Market Overview - The A-share market opened with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.26% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.4% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures opened with a decline of 0.15%, the 10-year futures down 0.04%, the 5-year down 0.03%, and the 2-year futures unchanged [1] ETF Performance - The 30-year government bond ETF, Bosera (511130), experienced fluctuations, with an intraday drop of 35 basis points and a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] Monetary Policy Insights - Recent institutional reports suggest that July typically sees "spontaneous" easing in the market, with government bonds and credit demand unlikely to create liquidity "shocks" [1] - The central bank's assessment of the economy is not yet urgent but is beginning to focus on downward risks, particularly in manufacturing due to tariff disruptions [1] - Historical data indicates that when the manufacturing PMI falls into contraction for three consecutive months, liquidity tends to ease, potentially triggering adjustments in monetary policy [1] Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment in June reached its loosest state of the year, with the average funding rate dropping to approximately 1.56%, a new low for the year [2] - The central bank has increased its funding injections, particularly in medium to long-term funds, to counterbalance the pressures from government bond supply and maturing certificates of deposit [2] - In June, government bond issuance exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, while the maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit surpassed 4 trillion yuan [2] Government Bond ETF Details - The 30-year government bond ETF Bosera (511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [3] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. The UNICA bi - weekly production data will be the key variable guiding market sentiment. The current ICE raw sugar futures price has partially reflected the expected high - yield in Brazil. After breaking through the key support level of 16.5 cents per pound, price - sensitive buying has significantly increased, and the basis is strong. With the recent deterioration of weather in Brazil, the raw sugar futures market is expected to rebound significantly after the July delivery. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise this week. Although there were profit - taking orders from long - position holders at the 5800 - level, there is still room for upward movement based on the position structure and market sentiment, so long positions can be held for now [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The focus of the raw sugar market has shifted to the new crushing season in Brazil. Different institutions have released forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil [6]. - **Demand**: As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%. The cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The quotations of sugar - making groups mostly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere continued to improve, and the overall spot trading was good [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons. The industrial inventory at the end of May was 3.0483 million tons. As of late May, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 1.38 million tons, about 0.19 million tons more than the same period last year [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 27, the number of registered sugar warehouse receipts was 23,992, with 0 valid forecasts, totaling 23,992, down from 27,669 last week [6]. - **Basis**: The spot transaction price of sugar in Guangxi was 6,012 yuan per ton. The quotations of sugar - making groups mostly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere continued to improve, and the overall spot trading was good [6]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil was about 5,574 yuan per ton, and that from Thailand was 5,680 yuan per ton. The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week, and the out - of - quota import profit remained flat [6]. - **Macro**: The short - term geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, which has a positive impact on the market. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September have increased, and there are expectations of incremental reserve policies in China, which have boosted market confidence in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Long positions can continue to be held. The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. After the July delivery, the raw sugar futures market is expected to rebound significantly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise this week, and there is still room for upward movement, so long positions can be held for now [6]. 2. Weekly Sugar Market News - The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production and sales both increased year - on - year [15]. - As of the week of June 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 76 to 74, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 149,700 tons or 5.25% week - on - week [15]. - In the second half of May, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 8.86% year - on - year, with an increase in the sugar - making ratio [16]. 3. Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.16 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [21]. - **Domestic Sales**: The domestic sugar market has entered the pure sales stage. The cumulative sugar sales as of May were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [25]. - **Brazilian Exports and Domestic Imports**: There are data on Brazilian sugar exports and domestic sugar imports, but specific trends are not detailed in the summary part [32]. - **Imports of Domestic Substitute Syrups and Premixed Powders**: In May, the total import of syrups and premixed powders was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. From January to May, the total import was 346,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 385,800 tons [38]. - **Out - of - Quota Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 27,669 last week to 23,992 as of June 27 [48].

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性，市场流动性边际宽 松。回顾方面，5 月信贷、通胀数据表现偏弱，政策托底需要偏宽松的货币 ...

新华财经上海6月16日电（记者杨溢仁）在基本面、资金面利好支撑的背景下，债市投资者从"看多"转 向"做多"。分析人士指出，当前各机构择券主要锚定"资金面"，考虑到货币宽松有望进一步延续，则眼 下"止盈未至"，仍可积极布局。 债市依旧"顺风" 根据券商调研，当前的债市情绪已接近年内最乐观值。 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至6月16日收盘，银行间10年期国债收益率已从4月 1日的1.81%回落至1.64%附近。 "就机构行为来看，临近半年末，公募基金'冲'收益诉求增强，中长期债基久期回升。聚焦交易层面， 前述情况更为突出，基金主力买入10年、30年期利率债券，同时加大了中期票据的买入力度，说明基金 在增配中短期信用债拿票息的同时，也在拉长久期博取资本利得。"一位机构交易员告诉记者，"不仅如 此，现阶段债市整体的杠杆率也在回升，并已超过去年水平。" 记者注意到，一季度债市资金面整体均衡偏紧，DR007运行在政策利率上方，对应债市杠杆率持续处于 低位，远低于季节性水平。而反观当前，在央行提前公布买断式逆回购操作（精准对冲流动性压力）， 且大型商业银行密集购买短债的背景下，6月虽面临跨季但资金面并不紧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic attitude towards the bond market, suggesting investors retain corresponding positions and durations, with a recommended combination of 3-year policy financial bonds + 10-year treasury bonds, and an increase in holdings of 3 - 5-year credit bonds and perpetual bonds [3][60] 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank has adjusted its monetary policy operating target to DR001, and the current funds have not reached the lower limit of the new model. Considering the central bank's goal of reducing costs, there is a possibility of seeing DR001 between 1.2% - 1.3% in the future, and the central bank's recent large - scale reverse repurchase operations have released a signal to stabilize liquidity [2][22] - The pressure of export decline may become more prominent after July. The economic data in May was still weak, with low credit growth, high fiscal deposits, and continued negative growth in CPI and PPI. The inflation - low state may persist for some time [2][3] - The short - end of the bond market needs time to price in the loose funds. Although the short - end interest rate has not responded significantly to the current loose funds, if the funds remain loose, the short - end and long - end interest rates still have room to decline [3][56] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Policy's Operating Target Adjusted to DR001, Current Funds Not at New Model's Lower Limit - Historically, the central bank used DR007 as the operating target, but due to the influence of non - bank behavior on the supply and demand of 7 - day funds, it was difficult to balance the control of DR007 and overnight interest rates. Since 2023, the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate has increased, while the deviation of DR001 has narrowed [8][9] - In 2024, the central bank created temporary overnight repurchase and reverse repurchase tools, indicating a more explicit rule for overnight interest rate control. In 2025 Q1, the quarterly monetary policy report also replaced DR007 with DR001 and its upper and lower limits [16][22] - As of June, the lowest value of DR001 has dropped to 1.36%, but the lower limit of 1.2% has not been reached. The central bank's recent 4000 - billion 6 - month reverse repurchase operations released a signal to stabilize liquidity, and there is a possibility of further decline in the funds' interest rate center [2][22] 3.2 Export Decline Pressure May Intensify after July, May's Credit Remained Weak, and Government Deposits Were Not Released - The May export growth rate dropped from 8.1% in April to 4.8%. The impact of "grabbing exports" was not obvious. Although it may boost June's data, the recent container freight volume growth was moderate, and the decline pressure of exports may intensify after July [27][29] - In May, the new social financing increment was 2.29 trillion, and the stock growth rate remained at 8.7%. The new credit was 620 billion, lower than expected. The decline in bill financing was the main reason for the under - expectation of credit, and the entity's financing demand was not active [32][35] - In May, fiscal deposits increased by 880 billion, significantly higher than expected, possibly due to the slow progress of fiscal expenditure and the use of special refinancing bonds, or the non - expenditure of the special treasury bonds. The inflation data remained in negative growth, and the economic heat showed no significant improvement [36][41] 3.3 Short - End Needs Time to Price in Loose Funds, Temporarily Hold Positions and Durations - Recently, ultra - long bonds have performed strongly, which may be due to traders' strong sentiment towards the bond market. Whether the market is at the end of the rally depends on whether the short - end space can be opened [53] - Although the current funds are loose, the short - end interest rate has not responded significantly. The central bank's new operating target of DR001 indicates that there is still room for the overnight interest rate to decline, and the policy rate may be adjusted in Q3 [56] - If the funds remain loose, the short - end interest rate has room to decline. Considering the possible decline in the expected yield of wealth management products and insurance rates in the second half of the year, it is recommended to hold a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds + 10 - year treasury bonds and increase holdings of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds and perpetual bonds [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rebound, with most industrial products rising and agricultural products soaring. The main reasons were the large - scale conflict between Israel and Iran, the improvement of the Sino - US framework agreement, the resilience of the Chinese economy, and the lower - than - expected US inflation boosting the interest - rate cut expectation, which improved market risk appetite [3]. - Multiple factors may cause the commodity market to continue to rebound in the short term, including the Sino - US framework agreement, the improvement of the US economic outlook and the decline of inflation expectations, and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Overseas Situation Analysis - **Sino - US London Consultation Reached a Principle Agreement**: From June 9 - 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a principle agreement on implementing the consensus of the heads - of - state call and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. China's exports may still have a window period for "rush exports" before July, but the export growth rate may decline in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **US: May CPI Lower than Market Expectations**: In May, the overall CPI in the US rose 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year and rose only 0.1% month - on - month, for the fourth consecutive month lower than expected. After the data was released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before September jumped to 75%, and the annual interest - rate cut expectation remained at about 45 basis points. It is believed that the probability of a soft landing of the US economy in recent years is still large, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the fourth quarter [10]. - **US: Confidence Index Rebounded and Inflation Expectation Declined**: In June, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 60.5, a month - on - month increase of 15.9%. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 5.1% from 6.6%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation slightly decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%. The suspension of tariffs and the decline of inflation expectations drove the confidence to rebound, but there are still concerns in the future [13]. - **Middle - East Situation Escalated**: On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched an attack on Iran. Iran launched a series of retaliatory actions. The global economy was shaken, with the Brent crude oil price soaring 8% to $94 per barrel, the global stock markets falling generally, and the gold price breaking through $3400 per ounce [16]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data: Mixed Results**: In June, the new social financing was 228.94 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.1%. M2 increased 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased 2.3%. Overall, the government sector was still the main force of entity - sector financing. The central bank's actions to guide monetary easing and the expectation of restarting treasury bond trading may bring a favorable environment to the capital market [21]. - **Foreign Trade Data Interpretation: Exports Maintained Short - term Resilience**: In May, exports increased 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year. The decline in exports was affected by the weakening of "rush exports" and the high base, and the decline in imports was dragged down by the decline in commodity imports. In the short term, exports are expected to maintain a certain resilience, but there will be pressure in the second half of the year [24]. - **Policy Tracking**: The release of the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihood" may bring development opportunities to multiple fields such as consumption and elderly care. The acceleration of the "one - old - and - one - young" policy may bring development opportunities to multiple industries, including the maternal and infant consumption, elderly care service, and related equipment industries [25]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production End: Industrial Production was Generally Stable**: In the chemical industry, the production load remained stable, and product prices declined. In the steel industry, production declined slightly, and demand slowed down [34]. - **Demand End: Real - Estate Sales Increased Week - on - Week and Passenger - Car Retail Sales Increased Year - on - Year**: As of June 12, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities increased 43.96% week - on - week. In the first week of June, the average daily retail sales of the national passenger - car market were 43,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 19% [41]. - **Price Trends**: As of June 13, most food prices fell this week. The average vegetable price decreased 0.05% month - on - month, the average pork price decreased 1.48% month - on - month, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased 0.25% month - on - month, and the fruit price decreased 2.01% month - on - month [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is "sideways". In the short - term (within a week), they are expected to move sideways; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), also sideways; and intraday, they are expected to be slightly bullish [1][5]. - The core logic is that macroeconomic indicators have weakened, and the Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not achieved substantial progress, with high uncertainty remaining, which disturbs external demand. The market's expectation of monetary easing has increased, and the downside risk of Treasury bond futures is low. However, the possibility of continuous interest rate cuts in the short - term to boost demand is not high [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "slightly bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is the weakening of macroeconomic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "slightly bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". The core logic is that last Friday, Treasury bond futures continued to trade in a narrow range. Sino - US economic and trade consultations had no substantial progress, and external demand is disturbed. Domestic macroeconomic indicators have weakened, increasing the expectation of monetary easing. The short - term possibility of continuous interest rate cuts is low. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly move sideways, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's monetary policy and credit data, indicating a mixed outlook with signs of both improvement and concern in various sectors of the economy [3][4][11]. Monetary Policy and Credit Data - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, significantly lower than the expected 802.6 billion and the previous year's 950 billion [3][4]. - New social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion, exceeding expectations and previous values, indicating a better-than-expected performance [11]. - The growth rate of M2 was 7.9%, slightly below expectations, while M1 growth improved to 2.3% [3][12]. Sector Analysis - The residential short-term loans have seen negative growth for two consecutive months, reflecting weak consumer spending, while medium to long-term loans have turned positive, aligning with real estate sales trends [5][6]. - Corporate short-term financing has increased significantly, indicating improved cash flow pressures, while medium to long-term loans have continued to show less growth due to weakened investment sentiment amid tariff disturbances [9][11]. Government and Corporate Financing - Government bond financing was a major support for social financing, with 1.46 trillion issued, while corporate bond financing also showed positive growth, suggesting that corporate financing conditions have not deteriorated significantly [13]. - The article highlights that the overall credit expansion is still heavily influenced by fiscal policies, with a need for continued policy support to stimulate demand [4][12].

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is low despite a strong performance in the major indices, indicating a potential final adjustment phase before a significant upward movement [1] - The A-share market's rebound is closely tied to the performance of the liquor sector, suggesting that a bottoming out in this sector could trigger a rapid index increase [1] - The market's fluctuations are primarily aimed at causing losses for retail investors, highlighting a strategic manipulation of stock prices [1] Group 2 - The central bank plans to conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, following a 1 trillion yuan injection at the beginning of the month, indicating a net liquidity injection for June [3] - There is a significant gap of 4 trillion yuan between the increase in deposits and the growth in loans over the first five months, suggesting that without a recovery in the real estate and stock markets, monetary easing may not effectively stimulate the economy [3] - Investors are currently favoring bank deposits over riskier investments like stocks and real estate, as the perceived safety of deposits outweighs potential losses in other sectors [3] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to rebound significantly, with recent market movements characterized as a strategic manipulation to induce buying opportunities [5] - The market is undergoing a rotation process, where funds are being reallocated among sectors, and a recovery in key industries could lead to a substantial rebound in the index [5] - The current market dynamics suggest that the recent downturns are part of a larger strategy to prepare for a stronger upward movement, with institutional investors playing a crucial role [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate strongly. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being the marginal weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that yesterday, all national debt futures oscillated and rebounded slightly. The results of Sino - US economic and trade measures in London are highly uncertain, and investors are waiting and watching. The recently released macro - economic data has weakened, increasing the market's expectation of future monetary easing, providing strong bottom support for national debt futures. However, currently, fiscal policy has stronger marginal effectiveness than monetary policy. In the short term, financial policies need to wait for policy guidance from the Lujiazui Forum on June 18, and the possibility of continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is low. Overall, it is expected that national debt futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Time - cycle and Variety - specific Views - For TL2509, short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and stronger, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the marginal weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. Price -行情 and Driving Logic - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is oscillatory and stronger, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The driving factors include the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade measures, weakening macro - economic data, and the need to wait for policy guidance from the Lujiazui Forum [5].