港股三大指数集体低开，恒指开跌0.53%，恒科指开跌0.52%，国企指数开跌0.55%。 盘面上，中资券商股再度活跃，国泰君安国际涨超14%，弘业期货涨超5%。周六福上市首日开涨 11.25%。 后市研判 浦银国际指出，当前恒生指数的前瞻市盈率已达10.3倍，已经高于4月2日特朗普宣布"对等关税"前的水 平。预计港股阶段性估值修复或已基本完成， 估值进一步提升或需新的催化剂。 华泰证券认为，三季度港股或从此前上行趋势转为阶段震荡，但增配逻辑依然不改，因此逢低买入并持 有依然是可行操作。具体配置上，建议逢低增配科技(科技升级趋势下的硬科技，互联网及AI)、消费 (地产周期下半段的消费潜力修复，如互联网消费，医药，大众消费及农林牧渔等)，大金融(香港本地股 及中资股)等板块。 高盛表示，维持对港股的超配建议，国经济增长短期仍较有韧性，今年下半年政策对冲会明显加码。 国金证券指出，今年港股整体表现突出，各种板块、概念层出不穷，底层逻辑来自于便宜资产的长期低 估，大量内地优质资产在港IPO，提升了港股的资产质量，吸引了全球流动资金的关注、加持。另外， 去美元化的全球投资策略和美国降息预期对港股的流动性利好。据此我们对 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, has led to market fluctuations, but risk assets have rebounded after initial declines [1][2] - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, peaked at 22.17 during the conflict, significantly lower than the 52.33 recorded during previous trade tensions [2] - The conflict has resulted in a temporary ceasefire, with both Iran and Israel indicating a reduction in hostilities, which may stabilize market conditions [2] Group 2 - The "see-saw" effect between risk assets and safe-haven assets is evident, with U.S. stocks rebounding due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions, while gold and oil prices have retreated from highs [3] - As of June 23, the largest gold ETF, SPDR, held 957.4 tons of gold, approaching its previous high of 959.17 tons, indicating a gradual recovery in gold investment demand [3] - Historical trends suggest that U.S. stocks and the dollar may not move in tandem, with potential for both to decline simultaneously, challenging traditional market relationships [3][4] Group 3 - The current weak dollar may not benefit the U.S. economy as it has in the past, due to concerns over U.S. debt and trade policies, which could lead to capital outflows [4] - The weak dollar reflects market apprehension regarding U.S. fiscal policies, and without counteracting measures, it may accompany declines in U.S. stocks [4] Group 4 - Concerns over oversupply in the oil market are still present, but geopolitical tensions have caused temporary price spikes [5] - Iran's oil exports are currently at 1.6 million barrels per day, which has been factored into market pricing, limiting its impact on global supply [5] - Historical threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz have not materialized due to practical constraints, suggesting that the oil market may stabilize despite geopolitical risks [5] Group 5 - The uncertainty in financial markets since the U.S. tariff increases in April has led to sustained support for gold prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical crises and a weakening dollar [6] - The lack of new catalysts for gold price increases, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, may result in a period of high volatility without significant upward movement [6] - Investors are encouraged to utilize futures and options to hedge risks and capture opportunities in the gold market [6]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 在美国和卡塔尔的斡旋下以色列和伊朗勉强同意停火协议，同时美联储主席 鲍威尔国会作证时表示经济就业韧性使得美联储有条件继续按兵不动以观察关税 政策对通胀的真实影响，隔夜伦敦黄金一度回调至 3295 美元/盎司；但消息称美 国空袭并未摧毁伊朗的核心核能力而仅可能将其进程延后数月，且鲍威尔表示若 通胀确实受控则美联储愿意更早而不是更晚降息，因此伦敦黄金小幅反弹至 3300 美元/盎司上方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油涨 0.9%，报 64.94 美元/桶。美国上周 EIA 原油库 存超预期减少 583.6 万桶。光大期货指出，油价短期或维持区间震荡，需关注 欧佩克+产量政策变化。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.37%报 3346.4 美元/盎司， 白银涨 1.35%。美联储拟放宽银行杠杆率要求，同时重申通胀风险，对贵金属 形成双向影响。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锡涨 2.5%，期锌、期镍涨 1%，期铜涨 0.6%。 高盛预计，由于关税导致美国以外市场铜库存减少，以及中国经济活动有韧性， 铜价将在 8 月升至 2025 年高点。 4. 世界钢铁协会发布数据显示，5 月份，全球 70 个纳入统计国家/地区的粗钢 产量为 1.588 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%。中国粗钢产量为 8655 万吨，同比下降 6.9%； 印度粗钢产量为 1350 万吨，同比提高 9.7%。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1 ...

新华财经北京6月26日电 （吴郑思）受美元走软提振，周三（6月25日），国际金价小幅回升。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价当日收盘上涨7.9美元，收于每盎司 3346.4美元，涨幅为0.24%。 虽然当天科技股大涨推动标普500指数和纳指接近历史高位，削弱了黄金的吸引力，但美元指数继续走 软，则为金价提供了支撑。 在部分分析机构看来，虽然地缘局势缓和打击黄金的避险魅力，但"去美元化"则仍旧为黄金价格提供长 期支撑。 回归短期市场，美联储的降息动向仍是影响金价短线波动的重要因素。美联储主席鲍威尔25日在国会的 听证会上延续了对货币政策的谨慎态度。他表示，美联储暂无迫切降息需求，因仍需观察通胀趋势及贸 易关税的后续影响。不过他也承认，若通胀压力保持温和，则未来降息可能提前。 此外，周四（26日）将要出炉的美国一季度GDP数据和周五的5月核心PCE数据，仍是贵金属市场关注 的焦点。 当天纽约市场成交最活跃的9月白银期货上涨34美分，报每盎司36.55美元，涨幅为0.94%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 官方货币与金融机构论坛（OMFIF）最新调查显示，32%的央行计划在未来12-24个月内 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant rebound on June 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising over 3% [1][3] - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached 99.93 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [1] - Over 3,900 stocks in the A-share market rose, with a trading volume of 1.64 trillion yuan on the same day [1][3] Group 2: Institutional Research and Preferences - In June, 836 listed companies received institutional research, with nearly 70% of these companies showing positive returns [2] - The electronics sector was the most favored by institutions, with 94 companies receiving research, particularly in PCB, AI applications, and semiconductor chips [2] - The pharmaceutical and biotech sectors also attracted significant institutional interest, especially in the CXO (contract research organization) segment [2] Group 3: Foreign Investment Sentiment - Global market risk appetite has improved, leading to a surge in Chinese assets, with foreign institutions expressing optimism about the Chinese stock market [3] - Key factors for this optimism include resilient macroeconomic conditions, improving corporate profits, and supportive incremental policies [3] - As of June 25, 21 companies had provided earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 15 expecting positive net profit growth [3] Group 4: Cross-Border Business Development - Domestic securities firms are establishing cross-border business collaboration platforms and forming specialized teams for Hong Kong stock market expansion [4] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has introduced measures to facilitate A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, leading to a quicker review process [4] Group 5: Virtual Asset Trading - Guotai Junan International received approval to upgrade its trading license to include virtual asset trading, resulting in a significant stock price increase [5] - The approval has led to a surge in the Hong Kong Chinese brokerage index, with other firms also actively applying for similar licenses [5] Group 6: Short Drama Industry Growth - The short drama industry has seen explosive growth, with the interactive game index for short dramas rising 5.72% this year, outperforming the broader market [8] - Several listed companies in this sector have experienced stock price increases exceeding 40% [8] - Major internet companies are intensifying competition in the short drama space, with notable initiatives from Tencent, Xiaohongshu, and Bilibili [8]

1 、国务院总理李强出席 2025 年夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式并致辞。 李强表示，当前国际经贸格局正在发生深刻变化。我们应当坚定不移 拥抱普惠包容的经济全球化，维护自由贸易和多边主义，促进世界经济稳定发展。中国将继续积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献 中国经济所能。 2 、 周三 A 股再度强势上扬，上证指数午后涨超 1% 创年内新高，创业板指大涨超 3% ； 港股亦走强，恒生指数、恒生科技指数均涨 超 1% 。国泰君安国际获香港虚拟资产交易牌照，股价当日暴涨近 200% ，带动"牛市旗手"券商股整体大幅走高。中国银行、建设银 行、交通银行、工商银行均刷新历史新高，银行板块成为今年上半年表现最好的行业板块之一。 3 、 美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议"有多必要"。 他 补充说，美方此次将提出与此前在中东局势升级前与伊朗谈判时相同的要求。 特朗普表示，自己"非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲 突已经结束。 以色列和伊朗之间的冲突可能再次爆发，也许很快 。 他不认为伊朗会重新进行核计划 。 特朗普表示，不会放弃对伊朗 施压，也不会接管石油。 1 、 ...

Group 1 - The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies and expectations of economic slowdown have heightened market panic and increased volatility in international financial markets since 2025 [1] - The share of non-U.S. currencies like the Renminbi and Euro in sovereign reserves is rising, and their use in trade settlements is becoming more widespread [1] - Experts at the Summer Davos Forum indicated that the world is undergoing a "de-dollarization" process, but it is still far from challenging the dollar's dominance [1] Group 2 - U.S. economic growth may remain low for an extended period, with persistent productivity deficits and high inflation expected in the coming years [2] - Current tariff and immigration policies may have long-term impacts, such as increased trade costs and reduced willingness for consumption, investment, and mergers [2] - The absolute dominance of the dollar has weakened, but it still maintains a leading position; challenges from non-dollar sovereign currencies are premature [2] Group 3 - Stablecoins are gaining significant attention in the global financial community, with the U.S. potentially using stablecoin development to reinforce the dollar's international status [2] - The majority of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, which enhances the dollar's dominance in the stablecoin market [2] - To further promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, China may also consider developing a Renminbi stablecoin and needs to strengthen its bond market to enrich Renminbi assets [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This year, global funds have generally flowed out of US dollar assets and returned to their home markets. The spill - over of US dollar liquidity has led non - US markets to generally outperform US assets. However, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the "US Exceptionalism," there are new changes in global capital flows. After the cooling of the Middle East situation, funds temporarily flow back to risk assets. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may continue to support the performance of the US stock market. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, the cooling of geopolitical conflicts and the dovish stance of the Fed have led to the repair of global risk appetite and the rise of easing expectations. Equity assets may be favorable in the short term, while crude oil and gold may face some correction pressure [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Capital Flow and Asset Performance - Global funds have flowed out of US dollar assets this year. According to TIC data, in April, overseas investors reduced their holdings of medium - and long - term securities by $88.9 billion, including $59.2 billion in US stocks and $46 billion in US Treasury bonds. Canada and the Chinese mainland had relatively large reduction scales [8]. - European stocks are the most benefited assets under the weak US dollar due to friendly policies, low - level fundamental repair, and frequent capital rotation between the US and Europe. European investors have continuously reduced their holdings of US stocks and returned to their home markets this year. The recent 3 - month rolling net capital inflow into European stocks has reached a high since 2010 [12]. - Multiple funds support the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, including foreign capital inflows, southbound funds, and the liquidity injection by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The recent rise of the Hong Kong stock market is more of a valuation repair due to abundant liquidity. However, if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, but the long - term impact is limited [14][29]. - A - share market has abundant off - market liquidity and low opportunity cost, with active on - market funds. Since April, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the market is mainly in a state of stock game. Recently, large - finance (high - dividend), small - cap stocks have led the rise, and themes are active [21][31]. Short - term Changes in Global Liquidity - The cooling of the Middle East situation has improved market risk appetite, and funds have temporarily flowed back to risk assets. Risk - aversion assets are under pressure, and the focus will shift to fundamental data and the Fed's monetary policy stance [23]. - The "US Exceptionalism" has recovered. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may support the US stock market. "De - dollarization" may be postponed. In the short term, the net inflow of funds into US stocks has stabilized and rebounded, and the inflow of funds into US Treasury bonds is generally stable [23]. - The Hong Kong dollar has touched the weak - side guarantee. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. The subsequent depreciation pressure of the Hong Kong dollar may come from the appreciation of the US dollar and capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market [29]. Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: Port throughput has slightly converged, the supply and demand in the construction industry are weak, and housing prices need to stabilize. Externally, the US consumption and real estate sectors face downward pressure, the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging, economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has raised its inflation forecast [38][39]. - Overseas: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (previous value - 0.1%), industrial output decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%), and the housing start - up rate in May dropped to a five - year low, down 9.8%. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, and raised the core inflation forecast to 3.1% [39]. Configuration Suggestions - For large - category assets: In the short term, equity assets may be favorable, while crude oil and gold may face correction pressure [34]. - For the domestic bond market: The recent keyword is more upward direction, limited space, and emphasis on micro - operations. The yield of 10 - year Chinese bonds is approaching 1.6%, and small opportunities can be grasped from curve convex points and "micro - operations" [34]. - For the domestic stock market: Policy strength and performance drivers need to be realized. Continue to trade along industrial hotspots, policy expectations, and "high - to - low" rotations [35]. - For US Treasury bonds: The cooling of the US economy may bring short - term opportunities for US Treasury bonds. It is recommended to lay out 10 - year US Treasury bonds when the yield is above 4.5%, and the 2 - year variety is relatively more stable [35]. - For US stocks: Although the short - term sentiment is strong, the valuation has been repaired to a historical high, and there is still downward pressure on earnings. Pay attention to the return of the AI narrative and avoid tariff - affected sectors [36]. - For commodities: After the supply concerns are alleviated, commodities are generally under pressure and will gradually return to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to buy gold on dips, and crude oil is expected to be weak in the short term. It is judged that copper is better than oil [36]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: June official manufacturing PMI, June Caixin manufacturing PMI, and the Summer Davos Forum [52]. - Overseas: A series of US economic data including May new home sales, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, etc., as well as economic data from the eurozone, the UK, and Japan [54].

财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES 作造 S0160521120002 SAC : 分析师:张洲弛 S0160524070004 2025年6月25日 前： T E 证券研究报告 品及不完全年生平台 结论 | 单元格内推荐程度： 从左到右 | | | 增配 | 标配C | 代理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短期 | | H股科技、A股、H股红利 | 铜、美债、美股、黄金、中债 | 美元 | | | 中期 | | H股科技、AH股 | 黄金、美债、铜、中债、美股 | 美元 | | | | 中长期-周期位置 | 短期-近期变化 | 未来研判 | 其他潜在利好&风险 | | 全球景气 | | 中: 景气逐步修复 | 中:超跌后有所缓和 | 中:震荡向上 | 美国:景气弱于预期,特朗普新政策冲击/美 | | | | 美:高位+逐步回落 | 美: 景气低于预期 | 美：景气或震荡走弱 | 国内政波澜 | | 货币政策 | | 中国:长期降息周期中 美+欧:降息周期初期 | 美国偏观望，较市场预期更鹰 | 美国:美联储等待政策和降息不确定性落地,市 ...