策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：公共节日，美国市场周四休市。国内粕类期价整体走强，在进口成本支撑和远期采购缺口仍存 的背景下，远期供应受进口成本推动水涨船高，资金并未出现松动，短期回落不改上行趋势，阶段性走势 依旧偏强。 品种：棕榈油(P) 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 偏强 偏强 震荡 偏强 震荡 ...

商品期货开盘，PTA、对二甲苯主力合约涨超3%，原油、短纤、瓶片涨超2%，液化气、焦炭、燃料 油、LU燃油、甲醇、沥青涨超1%。沪锡、烧碱、沪银跌超1%。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the volatile geopolitical situation and its impact on commodity trading opportunities [1] - It invites participants to join a free trading group focused on identifying key market opportunities [1] - The training camp is limited to 100 participants, emphasizing exclusivity and urgency [1]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses on June 19, with red dates and SC crude oil contracts rising over 4% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1403.97 points, up 9.01 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1946.50 points, up 12.50 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Optimistic sentiment drove red date futures to rise significantly by 4.87%, attributed to favorable weather conditions in the Xinjiang production area and reduced risk control parameters by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - Red date futures saw a net increase of 24,000 contracts and a net inflow of over 260 million yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] - Analysts caution that high inventory levels and slow destocking may pose risks to the current bullish sentiment in red dates [2] Group 3 - Ethylene glycol continued its upward trend, rising over 2% on June 19, marking five consecutive days of gains, supported by strong fundamentals and reduced port inventory [3] - As of June 19, ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.56 million tons to 537,000 tons, remaining at a low level since 2022 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to lead to a decline in ethylene glycol imports, further strengthening the bullish market atmosphere [3] Group 4 - The main contract for the European shipping index fell over 4% due to weak demand expectations despite ongoing price increases by shipping companies [4] - The easing of the China-U.S. trade situation has reduced pressure on shipping routes, but long-term price stability remains uncertain [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to impact shipping rates and market volatility in the near term [4] Group 5 - Precious metals faced downward pressure, with silver futures dropping over 2% and gold futures also declining, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals [5] - Despite the declines, market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [5] - The production of polysilicon continues to face challenges, with the main contract hitting a new low, reflecting cautious procurement attitudes among manufacturers [5]

以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者广发期货研究所 广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 文 | 周敏波 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 2008年金融危机具体可分为3个阶段，铜价在3个阶段的走势存在明显差异： 1、第一阶段（2007.08-2008.06）：此阶段，美国流动性风险与次贷危机逐步浮现，但尚未对整个金融体系造成全面流动性压 力。铜价在此阶段表现为震荡中逐步创新高，LME铜价震荡区间约为6400-8700美元/吨，短期流动性风险的冲击会使得铜价下 挫，但其商品属性对价格形成支撑，流动性风险过后铜价则迎来修复。 2、第二阶段（2008.07-2008.10）：此阶段流动性危机向债务危机演化，次贷危机升级为金融危机，通过信用收缩和资产价格 暴跌传导至实体经济，全球主要经济体GDP、PMI等各项经济指标急转直下。铜的金融属性和商品属性共振，LME铜价由约 8500美元/吨单边下行至约4000美元/吨，价格直接腰斩。 3、第三阶段（2008.11之后）：为应对流动性冲击及实体经济的下行压力，全球各国普遍加码货币政策与财政政策。在全球央 行的大规模刺激政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiangxi Hongbai New Materials Co., Ltd., aims to mitigate the risks associated with raw material price fluctuations by engaging in commodity futures hedging and trading activities, specifically focusing on industrial silicon, which is a key raw material for its operations [1][5]. Summary by Sections Overview of Commodity Futures Hedging and Trading - The company plans to conduct futures hedging and trading to reduce the impact of raw material price volatility on its production costs, thereby ensuring stable and sustainable business operations for itself and its subsidiaries [1]. Financial Limits and Funding Sources - The maximum margin required for the commodity futures hedging and trading activities will not exceed 40 million RMB, and the highest contract value held at any single point in time will not exceed 200 million RMB, with these limits being subject to rolling use during the approval period [2]. - The funding for these activities will come from the company's own funds and will not involve raised capital [2]. Risk Analysis and Control Measures - The company will adhere to a prudent approach, avoiding speculative trading, and will base its hedging and trading activities on normal operational needs to mitigate price fluctuation risks [3]. - Identified risks include market risk, funding risk, internal control risk, technical risk, and policy risk, which the company aims to manage through established protocols [3]. Risk Management Policies - The company has established a comprehensive trading management system that outlines principles, approval authority, management processes, risk control, and information disclosure [4]. - It will align its futures trading with its production operations, strictly control positions, and continuously optimize the scale and duration of hedging activities [4]. Accounting Policies - The accounting policies and principles for the commodity futures hedging and trading will comply with relevant Chinese accounting standards, ensuring proper financial reporting and measurement [4]. Sponsor's Review Opinion - The sponsor, CITIC Securities, believes that the company's engagement in commodity futures hedging and trading will help mitigate operational risks from raw material price fluctuations and enhance financial stability, with all procedures adhering to legal and regulatory requirements [5].

Group 1 - Hainan Province will issue childcare consumption vouchers starting from June 19, 2025, to promote inclusive and standardized development of childcare services, targeting infants under 4 years old [2] - A job fair for 2025 graduates was held at Hainan University, featuring 93 employers offering 2,059 positions across various industries, as part of the "100-day sprint" initiative to enhance employment opportunities for graduates [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced eight major financial opening measures at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and personal credit institutions [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced the "1 + 6" policy measures to deepen reforms, including the creation of a new growth tier for innovative companies [3] - The CSRC will allow qualified foreign investors to participate in ETF options trading starting October 9, 2025, and expand their participation in commodity futures and options trading from June 20, 2025 [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of June 18, the national summer grain wheat harvest was nearly complete, with a progress rate of 96% [3] - The Ministry of Emergency Management initiated a Level IV flood emergency response for several provinces on June 18, deploying three working groups to assist in flood relief efforts [3] Group 4 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that 791 citizens have been safely relocated from Iran, with over 1,000 others in the process of evacuation [3]

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.19） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 现货价格 | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 2986 | 4 | 0.13% | 3120 | 134 | | 热卷 | 3103 | 4 | 0.13% | 3200 | 97 | | 铁矿 | 698 | 3 | 0.43% | 715 | 17 | | 焦煤 | 790.5 | -1 | -0.13% | 880 | 89.5 | | 焦炭 | 1374 | -1.5 | -0.11% | 1245 | -129 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体企稳。螺纹收于2986元/吨，上涨0.13%；热卷主力 | | | | | | | 合约收于3103元/吨，上涨0.13%；铁矿今日主力合约收于698元/吨；双焦今 | | | | | | | 天焦炭小幅收跌。 | | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | | 供应方面，由于煤炭价格持续下跌，247家钢厂盈利率微降至58. ...

Core Insights - In May, China's retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Retail sales of goods in above-designated size enterprises grew by 8.2%, with an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown a significant impact, with retail sales of home appliances, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increasing by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The retail volume of passenger cars in May saw a year-on-year increase of 13.3% according to data from the Automobile Circulation Association [1] Group 2: Upgraded Product Sales - Sales of upgraded consumer goods have experienced rapid growth, with retail sales of sports and entertainment products and gold and silver jewelry increasing by 28.3% and 21.8% year-on-year, respectively [1]

黑色金属数据日报 | 2025/06/19 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | < 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月18日 | 2978. 00 | 3100.00 | 670. 50 | 1403.00 | 815. 50 | | | 涨跌值 | 1.00 | 10.00 | 0. 00 | 15.00 | 5.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.03 7 | 0. 32 | 0.00 | 1.08 | 0.62 | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力合约元/吨) | R ...