点击关注【张瑜旬度纪要系列】 各位投资朋友好，本次旬度我们聚焦黄金。简单回顾过去几年我们对黄金的观点： 2023 年 12 月，我们坚定提 出十年级别战略看多黄金，至今一共发布过 4 篇深度报告，每一篇都针对市场的困惑，提出了一些新框架、新 指标、新思考。 报告1：战略看多黄金（2 0 23年12月） 2025 年 3 月，黄金触及 3000 美元 / 盎司，市场普遍认为金价基本见顶。但我们继续坚定看多， 2025 年 3 月发 布报告 《 黄金 " 狂想曲 "—— 五种极端情形下的金价推演 》 ， 通过假设五种极端情形（例如新兴市场增持黄 金、加密资产崩塌导致资金向黄金转移等）对金价弹性进行极致推演，主要是为了帮助市场打开固化思维。我 们认为市场对黄金的尾部弹性是认识不足的， 在真正的秩序重构期，黄金的上涨空间会大超预期 。我们在本 篇报告中提出的价格并不是我们认为的目标价，而是想给市场一个启发，即在真正极端的情况下（哪怕这些极 端情况只演绎了 10% ），金价都可能远远超过我们的想象。 报告4：黄金隐含秩序重构指数（2025年5月） 2025 年 3 月后金价一路上涨，接连突破 3200 、 3300 ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment remains volatile, with industrial metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, continuing to fluctuate. However, the introduction of a series of policies in the second half of 2024 is expected to improve domestic macro sentiment and potentially boost upstream industrial metal demand due to recovering terminal demand and supply constraints [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure from fluctuating macro policies, but tightening copper concentrate supply and declining smelting processing fees provide strong medium to long-term price support [1]. - The aluminum supply chain's vulnerability has been highlighted by recent disruptions in Guinea's bauxite supply, indicating that integrated layouts will become a development direction for the industry [1]. Market Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May, indicating improved market expectations and a potential recovery in terminal demand for industrial metals [1]. - The strategic metal tungsten has reached a historical price high, suggesting a potential revaluation of strategic metals in the context of countries pursuing supply chain autonomy [1]. Investment Products - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index (930708), which includes representative listed companies in the nonferrous metal industry from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering various sub-industries such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals [1]. - The CSI Nonferrous Index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the A-share market, with its constituent stocks exhibiting significant cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices [1].

关注出口韧性下的航运板块机会 20250603 中国 2025 年出口韧性的主要原因是什么？ 中国 2025 年出口韧性主要有两个原因：首先是外部因素，即抢出口行为因谈 判不确定性可能延续时间较长；其次是内部因素，即中国自身贸易对象多元化 和竞争力提升。从 2018 年至 2024 年，中国超过 56%的出口增量来自于美国、 集运市场运力增长在 2024 年达到最高峰后预计将逐步下降，但地缘政 治冲突和不稳定的大环境导致航运结构性紧张持续存在，为航运板块带 来投资机会。贸易供应链重构导致航线拉长，增加了运输需求。 集运领域，国内海控和港股海丰国际值得关注，这些公司分红可观且现 金流充裕。此外，在东南亚区域占比较高的锦江航运也有良好表现。短 期来看油轮和散货船市场较为低迷，但中长期原油供给有保障。 欧盟、东盟等传统贸易伙伴之外的经济体，而美国仅贡献了 4.2%。此外，中 国商品的竞争力指数明显提升，尤其是在技术含量较高的工业品领域，如车辆、 航空器、船舶和运输设备，以及光学医疗仪器等方面。 当前国内基本面环境对航运板块有何影响？ 摘要 中国出口展现超预期韧性，前四个月同比增长 6.4%，显著高于去年同 期的 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that both gold and Bitcoin are preferred assets in the context of financial order reconstruction and risk aversion scenarios, with Bitcoin potentially outperforming gold in certain market conditions [1][10]. Group 1: Market Context and Trends - Recent concerns regarding sovereign debt, particularly in Japan and the U.S., highlight the risks associated with national credit, while gold and Bitcoin have shown stronger performance compared to other assets since the trade war began [2]. - The historical price movements of Bitcoin and gold reveal their commonalities and differences, providing insights into their current allocation value and future trends [2]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Bitcoin - Bitcoin has experienced two distinct eras since its inception in 2009, characterized by four market cycles, with the current phase being the fourth bull market [3]. - The first era (2009-2018) was marked by limited growth, while the second era (2019-present) has seen widespread adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method [3]. Group 3: Historical Performance of Gold - Gold has undergone three bull markets and one bear market since 2009, with a general upward trend in prices [4]. - The first bull market (2009-2011) saw gold prices rise from $900 to nearly $1900 per ounce, while the second bear market (2012-2015) saw prices drop from $1895 to $1049.4 per ounce, a total decline of 44.6% [4]. Group 4: Commonalities and Differences between Bitcoin and Gold - Both Bitcoin and gold share characteristics of scarcity and serve as borderless currencies, which have driven their price trends since 2009 [5][6]. - The supply of gold is limited by annual mining output, while Bitcoin's supply is capped and undergoes halving every four years [6]. Group 5: Pricing Logic and Sensitivity - The value of both assets is sensitive to global liquidity conditions, with their relative value increasing during periods of liquidity expansion and decreasing during contractions [7]. - Bitcoin and gold serve as hedges against instability in sovereign currencies, with their decentralized nature allowing them to mitigate the effects of sovereign credit risks [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Gold - Both gold and Bitcoin are expected to perform well in scenarios of financial order reconstruction, with Bitcoin's growth potential suggesting a higher price ceiling compared to gold [10][15]. - The ongoing trade tensions and the restructuring of global financial markets may lead to an expansion in the market value of both gold and Bitcoin [14].

Core Insights - The polyester industry is expected to face significant production cuts after mid-June due to the end of the export rush and the arrival of the off-season for terminal consumption [1][10] - The recent reduction in US tariffs has led to a temporary surge in textile exports, but the sustainability of this growth is in question as demand appears to be driven by the release of backlogged orders rather than new demand [4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in shipping costs due to a shortage of capacity has created a chain reaction of rising costs amid surging orders for exports to the US [2][3] - The US-China tariff adjustments have temporarily boosted export demand, leading to a significant increase in shipping rates as companies scramble to fulfill orders [2][6] - The polyester industry is currently navigating a complex landscape of raw material costs, inventory pressures, and changing demand dynamics [1][10] Group 2: Production and Inventory Challenges - Polyester factories are under dual pressure from high production costs and declining sales, with downstream weaving rates showing a slight recovery but not sustainable in the long term [7][8] - The industry is facing a potential inventory accumulation issue as downstream demand weakens, leading to a need for production cuts to stabilize prices and improve profitability [10][11] - The anticipated production cuts are expected to be led by larger companies, and while the industry is preparing for reductions, significant cuts may take time to implement [11][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The polyester industry is likely to experience a reallocation of profits along the supply chain as production cuts are implemented, potentially leading to downward pressure on raw material prices [10][12] - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs and trade relations between the US and China will significantly influence the future trajectory of the industry [11][12] - Analysts suggest that while there is a current recovery in processing fees for polyester products, the overall market remains vulnerable to fluctuations in demand and raw material prices [9][10]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for China to innovate and restructure its international communication framework to enhance its global narrative and influence [1][2] - It highlights the importance of leveraging China's unique advantages, such as its institutional strengths and rich cultural heritage, to improve international communication effectiveness [2][3] - The article points out the challenges posed by Western media narratives and the need for China to actively shape its own image in the global arena [1][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the necessity of innovating institutional mechanisms to create a coordinated and systematic approach to international communication [3][4] - It stresses the role of digital technology in transforming communication channels and enhancing the reach and impact of China's narratives [4][5] - The article advocates for the use of cultural power to foster mutual understanding and cooperation among different civilizations, thereby enhancing China's international influence [5][6] Group 3 - The article calls for an increase in China's economic discourse power by participating in global economic governance and reforming international cooperation mechanisms [6] - It suggests that China should innovate its expression methods to effectively communicate its economic development stories and enhance international recognition [6]

Group 1 - The proportion of women as car decision-makers is rapidly increasing, with female users growing by 37% year-on-year, particularly in the context of vehicle repurchase [1] - The market is transitioning from "incremental logic" to "stock reconstruction," with first-time buyers of new energy vehicles dropping to 58.6%, while replacement users have increased to 13.3% [1] - The "post-95" generation is becoming a key driving force in the new energy vehicle market, representing 26% of the purchasing demographic [1] Group 2 - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rising, marking a shift from the "incremental era" to a "user refinement operation era" in the automotive market [2] - Concerns over range anxiety have significantly decreased, with users now focusing on the overall usability and trust in new energy vehicles rather than just technical specifications [3] - The influence of international brands is weakening, with few models from these brands appearing in the top rankings of the new energy vehicle product attractiveness index [3]

Group 1 - The recent surge in international gold prices, reaching a high of $3,400, is primarily driven by increased global trade and economic uncertainties, particularly in response to the U.S. government's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The global financial market has seen a significant shift towards safe-haven assets, as evidenced by the simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting concerns over rising U.S. debt and the stability of the dollar [1] - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive months, leading to a record high in total assets under management (AUM) [1] Group 2 - Central banks worldwide have continued to purchase gold, with a net acquisition of 17 tons in March 2025, while only a few central banks, such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Singapore, reported net sales [2] - The increase in gold prices is closely linked to the ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases, as the U.S. debt has surpassed $36 trillion, raising concerns about the monetization of U.S. debt [2] - The recent passage of a tax reduction bill by the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to exacerbate the fiscal deficit, further impacting gold prices [2] Group 3 - The current rise in gold prices signals a potential restructuring of the global monetary system, as the reliance on fiat currencies has increased since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [3] - There is a prevailing view that the U.S. government may be seeking to devalue the dollar to offset rising government debt, which could lead to unintended consequences from aggressive tariff policies [3] Group 4 - The volatility of gold prices is on the rise, as indicated by the increasing ratio of put options to call options, suggesting that the search for safe-haven assets will continue amid growing uncertainties [4]

在全球经济格局深刻调整的当下，中国私募股权市场却逆风扬帆，国际资本正在加速涌入。 作为一名有着多年投资经验的资深创投圈人士，LongRiver江远投资创始人、CEO张江对此有着深刻的 体会与观察。他和团队近几个月可谓相当忙碌，已经连续接待了多批外资机构的调研，并且来访人士都 是CEO、CFO等级别的高管。还有外资LP已经多年未到中国，但近几个月也展开了对中国市场的密集 调研。 中国资产"高质价比"特质突显，外资LP掀起中国调研热 2025年以来，中国私募股权市场迎来了一波强势回暖。从中国证券投资基金业协会的数据来看，新成立 基金的数量呈现出快速增长态势，同时各地的引导基金和母基金也变得更加活跃，纷纷加大在创投领域 的布局力度。在项目层面，热点赛道也在不断涌现，生物医药、人工智能、机器人等领域成为投资的热 门方向，吸引着大量资本的涌入。 海外投资人的态度也在发生明显转变。作为亚洲近年最大规模的首期美元基金募资案例，江远投资去年 完成近4亿美元基金募集，其LP结构以欧洲和亚洲保险资金为主，其余皆为国际一线机构。这一案例被 视为外资对中国市场长期信心的缩影。 另一方面，张江介绍，今年以来外资机构高管频繁来到中国调研 ...

本交易日将出炉美国4月工厂订单月率和美国4月JOLTs职位空缺数据，投资者需要重点关注，另外继续 关注地缘局势和国际贸易局势相关消息。 历史性转折：黄金的"三重定价重构"当前黄金市场正经历自1970年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来最深刻的 定价逻辑变革。从"抗通胀"到"防崩溃"的职能进化传统认知中黄金与CPI的强关联正在被打破。如今驱 动金价的核心因素已转变为"全球系统稳定性折价"——当俄乌战争导致能源供应链断裂、美国关税引发 制造业衰退时，黄金的避险溢价会呈几何级数放大。央行购金潮的底层逻辑世界黄金协会数据显示， 2024年各国央行黄金购买量同比增加17%，其中波兰、亚洲大国等"去美元化"阵营占比超60%。这种战 略性储备转移绝非短期行为，而是对美元霸权衰退的长期对冲。 技术面突破的自我实现效应金价本周强势突破3330美元关键阻力位后，量化交易系统的自动买盘已被触 发。若周线收盘站稳3400美元上方，下一目标将直指历史高点3500美元关口。黄金同时享受着"避险需 求激增"与"美元实际利率下行"的双重利好，这种"戴维斯双击"效应在历史上往往催生年度级别行情。 对于投资者而言，需要警惕的或许不是错过上涨，而是在地缘黑 ...