Group 1 - The government is promoting consumption through various subsidies and discounts, particularly during the "May Day" holiday, encouraging consumers to purchase electronics and home appliances with significant savings [1][2] - Banks are actively participating in the promotion of consumer spending by offering credit card discounts and cashback incentives, enhancing the overall shopping experience for consumers [2][3] - The collaboration between financial institutions and technology platforms, such as the partnership between Bank of China and Tencent, aims to provide consumers with additional benefits like interest-free installments and discounts on various products [3] Group 2 - Agricultural Bank of China reported a significant amount of 1,549 billion yuan in credit card transactions related to the trade-in program by the end of March, indicating strong consumer engagement in this initiative [3] - The banking sector is focusing on expanding financial services to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in traditional sectors like automotive and home appliances, as well as emerging sectors such as tourism and elder care [4] - The leadership of Agricultural Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining a good growth momentum in consumer loans to meet the housing needs of residents and support consumption upgrades [4]

央视网消息为加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，推动以旧换新政策直达快享，今年浙江省结合自身实际，又相继出台了各自领域实施细则，4月30日，浙江省 人民政府新闻办公室召开浙江省消费品以旧换新政策吹风会，具体体现在"三个加量"： 一是补贴品类加量。在补贴品类方面，浙江省将3C数码产品纳入补贴范围，涵盖手机、智能手表等品类，单件产品限价6000元。家居补贴范围从智能家居 延伸至传统家居，全省补贴品类总数从国家政策的12类扩展至85类，各地还可自主增补，目前已新增60余个品类。 二是补贴力度加量。电动自行车成为重点倾斜领域。新购车辆补贴比例由20%提高至40%，补贴上限从500元升至1200元。消费者通过"报废换新"方式购置 即可享受补贴。同时整合商家、平台、金融机构三重优惠，最大限度惠及消费者，提升群众获得感。 三是参与商家加量。今年全国性电商平台从9家增至20余家，更有50余个品牌商家开设浙江专区。目前全省已有1.8万经营主体、3万余个销售网点参与活 动，线上线下渠道协同发力。 同时，浙江还对相关工作流程进行了优化。针对补贴兑付慢问题，建立全流程管控机制：汽车领域确保20个工作日内到账；对旧房装修和适老化改造领域的 资 ...

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The second round of coke price increases has started, but the downstream steel mills have strong resistance, and the implementation after the May Day holiday is expected to face difficulties. The coke futures price is expected to maintain a downward trend under the expectation of crude steel production control. - The main - producing area coal mines have normal production and stable supply. The coking coal spot market is weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2505 closed at 1574.0, up 5.0 from the previous day; J2509 closed at 1655T, down 9.0 from the previous day. The 2509 - contract coking profit was 250.1 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Coke Spot**: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. The Rizhao Port coke warehouse receipt price was 1469 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day. - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2505 closed at 887.5, up 7.0 from the previous day; JM2509 closed at 932.0, down 15.0 from the previous day. - **Coking Coal Spot**: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of the best - quality warehouse receipt in Shanxi was 946 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [2][3] Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.4, up 4.23 from the previous day, a 1.76% increase. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.5, up 0.07 from the previous day, a 0.15% increase. The inventory of the full - sample independent coking plants decreased by 2.23%. - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: The daily average output of 110 coal - washing plants was 53.4, down 1.3 from the previous day, a 2.57% decrease. The inventory of 523 mines increased by 6.38%. [2] Important News - The State Council has issued policies related to the power market, aiming to achieve full coverage of the power spot market by the end of 2025 and relax market price limits in some areas. - Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have received notices from major US retailers to resume shipments, and the new import tariff costs will be borne by US customers. - On April 29, the main port iron ore transactions increased by 30.8% month - on - month, and the construction steel transactions of 237 mainstream traders decreased by 7.3% month - on - month. [4][5] Trading Strategies - **Coke**: The second - round price increase is facing difficulties in implementation. The steel mills' iron - making output is high, and the coke demand is strongly supported. The coke enterprises' production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The futures price is expected to decline under the crude - steel production control expectation. - **Coking Coal**: The coal mines' supply is stable, the market trading activity is low, the inventory is increasing, and the short - term coal price is expected to be weakly stable. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]

早盘速递 2025/4/30 热点资讯 1. 近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今年第二批810亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续大力支 持消费品以旧换新。下一步，国家发展改革委将充分发挥"两新"部际协调机制作用，强化统筹推进和跟踪调度，督促各地各 有关部门加快已拨资金审核兑付，切实减轻企业垫资压力，确保真金白银优惠直达消费者，推动消费品以旧换新政策发挥更大 效果。 2. 中国人民银行发布数据显示，2025年第一季度全国新发放商业性个人住房贷款加权平均利率为3.11%。 3. 外交部发言人郭嘉昆强调，中方多次阐明关税战、贸易战没有赢家。这场关税战是美方发起的，如果美方想通过对话谈判 解决问题，就应该停止威胁施压，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方开展对话。 4. 高盛最新研报表示，美国3月份商品贸易逆差扩大幅度超过预期。三月份货物进出口双双增长。贸易逆差扩大的主要原因是 消费品进口增加，这可能反映了在关税上调之前进口的"抢跑"。总体而言，我们将美国第一季度GDP跟踪预测下调了0.6个百 分点至-0.8%（季度环比年化）。美国GDP数据将于30日晚间公布。 5. 巴基斯坦信息部长Attaull ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 政府债务周度观察 第二批消费品以旧换新资金下达 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 17 周（4/21-4/27）-1068 亿，第 18 周 （4/28-5/4）600 亿。截至第 17 周（4/21-4/27）广义赤字累计 3.2 万 亿，进度 26.7%。 政府债净融资第 17 周（4/21-4/27）-193 亿，第 18 周（4/28-5/4）927 亿。截至第 17 周（4/21-4/27）累计 4.8 万亿。日前发改委会同财政部 已向地方追加下达今年第二批 810 亿超长期特别国债资金，用于消费品 以旧换新。今年前两批消费品以旧换新资金一共下达超过 1600 亿元。 国债第 17 周（4/21-4/27）净融资-1818 亿，第 18 周（4/28-5/4）0 亿。 截至第 17 周（4/21-4/27）累计 1.7 万亿，进度 26.0%。 地方债净融资第 17 周（4/21-4/27）1625 亿，第 18 周（4/28-5/4）927 亿。截至第 17 周（4/21-4/27）累计 3.1 万亿，超出去年同期 2.1 万亿。 新增一般债第 17 周（4/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is in a stage of simultaneous growth in supply and demand and benign inventory digestion, with potential support for aluminum products [6] - For the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, consider light - position short - term long trading at low prices; for the Alumina main contract, consider light - position oscillating trading [6] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed an oscillating trend, with a weekly change of - 0.6%, closing at 19,910 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 4.11%, closing at 2,729 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, Trump relaxed automobile tariff policies, and the US reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 81 billion yuan in super - long - term special treasury bond funds. Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite will seasonally decrease later. The alumina market has a slight contraction in supply and a steady increase in demand. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of simultaneous growth in supply and demand and inventory digestion [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - term long trading at low prices for the Shanghai Aluminum main contract and light - position oscillating trading for the Alumina main contract [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Movement**: As of April 30, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum closing price was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (0.33%) from April 23. As of April 29, 2025, the LME Aluminum closing price was 2,465.5 US dollars/ton, up 85.5 US dollars/ton (3.59%) from April 23. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 8.11, up 0.27 from April 23 [9][10] - **Position Changes**: As of April 30, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 512,828 lots, down 15,640 lots (2.96%) from April 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 12,582 lots, down 875 lots from April 23 [13] - **Price Spread Changes**: As of April 30, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 2,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from April 23. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,310 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton from April 23 [18] - **Spot Price Movement**: As of April 30, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,090 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton (0.7%) from April 23. The spot discount was 20 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [21] - **Inventory Changes**: As of April 29, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 417,575 tons, down 14,125 tons (3.27%) from April 22. As of April 30, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 175,857 tons, down 2,740 tons (1.53%) from the previous week. As of April 28, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 610,000 tons, down 31,000 tons (4.84%) from April 21. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 68,563 tons, down 9,255 tons (11.89%) from April 23. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 250,875 tons, down 1,200 tons (0.48%) from April 22 [25] 3. Industry Situation - **Bauxite**: In March 2025, the monthly bauxite imports were 16.4657 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.26% and a year - on - year increase of 39.06%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative bauxite imports were 47.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.93% [29] - **Alumina**: As of April 30, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,745 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton (2.38%) from April 23. In March 2025, the alumina output was 7.4752 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative alumina output was 22.5959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In March 2025, the alumina imports were 11,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 96.31%. The alumina exports were 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.86% and a year - on - year increase of 114.29%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative alumina imports were 77,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87.94% [32][35] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum imports were 222,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.94%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum imports were 361,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51%. In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum exports were 8,700 tons. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum exports were 21,000 tons. In 2024 from January to November, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 295,100 tons. In March 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 374,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 1.1066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [38][43] - **Aluminum Products**: In March 2025, the aluminum products output was 598,170 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum products output was 1.5405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In March 2025, the aluminum products imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%. The exports were 510,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum products imports were 950,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. The exports were 1.36 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [46] - **Aluminum Alloys**: In March 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 165,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 414,400 tons. In March 2025, the aluminum alloy imports were 89,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. The exports were 18,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.93%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative aluminum alloy imports were 280,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.81%. The exports were 53,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [49] - **Real Estate**: In March 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.96, an increase of 0.17 from the previous month and 2.1 from the same period last year. From January to March 2024, the new housing construction area was 129.964559 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.8%. The housing completion area was 130.602722 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51% [53] - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to March 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 11.5% year - on - year. In March 2025, Chinese automobile sales were 2,915,476 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The automobile production was 3,005,833 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% [56] 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillating movement of aluminum prices in the future, consider constructing a double - selling strategy to short volatility [60]

Market Overview - On April 29, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index also fell by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.13%[3]. - The trading volume on April 30 was 1.04 trillion CNY, a decrease of approximately 40 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1]. Sector Performance - Industries such as beauty care, machinery, media, and light industry saw significant gains, while public utilities, oil, coal, and social services experienced notable declines[1]. - The majority of sectors showed limited upward movement, indicating a weak market structure with most sectors declining over the past five days[1]. Capital Flow - On April 29, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 4.695 billion CNY, while net inflows into the Shenzhen Stock Exchange were 4.105 billion CNY[4]. - The top three sectors for capital inflow were IT services, general equipment, and automotive parts, while the top three sectors for outflow were electricity, securities, and liquor[4]. Policy and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 81 billion CNY in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade program[5]. - The construction of the electricity spot market is set to accelerate, with specific deadlines for various regions to transition to formal operations by 2025 and 2026[6][7]. Industry Insights - Canalys predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above functionalities in the Chinese market will reach 62%, a significant increase from 2024[12]. - The issuance of new funds has surpassed 300 billion CNY this year, with nearly half allocated to equity funds, indicating a recovery in the active equity fund issuance market[15].

中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议要求，加大资金支持力 度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。 推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，既利投资又促消费。 2024年2月召开的中央财经委员会第四次会议提出，要推动各类生产设备、服务设备更新和技术改造， 鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新，推动耐用消费品以旧换新。 "两新"政策加力扩围释放潜在消费需求 "中国14亿多人口的超大规模市场，通过多层次需求释放与创新协同，可以构建独特的消费扩张动 力。"上海财经大学讲席教授、中国消费经济学会副会长汪伟表示，要超越传统的需求刺激思维，通过 系统性政策框架提振消费信心、修复经济循环流动性。从长期来看，应明确推动经济系统从"重生产轻 消费"向"重消费与人的发展"转型，构建以人的全面发展、人与自然和谐共生为导向的新型发展模式。 配套服务协同发力创新模式驱动升级 "两新"政策持续落地见效，加大资金支持力度是关键一环。《金融时报》记者注意到，目前，已有电商 平台在资金端持续加力，为以旧换新上游企业提供资金周转支持。例如，京东日前推出国补商家"百亿 计划"，通过专项提额和息费补贴，满足从 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of iron ore are relatively healthy, and overseas trade risks are gradually easing. However, last Friday, there was a rumor of "crude steel production restrictions" in the market, which changed market sentiment and suppressed the raw material sector. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On April 29, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened higher, oscillated and fell back, and then rebounded, closing at 709.0 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The prices of major iron ore outer disks remained flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port increased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the red column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2509 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days [7][9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrivals at 45 ports rebounded. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil in the past 4 weeks decreased by 1.33% compared with the previous 4 weeks. It is expected that the future arrivals will basically remain at a medium level [10] - Demand: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased significantly and reached a new high since October 2023. Steel enterprises maintained strong production, and the demand for iron ore remained relatively strong [10] - Inventory: Last week, the available days of steel mill inventory increased by 1 day to 21 days. Steel mills still mainly replenished inventory on demand, and there was no obvious increase in inventory replenishment before the May Day holiday. Port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the port inventory will remain at the current level in the near future [11] 3.2 Industry News - On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that as of April 27, 24:00, the number of old-for-new cars nationwide reached 2.814 million, 12 types of household appliances reached 49.416 million, digital products such as mobile phones reached 37.855 million, home improvement and kitchen and bathroom "renewal" reached 40.906 million, and old-for-new electric bicycles exceeded 4.2 million, driving related consumer goods sales of about 720 billion yuan and supporting a 4.6% year-on-year increase in the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice to allocate an additional 81 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to local governments to support the old-for-new consumer goods program [12] - On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on carrying out a cleanup and rectification campaign against market access barriers to promote the construction of a unified national market. The focus of this cleanup and rectification is to eliminate various regulations and documents that violate the requirements of the market access system and various practices of local governments setting illegal market access barriers [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high-grade ore, low-grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the utilization rate of domestic mine production capacity, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports, the port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the tax-free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking production capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and production capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][17][21]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.69% to 120.980, the 10-year main contract up by 0.23% to 109.120, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.13% to 106.070, and the 2-year main contract slightly up by 0.01% to 102.332 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 10-year government bond "24附息国债 11" yield down by 2.10 basis points to 1.6200%, and the 3-year government bond "25附息国债 05" yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.4950% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 340.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a net injection of 120 billion yuan for the day [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates showed mixed movements, with the former declining by over 5 basis points and the latter rising by over 3 basis points due to month-end factors [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice to allocate an additional 81 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy [3] - The NDRC aims to enhance coordination and expedite the disbursement of funds to alleviate the financial burden on enterprises and ensure that benefits reach consumers directly [3] Operational Recommendations - Economic indicators for April, including credit and price data, are expected to face pressure, with a focus on domestic demand to offset external demand [4] - The government is likely to increase the issuance of existing bond balances, with May anticipated to be a peak for government bond supply in Q2 [4] Market Outlook - The market's main logic may shift towards fundamentals and policy, with overall volatility expected [5] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.55% and 1.75%, with potential for bond futures to remain strong [5] - Investors are advised to consider buying on dips, especially in light of the upcoming PMI index release, which is expected to be in the range of 48% to 50.5% [5]