Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to have an oscillating and sorting operation. The price center of building materials has been moving downward. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is rather sluggish, with weak support for prices [4]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation. The inventory in the East China region has been decreasing, and holders generally have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying has weakened. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or will shutdown, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. The view is an oscillating and sorting operation [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Aluminum Ingots - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the aluminum price moved within a range. In the East China region, due to the decreasing inventory, holders have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying is weakening, and the market transaction is becoming lighter. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend, and the spot premium is under pressure [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: On May 26, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season [4]. - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises in China decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% last week, with different trends in each sector [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in macro - expectations, development of geopolitical crises, resumption of production at the mine end, and consumption release [5].

Group 1 - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament show improvement, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8% respectively [2][17] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2 - Construction industry shows mixed performance; national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates are significantly lower than last year, with year-on-year changes of 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and -0.6 percentage points to -6.9% respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3 - The real estate market continues to decline, with average daily transaction area for new homes dropping by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% respectively [2][63] Group 4 - Agricultural product prices show divergence; vegetable and egg prices have decreased by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - Industrial product prices have rebounded, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 2% [3][117]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：成本端受消息面提振 铝价暂偏强震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 22 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011 ...

摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产平稳运行，基建开工有所好转，集运价格走势分化。 【工业生产】工业生产平稳运行 。本周，高炉开工保持韧性，同比-0.5pct至2.6%。化工链中除纯碱开工 大幅回落外，PTA、涤纶长丝等开工均有改善，同比分别+3.4pct至4.7%、+1.9pct至4.8%。汽车半钢胎开 工率也有明显好转，同比+15.5pct至-2.4%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工表现分化。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率均明显不及去年同期，同比 分别+1.5pct至-3.5%、-0.6pct至-6.9%。而沥青开工率有较大上行，同比+4.8pct至6.8%。 【下游需求】商品房成交持续回落，集运价格走势分化。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积有所回落，同 比-45.7pct至-12%；其中，一线、二线成交降幅较大。此外，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐 有所回落，同比分别-15.3pct至-6.2%、-7.1pct至-0.3%。集运价格表现分化，美西航线运价延续上涨，但 东南亚航线运价有较大回落。 【物价】农产品价格表现分化、工业品价格有所回升。 本周，农产品方面，蔬菜、鸡蛋价格有所回落， 环比分别-2.2%、-0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% year-on-year [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly below last year's levels, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices are showing divergent trends, with the price on the West America route continuing to rise, while prices on the Southeast Asia route have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices declining by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and macro - sentiment and downstream start - up should be monitored [4] 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is mostly from mid - to late January, and the resumption is expected around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and some after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell, and retail sales growth slowed. Fed officials need more data to determine the impact of tariff statements on prices and the economy [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased 1.5 percentage points to 57.5% [3] - On May 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 581,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday, 39,000 tons from last Thursday, and 166,000 tons from the same period last year, remaining at a near - three - year low [3] - Although the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots can maintain a de - stocking trend in the short term, around the end of May and early June, the circulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas may gradually ease. The key node of the subsequent inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots needs to be confirmed [3] - Short - term warming of the macro - atmosphere boosts prices, but subsequent consumption will enter the off - season, and inventory faces accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of fundamentals after the dissipation of macro - sentiment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The recent 90 - day tariff suspension agreement between China and the US has continued the positive impact of tariff policies, leading to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures prices. Propane prices have declined, but the production profit of PDH - made PP remains significantly in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined. There is an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new facility of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production. Among the existing facilities, the number of PE shutdown units has increased, with a slight decrease in the operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased, resulting in significant supply pressure in the polyolefin market. Polyolefin producers have accumulated large inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has seasonally decreased, while the operating rates of other industries are stable, mainly for rigid - demand purchases [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7339 yuan/ton (+152), PP main contract at 7193 yuan/ton (+119), LL North China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+100), PP East China spot at 7250 yuan/ton (+50), LL North China basis at 61 yuan/ton (+18), LL East China basis at 61 yuan/ton (-52), and PP East China basis at 57 yuan/ton (-69) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.8%), PP operating rate was 79.7% (+5.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 374.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), PP oil - based production profit was 34.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), and PDH - made PP production profit was - 266.6 yuan/ton (+163.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 95.1 yuan/ton (+92.5), PP import profit was - 238.5 yuan/ton (+62.6), and PP export profit was 18.3 US dollars/ton (-7.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 19.4% (-4.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 47.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.8% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 57.6% (-1.9%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin producers have significantly accumulated inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks, but no specific inventory data provided [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a downward - centered and weak manner, and will be in a state of shock consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and individual ones after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a shock - consolidated manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand. [3] For Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US CPI increased by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the consumer price index decreased by 0.1% in March. The easing of trade tensions reduced the market's expectation of an economic recession. [2] - Last week, the total operating capacity of alumina enterprises decreased slightly by 80,000 tons/year. In the short - term, the operating capacity may fluctuate. The spot price may rebound slightly, but the cost - side support is weakening, and the price is expected to move in a shock in the short - term. [3] - Last week, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%. [3] - On May 12, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 35,000 tons from May 6. It is expected to break through the 600,000 - ton mark this Thursday. [3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream operating rates, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release. [4]

晨报 成材 成材：需求偏低迷 钢价冲高回落 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：上周（5 月 5 日-5 月 11 日），10 个重点城市新建商品房成交 （签约）面积总计 145.48 万平方米，环比增长 13.2%，同比下降 17.7%。 奥维云网线上市场监测数据显示，4 月白电各品类中，冰箱、冰柜、洗衣 机、独立式干衣机和空调线上零售额规模同比分别为+1.0%、-0.8%、 +10.8%、+45.0%和+34.8%。5 月 13 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平 均成本为 3334 元/吨，日环比增加 8 元/吨，平均利润为-87 元/吨，谷电 利润为 18 元/吨，日环比增加 12 元/吨。5 月 13 日，唐山迁安普方坯资 源出厂含税下调 20，报 2950。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日冲高回落。5 月 12 日，中美"日内瓦经贸联合声明"的发 布在宏观层面上形成利好，大宗 ...

【物价】农产品、工业品价格多有回落。 本周，农产品方面，蔬菜、猪肉、鸡蛋价格有所回落，环比分 别-2.2%、-2.3%、-0.1%。工业品方面，南华工业品价格指数环比-0.4%。其中，能化价格指数环 比-0.9%，金属价格指数环比-0.4%。 风险提示 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、 屠强 、 赵宇 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产平稳运行，基建开工边际改善，人流出行强度大幅上行。 【工业生产】工业生产平稳运行。 本周，高炉开工保持韧性，同比-0.6pct至3.1%。化工链开工有所改 善，纯碱、PTA和涤纶长丝开工同比分别+1.5、+1.2、+1.6pct至1.3%、1.2%、2.9%。相比之下，汽车半 钢胎开工有较大回落，同比-11.3pct至-17.9%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工表现分化。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率有所回落，同比分别-14pct 至-5%、-3.8pct至-6.3%。沥青开工率同比有所上行，较前周+7pct至2%。 【下游需求】港口货运量明显好转，人流出行强度大幅回升。 本周，反映出口的港口货物吞吐量有较大 上行，同比+10.4pct至4.2%。 ...