图 过去一周，贵金属价格剧烈波动，获利回吐和过热仓位交织导致价格从历史高位回落。美联储领导层可 能更迭，引发美国货币政策不确定性，也加剧了市场波动。 然而，支撑多年上涨行情的诸多因素—— 地缘政治风险加剧、央行加大购入力度以及投资者抛售主权债券和货币——依然存在。 ATFX：在经历了上周的历史性暴跌之后，金价连续两天上涨，周一，受美元走软至一周低位的提振， 金价上涨2%，不过今早的涨势暂缓，因为投资者在震荡的市场中获利了结，等待美国关键就业报告。 今日金价早盘一度下跌1.4%，短暂跌破每盎司5000美元，随后收复部分失地。自1月29日创下历史新高 以来，金价已下跌约10%，但今年以来仍保持较高水平。 3. 主权信用与货币价值的深层忧虑：全球范围内高企的政府债务水平，以及对主要储备货币长期购买力 的担忧，驱使全球投资者将黄金视为重要的价值储存工具和对冲资产。 本周投资者密切关注美国非农就业数据、消费者价格和首次申请失业救济人数的公布，以寻找货币政策 的新信号。市场已经预期2026年至少会降息两次，每次降息25个基点。 包括德意志银行和高盛集团在内的许多银行和资产管理公司都看好黄金价格，认为其将因这些长期需求 驱 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，有色金属板块重点公司25Q4业绩增速不一。贵金属板块当 前估值处于历史中枢下沿，板块具备持续修复的动力及空间。铜供给相对刚性，价格中枢有望持续抬 高;铝供需格局持续趋紧，价格有望延续长期上行趋势。小金属方面，镍价中枢有望上行，锂价中枢稳 中有升，而钴价预计维持强势。降息后有色金属板块估值中枢有望上移，推荐供需格局稳定的新能源制 造业。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 铜：中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在新闻发布会上表示，除了储备精炼铜之外，也可研究将贸 易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入储备范围，同时，将扩大国家铜战略储备规模，探索进行商业储备机 制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备。短期铜矿生产扰动较大、非美库存紧张下预 计铜价偏强，基本面支撑扎实，长期电网投资增长、AI数据中心增长等，叠加铜供给相对刚性，价格 中枢有望持续抬高，建议关注紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、铜陵有色、金诚信、西部矿业、河钢资源。铝：国 内产能天花板限制下供需格局持续趋紧，铝价有望延续长期上行趋势，建议关注一体化完备标的(南山 铝业、天山铝业、中国宏桥、中国铝业、新疆众和)、以及弹性标的(云铝股份、 ...

这可不是普通的职场抱怨。一位前总统，公开承认自己"犯了天大错误"，并暗示现任美联储主席正因"不听话"而遭遇政治调查——在美国政治史上，这场发 生在白宫与美联储之间的战争，已逼近摊牌时刻。 特朗普最近对福克斯直言："任命鲍威尔是个错误。"但真相远非一句后悔那么简单。时间拨回2018年，时任财长姆努钦力荐鲍威尔，特朗普点头。谁料，这 位他亲手提拔的主席，竟在利率政策上屡次"抗命"。特朗普任内多次威胁解雇他，甚至称美联储是"最大敌人"。 鲍威尔显然嗅到了危险。他近日公开警告继任者："不要卷入选举政治。"这句话，既是挣扎，也是悲鸣。当前美联储深陷两难：降息可能被批为拜登选举助 力；维持利率则可能扼杀经济。它的每一个决定，都将被放在政治放大镜下炙烤。 这场斗争的核心，远超个人恩怨。它直击一个致命问题：当中央银行的货币政策沦为政治追杀的工具，全球经济的稳定器还剩下多少可信度？历史上，政治 过度干预央行最终引爆恶性通胀的例子，并不遥远。 如今，鲍威尔的任期进入倒计时，而特朗普的攻势有增无减。这场始于会议室，升级至法庭的战争，最终会以谁的屈服收场？它又会如何重塑你我钱包里的 每一美元价值？ 你认为，中央银行应不惜一切代价保持 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 美东时间2月9日，全球资产价格出现显著波动，美元指数大幅走弱带动风险资产及贵金属价格上行。当 日美元指数大跌0.84%，跌破97关口，美股三大指数低开高走，道指再创历史新高，贵金属板块全线走 高。 美股收盘数据显示，道指收涨0.04%，标普500指数收涨0.47%，纳指收涨0.90%。大型科技股多数走 强，其中甲骨文涨幅超9%，微软、博通、AMD涨幅均超3%，英伟达、Meta涨超2%，特斯拉涨超1%。 贵金属市场中，COMEX黄金期货涨超2%，COMEX白银期货大涨8%。 针对美元大幅走弱，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，已经观察到市场对美元信心出现质疑的迹象。美 联储理事米兰则指出，当前美元下跌幅度尚未对货币政策产生实质性影响，其对消费者通胀的影响也较 为有限。米兰此前曾提及，美国经济未出现强劲价格压力，美联储2026年需要降息超过100个基点，期 待沃什担任美联储主席后的政策走向。 美国财政部长贝森特此前针对美联储缩表议题表态称，即便沃什出任美联储主席，美联储也不会迅速启 动缩表行动，预计 ...

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and awarded amount of 315 billion yuan. Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, indicating a total of 6000 billion yuan in reverse repos over two days to support liquidity during the Spring Festival [1][3] - The interbank market showed a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.65% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.590% [7] Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, reflecting a downward trend in bond prices [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.42%, the 10-year by 0.08%, the 5-year by 0.03%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [14] Global Macro - The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year. However, no clear signals regarding future policy direction were provided, leading to expectations of stable monetary policy in the near term [14]

环球网2月10日消息，美国总统特朗普和美联储现任主席鲍威尔之间的矛盾不断激化。据美国福克斯新 闻网当地时间9日报道，美国总统特朗普在接受该媒体采访时表示，在他的首个任期内，他在美联储主 席人选决策上犯了错误。 据CCTV国际时讯消息，当地时间1月30日早上，美国总统特朗普提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文· 沃什出任下一任美联储主席，接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔。这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场， 但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主 席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提名。 鲍威尔将于今年5月结束美联储主席任期。他虽然是特朗普任命的，但却因货币政策长期遭特朗普公开 指责。去年再度就任美国总统后，特朗普曾多次尝试干涉美联储货币政策决议。鲍威尔目前还因美联储 办公大楼翻修项目遭刑事调查。 "我犯了个错误，他（鲍威尔）只是个备选，如果你要说的话。"特朗普说，"我犯了个错误，因为我的 财政部长非常非常想要他（任职），你知道，我对他的感觉不太好，但有时候会听 ...

UNforex 2月10日讯 随着美联储官员就特朗普政府关税政策公开表态，华尔街主要股指在刷新阶段性高 点后进入整理状态。关税对通胀和消费端的实际影响、劳动力市场放缓是否意味着经济动能降温，正与 即将公布的美国非农就业和CPI数据一道，成为市场重新评估政策预期的核心变量。 在政策分歧与通胀讨论交织的背景下，美股表现趋于克制。周一美股常规交易时段，道琼斯工业平均指 数小幅上涨并刷新收盘纪录，标普500指数与纳斯达克指数在科技股反弹带动下延续升势。进入盘后交 易后，美国股指期货整体小幅回落，标普500、纳斯达克100及道指期货均回调约0.1%。除科技板块 外，其余板块交投偏淡，反映出投资者在关键宏观数据公布前不愿显著增加风险敞口。 在周三非农就业报告公布前，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特提前对市场预期进行引导。他表 示，未来几个月新增就业人数的下降，主要反映人口增长放缓背景下的结构性变化，而非经济动能减 弱。根据市场一致预期，1月美国非农新增就业人数约为6.9万人，失业率预计维持在4.4%。哈塞特指 出，在生产率提升加快的情况下，维持失业率稳定所需的"盈亏平衡就业增速"已明显下降，就业数据的 解读框架正在发生 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, focusing on monetary policy and its implications for various asset markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Stance of Kevin Warsh** Warsh's monetary policy is characterized by a hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and opposing excessive quantitative easing. However, recent comments indicate a shift towards a more neutral position regarding AI's impact on inflation and neutral interest rates [1][3][4]. 2. **Impact of Warsh's Appointment on Global Asset Markets** Following Warsh's appointment, global asset markets experienced significant volatility as investors reassessed market dynamics based on his monetary policy background and experience [2]. 3. **Challenges in Asset and Balance Sheet Policy** Warsh is expected to maintain the current balance sheet policy without major adjustments. The Fed may slow down technical balance sheet expansion and face challenges in restarting balance sheet reduction and modifying regulatory terms [6][8]. 4. **Interest Rate Policy Adjustments** The likelihood of significant shifts in interest rate policy under Warsh is low. Current economic indicators show weak employment and inflation trends, limiting the Fed's ability to adopt a more hawkish or dovish stance [9][10]. 5. **Future Economic Conditions and Rate Cuts** In the absence of significant changes in economic fundamentals, the probability of substantial rate cuts is low. The Fed's decisions will depend on unemployment rates and other economic indicators [10][11][24]. 6. **Differences Between Warsh and Powell** Warsh's approach contrasts with that of former Chairman Powell, as he favors trend-based policy formulation over data dependency, which may lead to increased volatility in macroeconomic and asset markets [12]. 7. **Market Volatility and Underlying Causes** Recent market fluctuations are attributed more to deleveraging trades rather than Warsh's appointment. The bond market's response to Warsh has been relatively stable, indicating that professional investors do not expect drastic changes in monetary policy [13]. 8. **Commodity Market Trends** The commodity market is experiencing a long-term upward trend driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over fiscal sustainability, resembling the inflationary environment of the 1970s [20][22]. 9. **Oil and Precious Metals Price Projections** Oil prices are expected to rebound to $70-$75 per barrel, while gold and other precious metals are driven by investor concerns rather than cyclical pricing [17][18]. 10. **Dollar Index Forecast** The dollar index is projected to remain stable in the first half of 2026 but may weaken in the latter half due to potential changes in fiscal policy and market sentiment [27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Potential Major Events Impacting Markets** Several potential events could lead to significant market shifts, including global fiscal tightening, advancements in AI technology, changes in U.S.-China relations, and renewed central bank independence [22][23]. 2. **Long-term Neutral Interest Rate Considerations** The determination of the neutral interest rate involves both cyclical and structural factors, with current estimates around 3%. However, advancements in productivity due to AI could necessitate a reevaluation of this rate [29]. 3. **Political Influences on Financial Markets** The Trump administration's approach to influencing financial markets through administrative means rather than direct intervention in financial variables is noteworthy, as it aims to achieve political goals without disrupting market pricing [25][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the implications of Kevin Warsh's leadership at the Federal Reserve and its potential impact on various markets.

2 月利率展望：赔率阶段性不足，关注再通胀与供给扰动 20260205 摘要 12 月出口同比增长 6.6%，非美地区（如印度、欧盟、东盟）增速超 10%，出口多元化支撑稳固，预计全年出口实现温和且结构更优的正增 长。 房地产市场仍处探底阶段，新房销售和房屋竣工面积同比负增长，政策 调整观察窗口期，需关注后续地产政策推进和落地情况。 2 月政府债券供给预计达 1.56 万亿元，较 1 月增加，专项债发行量显著 提升，普通国债规模预计为 4,361 亿元，供给压力上升可能对市场产生 扰动。 央行通过流动性管理保持 2 月资金面充裕，资金利率波动小，同业存单 收益率稳定，1 月 MLF 净投放量达 10,000 亿，显示央行维护跨春节流 动性的意图。 货币政策维持适度宽松，潘行长表示降准降息仍有空间，关注央行国债 买卖操作，一季度末前后或是再次关注降准降息的重要窗口期。 地产行业目前仍处于供需两端承压状态。需求端，新房销售面积与销售额累计 同比增速依然负增长；供给端，新开工房屋面积略有小幅上涨，但房屋竣工与 施工面积跌幅扩大。因此，目前地产行业整体疲软，对经济复苏构成一定压力。 在此背景下，需要密切关注政策变化及 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have launched a package of measures to optimize refinancing, aimed at enhancing flexibility and better serving technological innovation and new productivity development. The measures emphasize support for high-quality listed companies and clarify the refinancing interval requirements for unprofitable innovative enterprises [2] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced tax incentives for cross-border e-commerce export return goods, exempting import duties and VAT for goods returned within six months due to unsold or returned reasons, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027. This policy aims to reduce costs for cross-border e-commerce enterprises and support the development of new foreign trade formats [3] Group 2: International News - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that the Federal Reserve may not quickly reduce its balance sheet, suggesting a cautious and observant approach to asset management. He mentioned that it could take up to a year for the Fed to decide on its balance sheet adjustments, alleviating concerns about rapid monetary tightening impacting market liquidity [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - On February 9, the bond market showed a warm trend, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling to 1.8000%, down 0.20 basis points. The 10-year policy bank bond yield also decreased to 1.9210%, down 1.25 basis points [9][10] - The secondary market for credit bonds saw significant price deviations, with some bonds experiencing price changes exceeding 10%. For instance, "H9 Long Control 01" fell over 16%, while "H1 Vanke 04" rose over 13% [11] Group 4: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the equity market's upward trend, with major indices rising. The China Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index increased by 1.25%, 1.16%, and 1.42%, respectively. The trading volume in the convertible bond market was 857.98 billion, down 29.57 billion from the previous trading day [21][22]