中原地产研究院统计数据显示，8月，北京二手房住宅网签13331套， 较7月增加547套。 对于二手房市场活跃度提升的原因，中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为，是北京楼市政策调整与市场供需的双重作用。 一方面，北京8月8日出台的楼市新政力度较大，主要聚焦进一步优化住房限购政策和加大公积金贷款支持力度两个方 面，为市场注入了新的活力。另一方面，市场各方积极响应，买卖双方的行为与预期都发生了显著的改变。 张大伟指出，从市场结构来看，新政有利于引导需求向五环外流动，优化市场库存结构。近年来北京五环外新房供应 集中，且未来仍为供地主力。五环外是新房市场的成交主力地区，占比超80%，二手住宅成交占比也超50%。放开五 环外购房套数限制，让有能力、有意愿、有需要的居民家庭进入市场，在促进市场修复的同时，也更好地支持了职住 平衡。对于想卖出五环外二手房改善住房的需求来说，也带来了新的机会，促进这部分改善需求释放。 张大伟认为，整体来看，8月北京楼市在政策调整的刺激下，市场活跃度有所提升，市场信心得到一定程度的修复， 未来政策仍有进一步优化的空间，如进一步降低购房门槛、简化购房手续，支持公积金 "带押过户"，加大人才公积金 政策支持 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - sentiment is generally stable, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [3][4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [5][6]. - PX prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the start - up rate increasing in Asia and the downstream PTA having a restart plan in the fourth quarter, and there is still an expectation of destocking [8][9]. - PTA's September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - Ethylene glycol's overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [13][14]. - Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [19][21]. - Propylene prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the market tending to be loose overall and strong support from the upstream raw material end [22][23]. - Plastic PP prices are expected to be volatile and weak, with new production capacity expected to be put into operation and the peak - season demand likely to be weak [24][25]. - PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with increasing supply and weakening macro - drive [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with stable supply and uncertain demand improvement [34][35]. - Methanol prices should be shorted on rallies, with increasing supply and high port inventory [36][37]. - Urea prices are expected to be volatile, with the domestic supply being loose and the demand showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender has a certain support for the market [38]. - Double - offset paper production is difficult to increase significantly, with weak demand and limited cost support [40][41]. - Log prices are in a weak balance in the short term, and the medium - and long - term market needs to pay attention to supply and demand changes [42][43]. - Pulp prices can be lightly tested for long positions in the SP11 contract [45][46]. - BR prices should hold short positions in the BR10 contract, and natural rubber should hold long positions in the RU01 contract [49][52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2510 contract settled at $65.59, up $1.58/barrel, +2.47% month - on - month; Brent2511 contract settled at $69.14, up $0.99/barrel, +1.45% month - on - month [1]. - **Related News**: Trump will ask the Supreme Court for a quick ruling on the tariff case, and he also called for a "substantial" interest rate cut by the Fed. The US manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 48.7 but was still below the boom - bust line [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - sentiment is stable, geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Brent contract operating in the range of $68.5 - $69.5/barrel [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3549 points at night (- 0.06%), and BU2512 closed at 3492 points at night (+0.00%). The spot price in Shandong rose by 30 yuan/ton, and that in South China rose by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, the increase in crude oil and futures prices boosted market sentiment, and the terminal demand was relatively stable. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the supply increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. In the South China market, the price was slightly pushed up due to improved market sentiment and demand [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and strong; for the spread, the asphalt - crude oil spread is volatile; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2830 at night (- 0.39%), and LU11 closed at 3530 at night (- 0.34%). The high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread in the Singapore paper - cargo market was $0.8/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread was $2.38/ton [5]. - **Related News**: The Dangote refinery in Nigeria exported the first batch of gasoline to North America at the end of August, and the RFCC unit resumed operation on August 22. There were no transactions in the Singapore spot window on September 2 [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weakly volatile; for the spread, pay attention to the short - term contango opportunity for low - sulfur fuel oil [8]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 6834 during the day (- 32/- 0.47%) and 6862 at night (+28/+0.41%). The PX spot price was estimated at $846/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month [8]. - **Related News**: A factory in East China postponed the restart of its PX and PTA units. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and US sanctions on some oil - producing countries pushed up oil prices. The Asian PX start - up rate continued to increase, and the downstream PTA had a restart plan in the fourth quarter, with an expectation of destocking [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile at a high level; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA601 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 4756 during the day (- 16/- 0.34%) and 4766 at night (+10/+0.21%). The PTA spot basis continued to weaken [11]. - **Related News**: Some PTA units were restarting or shutting down, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4339 (- 88/- 1.19%) during the day and 4363 (+24/+0.55%) at night. The spot basis was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [13]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 5.1 tons week - on - week, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to do basis positive spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2510 main contract closed at 6438 during the day (- 30/- 0.46%) and 6446 at night (+8/+0.12%). The price of straight - spun polyester staple in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, and a factory in Xinjiang restarted its 200,000 - ton straight - spun polyester staple unit [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [16]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: The PR2511 main contract closed at 5910 (- 40/- 0.67%) during the day and 5928 at night (+18/+0.30%). The polyester bottle - chip market transaction atmosphere was average [16][18]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was partially lowered [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract of pure benzene and styrene futures closed at 5936 during the day (- 74/- 1.23%) and 6012 at night (+76/+1.28%); the EB2510 main contract closed at 6934 during the day (- 79/- 1.13%) and 7018 at night (+84/+1.21%). The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Related News**: A new cracking ethylene unit in Shandong Yulong plans to be put into operation in mid - September [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on pure benzene and short on styrene; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL2601 main contract closed at 6405 (- 18/- 0.28%) during the day and 6425 at night (+20/+0.31%). The propylene price in Shandong rose slightly [22]. - **Related News**: The listing price of propylene of Sinopec East China Sales Company was stable [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propylene market is generally loose, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with strong support from the upstream raw material end [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of PP拉丝 in North China decreased by 30/0 yuan/ton [24]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio increased by 0.84 percentage points [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is new production capacity expected to be put into operation for plastic PP, and the peak - season demand is likely to be weak, so the price is expected to be volatile and weak [25][26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong was stable, while the price in Jiangsu increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was basically unchanged, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong Jinning was stable [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, PVC is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 01 contract closed at 1267 yuan (- 4/- 0.3%) during the day and 1280 yuan at night (13/1.0%). The SA9 - 1 spread was - 115 yuan [31]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash production equipment had changes in operation status, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply increases, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, with weakening macro - drive [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 backwardation strategy in the first half of the month; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 01 contract closed at 1134 yuan/ton (- 3/- 0.26%) during the day and 1141 yuan/ton at night (7/0.62%). The 9 - 1 spread was - 179 yuan [34]. - **Related News**: The spot price of float glass increased slightly, and the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass supply is stable, and the demand improvement is uncertain. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2393 (+15/+0.63%). The production - area and consumption - area prices were reported [36]. - **Related News**: The international methanol (excluding China) production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device start - up rate is stable, the import is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is increasing. The domestic supply is loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is recommended to short at high levels; for the spread, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1746 (+9/+0.52%). The ex - factory price was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The daily urea production increased, and India tendered for 200,000 tons of urea [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is loose, and the demand is showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, supporting prices, but downstream profits are under pressure and may struggle to keep up [3] - Inter - term: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to PDH device maintenance on the supply side and rigid downstream demand, the spot price of propylene continues to be strong, but the futures market shows a volatile trend. The 01 contract is far away, so the impact of supply - demand drivers is weak. The price of propylene is supported by the tightening of external supply in the short term and the overall downstream demand has slightly recovered, but the overall profit of downstream products is average, and the increase in propylene spot price compresses downstream profits, which restricts the upward space of propylene. The cost of crude oil is rising, and the price of imported propane has rebounded [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Information includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant data involve the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production profit and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refinery [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It includes the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of downstream products such as PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory is provided [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated higher overnight. The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. LME copper inventory decreased by 100 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2932 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 699 tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" is a traditional consumption peak season in China, and refined copper consumption is expected to be boosted. However, the US recession expectation and high copper prices may limit the upside of prices [1]. - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a strong - fluctuating trend overnight. Alumina should be shorted on rallies, but chasing short positions is not recommended. Downstream sectors are stocking up quickly before the peak season, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations during the peak season. The aluminum industry profit continues to shift from upstream to downstream [1][2]. - LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined overnight. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory pressure may emerge, while the cost support is strengthening. Ternary demand in the new energy sector is gradually strengthening, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. First - grade nickel is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose. The US manufacturing index was in contraction, with new orders expanding for the first time this year. LME, Comex, and SHFE inventories changed. The "Golden September and Silver October" may boost refined copper consumption, but the US recession and high prices may limit the upside [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina复产 increased, and the surplus expectation was strengthened. Downstream stocking is fast, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations. The industry profit is shifting downstream [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and Shanghai nickel declined. Inventory increased, and nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory pressure may appear, and new energy demand is strengthening [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 245 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2374 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 699 tons. The active contract import profit increased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged. LME inventory decreased by 1525 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 982 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased. The inventory of LME decreased by 1450 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 991 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 275 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 390 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 504 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 275 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 2538 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.2%. LME inventory increased by 20 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 75 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 28963 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: There are charts showing the spot premium of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: There are charts showing the spread between the first and second contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][21]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who are all experienced in non - ferrous metal research and have relevant qualifications and achievements [50][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the second-hand housing market in major Chinese cities, particularly Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, highlighting the impact of policy changes and market dynamics on transaction volumes and market sentiment [2][3][4][6][8]. Group 1: Beijing Market Insights - In August, Beijing's second-hand residential transactions reached 13,331 units, an increase of 547 units from July, driven by new policies aimed at optimizing housing purchase restrictions and enhancing public housing loan support [3][4]. - The new policies are expected to facilitate demand flow to areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, which has seen significant new housing supply, thus improving market inventory structure [3][4]. - Analysts predict further policy optimizations in Beijing, such as lowering purchase thresholds and simplifying procedures, which could accelerate the circulation of second-hand housing [4][5]. Group 2: Shenzhen Market Trends - Shenzhen recorded 5,267 second-hand housing transactions in August, a 7.1% decrease month-on-month but a 12.8% increase year-on-year, maintaining above the industry "boom-bust line" for six consecutive months [6][7]. - Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period are high, with predictions of policy relaxations and increased promotional activities from developers, which could boost market activity [7]. - The market is anticipated to benefit from seasonal demand factors, including the upcoming National Day holiday and rising consumer confidence due to positive stock market performance [7]. Group 3: Guangzhou Market Conditions - Guangzhou's second-hand housing transactions fell to 8,700 units in August, a decrease of 2.92% from the previous month, attributed to seasonal factors and a slowdown in market activity [8][11]. - The implementation of new policies, such as converting commercial loans to public housing loans and the "online signing equals enrollment" initiative, aims to stimulate demand but may have limited immediate impact [9][11]. - Market sentiment remains cautious, with a prolonged decision-making cycle among buyers due to a large inventory of second-hand homes and prevailing market conditions [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - side disturbances are the main cause of the recent market. Although the lithium carbonate futures have dropped significantly and the spot price has continued to decline during the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional demand peak season, the downstream purchasing willingness remains strong. With the current futures price back to the level before the shutdown of Jiaxiaowo Mine, the expanding basis, the strengthening of the ore - end price support, and the entry into the demand peak season, it is expected that the further decline space of lithium prices is limited [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the market shifted to a back structure, mainly due to unconfirmed rumors of the resumption of a mine in Yichun, Jiangxi. The spot price of electric carbon decreased by 850 to 77,500. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the spot price continued to fall, but downstream purchasing willingness was strong, and the inventory cycle slightly extended [11]. - The price of Australian ore dropped by 20 to 860, and the price of lithium mica ore dropped by 30 to 1,920. The loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica expanded to 5,811, and the profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 50. The production of salt plants was affected under the price support of the ore end [11]. 3.2行业要闻 - Tianqi Lithium's 2025 semi - annual report shows that its lithium concentrate has a built - in production capacity of 1.62 million tons/year and a medium - term planned capacity of about 2.14 million tons/year. The built - in production capacity of lithium chemical products is about 91,600 tons/year, and the planned capacity is about 122,600 tons/year. The company is promoting expansion projects. The third chemical - grade lithium concentrate plant at the Greenbushes Lithium Spodumene Mine in Australia is expected to be completed in December this year. The 30,000 - ton/year lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu (which can flexibly adjust to produce lithium carbonate products) has been completed and entered the commissioning stage. A 1,000 - ton/year metal lithium and supporting raw material expansion project is under construction in Tongliang, Chongqing [12]. - Ganfeng Lithium stated on September 2 that its solid - state batteries have been trial - installed and mass - produced in some vehicle models and are used in products of well - known drone and eVTOL enterprises. The high - safety and low - temperature - resistant solid - state lithium batteries have been sent to an international well - known mobile phone company for batch verification. The company is promoting high - specific - energy solid - state batteries in new - energy vehicles, consumer electronics, energy storage and other fields, accelerating industrialization in consumer - grade scenarios such as drones, exoskeletons, and portable energy storage, and building a penetration path for professional equipment, high - end consumer electronics, and mass consumer goods [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: The stock index is recommended to be moderately long at low levels in the medium and long term, and government bonds are recommended to be on the sidelines [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading, and glass is recommended to be long at low levels [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is recommended to be moderately long at low levels, aluminum is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback, nickel is recommended to be on the sidelines or short at high levels, tin is recommended for range trading, and gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][16][18] - Energy and chemicals: PVC and styrene are expected to be weakly volatile, caustic soda and rubber are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage, urea and methanol are expected to be volatile, and polyolefins are expected to be widely volatile [1][20][21][24][26][27][28][32] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, and jujube are expected to be volatile, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile [1][33][34][35][36] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short at high levels, corn is expected to be widely volatile, soybean meal is expected to have limited upside, and oils are expected to be adjusted at high levels [1][37][39][40][43][46] Core Views - The A - share market has short - term fluctuations but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long during corrections. The bond market lacks short - term positive drivers and is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] - The coal market price is in a stalemate, and the rebar price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. The glass market may have a phased recovery in demand and is recommended to be long at low levels [7][9] - The copper price is expected to be strong in the later stage due to the shift from the off - season to the peak season. The aluminum market is recommended to be long at low levels considering the peak season demand. The nickel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term, and the tin market is recommended for range trading [10][11][16] - The PVC market is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. The caustic soda market is expected to have low - long opportunities during the peak season. The styrene market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile [20][23][24][26] - The urea price is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term. The methanol market has a supply - demand balance with increased demand from methanol - to - olefins. The polyolefin market is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [27][28][30] - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face downward pressure in the future. The PTA market is expected to be volatile and is currently in a de - stocking stage. The apple market is expected to be strongly volatile, and the jujube market is expected to be stable [33][34][35][36] - The pig market has limited upside due to large supply, and the egg market is recommended to be short at high levels. The corn market is expected to be range - bound, the soybean meal price has limited upside, and the oil market is expected to be adjusted at high levels [37][39][40][41][43][46] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Index: On Tuesday, the A - share market was volatile and adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical correction in the short term, but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long during corrections [5] - Government Bonds: The bond market continued to be volatile on Tuesday. In the short term, there is a lack of positive drivers, and the downward space for interest rates is limited. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market price is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is weak, and the number of coal mines on training leave has increased, intensifying market caution [7] - Rebar: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was narrowly volatile. The fundamentals show an increase in demand, production, and inventory. The static valuation is neutral to low. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended [7] - Glass: The supply is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly in some regions. The demand has improved at the end of the month. Considering the peak season and macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be long at low levels [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level range. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and it is recommended to be moderately long at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is warming up in the peak season. It is recommended to be long at low levels [11] - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of over - supply in the medium and long term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand from the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading [16] - Gold and Silver: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and the prices of precious metals are expected to have support below. It is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support is uncertain, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [20] - Caustic Soda: Affected by rumors and warehouse receipts, the price has fallen. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and there are low - long opportunities [23] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile [24] - Rubber: The cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [26] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [27] - Methanol: The supply is increasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be volatile [28] - Polyolefins: The traditional peak season is coming, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the supply pressure is relieved for polyethylene. It is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [30] - Soda Ash: The spot market is sluggish, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is improving. It is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase, and the price may face downward pressure. Hedging is recommended [33] - PTA: The device is under maintenance, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is in a de - stocking stage and is expected to be volatile [34] - Apple: The price of early - maturing apples is polarized, and the inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile [35] - Jujube: The Xinjiang jujube is in the sugar - increasing stage, and the price is expected to be stable [36] Agricultural and Livestock Products - Pigs: The short - term price has a limited upside due to large supply, and the medium - and long - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high levels and consider arbitrage [37][39] - Eggs: The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to be short at high levels for near - term contracts and wait and see for far - term contracts [39][40] - Corn: The supply is sufficient during the transition period between old and new crops, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended for range trading and arbitrage [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level [44][45] - Oils: The short - term price is under pressure from multiple negative factors, but there is also support. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction and then go long [46][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, the A-share market and multiple futures varieties showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy restrictions, and international market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][11][12] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 2, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2875 billion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also adjusted downward, closing at 4490.45, a decrease of 33.26 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On September 2, the weighted coke index showed weak consolidation, closing at 1599.6, a decrease of 6.9. There is a temporary supply contraction due to upcoming northern regional restrictions, while steel mills also face restrictions, and cost support is weakening [2][4] - Coking Coal: On September 2, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 9.2. Some mines in major coal - producing areas have suspended production, and downstream enterprises will face restrictions, resulting in weak supply and demand [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction in spot prices and short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on September 2 and continued to fall slightly at night. India will allow unrestricted use of sugarcane juice, syrup, and molasses for ethanol production in the new season [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range fluctuation on September 2 and closed slightly higher. Boosted by rising crude oil prices, it rose slightly at night. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.6% [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 2, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.782 billion tons, a 5.6% increase year - on - year. Domestically, on September 2, soybean meal futures fluctuated. The M2601 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease. High imports and high processing volumes have led to sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5] Live Hogs - On September 2, live hog futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2511 contract closed at 13595 yuan/ton, a 0.22% decrease. In September, supply is sufficient, and some areas face disease risks. Although there is a recovery in terminal demand due to the start of the school season, the support for prices is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is high [7] Palm Oil - On September 2, palm oil futures continued a slight rebound but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2601 closed at 9422, a 0.4% increase. Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 30.53% year - on - year, while production decreased by 2.65% [8] Shanghai Copper - Positive macro factors and supply - tightening expectations will support copper prices. With low inventory and high premiums in China, and the approaching peak consumption season, demand is expected to increase. However, high prices may suppress some purchasing intentions [8] Cotton - On the night of September 2, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 189 lots [9] Iron Ore - On September 2, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%. Global shipments have reached a high for the year, and arrivals have increased. Short - term prices are in a fluctuating trend due to production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] Asphalt - On September 2, the main contract of asphalt 2510 fluctuated and rose 1.17%, closing at 3551 yuan. The capacity utilization rate has decreased, inventory reduction is slow, and with the approaching peak demand season, prices are expected to fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 2, the log futures contract 2511 opened at 820, closed at 810.5, and increased in positions by 755 lots. The price broke below the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to factors such as peak - season prices, imports, and inventory [9][10][11] Steel Products - On September 2, rb2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3298 yuan/ton. The market lacks strong macro - drivers, and the fundamentals are weak, which may continue to suppress prices [11] Alumina - On September 2, ao2601 closed at 3022 yuan/ton. Some domestic enterprises are under maintenance, and production and operating rates have slightly declined, but the supply is still relatively loose, and the market may continue to be weak [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 2, al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is favorable, but the peak - season expectations have not been realized. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is in a range - bound trend [12]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘回落，20均线有支撑。产业链上，矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺。 不锈钢库存小幅回落，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三 元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货124050，基差1520，偏多 3、库存：LME库存210234，+390，上交所仓单21956，+183，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价格稳定，海运费坚挺，镍 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector in A-shares continues to strengthen, with the industry index closing at 6413.26 points, a weekly increase of 7.16%, and a year-to-date increase of 48.52%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [1][6][7] - Sub-industries such as industrial metals, precious metals, and minor metals all recorded positive weekly growth, with the minor metals index rising by 12.02% [1][6] - Key companies with notable weekly gains include Jinli Permanent Magnet (+35.31%), China Rare Earth (+22.83%), and Zhangyuan Tungsten (+22.12%) [1][13] Group 2: Price Trends - Copper prices increased by 0.89% to 79,410 yuan/ton, driven by tight global copper supply and domestic shortages of anode plates and scrap copper [1][19] - The prices of lithium battery materials have generally declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 77,500 yuan/ton, down 3.13% [2][57] - Precious metals continued their upward trend, with gold and silver prices at 785.12 yuan/gram and 9,386 yuan/kilogram, reflecting weekly increases of 1.22% and 1.80% respectively [2][45] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rare earth sector faces tightening supply due to the implementation of total control policies on mining and separation, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide priced at 597,500 yuan/ton [2][57] - The demand for lithium and rare earth materials is supported by emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power, with leading companies maintaining high operating rates [2][57] - The copper supply gap is expected to widen as smelter operating rates may drop to 59.9% starting in September, further tightening supply [3][19] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Key companies in the copper industry chain to focus on include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [1] - The performance of companies in the rare earth sector, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet and Northern Rare Earth, is expected to benefit from strong demand and high operating rates [2][57] - The overall investment sentiment in the non-ferrous metal sector remains positive, with expectations of continued price increases in the context of seasonal demand recovery [1][3]