投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 姓名：陈栋 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 12 月 12 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪占优 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15230 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.26%至 15230 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 15 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量增 ...

嘉化能源公告称，公司拟使用不超1亿元自有资金，在不影响正常经营、操作合法合规前提下，进行期 货套期保值和投资，交易品种为PVC、烧碱等。授权期限自股东会审议通过之日起1年，授权董事长在 额度内决策并实施。该议案已通过第十届董事会第十五次会议审议，尚需股东会审议。公司提醒，期货 交易存在市场、政策等风险，已制定相关制度控制风险。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal is expected to have a short - term adjustment. Although the procurement of US soybeans has started, the US market has doubts about the export prospects, and the weak export shipment data has led to the consolidation of US soybeans at a high level. The current supply is sufficient, but due to rumors of import delays and South American weather disturbances, the previous short positions can consider taking profits gradually [1][4]. - The rapeseed meal is also in a short - term adjustment, following the trend of soybean meal. The fundamentals have no major fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the import policy of Australian rapeseed and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][7]. - The palm oil is in short - term consolidation. The expected production reduction in Southeast Asia in December limits its adjustment space, and attention should be paid to the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month [1][9]. - The soybean oil is expected to have a short - term bullish oscillation. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and with the end of the US Department of Agriculture's December report and the stabilization of the palm oil market, it shows a bullish tendency [1]. - The rapeseed oil is in a range - bound oscillation. The import supply is relatively low year - on - year, and it is not advisable to blindly short sell [1]. - The cotton is expected to oscillate strongly. The international market focuses on weather, and the domestic new cotton inspection is more than half completed with strong sales. However, attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback risk in mid - and late December [1][13]. - The jujube is expected to have a short - term rebound. Although the high inventory still suppresses the price, most of the premium caused by the speculation of production reduction has been squeezed out, and short - term rebound opportunities can be focused on [1][17]. - The live pig is recommended to be sold short on rebounds. The short - and medium - term supply pressure is high, and the 01 contract should avoid short - term long - position risks, while the 03 contract can be short - sold after a rebound. Attention should also be paid to the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 937 million tons, a decrease of 20.60 million tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 715.52 million tons, a decrease of 2.51% from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 116.19 million tons, a decrease of 3.43% from last week. The physical inventory days of feed enterprises increased [4]. - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals have little change, the oil mill's crushing volume remains high, and the de - stocking process of soybean meal is slow, which suppresses the increase of the spot basis [4]. - Rumors of 15 - day import delays and South American weather disturbances have led to a temporary halt in the decline of soybean meal, and previous short positions can consider taking profits [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 5, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons, and the unexecuted contract was 0 million tons [7]. - The spot market is dull, with weak downstream purchasing willingness and limited effective demand. There is no strong driving force and it follows the trend of soybean meal. The short - term trend is considered to be above 2270 yuan [1][7]. Palm Oil - As of December 5, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 68.37 million tons, an increase of 4.62% from last week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 decreased by 16.41% compared with the same period last month [9]. - In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, import, and export decreased, while the inventory increased. The expected production reduction in December limits the adjustment space, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of stabilizing and going long [1][9]. Cotton - International: In the US, the new cotton harvest is nearly complete, with a progress of 79% and a inspection progress of about 40.2%. In India, the new cotton daily listing volume is 16,000 - 20,000 tons. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new cotton [11]. - Domestic: The new cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 4.95 million tons, and the sales progress is fast. The total production is expected to increase by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. The import volume in October was 223,000 tons, and the inventory has increased [12]. - The ICE market is expected to oscillate. The domestic cost support is strengthened, but attention should be paid to the production increase forecast. The demand shows resilience, and long positions can be considered on dips, with attention to the medium - and long - term recovery opportunities [1][13]. Jujube - Supply: The acquisition in some areas is ending, and the prices in some areas are weakening. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week is 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons from last week [16]. - Demand: The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly new jujubes, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The demand in the Ruyifang market is average [16]. - The high inventory suppresses the price, but most of the premium has been squeezed out. The short - term rebound opportunities can be focused on while maintaining a bearish attitude in the long - term [1][17]. Live Pig - Short - and medium - term: The supply pressure is high. The planned slaughter in December increases by 3.2%. The supply pressure will be gradually released around the Winter Solstice. The mid - term supply pressure will be relieved as the number of new - born piglets decreases [20][21]. - Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million heads, and the slaughter pressure at the end of the year is high. The industry is still in the early stage of losses [20]. - Demand: The pickling and enema activities in the southwest region are increasing, and the market is turning to a situation of both supply and demand being prosperous [20]. - The 01 contract should avoid short - term long - position risks, the 03 contract can be short - sold after a rebound, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The log market is in a low - level shock state [1]. - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral perspective [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2601 contract on 2025/12/11, the closing price was 746, with a daily decline of 1.3% and a weekly decline of 2.5%; the trading volume was 7123, with a daily decline of 40.1% and a weekly increase of 142%; the open interest was 14509, with a daily increase of 11.0% and a weekly decline of 5%. Similar details are provided for the 2603 and 2605 contracts [2]. - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spread between spot and 2601 contract on 2025/12/11 was - 16, with a daily decline of 62.5% and a weekly decline of 61%. Similar spread data is presented for other contract combinations [2]. - **Spot Market**: Various types of logs and wood squares in different regions (Shandong and Jiangsu) showed mostly stable prices with some minor fluctuations. For example, the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was priced at 740 yuan/m³ on 2025/12/11, with a daily change of 0.0% and a weekly decline of 1.3% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th, 2025, with important leaders in attendance [4].

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 4 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 QE，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。 | | | 长线持有 | 印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割逻辑。市场押注降息持续和供需缺口 | | | 长线持有 连续 | 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。全球经济刺激、流动性维持宽松， | | ★★ | | 长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 宏微共振下，铜续创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 | | ★ | | 求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 国内经济工作会议召开，重提反内卷并强调实施更加积极的财政政策。锌 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情》 金投白银网(http://ag.cngold.org)为您提供最新白银期货价格、白银期货合约、白银期货交易以及白银期 货走势，更多白银期货行情敬请关注：白银期货专栏 备注：以上白银的价格仅供参考，请以官方报价为准。如对白银投资有疑问可咨询本站客服。 金投白银网提供今日白银期货价格走势_今天白银期货价格走势（2025年12月12日） 今日白银期货价格查询（2025年12月12日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 昨收价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 14776.00 | 15033.00 | 14486.00 | 14488.00 | ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 集运指数（欧线）：短期情绪偏乐观，中期震荡市 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2512 | 1,653.1 | -0.37% | 241 | 3,031 | -138 | 0.08 | 0.10 | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,689.0 | 2.04% | 18,659 | 31,623 | 241 | 0.59 | 1.14 | | | EC2604 | 1,092.7 | 0.87% | 2,137 | 19,277 | 58 | 0.11 | 0. ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑： ...

| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月11日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉突破上行,主力05大幅增仓;棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业 库存并不高,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持稳,关注春节前需求能 否出现小旺季。郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36万吨， 环比增加175.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly, cotton has broken through and moved upward, while hog prices remain weak. Different varieties have different influencing factors and market outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly due to customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and potential overseas demand growth. Cotton has broken through and moved upward because of strong downstream demand. Hog prices are weak as supply growth exceeds demand growth [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Rapeseed Oil: Strong Rise - Focus: The rapeseed oil led the overall rise in the oil and fat sector. The main 2605 contract rebounded strongly, driven by customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and expected overseas demand growth. - Reasons: Customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports led to some port rejections, boosting bullish sentiment. Technical oversold conditions caused a rebound. Germany's new bill may increase rapeseed oil demand. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased, with the inventory at 40.6 million tons at the end of the 49th week, a 4.47% week - on - week decline. Palm oil and soybean oil also rebounded [2]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has strengthened technically. Look for support levels to go long with a light position. Close short positions in palm oil and conduct short - term trading [2]. (2) Soybean Meal: Near - term Strong, Long - term Weak - Focus: Soybean meal contracts show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The January contract rose due to stronger raw materials, while the 2605 contract remained weak. - Reasons: Abundant domestic imported soybeans. Rumors of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans drove up the price of soybean No. 2 futures and near - term soybean meal contracts. The 2605 contract is under pressure as it corresponds to the peak period of South American soybean imports next year [3]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of soybean meal is technically weak. Continue to hold short positions with a light position [3]. (3) Hogs: Weak Downward - Focus: The main 2603 contract of hogs is moving downward weakly due to abundant supply. - Reasons: High hog inventory, scale pig enterprises' year - end sales push, and concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured hogs lead to sufficient supply. Although terminal consumption such as southern bacon - making and northern sausage - making increases, the increase in consumption is less than the increase in supply [6]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of hogs is weak. Enter short positions for the short - term and set stop - losses [6]. (4) Eggs: Near - term Weak, Long - term Strong - Focus: The main 2603 contract of eggs fluctuates narrowly, and the weak trend remains unchanged. - Reasons: High laying - hen inventory leads to high supply pressure. Although market demand increases near the end of the year, the latest data shows a 0.70% week - on - week decline in old - hen出栏 as of December 4. There are still uncertainties in capacity reduction [7][9]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of eggs is technically weak. Short with a light position [9]. (5) Sugar: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates at a low level due to the supply pressure of new sugar. - Reasons: Seasonal supply pressure of sugar is high as 64 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started crushing. Although end - of - year stocking demand is approaching, it limits the downward space of sugar prices [10]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of sugar is trading sideways at a low level. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading [10]. (6) Cotton: Breaking Upward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of cotton has broken through and moved upward, supported by demand resilience. - Reasons: China's cotton harvesting is almost finished. As of December 4, the national cotton sales rate is 37.3%, a 21.9 - percentage - point year - on - year increase, indicating strong downstream consumption. Improved Sino - US economic and trade relations are beneficial for cotton textile exports. Xinjiang textile enterprises have high operating rates and stable profits, with year - end restocking needs [12]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of cotton has opened up upward space. Go long on dips [12].