Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the phenomenon of "anti-involution" are contributing to a strong performance in resource stocks, with mining ETFs and precious metal ETFs seeing significant gains [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached a new high, surpassing $3,850 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and ongoing risk events. The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and safe-haven demand [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - Ongoing disruptions in overseas copper mines have led to a supply imbalance, with actual copper production falling short of expectations. Limited capital expenditure from copper mining companies is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, potentially pushing copper prices higher [3]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts are expected to benefit resource stocks, as lower rates may stimulate economic activity and increase demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3]. Group 4: Energy Metals - The lithium market is recovering, with price increases anticipated due to policy-driven capacity adjustments. The demand for lithium battery equipment is expected to rebound in 2025 as domestic bidding and overseas expansions continue [4]. - The development of solid-state batteries is being driven by a combination of policy support, demand, and technological advancements, indicating a clear trend towards market expansion [4]. Group 5: Storage Demand - Domestic policies are guiding independent storage to become a significant growth engine, while external factors such as tariff delays and subsidy extensions in the U.S. market are creating opportunities for investment [6]. - In Europe, the demand for industrial storage is expected to grow as inventory depletion nears completion, and emerging markets are also seeing increased demand for energy storage driven by renewable energy initiatives [7]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities in Mining Sector - Mining ETFs have shown substantial year-to-date gains, with the mining ETF (561330) up over 70%, the non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) up over 60%, and the gold stock ETF (517400) up over 80% as of September 30 [8].

近期，彭博澳门银行业研讨会在澳门成功举办。来自 澳门中央证券托管结算一人有限公司 （MCSD）、债券通有限公司、工银澳门、海通银行澳门分行 的特邀嘉宾，与彭博市场专家围绕 全球外汇市场、跨境债券投资、数据流动以及风险管理 等热门话题展开深度讨论，聚焦市场新机 遇。让我们一起回顾现场精彩发言！ 近年来，离岸人民币债券在澳门的发行规模不断增长，吸引了更多国际投资者的关注，推动了澳门与 全球金融市场的进一步融合。 汪大海 彭博大中华区总裁 全球外汇市场动态与交易策略 开场致辞 近期美联储降息25个基点，美元正如市场预期逐步走向宽松货币政策，"去美元化"成为市场讨论焦 点。 彭博大中华区总裁汪大海先生欢迎现场嘉宾的到来并发表开场辞。他表示， 澳门在国家发展与粤港 澳大湾区建设中有着独特且重要的战略地位，既有与国际标准接轨的制度环境，又有着与内地市场 紧密相连的区位优势，这让澳门在人民币国际化进程中发挥了重要作用。 特朗普的贸易政策正在不断加剧'去美元化'的趋势，通过对全球施加高关税来减少美国贸易逆差，就 会减少美元在全球输出中的流动性，改变原有美元体系循环。 正如IMF公布的数据来看，过去十年替 代美元的最核心资产就 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The main trend of gold and silver continues to rise, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.89% and COMEX silver by 6.92% this week [1][2] - The strong performance of precious metals is supported by robust US GDP data, which led to a temporary adjustment followed by a recovery in upward momentum [2] - The expectation of a slow bull market for gold with decreasing volatility in the future is noted, alongside a positive outlook for the precious metals sector due to ongoing de-dollarization and ETF inflows [2] Group 2: Copper - Supply disruptions are expected to elevate the price center for copper, with Freeport Indonesia lowering its Q4 copper production guidance to "negligible levels" and reducing the 2026 annual production forecast by 35% [2] - The global electrolytic copper balance may reverse by late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, with domestic consumption expected to rise as the peak season approaches, potentially boosting copper prices [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The outlook for aluminum prices remains positive despite a slight decline of 0.24% this week, with expectations of increased downstream consumption due to seasonal factors [3] - The impact of US aluminum tariffs is considered limited, and the long-term view suggests that the price center for electrolytic aluminum may continue to rise as inventories are depleted [3] Group 4: Lithium - Lithium prices have seen a slight increase driven by pre-holiday stocking, with demand expected to maintain high growth due to significant contracts signed by major companies [4] - The supply-demand balance for lithium is anticipated to improve marginally, with strategic importance highlighted by government discussions regarding lithium projects [4] Group 5: Uranium - Uranium prices have surged to $83 per pound, primarily due to continued purchasing by SPUT funds, indicating the start of an upward cycle [4] - The fourth quarter is historically a peak procurement season, with expectations for sustained price increases as nuclear power operators begin to purchase [4] Group 6: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to maintain an upward trend following the implementation of export bans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, despite initial market reactions [4] - The market is adjusting to the new policies, with significant price increases observed across various cobalt products, indicating a tightening supply situation in China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut signal a favorable environment for gold investments, particularly in gold ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold Fund ETF (518800) rose by 1.22% on September 29, while Gold Stock ETF (517400) increased by 3.5% on the same day [1] - COMEX gold prices have reached a new high, peaking at 3849 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut, with officials expressing differing views but overall leaning towards dovish stances [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that increasing risks in the job market were key factors in the decision to cut rates [1] - Vice Chairman Bowman emphasized the necessity for further rate cuts due to the fragility of the job market [1] - Bessent urged the Fed to consider a rate cut of 100 to 150 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The commencement of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, increasing macroeconomic uncertainties abroad, and the global trend of "de-dollarization" are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - The investment value of gold remains promising, with recommendations for investors to consider Gold Fund ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) [1]

背后的逻辑其实很直白。现货黄金在9月中旬一度突破3700美元每盎司，再度创下历史新高。今年以来金价涨幅接近40%，这意 味着品牌在生产、采购和库存端的综合成本确实在上升。（数据来源：Wind） 在这样的背景下，社交平台上的讨论也越来越多。有消费者抱怨一口价工费太高，觉得买来投资不划算；也有人选择在涨价前 捡漏，赶紧把心仪的款式拿下。 那金价为什么会在近期持续飙升呢？小夏觉得有几方面的原因。 一方面，是美联储进入降息通道。9月中旬，美联储宣布下调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点，这是今年以来的首次降息。降息 一方面削弱了美元的吸引力，另一方面提升了黄金的配置价值，毕竟，黄金是不生息的资产，利率越低，它的比较优势更明 显。历史数据显示，美联储进入降息周期后，黄金往往表现更为亮眼。 最近，黄金市场又一次刷屏了。不同于以往按克计价的首饰日常跟随金价浮动，这次让大家直呼涨得离谱的，是一口价黄金产 品。 短短几天，某些品牌的转运珠的价格就涨了200到500元，有些款式甚至要贵上几千元。朋友圈里，品牌柜姐们开始提醒顾客赶 紧下手，而线下门店里，不少消费者则选择趁涨价前火速买单。（环球网 20250915） 那么，什么是一口价 ...

在交易性持仓方面，钟俊轩表示，随着贵金属价格的持续上涨，近期海外管理基金净多以及金银ETF持 仓量均有所增加，驱动金银价格表现强势。COMEX黄金管理基金净持仓在9月23日当周增加1578手， 至16.05万手，COMEX白银管理基金净持仓增加1293手，至3.7万手。工业属性更强的白银价格表现更 为强势，外盘金银比价由9月17日的87.8回落至9月29日的81.3。 长假期间，海外市场将发生多个重要的宏观经济事件。钟俊轩表示，当前美国政府面临"关门"危机，若 国会无法通过短期支出法案，那么美国政府将于周三部分关闭，非农数据的发布将会受到影响。若美国 政府可以避免"关门"危机，那么假期公布的就业数据将对美联储货币政策预期产生显著影响。同时，需 要关注9月ISM制造业及非制造业PMI数据，偏强的制造业PMI数据会令工业属性更强的白银价格表现强 于黄金，金银比价将存在进一步下移空间。 转自：期货日报 临近国庆中秋假期，金银市场看涨热度不减。 周一（9月29日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨1.90%，报3821.40美元／盎司。COMEX黄金期货涨1.80%，报 3859.00美元／盎司。现货白银涨1.75%，报46.88 ...

黄金突破3000美元大关也就是今年一季度的事，5月就冲破3500美元，而后震荡盘整了一阵，近期再次突然大爆发，一度冲破3800美元大关。 光是在今年9月，现货黄金累计涨幅已超6%，仅在2025年，金价就已创下超30次名义价格历史新高。 各界不禁感叹——黄金疯了吗？究竟背后的神秘驱动力是什么？ 一、连续降息预期推升金价 就短期因素来说，黄金的上涨和美联储降息直接相关。 北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点（BP），至4.00%～4.25%之间，这也是自2024年9月以来首次降息，而且美 联储预计年内还有2次降息。 这一超预期的鸽派声明直接推动黄金暴涨，现货黄金最高上涨至突破3700美元/盎司，突破了1980年通胀调整的历史最高峰值。 一般而言，国债和黄金都被视为避险资产，但当降息导致国债收益率下降时，黄金作为替代品的吸引力增强。由于黄金本身不产生利息或股息，当其他提 供收益的资产失去吸引力时，黄金的吸引力便会增强。 除了降息本身，美国就业数据连续两个月"爆雷"，市场开始担忧美国经济。同时，特朗普持续对美联储施加政治压力，这也令市场担心美联储独立性受到 威胁。 尽管美联储的每 ...

9月29日，国际金价再创新高，现货黄金盘中突破3800美元/盎司，一度涨至3819.8美元/盎司。较月初的 3476.5美元/盎司累计上涨约10%，年内涨幅已超45%。而自9月以来，在美联储降息预期的影响下，国 际金价就持续大涨，屡创新高。 伴随着国际金价屡创新高，消费端的金饰品价格也水涨船高。长假临近，珠宝品牌也迎来了传统的销售 旺季。前往门店选购金饰的顾客络绎不绝，各大珠宝品牌也纷纷推出促销活动以吸引消费者。受国际金 价接连上涨影响，国内品牌金饰克价已经超1100元大关。周大福、潮宏基等品牌9月29日千足金饰品的 价格为1108元/克，较本月初已经上涨约80元/克。 "不过现在有促销活动。千足金每克有40元的优惠，一口价饰品除了'故宫系列'，可以打9.2折。"谈及最 近关于"一口价"饰品的调价传闻，周大福门店的工作人员表示，"10月会上调价格，大概在30%左 右。"同样的涨价消息在六福珠宝的门店也得到确认，其柜员表示，"一口价"饰品10月会涨价，但具体 的幅度还不清楚。 "近期金价波动频繁，是黄金饰品涨价的根本因素。加之每年9月、10月是传统婚庆旺季，也是婚庆金饰 购买的高峰期，市场需求的增加也推动了金饰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, before the central bank's policy direction becomes clearer, the bond market is unlikely to see significant movements. However, with the injection of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks, interest rates may gradually approach previous lows, accompanied by some structural market trends. Therefore, pre - arranging for the to - be - allocated varieties of incremental funds is a dominant strategy. Good choices include ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds favored by the "cost - reduction" of insurance in July and sinking credit varieties with a maturity yield in the 2.0% - 2.2% range for betting on the growth of wealth management scale [5]. - In June and the second half of the year, aside from the uncertainty of tariffs, there are few foreseeable negative factors in June. The fundamental data is still mixed, and its indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. Even if long - term interest rates retreat, the amplitude may be relatively controllable. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties such as ultra - long local bonds, long - term agricultural development bonds, and export - import bank bonds can be preferentially selected [41]. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - The change in the central bank's statement on reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the monetary policy draft this week dampened market expectations of easing. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active Treasury bonds increased by 0.5 and 2.3 bps respectively, while the yield of 1 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 bps [2][11]. - In the interest - rate bond market, yields of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and below generally decreased by 3 - 4 bps, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield breaking through the 1.40% resistance line to 1.36%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds remained stable at 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. In the credit - bond market, the market continued the idea of spread mining, and long - term varieties became the focus. Yields of some credit - bond varieties decreased to different extents [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, 4223 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, and 508 billion yuan are scheduled to be issued from June 30 to July 4. As of June 27, 21635 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, an increase of 6542 billion yuan year - on - year, accounting for 49% of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan quota. 1110 billion yuan of Treasury bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 1110 billion yuan, including 710 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds. 1150 billion yuan of policy - financial bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 109 billion yuan [19]. Funds Market Situation - During the cross - quarter period, the upward pressure on funds was relatively controllable. Despite tax - period disturbances, the overnight funds remained stable, while the 7 - day interest rates rose significantly. The R007 and DR007 increased by 24 bp and 13 bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.37% and 1.67% respectively, with changes of +0.3 and +13.9 bps compared with last week. The overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 2.02% and 2.06% respectively, with changes of +37.7 and +19.8 bps compared with last week [23][25]. - In the context of the tightening of the end - of - quarter funds, the overall trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed [28]. China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. The performance of major industries remained strong, with improvements in both supply and demand. The production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51%, and the new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [31]. - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27204.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and the profit growth rate slowed down compared with January - April. Although new - energy industries contributed significantly to profit growth, industrial product prices remained low, and there was still a large space for increasing effective demand [33]. - The US dollar index has been below 100 in the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank's net open - market injection was 12672 billion yuan, the second - highest single - week net injection this year [38]. China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - The economic data in May was mixed. The GDP under the production method remained high, while the terminal demand under the expenditure method was differentiated. The annual 5% real growth target is likely to be achieved. In the future, policies may focus on structural short - board compensation and improving nominal growth [42]. - Monetary policy will continue to be loose to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and the liquidity is likely to remain loose. In June and the second half of the year, high - cost - performance bond varieties can be preferentially selected [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $3800 per ounce and reaching a historical high, is driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 29, spot gold prices first exceeded $3800 per ounce, reaching $3805.979, marking a 1.26% increase, with an intraday high of $3819.81 [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw significant gains, closing at $3845.5 per ounce, up 0.96%, with a peak of $3849 [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following the August PCE inflation data, which aligns with market predictions [4]. 2. A weakening dollar and trends towards "de-dollarization," providing additional support for gold prices [4]. 3. Heightened political uncertainty due to the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for gold suggests a likely "short-term high-level fluctuation and a medium to long-term upward trend," with core drivers influencing market dynamics [5]. - The fundamental support for rising gold prices remains intact, driven by slowing U.S. economic growth, a cooling labor market, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies recommend that new investors consider entering the market during price corrections, while existing holders should maintain their positions [7]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious and rational approach, avoiding impulsive high purchases and instead waiting for reasonable price levels for gradual entry [7].