招商证券表示，德康长期深耕于生猪及黄羽鸡养殖行业，经年累积的育种优势使得其畜禽成本领先于同 行。生猪方面，公司长期致力于成本挖潜，目前完全成本或已降至12元/千克左右，稳居行业第一梯 队；预计未来仍有压降空间。公司计划在遵循政策引导的前提下，重点发展二号家庭农场模式，联农带 动，积极响应国家号召，彰显头部猪企的责任担当。 消息面上，根据iFind数据，12月末全国能繁母猪存栏量降至3961万头，较10月调减29万头，去产能效 果逐步显现。华福证券发布研报称，猪价偏弱运行，叠加产能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续， 有望推动长期猪价中枢上移，低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。 智通财经APP获悉，德康农牧(02419)午后涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.44%，报76.05港元，成交额7823.85 万港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the accelerated capacity reduction in the livestock sector, with significant capital inflow into the breeding segment, as evidenced by the livestock ETF (159865) experiencing over 180 million yuan in net inflow for two consecutive days [1] Group 2 - In the poultry farming sector, the frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas create uncertainty for the introduction of grandparent stock, which is expected to positively impact the price of the white feather chicken industry chain in the medium to long term [1] - In the pig farming sector, pig prices are declining, and group farms are increasing their output, but demand support is insufficient, leading to price fluctuations. There is still pressure on supply, and combined with policy guidance, capacity reduction may accelerate [1] - The animal health industry shows potential for continued growth, with new products being launched by various companies providing growth momentum [1] - In the seed industry, attention should be paid to the progress of biological breeding expansion [1] - In the pet sector, export order disruptions have limited impact, while domestic sales continue to show a growth trend, with domestic brands increasing their market share [1] Group 3 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and vaccine veterinary medicine from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the livestock farming industry chain [1] - The constituent stocks cover the entire industry chain from upstream feed production to downstream livestock farming [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown signs of recovery, with the agricultural index rising by 2.23%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industries [12][15]. - The pig price has experienced fluctuations, initially strong but later declining, with an average price of 12.83 CNY/kg for the week, down 1.06% from the previous week [6][17]. - The white feather chicken market has seen a rebound in chick prices, with an average price of 2.7 CNY/chick, and a rise in broiler chicken prices to 3.85 CNY/kg, up 4.05% from the previous week [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 2.23% [12]. - The pig farming sector continues to face challenges, with a decline in prices despite some recovery in demand [15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price fluctuated between 12.9 and 13.0 CNY/kg, ending the week at 12.51 CNY/kg [6][17]. - The average weight of pigs at market was 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg from the previous week [19]. - The breeding capacity is slowly decreasing, with a December count of 39.61 million breeding sows, down 1.83% from Q3 [20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have rebounded to 2.7 CNY/chick, while broiler prices have increased to 3.85 CNY/kg [30]. - The supply of breeding chickens remains sufficient, with 40% of the annual breeding stock imported [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - The national average price for white sugar is 5295 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton [34]. - The price of corn has slightly increased to 2314 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton from the previous week [34].

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybean prices surged due to favorable US biodiesel policies, including a $1 per gallon tax credit for low-carbon transportation fuels [2][10] - Domestic protein meal market is weak, with inventory levels rising and terminal demand decreasing as stocking needs are nearing completion [2][10] - Oil mill operating rates are steadily increasing, contributing to supply pressure in the protein meal market [2][10] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil prices fell, following a general decline in commodity prices, but saw a rebound in night trading [3][11] - The US biodiesel policy changes are expected to impact the market, with a focus on the import policies for canola and the pace of inventory reduction in palm oil [3][11] - Domestic oil markets are showing signs of recovery, with palm oil prices trending stronger [3][11] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures experienced a decline, with a 0.53% drop, closing at 11,160 yuan per ton [5][12] - The average price of live pigs in China decreased to 12.34 yuan per kilogram, with regional variations noted [5][12] - Supply from northern farms is increasing, but limited demand from downstream markets is causing prices to fall [5][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures showed a decline of 0.74%, closing at 2,953 yuan per 500 kilograms [6][13] - The national average egg price fell to 3.65 yuan per jin, with regional prices also decreasing [6][13] - Demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a continued decline in egg prices [6][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn near-month futures saw a reduction in open interest, with a decrease of 58,000 contracts [7][14] - Prices in North China are stable but lack upward momentum, while farmers are increasingly willing to sell as the Spring Festival nears [7][14] - The market is experiencing a general decline in corn prices, with weak downstream demand affecting transactions [7][14]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [70] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a faster pace of market release, leading to a decline in pig prices. As of January 30, the price was 12.24 CNY/kg, down 0.68 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were 25.10 CNY/head and 124.13 CNY/head, showing a week-on-week change of -18.25 CNY and +8.29 CNY respectively [2][8][29] - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising, and import restrictions on beef are expected to support long-term price increases. As of January 30, the price for fattened bulls was 25.71 CNY/kg, up 0.19% week-on-week, while calf prices were 33.14 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [3][31] - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in white chicken prices due to pre-Spring Festival stocking. As of January 30, the price for white feathered meat chickens was 7.74 CNY/kg, up 0.24% week-on-week [3][36] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pace of market release is accelerating, resulting in a decline in pig prices. The average weight of pigs released is decreasing, with the industry average at 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg week-on-week. The supply from large farms is increasing, contributing to the price drop [2][19][29] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, down 290,000 from October, indicating a gradual effect of capacity reduction policies [2][29] Beef Industry - The calf market is tight, leading to price increases. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to supply constraints from reduced breeding cow numbers [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented measures to restrict imported beef, which is expected to benefit domestic beef prices [3][31] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing price increases due to tight supply and increased demand from pre-holiday stocking. The price for chicken products is also rising, with a notable increase in profits for both chicken farming and slaughtering [3][36][39] Dairy Industry - The raw milk price is currently at a low point, with expectations for continued capacity reduction. As of January 23, the price was 3.04 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week. The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases [3][32][34] Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture is enhancing market inspections and intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified crops [3][45]

近日，山东龙大美食（002726）股份有限公司（以下简称"龙大美食"）发布2025年业绩预告，受生猪行 业整体下行影响，该公司业绩承压，传统业务板块出现较大亏损，报告期内，该公司按照企业会计准则 的相关规定对存货及生物资产计提了减值准备。在当前猪价持续低迷、全行业普遍亏损的背景下，该公 司正经历着周期底部的"阵痛"，并启动了一系列旨在优化资产配置、提升效率的战略调整，以期在行业 筑底过程中实现"轻装上阵"。 龙大美食的业绩表现是生猪养殖行业整体困境的一个缩影。统计显示，A股生猪养殖行业（申万三级行 业）的12家上市公司目前均已披露2025年业绩预告，除了天域生物（603717）科技股份有限公司，其余 公司均预计报告期内的净利润同比减少。 上海钢联（300226）农产品事业部生猪分析师王红焱向《证券日报》记者表示，生猪养殖行业呈现 出"量增价跌、盈利分化"的特征，受能繁母猪存栏持续高位运行影响，出栏量大幅提升，而猪价同比大 幅下跌导致行业自2025年9月份起进入亏损区间。 对于龙大美食而言，公司通过一系列"做减法"与"提质量"的举措，旨在优化资产结构、聚焦核心优势， 其转型成效能否在下一轮行业景气回升时转化为切 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-2 长江期货养殖产业月报 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 目 02 鸡蛋：供应压力仍存，盘面偏弱运行 录 03 玉米：供需相对平衡，盘面震荡运行 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 u 期现货：截至1月30日，全国生猪价格12.21元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.46元/公斤；河南生猪均价12.46元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.72元/公斤，03期货价格收于11220元/吨，较上月 底下跌575元/吨，跌幅4.87%；03合约基差1240元/吨，较上月底跌145元/吨。1月猪价先涨后跌，月均价重心抬升，因12月出栏超预期，1月中上旬企业出栏节奏偏慢，二育进 场和养殖端惜售，叠加中旬降温降雪天气，支撑价格上涨；下旬企业出栏节奏恢复，而春节备货尚早，终端需求不及预期，屠宰量下滑，猪价高位回落。期货主力03在宏观情绪 扰动下，跟随现货先扬后抑，03贴水收窄，基差走弱。 u 供应端：9月官方能 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．上周包括供应紧缩/饲料利空/深加工补库平淡利空等因素主导玉米03主力下行，但仍未完全消化，预计本周缓慢震荡下行。现货方面自明显触顶后，基 层的惜售情绪出现缓和，整体支撑有限。 2．本周天气情况或值得关注，东北地区普遍出现升温预报，缺乏标准储藏条件的地趴粮或加快交售进度；但由于持续性低，或将仅短暂触发现货下调，节 后来自天气方面的风险因素将提高关注频率。 3．东北方面的整体库存仍处于历史地位，未出现明显回调可能。同时今日中储粮将竞价采购12.4万吨玉米，来自政策调整方向的价格支撑依然明显。市场 对节前的备货潮期待基本归零，重心逐步转向节后积累的博弈情绪。 观点总结：供需紧平衡的局面暂未有明显的缓解趋势，节前维持震荡态势，玉米03主力观察2250附近的支撑，上方维持2330。 豆粕：中性 1．美元指数走强、宏观情绪拖累，隔夜CBOT大豆收跌。海外市场继续在阿根廷干旱引致的减产预期与巴西丰产兑现之间权衡，预报显示未来一周巴西中 西部降雨充沛，周度累计普遍在65毫米以上，有利于作物生长，但需关注是否会对收割工作造成阻碍；阿根廷布宜诺斯艾 ...

农林牧渔行业：猪价短期回暖，不 改去化趋势 2026 年 1 月 30 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，12 月均价下行。农业农村部监测数据显示， 2025 年 12 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 23.40 元/公斤、12.26 元/公斤和 22.63 元/公斤，环比变化分别为-3.50%、-2.27%和-1.81%。猪价在 12 月底部 回升，但均价下行。26 年 1 月猪价明显回升，截至 1 月 20 日，全国外三元生 猪均价 12.90 元/公斤。 供应端： 12 月份，疫病点状爆发和行业亏损影响，养殖端整体出栏节奏偏快。 进入 26 年 1 月，规模场按照正常节奏出栏，中小散户节奏放缓，对 1 月上旬 猪价形成支撑。需求端：元旦支撑需求阶段性走高，12 月生猪屠宰开工率环 比上涨 5.32 个百分点至 39.44%。1 月春节备货逐步开启，终端市场有所提振。 但屠宰端冻品出库对开工率和价格上行造成阻力。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，10 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，环 比下降 1.10%，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头 ...

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybean prices experienced a slight decline due to expectations of a bumper harvest in Brazil, with the Brazilian soybean production expected to reach record levels and exports projected at 110 million tons, a 6.7% increase from the previous year [2] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association reported that soybean exports in January are expected to be 3.23 million tons, lower than the earlier forecast of 3.79 million tons [2] - Domestic protein meal showed strong fluctuations, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand, although arbitrage funds limited the price increase [2] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil reached a three-month high, driven by rising commodity and crude oil prices, with increased geopolitical risks contributing to the price surge [3] - Domestic oilseed prices rose, with palm oil leading the increase, followed by soybean oil and rapeseed oil, supported by higher import costs and bullish market sentiment [3] - The market is characterized by mixed long and short positions, with prices showing strong fluctuations [3] Group 3: Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract fell by 0.93%, closing at 11,165 yuan per ton, with the average price of live pigs in China at 12.34 yuan per kilogram, down 0.22 yuan from the previous day [4] - Increased supply from the breeding sector and weak demand led to a surplus, causing pig prices to continue declining [4] - The long-term trend of pig production capacity reduction remains unchanged, with attention on the pace of capacity reduction and potential opportunities in future contracts [4] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures broke the weekly fluctuation range and experienced a pullback, with the main contract down by 0.89%, closing at 3,021 yuan per 500 kilograms [12] - The national average egg price was 3.99 yuan per pound, with slight fluctuations in various markets [12] - The market is stable with some adjustments, and there is a warning of potential price declines as stocking approaches completion [12] Group 5: Corn - The main corn futures contract saw a reduction in positions, with limited fund inflows for the May and September contracts, leading to price declines [5] - High purchase prices in the northern ports and strong processing prices in production areas provided some support to market prices [5] - The overall pace of grain sales remains slow compared to the previous year, with stable prices in the sales regions [5]