Group 1 - The decline in raw material prices is expected to enhance the company's profitability, with soda ash prices dropping 13.8% since the beginning of the year and energy prices weakening, leading to a decrease in downstream chemical product prices [1] - The company's main raw material costs are projected to decrease in the second half of 2024, with average procurement prices for soda ash, ethylene tar, anthracene oil, and coal tar dropping by 21.3%, 11.5%, 7.0%, and 11.5% respectively [1] - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 19.2% in 2024, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to 2023, driven by lower raw material costs [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a 50,000-ton nano carbon material project set to start production in June 2024 and a silica capacity increase of 30,000 tons expected in November 2024 [2] - The production and sales volume of carbon black and silica are projected to increase significantly in 2024, with carbon black production and sales rising by 25.6% and 20.9% respectively, and silica production and sales increasing by 27.7% and 26.5% [2] - The company is also progressing with the second phase of its nano carbon material project, which is expected to contribute to incremental performance [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 2.72 billion, 3.23 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 19.9%, 18.8%, and 21.6% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 360 million, 450 million, and 600 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 26.9%, and 32.1% [3] - Based on the closing price on May 21, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 13, 10, and 8 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，出现抢时间窗口出口现象，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价 格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，随着关税调整，外贸企业赶 工潮出现。当前LL交割品现货价7440（+0），基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差218，升贴水比例3.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-5.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - After the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP rise and then fall back. There is still pressure at the upper gap. The spot market atmosphere warms up, but the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of downstream product factory orders remains to be seen. Polyolefins mainly digest the previous gains [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (- 0.37%), with a trading volume of 320,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 4,002 to 514,088 lots. The main PP contract 09 closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.62%, with positions decreasing by 4,841 lots to 414,800 lots [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream petrochemical plants have intensive maintenance, resulting in short - term supply - side pressure, and the maintenance loss is at a high level compared to the same period. From May to June, PE plans to add 700,000 tons of new production capacity, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. There is no PP production plan in May, and in June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the 500,000 - ton/year Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plant [6] - **Demand Side**: The demand for agricultural films changes from peak to off - peak. The operating loads of packaging, film, and injection molding industries have declined month - on - month. All indicators in the PP downstream areas are weaker than the same period last year. Enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have gradually resumed operation this week, and the phenomenon of rush - exporting within the 90 - day buffer period may drive demand improvement [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On May 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous working day, a growth rate of 5.73%. The inventory at the same time last year was 920,000 tons [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices slightly adjusted down by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weakening of PP futures dragged down the spot market atmosphere. Traders actively sold goods, and some offers were slightly loosened to promote transactions, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories was not high [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices continued to show a mixed trend, with some prices falling. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [7][8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，出现抢时间窗口出口现象，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价 格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，随着关税调整，外贸企业赶 工潮出现。当前LL交割品现货价7440（+40），基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差204，升贴水比例2.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-5.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: May 19, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the long - term. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. For LLDPE, it's the off - season for agricultural film, while for PP, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventories of both are neutral, and it is expected that the prices of PE and PP will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Tariff games are the key factor. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - export phenomenon. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. It's the off - season for agricultural film, but there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7400 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 102, with a premium ratio of 1.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (- 5.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launch and weak crude oil [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs declined. Tariff games are crucial. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - export phenomenon. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 189, with a premium ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (- 7.2), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include weak crude oil [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a 1.4% increase in 2024 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has also been rising, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [15].

Core Viewpoint - Huafeng Chemical's profitability continues to decline, and its attempt to expand through acquisitions has failed [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Attempt - Huafeng Chemical announced the termination of its plan to acquire 100% of Huafeng Synthetic Resin and Huafeng Thermoplastic Polyurethane due to lack of shareholder approval [2][3] - The total consideration for the failed transaction was 6 billion yuan in cash and 54 billion yuan in shares, with a proposed issuance of 879 million shares [2] - The valuation of Huafeng Synthetic Resin showed a 506.96% increase, while Huafeng Thermoplastic had a 478.49% increase compared to their book values [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Huafeng Chemical's revenue was 258.84 billion yuan, 262.98 billion yuan, and 269.31 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.75%, 1.60%, and 2.41% respectively [6] - Net profit for the same period was 28.44 billion yuan, 24.78 billion yuan, and 22.20 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 64.17%, 12.85%, and 10.43% respectively [6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 63.14 billion yuan, down 5.15% year-on-year, and net profit of 5.04 billion yuan, down 26.21% [8] Group 3: Industry Context - The spandex industry has transitioned from a peak to a cyclical low, facing oversupply and declining raw material prices, leading to continuous price drops [8][9] - The average price of domestic spandex 40D in 2024 was 26,417.21 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 17.11% [9] - Despite the challenges, Huafeng Chemical plans to continue expanding its production capacity, with an additional 150,000 tons of spandex expected to be gradually put into production starting in 2025 [9]

Group 1 - The main plastic futures contract experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7339.00 yuan, with a closing price of 7339.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.66% [1] - Zhonghui Futures suggests a bearish outlook for plastic, citing an increase in supply with 2.08 million tons of new capacity from companies like Wanhua and the startup of Shandong New Era's facility [2] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the short-term trend for plastic will continue to rebound and repair prices, supported by a recent rebound in international crude oil prices [3] Group 2 - The demand side shows a decline in agricultural film operating rates for four consecutive weeks, indicating weak demand [2] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive due to the recent consensus reached during the China-US meeting, which may support plastic prices [3] - The recommendation from Zhonghui Futures is to gradually take profits on long positions and avoid chasing higher prices, while monitoring the price trends of crude oil and coal [2]

事件 Q1 营收稳步增长，期间费用影响利润表现。Q1 公司实现营业收入1.39亿元，同比增长13.90%，归母净 利润108.21 万元，同比下降69.50%，毛利率为24.24%，同比提升2.67pct，净利率为-0.55%，同比下滑 2.92pct。 我们认为Q1 毛利率提升的主要原因是公司基本完成了车间的生产正常化同时毛利率较高的产品销售占 比提升；净利率同比下滑的主要原因是：①子公司华海共同研发投入增多，研发费用同比增加439.10 万 元；②募投项目转固后可转债利息停止资本化导致利息费用增加，财务费用同比增加748.60 万元。 产能大规模投放，有望助力营收快速增长。截至2025 年3 月底，公司固定资产合计为11.30 亿元，相较 2024 年同期增加了9.27 亿元，总规模扩大约5 倍，募投项目"黄体酮及中间体BA 生产建设项目"正式投 产，同时加强华海共同原料药项目和甾体类产业链升级项目的建设，目前已经完成了主体工程的建设， 其中华海共同原料药项目一期工程完成设备调试并启动试生产，二期规划聚焦高端皮质激素原料药产能 储备。 积极开展股份回购，彰显长期发展信心。公司拟使用自有资金及股票回购专项贷 ...

大宗系列|化工：大投产后聚酯产业链表 现分化，PTA 供需压力大 专题报告 2025 年 2 月 26 日 主要内容： 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 研究发展部 翁欣 wengx@cspengyuan.com 2024 年对聚酯产业链而言，是充满挑战的一年。自 2021 年以来，波澜壮阔的 投产周期逐渐走向尾声，上下游各环节均从新增产能的投放转向存量产能的再 平衡，行业调整的步伐将加快。从价格走势来看，各品种整体波动率有所下降， 然而上下游、品种间出现了明显的分化。在上半年原油价格波动有限，需求保 持平稳的情况下，以 PX、PTA 为代表的上游品种效益相对稳定。下半年，随着 海外原油、汽油价格的走弱，成本端快速下降，加上内需没有出现超预期的表 现，PX、PTA 价格随之大幅下跌；乙二醇在 2024 年迎来了供需格局的边际改 善， PX 产量增长，对外依存度下降，供需压力偏大。2025 年 PX 投产放缓，供需寻 求平衡。PX 仍旧处在投产真空期，另外 2024 年 PX 行业产能率已经提升至较高 水平（86%），考虑到目前行业的低利润格局以及年内会有常规的检修损失量， 因此预计 2025 年 PX 的供应增量 ...