strategy**: It is expected that the volatility will be large, and unilateral trading can be combined with protective options [24] - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between RU1 and RU5 rose and then fell last week. Currently, the warehouse receipts are low, which is favorable for the positive - spread arbitrage under the long - position of the near - month contract. However, rubber prices are under great pressure, and the spread may be limited during the suspension of tapping in China in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the arbitrage space for spread convergence [25] - **Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider widening the spread between light - and dark - colored rubber at low levels, with the 01 spread combination referring to around 3,000 points. There may still be room to widen the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,600, with a current volatility of 26.95% and a historical percentile of 12.75% in three years. For 20 - gauge rubber NR, the price range is 11,900 - 12,400, with a current volatility of 13.80% and a historical percentile of 68.66% in three years [27] - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory, they can short rubber futures to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options to reduce price - decline risks, and sell call options to increase sales profits [28] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans, they can buy rubber far - month futures to lock in procurement costs, buy out - of - the - money call options to reduce cost - increase risks, and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [28] 3.2 Important Information and Focus of Attention 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [30] - In November 2025, the retail and wholesale volumes of the domestic passenger - car market showed certain growth trends [30] - The ADP employment data in the US was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December by the Fed rose to 86% [30] - The unemployment rate in the eurozone remained stable, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month [31] - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month [31] - In terms of weather, some production areas in Yunnan are gradually suspending tapping, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten due to raw - material competition and concentrated milk diversion. Rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia is increasing [31] - **Negative Information**: - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in November were lower than expected, dragging down the composite PMI [32] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange revised the contract and delivery rules for 20 - gauge rubber futures, adding alternative delivery products [32] - As of November 30, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber increased, with both light - and dark - colored rubber inventories rising [32] - According to the ANRPC report, global natural rubber production is expected to increase slightly in 2025, while demand growth is relatively weak [33] - In October 2025, Indonesia's exports of natural rubber to China decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [34] - The EUDR has been postponed, and the results of the EU's double - anti investigation are still pending [34] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus of Attention - Monitor the weather and tapping progress in Yunnan, the raw - material supply in Hainan, and the rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia [35] - Pay attention to the import and export of dry rubber, social inventory changes, and the repair of whole - milk latex valuation and spot digestion [35] - Keep an eye on downstream tire export data and tire production start - up rates [35] - In the macro - aspect, focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision, other central banks' actions, China's trade balance, CPI, and PPI data [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The main contract of RU has switched to 05. Last week, the 01 contract of rubber weakened, and the main contract rebounded after touching the support at 15,000, maintaining a weak oscillatory pattern. The main contract of NR also oscillated synchronously, and its positions increased [38] - **Capital Movement**: On the disk, short positions in RU continued to increase last week, while short positions in NR decreased gradually [40] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Market**: The prices of most rubber varieties decreased last week, including domestic whole - milk latex, Thai RSS3, and Vietnamese 3L [43] - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Change**: The basis of whole - milk latex is on a regression trend. The valuation of RU relative to other spot products is relatively stable. NR is anchored to Indonesian standard rubber, and the basis of other spot products relative to NR has widened, which may provide some support [46] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, the spot and 01 contracts were firm, and the C - structure became shallower. The structure of NR changed little and shifted downward overall [53] - **External Market**: The prices of Japanese RSS3 and Singapore TSR20 decreased last week. The structure of Japanese RSS3 has changed to a C - structure, and the C - structure of Singapore TSR20 has become slightly shallower [57][59] - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between RU and Japanese RSS3 futures has rebounded, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber has turned negative [61] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Last week, the sentiment in the rubber market rebounded slightly, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was flat with a slight warming. Currently, the number of RU warehouse receipts is low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio is high. Pay attention to the game between bulls and bears. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined [66][67] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry - Rubber Spot Spread**: The spread between light - and dark - colored rubber has widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk latex has continued to repair. The spread between Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber has widened again, and the spread between Thai and Indonesian standard rubber has slightly decreased [68] - **Spread between Natural and Synthetic Rubber**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber is slightly stronger than that of natural rubber. The spread between synthetic and natural rubber has retracted, and there may still be room for it to widen in the future [71] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: The overall raw - material prices are firm, with some prices rising. Cooling in Yunnan has led to earlier suspension of tapping, and rainfall in Thailand has decreased, weakening support [74] - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: The delivery profit of whole - milk latex has oscillated upward, while the profit of TSR9710 has declined slowly [82] - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: Last week, rubber prices oscillated. The profit of Thai smoked sheets has slightly rebounded, the profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased due to price decline, and the profit of Thai mixed rubber has declined [84] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: The natural - rubber production in major producing countries shows seasonal characteristics. In Yunnan, China, tapping is gradually suspending, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten [31] - **Domestic Import Situation**: In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Most major rubber varieties showed a downward trend in imports month - on - month [88] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Tire Production and Sales**: The start - up rate of all - steel tires has increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires has rebounded slightly. Tire exports have decreased significantly month - on - month and weakened year - on - year in October [105] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been performing steadily, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [110] - **Matching Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic automobile sales have continued to improve, but the high inventory of passenger cars may increase the demand pressure on semi - steel tires [118] - **Matching Demand - Heavy Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The production of heavy trucks has maintained high growth, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery has increased. However, the long - term weak fixed - asset investment may limit the growth of new demand for trucks [122] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has been stable overall, and Thailand's tire shipment index has shown year - on - year growth but weakened in the fourth quarter [124] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: The tire imports in the US have increased against the trend, and the production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable [126] - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has increased slightly month - on - month but is lower year - on - year, and the start - up rate of rubber hoses has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [133] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: The number of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has increased slightly this week, and the number of 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts has increased at a slightly faster rate than the seasonal trend [135] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 30, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with the inventory in the free - trade zone and general - trade warehouses rising [137]