2019年-2025年全年全国采矿业累计产能利用率统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 2019Q4-2025Q4全国采矿业单季度产能利用率统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国采矿业市场竞争态势及投资方向分析报告》 2025年第四季度，全国采矿业单季度产能利用率为71.7%，单季度比上年同期下降3.9个百分点；2025年 全年，全国采矿业累计产能利用率为72.8%，累计比上年同期下降2.5个百分点。 ...

Core Insights - The capacity utilization rate for the national electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry in Q4 2025 was 74%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the cumulative capacity utilization rate for the industry was 73.4%, which represents an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Summary by Category - **Quarterly Performance** - In Q4 2025, the single-quarter capacity utilization rate was recorded at 74%, showing a decline of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - **Annual Performance** - The cumulative capacity utilization rate for the entire year of 2025 reached 73.4%, indicating a recovery with an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (implies a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ (indicates a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (suggests an upward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Ethylene: ★☆☆ (implies an upward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (not clearly defined in the star - rating description, but the position implies a certain trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (suggests an upward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (suggests an upward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations, with different products showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] - Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand relationship of various chemical products is changing, and the market is in a state of adjustment. After the Spring Festival, the market trends of different products need to be further observed [2][3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with a tight supply pattern before the festival. The demand side was mainly rational buyers [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose, but the downward trend along the 5 - day moving average continued. The demand support for the market weakened [2] Polyester - Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices, and PX and PTA rebounded. PX is recommended for long - term allocation in the first half of the year, but there is an expected inventory build - up around the Spring Festival [3] - Ethylene glycol inventory increased. It will oscillate in the short term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price follows the raw materials [3] - Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure. Consider positive spread trading opportunities after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene in East China fell, and the downstream comprehensive capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The short - term market is affected by cost and demand, and the fundamentals may weaken [5] - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. After the Spring Festival, there are uncertainties on the supply side, which still support the market [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The start - up of overseas methanol plants increased, and the coastal demand weakened. The domestic methanol inventory is transferred downstream, and the short - term fundamentals are weak [6] - The urea price is stable. The domestic output is increasing, and the market will oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices declined. The industry will enter a seasonal inventory build - up period, but it is expected to rise due to cost support and export demand [7] - Caustic soda is running weakly. The cost support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback continues. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly. The inventory pressure is high, and it is recommended to take a high - short strategy in the long term [8] - Glass prices declined. There is inventory build - up pressure during the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate widely [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Henan Jiachen Intelligent Control Co., Ltd., is preparing for an IPO with plans to raise 260 million yuan for production and R&D, but faces significant operational contradictions and risks, including declining capacity utilization, reliance on imported chips, and a high dependency on government subsidies for profits [2][6][28]. Group 1: Business Relationships - The presence of Hangcha Group as both the second-largest shareholder (22.22%) and the largest customer raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest in business dealings [17][18]. - Sales revenue from Hangcha Group for Jiachen Intelligent was 178 million yuan, 168 million yuan, and 161 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, accounting for 52.95%, 44.69%, and 42.16% of total revenue respectively, indicating a significant reliance on this customer [18][19]. Group 2: Supplier Agreements - Jiachen Intelligent's core raw material, the motor controller, is primarily sourced from Sapai Group, with procurement ratios of 45.94%, 69.96%, and 53.10% from 2022 to 2024 [4][19]. - A unique clause in the procurement agreement requires Jiachen Intelligent to pay 10% of the difference between the agreed procurement target and actual purchases if targets are not met, which raises concerns about the fairness of procurement conditions [4][19]. Group 3: Profitability and Subsidies - Government subsidies contributed significantly to Jiachen Intelligent's profits, with amounts of 13.78 million yuan, 14.25 million yuan, and 16.96 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing 22.79%, 27.90%, and 27.81% of total profits [5][20]. - In 2024, the net profit was 57 million yuan, with nearly 17 million yuan coming from government subsidies, highlighting a concerning reliance on external support for profitability [6][21]. Group 4: Capacity Utilization - The company's capacity utilization has declined from 110.22% in 2022 to 82.33% in 2024, raising questions about the rationale for expanding production capacity while current utilization is decreasing [7][22]. - The North Exchange has requested clarification on the necessity of new capacity projects given the declining utilization rates [22]. Group 5: Supply Chain Risks - Jiachen Intelligent relies heavily on imported chips, with procurement amounts fluctuating between 5.96% and 9.86% of total purchases during the reporting period, indicating vulnerability to international trade dynamics [8][23]. - The company has acknowledged the challenge of transitioning to domestic suppliers, which poses a risk to its production operations if trade policies change unfavorably [8][23]. Group 6: Market Share and Competition - The company's market share has shown significant volatility, with shares in different categories of Hangcha Group's forklifts fluctuating dramatically, indicating instability in its core customer base [9][24]. - For instance, the share in category I forklifts dropped from 58.20% in 2022 to 34.80% in 2023, before recovering to 52.14% in 2024, while category III saw a decline from 17.85% to just 5% [9][25]. Group 7: Financial Health - Accounts receivable have surged from 50.11 million yuan in 2022 to 130 million yuan in 2024, suggesting potential issues with business quality [10][26]. - The accounts receivable turnover days increased from 61 days in 2023 to 142 days in 2025, indicating a slowdown in cash collection and reduced efficiency [11][26]. - In contrast, net cash flow from operating activities plummeted by 61.02% in 2024, from 90.09 million yuan to 35.12 million yuan, further highlighting financial strain [12][27].

| Million | 国投斯特 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月06日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | ななな | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 爱两烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | ☆☆☆ | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ★☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃 ...

4、 ABS 产能利用率 66.8%，环比下降 3%，厂家供应依旧十分紧张，控量发 货为主，且进入 1 月份后多为高价货源，节后归来市场询盘问价增多，成交放量， 价格呈现反弹。此外，UPR 产能利用率 38%，环比下降 1%；丁苯橡胶开工 82.92%， 环比持稳。 【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：止跌反弹，关注库存变化 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至 1 月 27 日，1 月苯乙烯华东江苏主流库区总库存量在 9.45-12.33 万吨区间波动。苯乙烯华东主要港口的库存整体仍处于历史低位区间，现货流通 性仍偏紧。 2、从下游三大领域（EPS、PS 和 ABS）的生产情况来看，截至 1 月 22 日当 周，EPS 产能利用率 58.71%，环比增长 4.66%，下游需求淡季，商家追涨情绪谨 慎，整体成交氛围欠佳。 3、 PS 产能利用率 57.3%，环比下降 0.1%，南京装置恢复、广西长科重启， 但连云港石化、宁波利万各减 1 条线，行业供应暂时稳定，行业总供应量平稳， 市场出货一般，库存转为上涨。 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 20 均 线附近。成交量较昨日增 44.7 万手，持仓量较昨日增 12546 手；日内最高 1234， 最低 1201，收盘 1229，（较昨结算价）涨 25 元/吨，涨幅 2.08%。 2，现货市场：低位震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，徐州丰成停车检修，产量窄 幅下移。下游需求不温不火，保持随用随采。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨，环比增加 0.32 万吨；重碱产量 42.11 万吨，环比增加 0.82 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.19%，上周 86.42%，环比 下降 2.23%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.99%，环比增加 1.30%；联产产能利用率 74.65%，环比下降 3.34%。 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反复拉扯，油价反弹。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，美伊谈判仍有较大 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 不确定性，油价波动加剧，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩格局仍 | | ★ | | 未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩油产量 | | | | 变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘缓和，成本端油价回落，液化气跟随油价回落。成本端油价短期 | | LPG | | 受地缘扰动反弹走强，沙特上调 2 月 CP 合同价，成本端利好；供需方面， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 液化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存 | | | | 在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 标品装置陆续回归，仓单增加，基本面偏空，短期产业可关注逢高套保机 | | | 空头盘整 | 会。近期装置陆续回归，预计本周产量环比增加，农膜需求淡季，基差跌 | | ★ | | 至同期低位，关注后市需求验证情况。 | | | | 地缘扰动仍存，短期跟随成本震荡 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：外盘情绪影响下高位回落 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至 1 月 27 日，1 月苯乙烯华东江苏主流库区总库存量在 9.45-12.33 万吨区间波动。苯乙烯华东主要港口的库存整体仍处于历史低位区间，现货流通 性仍偏紧。 2、从下游三大领域（EPS、PS 和 ABS）的生产情况来看，截至 1 月 22 日当 周，EPS 产能利用率 58.71%，环比增长 4.66%，下游需求淡季，商家追涨情绪谨 慎，整体成交氛围欠佳。 3、 PS 产能利用率 57.3%，环比下降 0.1%，南京装置恢复、广西长科重启， 但连云港石化、宁波利万各减 1 条线，行业供应暂时稳定，行业总供应量平稳， 市场出货一般，库存转为上涨。 4、 ABS 产能利用率 66.8%，环比下降 3%，厂家供应依旧十分紧张，控量发 货为主，且进入 1 月份后多为高价货源，节后归来市场询盘问价增多，成交放量， 价格呈现反弹。此外，UPR 产能利用率 38%，环比下降 1%；丁苯橡胶开工 82.92%， 环比持稳。 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将 ...