Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Interest Rate Bonds**: From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank funds and exchange funds rose. The primary market of interest rate bonds had a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, and the term spreads widened [1][15][33]. - **Credit Bonds**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of - 247.824 billion yuan. The yields of credit bonds, including urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes, increased overall. One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during the week [2][58][60]. - **Major Asset Weekly Observation**: During July 18 - July 25, 2025, most European and American stock indexes rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds were differentiated. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies strengthened. Crude oil and gold prices declined [3][62][72]. 3. Investment Recommendations The July Politburo meeting is expected to focus on the dual main lines of "stable growth" and "structural adjustment": - **Stable Growth and Domestic Demand Expansion**: The economic growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, providing room for the annual target of 5%. In the second half, the pressure of stable growth is relatively controllable. The key is to give full play to the effectiveness of existing policies and appropriately introduce incremental policies [4][76]. - **Structural Adjustment**: Measures such as rectifying local protectionism and improving the market access and exit mechanism are expected to be detailed. The ten - industry stable growth plans announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to be implemented intensively [4][77]. - **Real Estate Market**: Multi - dimensional measures may be taken on both the supply and demand sides. The supply side will clarify the standards for "good houses", and the demand side may relax the purchase threshold [77]. - **Capital Market**: Long - term funds are encouraged to enter the market. The delisting system of listed companies will be improved, and supervision will be strengthened [78]. - **Livelihood Field**: Stable employment is the core. New employment opportunities will be created through "two new and two important" projects [79]. - **Stabilizing Foreign Investment and Expanding Opening - up**: Policies will focus on stabilizing foreign investment and expanding opening - up in parallel to cope with the pressure of tariff reconstruction [79]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Layout**: The meeting may announce the time of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and review the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, with new productive forces as the strategic focus [79]. Investors should pay attention to the main lines of consumer service, new impetus for infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and capital market reform, and be vigilant against external tariff shocks. For the bond market, it is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy, adjust the duration flexibly, and seize trading opportunities [4][80]. 4. Summary by Relevant Directory 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Liquidity Observation**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank and exchange funds rose. For example, DR001 rose 6.08BP to 1.5174%, and GC001 rose 3.00BP to 1.4130% [15][19][21]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the primary market of interest rate bonds issued 939.805 billion yuan, with a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased [27]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 31.62BP to 34.89BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 23.82BP to 28.57BP [33][34]. 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, 956 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 1207.483 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 133.033 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest proportion of issuance volume, and AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.67% of the total issuance scale. The issuance was mainly short - term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][50]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes increased overall. The 3 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest increase of 12.27BP, and the 10 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increase of 11.99BP [58]. - **One - Week Credit Default Event Review**: One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during July 21 - July 27, 2025 [60]. 4.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation - **Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.02%. Among European stock indexes, the German DAX Index fell 0.30%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.15%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 1.43% [3][62][63]. - **Differentiated Yields of US Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year US Treasury bonds rose, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by - 5.00BP to 31.00BP [65]. - **Weakening US Dollar Index and Strengthening Non - US Currencies**: The US dollar index fell 0.80%. The pound sterling, euro, and Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar [70]. - **Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices**: The prices of COMEX gold futures and London spot gold fell. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also declined [72].

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, GDP growth reached 5.3%, exceeding the annual target of 5%[4] - Retail sales growth was recorded at 5%, indicating a stable economic performance[4] Economic Challenges - Consumer demand remains weak, with real estate sales experiencing a decline in both volume and price[5] - External uncertainties have increased, leading to a marginal decline in exports[5] Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policy will continue to focus on "dual easing," with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies[2] - Structural monetary policies are expected to be the main tool for ensuring market liquidity in the second half of the year[5] Key Signals for Economic Development - The meeting highlighted six key signals, with a focus on the shift from goods consumption to service consumption and the deep integration of technology and industry[2] - The importance of service consumption is emphasized, with initiatives to stimulate demand in sectors like culture and tourism[6] Sector Focus - Investment recommendations include technology (computers, chips) and service-oriented consumption (cultural tourism, entertainment) as primary focus areas[2] - The infrastructure sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the acceleration of special government bonds[6] Financial Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to remain stable, with continued support for the financial sector under a loose liquidity environment[7] - Recommendations include focusing on brokerage and insurance sectors as potential investment opportunities[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a three-dimensional policy system focusing on short-term stability, medium-term structural adjustment, and long-term breakthroughs, particularly in the context of the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][18] - The report highlights the collaborative approach of fiscal and monetary policies, aiming to create a synergistic effect that enhances economic stability and supports domestic demand [10][18] - The governance of "involution" and optimization of production capacity is underscored, with a focus on regulating disorderly competition and promoting the exit of excess capacity in key industries [11][18] Group 2 - The report suggests monitoring export-oriented industries that may benefit from the reduction of tariffs by the U.S., particularly those with high export ratios such as home appliances and consumer electronics [21] - It identifies high-growth sectors that could thrive under precise policy support and global technological resonance, including domestic computing power and defense industries [21] - The report points to thematic opportunities arising from the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating potential investment avenues aligned with national strategic goals [21]

Group 1 - The report indicates that from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first half of 2025, China's GDP growth is expected to rebound significantly, driven by government spending expansion, stabilization in real estate sales, and a temporary boost from export demand [2][4][5] - The GDP growth forecast for the second half of 2025 is projected to slow down due to weakening export demand and rising tariff impacts, with GDP growth expected at 4.7% and 4.3% for the third and fourth quarters respectively, leading to an annual growth of 4.9% [2][8][9] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's contribution to GDP is declining, with its share dropping from 13-14% in 2022 to 9-10% in 2024, while the digital economy is growing but still needs to increase its share in the overall economy [4][5][7] Group 2 - The report notes that infrastructure investment and equipment investment are expected to maintain strong growth rates of 9.2% and 15.7% respectively in 2024, with further growth projected in the first half of 2025 [5][9] - The export environment is anticipated to face challenges, with a significant drop in exports to the US due to increased tariffs, which are expected to remain around 44.5% [33][34][38] - The report emphasizes the need for a balance between stabilizing growth and controlling inflation, particularly as the real estate sector continues to contract, impacting overall economic performance [7][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant increase in foreign investment in research and development (R&D) in China, with R&D expenditure growing over 86% and the number of effective invention patents increasing by 336% over the past decade [1] - Foreign-funded enterprises in China are seen as crucial to the country's technological innovation system, attracting high-end talent and advanced technologies, which contribute to economic restructuring and industrial upgrading [1][2] - The report highlights that foreign enterprises are increasingly integrating into China's economic system, benefiting from the country's large consumer market and complete manufacturing supply chain [2][3] Group 2 - The Chinese economy is undergoing a transformation focused on quality over quantity, with foreign investment in high-end services and manufacturing continuing to grow despite global economic challenges [3] - Specific sectors such as e-commerce services, aerospace manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals have seen substantial foreign investment growth, indicating the increasing importance of the Chinese market [3] - The shift of foreign enterprises from market-driven to innovation-driven models in China enhances their competitiveness in both domestic and global markets [3][4]

Company Performance - Feilong Co. reported a 14.49% increase in net profit to 210 million yuan for the first half of 2025, despite an 8.67% decline in revenue to 2.162 billion yuan [1] - Jiangling Motors disclosed a net profit of 73.3 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18.17% year-on-year decrease, with revenue slightly increasing by 0.96% to 18.092 billion yuan [31] Mergers and Acquisitions - GoerTek announced a preliminary agreement to acquire 100% equity of Mega Precision Technology Limited and Channel Well Industrial Limited for approximately 10.4 billion HKD (around 9.5 billion yuan) [2][5] - China Nuclear Power plans to invest 1 billion yuan in China Fusion Energy Co., aiming to strategically enter the nuclear fusion energy sector [28] Industry Developments - SenseTime is preparing to enter the embodied intelligence sector, with a core team already formed and plans to launch an embodied intelligence platform at the upcoming WAIC 2025 [4][6] - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission released an action plan for the next-generation display industry, focusing on developing smart glasses production capabilities [15] Financial Trends - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds increased by 10.1 billion USD in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [8] - The balance of real estate loans reached 53.33 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [10] Corporate Governance - Northern Long Dragon terminated its acquisition of Henan Zhongsheng due to changes in market conditions and financial compliance issues [18] - Guolian Aviation's chairman is under investigation, but the company assures that operations remain normal [25]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's infrastructure sector is entering a "DeepSeek moment," driven by both policy support and market demand, as the country shifts towards a more robust internal demand model amidst global economic uncertainties [2][7]. - Key infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project and the Hainan Free Trade Port construction, are highlighted as significant drivers of investment and economic growth [3][4]. Infrastructure Sector Developments - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is noted as a strategic mega-project that will enhance China's clean energy supply and stimulate investment across various industries, including explosives, engineering machinery, and power equipment [3]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port is recognized as a model for regional development and infrastructure upgrades, attracting significant capital and talent, with a focus on enhancing infrastructure in tourism and high-tech industries [3]. - Urban renewal initiatives are shifting from expansion to quality improvement, focusing on optimizing existing urban spaces, which will drive growth in construction materials, smart devices, and related sectors [4]. Economic Transition and Internal Demand - The report discusses the shift in China's economic model from reliance on exports to leveraging internal demand, with infrastructure investment playing a crucial role in this transition [5][6]. - The construction of a unified national market is expected to facilitate the efficient flow of resources, with infrastructure investment serving as a key platform for this development [6]. - The infrastructure sector is characterized by high dividend yields and strong policy support, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the current low-interest-rate environment [6][7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the infrastructure sector that exhibit high dividend yields, strong policy protection, and technological advantages [11]. - Companies involved in urban renewal and those in the renewable energy and environmental protection sectors are identified as key areas for investment, given the increasing emphasis on sustainable development [11]. - Enterprises that can facilitate the flow of resources within the newly constructed national market are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this economic shift [11].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic policy in China has effectively supported stable economic growth despite external uncertainties [1][2] - Fiscal revenue has shown a narrowing decline in tax revenue, while non-tax revenue has decreased, indicating a more rational fiscal structure [1] - National general public budget expenditure has maintained rapid growth, focusing on improving people's livelihoods and investing in technology and green sectors [1] Group 2 - Demand-side investments have improved, with significant growth in major project investments, up 6.5% year-on-year in the first five months [2] - Local government debt risks have been significantly mitigated, with hidden debt expected to drop from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [2] - Personal income tax revenue increased by 8.2% and value-added tax revenue by 2.4% in the first five months, reflecting rising household incomes [2] Group 3 - Technological innovation has been a key driver of development, with significant tax revenue growth in sectors like equipment manufacturing and information technology [3] - The capital market has shown increased activity, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 52.4% year-on-year [3] - Long-term policy effects need to address challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and competitive pressures [3] Group 4 - Emphasis on combining investments in physical and human capital to enhance overall economic resilience [4] - A focus on improving investment efficiency and encouraging private investment to support industrial transformation [4] - The need for a dynamic balance between supply and demand to enhance the quality and allocation of production factors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the understanding of Supply-Side Reform 3.0, emphasizing its integration with domestic demand expansion and the differences from previous reforms in 2015 and 2016 [2][3][5]. Top-Level Design - The core deployment of the current economic strategy is to combine the implementation of the domestic demand expansion strategy with deepening supply-side structural reforms [3]. - A new framework called "BBT" has been introduced, focusing on three aspects: supplementing shortages, transformation, and improvement [3][4]. - Industries are categorized based on supply-demand matching: supplementing shortages, improving efficiency, and transformation for future needs [4]. Historical Comparison - The external environment differs significantly from 2015-2016, with higher contributions from exports and greater external pressures [6]. - The current reform focuses on midstream manufacturing with a more complex range of industries compared to the previous focus on state-owned enterprises and fewer product categories [6]. - The goals of the current reform emphasize long-term industrial upgrading rather than immediate economic recovery [6]. - The methods of implementation have shifted from administrative to market-oriented and legal frameworks, which may result in slower effects [7]. - The duration of the current reform is expected to be longer, potentially lasting 1-3 years, as it relies on market and institutional changes [7]. Three Stages of Reform - The current supply-side reform may progress through three stages: controlling new projects, promoting industry mergers and restructuring, and potentially implementing mandatory capacity reduction measures if necessary [9]. - The process is not urgent and will adapt to the specific conditions of different industries, with some like the photovoltaic sector possibly moving faster [9]. Historical Review of Previous Reforms - The article identifies five similarities between the supply-side reforms of 1998 and 2015, including similar reform backgrounds and common industry focus [11][12]. - The approach to reform has been consistent, involving setting targets, monitoring progress, strict enforcement, and maintaining employment [13][14]. - The effectiveness of past reforms shows long-term improvements in industry profitability, although short-term impacts varied [16]. Current Assessment of Supply-Side Pressure - A quantitative assessment of supply-side pressures indicates that the current industrial pressure index has not yet reached the levels seen in 2015, suggesting a slower approach to capacity reduction [18]. - The photovoltaic industry currently exhibits the highest pressure index, indicating it may be prioritized in the reform process [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish stance on stocks and commodities in the long - term, driven by global fiscal support for the economy and the shift in monetary policy. In the short - term, it is necessary to focus on the marginal effect of fiscal policy in the third quarter, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, and whether the US will rally other countries against China. [73] - There is a trend of asset spillover, including US assets flowing to non - US and alternative assets, and Chinese fixed - income assets flowing to low - volatility stocks (banks and neutral stocks). The "asset shortage" has shifted towards a better match between liquidity and assets, and stocks and commodities tend to move in tandem. [73] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Fiscal Dominance in the Kondratieff Winter - Fiscal policy determines the economic performance differences among global countries in the past few years due to high leverage ratios in the household and corporate sectors. All countries are expanding fiscal spending. [13] - China's exports have been strong, as shown by the economic formula \(Y = C + I + G+(X - M)=C + S+T\), and \(M - X=(I - S)+(G - T)\). [13] - Fiscal spending shows a "front - loaded high, back - loaded low" pattern this year. The remaining quota in the second half of 2024 was close to 8 trillion, while in 2025 it is only close to 6 trillion. Local government bond net financing has been high, reaching 4.6 trillion, with replacement bond issuance exceeding 1.8 trillion and a nearly 90% issuance progress. In the third quarter, special bond issuance is expected to be 2 trillion, lower than 2.56 trillion in 2024 and close to 1.98 trillion in 2023. [16] - The 300 - billion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond is used to stimulate consumption. It has various subsidy policies for home appliances, new energy vehicles, and other fields, with different subsidy standards for different regions. Some localities have faced issues such as running out of funds, and future adjustments will shift from "universal" to "precise" regulation. [17] 3.2. Why Involution? Why Anti - Involution? - Involution refers to the serious deviation of production factor prices. The current supply - side reform emphasizes "quality improvement" rather than "quantity reduction" and is aimed at long - term high - quality development, which is different from the previous one. [47] - In June, the year - on - year CPI increased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 3.6%, with the PPI - CPI gap continuing to widen. Fiscal policy has addressed the "quantity" issue, and there is no intention to use monetary policy to solve the "price" problem. [51] - Most industries show "quantity increase" but "price decrease." The real estate market has shifted from "price - for - quantity" to a situation of both quantity and price decline. [52][53] - The trade war has compressed profits and costs in an economy that relies on foreign trade. Coal and electricity prices have decreased to benefit downstream industries. [57][59] - There are signs of active inventory replenishment in industrial enterprises, but inventory cycle prediction should not be dogmatic. The commodity index leads the PPI by two months and seems to have bottomed out, and the PMI also shows signs of improvement. [65][66][68] 3.3. Some Conclusions on Major Asset Classes - **Stocks**: The dumbbell strategy is still applicable. Although the market is bullish, it is not recommended to chase high prices at present, especially for small - and micro - cap stocks. [84] - **Commodities**: - The bullish sentiment in the current round may last until the end of this month or early next month. There are many opportunities in different sectors, but no comprehensive ones. Volatility will increase after the release of global liquidity. [85][88] - Precious metals are worth long - term allocation to hedge against currency credit risks, but they need an "asset shortage" scenario to continue rising. [87] - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin have supply disruptions and long - term supply shortages, with positive demand prospects driven by technological trends. However, they lack short - term drivers. New - energy metals like lithium carbonate and industrial silicon are in a supply - demand surplus, and it is recommended to use range - trading strategies. [87] - The black metal sector is in an overall supply - demand surplus, and it is advisable to observe supply disruptions and demand verification. Iron ore is a good long - position after a decline, while coal and soda ash are suitable for short - positions after an increase. [87] - In the energy and chemical sector, attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials on the overall valuation. With excess supply of oil and coal and a shortage of gas, the profit of downstream chemical products is difficult to expand under the current situation of low demand and ongoing large - scale capacity expansion. [87]