Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and awarded amount of 315 billion yuan. Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, indicating a total of 6000 billion yuan in reverse repos over two days to support liquidity during the Spring Festival [1][3] - The interbank market showed a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.65% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.590% [7] Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, reflecting a downward trend in bond prices [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.42%, the 10-year by 0.08%, the 5-year by 0.03%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [14] Global Macro - The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year. However, no clear signals regarding future policy direction were provided, leading to expectations of stable monetary policy in the near term [14]

环球网2月10日消息，美国总统特朗普和美联储现任主席鲍威尔之间的矛盾不断激化。据美国福克斯新 闻网当地时间9日报道，美国总统特朗普在接受该媒体采访时表示，在他的首个任期内，他在美联储主 席人选决策上犯了错误。 据CCTV国际时讯消息，当地时间1月30日早上，美国总统特朗普提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文· 沃什出任下一任美联储主席，接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔。这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场， 但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主 席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提名。 鲍威尔将于今年5月结束美联储主席任期。他虽然是特朗普任命的，但却因货币政策长期遭特朗普公开 指责。去年再度就任美国总统后，特朗普曾多次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美联储 办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 "我犯了个错误，他（鲍威尔）只是个备选，如果你要说的话。"特朗普说，"我犯了个错误，因为我的 财政部长非常非常想要他（任职），你知道，我对他的感觉不太好，但有时候会听 ...

UNforex 2月10日讯 随着美联储官员就特朗普政府关税政策公开表态，华尔街主要股指在刷新阶段性高 点后进入整理状态。关税对通胀和消费端的实际影响、劳动力市场放缓是否意味着经济动能降温，正与 即将公布的美国非农就业和CPI数据一道，成为市场重新评估政策预期的核心变量。 在政策分歧与通胀讨论交织的背景下，美股表现趋于克制。周一美股常规交易时段，道琼斯工业平均指 数小幅上涨并刷新收盘纪录，标普500指数与纳斯达克指数在科技股反弹带动下延续升势。进入盘后交 易后，美国股指期货整体小幅回落，标普500、纳斯达克100及道指期货均回调约0.1%。除科技板块 外，其余板块交投偏淡，反映出投资者在关键宏观数据公布前不愿显著增加风险敞口。 在周三非农就业报告公布前，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特提前对市场预期进行引导。他表 示，未来几个月新增就业人数的下降，主要反映人口增长放缓背景下的结构性变化，而非经济动能减 弱。根据市场一致预期，1月美国非农新增就业人数约为6.9万人，失业率预计维持在4.4%。哈塞特指 出，在生产率提升加快的情况下，维持失业率稳定所需的"盈亏平衡就业增速"已明显下降，就业数据的 解读框架正在发生 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, focusing on monetary policy and its implications for various asset markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Stance of Kevin Warsh** Warsh's monetary policy is characterized by a hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and opposing excessive quantitative easing. However, recent comments indicate a shift towards a more neutral position regarding AI's impact on inflation and neutral interest rates [1][3][4]. 2. **Impact of Warsh's Appointment on Global Asset Markets** Following Warsh's appointment, global asset markets experienced significant volatility as investors reassessed market dynamics based on his monetary policy background and experience [2]. 3. **Challenges in Asset and Balance Sheet Policy** Warsh is expected to maintain the current balance sheet policy without major adjustments. The Fed may slow down technical balance sheet expansion and face challenges in restarting balance sheet reduction and modifying regulatory terms [6][8]. 4. **Interest Rate Policy Adjustments** The likelihood of significant shifts in interest rate policy under Warsh is low. Current economic indicators show weak employment and inflation trends, limiting the Fed's ability to adopt a more hawkish or dovish stance [9][10]. 5. **Future Economic Conditions and Rate Cuts** In the absence of significant changes in economic fundamentals, the probability of substantial rate cuts is low. The Fed's decisions will depend on unemployment rates and other economic indicators [10][11][24]. 6. **Differences Between Warsh and Powell** Warsh's approach contrasts with that of former Chairman Powell, as he favors trend-based policy formulation over data dependency, which may lead to increased volatility in macroeconomic and asset markets [12]. 7. **Market Volatility and Underlying Causes** Recent market fluctuations are attributed more to deleveraging trades rather than Warsh's appointment. The bond market's response to Warsh has been relatively stable, indicating that professional investors do not expect drastic changes in monetary policy [13]. 8. **Commodity Market Trends** The commodity market is experiencing a long-term upward trend driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over fiscal sustainability, resembling the inflationary environment of the 1970s [20][22]. 9. **Oil and Precious Metals Price Projections** Oil prices are expected to rebound to $70-$75 per barrel, while gold and other precious metals are driven by investor concerns rather than cyclical pricing [17][18]. 10. **Dollar Index Forecast** The dollar index is projected to remain stable in the first half of 2026 but may weaken in the latter half due to potential changes in fiscal policy and market sentiment [27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Potential Major Events Impacting Markets** Several potential events could lead to significant market shifts, including global fiscal tightening, advancements in AI technology, changes in U.S.-China relations, and renewed central bank independence [22][23]. 2. **Long-term Neutral Interest Rate Considerations** The determination of the neutral interest rate involves both cyclical and structural factors, with current estimates around 3%. However, advancements in productivity due to AI could necessitate a reevaluation of this rate [29]. 3. **Political Influences on Financial Markets** The Trump administration's approach to influencing financial markets through administrative means rather than direct intervention in financial variables is noteworthy, as it aims to achieve political goals without disrupting market pricing [25][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the implications of Kevin Warsh's leadership at the Federal Reserve and its potential impact on various markets.

2 月利率展望：赔率阶段性不足，关注再通胀与供给扰动 20260205 摘要 12 月出口同比增长 6.6%，非美地区（如印度、欧盟、东盟）增速超 10%，出口多元化支撑稳固，预计全年出口实现温和且结构更优的正增 长。 房地产市场仍处探底阶段，新房销售和房屋竣工面积同比负增长，政策 调整观察窗口期，需关注后续地产政策推进和落地情况。 2 月政府债券供给预计达 1.56 万亿元，较 1 月增加，专项债发行量显著 提升，普通国债规模预计为 4,361 亿元，供给压力上升可能对市场产生 扰动。 央行通过流动性管理保持 2 月资金面充裕，资金利率波动小，同业存单 收益率稳定，1 月 MLF 净投放量达 10,000 亿，显示央行维护跨春节流 动性的意图。 货币政策维持适度宽松，潘行长表示降准降息仍有空间，关注央行国债 买卖操作，一季度末前后或是再次关注降准降息的重要窗口期。 地产行业目前仍处于供需两端承压状态。需求端，新房销售面积与销售额累计 同比增速依然负增长；供给端，新开工房屋面积略有小幅上涨，但房屋竣工与 施工面积跌幅扩大。因此，目前地产行业整体疲软，对经济复苏构成一定压力。 在此背景下，需要密切关注政策变化及 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have launched a package of measures to optimize refinancing, aimed at enhancing flexibility and better serving technological innovation and new productivity development. The measures emphasize support for high-quality listed companies and clarify the refinancing interval requirements for unprofitable innovative enterprises [2] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced tax incentives for cross-border e-commerce export return goods, exempting import duties and VAT for goods returned within six months due to unsold or returned reasons, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027. This policy aims to reduce costs for cross-border e-commerce enterprises and support the development of new foreign trade formats [3] Group 2: International News - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that the Federal Reserve may not quickly reduce its balance sheet, suggesting a cautious and observant approach to asset management. He mentioned that it could take up to a year for the Fed to decide on its balance sheet adjustments, alleviating concerns about rapid monetary tightening impacting market liquidity [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - On February 9, the bond market showed a warm trend, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling to 1.8000%, down 0.20 basis points. The 10-year policy bank bond yield also decreased to 1.9210%, down 1.25 basis points [9][10] - The secondary market for credit bonds saw significant price deviations, with some bonds experiencing price changes exceeding 10%. For instance, "H9 Long Control 01" fell over 16%, while "H1 Vanke 04" rose over 13% [11] Group 4: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the equity market's upward trend, with major indices rising. The China Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index increased by 1.25%, 1.16%, and 1.42%, respectively. The trading volume in the convertible bond market was 857.98 billion, down 29.57 billion from the previous trading day [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth may slow down in the coming months due to factors such as a deceleration in labor force growth and increased productivity, which could significantly impact future monetary policy paths [1][2] Employment Data - In November and December, the average monthly non-farm job additions in the U.S. were approximately 53,000, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic average of about 183,000 per month [2] - The job growth slowdown does not necessarily indicate economic weakness, as recent employment increases were partly due to rapid labor supply expansion [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The tightening of immigration policies under the Trump administration has complicated the understanding of whether the labor market cooling is due to weak demand or reduced supply [2] - Increased productivity is enhancing individual worker output, allowing the economy to maintain growth despite limited labor supply and lower monthly job additions [2] Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials are open to the "productivity explanation" for the current labor market situation, acknowledging the unusual scenario where both labor demand and supply may be declining simultaneously [3] - The Fed's policy response will depend on whether the constraints on job growth stem from demand-side weaknesses or supply-side limitations [3] Implications for Monetary Policy - If labor supply is constrained, it may lead to hiring bottlenecks and upward wage pressures, which are typically precursors to inflation, making the Fed more cautious about rate cuts [3] - Conversely, if job growth weakens due to soft demand, it may necessitate rate cuts to support economic growth and hiring [3][4] - The Fed is cautious about making short-term monetary policy decisions based on assumptions regarding productivity growth [4]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 属市场暴跌。交易员将沃什视为最终候选人中最坚定的通胀抗击者，这提高了对美 元构成支撑、削弱以美元计价黄金的货币政策预期。我们认为美国总统提名美联储 前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大 量的获利盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应， 引起了市场的踩踏。美国 12 月 JOLTs 职位空缺录得 654.2 万人，为 2020 年 9 月以 来新低。密歇根大学消费者信心调查：美国 1 年期通胀预期从 4%降至 13 个月低点 3.5%。美国的最新就业和通胀预期数据有利于推动降息。2 月 9 日美元指数收跌 0.78%，报 96.85。伊朗地缘风险持续发酵。2 月 9 日 COMEX 黄金在 5000 美元/盎司 上方窄幅波动、小幅上涨，COMEX 白银涨幅较大收盘站上 83 美元/盎司。金银暂时 未形成新的趋势方向。作为春节假期安排，上期所宣布自 2026 年 2 月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Treasury futures prices generally rose, and the 10-year treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.795%. The central bank's open market reverse repurchase had a net injection of 38 billion yuan, and the short - end Shibor varieties mostly rose, but the overnight interest rate was below 1.3%. The central bank continued to expand the scale of open - market treasury bond trading operations, and the capital market remained loose before the Spring Festival. - After three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, the Fed paused. The market expects the new - nominated Fed chairman's monetary policy to be a unique combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction". The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and US Treasury yields rebounded. - In January, the three major manufacturing PMIs showed a seasonal decline. In December, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by the decline in real estate development investment. The real estate market is still in adjustment. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit and total expenditure will remain at a necessary level. The central bank pointed out that in 2026, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The market capital is loose, and treasury futures prices continue to stabilize. It is recommended to operate cautiously before the festival [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury futures generally rose. For example, the T2603 contract rose 0.06%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of TS2603 decreased by 3,008, while that of TS2606 increased by 4,514 [2]. - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 7bp, DR007 interest rate rose 4.61bp, and GC007 interest rate rose 3.7bp [2]. - **China's Key - term Treasury Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 0.46bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 34.38bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Yields**: The US 10Y Treasury yield remained unchanged, the German 10Y Treasury yield rose 3bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury yield rose 5.3bp. The internal - external yield spreads also changed accordingly [2]. Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On February 9, the central bank carried out 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38 billion yuan [3]. - **Policy Adjustments**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges optimized a package of refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the science and technology innovation field. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments extended the tax - preferential policy for returned cross - border e - commerce export goods for two years until the end of 2027 [3]. - **Economic Data and Expectations**: The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3. The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non - farm payroll report [3].

近期全球金融市场呈现明显分化态势，道琼斯工业平均指数创下历史新高，黄金、白银等贵金属价格则 出现跳水波动，与此同时，美联储多位官员接连发声，就货币政策、劳动力市场及美元走势等核心议题 表态，引发全球投资者广泛关注。 在此背景下，美联储多位官员接连重磅发声，释放出关键货币政策信号。当地时间2月6日，旧金山联储 主席玛丽·戴利表示，为应对美国劳动力市场的疲软状况，美联储今年可能还需要进行1次或2次降息操 作。她指出，当前美国劳动者面临物价上涨侵蚀工资、新增就业机会稀缺的困境，若劳动力市场持续疲 软，实施进一步货币宽松政策将是合理选择，同时警告企业若需求不及预期，可能出现更多裁员现象。 美东时间2月9日，美联储多位官员进一步补充表态。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，特朗普政府的关税 政策对美国经济影响相当有限，且关税收入有助于改善政府财政长期前景，反驳了"关税由美国民众承 担"的普遍观点。针对当日美元指数大跌0.84%、跌破97关口的走势，米兰称，当前美元下跌幅度尚未 对货币政策产生实质性影响，对消费者通胀的影响也较为温和。同日，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克则表 示，他已开始看到人们对美元的信心产生质疑，而就业数据的波动不 ...