Core Viewpoint - Bob Michele, the global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, expresses a lack of interest in buying long-term U.S. Treasuries, indicating that U.S. Treasury yields may rise [1] Group 1 - The current sentiment in the market suggests a potential increase in U.S. Treasury yields, which could impact investment strategies [1] - Michele's stance reflects a broader trend among investors who are cautious about long-duration bonds amid changing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily attributed to the "Trump premium" rather than economic cycles or inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Treasury Yields - The long-end Treasury yield increase cannot be solely explained by fundamental factors, as the current rise is significantly higher than typical scenarios of "recession" or "soft landing" [1][2]. - The recent economic growth in the U.S. is marginally weakening under fiscal stimulus, with soft data declines and tariff impacts not favoring long-term economic growth [2]. - The "Trump premium" is influenced by several factors, including Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, the passage of the "beautiful big law" leading to a projected $3.1 trillion deficit over the next decade, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's long-term reforms [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Treasury Yields - There is potential for further decline in Treasury yields, especially with the negative impacts of tariffs yet to fully materialize and the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts [4]. - The projected long-term deficit growth may not fully reflect the fiscal revenue from tariffs, suggesting that the actual deficit expansion might be less severe than anticipated [4]. - Long-term Treasury yields exceeding the nominal growth rate in the U.S. could lead to unsustainable interest payment pressures, indicating a need for a reduction in long-end rates [6]. Group 3: Long-term Debt Solutions - The U.S. may face several long-term debt resolution strategies, including painful deficit tightening, partial restructuring of interest payments, or yield curve control (YCC) [8]. - The likelihood of painful deficit tightening seems low under the current two-party electoral system, as reducing spending programs may not garner sufficient voter support [8].

美国联邦法院裁决阻止关税实施的消息提振市场风险情绪，避险需求随之减弱，黄金价格连续第四个交 易日下跌，创一周半以来新低。与此同时美联储会议纪要释放鹰派信号、美债收益率上行以及美元指数 重返100关口等多重因素共同施压金价。黄金近期持续走弱主要受到美元反弹与避险需求下降的双重影 响，但中长期支撑因素仍在积累，特别是在美联储维持高利率政策以及中东地缘政治紧张局势升级的背 景下。需重点关注本周五美国PCE物价指数的发布，该数据将成为研判美联储货币政策走向及黄金价格 走势的重要参考节点。 1.黄金建议回调3288-3293区域做多，止损在3280，目标看3305-3320，破位持有 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析 与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操 作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 黄金4小时K线图显示，布林通道呈现开口上行姿态，短期走势明显偏弱。从均线系统来看，短期均线 呈多头排列形态，持续对金价构成压制，上行趋势得到进一步确认。操作上建议维持低多策略，重点关 注回调后的做多机会。日内短线交易思路以逢低 ...

Group 1 - Recent developments indicate that many US Treasury bond funds have lifted their quotas, prompting interest in these funds [1][2] - Various funds are categorized based on their duration, with specific funds targeting different maturity ranges such as "7-10 year US Treasury ETF" and "1-3 year US Treasury ETF" [1][2][3][4] Group 2 - The funds include ICBC and Changxin, which are aligned with the "7-10 year US Treasury ETF," and others like Huatai-PB and Fuguo, which align with the "3-7 year US Treasury ETF" [1][2][19] - The E Fund and Morgan Stanley funds focus on shorter durations, targeting the "1-3 year US Treasury ETF" and "1 year US Treasury ETF" respectively [3][4][19] Group 3 - The article provides a detailed breakdown of the holdings within these funds, highlighting the types of US Treasury bonds they invest in, such as long-term, short-term, and inflation-protected bonds [6][7][8] - For instance, the Morgan Stanley fund primarily holds short-term US Treasury bonds, while the E Fund has a more diversified portfolio including corporate bonds [9][10][12] Group 4 - Performance comparisons show that the E Fund's volatility aligns closely with the "1-3 year US Treasury ETF," while the Morgan Stanley fund exhibits lower volatility, indicating a more conservative approach [18][12] - Long-term funds like ICBC Global US Dollar Bond and Changxin Global Bond have significant allocations to long-term US Treasury bonds, with ICBC holding 85.91% in its top five bonds [19][20][21][24] Group 5 - The article concludes with a summary table of various funds, detailing their codes, managers, asset sizes, and expected returns, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these funds closely due to their active management nature [51][52]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policy - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority, emphasizing that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power over foreign trade [1] - The ruling indicates a potential shift in trade policy and could impact future tariff decisions and international trade relations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers acknowledged facing "difficult trade-offs" in the coming months, with concerns about rising inflation and unemployment [3] - There are warnings about increasing recession risks and the need to monitor recent volatility in the bond market, which could pose risks to financial stability [3] - Changes in the dollar's safe-haven status and rising U.S. Treasury yields may have long-term economic implications [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - International gold prices have seen a significant decline, breaking the key support level of 3280 and reaching around 3245, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The daily chart shows a four-day consecutive decline, with MACD indicators suggesting a potential shift to a bearish trend if it falls below the zero line [4] - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling on rallies around the 3282-93 range, with support targets set at 3260-3250 and further down to 3209 if broken [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy, leading to an unexpected rise in bond yields, indicating market concerns about economic governance rather than a positive response to reduced trade barriers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.5%, while the 2-year yield increased by over 1 percentage point, contrary to expectations that tariffs being halted would lower input costs and ease inflation [1][2]. - The bond market's reaction signals a warning about the chaotic governance and systemic disorder in the U.S. economy, rather than indifference to the tariff cancellation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Governance Concerns - The halting of tariffs has exposed a governance vacuum, with the judicial branch overriding executive authority, suggesting a lack of coherent economic leadership [3][4]. - The current net issuance of U.S. debt is near historical highs, and with the Federal Reserve no longer acting as a buyer, there are concerns about the market's ability to absorb this debt, exacerbated by potential declines in fiscal revenue due to tariff cancellations [3][4]. Group 3: Implications for Trade Negotiations - The court ruling weakens Trump's negotiating position, as it raises the risk of domestic judicial challenges to trade policies, potentially emboldening trade partners to delay negotiations [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that if the tariff suspension remains in effect, asset performance may shift towards a scenario of "tax cuts rising, tariffs falling," with bond yields remaining high due to increased fiscal burdens [5][6]. Group 4: Systemic Risks - The bond market's response indicates that the financial system is nearing a critical point, with rising leverage and deteriorating liquidity in Treasury futures suggesting increased vulnerability to systemic risks [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that markets react strongly to policy inconsistencies, and the current situation in the U.S. reflects a similar pattern of instability [4][5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-29 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着 6 月美债危机逐渐迫近，"灰犀牛"效应凸显或诱发宏观新一轮负面冲击。同时 OPEC+ 产油国加快增产节奏，市场普遍预期将宣布 7 月再增产 41.1 万桶/日。按照目前每个月递增 41.1 万 ...

两年期美债收益率涨0.93个基点，报3.9901%，日内交投于3.9489%-4.0024%区间，20:10刷新日低之后 持续反弹，在02:00美联储发布会议纪要之前刷新日高。 周三（5月28日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率上涨3.37个基点，报4.4773%，日内交投于 4.4358%-4.4991%区间，北京时间20:24微跌刷新日低——前后形成V形反转。 ...

一天，法外狂徒张三，发行了1个亿的张三币，声称1个张三币可以兑换1美元，可以绕过银行系统进行 各种黑白灰交易以及跨境支付而不被监管，然后让你去买。你大概会觉得他是骗子，也不会去买。心里 想的是，我要是买了张三币，以后要是换不回美元不就瞎了？ 可是，如果发行稳定币的人是马斯克，你信吗？如果发行稳定币的是巴菲特？你可能犹豫。如果发行稳 定币的是美国财政部和特朗普家族呢？你大概就会相信了。现在在美国，发行各种稳定币的，就是马斯 克、央行、总统家族这个级别的机构，是不是就更可信了？ 美国财长贝森特在一次访谈中表示，特朗普政府正全力押注加密货币领域，并正在努力为数字资产企业 提供明确的监管框架。贝森特重申了他的预测，美元稳定币将在短期内为美国国债和票据创造2 万亿美 元需求，远超目前的3000亿美元规模。 通过发行美元稳定币，让其他国家的民众可以借助虚拟币绕开本国的监管，侧面给普通民众开了一条投 资美债的通道，有利于资产的美元化。说的通俗点，你现在手上有20万元人民币，以前你先想买美债， 但国内没有渠道，现在给你提供了一个稳定币的购买渠道。 最近稳定币很火，美国参议院刚刚推进了其有史以来第一份稳定币法案《GENIUS ...

今年以来，黄金表现相当亮眼，一度触及每盎司3500美元上方的历史新高。但近几周情况生变。受通胀 预期变化、美债收益率波动以及多元化避险需求的不断变化影响，金价波动加剧，5月中旬下探至3120 美元左右的低点。尽管金价已有所回升，但其波动也提醒投资者，黄金市场始终处于变化之中，尤其是 在当下不可预测的经济环境中。 一些专家就6月金价走势做出预测。总体而言，金价在6月可能出现三种情景。 情景一：金价趋稳 专家预计，6月大部分时间里，黄金市场可能保持相对稳定。一方面，下一次美联储会议要到6月17日才 会举行，届时央行可能决定上调或下调联邦基金利率。这可能会刺激或抑制黄金需求，具体取决于央行 的政策走向。 "这将是一个值得关注的重要事件，"Monetary Metals内容主管本·纳德尔斯坦（Ben Nadelstein）表 示，"任何政策方向的变化，甚至是围绕未来降息的基调转变，都可能影响黄金市场。" 截至5月27日，芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）的FedWatch工具显示，6月利率变动的概率仅为 5.6%，因此，金价不太可能出现大幅波动。专家称，美联储会议后，拟议关税的实施可能影响金价。 "近几个月来，金 ...