产业期现日报 G 55000000 投资次输业务资格·证监控可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月10日 林喜旎 Z0020770 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 电池级碳酸锂均价 | 74600 | 74600 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 工业级碳酸锂均价 | 72350 | 72350 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM电池级氢氧化锂均价 | 75200 | 75350 | -150.0 | -0.20% | 元/吨 | | SMM工业级氢菌化锂均价 | 70160 | 70310 | -150.0 | -0.21% | 元/吨 | | 中日韩CIF电池级碳酸锂 | 9.45 | 9.45 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/千克 | | 中日韩CIF电池级氢氧化锂 | 9.30 | 9.30 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/千克 | | SMM电碳-工碳价差 | 2250 | 2250 | 0.00 | 0.00% ...

Group 1 - In August, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, the first such narrowing since March of this year [1][2] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to the implementation of more proactive macro policies and improvements in certain industry prices, as well as the ongoing construction of a unified national market [1] - Key industries such as coal processing, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing saw their year-on-year price declines narrow significantly, contributing to a reduction in the overall PPI decline by approximately 0.50 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Month-on-month, the PPI in August ended a consecutive eight-month decline, remaining flat after a 0.2% decrease in the previous month, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in some energy and raw material sectors [2] - Specific price changes in August included a 9.7% increase in coal processing prices, a 2.8% increase in coal mining and washing prices, and a 1.9% increase in black metal smelting and rolling prices, reversing previous declines [2]

Group 1 - The overall profit of A-shares in the first half of 2025 increased by 2.44% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed down compared to the first quarter [2][9][10] - The net profit of non-financial A-shares rose by 1.03% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points from the first quarter [9][10] - The net profit of the non-financial and non-oil and gas A-shares increased by 4.82% year-on-year, with a decrease of 3.08 percentage points from the first quarter [9][10] Group 2 - The total revenue of all A-shares increased by 0.03% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after a year of decline [15][19] - The revenue growth rates for the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board were 7.04% and 4.81% respectively, while the North Stock A-share saw a growth of 5.66% [18][19] - The main board's revenue growth rate decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, but improved by 0.25 percentage points from the first quarter [19] Group 3 - The overall gross profit margin for A-shares was 17.84%, a slight increase from the first quarter [22][24] - The gross profit margins for the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board were 23.25% and 28.98% respectively, with the latter maintaining a high level [24][25] - The gross profit margin for the main board decreased by 0.03 percentage points compared to the first quarter [24] Group 4 - Major expenses for non-financial enterprises saw a year-on-year decline, with sales expenses down by 2.29% and financial expenses down by 15.38% [29][30] - The revenue and cost growth rates for non-financial enterprises were -0.18% and -0.17% respectively, indicating a narrowing decline [29][30] - The overall economic environment is expected to improve, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment [30] Group 5 - The return on equity (ROE) for all A-shares remained stable at 7.73%, with slight variations across different sectors [33][34] - The sales net profit margin for all A-shares increased slightly to 7.87% [33][34] - The total asset turnover ratio for all A-shares improved, indicating better efficiency in asset utilization [33][34] Group 6 - In the upstream sector, the performance of the coal industry was weak, with revenue and net profit declining significantly [41][42] - The agricultural sector showed signs of recovery, with a revenue increase of 8.95% and a notable rise in net profit [42] - The machinery equipment sector experienced steady growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 7.26% and 18.08% respectively [44] Group 7 - The real estate sector continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.92% [46] - The consumer sector showed overall performance slowdown, with the automotive sector's revenue growth rate decreasing significantly [47] - The TMT sector exhibited mixed results, with the electronic sector showing strong growth while the media sector experienced a decline [48] Group 8 - The banking sector's net profit growth turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.77% [49] - Non-bank financial institutions continued to perform well, with a net profit increase of 18.36% [49] - Other sectors such as transportation and defense showed improvement, while environmental and public utility sectors faced challenges [50]

Group 1: Macro News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry 2025-2026," which includes 16 specific measures aimed at promoting industrial upgrades, enhancing the high-quality supply system, and fostering economic circulation [1] - The plan focuses on three main areas: promoting industrial upgrades, deepening the construction of a high-quality supply system, and driving the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Development - The National Energy Administration is actively researching policy measures to promote the development of deep-sea offshore wind power and solar thermal power, emphasizing the acceleration of new models and new business formats in renewable energy [2] - The administration aims to leverage a series of supportive policies to facilitate the growth of emerging industries in the renewable energy sector [2] Group 3: Local Government Debt - In August, local government bond issuance reached 977.6 billion yuan, exceeding the previously announced issuance plan of 940.8 billion yuan [5] - Five provinces (municipalities) issued over 50 billion yuan in bonds, with Anhui leading at 92.7 billion yuan, followed by Guangdong at 92.1 billion yuan and Zhejiang at 76.0 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the joint working group between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of coordinating fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery and stability in the current complex market environment [1][5]. Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - The meeting acknowledged the achievements made since the establishment of the joint working group last year, particularly in the areas of financial market operations and government bond issuance management [1]. - Discussions included the operation of the bond market, central bank's bond trading operations, and the improvement of offshore RMB bond issuance mechanisms [1][5]. - Both parties agreed that the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for ensuring effective implementation and achieving desired economic outcomes [1]. Group 2: Future Directions - The next steps involve continuing to leverage the joint working group mechanism to deepen cooperation and enhance coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China [1]. - There is a focus on promoting the stable and healthy development of the bond market while ensuring that fiscal and monetary policies are effectively executed [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macro aspect: Fed's dovish stance boosts copper price, but concerns about "stagflation" limit upside. Future rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamental aspect: It shows "weak reality + stable expectation". Demand may weaken marginally, but supply elasticity is low. With improved rate - cut expectation and domestic stimulus, copper price may at least maintain a range - bound movement and enter an upward cycle when commodity and financial attributes resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 78,500 - 81,000 [1]. Zinc - Supply: Overseas mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption. High TC encourages smelters, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. - Demand: Entering the peak season, spot trading has improved. The decline in the operating rates of primary processing industries is limited. - Outlook: Supply is expected to be loose, and the price may range - bound. Upward rebound needs better demand or non - recession rate - cut expectation, while downward breakthrough requires stronger TC or continuous inventory build - up. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum Alumina - Market situation: It presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply is under pressure from new capacity, while demand growth from electrolytic aluminum is limited. - Outlook: The price is approaching the cost range, with limited downside. Upside needs supply disruptions from Guinea or sentiment catalysts. The reference range for the main contract is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum - Macro and fundamental: Fed's rate - cut expectation and improved fundamentals support the price, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. - Outlook: It is expected to range - bound between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve, the price may fall. Tracking inventory and policy implementation is necessary [7]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply: Seasonal demand weakness and import restrictions tighten the supply of scrap aluminum, supporting costs. Tax policy adjustments lead to production cuts in some regions. - Demand: Terminal consumption is weak, but there are signs of improvement in some die - casting orders. - Outlook: If imports are limited, the spot price may remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum may narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. Domestic tin ore imports are at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be delayed to the fourth quarter. - Demand: Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors has declined. - Outlook: With positive policy expectations, the price is in a strong - side range - bound movement. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it may remain high - side range - bound. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 [10]. Nickel - Macro: US easing expectation and positive domestic policy expectation. - Industry: Nickel price is stable, nickel ore price is firm, and nickel - iron price is strong. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. - Outlook: The price decline is limited by cost, and the price may range - bound. The reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Macro: Fed's rate - cut expectation and positive domestic policies ease export pressure and improve demand expectation. - Industry: Raw material prices are firm, nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, and there are supply - side disturbances in ferrochrome. Production may increase, but demand is still weak. - Outlook: Cost support is strong, but demand restricts the price. The price may range - bound, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures market continued to fall. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state, with supply contraction and stable demand. - Outlook: After the price center moves down, it may range - bound widely. The reference range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,160 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 220 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,150 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [4]. - The premium in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [7]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium rose to - 20 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM Southwest ADC12 price rose to 20,800 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price rose to 273,500 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium rose to 650 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 124,050 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [11]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium dropped to 2,100 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price rose to 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 77,500 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 75,200 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [14]. Month - to - Month Spreads Copper - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to 20 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to 15 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - 2511 - 2512 spread rose to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to - 320 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 200 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 70 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - 2509 - 2511 spread rose to - 20 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data Copper - August electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% [1]. Zinc - August refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% [4]. - July refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% [4]. Aluminum - August alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% [7]. - August electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [7]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% [8]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% [8]. Tin - July tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% [10]. - SMM refined tin production in July was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% [10]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production was 37,800 tons, up 1.26% [11]. - Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, down 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% [13]. - Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 36.00 million tons, unchanged [13]. Lithium Carbonate - August lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% [14]. - August lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Real Trading Competition are entering the final month, with participants engaged in intense competition [1] - The overall market has shown a strong stock index and significant structural differentiation in commodity markets, influenced by macro policies, external environments, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - In April, the "tariff shock and market adjustment phase" saw U.S. tariffs on China causing market volatility, leading to short-term pressure on stock indices and declines in energy and some export-dependent commodities, while agricultural products like soybean meal surged due to supply concerns [1] - The "policy game and structural differentiation phase" from May to June indicated a recovery in domestic economic data and policy expectations supporting a rebound in stock indices, while commodity markets returned to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [1] - The "expectation reshaping and style rebalancing phase" in July and August revealed a "de-involution" trend in domestic commodity markets, with gold prices reflecting a redefinition by global investors [1] Participant Insights - As the competition nears its end, many varieties are experiencing a volatile trading environment, making it challenging for participants to navigate [2] - Key factors for participants to monitor include the sustainability of domestic policy effects, the performance of traditional peak seasons like "Golden September and Silver October," and the clarity of overseas policy environments, particularly regarding U.S. interest rate changes and U.S.-China trade relations [2] Competition Statistics - As of September 1, the global competition had 528 accounts with total participation funds of $43.9 million [3] - The "Futures Star Competition" and various awards have seen significant participation, with notable rankings in different categories, indicating a robust engagement in the trading community [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term price fluctuations of finished products are large, and they operate in a volatile and weak manner. The price is mainly affected by fundamentals. Although supply has decreased due to pre - parade production restrictions, it is likely to resume after the parade, while downstream demand is unlikely to change substantially in the short term. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points from the Report Steel Production and Supply - As of September 1, 23 sample steel enterprises with 89 blast furnaces in Tangshan have carried out blast furnace shutdown and maintenance as planned. There are 16 newly - added blast furnaces for maintenance, and the rest are mainly for rotational maintenance and production reduction. The theoretical daily impact on hot metal output is about 122,300 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate is 74.62%, down 14.21% from August 27 and 10.35% from the same period last year. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. [2] - On September 3, production restrictions were implemented in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before the parade, leading to a decline in supply. However, supply is likely to resume after the parade according to market research. [2] Market and Policy - The Shanghai mortgage policy was implemented on September 1. The minimum interest rate for new first - home mortgages is 3.05%, and the minimum interest rate for new second - home mortgages is 3.09%. Second - home mortgage loans with an existing interest rate higher than 3.36% can be lowered to 3.36%. [2] Market Sales - In August, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight 1% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. It is almost certain that the annual sales will exceed 1 million. [2] Product Price - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday, with the rebar 2601 contract once falling below 3,100 and the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract falling below 3,300. [2] 4. Later Concerns - Macro - policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market has ample liquidity, and stock index is expected to rise further. The economic situation shows certain resilience, with both supply and demand indicators in the manufacturing sector improving, but the supply-demand gap is widening. Macro policies are generally favorable, including real estate policy relaxation and potential monetary policy adjustments. Overseas factors, such as Trump's actions regarding the Fed, also have a certain impact on the market [3]. - Investment strategy suggests taking a long position during market adjustments, with a preference for IF or IH contracts to reduce position volatility and risk [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: The August 2025 manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 49.4%, with both supply and demand indicators rising, indicating economic resilience. However, the supply-demand gap widened to 1.3 percentage points, and price indices have been rising for three consecutive months [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Shanghai relaxed real estate policies, adjusting housing purchase restrictions,公积金, and credit policies, which is expected to boost the real estate market [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: Trump removed Fed Governor Cook from office, and Cook sued Trump, which may affect the Fed's policy direction [3]. - **Liquidity**: As of August 28, the A-share margin trading balance increased, and the financing purchase amount accounted for 12.7% of the total market turnover, at the 99.5% percentile in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 3202.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market has ample liquidity, and the macro news is generally positive. The strategy is to go long during market adjustments, with a preference for IF or IH contracts [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 2.71% to 4496.8, the SSE 50 rose 1.63% to 2976.5, the CSI 500 rose 3.24% to 7043.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03% to 7438.7 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (12.4%), non - ferrous metals (7.2%), electronics (6.3%), comprehensive (5.9%), and power equipment (4%) led the gains, while textile and apparel (-2.9%), banking (-2.1%), transportation (-1.5%), light manufacturing (-1.3%), and building decoration (-0.9%) led the losses [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 36.32%, and the open interest increased by 5.85%. The trading volume of SSE 50 futures increased by 17.14%, and the open interest decreased by 4.83%. The trading volume of CSI 500 futures increased by 32.89%, and the open interest increased by 6.35%. The trading volume of CSI 1000 futures increased by 14.61%, and the open interest decreased by 0.77% [11]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of August 29, the annualized premium of the current - month contract IF2509 was 3.65%, and the annualized discount of IC2509 was 11.63% [15]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 94% historical percentile, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 59.9% historical percentile [19]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2273.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 403.9 billion yuan. Next week, 2273.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases will mature [27]. - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: As of August 28, the A - share margin trading balance was 2236.54 billion yuan, an increase of 88.81 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing purchase amount accounted for 12.7% of the total market turnover, at the 99.5% percentile in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 3202.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [34]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macro Indicators**: In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%. Supply and demand indicators in the manufacturing sector improved, but the supply - demand gap widened [38][52]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai relaxed real estate policies, which may stimulate the real estate market [3]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate of consumer goods retail sales in July 2025 was 3.7%, and different consumer sectors showed varying degrees of growth [48]. - **Manufacturing**: The growth rate of manufacturing investment in July 2025 was 6.2%, and different manufacturing sub - sectors had different performance [49]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The growth rate of infrastructure investment in July 2025 was 7.3%, and different infrastructure sub - sectors had different growth rates [50]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The performance of different broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices in terms of net profit growth and ROE varied [57][58]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Macro Policy Trends**: Many important meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Urban Work Conference, the Politburo Meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference, which have deployed economic work for the second half of the year and introduced policies to support consumption, investment, and the real economy [62][64]. - **Policy Expectations**: The government will continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and may introduce more policies to support the economy and the capital market [65]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In July 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 48%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 73,000. The PCE and CPI showed a slight increase [70][72][77]. - **Trump's Actions**: Trump has implemented a series of tariff policies, which have led to trade frictions between the US and other countries, especially China [79][81].