Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, increasing by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in various industrial sectors [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in PPI is attributed to seasonal price declines in raw materials, increased green energy production leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to a slowing global trade environment [4][5] - The cumulative CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, indicating weak domestic price levels and insufficient consumer demand, which provides ample policy space for further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus [3][5] - The decline in industrial prices is exacerbated by overcapacity in several sectors, prompting discussions on capacity reduction as part of a new round of supply-side reforms [5]

Group 1 - The 23rd China International Conference in Finance (CICF) was successfully held in Shenzhen, showcasing its growing influence in the global financial academic community [1][2] - The conference received 3,056 submissions, with 1,758 valid papers and 236 accepted papers, highlighting its significance in the finance and economics field [2] - The event recorded a registration of 1,345 participants, marking a new high for in-person attendance, emphasizing the conference's academic stature and international impact [2] Group 2 - Nobel laureate Thomas J. Sargent delivered a keynote speech on optimal fiscal policy based on short-term debt, providing new insights for sustainable fiscal policy design amid high government debt levels globally [2] - The conference agenda spanned three days, featuring 60 academic sub-sessions and 472 presentations covering various cutting-edge topics in finance, including AI-driven capital markets and asset pricing [3] - The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and other institutions actively participated in organizing and evaluating papers, contributing to the establishment of a global financial research platform [3]

泰国副财长表示，敦促央行进一步放松 货币政策， 财政政策将全力刺激经济，准备超过400亿泰铢的资 金用于应对美国关税影响。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% for the first half of the year[1][2] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices and a rise in domestic energy prices due to international crude oil price increases[2][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.4%, indicating a weak overall price level[3][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 3.3% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% for the first half of the year[1][2][8] - The PPI decline was primarily influenced by weak domestic demand and oversupply, leading to accelerated price declines in coal, steel, and cement[2][9] - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, marking four consecutive months of such a decline[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI may return to negative territory in July, likely around -0.2%, due to external economic pressures and high base effects from the previous year[7][12] - The PPI is expected to continue its month-on-month decline in July, but the rate of decline may slightly narrow, with a year-on-year decline projected to remain around -3.6%[12]

·五矿期货：黄金在美国宽财政预期已逐步兑现的影响下表现将会相对偏弱 ·国投期货：贵金属延续调整等待关税进展驱动 ·徽商期货：避险属性带来有力支撑金价短期或以高位震荡为主 ·Zaner Metals：市场对贸易紧张局势缓和的预期直接削弱了黄金的避险需求 ·FXEmpire市场分析师Christopher Lewis认为，考虑到很多地缘政治事件，以及围绕关税战的不确定性， 黄金仍长期看涨。但就目前的情况而言，它仍在消除一些过度的泡沫。现在只是没有人愿意在市场上投 入大量资金，但从长期角度来看，回调将继续吸引买家。 ·FXEmpire：黄金仍长期看涨回调将继续吸引买家 （文章来源：新华财经） ·徽商期货认为，特朗普政府最新的关税政策引发了市场对全球贸易摩擦升级的担忧，避险需求提升推 涨金价，但美元指数走高在一定程度上限制了金价的上涨空间。从短期来看，关税政策对美国经济的影 响将逐渐显现，经济增长或面临一定压力。美国通胀仍有走高预期，在"类滞胀"风险加剧的背景下，美 联储政策路径依然充满不确定性。此外，关税政策也充满不确定性，叠加地缘政治风险上升，避险属性 会给贵金属价格带来有力的支撑，金价短期或以高位震荡为主。 · ...

Group 1 - UBS's report addresses ten challenging questions from investors regarding global economic conditions and strategic outlook [1] - The report highlights that current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, with global growth tracking at a mere 1.3% year-on-year, placing it in the 8th lowest historical percentile [1] - The report indicates that the recent dollar sell-off is not indicative of a long-term depreciation trend, as it lacks key elements seen in previous cycles, such as improved economic growth in other regions [2] Group 2 - The initial impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation data is expected to manifest in the July CPI report, with significant effects potentially delayed by one to two months [3] - There is a notable discrepancy between reported trade data and container shipping data, suggesting that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering prices to absorb tariff costs [4] - The U.S. budget deficit is primarily influenced by the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about supply issues persisting, but historical demand fluctuations are expected to absorb any supply increases [5] Group 3 - Evidence suggests a reduction in foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets, with April data indicating asset sell-offs, although the continuation of this trend remains uncertain [6] - The U.S. stock market typically outperforms during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is largely driven by the U.S. economy, with European markets showing unexpected resilience [7] - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to provide a 45 basis point boost to economic growth by 2026, despite initially increasing the deficit [9] Group 4 - Central banks globally are adjusting their policies in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of 1-3 rate cuts, while the Fed faces a dilemma balancing inflation and employment concerns [10] - China has implemented fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 1.5-2% of GDP, with further monetary easing anticipated, including a potential 20-30 basis point rate cut [11]

Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a rebound due to effective policy measures, although export pressures remain [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of growth [2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [2]. - New export orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points, continuing its upward trend for two months [2]. - Special bond issuance reached approximately 21,607 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 44.7% increase compared to 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]. Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year, particularly through special bonds and local government financing to support economic growth and counteract tariff impacts [3][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is anticipated to be a critical point for policy adjustments [3][5]. Inflation and Economic Growth - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has recorded negative growth for 32 consecutive months since October 2022 [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in May, with four consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is projected to be around 5.2%, with a target of 5% for the full year [4]. Future Outlook - Economic downward pressure persists, influenced by tariff fluctuations and weak domestic demand [5]. - The government may introduce additional policies to support key sectors and stabilize the economy, including potential monetary easing if external conditions worsen [6].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/09 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 变化 -20 47 0 - ...

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by both the Senate and House of Representatives, showcasing President Trump's strong control over the Republican Party [1][5] - The bill includes significant cuts to Medicaid, making it harder for beneficiaries to access healthcare, with an estimated 11.8 million Americans expected to lose Medicaid coverage over the next decade [2][9] - The bill will increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next ten years, leading to higher interest rates and increased costs for consumer loans and business financing [4][9] Group 2 - The bill has sparked intense political battles between the Republican and Democratic parties, reflecting deepening political divisions in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election [5][8] - The passage of the bill has been met with widespread skepticism regarding its economic impact, particularly concerning the potential increase in national debt and wealth inequality [9][11] - The bill is expected to disproportionately benefit the wealthiest Americans, with the top 20% of income earners projected to see an annual net income increase of nearly $13,000, while the lowest income group may experience a 1.1% decrease in post-tax income [12][11] Group 3 - The bill's passage has led to a public fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk, who criticized the bill for undermining fiscal responsibility and announced the formation of a new political party, the "American Party" [16][17] - The new party could potentially influence legislative processes if it gains traction, although establishing a new political party typically requires significant time and financial resources [17]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]