Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].

2025年，我国生猪养殖行业在供需失衡、价格低迷和亏损扩大的困境中持续磨底。然而，政策引导与市 场力量正共同倒逼产能加速去化，行业格局面临深刻重塑，而生猪养殖企业也正面临行业周期底部和估 值底部的双重局面。 供给量总体维持高位 2025年，生猪供给量总体维持高位，加剧了市场供需矛盾。根据农业农村部数据，2025年前三季度全国 生猪出栏量达5.30亿头，同比小幅增长1.85%，处于近五年同期次高水平（仅低于2023年）。2025年三 季度末，全国生猪存栏43680万头，同比增加986万头，增长2.3%，环比增加1233万头，增长2.9%。 生猪产能高位震荡的核心在于能繁母猪存栏量仍高于合理水平。广发证券研报数据显示，截至2025年9 月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量为4035万头，较3900万头的合理保有量仍高出3.5%，供给压力尚未缓解。 供给过剩导致猪价全年震荡下行。申万宏源证券（000562）研报显示，本轮猪周期自2024年三季度见顶 后开始下行，2025年全年猪价震荡向下，猪价自年初的15元~16元/千克跌至四季度的11元~12元/千克左 右。 随着猪价跌破成本线，养殖行业转入亏损区间。申万宏源证券研报显示，本 ...

Economic News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for central enterprises to enhance budget management and cost control across all aspects of operations [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim for a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts for solar thermal power by 2030, with costs comparable to coal power [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed measures to promote the sale of existing homes and optimize affordable housing supply [2] - The General Administration of Customs conducted research on cutting-edge technology development and technology transfer [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has begun exporting self-produced goods with a value of 32,000 yuan, benefiting from over 12% cost savings [2] - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau announced a subsidy for pig income insurance, with the municipal government covering 50% of the premium [2] - The U.S. economy showed a revised annualized GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3, exceeding expectations [2] - Japan reported a leak of radioactive water from a new reactor, with ongoing investigations into external radiation exposure [2] - Brazil confirmed anti-dumping duties on automotive glass from China, with specific rates for Malaysian producers [2] - South Korea's BC Card completed a pilot project for stablecoin payments, allowing foreign users to pay local merchants [2] Company Insights - Haibo Technology plans to invest 2 billion yuan in a smart green energy storage factory, expected to be completed by December 2028 [6] - Zhenyu Technology's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement to invest at least 1 billion yuan in projects related to new energy vehicle components and humanoid robots [6] - Huaxin Cement's major shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 200 million to 400 million yuan within six months [6] - Biological Shares' major shareholder intends to increase its stake by 50 million to 100 million yuan over the next year [6] Industry Strategy Agriculture Sector - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines for the agriculture sector in 2026, with an emphasis on pig farming, feed, and pet food [7][9][10] - The pig farming industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on cost management as a key factor for long-term growth [7] - The report highlights the potential for leading companies like Muyuan Foods to benefit from improved valuations and market conditions [8] Feed and Veterinary Medicine - The veterinary medicine sector is shifting towards innovation, with companies that prioritize R&D expected to thrive [9] - The feed industry is anticipated to see stable demand supported by high livestock inventory, with leading companies likely to gain market share [9] Pet Food Market - The domestic pet food market is projected to grow, with local brands gaining market share despite tariff disruptions [10][11]

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：11 月猪价降幅收 窄，出栏量下行 2025 年 12 月 24 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：11 月生猪均价持续下行，环比降幅收窄。农业农村部监测数 据显示，2025 年 11 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 24.25 元/公斤、12.55 元 /公斤和 23.05 元/公斤，环比变化分别为-5.99%、-0.20%和-1.54%。猪价在 11 月延续了下行趋势，但环比降幅有所收窄。12 月猪价窄幅震荡，截至 12 月 10 日，全国外三元生猪均价 11.30 元/公斤。 供应端：11 月养殖端出栏积极，竞争激烈，规模企业出栏压力大，月度计划完 成度一般，中小养殖户和二育群体认卖出栏，整体供应宽松。需求端：季节性 提振效果有限，鲜销走货不畅，屠宰企业存在被迫入库情况，主动补库需求不 足。需求端缺乏有力支撑，11 月生猪屠宰开工率环比下降 0.30 个百分点至 34.12%。由于上市节奏加快，11 月行业出栏体重略有下滑。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，9 月末能繁母猪存栏量 4035 万头，环 比下降 0.07%，相比二季度末 ...

Core Insights - The swine industry is entering a "cost competition new pattern," with policy adjustments leading to weak cycles and strong differentiation, resulting in overall micro-profitability in 2025, favoring leading enterprises [4][5] - The beef industry is experiencing a significant supply reduction, creating a large cycle, with domestic beef farming being highly fragmented and facing substantial overcapacity risks due to prolonged losses [4][5] - The edible fungus sector is seeing a rational return of industry capacity, with leading companies solidifying their market positions, particularly in the artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis [4][5] Swine Industry - The breeding sector is characterized by a new cost competition landscape, with the overall industry expected to be micro-profitable in 2025, while leading companies maintain strong profitability [4] - The number of breeding sows is at a reasonable high level, with policies guiding reductions, leading to weaker price fluctuations [4] - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and Lihua Agricultural (立华股份) [4] Beef Industry - The beef industry is undergoing deep supply clearance, with significant fragmentation in domestic beef farming, where over 90% of farmers have fewer than 10 cattle [4] - In 2024, beef prices hit a five-year low, with losses exceeding 1,600 yuan per head for eight consecutive months, accelerating the elimination of breeding cows [4] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy (优然牧业) and Fucheng Co., Ltd. (福成股份) [4] Edible Fungus Sector - The industry is rationally returning to capacity, with leading companies consolidating their market positions [4] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis is entering a performance release period, opening a second growth curve [4] Supply Dynamics in Swine Industry - The supply dynamics of breeding sows are changing in three phases: expansion, stabilization, and reduction, with a notable decrease in sow inventory expected in the latter half of 2025 [15][19] - The feed consumption trends indicate a correlation with sow inventory changes, with feed sales peaking in September 2025 [17] - The profitability of self-breeding operations remains positive despite recent price declines, but losses have begun to emerge as prices drop below 14 yuan per kilogram [20] Cost Trends - The overall trend in breeding costs is declining, supported by lower corn and soybean meal prices, with costs for large-scale and purchased pig farming at 12.40 yuan/kg and 13.31 yuan/kg respectively [34] - The pig-to-grain price ratio has dropped significantly, indicating worsening profitability for farmers [36] Market Opportunities - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a catalyst for market opportunities, with government efforts to guide production capacity adjustments and improve product quality [58] - The current valuation of the swine breeding sector is at historical lows, with potential for profit recovery as supply reduces and prices stabilize [60] Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for the swine industry is shaped by supply-side reforms and capacity reductions, with a strong expectation for capacity restructuring [64] - The policy environment is focused on reducing inefficient production capacity, enhancing the competitive position of leading companies [64]

| 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2969.78 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2367.56 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 近期研究报告 发布时间：2025-12-23 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 猪价低位窄幅震荡，供给压力仍大 ⚫ 行情回顾：小幅上涨 ⚫ 猪：价格低位窄幅震荡，供给压力仍大 上周猪价继续在 11 元/kg 区间窄幅波动，全周均价 11.25 元/公 斤，较前一周小涨 2.05%。寒潮、腌腊等支撑猪价；但供应端压力暂 难缓解。半年前的仔猪供应增加，意味当前生猪出栏将继续增加。 供给压力仍大，产能去化还将持续。24 年 5 月至 25 年 4 月母猪 存栏增加，对应着 25 年 Q4 及 26 年 Q1 生猪供给继续增加。目前行业 已全面亏损，且猪价或尚未触底，亏损预期还在继续强化。另 10 月 农业部能繁母猪存栏虽超预期下降，但距离 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall market, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long - term, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy [4]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, precious metals are expected to show strong performance; some metals like copper and aluminum have certain price support but also face resistance; and some agricultural products like sugar are expected to be bearish in the long - term but with short - term uncertainties [7][11][86]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Li Qiang plans major projects; the Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products; spot gold hits $4400/oz, up nearly 68% this year; Goldman Sachs expects a bull market in Chinese stocks next year, with corporate earnings potentially growing 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, and the stock market may rise 38% by the end of 2027 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces uncertainty. But in the long - run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different declines; the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged; the central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong; there was a net withdrawal of 6.36 billion yuan in liquidity on Monday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unchanged LPR is in line with expectations. The economy has stable production but weak service and demand. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.60%, silver rose 2.30%; COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices; the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan's policy statement affected the market [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The release of overseas central bank policy risks boosts market sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The unchanged LPR and strong precious metals prices pushed copper prices up. LME inventory decreased, and domestic inventories and premiums had corresponding changes [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose policy and strong precious metals support copper prices. But there is resistance due to the higher - than - expected 2026 copper concentrate processing fee and weak November consumption. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic aluminum inventories increased, and prices oscillated down. LME inventory was flat, and premiums had corresponding changes [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is relatively low, and there is support from overseas supply disruptions and the precious metals market. But there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and rise [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also had a price increase. There were corresponding changes in inventories, premiums, and other indicators [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term but may rise in the short - term due to macro - sentiment [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. There were changes in inventories, premiums, and other aspects [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic lead supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded sharply. Spot premiums and cost - end prices had corresponding changes [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure is still large, but the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin main contract price declined. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index and futures contract price of carbonate lithium increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the bullish trend is not over. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined, and there were changes in positions and premiums [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina is hard to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose, and there were changes in positions and spot prices [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore production target affects the market. The actual spot trading is light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and prices [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and there are supply disruptions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market oscillates. The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The winter storage willingness is not strong [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. There were changes in positions and spot prices [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand for iron water declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda ash main contract price also declined, and the inventory increased [32][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash demand is weak, and it is advisable to short - sell [33][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. There were changes in spot prices and premiums [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market macro - sentiment is stable. The future market is affected by the black market trend, cost, and supply. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price declined. The polysilicon main contract price also declined. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply may decrease, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate [41][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. The tire enterprise operating rates and inventories had corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hedge partially [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures prices increased. The European ARA refined oil inventories had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of methanol had corresponding changes [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of urea had corresponding changes [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. There were changes in premiums, inventories, and operating rates [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, costs, operating rates, and inventories [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price declined. There were changes in supply, demand, inventories, and profits [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and processing fees [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance, and the demand will decline. It is advisable to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and valuations [66][67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is advisable to go long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory pressure is high. The market may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog prices fluctuated. The demand after the Winter Solstice decreased but still supported the price [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has decreased marginally, but the supply is large. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was normal, and the market trading was tepid [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to squeeze the premium. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price increased. The domestic soybean meal price increased, and there were changes in inventories and压榨量 [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data had different changes. The domestic oil prices rebounded [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply is large in the short - term but may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions had corresponding changes. The import and production data of different countries had different changes [83][84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. It is advisable to be bearish in the long - term but wait and see in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased. The spot price increased, and there were changes in import, inventory, and operating rate data [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is not bad after the peak season. The price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [89].

农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 22 日 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 猪价低迷产能调减加速，关注上市公司冬虫夏草业务布局 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.15-2025.12.21） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：生猪、肉鸡价格持续低迷；宠物食品自主品牌销售不及预期；养殖疫情爆发。 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 投资分析意见：养殖延续亏损，产能加速去化，重点推荐左侧布局生猪养殖板块。猪 价底部震荡，养殖持续亏损。11 月能繁母猪存栏有所减少，行业产能加速去化正实质性发 生，推荐关注板块左侧投资机会。此外，宠物板块经历前期较为充分 ...

伴随气温下降及元旦、春节备货启动，牛羊肉消费旺季来临。山东省畜牧总站最新发布的数据显示，本 周全省牛羊肉量价齐升，其中，牛肉市场交易量同比升高9.47%，均价为65.61元/公斤，同比升高 14.68% ；羊肉市场交易量同比升高8.18%，均价75.03元/公斤，同比升高3.33%。此外，全省猪肉均价 为21.67元/公斤，同比降低22.50%，环比回落0.64%。活猪和猪肉价格跌幅收窄，后市有望触底回升。 据监测，本周全省牛肉均价为65.61元/公斤，环比回升0.32%。随着气温走低，牛肉消费进入旺季，市 场需求向好，价格回暖，但受进口压力影响，回升空间有限。 羊肉价格小幅升高。本周，羊肉均价75.03元/公斤，环比升高0.52%。当前羊肉价格震荡回升，主要是 供求关系阶段性市场供需调整。一方面气温走低，羊肉消费进入冬春旺季；另一方面肉羊出栏逐步收 窄，市场供给有所减少。 据全国畜禽屠宰行业管理系统周报数据显示，本周全省羊屠宰量环比减少1.25%，平均收购价格环比增 长0.15%。尤其是进口羊肉逐步回落，利好国内价格。2025年1—10月，我国累计进口羊肉29.38万吨， 同比减少2.20%，其中10月份进 ...

风险提示：以上产品由基金管理人发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投 资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件，了解基金 的风险收益特征，选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金投 资须谨慎！销售机构（包括基金管理人直销机构和其他销售机构）根据相关法律法规对本基金进行风险 评价，投资者应及时关注基金管理人出具的适当性意见，各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致，且 基金销售机构所出具的基金产品风险等级评价结果不得低于基金管理人作出的风险等级评价结果。基金 合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收 益情况，结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎选择基金产品并自行承担风险。中国 证监会对上述基金的注册，并不表明其对上述基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益做出实质性判断或保 证。基金投资须谨慎。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 太平洋证券指出，养猪行业产能去化动力持续增强，去化速度或加快。截至10月末，全国能繁母猪存栏 3990万头，较上月末少45万头。行业连续 ...