截至2025年12月1日 14:45，中证A500ETF(560510)上涨1.07%，成交6882.01万元。跟踪指数中证A500指 数(000510)强势上涨1.06%，成分股北京君正(300223)上涨16.66%，和邦生物(603077)上涨10.05%，光启 技术(002625)上涨10.01%，中兴通讯(000063)，杰瑞股份(002353)等个股跟涨。 中证A500ETF(560510)，场外联接(泰康中证A500ETF联接A：022426；泰康中证A500ETF联接C： 022427；泰康中证A500ETF联接Y：022942) 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 华金证券分析指出，今年12月A股可能震荡偏强，慢牛趋势不变。（1）12月政策和外部事件可能偏积 极。一是12月积极的政策可能进一步出台和落实：首先，12月召开的中央经济工作会议上大概率将继续 聚焦稳增长；其次，年底保增长政策可能进一步出台和实施。二是12月外部风险可能有限，外部环境可 能偏积极。（2）12月流动性可能进一步宽松。一是12月宏观流动性可能进一步宽松：首先，美联储12 月大概率降息； ...

1日早盘，三大股指全线走高，北证50指数较为强势。截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.42%报3904.9点，深证成 指、创业板指涨近1%，北证50指数大涨约2%。 盘面上看，有色、汽车、半导体等板块拉升，消费电子、商业航天、稀土、黄金概念等活跃。 广发证券表示，每年11月，市场涨跌与基本面相关性最弱，但进入12月，基本面定价的有效性会逐步加 强。"赚钱效应"最好的时间窗，即将打开。每年春季有两个重要时间点：春节、两会。在这期间（春节 到两会），市场有很好的"赚钱效应" ，也就是 "春季躁动"窗口期，平均持续约20个交易日。春节前 后，市场从低胜率转向高胜率，从大盘风格转向小盘风格。 12月到明年1月是春季躁动布局的很好时机，尤其是针对那些年报预告不太会爆雷且明年景气度趋势不 错的方向（年报预告不好的方向，可能最好等到明年1月末布局）。同时考虑截至上周五市场最低点， 很多板块调整幅度已经达到历史上主线品种的平均水平（20%左右），12月可以逐步纳入观察范围。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations primarily influenced by overseas factors, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December due to dovish statements from multiple officials [3][8] - Improved Sino-U.S. relations are noted, with discussions on trade and economic cooperation, which may enhance global risk appetite [3][8] - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial effects, but profit growth has slowed down, indicating a need for continued monitoring of domestic demand policies [11][13] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with significant increases in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (1.40%) and the ChiNext Index (4.54%) [7][8] - The market's trading volume has decreased to 1.6 trillion, reflecting lower investor participation [3][8] - The overall P/E ratio of A-shares stands at 21.74, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [7] Policy and Economic Outlook - The upcoming December political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference are expected to clarify policy directions for the coming year, potentially supporting market sentiment [5][16] - The "spring market" phenomenon is anticipated post-Spring Festival, with a generally optimistic market atmosphere and significant profit potential across various sectors [6][16] - The manufacturing sector is showing positive trends, particularly in high-tech industries, while traditional industries are also benefiting from upgrades [11][13] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus is advised on dividend-paying sectors and technology stocks, as they may present good investment opportunities [5][6] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted for its growth potential, driven by satellite launch progress and favorable policies [6][8]

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 01 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：价格回升较产量明显 11 月制造业 PMI 较 10 月的 49%回升至 49.2%（彭博一致预期 49.2%），较 往年季节性水平偏低；非制造业商务活动指数较 10 月的 50.1%回落至 49.5%（彭博一致预期 50%）。11 月制造业 PMI 供需两端分项指标均边际改 善、价格指标亦有所修复——具体看，PMI 分项中生产、采购量较 10 月的 49.7%/49.0%上升至 50.0%/49.5%；新订单、新出口订单、就业人员 PMI 亦 较 10 月回升 0.4/1.7/0.1 个百分点至 49.2%/47.6%/48.4%。此外，商品价格 指数整体回升，购进价格及出厂价格分别较 10 月上行 1.1/0.7 个百分点至 53.6%/48.2%。行业中，高新技术制造业连续 10 个月位于扩张区间，而装 备 制 造 业 / 消 费 品 行 业 PMI 较 10 月 的 50.2%/50.1% 分别回落至 49.8%/49.4% ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened collectively higher on December 1, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.26%. The precious metals and film and media sectors led the gains [1] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities suggests positioning in high-probability directions during the "spring excitement," as the market sentiment has improved with the rebound in A-shares and expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. They recommend a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors, focusing on aviation equipment, AI-related energy storage, and power equipment, as well as chemicals and energy metals. Additionally, large financials and high-value consumer sectors like liquor and consumer building materials remain key mid-term investment choices [2] - CICC indicates that the current risk of overcrowding in the AI sector is relatively low, with long-term opportunities still present. The overcrowding level in the AI sector has decreased since the peak at the end of September, suggesting ongoing investment value. However, the current market style rotation favors value stocks in the short term, as institutional investors may adopt defensive strategies due to reduced risk appetite towards year-end [3] - CITIC Securities highlights significant opportunities in AI optical interconnection, driven by the rapid development of AI models and applications, which rely on continuous investment in computing infrastructure. They emphasize that high-performance, high-bandwidth, and low-latency networks are crucial for enhancing computing cluster performance. The advantages of leading firms are becoming more pronounced due to increasing demands for R&D capabilities, production capacity, and new technology deployment. CITIC Securities is optimistic about the growth potential of domestic optical communication leaders [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, driven by improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, and policy catalysts, leading to a potential early start of the spring rally [1][9][11]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most brokerages anticipate that December will see a recovery in fundamental expectations and macro liquidity, with policy and industry themes catalyzing market movements [1][7]. - The market has been in a three-month consolidation phase, and the likelihood of an upward breakout to initiate a year-end rally is high [1][9]. - Investors maintain confidence in the medium to long-term market outlook, suggesting that the current bull market is not over [11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to prepare for the year-end rally, with a focus on strategic positioning around key events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference [2][8]. - Emphasis on large-cap stocks with stable earnings is expected to outperform in December, while a balanced allocation between growth and value styles is recommended [12]. - Key sectors to watch include traditional manufacturing, resource revaluation, and companies with overseas expansion potential [4][8]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The technology sector is anticipated to rebound, particularly in areas with favorable cost-performance ratios, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and defense industries [6][7]. - The cyclical sectors, including basic chemicals and industrial technology, are expected to be foundational assets for the spring rally [5][6]. - Consumer sectors, particularly high-quality consumption like liquor and consumer building materials, are seen as mid-term investment opportunities [7][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year will provide new momentum for gold prices to rise, driven by declining nominal and real interest rates due to falling inflation and a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities suggests a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors in anticipation of a spring market rally, driven by improved macro liquidity, policy catalysts, and the digestion of market pressures [2] - The report highlights specific sectors to focus on, including aviation equipment and AI-related energy storage, as well as chemicals and energy metals for cyclical investments [2] - Additionally, large financials and high-value consumer sectors, such as liquor and consumer building materials, are recommended as foundational choices for mid-term asset revaluation in China [2] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the antimony smelting market may still experience a wave of price increases due to tightening supply from ongoing order deliveries, despite a potential slight price correction in December [3] - The report anticipates that demand for inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival may lead to further price increases in the market [3]

2. 广发证券：2026年A股春季躁动值得期待 对机构"最不利"的阶段，即将过去。每年11月，市场涨跌与基本面相关性最弱。但进入12月，基本面定 价的有效性会逐步加强。"赚钱效应"最好的时间窗，即将打开。每年春季有两个重要时间点：春节、两 会。在这期间，市场有很好的"赚钱效应"，也就是"春季躁动"窗口期，平均持续约20个交易日。春节前 后，市场从低胜率转向高胜率；大盘风格转向小盘风格。 12月到1月是春季躁动布局的很好时机，尤其是针对那些年报预告不太会暴雷且明年景气度趋势不错的 方向。同时考虑截至上周五市场最低点，很多板块调整幅度已经达到历史上主线品种的平均水平，12月 可以逐步纳入观察范围。 3. 光大证券：市场仍处牛市，但短期或宽幅震荡 与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持 续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为 上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。配置方面，短期关注防御及消费板块，中期继续关注 TMT和先进制造板块。 上周A股市场呈现震荡向上行情，主要宽基指数录得上涨，全A指数上涨2.90% ...

上周A股主要指数悉数反弹，市场热点集中于TMT主线。展望后市，多家券商认为，A股跨年行情已经 具备良好基础，12月是布局"春季躁动"的好时机。 华西证券认为，A股市场将步入国内外重要政策观察窗口，市场风险偏好或逐渐抬升，跨年行情迎来布 局期。海外方面，美联储降息概率较大，美元流动性担忧缓解和人民币汇率偏强运行，有利于外资增配 中国资产。国内方面，2026年经济发展目标和宏观政策基调有望明确，"反内卷"、提振消费、新质生产 力等主线有望持续受益于政策催化。 兴业证券认为，前期扰动市场的各类因素，近期已在逐步缓解。首先，海外扰动因素进一步缓和，美联 储表态与经济数据共同推升降息预期，推动全球风险资产共振修复。国内环境则继续为中国资产修复提 供顺风，尤其是近期人民币对美元汇率加速升值破7.08关口，汇率走强与资本市场修复形成共振。往后 看，A股跨年行情已经具备良好基础，建议投资者保持多头思维，继续布局中国资产的修复。 东方财富证券表示，短期建议投资者关注具备充分想象空间的主题投资机会。从过去5年的跨年行情 看，政策因子是比较核心的驱动因素。跨年行情的启动时点呈现显著的"弱势行情前置启动"特征。演绎 节奏方面，跨年行 ...

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical layout window at year-end, with a focus on cross-year trends and spring market movements, while domestic demand breakthroughs are key to unlocking potential [1][2][3] - The current market exhibits characteristics of low volatility and slow growth, with a shift in funding structure reshaping pricing logic [3][4] - Investment strategies are recommended to align with industry trends and policy expectations, particularly in sectors like AI, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4][5][6] Group 2 - The central economic work conference is expected to align with market expectations, while the Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a hawkish stance on interest rates [5][6][7] - The market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation, awaiting new opportunities, with a focus on the upcoming central economic work conference for policy direction [6][7][8] - Key sectors to watch include AI, energy storage, innovative pharmaceuticals, and traditional manufacturing, with a particular emphasis on resource revaluation [4][8][9] Group 3 - The AI industry chain remains a core investment focus, with opportunities arising from adjustments in the sector [9][10] - Areas experiencing supply-demand improvements, such as storage and energy storage chains, are also highlighted for potential growth [9][10][11] - The market is characterized by frequent style switches, with a shift from high-valuation growth stocks to undervalued cyclical stocks and dividend assets [11][12][13] Group 4 - The upcoming central economic work conference is crucial for determining the policy direction for 2026, with expectations for a focus on technology innovation and domestic demand expansion [11][12][13] - The market is likely to experience a spring rally, driven by macroeconomic data and liquidity conditions, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support [38][39][40] - The spring market dynamics are expected to favor small-cap and technology growth stocks as the year progresses [38][39][40]