Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for the price [2] Aluminum - On the macro - level, the weaker - than - expected US ADP data has raised hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier than the market expected, and the market is waiting for the upcoming non - farm payrolls report [1] - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina enterprise in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a 9.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 1.5% decrease year - on - year [2] - As of July 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 474,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. In July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, the arrival of goods may continue. Coupled with the weak downstream consumption and slow pick - up, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase steadily in the early July [2] - Currently, the domestic bauxite price has not been significantly adjusted, and the long - term contract price of imported bauxite in the third quarter is expected to be mainly stable and declining. The spot trading of imported bauxite is light, and the price is stable [2] - The current off - season inventory accumulation has just begun, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The macro - risk pricing has increased, and attention should be paid to the domestic policy promotion. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be mainly strong within the range, and then the inventory - consumption trend should be concerned [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The prices of finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and the prices of aluminum ingots are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2][3][4] - For finished products, it is necessary to focus on macro - policies and downstream demand; for aluminum ingots, it is necessary to focus on macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January, resuming around the 11th - 16th of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, others plan to stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, down 40.3% month - on - month and up 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished product prices continued to decline, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity moved down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, and the House of Representatives will debate and vote on it on July 2. The market is watching US employment data to judge the Fed's policy direction [2] - As of June 30, the theoretical profit of the alumina industry was 248 yuan/ton, but the capacity using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan was in a loss state, and cost support is expected to gradually emerge. Alumina enterprise inventory increased by 81,000 tons [3] - In June, the aluminum processing PMI was 40.1%, below the boom - bust line, down 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year [3] - As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 468,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to increased supply in late June and high prices suppressing consumption, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in early July [3] - Overseas macro instability persists. Low inventory supports aluminum prices, but there are signs of inventory accumulation. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in ore prices, and the off - season demand limits the upside space [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间震荡，关注宏观情绪、下游开工、宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况和消费释放情况 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行创近期新低，今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2.铝锭 -海外市场担心美国政府赤字及贸易协议不确定性，国内利好政策促进消费 [3] -截至6月30日，氧化铝行业理论利润248元/吨，山西、河南部分产能理论已亏损，成本支撑将体现 [4] -6月铝加工行业PMI综合指数40.1%，跌至荣枯线以下，环比降9.7个百分点，同比降1.5% [4] -上周铝线缆龙头企业开工下降，国网订单匹配慢，采购节奏放缓 [4] -6月30日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存46.8万吨，较上周四增0.5万吨，环比上周一增0.4万吨 [4] -7月上旬国内铝锭库存预计稳中小增，关注到货和累库持续性 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，低库存支撑铝价但库存走势反复，几内亚雨季影响矿石价格，需求端淡季限制上行空间 [5]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：预计库存拐点临近 铝价区间运行 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上涨铝价先抑后扬。美国财政部长贝森特周五早些时候表示，特 朗普政府与其他国家达成的各项贸易协议可能会在 9 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Low inventory and high aluminum - water ratio provide support, but the off - season demand restricts the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend, macro - sentiment, and downstream start - up [4]. Summary According to Related Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and the shutdown is expected to affect a total production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward, and winter storage was lackluster this year, providing limited price support [3]. Aluminum - On June 20, the weekly arrival volume of domestic port bauxite was 4.2009 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly departure volume of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 3.0638 million tons, a decrease of 1.0108 million tons from the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is expected to gradually emerge in late June [3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it may affect the import of alumina and bauxite from the Middle East. However, few of China's imported bauxite passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and China's alumina exports to the Middle East are small, accounting for 13% of the total exports from January to May 2025 [3]. - In June, the overall off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry was strong, with the weekly start - up rate dropping 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% from the previous week. On June 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous Monday. The de - stocking rate weakened, but the low inventory still supported the market, while the spot premium gradually declined. The proportion of aluminum water remained high, and the market ingot production was still tight [3]. - Overseas macro - instability persists. Low inventory and the expectation of a high aluminum - water ratio support the aluminum price, but the inventory trend has been volatile. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on ore prices is gradually emerging, and the off - season demand pressure limits the upside space [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory providing strong support and attention to macro - guidance [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The weakening US economic data and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East made the market nervous. The May retail sales in the US were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was still supported by strong salary growth. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the target range of the overnight interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [1] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated. The cost of alumina did not change significantly, but due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down and reduced alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina [2] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing industry was in a strong off - season atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, and the operating rates of different sectors were divided [2] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. In mid - June, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingots slowed down significantly. Affected by the regional transfer driven by the price difference between regions, the weekend arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in Central China increased significantly, while the inventory in Foshan, South China decreased significantly, and the inventory in other domestic regions remained stable [2] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for the aluminum price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - The finished products are expected to fluctuate and sort out, with the price center of gravity moving downward and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some individual mills after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, with weak price support [3] Aluminum - In May, due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the supply was tight, the price rose, and the theoretical profit expanded to 409 yuan/ton by the end of May. In June, the bauxite price fluctuated, the alumina cost did not change much, the production capacity that had been cut due to maintenance was partially restored, and the new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity [3] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing was in a strong off - season atmosphere, with the weekly starting rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises dropping by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas on June 16 was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. The inventory decline slowed down in mid - June, with increased arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi, and Gongyi and a significant decline in Foshan [3] - The overall low casting volume in the short term supports the inventory to maintain a downward trend, but the increase in northwest shipments and regional transfers due to price differences have put pressure on East China and the Central Plains, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated [3][4] - Overseas macro instability persists, and the price faces pressure in the off - season. The inventory decline supports the price. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to undergo short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui have or will shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. - **Future Focus**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]. Aluminum - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and US officials are accelerating trade negotiations. The dollar is under pressure due to tariff threats [2]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment is easing, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term. Imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase. In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY [3]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The PMI composite index in May was 49.8%, in the contraction range. The industry is in a slack season, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders [3]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: On May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 511,000 tons, showing a decline [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a range, and attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons and macro - policy changes [4]. - **Future Focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4].

Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1% [1][4] - Chemical production shows marginal recovery, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.1, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points respectively [1][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to -2.6% [1][17] Construction Industry - Construction activity has weakened, with significant declines in grinding and cement shipment rates, down 1.1 percentage points to -4.6% and 1 percentage point to -8% respectively [1][29] - The asphalt operating rate has notably decreased by 8.8 percentage points to -2% [1][41] - Cement average prices continue to decline [1][29] Downstream Demand - New housing transactions show marginal improvement, with average daily transaction area increasing by 14.2% year-on-year to 0.9%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][53] - Automotive sales remain strong, with retail and wholesale volumes increasing by 15.4% to 28.5% and 21.4% to 22.1% respectively [2][80] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has improved, while container shipping prices show mixed performance [2][89] Price Trends - Prices of agricultural and industrial products have generally declined, with pork, vegetables, fruits, and eggs decreasing by 0.2%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.3% respectively [2][99] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 1%, with energy and chemical prices down by 1.3% and metal prices down by 0.6% [2][111]