Core CPI and Economic Policy - The core CPI shows a steady upward trend, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the increasing impact of domestic demand on prices [1][5] - In May, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] CPI and PPI Trends - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [2][7] - Energy prices dropped by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [4] Food Prices and Consumer Demand - Food prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with pork prices rising by 3.1% but showing a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [4] - The analysis indicates that consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with expectations of gradual improvement in consumption as counter-cyclical policies take effect [4][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors are experiencing marginal price improvements, with some consumer goods seeing price stabilization or increases [8] - High-tech product demand is expanding, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] Future Price Outlook - Short-term inflation may face dual pressures, with expectations of continued negative growth in CPI and PPI in the second and third quarters [9] - Recent financial policies may signal the start of a new round of incremental policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [9]

记者 辛圆 国家统计局周一发布数据显示，5月，中国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，降幅较4月持平；工业品出厂价格（PPI）同比下降3.3%，降幅较4月扩大 0.6个百分点。 统计局在当天发布的新闻稿中解读称，5月份，能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点，是CPI同比下降的 主要因素。 除了能源价格的低迷，东方金诚研究发展部部门总监冯琳对智通财经表示，受季节性因素影响，5月蔬菜价格走低，加之上年同期基数偏高，当月蔬菜价格 同比降幅有所扩大。此外，5月鸡蛋价格同比降幅也在扩大。上述因素会抵消当月水果价格上涨带来的影响，推动5月食品CPI同比降幅扩大，这也在一定程 度上拖累了CPI。 "综合来看，6月CPI同比有可能继续处于负值区间，下半年推动物价水平合理回升将成为宏观政策的一个重要目标，这也将为财政加力促消费及央行进一步 降息打开空间。"冯琳在采访中说。 浙商证券首席经济学家李超在研究报告中指出，居民部门的消费需求仍处于修复的关键节点，随着增量逆周期政策发力和消费需求的渐次改善，并考虑经济 运行距离潜在增速尚有一段距离，在产出缺口逐步弥合的过程中， ...

金十数据6月9日讯，叠加上年同期对比基数走高等因素影响，PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。但 从边际变化看，我国宏观政策加力实施，部分行业供需关系有所改善，一些领域价格呈向好态势。消费 新动能不断壮大带动生活资料等价格同比回升。提振消费相关政策持续显效，部分消费品需求释放带动 相关行业价格回升。生活资料价格环比由上月下降0.2%转为持平。高端装备制造等产业发展带动相关 行业价格同比上涨。产业发展高端化、智能化、绿色化转型稳步推进，高技术产品需求扩大，相关行业 价格同比上涨。 国家统计局：PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点 部分行业供需关系有所改善 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：关税政策提振铝价 关注高价下游反馈 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。受美元走软和美国数据疲软支撑，市场努力 应对日益加剧的经济等不确定性。美国数据显示非制造业采购经理人指数 上月降至 49.9，为 2024 年 6 月以来的最低值，而 ADP 数据显示美国民间增 加的就业岗位为两年多来最少。所有人都在关注周五的美国非农就业报告， 以寻找美联储下一步行动的线索。白宫今日发表声明称，美国总统特朗普 正式将钢铁和铝的关税从 25%提高到 50%，新关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is entering a period of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. It is necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profits [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the near - month non - main contracts have rebounded, and there are safety inspection voices in the main production areas. The short - term may see a rebound, while the medium - term strategy is still high - selling [6]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are under pressure due to macro - level negatives. Their prices are expected to be mainly under pressure [7]. - For iron ore, the off - season effect is gradually being realized, and there is still room for the price to fall [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2905 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan (-2.12%); HC2601 at 3045 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%); J2601 at 658.5 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan (-1.42%); JM2601 at 735.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-3.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-1.18%); HC2510 at 3052 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.04%); J2509 at 695.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (-1.14%); JM2509 at 719 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan (-3.03%) [2]. - **Spreads**: On June 3rd, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 was 23 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 was 17 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; J2509 - 2601 was - 23.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM2509 - 2601 was - 16.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan, up 9 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.21, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.81, up 0.01; the rebar disk profit was <73.18, down 17.78; the coking disk profit was 342.73, up 0.31 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, Shanghai rebar was 3080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 96.3, down 0.5. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Rizhao Port: PB was 728 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: On June 3rd, the basis of HC main contract was 108 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; RB main contract was 152 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; I main contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract was 252.13 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; JM main contract was 216 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. Macro - environment is uncertain, and there may be a short - term policy vacuum. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse market expectations, but relevant information is lacking. It is necessary to maintain the idea of selling hedging or spot pre - sale [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to fall, and the futures black - chain index is at a new low. The 07 contract of coking coal has increased in position and price, and safety inspections are reported in the main production areas. The market is affected by overseas tariffs, and the cost curve of coking coal is unclear. Short - term rebound may occur, and medium - term high - selling opportunities can be focused on [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron has reduced supply, weakened direct and terminal demand, and weakened cost support. Manganese silicon has a relatively balanced supply - demand situation, but supply may increase marginally, and costs are also moving down. Both are under price pressure [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Ore shipments are gradually recovering, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. Steel demand is weakening seasonally, and iron water production is declining. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit on iron water production and the stability of steel exports [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, do well in hedging and open - position management, and conduct appropriate inventory rotation. For arbitrage positions, the coil - to - rebar spread has temporarily stopped losing [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term may see a rebound, and the medium - term strategy is high - selling [9]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Short - sell on rallies due to the repeated Sino - US trade negotiations, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core Views - For成材, it is expected to have an oscillatory consolidation with a downward trend in the price center, running weakly [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term range - bound movement, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4] 3) Summary According to Related Content For成材 - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will have production disruptions, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - **Market Performance**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase. The price of成材 continued to decline, hitting a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand pattern, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Outlook**: It will run in an oscillatory consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [3] For Aluminum - **Cost and Profit**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment has eased. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by about 258 yuan/ton last week to about 17,200 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase. The profit of aluminum plants has been compressed. The average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] - **Production and Inventory**: In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY. As of June 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week [3] - **Industry Index**: The PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry in May was 49.8%, close to the boom - bust line but still in the contraction range, a 1.8 - percentage - point MoM decrease and an 8.7% YoY increase [3] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to have a short - term range - bound movement. Attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons, macro policy changes, macro expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4] - **Tariff Policy**: The US President Trump signed an executive order to raise the import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% on June 4 [2]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including central bank announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical factors [2]. Key Events and Data Releases June 3 - Markit will release China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May at 9:45, with an expected value of 50.6 (previous: 50.4). A slightly higher value may mildly boost commodity and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [4]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary May CPI for the Eurozone at 17:00, with expected annual rates of 2.0% (previous: 2.2%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.5% (previous: 2.7%) for the core harmonized CPI [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the April unemployment rate for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected rate of 6.2% (previous: 6.2%) [6]. - The US Department of Commerce will release April factory orders at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of -3.1% (previous: 4.3%) [8]. June 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field for late May at 9:30 [9]. - ADP will release the US May ADP employment change at 20:15, with an expected increase of 115,000 (previous: 62,000). A significantly higher value may suppress gold and silver futures but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 21:45, with the overnight lending rate expected to remain at 2.75% [11]. - The Institute for Supply Management will release the US May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected value of 52 (previous: 51.6). A slightly higher value may mildly suppress gold futures [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending May 30 at 22:30. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [13]. June 5 - The Fed will release the Beige Book at 02:00 [14]. - Markit will release China's Caixin Services PMI and Composite PMI for May at 09:45, with an expected services PMI of 51.1 (previous: 50.7). A slightly higher value may mildly boost stock index and commodity futures but suppress bond futures [15]. - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15, with expected rate cuts. The main refinancing rate is expected to drop from 2.40% to 2.15%, the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.65% to 2.45% [16]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 at 20:30, with an expected number of 245,000 (previous: 240,000). A slightly higher value may boost gold and silver futures but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [17]. June 6 - The EU Statistics Bureau will release Eurozone April retail sales at 17:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous: - 0.1%) and an annual rate of 1.4% (previous: 1.5%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the final Q1 2025 GDP for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected annual rate of 0.4% (revised: 0.3%) and a quarterly rate of 1.2% (revised: 1.2%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non - farm payroll report at 20:30, with an expected seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll increase of 130,000 (previous: 177,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous: 4.2%), and an average hourly earnings annual rate of 3.7% (previous: 3.8%). A significantly lower non - farm payroll increase may boost gold and silver futures and suppress other commodity futures [20]. June 7 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will release China's May foreign exchange and gold reserves. The April foreign exchange reserves were $3282 billion, and the April gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to undergo short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui have or will shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. - **Future Focus**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]. Aluminum - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and US officials are accelerating trade negotiations. The dollar is under pressure due to tariff threats [2]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment is easing, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term. Imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase. In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY [3]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The PMI composite index in May was 49.8%, in the contraction range. The industry is in a slack season, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders [3]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: On May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 511,000 tons, showing a decline [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a range, and attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons and macro - policy changes [4]. - **Future Focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, focusing on the coordination of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, and regional policies to enhance policy effectiveness and stimulate consumption and investment [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The implementation of a more proactive macro policy requires a focus on strengthening the coordination of various policies, ensuring consistency in direction, and utilizing a "combination punch" approach to enhance policy effectiveness [1] - There is a call for significant fiscal measures, including the introduction of "real money" to support consumption initiatives such as trade-in programs for consumer goods [1] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Support - To boost consumption, it is essential to increase the availability of consumer loans and diversify financial products to better meet residents' credit needs [1] - Effective investment expansion necessitates the use of ultra-long-term special government bonds and special bonds to increase government investment scale, while also encouraging private investment through government-led initiatives and policy incentives [1] - There is a need to enhance financial support for the real economy, aiming to reduce financing costs for the real sector and provide funding assurance for stable investment [1]

近期召开的中央政治局会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策。这一重要部署，释放出我国加强逆周期调节、全力稳经济的明确信号。 中国经济具有强大的发展韧性和潜力。加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，充分释放政策效能，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性，我国经济 必将在惊涛骇浪中行稳致远。 （文章来源：经济日报） 用好用足，全面发力。今年以来财政政策靠前发力，货币政策也继续保持较强支持力度。应对外部不确 定性，我国宏观政策还有足够空间和余地。近日，人民银行加大宏观调控强度，推出一揽子货币政策措 施，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，包括降低存款准备金率、完善存款准备金制度、下调政策利 率、设立服务消费与养老再贷款等。三大类共十项措施将带动社会综合融资成本稳中有降，有效支持实 体经济稳定增长。下一步，要用好用足政策空间，不断完善政策工具箱，根据形势变化及时推出增量储 备政策，增强政策主动性、前瞻性、精准性和有效性，加强超常规逆周期调节。 协同配合，提升效能。加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，要重视加强财政、货币、就业、 ...