最近，国际市场上关于人民币升值的讨论越来越热烈。 高盛在12月9日的报告中指出人民币被低估约25%，IMF也建议中国让货币升值以刺激内需。 国内甚 至出现了"1美元兑4元人民币"的激进观点。 但这场看似宏大的经济议题，背后却关乎普通人的饭碗——人民币若快速升值，出口企业的薄利可能被击穿，而你的工资、加班费甚至工作岗位，或许会成 为代价。 人民币升值最直接的影响是进口商品更便宜。 例如，中国石化曾测算，若人民币升值5%，其进口石油成本可减少逾1亿美元。 留学生家庭换10万美元能省 下数万元，海淘族也能用更少的钱买到海外商品。 2025年12月，人民币对美元汇率徘徊在7.04附近，若升至6.8，进口高端设备、原材料的企业将直接受 益。 但硬币的另一面是出口企业的困境。 中国制造业平均净利润仅3?%，如创维集团曾公开表示，人民币升值10%会导致出口订单流失，因为提价1美元都可能 失去国际市场竞争力。 2025年前11个月，中国贸易顺差超1万亿美元，但背后是"以价换量"的竞争模式。 若汇率短期内升至6.5，许多劳动密集型企业将面临亏损。 人民币升值对就业的影响并非均匀分布。 根据CGE模型模拟，人民币升值幅度与就业总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The former mayor Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB may appreciate from around 7.0 to approximately 6.0 against the USD over the next decade, indicating that the same amount of RMB will exchange for more USD internationally, which will lower costs for consumers and businesses [1][12]. Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Transformation - Over the past decade, China's manufacturing sector has undergone a significant transformation, with its industrial added value accounting for 32% of the global total, establishing a "one-third" global structure [3]. - The nature of export goods has changed, with 60% of China's exports now being high-end equipment and electronic products, and industrial manufactured goods making up 90% of total exports [3]. - China has developed global competitive advantages in five key sectors: automotive, shipbuilding, high-speed rail, power equipment, and renewable energy, particularly in photovoltaics [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - China has maintained an average of $120 billion in actual foreign investment annually over the past decade, doubling the total from ten years ago, with a trend of fewer projects but larger individual investments in high-tech and capital-intensive fields [3][5]. - Foreign enterprises contribute approximately 30% of China's export value, with a 50% share in high-value-added equipment and electronic product exports [5]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Chain Completeness - China is the only country with a complete industrial classification across all categories, allowing for a robust domestic supply chain that enhances resilience and cluster effects [5]. - The proportion of processing trade in exports has decreased to below 20%, with over 80% of export products now having a domestic value-added share exceeding 80% [5][6]. Group 4: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The shift from low-value processing to high-value embedded exports is a core indicator of the strengthening of China's foreign trade, providing fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [6]. - A strategic choice to promote moderate appreciation of the RMB is seen as beneficial for enhancing purchasing power and balancing domestic and international markets [8]. - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate while promoting internationalization, which will enhance the currency's attractiveness as a reserve and pricing currency [8][10]. Group 5: Future Trade Structure - China aims to reduce price competition in exports and enhance brand value, focusing on high-quality rather than low-cost products [10]. - The goal is to develop a balanced trade structure, with services trade expected to account for 20% of total trade by 2040, aligning with global averages [10]. - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to exhibit "two-way fluctuations," with the central bank equipped with various tools to manage excessive market volatility [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is not primarily driven by "settlement" but rather influenced by a weaker USD and central bank interventions, with settlement rates showing a decline rather than an increase [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation and Settlement - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated significantly by 1.42% against the USD, while the USD index only weakened by 0.34%. This has sparked discussions about a potential "year-end settlement wave" [3][4]. - Despite the RMB's appreciation, the settlement rate has decreased from 63.1% in September to 54.1% in October and 52.0% in November, indicating that the expected settlement wave has not materialized [3][4][8]. - Various indicators suggest that a settlement wave typically leads to higher swap points, increased RMB transaction volumes, and reduced foreign exchange deposits. However, since November, swap point spreads have decreased from 97 pips to 36 pips, and foreign exchange deposits have continued to grow [3][4][19]. Group 2: Year-End Settlement Patterns - Historically, "year-end settlement" tends to occur in December due to increased current account income, but improvements in settlement rates are not significant. The growth in settlement amounts is attributed to concentrated export receipts in Q4, significant increases in primary and secondary income, and slight increases in settlement rates [4][19]. - The changes in year-end settlement rates are influenced by prior RMB performance and the timing of the Spring Festival. When the RMB strengthens, the selling rate typically declines, while improvements in settlement rates often lag by 1-2 quarters [4][55]. Group 3: Potential for RMB to Break "7" - A delayed settlement wave may provide some short-term support for the RMB, with historical data indicating that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, settlement rates tend to improve. The upcoming Spring Festival may also extend this improvement into January [4][77]. - However, risks associated with a potential USD rebound and central bank interventions may affect the pace at which the RMB breaks the "7" level. Current non-commercial short positions in the USD have reached a record high, indicating a risk of reversal [4][88].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is not primarily driven by "settlement" but rather influenced by a weaker USD and central bank interventions, with settlement rates showing a decline rather than an increase [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation and Settlement - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated significantly by 1.42% against the USD, while the USD index has only weakened by 0.34%. This has sparked discussions about a potential "year-end settlement" [3][8]. - Despite the RMB's appreciation, the settlement rate has decreased from 63.1% in September to 54.1% in October and further to 52.0% in November, indicating that the expected settlement surge has not materialized [3][8]. - Various indicators suggest that a settlement surge typically leads to higher swap points, increased RMB transaction volumes, and reduced foreign exchange deposits. However, since November, swap point spreads have decreased from 97 pips to 36 pips, and foreign exchange deposits have continued to grow [3][19]. Group 2: Year-End Settlement Patterns - Historically, "year-end settlement" tends to occur in December due to increased current account income, but improvements in settlement rates are not significant. The growth in settlement amounts is attributed to concentrated export receipts, increased primary and secondary income, and a slight rise in settlement rates [4][43]. - The changes in year-end settlement rates are influenced by prior RMB performance and the timing of the Chinese New Year. Typically, when the RMB strengthens, the selling rate declines, while improvements in settlement rates lag by 1-2 quarters [4][55]. Group 3: Potential for RMB to Break "7" - A delayed settlement surge may provide some short-term support for the RMB, with historical data indicating that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, settlement rates often improve. The upcoming Chinese New Year may also extend this improvement into January [5][112]. - However, risks of a USD rebound and central bank interventions may affect the pace at which the RMB breaks the "7" level. Current non-commercial short positions in the USD are at a record high, indicating potential reversal risks [5][88].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate further, potentially entering the "6 era" in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations [5][7] - Recent trends show that exporters are increasingly opting for immediate currency settlement upon receipt of payments to mitigate losses from currency fluctuations, particularly in light of the yuan's recent appreciation [1][3] - The yuan has reached a 14-month high, which poses challenges for small and medium-sized export enterprises, as they may face immediate currency exchange losses and potential price competitiveness issues [1][5] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported a slight depreciation of the yuan against the US dollar, with the central parity rate set at 7.0572 yuan per dollar, reflecting a decrease of 22 basis points from the previous trading day [4] - Analysts suggest that the seasonal increase in currency settlement demand towards the end of the year may contribute to a stronger yuan, as exporters typically need to settle accounts to pay year-end bonuses [7][9] - The overall trade environment is expected to remain stable, with the central bank's recent adjustments indicating a focus on aligning the yuan's exchange rate with economic fundamentals rather than promoting rapid appreciation [9][10] Group 3 - China's foreign trade maintained positive growth, with total trade value reaching 41.21 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, driven by a 6.2% rise in exports [8] - The shift from price competition to brand and technology diversification is anticipated as companies adapt to exchange rate pressures, aligning with government initiatives to support service exports and digital trade [8][9] - The recent increase in the yuan's value is seen as beneficial for importers, enhancing purchasing power and potentially lowering costs for raw materials and consumer goods, which aligns with China's strategy to boost domestic consumption [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is approaching the critical exchange rate of 7 against the US Dollar (USD), with current rates indicating a strong upward trend, making a breach of this level likely imminent [1][5]. Exchange Rate Trends - The Yuan has experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year, starting at 7.33 CNY per USD in early 2025, dropping to a low of 7.48 CNY due to trade tensions, and then rebounding to a current rate of approximately 7.03 CNY, representing an overall appreciation of about 4% since the beginning of the year [3][6]. - As of December 22, the Yuan continues to appreciate slowly, with the latest exchange rate at 0.1420, indicating a steady upward movement [5]. Factors Driving Appreciation - Three main factors are contributing to the Yuan's appreciation: 1. The US Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which have lowered borrowing costs and weakened the USD. The Fed has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points over the year, with expectations for further cuts in the near future [9][11]. 2. A year-end trend where companies are converting USD to CNY to avoid losses from currency depreciation, leading to increased demand for the Yuan [15][16]. 3. The need for a strong Yuan to support its internationalization, as many countries are moving away from reliance on the USD, making a stable and appreciating Yuan more attractive for trade settlements [18][20]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is increasingly bullish on the Yuan, with both onshore and offshore rates reaching 14-month highs, indicating strong expectations for further appreciation [5][6].

Group 1 - The prediction of a ten-year appreciation cycle for the Renminbi (RMB) is expected to significantly enhance purchasing power, benefiting consumers and the economy as a whole [1] - A stable appreciation of the RMB will not adversely affect China's exports, as the country's manufacturing efficiency and unique products will continue to attract global demand [3][4] - The appreciation of the RMB will lead to lower import costs for essential commodities and industrial components, resulting in cheaper consumer goods and stimulating domestic consumption [4] Group 2 - The potential for the RMB to appreciate will help reveal the true value of China's GDP, reducing the perceived gap with the U.S. GDP, which is inflated by its accounting methods [6][8] - The difference in GDP calculation methods between China and the U.S. highlights the more realistic representation of economic performance in China, as it is based on actual production rather than spending [8]

1、注意政策节奏微调向上 今天国内市场的热度有所恢复，到底怎样看待这波来回震荡的12月份？转机何时会来？我们一起根据今 天最新的消息做跟进。 首先，我们先搭建一个大画面：整个国内股票市场的方向由几大因素决定。我们将其归类如下：第一重 要的是政策的力度与节奏；第二最直接的影响因素是资金层面——资金愿不愿意在此处加仓；第三则是 宏观基本面，或某些热门产业是否出现持续的现象级好产品与好消息。我们按这三条逻辑线一一寻找线 索。 第一条是政策层面。最近一周，我们为大家聚焦的正是政策方向的动向。几天前，我们已提前聊到一 些"微调"信号。千万别因"微调"二字就轻视其分量：自12月初两场重要会议结束后，市场情绪一直紧 绷，对政策极度敏感；此时若出现向宽松或积极方向的微调，市场必会给出反应。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、注意政策节奏微调向上 2、人民币升值预示着什么？看官方背景专家的发言 3、科技、消费、新基建机会如何？ 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信：miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the RMB is becoming increasingly evident, with predictions that the exchange rate against the USD will rise from 7.0 to around 6.0 over the next decade, presenting both opportunities and challenges for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China [1]. Group 1: Impact of RMB Appreciation on SMEs - The impact of RMB appreciation varies significantly among different types of SMEs. Import-dependent companies, such as those in the paper industry, will benefit as their raw material costs decrease by 0.8-1.2 percentage points for every 1% appreciation of the RMB [3]. - Conversely, export-oriented companies, like those in the textile and apparel sector, will face challenges, with a 1% appreciation leading to a 0.5-0.8 percentage point decrease in price competitiveness [3]. - Cross-border e-commerce firms may emerge as the biggest winners, with RMB appreciation expected to lower overseas procurement costs by 10-15% by 2030, significantly enhancing profit margins for SMEs in this sector [3]. Group 2: Strategies for SMEs to Adapt - SMEs need to establish systematic risk management mechanisms to cope with exchange rate fluctuations. Basic tools like forward foreign exchange contracts can help mitigate unexpected losses, as demonstrated by a stationery export company that avoided losses through a 12-month forward contract [4]. - A proactive strategy involves adjusting business structures. For instance, a lighting company shifted from OEM to self-branded exports, reducing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on profits from 8% to below 3% [4]. - Digital transformation is crucial, with SMEs leveraging big data to predict demand changes in different currency zones, leading to a 37% year-on-year increase in exports to ASEAN markets [4]. Group 3: Policy Opportunities for SMEs - The internationalization of the RMB offers significant advantages, with over 80 countries incorporating it into their foreign exchange reserves. SMEs can reduce exchange costs and avoid third-party currency risks through cross-border RMB settlements, as seen in an electronic components company that cut its exchange costs from 3.2% to 0.5% [5]. - Policy adjustments in the consumer sector, such as raising minimum wage standards and implementing paid leave, may increase labor costs but also stimulate consumption upgrades. A home furnishings company capitalized on this trend by transitioning to smart home solutions, resulting in a 210% increase in average transaction value [5]. - Financial support for innovation is also noteworthy, with some export tax refund resources being redirected to innovation. A biotechnology company successfully increased its R&D investment from 5% to 12% by applying for innovation funds, leading to three core technology patents [5]. Group 4: Economic Significance of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB signifies a critical transition in China's economic development stage. SMEs are encouraged to proactively adapt to this trend, transforming challenges into opportunities for upgrading and enhancing product value and trade structure [6].

早 间 ， 在 岸 人 民 币 对 美 元 汇 率 最 高 升 至 7.0 4 0 5 ， 创 2 0 2 4 年 1 0 月 8 日 以 来 新 高 ， 截 至 发 稿 ， 报 7.0 4 0 8 。 | < W | | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDCNY.IB | | | | | 7.0408 | | 前收 | 7.0410 | 开盘 | 7.0408 | | | -0.0002 | 0.00% | 楽市 | 7.0409 | 买入 | 7.0408 | | | 最高 | 7.0420 | 今年来 | -3.53% | 20日 | -0.91% | | | 最低 | 7.0405 | 10日 | -0.43% | 60日 | -1.01% | | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 車名 | (0) | | 音加 | | | | | | | | 7.0415 | | | | | | 0.01% | | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 7.040 ...