Group 1: Glass Futures - The glass 2601 futures fluctuated upward on November 3rd, reaching a maximum of 1,126 yuan/ton and closing slightly higher. The rise was due to the temporary dominance of the expected side in the long - short game [3]. - The core drivers are: spot price cuts stimulating demand, with many regions' sales - to - production ratios exceeding 100%, and mid - downstream replenishment providing short - term price support; coal price increases pushing up production costs and providing a rigid bottom for low prices; the approaching industry meeting spurring policy - favorable expectations, and some funds closing positions in advance to avoid risks, leading to a rise with reduced positions [3]. - Four coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area stopped feeding on November 2nd, involving a daily production capacity of 2,400 tons. After the news, local glass traders stocked up, and the sales - to - production ratio on Sunday reached 166%, the highest since the National Day holiday [3]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the implementation and breakthrough of industry meeting policies, and short - long opportunities should be grasped [4]. - Technically, the glass futures rose and then fell today, and may maintain a volatile operation in the short term. The daily melting change is small, inventory has decreased this week, and future drivers mainly lie in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [19][20]. Group 2: A - share Index - A - share's three major indexes opened lower and moved lower in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index turned positive first near noon, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index followed in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small阳线 with a long lower shadow. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Group 3: Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilizing, and investors can buy on dips [12]. Group 4: Iron Ore - After the holiday, there is no actual improvement at the terminal, and hot metal production may decline periodically. Technically, it fell back near the previous high, and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [15]. - In the short term, there are long - term agreement negotiations and accident disturbances on the supply side, but in the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply still exists [16]. Group 5: Eggs - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and the supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. However, based on the current price and cost, future egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken. Investors can grasp short - long opportunities [23]. Group 6: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. Downstream paper mills' price increases boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the port inventory reduction is still lower than expected, and the purchasing side is cautious. Pulp is expected to continue to operate weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [26].

免费声明:宏源规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规律经营机构。已具备知货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公 司时这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的容观、公正,但文中的观点、特论和难议 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：期市有风险 人市需要按2 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据采源:SMM W 娱与不锈钢日评20251103:成本支撑较弱,不锈钢空单持有 | 2025-10-31 2025-10-30 交易日期(日) 2025-10-24 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货近月合约 收盘价 120290.00 120660.00 121860.00 -370.00 ~ n | | | | | | 期货连一合约 收盘价 120590.00 120980.00 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving factors. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is negative, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to be volatile with no clear drivers. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is positive, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a 0.72% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 80.87%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease. Some plants were under maintenance, increasing the maintenance loss [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%, and the PE packaging film start - up rate increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 10.07% year - on - year decrease and a 7.58% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory was 527,400 tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease and a 9.18% year - on - year decrease. The import cargo warehouse inventory also decreased [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 309, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased, while the methanol - based cost decreased. The main reason for the increase in oil prices is the US sanctions on Russia and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week and a 17.79% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.06%, a 1.12% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61%. The demand for medical products and cold - chain packaging increased, and the BOPP industry's start - up rate increased steadily. However, the plastic - weaving industry was affected by rainy weather [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 595,100 tons, a 6.80% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 2.25% month - on - month, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 7.80% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 20, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.08%, PE futures price decreased by 1.00%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 1.22%, and ethylene CFR decreased by 3.85% [5]. - **Production and Start - up Rates**: PP production decreased by 5.22%, PE production decreased by 0.72%, PP start - up rate increased by 4.83%, and PE start - up rate decreased by 0.73% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 5.88%, PE social inventory increased by 0.10%, HDPE social inventory decreased by 3.16% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass has resilient demand and low valuation, with supply and demand providing support, so it is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term [3] - For soda ash, short - term supply and demand are acceptable and the valuation is low, but the supply is at a high level and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Glass - **Supply**: Production is stable, with a daily output of 161,300 tons this week, the same as on the 23rd. The industry start - up rate is 76.35% and the capacity utilization rate is 80.63%, both unchanged from the 23rd. There are no changes in production lines this week, and next week's production is expected to remain stable [3] - **Demand**: The peak - season demand is supported, and the recent production and sales fluctuate with prices. Overall, downstream demand has strong resilience [3] - **Inventory**: Inventory is slightly reduced. Enterprise inventory is 65.79 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 823,000 heavy cases (-1.24%), and a year - on - year increase of 28.85%. The inventory days are 28 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [3] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis strengthened this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [3] - **Valuation**: Valuation is low [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Macro sentiment is changeable, and the impact has temporarily subsided [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Mainly buy on dips in the short - term; Arbitrage: None; Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Supply is at a high level. This week's soda ash production is 757,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons (2.29%). There are no planned overhauls next week, and with some enterprises increasing their loads, the overall supply is expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. Downstream replenishment demand provides support [4] - **Inventory**: Inventory fluctuates. The total manufacturer inventory is 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons (-0.01%) compared to last Thursday. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation as supply recovers [4] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [4] - **Valuation**: Valuation is low [4] - **Macro and Policy**: Macro sentiment is changeable, and the impact has temporarily subsided [4] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Short - term supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: None; Risk concerns: Alkali plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Glass**: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1083 (-9), and the Shahe spot price was 1048 (-4). The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated, and the basis weakened [6][21] - **Soda Ash**: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1225 (-4), and the Shahe spot price was 1185 (0). The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated, and the basis strengthened [11][21] PART THREE: Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - **Supply**: Production is stable. The daily output of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the start - up rate and capacity utilization rate are unchanged. Production profit fluctuates and weakens [23][24] - **Demand**: Downstream deep - processing orders are average, and real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor. However, inventory is slightly reduced [27][28] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Supply is at a high level. This week's production is 757,600 tons, with an increase in both light and heavy alkali production. Next week, supply is expected to increase. Alkali plant profits are decreasing [31][33] - **Demand**: Overall demand is neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish and volatile [2][4] - Rebar: Subject to sector sentiment, wide - range volatile [2][8] - Hot - rolled coil: Subject to sector sentiment, wide - range volatile [2][9] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly volatile due to sector sentiment and supply - demand factors [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Weakly volatile due to sector sentiment and supply - demand factors [2][13] - Coke: Bullish and volatile [2][17] - Coking coal: Bullish and volatile due to macro and sector theme resonance [2][18] - Logs: Volatile and fluctuating [2][20] 2. Core Views - The report provides daily investment outlooks for various black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. It analyzes their market trends based on fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][9] 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 800 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan (- 0.31%). The open interest decreased by 11,268 lots. Imported and domestic spot prices mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The RB2601 rebar futures closed at 3,106 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.48%), and HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3,308 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 0.72%). Spot prices in some regions declined. Some basis and spread values changed [9] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 30, steel output increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. Five departments supported commercial real estate REIT issuance. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the steel industry. In September 2025, China's steel exports increased in volume and decreased in price, while imports increased in volume and decreased slightly in price [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Ferrosilicon 2601 futures closed at 5,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and silicomanganese 2601 futures closed at 5,772 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads changed [13] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 31, 2025, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices had different changes in different regions. In October, the production of silicomanganese in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia had some adjustments. The average start - up rate of ferrosilicon in October was 50.83%, with a slight decrease from September. Manganese ore inventory decreased [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: JM2601 coking coal futures closed at 1,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.2%), and J2601 coke futures closed at 1,777 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan (- 0.5%). Spot prices and various spreads changed [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both coke and coking coal [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: For different log contracts, prices, trading volumes, and open interests had different changes. Spot prices of various log types in different regions were mostly stable or had small declines [21] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market lacks clear directional drivers. The supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals limit the upside potential of prices. The market is expected to continue in a weak and fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will trigger more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options opportunistically [39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 ranged from 1,221 to 1,260 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. As of the afternoon close on November 31, 2025, the contract fell 4 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.33%, closing at 1,225 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 2.29%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, up 1.95% from the previous week [7][10]. Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 815,600 tons, up 15,200 tons week - on - week, while heavy soda ash inventory was 886,400 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week [8][15]. 3. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Situation Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, with light soda ash production at 337,800 tons (up 7,200 tons week - on - week) and heavy soda ash production at 419,700 tons (up 9,800 tons week - on - week). - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, with the ammonia - soda process at 91.09% (unchanged week - on - week), the co - production process at 77.90% (up 1.67% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons at 90.27% (up 2.29% week - on - week) [10][12]. Inventory Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,600 tons or 0.57%. Light soda ash inventory increased by 15,200 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 5,600 tons [15]. Shipment Analysis - On October 30, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 757,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.53%. The overall shipment rate was 100.01%, up 0.23 percentage points week - on - week [16]. Profit Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 41.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.30 yuan/ton. - As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process was - 165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [20][24]. 4. Downstream Industry Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the 23rd. From the 24th to the 30th, the float glass production was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged week - on - week but a year - on - year increase of 1.28%. - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million weight boxes or 3.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous period [27][31]. 5. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most products in the domestic soda ash market remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 8 yuan/ton or 1.05% to 770 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 36 yuan/ton or 1.65% to 2,219 yuan/ton. The price of float glass decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 1.68% to 1,167 yuan/ton [37]. 6. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The core contradiction of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" in the fundamentals remained prominent. - Supply pressure increased further, with weekly production and capacity utilization rising. Demand improvement was limited, and new orders were insufficient. - Inventory pressure was not relieved, with the total inventory of manufacturers continuing to accumulate, especially the inventory of light soda ash. - Profit conditions deteriorated further, with both the ammonia - soda and co - production processes in deeper losses. Cost support was not enough to reverse the supply - demand pattern [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead price has faced downward pressure due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and better refinery profits. The zinc price lacks sustained upward momentum due to weak demand and hawkish remarks from the Fed [1]. - For lead, it is recommended to hold previous short positions. For zinc, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.23%. The Shanghai lead basis was -165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai lead contracts showed various changes. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 220,300 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 21,645 tons, also unchanged [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, causing slight fluctuations in primary lead production. For secondary lead, supply has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume operations. The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises have decent operations, with demand showing an increase [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.04%. The Shanghai zinc basis was -145 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai zinc contracts changed. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.97% to 67,774 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment [1] Core Views - For gold, the long - term support logic remains unchanged due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank purchases, and short - term entry opportunities exist. For silver, long - term global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap. Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to copper concentrate shortages and green copper demand. Zinc has limited up - and - down space in the short - term and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long - term. Lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short - term. Aluminum prices are relatively strong in the short - term, while lithium carbonate prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [1]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After risk events landed, the market sentiment was basically released, and gold and silver fluctuated narrowly. Short - term attention should be paid to US data and government shutdown [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The new gold tax policy affects different usage and user groups. The US government shutdown is in a stalemate, which affects Fed policies and market expectations. In the long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Both gold and silver have stopped falling in the short - term. Medium - and short - term entry can be considered, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper fluctuated at high levels [7]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate shortages continue as major mining companies lower production expectations. There is an expected decline in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter. The domestic smelting industry calls for anti - involution and possible production cuts. Downstream demand shows a pattern of high - price aversion and low - price purchasing [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try long positions on dips near the 84500 - 85500 range. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging can use options for protection, and strict risk control is required. The short - term focus ranges are [84500, 88500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10500, 11200] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuated narrowly [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the processing fee has dropped due to smelter winter stockpiling. Refined zinc enterprise profits are in a small - scale loss. Zinc ingot production is expected to increase, and consumption is entering the off - season. The overseas LME zinc inventory soft - squeeze risk has eased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc lacks a clear one - sided driving force in the short - term, with limited up - and - down space. In the long - term, it is a short - side allocation in the sector. The focus ranges are [22200, 22800] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2980, 3080] dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are cautiously optimistic, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cuts continue. Domestic production capacity is high, and terminal consumption is transitioning from peak season to off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are affected by the rainy season, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction and possible production cuts [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operating rates. The main operating range is [21000 - 21800] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are falling back [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts continue. Overseas nickel production policies are adjusted, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are accumulating. The stainless steel market shows a supply - and - demand weak situation, and terminal demand is weakening [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a significant reduction in positions and an enlarged decline at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, with continuous inventory reduction for 11 weeks and an expanding reduction range. Although supply is still growing, there are production declines in some regions. Terminal demand is strong, but the rumored resumption of production has a negative impact on the market [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see until the market stabilizes in the range of [80000 - 82000] [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年11月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-285 偏空 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience weak performance due to cost reduction. Short - term butadiene weakness will drive down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. In the context of a neutral fundamental pattern of butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. With weakened macro - drivers and a weak industrial chain fundamental background, butadiene rubber will operate weakly. The main focus in the future is whether the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber will improve periodically under the background of concentrated maintenance in November and a high NR - BR spread [4]. - In the medium to long term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium term [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Viewpoints on Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the current cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Sichuan Shun were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene plant of Qilu Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate decreased significantly. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64%. The production capacity utilization rate was 66.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76 percentage points. In the next cycle, it is expected that Zhenhua New Materials' plant will be shut down for maintenance, and there are expectations of maintenance for Maoming's butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant in November. The short - term shortage of some spot goods is expected to continue [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next cycle, with most enterprises maintaining their current production schedules. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will drive up the production capacity utilization rate. However, in November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and foreign trade orders are under - performing. Some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of October 29, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 30,900 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 6.90%. During this cycle, some production enterprises shut down or prepared to shut down, and the significant weakening of the raw material side led to the gradual restoration of production profits, driving some private production enterprises to sell at low prices. At the same time, affected by the approaching month - end and the weak future market, the negotiation focus of the spot side gradually declined, and the inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased significantly [4]. Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in butadiene arrivals, the dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation for the market is around 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. When the main BR2512 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (with a single - month holding cost of around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for holding spot goods and short - selling in the futures market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upper space of the market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation range is 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber is mainly estimated based on butadiene price * 1.02+(auxiliary agents + labor)=7,500 * 1.02 + 2,500≈10,200 yuan/ton. In terms of actual full cost, the fixed costs range from 1,500 to 2,500 yuan/ton depending on the factory, so the minimum cost is about 9,500 yuan/ton (7,500 * 1.02+1,800). Due to the significant contradictions in the short - term butadiene industry and the continuous decline of the price center, the lower limit of the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber continues to decline [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a medium - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The market may show wide - range fluctuations due to capital games during the day. The upper pressure level is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton (mainly following the trend of butadiene rubber spot), and the lower support level is 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton (anchored by the butadiene cost of butadiene rubber) [4]. - Cross - variety: The spread between NR - BR is at a high valuation, but due to insufficient drivers, it is expected to fluctuate [4]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints on Butadiene Supply - During the current cycle (October 24 - 30, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 104,200 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Guangzhou Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical remained shut down, but the output of Beifang Huajin, Qilu Petrochemical, and a Shandong petrochemical plant No. 2 resumed, leading to an increase in production. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 106,300 tons, continuing to increase compared to the current cycle. Sichuan Petrochemical is expected to restart after a short - term shutdown, and attention should be paid to the output of Fushun Petrochemical and the commissioning of new production capacity in South China. It is expected that domestic production will increase slightly [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the maintenance of butadiene rubber plants in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will decrease. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with little change [5]. Inventory - During the current cycle (October 23 - 29, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased, with a month - on - month increase of 14.23% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.47% compared to last week, and the enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly due to limited plant changes during the cycle. The inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 30.08% compared to last week. There were imported vessels arriving at ports during the week, and the rapid decline in the market led to slow turnover of some trade volumes, resulting in a significant increase in inventory. At the same time, the market expects that the import volume will still be abundant from October to November, so attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Viewpoint - In the medium to long term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium term [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing and has a low correlation with the raw material side [8]. - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production has been continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industrial chains at certain stages [10]. - From 2024 to 2025, many enterprises have added or are expected to add butadiene production capacity, with a total of 380,000 tons added in 2024 and 860,000 tons expected to be added in 2025 [12]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Supply of Butadiene Rubber - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber plants of various enterprises have changed. Some plants are shut down for maintenance, some are restarted, and some have future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical's plant is shut down for maintenance, Qilu Petrochemical's plant has restarted, and Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in November [41]. - The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown certain trends over time [42][43][44]. - The import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have their own characteristics over different time periods, and the weekly apparent demand also shows corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - The inventory of butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, and these inventories have changed over time [49][50][51]. Demand for Butadiene Rubber - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends over time [53][54].