Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is in a unilateral volatile market, with a trend strength of 0. Suggest a positive spread arbitrage for the monthly spread and short PXN01 at high levels. The supply - demand pattern is tight, but PXN valuation is high and the trend is weak [1][7]. - PTA should focus on the production cut situation of filament factories. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread arbitrage for the monthly spread and go long MEG while shorting PTA. The trend strength is 0. The basis has fallen to single - digits, and the supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, with the possibility of continuous inventory accumulation [1][7]. - MEG is in a low - inventory, unilateral volatile market, with a trend strength of 1. The cost - end coal price is strong, and it is recommended to conduct a positive spread arbitrage for the basis and monthly spread, and not to chase short on the unilateral valuation [1][7]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **PX**: A 700,000 - ton PX unit in Southeast Asia is gradually resuming its load after a reduction in late June due to an olefin - end fault. Another 530,000 - ton PX unit in Southeast Asia stopped for maintenance in early July, 15 days ahead of schedule, and is expected to restart in mid - August, with a pure benzene production capacity of about 300,000 tons [3]. - **PTA**: In mainland China, the load of Yisheng Hainan and Yisheng Dalian PTA units has returned to normal, and the PTA load has reached 79.7% as of Thursday. The current operating rate is around 85.8%. A 1.5 - million - ton PTA unit in Taiwan, China has restarted after a maintenance that started in early June [3]. - **MEG**: From July 7th to July 13th, the arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo ports are about 31,000 tons, 37,000 tons, and 28,000 tons respectively, with a total planned arrival at major ports of about 96,000 tons. As of July 10th, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 67.57% (a 1.06% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) method is 73.13% (a 3.79% increase from the previous period). Since June 1st, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 29.175 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - to - ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons [5]. - **Polyester**: The load of polyester is in a fluctuating decline. As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in mainland China is around 88.9%. A 600,000 - ton polyester unit in Huzhou has restarted after a short - term maintenance. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 10th were temporarily weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 50% - 60% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers on the 10th improved moderately compared to the 9th, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 63% by 3:00 pm [5][6]. Trend Strength - PX trend strength: 0 [7]. - PTA trend strength: 0 [7]. - MEG trend strength: 1 [7]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, and monthly spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are provided, along with the price changes compared to the previous day [2]. - **Spot**: The prices and price changes of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are presented [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: The prices and price changes of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread are given [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins (including propylene and polyethylene): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester (including PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Chlor - alkali (including PVC and caustic soda): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed performance with different trends for each product. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and policy expectations, while others are influenced by macro - market sentiment and cost factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures market rebounds. MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declines, import demand weakens, and port inventory accumulates. Some olefin failures in the northwest lead to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. There are many planned methanol device overhauls, which support the market, but demand is weak in the off - season, so the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Urea - The urea futures market is strongly oscillating. Rainy weather boosts agricultural fertilizer demand, supply - demand improves marginally, and enterprise inventory decreases. Port inventory accumulates rapidly. The latest Indian tender price boosts market sentiment. In the short - term, the market is strongly oscillating, but later, agricultural demand will enter the off - season, and new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures rise, but the increase is weaker than other chemicals due to weak fundamentals. The polyethylene market sentiment improves slightly, but there is limited upward momentum. Polypropylene standard products follow the futures price increase, but non - standard product demand is weak [4] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is strong due to high oil prices and improved spot trading. Port inventory accumulation slows down, and downstream purchasing improves. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate based on seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band trading, and consider short - selling at high prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures rise significantly, driven by the sharp increase in the price of general benzene. The cost increase improves market trading sentiment, and the futures price increase drives factories to raise prices, with good trading volume [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise slightly, and the monthly spread is weak. PX load decreases, PTA load increases, and PTA supply - demand eases. Ethylene glycol inventory decreases, and the price is strong. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices rise slightly with raw material prices. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and bottle - chip enterprises cut production [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is strong due to real - estate rumors, but downstream orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulates. New production capacity is released, and domestic demand is weak. Caustic soda continues to rise, with reduced enterprise operation and inventory, but long - term supply pressure remains [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rise significantly due to real - estate rumors and industry inventory reduction. Soda ash is strong in the macro - environment, but inventory pressure is high, and long - term demand is expected to decline [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices expected to be range - bound and firm. However, high lead prices may limit downstream purchasing, capping the upside potential [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disruptions have led to a rebound in zinc prices. But the rebound suppresses downstream purchasing, causing inventory accumulation and limited upside. Opportunities to short may emerge after positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Prices and Trading Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.59% to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.09% to 17,175 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 7.42% to 33,005 lots, while the open interest increased 1.25% to 52,261 lots. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.71% to 2,058.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased 0.62% to 8.34 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, rising scrap lead - acid battery prices, limited supplies, and hoarding by recyclers have led to some refineries reducing or halting production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1]. - **Industry News**: In June, the silver by - product output of primary lead smelters increased 1.3% month - on - month. In July, it may decline slightly due to regular maintenance. The additional tariff negotiation for the US REDDOG lead ore may end with both parties sharing the cost, and the ore will enter the domestic market by the end of the third quarter. Zhongse Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to expand the production scale of the Baiyinnuoer lead - zinc mine from 990,000 tons/year to 1.65 million tons/year [1]. Zinc - **Prices and Trading Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.55% to 22,090 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.32% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 2.53% to 154,513 lots, and the open interest decreased 3.46% to 114,762 lots. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.86% to 2,742.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased 0.54% to 8.07 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, reducing production constraints and cost support. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have increased, with an obvious upward trend in output. Demand is weak, and downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs [1]. - **Industry News**: In the second quarter of 2025, the Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate. In June, production was affected by capacity - bottleneck upgrades and low - grade ore processing. After the first - stage upgrade, the daily available time of the DMS system increased from 6 to 16 hours. The second - stage upgrade in August is expected to increase the annual processing capacity from 800,000 to 960,000 tons, and the DMS available time to 22 hours/day. The annual zinc production guidance remains at 180,000 - 240,000 tons [1].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 10 日 铝：重心上移 氧化铝：几内亚雨季影响，短期偏强 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20515 | -10 | -120 | વચ્ચે | -190 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20685 | ー | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2602 | 25 | -13 | 154 | -71 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 102569 | -7014 | -43720 | -68522 | -105986 | | | | 沪铝 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | | | | | 震荡 | | 美对铜的关税临近落地，非美地 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 短线看强 | 区铜价承压，期价在前期中枢或 又支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参 ...

【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | ୧୧18 | ୧୧18 | 0 | PF08-09 | 120 | 120 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6398 | 6398 | 0 | PF09-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 短纤2509 | 6398 | 6398 | 0 | PF 基 差 | 292 | 297 | -5 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 278838 | 273602 | 5236 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 690 | 6.695 | -5 | | | 短纤成交量 | 164913 | 158707 | 6206 | 短纤产销率 | 49% | 51% | -2% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2508 | 589୧ | 5914 | -18 | PR08-09 | 30 | 42 | -12 | | | 瓶片2509 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 0. The recommended strategies are month - spread positive arbitrage and shorting PXN at high levels [1][7]. - PTA should be concerned about the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts, with a trend strength of 0. A month - spread reverse arbitrage operation is advised [1][7]. - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 1. The suggestions are to conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and not to chase short positions due to low valuation [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On July 9, the price of PX rose. One August Asian spot was traded at $855, and one September Asian spot was traded at $847. The end - of - day valuation was $850/ton, up $3 from the previous day. The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimate for August MOPJ is $594/ton CFR. However, the sentiment in the downstream PTA and polyester sectors remains weak [3]. - **PTA**: In China, on July 9, several major polyester yarn and fiber producers were discussing a new round of production cut, but no definite decision had been made as of that date [5]. - **MEG**: On July 9, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,347 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for late August was also 4,347 yuan/ton. The average spot price in the Ningbo market was 4,362 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in the South China market was 4,365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Polyester**: On July 9, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately compared to the previous day, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 59%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [6]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of PTA is 0, also indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of MEG is 1, suggesting a slightly bullish view [7]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Conduct month - spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels. The supply - demand pattern of PX is tight due to the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and the planned maintenance of South Korea's Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant in August. PXN is at a high valuation and shows a weakening trend [7]. - **PTA**: Perform month - spread reverse arbitrage operations. The basis has dropped significantly, factories are selling, and traders' positive arbitrage positions are being stopped out. Supply will be marginally looser from mid - July, and it is expected that PTA will continue to accumulate inventory with increasing supply and decreasing demand [7]. - **MEG**: Due to the strong coal price at the cost end, relevant coal - chemical products have rebounded. With a low valuation, conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and avoid chasing short positions [7].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 10 日 焦炭：震荡偏强 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2509 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 871.5 | 涨跌(元/吨) 28 | 张跃幅 3. 32% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1456 | 31.5 | 2. 21% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1245012 | 555558 | 10571 | | | | J2509 | 27440 | 48461 | 381 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 山西仓单成本 | 1200 894 | 1180 894 | 20 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 927 | 927 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1 ...

| 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月09日 | | 影丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PX | なな女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 瓶片 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | PVC | なな女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇盘面持续下跌。江浙地区MTO ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Consolidation [1] - LPG: Consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Fluctuation [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [1][26] - Soda ash: Short on rebound [1][28] - Caustic soda: Continue to rebound [1][31] - Methanol: Bearish [1][34] - Urea: Short on rebound [1][3] - Asphalt: Short on rebound [1][3] Core Views of the Report - The production increase pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, while there is support in the short - term peak season; LPG follows the cost - end oil price to consolidate; L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with supply - demand imbalance; PVC is under supply - side pressure; PX is oscillating with supply - demand changing from tight to loose; PTA/PR and ethylene glycol are expected to be bearish due to supply - demand changes; glass has policy expectations but is constrained by reality; soda ash is under high - supply and high - inventory pressure; caustic soda continues to rebound with supply - demand factors; methanol is bearish due to supply and demand feedback; urea has high supply pressure; asphalt has short - term rebound but long - term cost - end pressure [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated within a range, with WTI down 1.40%, Brent up 0.82%, and SC up 1.72% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August, but the oil price has strong support below. It is currently in the consumption peak season, and Saudi Arabia raised the official OSP in August. The demand growth rate decreased slightly, and the US inventory data showed mixed changes [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as the trade war and new energy impact, the supply is expected to be in excess, with the price fluctuating between 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, so lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [510 - 530] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 8, the PG main contract closed at 4184 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the main factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, but there is short - term support. The PDH profit improved slightly, the开工 rate decreased, and the inventory decreased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the valuation of LPG is high. In the short - term, it is oscillating. Lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. PG focuses on [4130 - 4230] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and although the cost support improves, the supply - demand is weak. The device maintenance intensity increases, but new devices are planned to be put into production in the medium - long term, so the expectation is weak [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered. L focuses on [7200 - 7300] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The closing prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract's position and some prices in the spot market also decreased [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, but the cost support improves due to the rising international oil price. The supply pressure still exists, and new capacity is planned to be added in the third quarter [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound, and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP focuses on [7000 - 7100] [14]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The production enterprise's start - up change is limited, the inventory pressure increases in the off - season, the cost support weakens, and it is necessary to pay attention to new device production and policy changes [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound. V focuses on [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the PX09 contract decreased [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high. The demand of the PTA side weakens recently but is expected to improve. The supply - demand changes from tight to loose, and the inventory is still high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term. PX focuses on [6650 - 6750] [19]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the TA09 contract also decreased [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices makes the supply abundant. The downstream polyester production reduction and the decline of terminal weaving start - up rate lead to weakening demand. The inventory is in a neutral state, and the processing fee is high with a weakening expectation [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. TA focuses on [4680 - 4750] [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the EG09 contract decreased [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand side weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. The low inventory supports the price [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. EG focuses on [4240 - 4290] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation decreased, and the futures price increased slightly, with the basis narrowing and the warehouse receipt unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy expects to improve the supply - demand pattern, but the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates at a low level, the inventory decreases, and the fuel price and spot price changes have an impact on the market [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1020 - 1050] [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - alkali spot price increased, the futures price increased slightly, the main basis remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt and forecast decreased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy hype effect weakens, and the soda ash factory accumulates inventory again. The supply is still high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is average, and the terminal consumption is weak [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on [1170 - 1200] [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price increased, the futures price center moved up, the basis strengthened, and the warehouse receipt increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure due to high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is a de - stocking expectation in the maintenance season. The demand of the main downstream alumina increases, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support moves down, and the inventory decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH focuses on [2400 - 2450] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and overseas device loads are high. The arrival volume may be low in early July but is expected to start accumulating inventory later. The demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on [2340 - 2380] [36]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The maintenance intensity increases recently, but the daily output is expected to return to a high level. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand is also lower than before, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost has some support [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. UR focuses on [1740 - 1780] [3]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term, and the asphalt inventory decreases, but the long - term cost - end pressure is large. The supply increases, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short positions. BU focuses on [3550 - 3650] [3].