清晨的阳光照进银行大厅，玻璃门上贴着的"大额存单利率"数字从年初的"1字头"变成了现在的"0字头"。2026年一开年，关于"巨额定期存款流向哪儿"的 讨论开始升温。 随着一年期定存利率破"1"成为现实，过去享受"3字头"利率的定存资金，现在急需寻找新的理财替代品。 固收+产品：稳健理财的新选择 面对存款利率持续下行的趋势，"固收+"基金成为不少投资者的新选择。这类产品通过"债券打底+权益增强"的策略，在控制风险的同时寻求适度收益。 根据中金公司的测算数据，2026年一季度居民1年期及以上定期存款到期规模将达29万亿元。而天风证券的研究显示，2026年全年到期存款规模约73万 亿，较2025年提升约12万亿。尽管各家数据略有差异，但一个共识正在形成：平均约50万亿元定期存款，正面临到期再配置的压力。 到期压力 从银行公开信息来看，2026年多家银行新发行的1年期以下大额存单利率已跌破1%，部分产品收益甚至低于同期货币基金。 在存款集中到期与银行息差承压的双重背景下，储户间正掀起新一轮存款搬家潮。 分析背后原因，银行的净息差持续处于低位。数据显示，截至2025年第三季，商业银行净息差收窄至1.42%。 2025年 ...

上海房价跌麻了，两位数跌幅成常态，而00后却喊出"不要房子要法拉利"！曾经挤破头抢房的上海，如 今连下一代接盘侠都"跑路"了？这届年轻人到底在想什么？上海楼市的底，到底在哪？ 放在3年前，谁能想到上海楼市会是如今的光景？2021-2022年倒挂打新最疯狂时，楼盘没售楼处、没样 板间、没沙盘，照样有人盲买，认筹率飙到500%。而现在，开发商急得团团转，送车位、包邮轮、请 明星卖房成常规操作，购房者却能"横着走"，坐等打折再出手。 更扎心的是，楼市的核心变化不止是价格下跌，更是"接盘侠断层"。85后还在为置换焦头烂额，95后要 么咬牙上车要么干脆躺平，00后直接跳出棋局——"房子是什么？我要开法拉利！" 这样的反差背后， 是上海楼市几十年未有的大转折。 先看一组扎心数据：最近一年，上海新房、二手房平均挂牌价格跌幅接近两位数，和北京等一线城市一 起陷入持续下行通道。板块、房龄、产品的分化越来越严重：顶豪楼盘照样日光，核心区优质次新抗跌 性较强，而大虹桥、唐镇等投资客集中的板块，已经出现大量抛盘，甚至有楼盘爆出70多套法拍房，直 接击穿板块信心。 市场的攻守之势早已反转。曾经强势的开发商，如今成了被动的一方。2025 ...

Core Insights - The investment outlook for 2026 emphasizes "stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency," supported by proactive macro policies and robust counter-cyclical adjustments, indicating a promising start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The ongoing technological revolution is reshaping the global economic and industrial landscape, presenting significant investment opportunities in technology, overseas expansion, and domestic demand [1][2] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is viewed positively, with favorable domestic policies and a supportive capital market [3] - Fiscal policies are expected to focus on social welfare, while monetary policy remains "moderately loose," allowing for potential rate cuts [3] - The shift towards equity assets is anticipated as risk-free rates decline, with structural opportunities in AI, energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] Global Investment Strategies - The investment strategy includes a focus on resilience and rebalancing, with an optimistic view on risk assets due to stabilizing economic conditions [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar are expected to benefit emerging market assets [4] AI Industry Insights - The AI sector is highlighted as a key investment focus, with significant growth potential in computing power demand [5] - OpenAI's computing power investments and revenue growth have created a positive feedback loop, indicating a strong future for AI-related investments [5][6] - The AI competition is fundamentally different from the 2000 internet bubble, as it revolves around the control of critical production resources [6] Investment Strategy Focus - The strategy emphasizes growth sectors and the gradual overseas expansion of Chinese manufacturing, which is seen as a structural opportunity [7] - High-dividend assets and technology giants in the Hong Kong market are considered attractive, though caution is advised [8] Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The "fixed income plus" strategy is gaining importance in the context of declining interest rates, with expectations for stable returns from bonds [9] - The overall outlook for the equity market remains positive, with a focus on corporate earnings support [9] - The potential for volatility in the fixed income market is acknowledged, with a focus on systematic asset allocation to achieve stable returns [10] Conclusion - The investment strategy conference reflects the company's expertise in multi-asset management, emphasizing a long-term, fundamental approach to investment [11] - The company aims to enhance its investment and service capabilities to deliver better returns and experiences for investors [11]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the risk assessment for the US and Japan is rising, while the domestic risk assessment in China is steadily declining, making low-risk equity assets like A-shares relatively superior [7][20][30] - Gold and strategic metals within commodities continue to hold investment value, benefiting from the global low-risk characteristics of equity assets [7][20][30] - The report highlights that the trend for risk assets remains strong, with A-shares, commodities, and gold showing robust performance, while US stocks are experiencing overall fluctuations [21][30] Group 2 - In the expectation dimension, domestic supply remains strong while demand is weak, indicating a need for more support for domestic consumption [14][15] - The uncertainty surrounding US policies is increasing, leading to a rise in the risk assessment of dollar-denominated assets [16] - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate, but the fiscal outlook is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the dissolution of the House of Representatives [17]

这一理念的践行，离不开对宏观经济和产业的深刻洞悉、以及市场脉动的敏锐把握。回看市场，今年以 来，上证指数时隔10年再次站上4100点大关，点燃了市场热情，全A日均成交额已经突破3万亿元。站 在当前时点，随着"十五五规划"正式启动，新一轮科技革命重塑全球经济与产业格局，宏观环境的节奏 如何把握？科技变革的机遇在哪里？如何在复杂多变的市场环境中精准布局、挖掘超额收益？针对这些 问题，景顺长城资产配置、权益、固收以及混合资产管理团队的投研骨干在策略会上，进行了深入拆 解，并带来他们的最新研究和思考。同时，本次策略会还请来了外方股东景顺集团的投资专家，分享全 球视野下的资产配置策略，干货满满。 宏观环境：国内政策环境有利，美元走弱利好新兴市场 对于2026年的宏观环境，景顺长城首席资产配置官王勇持相对乐观的态度。他表示，2026年是"十五 五"规划开局之年，整体政策环境利好资本市场。一方面，财政政策延续取向积极，支出重点向民生领 域倾斜；另一方面，货币政策"适度宽松"基调不变，降准和降息仍有一定空间，但估计央行会保持审 慎。 王勇还指出，在科技、内循环、外循环三大齿轮转动下，中国经济结构转型成功概率正在提升。其中三 ...

近期贵金属市场的表现足以载入金融史册。黄金价格已正式突破 5000 美元/盎司，白银也在极短时间内站稳了 100 美元 关口。面对如此高位， 市场在震惊之余也产生了巨大的分歧：这究竟是阶段性的顶点，还是一个新时代的起点？ 阿萨交易学院分析师 Eden 认为，如果简单将此次狂飙归结为避险情绪，显然低估了本轮行情的强度。金银同步走强的背后，折射出的是全球 金融体系底层的结构性裂变。 从宏观视角来看，金银的大幅上涨反映了美元体系长期承压的公信力。近期美国在多个地缘方向上的动作——从对委内瑞拉、伊朗的激进举 措，到对格陵兰岛的主权表态，以及对北约成员国反复无常的关税威胁，都让美元作为全球储备货币所提供的"规则红利"受到侵蚀。 当投资者意识到资产配置换来的不再是体系稳定，而是更高的政策不确定性时，黄金和白银便成了重新定价风险的唯一锚点。这种从"制度信 任"向"硬资产信任"的迁移，是支撑金价站稳 5000 美元的核心基石。 阿萨交易学院分析师 Zero 指出，主要经济体近期在军费、公共安全及基础设施上的支出计划表明，全球财政约束正在弱化。这种财政扩张往 往伴随着货币供给的变相增加，从而抬高中长期的通胀预期。 在法币购买力 ...

1月26日，国际现货黄金价格在亚洲交易时段内快速攀升，接连突破5000美元和5100美元两大关键节点，盘中最高触及5111.11美元/盎司。这一现象不仅反映 了全球经济格局的深刻变化，也揭示了货币政策调整、地缘政治冲突以及全球储备资产结构演变等多重因素的叠加影响。 黄金 X 5097.42 >> 5013.47 总手 2.30% 114.51 结算 4982.91 昨结 分时 五日 t 目K 5111.11 4982.91 那 主要经济体的货币政策预期也对黄金价格产生重要影响。市场普遍预期美联储将延续降息周期，这一预期降低了持有黄金的机会成本，提高了其作为非生息 资产的吸引力。高盛已将2026年底的黄金价格预测上调至5400美元，理由包括私人投资者与各国央行的需求持续增长。 从技术面来看，金价突破5000美元后继续上行至5100美元以上，显示出市场的强劲动能。然而，东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪提醒，由于美联储即将 召开1月议息会议，若降息节奏不及预期，金价可能在4800至5200美元区间内波动，甚至引发技术性回调。 面对黄金价格处于历史高位的情况，投资者应基于资产配置的原则而非短期价格预测来做出决策。瑞银 ...

二、基本面支撑：黄金长期易涨难跌 从供求关系、货币政策与地缘风险三大核心因素分析，黄金价格未来更可能维持高位震荡，而非跌回十 年前的水平。 1. 全球央行"囤金"潮持续 机构预测：高盛、摩根士丹利等投行普遍预计，2026年国际金价将运行在4500-5400美元/盎司区间（对 应国内金价约1050-1250元/克），远高于当前水平。即使出现回调，金价更可能在800-900元/克区间震 荡，而非跌回350元/克的"历史低位"。 三、投资建议：放弃极端低价幻想，把握现实回调机会 当国际金价突破5000美元/盎司、国内金价徘徊在950-1000元/克的当下，市场上悄然流传着一种声 音："黄金未来会跌回350元/克吗？"这一数字看似遥远，却折射出部分投资者对黄金价格波动的焦虑与 期待。然而，从历史规律、市场逻辑与基本面分析来看，黄金跌至350元/克的概率几乎可以忽略不计， 与其等待这种极端低价，不如把握更现实的回调机会，构建稳健的资产配置。 一、350元/克：一个需要"多重极端条件"的假设 当前国内金价约950-1000元/克，若跌至350元/克，意味着价格需暴跌60%以上。这一幅度不仅远超黄金 历史上的任何单边下跌行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing interest in Hong Kong savings insurance as a viable investment option amidst market volatility and inflation concerns, highlighting its dual benefits of capital preservation and value appreciation [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Mechanism - Hong Kong savings insurance offers a "guaranteed cash value + non-guaranteed dividends" structure, with a minimum return of 0.5%-1%, ensuring that investors can recover their principal even if non-guaranteed dividends are zero [3][5]. - The investment strategy of companies like Manulife Insurance, supported by strong asset management capabilities, focuses on a "1+N" asset allocation model, primarily consisting of fixed income with alternative investments to balance stability and returns [5][8]. Group 2: Risk Management and Stability - The asset allocation is heavily weighted towards fixed income, with 80% of underlying assets and 99% of fixed income investments managed by a reputable firm, ensuring a solid foundation for stability [5]. - The insurance products include a dividend smoothing mechanism that helps maintain stable payouts during market fluctuations, addressing investor concerns about significant dividend reductions [5][8]. Group 3: Global Diversification and Flexibility - Hong Kong savings insurance provides global investment capabilities and flexible features, such as multi-currency conversion, which helps mitigate exchange rate risks and facilitates diversified asset allocation [6][8]. - The products serve as a comprehensive wealth planning tool, allowing for unlimited changes in insured persons, designated backup policyholders, and flexible withdrawal options to meet various financial needs [6][8]. Group 4: Long-term Wealth Growth - The combination of asset preservation, global investment advantages, and family-oriented features positions Hong Kong savings insurance as a compelling choice for investors seeking stable and long-term wealth growth [8].

来源：金十数据 华侨银行分析师上调了对黄金的价格预测，目前预计到2026年底金价将达到每盎司5600美元。该行外汇 策略师Christopher Wong表示，此次上调源于避险金属的强劲涨势，促使其将原预测的4800美元上调。 Wong表示，金价上涨反映了近期事态发展及其持续性超预期，而非底层逻辑的重新评估。"演变的是配 置黄金的程度，而非持有黄金的根本理由。" Wong指出，政府债务上升、地缘政治担忧和政策不确定性，已显著提升了黄金在投资者资产配置中的 结构性地位。黄金不再仅仅是危机或通胀对冲工具，而正日益被视为一种中性、可靠的价值储存手段， 能提供资产多元化。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：安东 ...