Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a period of continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently shown divergence, with funds shifting between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased. Although short - term indices face uncertainty due to Sino - US tariff concerns, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. With the current market in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, the bond market is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to recover [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on dips, especially pay attention to the rising opportunities of silver prices [10]. - For most metals and non - metals, the impact of Trump's tariff threat on China is uncertain. Some metals are affected by short - term market sentiment, while in the long - run, their prices are supported by fundamentals. For example, copper and aluminum prices may rebound if the trade situation is only a short - term shock [13][15]. - For black building materials, although the new tariff statement may impact the commodity market, the overall macro - environment is gradually turning loose. The short - term weak reality is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to policy strength as the Fourth Plenary Session approaches [33]. - For energy chemicals, most products are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. Some products are recommended to wait and see, while others suggest short - term trading strategies based on market conditions [56][58]. - For agricultural products, factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal characteristics, and trade policies affect prices. For example, the pig price is expected to be stable in the north and decline in the south, and the soybean price is expected to fluctuate in a range [77][83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs on China. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 6.1%, and most popular Chinese concept stocks declined. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to strengthen technological research on high - end computing chips, and Shanghai aims to develop emerging industries [2]. - **Strategy**: After continuous rises, high - level hot sectors have shown divergence. Sino - US tariff concerns have disturbed the market in the short - term, but the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged in the long - run, suggesting a long - on - dips strategy [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: Bond prices declined on Friday. Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports and export controls on software. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy**: The recent Sino - US trade dispute has reduced risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's recovery. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress remains high. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold prices rose, and silver prices showed mixed performance. The uncertainty of US trade and economic policies has increased the demand for gold. The shortage of London silver spot is expected to continue [9]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips, especially focus on silver. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Trump's tariff threat led to a sharp decline in copper prices after a short - term rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The tariff threat is uncertain. Fundamentally, copper supply is expected to tighten, and if the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: The Sino - US trade situation caused aluminum prices to decline after a rise. Inventory increased slightly, and the market trading was dull [14]. - **Strategy**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. The supply - demand relationship of aluminum is expected to support the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices showed a slight decline. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and the export window opened [16][17]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc production was normal during the holiday. The low level of registered LME zinc warrants poses a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk volatility [18]. Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose slightly. LME lead inventory decreased significantly, and domestic inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Similar to zinc, short - term, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk volatility due to the trade situation and market sentiment [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices were affected by the Sino - US trade friction. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable, and the price of MHP was high [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, the trade friction may reduce market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - run, factors such as US easing expectations and domestic policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips if the price drops significantly [21]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices declined due to the Sino - US trade friction. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in some downstream industries is in the peak season [22]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, the trade friction may reduce market risk appetite, but the tin market is in a tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to remain high and volatile [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot price of carbonate lithium was stable, and the price of lithium concentrate decreased slightly [24]. - **Strategy**: The demand for lithium batteries has led to a reduction in social inventory, but the expected supply increase restricts the upside space of lithium prices. Attention should be paid to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [25]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index declined, and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The overseas price increased, and the import window is approaching closure [26][27]. - **Strategy**: The price of ore has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting industry is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies and Fed monetary policy [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices rose, and the social inventory decreased. The prices of raw materials remained stable [29]. - **Strategy**: The stainless steel market is caught between cost support and weak demand. If the price of nickel iron continues to rise, stainless steel prices may rise in a volatile manner [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Aluminum alloy prices followed the trend of aluminum prices, rising first and then falling. The cost support was relatively strong, and the inventory situation was mixed [30]. - **Strategy**: The cost of aluminum has decreased, and the delivery pressure of near - month contracts is relatively high. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and the reduction of raw material supply, the price is expected to have support [31]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, and the demand was weak during the National Day holiday [33]. - **Strategy**: The tariff policy may impact the steel market through the overall commodity sentiment. The short - term weak demand situation is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to policy strength as the Fourth Plenary Session approaches [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The supply of overseas mines was stable, and the demand for iron ore was affected by the production of steel mills [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore may decline slightly, and the demand is affected by the production of steel mills. The new tariff statement may impact the price, and different trading strategies should be adopted according to the development of the trade situation [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. The buying enthusiasm of downstream customers was relatively high [38]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term and pay attention to policy trends [38]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Market News**: Soda ash prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The market trading was stable [39]. - **Strategy**: The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable in the short - term [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined slightly. The market was affected by Trump's tariff statement [40]. - **Strategy**: The black building materials sector may first decline and then rebound. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to follow the trend of the black building materials sector, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. The supply and demand situation was relatively stable, and the cost support was relatively strong [45]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate. In the long - run, the price is expected to rise due to factors such as reduced supply in the southwest region and increased cost [48]. - **Polysilicon**: - **Market News**: Polysilicon prices declined. The supply was relatively high, and the demand was weak [49]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. In the long - run, the supply - demand pattern may improve after the maintenance of leading manufacturers in November [50]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices declined due to the US tariff statement. The weather in Thailand may affect rubber production, and the tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday [52][54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term according to the trend. A hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 is suggested [56]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices declined, and the inventory of refined oil products showed different trends [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a range - trading strategy of going long on dips and shorting on rallies [58]. Methanol and Urea - **Market News**: The prices of methanol and urea showed similar trends. The supply was relatively high, and the demand was weak during the holiday [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as the short - term fundamental situation is weak, but the downside space is limited [59][60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The supply of pure benzene was relatively wide, and the inventory of styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling with the arrival of the seasonal peak season [62]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices declined. The supply was relatively high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [63]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices declined. The supply was relatively high, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies as the supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter and the valuation is relatively high [66]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices declined. The supply was affected by device maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable [67][68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, but the processing fee space is limited, and the demand terminal shows signs of weakness [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices declined. The supply was relatively high, and the inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as the p - Xylene market is in a situation of high supply and low demand, and the valuation is relatively low [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices declined. The upstream开工率 increased, and the inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to oscillate upward as the cost support exists, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in the seasonal peak season [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices declined. The upstream开工率 decreased slightly, and the inventory situation was mixed [74]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. The price is affected by factors such as planned production capacity and seasonal demand [75]. Agricultural Products Pig - **Market News**: Pig prices declined in most regions. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was relatively weak [77]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, but the risk for the Spring Festival has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and pay attention to positive spreads opportunities [78]. Egg - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable. The supply was relatively large, and the demand was affected by the economic environment [79]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be bearish on the near - term and wait for opportunities to go short after the price rebounds in the medium - term [81]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices rose. The supply of soybeans was relatively high [82]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is relatively large. In the medium - term, it is recommended to go short on rallies, and in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [83]. Edible Oils - **Market News**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased in October. The price of domestic edible oils declined due to the decline of crude oil prices and weak market sentiment [84]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term as the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten [85]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices declined. The production of sugar in Brazil increased in the first half of September [88]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the supply of sugar is expected to increase [89]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices rose slightly. The Sino - US trade conflict resumed, and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The short - term cotton price is expected to decline due to weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors [91].

黑色建材日报 2025-10-13 郎志杰 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3103 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.226%）。当日注册仓单 277267 吨, 环比增加 1531 吨。主力合约持仓量为 192.6153 万手，环比增加 18024 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3285 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 1 元/吨（-0.03%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 139.7651 万手，环比增加 23065 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3320 元/ 吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3350 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanl ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Financial Conditions**: Domestic financial conditions are stabilizing, with loose fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which helps to build consensus, boost expectations, and attract foreign capital [1][3] - **Investment Focus**: The main investment themes include technology, particularly AI innovation and semiconductor equipment, as well as adjusted financial sectors and industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and new energy [1][4] Company Insights - **Aviation Industry**: During the 2025 National Day holiday, air passenger traffic significantly increased, with ticket prices rising beyond expectations. The aviation industry is expected to see profits surpassing 2019 levels in Q3 2025, contingent on the recovery of business travel demand [1][5] - **LNG Shipping Market**: The LNG shipping market is expected to perform well in Q4 2025, benefiting from OPEC's production increase and additional supply from South America and West Africa, indicating a rebound in profitability for shipping companies [1][7] - **Coal Market**: The coal market is experiencing a dual improvement in supply and demand, with prices expected to rise gradually starting in the second half of 2026. The focus on coal stocks is increasing due to supply constraints and unexpected demand [1][14][15][16] Key Industry Trends - **Oil Prices**: Recent declines in oil prices are attributed to geopolitical factors, tariffs, and OPEC+ production increases. Future price movements will depend on the attitudes of oil-producing countries and geopolitical developments [1][8][9] - **Steel Industry**: The steel sector is expected to perform well in Q4, with historical data suggesting that policy-related factors can lead to year-end rallies. The industry is also seeing a shift towards a more stable supply-demand balance, with potential profit increases in the coming years [1][19][20] Recommendations - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Aviation**: Focus on companies that can capitalize on the recovery of business travel and rising ticket prices [1][5] - **LNG Shipping**: Companies like China Merchants Energy and China Ship Leasing are recommended due to expected profitability rebounds [1][7] - **Coal**: Companies like China Shenhua and other major state-owned enterprises are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for profit growth [1][18][17] - **Steel**: Recommended companies include Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which have cost advantages and strong market positions [1][20] Additional Insights - **Geopolitical Impact**: The current geopolitical landscape is influencing market dynamics, with clearer boundaries around trade risks compared to earlier in the year. This clarity is seen as an opportunity for investors to increase their holdings in Chinese assets [2][3] - **Consumer Building Materials**: The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to perform well despite a challenging market environment [1][24][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of various industries and companies.

Market Overview - On October 13, U.S. stock index futures opened significantly higher, with the Dow futures up 0.66%, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both rising over 1% [1] - The latest data shows that major U.S. indices experienced a rebound, with Alibaba rising over 5%, Baidu and NIO up over 4%, and JD.com increasing over 2% [2] Recent Market Events - On October 10, global markets faced a significant downturn, with the Nasdaq dropping over 3%, marking its largest single-day decline since April. European markets also fell sharply, and WTI crude oil dropped over 4% [5] - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on certain Chinese exports, leading to a strong response from China's Ministry of Commerce, emphasizing the need for dialogue and negotiation to resolve trade disputes [5] Analyst Insights - According to a report from CICC, the recent events have caused noticeable disturbances in global assets, but the impact on A-shares is expected to be less severe than in early April. The report suggests that the market's reaction to the current situation may be more measured due to previous experiences [6] - Guotai Junan Securities expressed a more optimistic view compared to the consensus, stating that the current trade risks are clearer than in April, and external shocks will not derail the overall trend. The firm believes that the recent market declines present buying opportunities for quality assets in China [7] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a significant rebound on October 13, with Bitcoin rising over 4% to above $115,000, and Ethereum increasing by over 10% [7][8] - Other cryptocurrencies like SOL and Dogecoin also experienced substantial gains, with SOL up over 10% and Dogecoin rising over 11% [8] Gold Market - Gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching a record high of $4,060.05 per ounce, reflecting strong demand amid market volatility [10] Asian Markets - The South Korean stock market opened significantly lower but managed to stabilize, with the KOSPI index initially dropping over 2.6% before narrowing its losses to around 1.4% [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on President Trump's threats regarding export controls on Boeing aircraft parts in response to China's new rare earth regulations. This situation highlights the deteriorating relationship and the potential long-term impacts on both countries' aviation industries. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has threatened to impose export controls on Boeing aircraft parts as a reaction to China's recent rare earth export regulations [1] - The trade dispute has led to a significant decline in Boeing's orders from China, dropping from 25% to less than 5% of total orders [1] - The situation is characterized as Trump having "no good cards to play" against China, leading to reckless decisions that could harm Boeing's reputation [1] Group 2: Impact on Boeing and the Aviation Industry - Boeing has faced challenges in the Chinese market, with Chinese airlines having ordered at least 222 Boeing aircraft, while currently operating 1,855 [4] - The potential export controls could also impact CFM International, a major manufacturer of commercial aircraft engines used in Boeing's 737 MAX [4] - The article notes that Airbus holds 185 orders from Chinese customers and has a production base in Tianjin, producing about four A320 aircraft monthly [4] Group 3: Domestic Aviation Developments in China - China is actively promoting its domestic commercial aircraft industry, with the C919 aircraft competing against Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320 [4] - Chinese airlines have ordered 365 domestic aircraft, indicating a shift towards local production [4] - The article mentions that while Trump's threats may not directly affect domestic aircraft manufacturing, they could disrupt the maintenance and operation of existing Boeing fleets in China [6]

Group 1 - The trade dispute between the US and China has entered a new phase, shifting from cooperation discussions to a focus on who will concede first [1] - The US has maintained a hardline stance on trade policies, with tariffs being redefined as part of "security considerations" and "industrial policy," particularly in technology and manufacturing [1][3] - China's traditional exports are declining as companies seek new markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, indicating a shift in commercial ties between the two nations [3] Group 2 - The US aims to reshape global supply chains to reduce dependency on China, encouraging companies to reassess their supply sources [4] - The US is actively promoting a "de-China" trade circle through technology cooperation with Japan and South Korea, and industrial transfers to Mexico, establishing a "non-China priority" supply system [6] - The US's anxiety about losing its core position in the global supply chain is driving its hardening trade policies [7] Group 3 - China's economic policy is increasingly focused on domestic circulation, aiming to boost internal demand and technological independence in response to external pressures [9] - Despite the tensions, China remains open to dialogue with the US, emphasizing the need to address structural issues such as technology restrictions and investment discrimination [10] - The upcoming APEC summit is seen as a potential platform for the US to seek trade agreements, particularly in agriculture and energy, but is unlikely to lead to a significant reconciliation [10][12] Group 4 - The ongoing trade conflict is not merely an economic issue but a strategic competition that could reshape the global order, with both nations vying for advantageous positions [12] - The outcome of this prolonged contest will depend on each country's ability to define its development direction amidst external challenges [12]

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 随着大豆进入收获季，失去中国客户的美国农户陷入"生存之战"。 据《华尔街日报》7日报道，在设备与化肥成本攀升、玉米和大豆供应过剩的双重压力下，美国豆农的 财务状况已经岌岌可危。为安抚农民情绪，美国国会去年12月曾通过了一项价值100亿美元的农业救助 计划，特朗普政府正考虑再追加100亿至140亿美元资金，以缓解此次贸易争端给农户带来的冲击。 本周一（6日），特朗普在白宫宣布，他将在"本周出台农业相关扶持措施"，帮助种植户应对对华出口 下滑损失。一名白宫官员向美媒透露，特朗普预计将在本周晚些时候与美农业部长罗林斯会面，最终确 定农业救助资金的来源。此前，特朗普及其团队曾宣称，将考虑动用关税收入来为救助计划提供大部分 资金支持。 美国农业部发言人对此回应称，特朗普正"动用一切可用工具"，以确保农户拥有维持农业生产所需的资 源。 另据《纽约时报》报道，农民们期待救助计划能尽早公布，但白宫方面推诿称，政府持续停摆导致该计 划被迫推迟。 10月6日，特朗普在白宫召开记者会。白宫视频截图 然而，农时不等人。眼看政府迟迟拿不出切实解决方案，美国豆农的恐慌情绪正进一步加剧。 罗恩·金德里德（Ron ...

Core Insights - The Argentine government announced the temporary cancellation of export withholding taxes on agricultural products, including grains, beef, and poultry, to boost exports and stabilize the local currency [1] - Following this policy change, Chinese buyers ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans, each approximately 65,000 tons, indicating a shift away from U.S. soybean purchases [1][2] - The cancellation of the export tax is set to last until October 31, aiming to increase dollar supply in Argentina [1] Impact on Soybean Market - The removal of the export withholding tax makes Argentine soybeans more attractive to China, although the impact may be short-lived due to the limited overall supply from Argentina [2] - U.S. farmers are facing significant losses as they miss out on soybean orders during the critical sales season, with estimates suggesting losses could reach 14 to 16 million tons if China does not enter the U.S. market by mid-November [5][6] Trade Dynamics - Historically, China has been a major buyer of U.S. soybeans, importing nearly $13 billion worth last year, but trade tensions have drastically reduced these orders [5] - In 2024, China's imports of U.S. soybeans are projected to account for only 20% of total imports, a significant drop from 41% in 2016 [5] - The shift in purchasing patterns has led to over 70% of China's soybean imports coming from Brazil, doubling the figure from 15 years ago [5] Diplomatic Context - Chinese officials emphasize the importance of agricultural cooperation between China and the U.S., arguing that agriculture should not be politicized [6] - The Chinese government expresses willingness to collaborate with the U.S. to resolve trade issues and enhance mutual benefits [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The temporary exemption of grain export tariffs in Argentina, combined with the disappointment from the China-US talks and the expected decline in high-frequency palm oil exports, has a strong short - term impact on the market, causing a significant correction in the domestic futures market. In the long - term, it is difficult to affect the domestic soybean system pattern, and fundamental variables need to be focused on [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Reaction - Argentina's decision to cancel export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products from September 22nd to October 31st to ease the shortage of US dollar supply has led to a decline in the Chicago soybean oil futures to the lowest level since mid - June. The main contracts of domestic soybean and palm oil futures once fell to 8018 and 8946 points, with declines of 3.91% and 4.06% respectively [1]. Driving Factors - **Argentina's Export Tax Adjustment**: Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third - largest soybean producer. The cancellation of export taxes intensifies competition in the international soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal markets. Throughout 2025, different export tax adjustments in Argentina have had various impacts on the market. For example, on January 27th, the market expected an export surge and potential increase in soybean production, but the domestic market rose due to other factors. On July 26th, the permanent tax reduction led to a slight downturn in the market [4][5]. - **China - US Talks**: The much - anticipated phone call between the US and Chinese leaders did not bring new information on agricultural product trade. China, as the world's largest soybean importer and the main export destination for US soybeans, has not purchased any new - season US soybeans. The seasonal harvest pressure in the US and the China - US trade dispute have put pressure on the market and accelerated the decline [5]. Market Outlook - In the short - term, there is a resonance in the domestic oil market. In the long - term, since the domestic soybean market mainly imports from Brazil, and Argentina's direct impact on domestic soybean import costs is low, the temporary exemption of export tariffs in Argentina is unlikely to affect the domestic soybean system pattern, and fundamental changes need to be closely monitored [7].

Group 1 - The US-China trade negotiations are tense, focusing on four key areas: ongoing tariff disputes, sensitive technology export controls, the controversial TikTok operations, and global energy and geopolitical dynamics [1] - The US and China have agreed to maintain a 90-day tariff ceasefire, but substantial differences remain on key issues [1] - Traditional allies of the US, including the EU, G7, NATO, and Japan, have shown reluctance towards Trump's proposal for a 100% tariff increase on China, indicating a lack of consensus among allies [3] Group 2 - The US is facing challenges in retaining skilled foreign talent, as evidenced by the backlash from South Korea over the detention of over 300 high-tech professionals, leading to many returning home [3] - Trump's acknowledgment of the need for foreign talent in key sectors like agriculture, construction, and high-tech highlights a talent crisis in the US [3] - The decline of traditional American industries, such as shipbuilding, is evident, with a significant drop in production capabilities [4] Group 3 - Trump believes that foreign investment can help revitalize the US economy by providing capital and technology, which can enhance local workforce skills [5] - The current policies of the Trump administration appear increasingly ineffective, with little hope for substantial breakthroughs in the ongoing US-China trade negotiations [5] - The future of US-China economic relations is expected to be more contentious, requiring China to maintain strategic readiness against potential new US tactics [5]