4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付业务功能监管，充分发挥行政、自律互补作用，塑造合规致远的行业健康生态。常 态长效做好优化支付服务工作，扎实推进支付普惠，提供便捷安全的支付服务。提升支付系统服 务质效，以创新推动行业提质升级。 评 论 及 策 略 铂钯维持看多基调，长期核心逻辑未改，但短期受技术性回调、美联储人事变动等扰动，震 荡加剧。截至2026年2月2日，NYMEX铂、钯价自1月末以来分别回调21.5%、16.9%，核心扰动为特 朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。沃什政策立场偏鸽但不及预期，其提名宣 布后美元短线走强拖累铂钯，且提名需参议院确认，进程及后续政策独立性仍存不确定性，短期 货币政策预期博弈持续。宏观上，鲍威尔司法调查仍动摇美元信用，全球央行购金潮延续，中国 央行连续14个月增持、波兰央行购金计划落地，去美元化下铂钯储备价值凸显；格陵兰岛地缘 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 186.75 billion, 252.99 billion, and 271.76 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price of 45.58 HKD based on a 16x PE for 2026 [1] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 170.0 billion and 200.0 billion yuan, with adjustments made to the 2024 net profit figure to 172.28 billion yuan due to a significant asset restructuring involving the acquisition of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. [2] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, leading to a significant expansion in enterprise profits, with the average production cost at 15,747.31 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 149.18 yuan/ton, and an industry average profit of 8,295.19 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2,266.98 yuan/ton [3] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum market is entering a new cycle, with historical price highs driven by a weakening dollar and geopolitical factors, leading to fluctuations in aluminum prices [4] - The overall electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China is expected to grow from 43.76 million tons to 45.15 million tons from 2021 to 2025, with a tightening of new capacity control due to the 45 million ton capacity "ceiling" and "dual carbon" goals [5]

电解铝生产成本下降，企业利润扩大明显 2026年1月电解铝市价超预期上涨，触及历史新高，而氧化铝现货价格小幅下跌，处于偏低位水平，电 解铝厂生产成本较上月下降，而铝厂盈利空间扩大明显。 截至1月30日，我国电解铝企业算数平均生产成本15747.31元/吨附近，较上月降149.18元/吨，环比降幅 0.94%，同比降幅19.26%；行业平均盈利8295.19元/吨，较上月增加2266.98元/吨，环比增幅37.61%，同 比增幅1354.91%。加权平均生产成本14804.09元/吨，较上月减少177.55元/吨，降幅1.19%。本期电解铝 产能成本在16000元/吨以下的产能规模为3572.2万吨，占比81.21%；16000-17000元/吨产能规模为815.5 万吨，占比18.54%；17000-18000元/吨产能规模为11.2万吨，占比0.25%；暂无18000-19000元/吨产能规 模、产能成本大于19000元/吨产能规模。 智通财经APP获悉，环球富盛发布研报称，预测中国宏桥(01378)2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 186.75、252.99、271.76亿元。结合可比公司估值考虑到公 ...

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, announced that negotiations with the U.S. in Muscat focused on nuclear issues, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions, pending leadership decisions on the next meeting's timing and location [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman, Jefferson, stated that the current interest rate stance is "fully appropriate" for a stable economy, indicating no immediate urgency to resume interest rate cuts [1] - The FAO reported that global grain consumption is expected to increase by 61.8 million tons or 2.2% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 2.938 billion tons, primarily driven by a 3.0% rise in corn consumption [1] Group 2 - Precious metals continued to rebound, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which cooled rate cut expectations and led to a significant recovery in the dollar index [2][17] - The oil market saw a 1.97% increase in night trading, with ongoing indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Muscat, where both parties agreed to continue discussions without threats or pressure [3][12] - Copper prices rose by 0.6% in night trading, amid tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits, with short-term adjustments expected due to stable electricity investment and mixed performance in downstream demand [18] Group 3 - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with most major contracts declining, while caustic soda and synthetic rubber saw increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [1] - The market is currently cautious regarding various commodities, with a focus on potential adjustments in supply and demand dynamics, particularly in metals and energy sectors [5][10]

另一影响因素是媒体援引匿名知情人士的报道称，美国国债可能面临新一轮抛售，这意味着市场或出现 更大规模、更持续减持美元等美国资产的趋势。 外汇风险管理咨询公司 Klarity FX 董事阿马尔吉特·萨霍塔表示："当前流传的一个重要趋势 ——即'抛 售美国资产'的市场心态，这一情绪仍是今年困扰交易员的主要市场趋势之一"。 本周首个交易日，市场对美元前景的担忧再度浮现。受日本议会选举结果及美债资产减持报道的双重影 响，美元指数承压走低。随着失守97关口，指数回落至2022年2月以来的低位区间。与此同时，贵金属 市场迎来强劲反弹，国际金价日内大涨超2%，重回5000美元关口。 美元低迷 导致美元走弱的因素之一是上周末日本议会选举结果 ——日本首相高市早苗领导的执政党赢得超多数 席位，消除了市场此前面临的一项不确定性。 机构XS高级市场分析师拉妮娅·古勒称，金价重新回升至5000美元这一关键水平上方，"不只是一次异常 的价格波动，更是全球货币体系结构、货币与资产信心格局发生更深层次转变的直接体现"。 德意志银行贵金属分析师薛家康（Michael Hsueh）在报告中重申，维持对金价长期触及6000美元/盎司 的预测。他 ...

不得不承认，黄金、有色金属、石化等构筑的大宗商品叙事，短期内已然挣脱惯常的分析框架。 急涨、急跌、再反弹，市场的呼吸变得急促而失序。历史新高与数十年新低，在短短几个交易日轮番上演；涨 停与跌停、贪婪与恐惧，在情绪的剧烈摇摆中反复交替；疯狂抢筹与踩踏出逃，亦在预期的突然反转间迅速切 换。 黄金这个在2025年53次刷新历史纪录的贵金属品类，在最近短短一周内，走完了一段过山车般的史诗级轨迹。 1月29日，伦敦金价强势触及每盎司5598美元的历史极值，随后迎来急速调整，并在1月31日以一次近四十年未 见的单日暴跌急速冷却；正当市场惊魂未定时，2月4日，它又以一场近207个月以来的最大单日涨幅，再度改 写了剧本。 市场的解释我们已不陌生，"沃什交易"的冲击、获利回吐的压力，让黄金处于震荡行情。1月30日，以激进缩 表主张闻名的前美联储理事凯文·沃什为主席候选人，这一信号瞬间动摇了黄金的货币宽松逻辑。 在此基础上，交易所上调保证金的要求， 成为了压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草 。高杠杆资金在强制平仓的压力下 被迫集体离场，前期积累的巨大获利盘如雪崩般涌出，市场的极致波动由此诞生。 但若跳出眼下的喧嚣与波动，便会发现，这或许并非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar and the subsequent rise in gold prices, highlighting the market's concerns regarding the dollar's future and the impact of geopolitical events and monetary policy on asset prices [3][4]. Group 1: US Dollar Weakness - The US dollar index has fallen below the 97 mark, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, influenced by the results of the Japanese parliamentary elections and reports of potential US Treasury asset sell-offs [3][4]. - The market sentiment is shifting towards a trend of "selling US assets," which is a significant concern for traders this year [4]. - Since President Trump took office, the dollar index has dropped over 10%, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, deteriorating fiscal credibility, and ongoing political risks [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Surge - Gold futures have rebounded strongly, surpassing the $5000 and $5100 levels, supported by the dollar's decline and increasing global uncertainty [6][7]. - Despite a significant drop in January, the prevailing view is that the sell-off in precious metals was more of a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift [7]. - Deutsche Bank analysts maintain a long-term gold price target of $6000 per ounce, citing strong demand from investors, particularly from China, as a key driver for precious metal investments [8]. - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of the year to $6200 per ounce, driven by stronger-than-expected demand primarily from investment rather than central bank purchases [8].

Group 1: Dollar Outlook - Concerns about the dollar's future have resurfaced, with the dollar index falling below the 97 mark, reaching its lowest level since February 2022 [1][2] - The decline in the dollar is influenced by the recent Japanese parliamentary election results and reports of potential new sell-offs of U.S. Treasury assets, indicating a trend of reducing holdings in U.S. assets [2] - The dollar index has dropped over 10% since President Trump took office, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, deteriorating fiscal credit, and ongoing political risks [2] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have rebounded strongly, surpassing the $5,000 mark, driven by the dollar's decline and increasing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [3] - Despite a significant drop in gold prices earlier this year, the prevailing market sentiment suggests that the sell-off was more of a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift [3] - Deutsche Bank analysts maintain a long-term forecast for gold prices to reach $6,000 per ounce, citing strong demand from China and ongoing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The demand for gold and other precious metals remains robust, with investors seeking diversification and alternative sources of returns amid market uncertainties [3][4] - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of the year to $6,200 per ounce, driven by stronger-than-expected demand primarily from investment rather than central bank purchases [4] - The market sentiment towards gold remains bullish, with expectations for prices to potentially reach $7,200 per ounce in the future [4]

美国财政部长最近在电视上公开"甩锅"，把黄金市场的过山车行情怪到了"中国交易员"头上。 他说中国市场交易"有点失序"，监管不得不收紧保证金，这波行情像一场投机狂欢。 这话听起来好像挺有道理，但仔细一想，味道全变了。 一个全球最大 经济体的财长，不去分析自家货币政策、不去看地缘政治风险，反而盯着万里之外的中国交易员说事，这本身就不正常。 更关键的是，这句话无意中暴露了一个美国最不愿意承认的事实：他们对黄金价格的掌控力，已经大不如前了。 过去，纽约和伦敦打个喷嚏，全球金价就得感冒；现在，中国央行增持点黄金，中国老百姓买点金条，就能让国际金价坐上火箭，连美联储加息降息都不太 好使了。 这场"甩锅"大戏的背后，是一场关于全球货币定价权的暗战，而黄金，正是这场战争中最醒目的风向标。 贝森特的原话是，金价的此次异动，部分源于中国市场的交易状况"有些不稳定"，以至于监管方不得不上调保证金要求。 在他看来，这更像是一场典型的 投机性"冲顶"后的泡沫破裂。 节目播出时，国际金价刚刚从逼近每盎司5600美元的历史极巅上演高台跳水，短短几天内暴跌超过20%，白银的跌幅更是接近50%。 这种级别的波动，在历 史上只在极端危机时刻才会 ...

该机构将这种集中描述为"经济上效率低下，金融上风险重重，且不可持续"。该媒体强调，与传统经济理论相反，全 球储蓄从快速增长的经济体流向了一个增长放缓且正在老化的经济体，这导致美国资产价格膨胀，并使其他地区无法 获得能够提高生产力的资本。 该媒体称，根据资金流向、市场表现以及机构投资者的决策显示，经济引力、集中风险以及对与人工智能相关的资产 价格泡沫的担忧，促使投资者正在加速将资金从美国转移出去。在此背景下，该机构将这种加速与美国总统特朗普的 政策联系起来，指出与关税相关的不确定性，对美联储独立性的反复攻击，所谓的"持续财政失控"，以及对格陵兰岛 主权的暗示，都是增加了美国决策模糊性的因素。 但该媒体强调，政治风险并不是唯一的解释，更深层次的原因在于推动美国金融优势的动力正在减弱，以及投资者对 美国资产的配置已经饱和。 自全球金融危机以来，美国股市的回报率数倍于实际经济增长，这促使外国投资者在一个十年内将其在美国股市的投 资增加了三倍多，达到超过二十万亿美元，其中大部分没有进行货币风险对冲。这推高了估值，增强了美元，并为国 际投资者带来了巨大的收益。然而，该媒体确认，这个时代建立在一系列已经耗尽的特殊因素之上， ...