Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's FY2026 Q2 performance shows a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% increase, but a Non-GAAP net profit of 10.4 billion yuan, a 72% decrease, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1] E-commerce - Alibaba's China e-commerce group achieved revenue of 132.6 billion yuan, a 16% increase, with customer management revenue at 78.9 billion yuan, a 10% increase, reflecting a steady improvement in monetization rates [1] - Adjusted EBITA for the e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, a 76% year-on-year decline, primarily due to investments in new instant retail businesses, but excluding these impacts, the core e-commerce EBITA showed single-digit growth [1] Instant Retail - The order structure for instant retail improved, with the loss per order (UE) halving since the peak in July and August, driven by a higher proportion of high-value orders and reduced logistics costs [2] - Non-food categories also saw rapid growth, with orders from Hema and other platforms increasing by 30% month-on-month [2] - The company plans to enhance user experience and focus on high-value customer management, indicating a commitment to long-term investment in instant retail [2] Cloud and AI - The cloud intelligence group reported revenue growth of 28%, exceeding expectations, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth [3] - Adjusted EBITA was 3.6 billion yuan, a 35% increase, with an EBITA margin of 9%, indicating strong profitability in the cloud segment [3] - The company anticipates further capital expenditure beyond the previously set target of 380 billion yuan over three years, driven by robust customer demand [3] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong outlook for its e-commerce core competitiveness, growth potential in instant retail, and long-term growth in cloud and AI businesses, projecting Non-GAAP net profits of 106.9 billion, 166.6 billion, and 201.8 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 [3] - A target price of 185 HKD per share is set, with a "strong buy" rating maintained [3]

Core Insights - Alibaba reported total revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for FY2026 Q2, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was approximately 10.5 billion yuan, a significant decline of 71% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - **China E-commerce**: Revenue reached 132.6 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA was about 10.5 billion yuan, down 76% [1] - **International Commerce**: Revenue was 34.8 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year; adjusted EBITA turned positive at approximately 200 million yuan [1] - **Alibaba Cloud**: Revenue grew to 39.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34%; adjusted EBITA was about 3.6 billion yuan, up 35% [1] - **Other Businesses**: Revenue totaled 63 billion yuan, down 25% year-on-year; adjusted EBITA was -3.4 billion yuan, with losses widening by 84% [1] Operational Highlights - Instant retail business showed significant growth, leading to a rapid increase in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app; management reported a 50% reduction in losses for Taobao Flash Purchase compared to July-August [2] - AI and cloud services are gaining traction in both B2B and B2C sectors; Alibaba Cloud's market share in China's AI cloud market reached 35.8% in H1 2025 [2] - The Qwen3 model underpins the newly launched Qianwen app, which has seen over 10 million downloads in its first week of public testing [2] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditure exceeded 31.5 billion yuan this quarter; management indicated a potential increase in the three-year capex target of 380 billion yuan due to high demand for server orders [3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, projecting revenues of 1,053.7 billion yuan, 1,143.6 billion yuan, and 1,269.8 billion yuan for fiscal years 2026-2028, with non-GAAP net profits of 97.4 billion yuan, 133.2 billion yuan, and 170.7 billion yuan respectively [3]

11月21日，中国本土仓储式会员制零售品牌fudi与京东达成战略合作，正式入驻京东秒送平台。此次合作是fudi首次向第三方即时零售平台开放其核心商品 与会员体系，通过"会员级品质"与"分钟级送达"的深度融合，旨在为消费者打造"30分钟新鲜生活圈"。 （左1：京东即时零售运营负责人肖杰；右1：北京尧地农业科技发展有限公司董事长王兴水） 此次战略合作为fudi带来全方位的价值提升。fudi通过向京东开放会员体系，实现了双方资源的深度融合。基于京东的大数据分析能力，fudi得以更精准地洞 察消费趋势，从而高效触达潜力会员。此举将助力fudi在现有超200万注册会员及20万付费会员的基础上，实现高品质会员规模的显著增长，并通过数据打 通推动会员服务的个性化升级。 预计自11月26日起，用户可在京东App首页搜索"fudi"，直接访问其京东秒送店铺，享受门店周边5至7千米"新鲜商品分钟级送达"的购物体验。 多维赋能，依托京东实现fudi会员价值跃迁 创新实践，重塑即时零售服务新范式 以北京市场的成功实践为起点，fudi将通过京东覆盖全国的物流网络与数字化能力，快速推进全国化布局。fudi计划进一步扩充线上商品种类，并依 ...

Core Insights - The report reveals the troubling reality of the food delivery industry, highlighting that while order volumes have increased, actual revenue for merchants has decreased due to aggressive subsidy wars [1][3][10] - The competition among major players in the food delivery market has led to a significant decline in profits for many restaurants, as they struggle to balance between participating in subsidies and maintaining profitability [4][10] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - A study covering over 40,000 merchants indicates that during the peak of subsidy wars, daily order volumes increased by an average of 7%, but actual revenue dropped by approximately 4%, leading to an average profit decline of 8.9% [1][3] - The phenomenon of "substitution effect" is evident, where food delivery is replacing dine-in services, resulting in a decline of over 10% in both order volumes and actual revenue for dine-in services [4][10] - Merchants not participating in subsidies are also affected, as customers shift towards competitors offering subsidies, creating a dilemma for them [4][10] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The food delivery war began in February 2025 when JD.com announced its entry into the market with a "0 commission" policy, leading to a series of aggressive subsidy initiatives from major players like Meituan and Alibaba [5][6] - By July 2025, Meituan reported a daily order volume exceeding 1.2 billion, while Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase reached 80 million orders, showcasing the scale of competition and the financial stakes involved [5][6] - Despite the intense competition, regulatory scrutiny has increased, with the market regulator intervening to address the ongoing subsidy wars [6][10] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The competition is not merely about food delivery but reflects a broader strategy among giants to capture higher-frequency consumer engagement and enhance user activity on their platforms [7][8] - JD.com aims to leverage its supply chain capabilities to support the entire food service industry, while Alibaba focuses on creating synergistic effects within its ecosystem to enhance user experience [13][10] - Meituan is committed to maintaining its delivery network and has initiated plans to support merchants financially, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable business model [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing battle suggests a shift from zero-sum competition to a more complex ecosystem where companies must innovate beyond subsidies to create sustainable value [12][14] - The industry's future will depend on the ability of these companies to build healthier, more equitable ecosystems that balance efficiency with fairness and short-term gains with long-term value [12][14]

需要。今年7月起，多个即时零售平台在广东、北京、山东、河南等地，以地方分公司与主要经销商进 行对接洽谈。其中广东方面，南都湾财社记者从广东省酒类行业协会了解到，有平台已经通过协会联系 头部大商进行洽谈，并称已初步达成协议；另外在北京，一家头部酒水流通企业向南都湾财社记者确 认，该公司已经与即时零售平台达成合作协议，并开始小范围"试水"。据了解，虽然即时零售平台与酒 企有直接合作，但是酒水配额的"大头"依然在经销商手中。因此，即时零售平台有"多少货可卖"，最终 还是要依托经销商：一方面，平台自营门店有相应的采购需求；另一方面，经销商的仓库、门店等可为 即时零售提供"前置仓"服务——这是即时零售平台提高覆盖面的必要设施。南都湾财社记者注意到，在 即时零售与经销商的合作中，此前"跌跌不休"的产品零售价出现了缓和趋势，例如上述提到的白酒"降 不动价"，除了有即时零售补贴减少外，还与经销商、酒企的博弈有关。例如今年"双11"大促期间，茅 台、贵州习酒、五粮液等多个酒企发布"消费警示"，直接或间接对线上平台"补贴引流""低价卖酒"等行 为表达不满，这一定程度上遏制了线上平台酒水跌破价。除酒企外，酒商对即时零售平台的产品定 ...

Core Insights - The traditional supermarket industry is facing significant challenges, with major players like RT-Mart, Walmart, and Yonghui closing hundreds of stores, totaling 3,037 closures, averaging 8 stores per day [1][3][25] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards online grocery shopping, with services like Meituan and JD Daojia becoming increasingly popular, leading to a decline in foot traffic at physical stores [5][10][25] - Supermarkets are adapting by transforming stores into fulfillment centers for online orders, but this has resulted in a less appealing shopping experience for customers [7][10][25] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly reluctant to visit supermarkets due to the inconvenience of travel and long wait times, preferring the convenience of online shopping [3][5] - The perception of supermarkets as a reliable source for fresh produce has diminished, with many consumers now finding online delivery options more appealing [5][10] - Traditional shopping habits are changing, with consumers now focused on efficiency and direct access to desired products rather than browsing [12][15] Supermarket Operations - Supermarkets are reconfiguring their layouts and operations to accommodate online orders, with a significant portion of inventory now designated for online fulfillment [7][10] - The traditional supermarket model, which relied on strategic product placement to encourage impulse buying, is becoming less effective as consumers are more goal-oriented in their shopping [12][15] - Price strategies that once attracted customers are losing effectiveness due to increased price transparency through online comparisons [15][19] Competitive Landscape - New retail formats like Sam's Club and Hema are successfully attracting customers with unique offerings and experiences, such as fresh food and live seafood, contrasting with traditional supermarkets [19][20][25] - Yonghui is attempting to adapt by increasing its online order share and introducing smaller, more focused store formats, but faces challenges in supply chain and digital transformation [23][25] - The retail industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with the survival of traditional supermarkets dependent on their ability to innovate and adapt to changing consumer demands [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of supply chains in the e-commerce sector, particularly focusing on the rise of instant retail and the establishment of "brand official flagship lightning warehouses" by Meituan, which allows brands to quickly enter the instant retail market with minimal investment [2][3][8]. Group 1: Instant Retail Trends - Brandization is becoming a core trend in the instant retail sector, with many brands establishing official flagship stores on platforms like Meituan's flash purchase service [2]. - Since October, hundreds of brands, including Sony PlayStation and L'Oreal, have entered Meituan's instant retail channel, indicating a shift towards closer consumer engagement [3][6]. Group 2: Sales Performance - During this year's Double 11 shopping festival, brands that joined Meituan's "brand official flagship lightning warehouse" saw sales increase by nearly 400% compared to before the event, with some brands experiencing over tenfold growth [6][11]. - Over 800 brands, including Apple and Huawei, reported sales growth exceeding 100% year-on-year during the same period, highlighting the effectiveness of instant retail channels [6][11]. Group 3: Supply Chain Innovation - Meituan's lightning warehouse model has evolved to support brands in quickly entering the instant retail market without the need for self-built storage facilities, thus reducing entry costs [8][19]. - The "brand official flagship lightning warehouse" model allows brands to maintain their independent identity while benefiting from shared logistics and digital systems provided by Meituan [8][19]. Group 4: Market Potential - The instant retail market is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating significant growth potential as traditional e-commerce channels face stagnation [11][12]. - Instant retail offers high repurchase rates and low return rates, making it an attractive channel for brands seeking growth [12][14]. Group 5: Quality Assurance - Meituan has implemented policies to ensure product quality, including a comprehensive service guarantee plan that covers authenticity and return services for high-value items [19]. - The shift from merely providing products to ensuring quality reflects the evolving consumer expectations in the instant retail space [18][19].

Core Insights - The fifth China New Wave Brand Conference, hosted by Chengdu New Wave Media Group, focuses on "AI and the Survival and Growth of Brands in the Instant Retail Era" [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The consumer goods industry is experiencing innovation driven by digital transformation, new demographics, and new scenarios, leading to the rise of health-oriented and personalized products [1] - Instant retail in China has reached a scale of over 1 trillion, with the potential to capture 20%-25% of the retail market in the future [2] - The shift from "human decision-making" to "AI agent decision-making" is transforming customer acquisition strategies, with blockchain technology reducing traffic costs to nearly zero [2] Group 2: Company Developments - New Wave Media's founder, Zhang Jixue, highlighted the ongoing merger discussions with Focus Media, emphasizing the need for regulatory approval and the company's commitment to independent operations until the merger is finalized [2] - New Wave Media has established a community media network with 700,000 smart elevator screens across over 200 cities, positioning itself as a leader in community media [2] - The company has launched digital product upgrades, focusing on community marketing strategies and a comprehensive digital advertising system that includes user insights, strategy optimization, and performance attribution [3]

Core Insights - Alibaba's Q3 2025 revenue reached approximately 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, driven primarily by cloud services and instant retail [1] - The company reported a significant increase in sales expenses, with a year-on-year rise of approximately 34 billion yuan, indicating a high investment in the Taobao flash purchase segment [1] - Capital expenditures remained high at 31.5 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and cloud infrastructure [1][6] Revenue Growth Drivers - Cloud services contributed 10.2 billion yuan to revenue growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34% [1] - Instant retail, including flash purchases, added 8.6 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth rate of 60% [1] - Domestic e-commerce contributed 8.5 billion yuan, with a more modest growth rate of 9% [1] Financial Performance - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was approximately 5.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.9 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Chinese e-commerce group fell by about 33.8 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the impact of high sales expenses and competitive pressures [1][3] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its capital allocation towards core businesses such as AI and instant retail, leading to a significant reduction in share buyback activities [2] - Management indicated that the high investment phase for the flash purchase business is expected to taper off in the next quarter as efficiency improves [4] AI and Cloud Investments - Alibaba's cloud revenue reached 39.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 34%, indicating strong demand for AI-related products [6] - AI-related products have seen triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters, accounting for about 20% of external revenue [6] - The company plans to continue significant capital expenditures in AI, with a total of 380 billion yuan earmarked for the next three years [6][7] Valuation and Market Position - The shift towards AI and cloud services is seen as a strategic move to enhance Alibaba's valuation, similar to Amazon's transformation through AWS [7] - The current cash flow situation indicates that while Alibaba has sufficient funds for continued investment, a more prudent approach is being adopted to ensure financial stability [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][6]. Core Views - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2026Q2 reached 247.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5%. However, the non-GAAP net profit decreased by 71% to approximately 10.5 billion CNY [1]. - The report highlights the improvement in the user experience (UE) of the instant retail business, which has led to a significant increase in active consumers on the Taobao app and a reduction in losses [2]. - The management anticipates that the current quarter represents a low point for EBITA, with expectations for gradual recovery as investments in instant retail are adjusted and UE improves [2]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth of Alibaba Cloud, with a revenue increase of 34% year-on-year, and the continuous triple-digit growth in AI-related product revenue [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY2026, the projected revenue is 1,053.7 billion CNY, with a non-GAAP net profit of 97.4 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38% [5][13]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 6% for FY2026 and 9% for FY2027, with a long-term outlook of 11% growth by FY2028 [5][13]. - The adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is expected to be 106.7 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 10% [13]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected EPS of 5.1 CNY for FY2026, increasing to 8.9 CNY by FY2028 [5][13].