Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change, but in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and national policy changes [2] - The significant pressure on the supply side of eggs makes the festival boost obviously weak this year, and attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 13,320 yuan/ton, a change of +5.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change of +0.04% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.50 yuan/kg, a change of +0.02 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.65 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 13.15 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Agricultural product prices: On September 11, the "200 - Index of Agricultural Product Wholesale Prices" rose 0.11 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.13 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.93 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 65.77 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 61.17 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; eggs were 7.93 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; white - striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of group factories has significantly weakened the boosting effect of festivals this year. The pig production capacity has remained at around 40.5 million heads for about a year, and there is room for reduction in the production capacity in the future with the improvement of production efficiency [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 3044 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +25.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a change of +0.83% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.27 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.65 yuan/jin, a change of +0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 3.27 yuan/jin, a change of +0.16 yuan [3] - Inventory: On September 11, the national production - link inventory was 0.45 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 6.25%. The circulation - link inventory remained unchanged at 0.79 days [3] Market Analysis - High - temperature weather in mid - and early August led to frequent problems of egg storage deterioration, and all links were cautious in purchasing. In late August, downstream stocking drove up egg prices slightly. School demand recovered this month, but tourism and catering demand declined significantly. Food enterprise processing demand was strong in mid - and early September, but the peak production season of food enterprises ended near the Mid - Autumn Festival. Supermarkets and e - commerce still had some pre - festival promotion demand, and overall demand gradually declined over time [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Core Viewpoint - The pork price in September showed volatility, initially rising above 7 yuan but quickly falling again, leading to mixed market sentiments regarding supply and demand dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a significant debate in the market about the impact of capacity reduction on pork prices, with some believing that a deeper decline in prices is necessary for effective capacity reduction [4]. - Official targets indicate a need to reduce the breeding sow population by 1 million heads, with a long-term goal of reaching 39 million by the end of 2025, suggesting substantial pressure for capacity reduction in the coming months [4]. - Despite the current price dip below 7 yuan, leading pork companies remain profitable due to their scale advantages, which may weaken the motivation for further capacity reduction [4][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Factors - The upcoming peak consumption seasons, including Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, are expected to support pork prices, as demand typically increases during these periods [5][10]. - The recent price fluctuations are attributed more to market sentiment rather than fundamental supply-demand changes, with supply constraints and increased demand contributing to price stability [10]. - The market is anticipated to experience continued price fluctuations in September, with potential support as the peak consumption periods approach, indicating that the capacity reduction process may take longer [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in egg prices is driven by factors such as oversold market conditions, seasonal stocking demand, and the exit of short-sellers, despite ongoing supply pressures from the egg-laying hen industry [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of September 5, the main egg futures contract closed at 2964 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a nearly 2% increase from the low point on September 2 [1][2] - The average price of eggs in China's agricultural wholesale market was 7.73 yuan per kg on September 5, up 1.84% from 7.59 yuan per kg on September 2 [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The egg market is experiencing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with seasonal demand typically peaking in the third quarter, but this year has seen a lack of price increase during the traditional peak season [3][4] - The number of old hens being culled is expected to increase in September, as many producers plan to eliminate older hens ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [4][7] Profitability and Production Trends - The prolonged low prices of eggs have led to significant losses for egg producers, with losses nearing 0.30 yuan per kg during July and August [6] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards selective culling of hens due to poor profitability, with expectations that the overall production capacity will gradually decrease [6][7] Future Outlook - There is a potential for slight price increases in September due to pre-holiday stocking by food manufacturers and increased demand from school cafeterias [7] - However, the overall rebound in egg prices may be limited due to high production capacity, with average prices expected to remain below historical levels, fluctuating between 3.1 yuan and 3.2 yuan per jin [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the number of breeding sows in China is expected to continue increasing until at least September 2025, despite a projected decline in overall pig prices and profitability in the industry [1] Group 1: Breeding Sow Inventory - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of breeding sows in July decreased slightly to 40.42 million, a decline of 10,000 heads month-on-month [1] - Data from Yongyi Consulting shows that the breeding sow inventory in sample 1 increased by 0.14% month-on-month, while sample 2 saw a growth of 0.52% [2] - Mysteel's data indicates that the breeding sow inventory remained stable month-on-month, with a slight increase in large-scale farms and a minor decrease in smallholder farms [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average profit per pig sold in 2023 has been 108 yuan, with the industry maintaining profitability for 15 consecutive months [1] - In July, pig feed sales increased by 4.9%, indicating a rise in demand for feed despite fluctuating pig prices [2] - The overall pig market has seen a high-level retreat, but profits for large-scale farms remain, leading to limited willingness to reduce production capacity [3] Group 3: Industry Recommendations - Guolian Minsheng Securities recommends investing in leading breeding companies with significant cost advantages and high output realization rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - The report also suggests focusing on the post-cycle animal health and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Haida Group [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that pig prices will experience weak fluctuations in the second half of 2025, with a focus on observing the progress of capacity reduction [1] - The report recommends leading companies with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities, as well as those that can achieve growth through mergers and innovations [1] - The post-cycle prosperity is expected to continue, with a positive trend for major products in the seed industry and increasing market share for certain companies [1] Group 2 - In the pig farming industry, the report indicates that industry capacity will gradually increase in the first half of 2025, leading to a downward trend in pig prices, with an average industry price of 14.55 yuan/kg in Q2 2025, reflecting a 3.1% decrease quarter-on-quarter and an 11.2% decrease year-on-year [1] - Benefiting from lower feed prices and improved efficiency, most listed companies are expected to see a continued decline in costs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Following national capacity control policies, leading companies have begun to reduce the number of breeding sows and the weight of market pigs, with capital expenditures slowing down and debt ratios decreasing in Q2 [1] - Looking ahead, while supply pressure in the pig market remains, initial results from weight reduction efforts and the upcoming consumption peak suggest limited downward space for pig prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The report anticipates a gradual reduction in capacity and a stabilization of pig prices in the medium term, with a potential reshaping of industry valuation models [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different trading instruments are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, trading instruments are classified as bearish, oscillating, and bullish [6]. - A series of macro - economic events at home and abroad have an impact on the financial and commodity markets, and different trading strategies are proposed for various trading products in different sectors [8][13][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - China's Ministry of Commerce announced the first anti - circumvention investigation ruling, and the central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations. Two departments issued an action plan for the stable growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry. The real estate market in 28 cities has supply changes. The US - Japan trade agreement is implemented, and the US has a soaring trade deficit in July. The US Department of Justice investigated a Fed governor, and the ADP employment data in August was lower than expected [8][9][10] Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term may be mainly oscillating, and long - term consider buying on dips [13]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt a curve - steepening strategy, keep the idea of steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - and long - term, and participate in short - term rebounds with appropriate stop - loss and take - profit [14][15] Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The supply policy has limited impact on the market. The market may have a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season". Steel continues to have limited downward adjustment space and maintains an oscillating trend in the medium - term, while iron ore can be lightly short - sold [17][18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may continue to fall from high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to production progress and enterprise production conditions [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Consider buying silicon iron 10 contracts on dips, and maintain a medium - and long - term strategy of short - selling manganese silicon on rebounds [19]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash can be short - sold on rallies, and glass is recommended to be observed for the time being [20] Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum can be bought on dips, while alumina is recommended to be observed in the short - term and short - sold on rallies in the medium - term [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon's price is mainly affected by policy progress and is in a fierce game [24] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long - term [27]. - **Sugar**: Adopt a bearish strategy [29]. - **Eggs**: Temporarily treat it as a rebound and be cautious about the upside [32]. - **Apples**: Consider buying on dips or using a positive spread strategy [32]. - **Corn**: Short - sell the 01 contract [33]. - **Red Dates**: Short - sell on rallies [35]. - **Pigs**: Short - sell near - month contracts on rallies and consider low - buying the 01 contract in the medium - and long - term [36] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Consider short - selling on rallies [38]. - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the change of crude oil prices, and the short - term price range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [39]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins will oscillate weakly [41]. - **Rubber**: Consider buying on dips [42]. - **Methanol**: Temporarily reduce short positions [43]. - **Caustic Soda**: Adopt a bullish strategy [44]. - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil and is stronger than crude oil, and the short - term price range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [44]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Each variety in the polyester industry chain will mainly oscillate weakly in the short - term [46]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Adopt a bearish strategy in the long - term [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe whether the port destocking continues and the improvement of spot trading [47]. - **Logs**: Observe the market in the short - term [49]. - **Urea**: Adopt a bearish strategy [49]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [50]

Group 1: Swine Industry - In H1 2025, the swine industry experienced profitability, with a focus on capacity reduction in H2 [2] - The average price of pork in Q2 2025 was 14.55 yuan/kg, down 3.1% quarter-on-quarter and 11.2% year-on-year [2] - Major companies like DeKang Agriculture, Lihua Co., Shennong Group, and Wens Foodstuff reported net profits exceeding 200 yuan per head in H1 2025 [2] - The supply pressure in H2 remains, but initial results from weight reduction efforts and seasonal consumption may limit further price declines [2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - In H1 2025, the poultry industry faced low prices due to weak consumption and increased supply [3] - White feather chicken prices rebounded slightly in Q2 but still faced losses, while yellow chicken prices continued to decline [3] - The poultry industry is expected to see a price increase in H2 due to slight capacity reduction and seasonal demand [3] Group 3: Feed and Animal Health - The feed and animal health sectors are experiencing upward trends in H1 2025, driven by recovery in livestock and aquaculture stocks [4] - Sales, revenue, and profit growth accelerated in Q2 2025 [4] - Continued recovery in livestock stocks is anticipated, supporting recommendations for feed and animal health companies [4] Group 4: Seed Industry - The seed industry is facing significant pressure with a severe oversupply situation, leading to increased return rates [5] - Despite challenges, new leading companies are achieving substantial growth driven by successful products like Kangnong Yumi 8009 [5] Group 5: Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector is seeing a steady increase in brand market share, with exports expected to gradually recover [6] - Companies with Southeast Asia and global factory layouts are showing more stable growth [6] - Domestic demand remains resilient, with leading companies enhancing market share through supply chain advantages and brand strength [6] Group 6: Fruit Industry - The fruit industry is experiencing differentiation across various segments, with blueberries emerging as a new consumer favorite [7] - Companies are expanding production and improving efficiency, leading to steady growth [7] - The processing segment benefits from stable raw material prices and strong export demand, while retail faces challenges [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in national pork reserves and declining pig prices indicate a critical phase for the pork industry, with the government intervening to stabilize prices while promoting the transition to higher quality production capacity [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The national average price for frozen pork was auctioned at 19.90 to 20.00 yuan per kilogram, translating to a live pig price of approximately 13.6 to 13.8 yuan per kilogram, marking a potential bottom for current pig prices [1]. - The pig-to-grain ratio has fallen below the warning line of 6:1, indicating a concerning trend for the industry [1]. - The overall pig inventory as of mid-2025 was reported at 42.447 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while the total number of pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year was 36.619 million, up 0.6% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Production Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has mandated the elimination of inefficient sows and control over secondary fattening and slaughter weights to alleviate overcapacity in the industry [1]. - In July, the number of sows eliminated increased by 2.1% month-on-month, while the total breeding sow inventory decreased by 10,000 heads to 40.42 million heads [2]. - Major enterprises are leveraging technological and managerial advantages to accelerate capacity consolidation, while smaller farms are gradually exiting low-efficiency production under policy guidance [1][2]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The profitability of pig farming has been maintained for about a year and a half, with leading companies reducing costs to around 12 yuan per kilogram, while others hover around 13 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Companies are optimizing sow structures and improving production efficiency, which has become a significant barrier to capacity reduction due to sustained profit realization [3]. - The average weight of pigs at the end of August was reported at 127.83 kilograms, an increase of 1.1 kilograms year-on-year, indicating a trend towards heavier pigs in the market [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face increased supply pressure in the second half of the year, with a predicted rise in the number of market-ready pigs due to higher birth rates in April and May [4]. - Short-term price increases are anticipated due to seasonal factors and market sentiment, but the overall price increase potential remains limited [5]. - The market is likely to experience a demand lull post the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, which may suppress pig prices as supply recovers [5].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the potential for value reassessment of pig farming companies [2][5] - The agricultural sector has shown a mixed performance recently, with the overall index up by 2.02% week-on-week, while the pig farming segment has seen a notable increase of 4.39% [11][12] Livestock Farming Data Tracking - Pig prices have slightly declined this week due to sufficient supply and market sentiment being buoyed by government stockpiling efforts [7][16] - The number of breeding sows has shown a slight decrease, with July figures indicating a 0.02% month-on-month decline [20][22] - The average price for market pigs as of August 28 is 13.70 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.51% [30][36] - Profitability in pig farming remains positive for self-bred pigs, with a profit of 32.24 CNY per head, while purchased piglets show a loss of 148.41 CNY per head [38][41] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The price of white feathered chickens remains stable, with an average price of 7.33 CNY/kg as of August 29 [39][42] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks in Europe and the U.S. create uncertainty in the supply of breeding chickens, which may benefit the white feathered chicken industry [39][40] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by the recovery in livestock numbers and the introduction of new products [47] - Significant growth in the issuance of veterinary vaccine approvals has been noted, particularly for African swine fever vaccines, which may enhance market interest [47][51] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have decreased slightly, with wheat at 2429 CNY/ton, soybean meal at 3071 CNY/ton, and corn at 2365 CNY/ton as of August 29 [52][53] - The USDA's August report indicates a decrease in global corn stocks for the 2025/26 season compared to the previous year, while soybean stocks are also projected to decline [54][56] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports have seen a decline, with July figures showing a 3.0% year-on-year decrease, amounting to 930 million CNY [58][60] - Domestic sales in the pet food market continue to grow, with notable increases in sales for brands like Guai Bao and Pei Di [60][61] - The recent Asia Pet Expo showcased over 2600 exhibitors and more than 20000 brands, indicating a robust growth in the pet industry [61][62]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Bullish)**: None - **Sell (Bearish)**: None - **Neutral**: None - **One Star (Slightly Bullish/Bearish)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Three Stars**: None Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by policy, trade negotiations, and weather, with short - term focus on policy orientation and long - term supply concerns [2][3] - The palm oil and soybean oil markets are affected by biodiesel policies, and a "crushing for oil" pattern has emerged [3] - The rapeseed market is affected by production forecasts and import expectations, with rapeseed meal potentially rebounding and rapeseed oil remaining range - bound [6] - The corn market is affected by harvest expectations and trade sentiment, with a possible short - term rebound and long - term weakening [7] - The live hog market is under supply pressure and policy influence, with prices expected to remain weak [8] - The egg market shows signs of capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of the year [9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - The price of soybean No. 1 has stopped falling and rebounded, with the spread between domestic and imported soybeans widening. Policy - driven sales have increased supply pressure, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to soybean policies [2] - As of August 26, about 11% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. Global oil prices are rising due to biodiesel policies, which may boost soybean crushing. China may face a soybean supply gap in Q1 next year. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market may continue to be volatile in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term due to the "crushing for oil" pattern and potential supply gaps [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The markets are in a state of shock correction. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decrease in production and an increase in export demand in August. The Indonesian market has better supply - demand prospects. Mid - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and buying on dips can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal may stabilize and rebound slightly after a continuous decline. Rapeseed oil is difficult to break out of the narrow - range shock pattern. The expected production of Canadian rapeseed may exceed the current forecast, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Saskatchewan governor's visit to China [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The auction of imported corn had a low transaction rate. New - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. After the new - season corn starts to be priced in September, it may rebound briefly, but it will continue to be weak at the bottom in the long - term [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices remained stable. The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are expected to remain weak. Policy aims to promote capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices rebounded slightly at a low level, and spot prices fell significantly. The total futures positions have doubled in the past month. Attention should be paid to the seasonal rebound of egg prices. Signs of old - hen culling are emerging, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips can be considered [9]