1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of government bond futures is mainly for shock consolidation. The short - term is lack of momentum to push the market interest rate down continuously, and the subsequent trend depends on policy guidance. The government bond futures have strong bottom support due to various factors such as the expected future easing policy [4]. - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - biased - strong respectively, with an overall view of shock, mainly because of rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - biased - strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is shock - biased - strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. - The core logic is that last Friday, government bond futures rose across the board. The central bank announced a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, increasing medium - term liquidity and sending a signal of increased quantitative monetary easing, which boosted the investment demand for government bonds. However, there is insufficient short - term momentum to push market interest rates down. The subsequent trend of government bonds depends on policy guidance, and attention can be paid to the financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18. Currently, the uncertainty of the tariff outlook is deepening, domestic macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, the main tone of moderate monetary policy easing remains unchanged, and the market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong bottom support for government bond futures [4].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 玉米区间低多 生猪鸡蛋供给增量持续兑现 2025年06月07日 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 更多精彩内容 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 Ø 玉米 长线区间；中线低多；短线震荡偏强 观点：短期来看，新麦集中上市，市场流通粮源增多，小麦替代性价比较高，短期现货局部由弱转强、整体稳定。中期来看，进口谷物缩量+替代减量驱 动下国内供给宽松格局有望逐渐趋紧，现货进一步下跌空间十分有限。而且，当前盘面挤升水基本完成，或维持波段偏强运行；长期来看，政策粮源投 放+小麦替代预期或将限制价格向上空间，我国玉米仍然维持进口替代+种植成本的定价逻辑，重点关注政策导向。 策略：长线区间运行；中线维持低多思路；短线支撑压力并存，上方压力未有效突破或继续维持区间运行，2507合约2340-2350压力有效，下方支撑关注 2310-2320；2509合约2360-2370压力有效，下方支撑关注2330-2340；若有效突破压力则有望转强。 Ø 生猪 长线高空；中线区间；短线弱势延续 观点：短期来看，阶段性 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年06月05日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆一：东北市场大豆价格平稳，产区粮源较为紧张，农户忙于春耕 ，无暇售粮，贸易商收粮也较为困难，因此市场挺价意愿浓厚。销 区市场目前以 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 点评 5 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 34540 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.27%，持 仓减仓 2071 手至 65802 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格持稳在 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 1960 元 /吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7135 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.56%，持 仓减仓 3637 手至 18.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/吨，较上一 交易日下调 27 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 460 元/吨。西南丰水期电价下调带动复产，西北大厂将不同于往年 减产，下游采购存在较大缩量。预计工业硅下方支撑来自新疆大厂现金成 本线，上方压力源于高库存及供给增压压力加剧。6 月多晶硅自律会议将 再度召开，除企业自发减产外，在需求坍塌压力下，行业有望明确扩大限 产额度。工业硅边际压力下可维持逢高沽空思路，多晶硅关注减产消息， 近月受仓单限制，单边跌幅有限且波动加剧。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 班监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月6日 | | 不锈钢 | SS2507 | 盘面维持震荡,成本支撑供需矛盾仍存 | 主力参考12600-13200 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锡 | SN2507 | 供给恢复进度偏缓,以及宏观情绪回暖,锡价延续反弹 | 待情绪企稳后高空思路为主 | | | 原油 | SC2508 | 中美元首对话缓和市场担忧情绪,盘面短期无强趋势引导震荡 概率较大 | 中长期仍建议波段思路,震荡行情建议观望为主。 WTI上方压力给到[64,66],布伦特上端压力在 [67,69], SC压力位在 [475,485] | | | 尿素 | UR2509 | 短期上游继续累库,出口规模暂时难以上量对盘面支撑有限 | 中长期波段思路,短期仍在磨底,单边观望等待反 弹机会。主力合约波动调整到[1740,1850]附 | | | | | | 近,仅供参考 PX短期在6500-6900区间运行,高空对待: | | | PX | PX2509 | 供需边际转弱,价格承压,但现货偏紧格局下价格仍存支撑 | PX9-1关注反套 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月6日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年4月PVC产量为195.4977万吨，环比减少5.51%；本周样 本企业产能利用率为78.19%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量32.898万吨，环比 增加4.55%,乙烯法企业产量12.583万吨，环比减少2.07%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周 预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为46.15%，环比减少0.78个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 游型材开工率为39.25%，环比减少0.35个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 43.44%，环比减少1.87个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为73.89%，环比持 平，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开工率为75.85%，环比增加.429个百分点，高于历史 平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口价格价格占优；当前需求与历史平均水平接近。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-547元/吨，亏损环比减少11.00%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯 法利润为-505 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a treasury bond futures morning report released by Dayue Futures on June 6, 2025, covering market review, bond analysis, and future outlook [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts showed different trends. The 30 - year contract (TL2509) dropped 0.16%, while the 5 - year (TF2509) and 2 - year (TS2509) contracts rose 0.02% and 0.04% respectively [7] - The T2509 contract closed at 108.720, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 88,700 and an open interest of 293,116 [7] Group 3: Bond Analysis - Bank - to - bank major interest rates showed a mixed trend. Short - term bonds continued to warm up, with yields dropping over 1bp, while the 10 - year and above bonds were sluggish. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts rose 0.16%, 0.02%, and 0.04% respectively, but the 10 - year contract declined 0.01% [3] - On June 5, the central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan [3] - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were - 0.0721, - 0.0084, and - 0.0138 respectively, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was 0.6076, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] - The available deliverable bond balances of the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 13,594 billion, 14,935 billion, and 23,599 billion respectively, showing a neutral position [3] - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line was upward, showing a bullish signal [3] - The TS main contract had a net long position with increasing longs. The TF main contract had a net long position with increasing longs. The T main contract had a net long position with decreasing longs [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range, and the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. In April, the issuance of government bonds helped accelerate the growth of social financing scale. The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements. After the impact of the tariff war suspension was quickly released and the reserve - requirement and interest - rate cuts were implemented, the capital continued to be loose. With the central bank maintaining quantitative tools, the momentum for continuous adjustment in the bond market was limited. In the future, Treasury bond futures may fluctuate [4]

2025 年 6 月 6 日 对二甲苯：PXN 或继续走强 PTA：贸易环境预期改善，反套离场 MEG：反套离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-05 | 6540 | 4644 | 4283 | 6352 | 3489 | | 2025-06-04 | 6578 | 4670 | 4292 | 6408 | 3511 | | 2025-06-03 | 6524 | 4628 | 4306 | 6338 | 3466 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 日度变化 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.2 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 06 日 铅：区间运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16695 | 0.15% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1984 | -0.10% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 30915 | -4095 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5793 | 957 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 50484 | -2012 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 145526 | -1745 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -15 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -21.98 | -2.26 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -15 | 35 | 进口 ...

刚需采买及补库，现货升水涨至1000元/吨，社会库存下降明显。技术面，持仓减量低位回升，关注MA10 免责声明 阻力。操作上，建议暂时观望，或短线轻仓做多。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-06-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 258900 | 960 7月-8月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -100 | -220 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 31895 | 445 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 27843 | -3165 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 5209 | 185 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2605 | 0 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 8107 | -338 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 605 | -10 | | | 上 ...