Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a slight increase but remain capped below the $5200 mark, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, while the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on monetary policy continues to impose constraints on gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The escalation of military deployments in the Middle East and rising tensions ahead of US-Iran nuclear negotiations have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1]. - The US has imposed a 10% tariff on most imported goods, with plans to increase it to 15%, contributing to a more tense global trade environment and potentially disrupting supply chains [2]. - Historical trends suggest that increased trade tensions often lead investors to seek safe-haven assets, which could support gold demand [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve officials have maintained a relatively stable monetary policy, which has limited the rapid upward movement of gold prices [2]. - The market is currently in a balancing phase, with macroeconomic factors providing long-term support for gold, while the Fed's stable policy and market sentiment fluctuations may slow short-term price increases [2]. - As long as the core bullish factors remain intact, the overall upward trend for gold is expected to continue, albeit with potential short-term fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - The daily and 4-hour structures for gold maintain a bullish trend, with significant support established above $5100, indicating strong bullish defense [3]. - Key price behavior shows a slowdown in upward momentum without any reversal signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62, indicating a strong market but not in an extreme overbought condition [3]. - Immediate resistance is noted at $5220, with potential further testing at $5246 if this level is breached, while support levels are identified at $5150 and $5100, with a critical long-term support line at the 200-period moving average around $4930 [3].

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) appreciated by 0.16% against the US dollar (USD), reaching around 0.5980, primarily due to a weakening USD following President Trump's State of the Union address [2] - The USD index (DXY) fell by 0.15% to 97.75, influenced by Trump's emphasis on tariff policies and the market's mixed response to his economic achievements [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the coming months, contributing to the stability of the USD, especially in light of strong employment data [2] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Bremmer indicated that while the New Zealand economy is recovering, there are no strong inflationary pressures, leading to weak expectations for interest rate hikes [3] - New Zealand's monetary policy remains relatively accommodative, but global economic changes could impact the NZD, particularly as it is a risk-sensitive currency [3] - The RBNZ's optimistic stance on economic recovery supports the NZD's strength, despite the potential for adjustments due to global demand fluctuations [3] Group 3 - The current global economic landscape is complex, with Trump's economic policies potentially exerting short-term pressure on the USD, while the Federal Reserve's position provides strong support for the currency [4] - Despite good economic growth in New Zealand, the central bank's moderate policies are likely to keep the NZD's volatility low in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 600 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month due to 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1] - The continuation of net liquidity injection indicates a supportive monetary policy stance, which is expected to enhance banks' credit issuance capabilities and support government bond issuance, thereby stabilizing market expectations [3] - The PBOC plans to issue 500 billion yuan in central bank bills in Hong Kong, aiming to enrich high-credit-quality RMB financial products and improve the RMB yield curve in Hong Kong [5][6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation on February 25, 2026, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1] - In February, 300 billion MLF will mature, leading to a net liquidity injection of 900 billion, which is slightly lower than the previous month's 1 trillion, indicating a continued high level of net liquidity [1] - The average monthly net liquidity injection for mid-2025 was 4.134 trillion, highlighting the ongoing trend of substantial liquidity support [1] Group 2 - To ensure funding for major projects and stabilize macroeconomic operations, the new local government debt limit for 2026 has been set early, indicating continued fiscal efforts [2] - The completion of 500 billion new policy financial tools in October 2025, along with interest rate cuts and expansions in January 2026, is expected to lead to significant credit issuance in the first quarter of this year [2] - The PBOC's actions are aimed at supporting government bond issuance and stabilizing credit support from banks, signaling a continued supportive monetary policy stance [2]

从货币政策层面来看，美联储官员的近期表态，为美元指数提供了一定支撑。波士顿联邦储备银行负责人柯林斯周二公开表示，当前阶段维持利率区间稳定 是较为合适的选择；里士满联邦储备银行负责人巴金也指出，现有货币政策能够较好应对经济前景面临的风险。多位美联储政策制定者传递出维持利率稳 定、暂缓调整政策的信号，整体偏向稳健，这类表态有助于稳定市场对美元的信心，在一定程度上限制了美元指数的下跌空间。 美元指数（DXY）作为衡量美元对一篮子六种主要国际货币比价的核心指标，近期在国际汇市呈现弱势整理态势。周三亚洲交易时段，该指数围绕 97.85 水 平窄幅波动，整体交投情绪偏向谨慎，市场参与者正等待关键信息指引，以判断美元指数后续运行方向。 当前美元指数的弱势表现，与多重外部因素存在直接关联。近期美国相关贸易政策调整带来的不确定性，持续影响市场对美元资产的配置偏好。政策层面的 频繁变动，使得市场对美元的稳定性预期有所下降，部分资金选择暂时观望，进而对美元形成阶段性抛售压力，这也是美元指数维持弱势的重要原因之一。 周三市场的核心关注点，集中在美联储官员施密德与穆萨勒姆的后续讲话。市场参与者希望通过两位官员的发言，获取更多关于货币政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown significant volatility after the Spring Festival, with international gold prices briefly exceeding $5000 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices also reached unprecedented levels. However, a short-term price correction occurred during the market's liquidity decline, leading to a cautious investor sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Key factors influencing gold prices include macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and seasonal consumption patterns. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a core variable affecting gold prices, with a weaker dollar providing support for gold [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and strained US-Iran relations, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks, including China, have been increasing their gold reserves, which supports long-term gold prices [3]. - Seasonal trends indicate a post-Spring Festival decline in gold consumption, leading to inventory pressure on retailers and downward price adjustments. Historical data shows that gold prices often fluctuate more than 15% in the 13 weeks following the festival, typically resulting in a "post-festival correction" [3]. Group 2: Short-term Risks and Opportunities - Short-term risks include a decline in market demand after the festival and policy uncertainties, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices. If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance or geopolitical tensions ease, significant price corrections could occur [5]. - Opportunities may arise if gold prices retreat to key support levels, such as around 1090 CNY per gram, potentially creating a buying opportunity. Smaller gold items, like zodiac-themed pieces, are gaining popularity among younger consumers due to their lower total price and emotional value [5]. Group 3: Long-term Value Considerations - Gold is viewed as an important asset for hedging against inflation and systemic risks, particularly in an uncertain economic environment. For consumers with a holding period of 3 to 5 years, the likelihood of achieving positive long-term returns is high [6]. - Consumers should be cautious of brand premium traps, as gold jewelry often includes high craftsmanship costs, which may significantly reduce actual returns upon resale [6]. Group 4: Consumer Guidance - For consumers with immediate needs, such as weddings or gifts, it is advisable to choose small classic styles weighing 1 to 3 grams, which are affordable and diverse, thus minimizing the risk of high-price purchases [7]. - Investment-oriented consumers should prioritize low-premium, high-liquidity investment tools like bank gold bars or gold ETFs, using gold jewelry only as a supplementary investment to avoid erosion of actual returns due to high premiums [8]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Overall, the gold market is expected to remain in a phase of adjustment post-Spring Festival, facing short-term pressure from declining demand. However, medium to long-term support from safe-haven demand and central bank purchases limits the downside potential [9]. - Timing recommendations suggest waiting for prices to correct to the 1090 to 1100 CNY per gram range before gradually entering the market to avoid high-price traps [10]. - Product selection should focus on small, aesthetically pleasing items that meet both aesthetic and emotional needs while maintaining value [11].

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bond Daily [1] - Date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher due to uncertainties in tariffs during the holiday, the flat LPR quote in line with expectations, and the lack of significant loosening of funds. The bond market may experience weak and volatile trends. [8][12] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher due to tariff uncertainties, flat LPR quotes, and tight funds. [8] Interest Rate Bonds - Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds fluctuated slightly within 1bp, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rising 0.55bp to 1.783% at 16:30. [9] Money Market - The inter - bank money market was in a tight balance during the tax period. The net reverse repurchase in the open - market was 92.64 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index rose slightly, the overnight DR rate rose 5.5bp to 1.3674%, the 7 - day fund rate rose 23.34bp to around 1.55%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped slightly to 1.56%. [10] Conclusion - Short - term impact on China is limited after Trump's new tariff plan considering the cancelled IEEPA tariffs, and there is no need for urgent monetary policy adjustment. After the Spring Festival, institutions may have profit - taking needs, and the supply pressure of government bonds will increase. The bond market may be weak and volatile as the market may focus on holiday economic data and policies in March, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts is not strong. [11][12] Group 4: Industry News - The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed by the US government under the IEEPA are illegal. The US CBP will stop collecting IEEPA - based tariffs from February 24. The European Parliament postponed the vote on the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned countries against using the ruling to "play tricks". [13] - Trump said reports of possible war with Iran were false. Fed Governor Waller said a strong February employment data may lead to a pause in interest - rate hikes. [14] - Xi Jinping's important article in the 4th issue of Qiushi Magazine emphasizes key economic tasks in 2026, including promoting domestic demand, boosting consumption, and stabilizing investment. [15] Group 5: Data Overview Treasury Bond Futures - Data on trading of Treasury bond futures contracts on February 24, including prices, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] Money Market - Charts showing changes in inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure and trends. [28][33] Derivatives Market - Charts of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves. [38]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 02 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 美国联邦最高法院裁定特朗普政府无权援引《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA) 开征关税，而特朗普政府在取消 IEPPA 关税的同时宣布开征 122 条款临时关税且 威胁加征更多关税，国际贸易形势的混乱势必带来更多避险需求并抑制经济增长 前景，加上美伊冲突一触即发且俄乌谈判毫无进展，来自宏观市场和地缘政治的 避险需求推动伦敦黄金企稳回升至 5150 美元/盎司上方。我们判断贵金属中长期 上涨驱动力不变，贵金属板块已有从 1 月底暴跌中恢复的迹象，建议投资者继续 持偏多思路参与交易；但波动性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a significant liquidity injection through a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1][3][4]. Group 1: MLF Operations and Liquidity - The PBOC will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on February 25, following the maturity of 300 billion yuan in MLF this month, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan [1][3]. - February's MLF operations represent a smaller increase compared to the previous month's 700 billion yuan, but the total net liquidity injection for February is 900 billion yuan, continuing a trend of high liquidity levels [3][4]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at ensuring sufficient funding for key projects and stabilizing macroeconomic operations, especially with the early issuance of local government bonds for 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's increased liquidity measures may reduce the immediate need for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, indicating a period of observation for monetary policy [6][7]. - The market anticipates that the ongoing liquidity supply will support stable conditions for government bond issuance and maintain credit support from banks [4][6]. - The overall economic outlook suggests that while inflation may remain low in the first half of the year, there could be a gradual recovery in producer prices (PPI) and potential risks for interest rates later in the year [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The precious metals market is volatile. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver should be carefully participated in. The copper and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Alumina prices may have potential upward drivers. Lead is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and zinc should be traded within a range. Carbonate lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is recommended to be bought on dips. For the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see, with radical investors considering short - term long positions in some contracts. In the agricultural product market, different products have different trends and trading strategies. In the energy and chemical industry, different products also have corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand situations [1][2][3][5][6][8]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold and silver prices fell in the night session yesterday. Gold fell by 5142 dollars/ounce, and silver fell by 1.24% to 87 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump's "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday, and inflation - related statements were made by Fed officials. Domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventory changes occurred in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious in participating in the silver market [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices strengthened significantly in the night session yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Trump's plan to use AI to set reference prices for key minerals may intensify concerns. The demand shows certain characteristics such as spot premiums and post - festival inventory accumulation [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work, US tariff policies, and overseas production capacity changes [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.42% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is generally loose, but there may be upward drivers, and the upward space depends on the marginal change of the supply - demand pattern [3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On February 24, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24625 yuan/ton and 16670 yuan/ton respectively, with different price changes compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For lead, the processing fee at the mine end is low, production decreased in February, and demand is limited. For zinc, the processing fee is also low, production decreased seasonally, and the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short lead on rallies and trade zinc within the range of 23500 - 25500 yuan/ton [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 164,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.52% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of lithium - related products increased. Supply decreased in February, and demand also decreased seasonally. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1 [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to concerns about lithium ore export blockades and good expectations for material production in March [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices strengthened significantly yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and there are concerns about Indonesian policies. The demand shows strong premiums and increased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar 2605 closed at 3030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The demand for building materials is weak, but supply decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and exports are high. There is significant inventory accumulation during the festival [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in rebar 2605. The reference range for RB05 is 3000 - 3060 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 closed at 743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. Port inventory is high, and there are structural contradictions [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 735 - 765 [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal 2605 closed at 1108.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent plan. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in coking coal 2605. The reference range for JM05 is 1080 - 1140 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean crushing is strong, and export concerns are alleviated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans will enter a volatile period, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market is also volatile, and attention should be paid to customs policies and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, and most spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. However, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rises. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and port inventories are low, but downstream is in a loss state [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the Spring Festival, deep - processing enterprises in North China will replenish inventory, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell yesterday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is in the late stage of seasonal production reduction, and the demand decreased in February [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are weak. The resonance of late - stage seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectations is weakened. An inverse hedging strategy can be adopted. Attention should be paid to subsequent production and biodiesel policies [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5252 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the pricing of the northern hemisphere's production increase is completed, and the focus is on Brazil's new - season production expectations. Domestically, the supply is more relaxed, and the inventory will reach a high level after March [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated and closed flat. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose to a recent high [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Globally, the cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% in 26/27, and consumption and exports are expected to increase. In the US, imports from India increased. Domestically, the rising ICE cotton price helps the domestic cotton price strengthen [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and some spot prices increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The demand is weakening, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Industrial customers are advised to pay attention to hedging opportunities on rallies [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices weakened across the board [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonally, the slaughter volume will increase as the upstream and downstream resume work. The supply is strong and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival, and both futures and spot prices are expected to be weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE rose slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China is 6640 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is relieved as there is no new device put into operation in the first half of the year, and some existing devices reduce production or stop. The import window is closed, and the demand is weak currently but will enter the peak season in March and April [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate strongly, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran incident [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4963, an increase of 0.6% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory, with large supply and low demand as downstream factories have not resumed work. The real estate market is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is 933 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PTA in East China is 5285 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 62 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high level, and attention should be paid to seasonal maintenance. The supply of PTA is at a medium level, and the polyester factory load is at a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is not large, and the profit of polyester products has improved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the view of long - term allocation of PX and pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has seasonal inventory accumulation, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. The processing fee has reached a high level, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1061, an increase of 1.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass inventory increased during the holiday, and the price is stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream is not yet in operation, and the price is affected by macro - expectations [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to buy 09 and sell 01 for a positive spread [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6620 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the supply pressure increases as new device put - into - operation decreases and some devices stop unexpectedly. The demand is low currently as downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate. The upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran incident. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but the contradiction is still large, and it is recommended to short on rallies [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 3648 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 86 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is relieved as some devices are transferred or under maintenance. The import supply decreases. The inventory in some ports in East China has increased to 900,000 tons, and the polyester load is seasonally low. The overall inventory pressure is not large [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Inventory accumulation is expected, and de - stocking may start in March. The current valuation is low, and attention should be paid to phased long - position opportunities [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices have been fluctuating recently as the market is waiting for the result of the US - Iran negotiation on the 26th. The current oil price contains a risk premium of about 10 dollars/barrel [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of Russian oil may face pressure due to EU policies, but the loading volume remains stable. The short - term core factor is the US - Iran geopolitical risk. In the medium - term, the production capacity of some countries is continuously released [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current trading core is the US - Iran geopolitical risk, with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait for the oil price to reach a high point and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [10]. Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rose significantly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 7700 yuan/ton, and the overseas price is stable with a slight increase. The import window is closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. The downstream enterprise inventory is high, and the downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, pure benzene will fluctuate strongly due to inventory accumulation and marginal improvement in supply - demand and geopolitical factors. Styrene will fluctuate as the inventory is normal, the basis is strong, and the supply increases while the demand decreases [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1184, an increase of 1.9% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is weak as there is a production - reduction expectation for photovoltaic glass and float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply increases and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [10].