Group 1 - The core argument highlights the significant risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds as the 30-year yield surpasses 5%, leading to a decline in confidence in U.S. debt securities [2][5] - Major Japanese insurance companies reported a total floating loss of approximately $60 billion in domestic bond holdings due to rising interest rates, indicating the financial strain on institutions heavily invested in U.S. Treasuries [2][5] - The report suggests that the U.S. debt market is approaching a critical point, with a potential collapse predicted for 2025, supported by alarming statistics such as a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123% and a single-day stock market loss of 5% [5] Group 2 - International investment firms are actively seeking safe-haven assets to mitigate losses from U.S. dollar and Treasury volatility, with Goldman Sachs identifying China as a secure refuge [7] - The recent threat of tariffs by Trump has led to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, reflecting a broader capital flight from U.S. debt markets [10] - There has been a dramatic increase in gold deliveries on the New York exchange, with May 2023 showing a staggering 700% rise compared to the same month in the previous year, indicating a shift towards gold as a protective asset [10][11] Group 3 - China's central bank is strategically increasing its gold reserves to create a buffer against U.S. debt challenges, holding 73.77 million ounces of gold [12] - The Chinese government aims to maintain a stable yuan exchange rate to support its manufacturing sector, recognizing the importance of currency stability for economic health [14][16] - International investment firms have set a target exchange rate of around 7 for the yuan, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook on China's economic prospects [16]

人民币的持续升值成为资本市场的热点。分析人士认为，人民币本轮升值既有美元走弱的外部因素，也 有人民币市场投资者预期扭转的内在因素。 从对权益市场和债市的影响来看，闾振兴表示，人民币升值增强了投资者对中国经济的信心，经济基本 面预期改善必然会对股市形成利多效应。同时，也会吸引国际资本逐步增配人民币资产。显然，A股是 受益较大的标的之一。人民币升值也会缓解资金外流压力。相对地，央行货币政策的实施将更自由、更 灵活，有利于更好地维持低利率环境，助力经济复苏。 朱冠华也表示，人民币升值对包括股市、债市等金融资产在内的人民币计价资产都将形成利多。从资产 收益的角度分析，人民币升值将提升人民币资产的价值、产生资产增值收益，对外资而言也将带来结售 汇方面的汇差收益。从风险溢价的角度分析，美债、法债、日债等国际资产今年以来风险明显提升，美 元也存在走弱风险，这对美元资产的安全性形成挑战。与之相对，我国维护金融市场稳定的坚定立场， 以及应对关税摩擦的成功经验，将使中国资产拥有更低波动率，并成为全球资本的"避风港"。 "更为严重的是，经过上周美国对欧盟产品征税的各种操作，中美日内瓦联合宣言带来的乐观情绪发生 变化，市场情绪趋于谨 ...

Group 1 - Japan is experiencing high domestic inflation, with rice prices reportedly doubling, which limits the government's ability to issue more money [2] - The latest data shows that four major Japanese life insurance companies have reported a total floating loss of approximately $60 billion in domestic bond holdings due to rising bond yields [2] - There is a risk of a vicious cycle if Japanese life insurance companies start selling off their bonds, leading to further declines in bond prices [4] Group 2 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is expected to reduce long-term bond issuance, although the total amount remains unchanged, shifting from long-term to short-term bonds [4] - The recent performance divergence between Hong Kong and A-share markets indicates that foreign capital is playing a significant role, with predictions that a 1% rise in RMB could lead to a 3% increase in A-shares [6] - The RMB has appreciated slightly against other major currencies, but this is seen as a controlled move to avoid aiding U.S. inflation reduction [8] Group 3 - The difference in stock performance during market rallies can be attributed to institutional investors' choices, highlighting the importance of understanding institutional behavior in stock selection [10] - The "institutional inventory" data reflects the trading willingness of institutional funds, indicating that active participation can lead to better investment outcomes [12] - Current market conditions are challenging, with both opportunities and risks present, necessitating careful analysis of institutional preferences to avoid pitfalls [14]

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2]. Market Data Summary Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes - Gold closed at 780.10 with a 3.76% weekly increase [2]. - Silver closed at 8263.00 with a 2.00% weekly increase [2]. - Other commodities like corn, copper, and glass had varying degrees of price changes, with some increasing and others decreasing [2]. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index and other indexes also had corresponding price changes, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.38% - 1.10% [2]. Bond and Exchange Rates - Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.61%, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose by 1.79% [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: RMB appreciation, capital inflow, net financing purchase, potential monetary policies, and policy support for the stock market [4]. - Bearish logics: Global debt issues, ineffective industrial policies, slow economic improvement, and low market trading volume [4]. Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, all 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: Low possibility of tightened liquidity, declining interest rates, policy constraints on market rates, and weak real - economy financing demand [4]. - Bearish logics: Unlikely further interest - rate cuts, upcoming special treasury bond supply, rising risk appetite, and expected policy - driven inflation and growth [4]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Rebound in transportation data, decline in US active oil rigs, high gold - oil ratio, and lack of clear OPEC production increase data [5]. - Bearish logics: Approaching US debt crisis, rumored OPEC+ production increase, inventory accumulation, easing US - Iran relations, poor US debt auction, and tariff threats [5]. Agricultural Sector Palm Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, limited production increase in May, high Indian imports, and decreasing domestic inventory [5]. - Bearish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil production, excessive domestic purchases, higher - than - expected production data, seasonal production increase, and potential reduction in biodiesel demand [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Tariff - buffer - driven exports, improvement in US manufacturing PMI, inventory reduction, and continuous decline in social inventory [6]. - Bearish logics: Low downstream processing profits, post - tariff - window demand pressure, potential decline in photovoltaic demand, and high valuation [6]. Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Improved regional sales, reduced inventory, potential policy support, and technical support at the current price [6]. - Bearish logics: Price cuts for inventory reduction, high daily melting volume, approaching traditional off - season, and weak real - estate demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Global bond market volatility, Chinese reduction of US debt, trade risks, and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Bearish logics: Market pricing of US fiscal bill impact, potential limited impact of tariff threats, possible decline in gold's relative attractiveness, and overbought technical signals [7]. Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Coal mine maintenance, high steel - mill profits, strong basis after price decline, and weak coking - enterprise production - cut incentives [7]. - Bearish logics: High mine inventory, declining iron - water production, high auction failure rate, shrinking coking profits, and high port clearance volume [7].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has recently appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.17 mark, with a low of 7.16, and closing at 7.1782 on May 26 [1] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 12-month USD/RMB target to 7.0, indicating a potential 3% foreign exchange gain for the RMB in the next year [1][4] - Historically, when the RMB appreciates, the Chinese stock market tends to perform well, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary, real estate, and diversified financials [1][4][5] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, with the RMB center rate falling below 7.2 for the first time since April [1][8] - Despite the recent gains, there are concerns about the sustainability of the RMB's appreciation due to ongoing uncertainties in trade negotiations and macroeconomic conditions [8][9] - Companies that may benefit from RMB appreciation include those with a market capitalization over $2 billion and significant exposure to USD costs, such as airlines and food sectors [6] Group 3 - Conversely, companies that may be adversely affected by RMB appreciation are those with over 30% of their revenue from overseas and low USD debt exposure [7] - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on export conditions and the behavior of exporters regarding currency conversion [9][10] - The potential for further RMB appreciation is limited, as the central bank has not shown intentions to significantly push for a stronger RMB [9][10]

5月27日，三大指数低开盘中震荡弱势，中证全指证券公司指数(399975.SZ)下跌0.07%，该指数成分股 中，国联民生上涨超1%，国信证券上涨0.63%，光大证券上涨0.5%，中信建投上涨0.31%。 相关ETF方面，深市规模最大的证券ETF（159841）盘中震荡一度飘红，现小幅下跌0.11%，溢价率为 0.05%。资金流向方面，该ETF上个交易日(5月26日)净流入额为623.45万元，截至上个交易日，已连续6 个交易日获资金净流入，累计净流入额为1.19亿元。该ETF最新流通份额为63.86亿份，最新流通规模为 60.36亿元。 证券ETF（159841）密切跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，该指数聚焦了A股的大市值证券龙头，而且既有 传统证券龙头，也有金融科技龙头性。证券ETF（159841）同时配置场外证券ETF联接基金（A： 008590，C：008591）。 消息面上，5月26日，离岸人民币对美元一度升破7.17，最低至7.16，创半年以来新高。5月27日，人民 币对美元中间价报7.1876，下调43点。截至发稿，人民币对美元回落至7.1888，离岸人民币对美元回落 至7.1823。 （本文机构观点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the RMB/USD exchange rate will reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in three, six, and twelve months respectively, indicating a potential appreciation of 3% over the next twelve months [1] Group 1: Companies Likely to Benefit from RMB Appreciation - The list of Hong Kong-listed companies that may benefit from RMB appreciation includes: GDS Holdings Limited (09698), Zijin Mining Group (02899), China Jinmao Holdings Group (00817), Dongyue Group (00189), China Southern Airlines (01055), Baidu Group (09888), China Feihe (06186), and Tencent Holdings (00700) [1] - Criteria for selection include: 1) Market capitalization over $2 billion and average daily trading volume (ADVT) exceeding $5 million 2) Industries reliant on USD imports, such as aviation, petrochemicals, construction, staple foods, and tourism, or having over 20% of debt in USD 3) Overseas revenue exposure below 30% 4) No foreign exchange gains during the RMB depreciation period in 2024 5) Low correlation of returns with exchange rate fluctuations [1] Group 2: Companies Likely to Underperform in RMB Appreciation - The list of Hong Kong-listed companies that may underperform during RMB appreciation includes: Haier Smart Home (06690), PetroChina Company Limited (00857), WuXi AppTec (03933), ASMPT Limited (00522), Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (00551), Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (03808), Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited (02313), and Minth Group Limited (00425) [2] - Criteria for selection include: 1) Market capitalization over $2 billion and average daily trading volume exceeding $5 million 2) Overseas revenue exposure exceeding 30% 3) USD debt level below 5% 4) No foreign exchange losses during the RMB depreciation period in 2024 5) High correlation of returns with exchange rate fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by 3%, driven by improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that under a strong currency, sectors such as non-essential consumer goods, real estate, and brokerage stocks typically perform well [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a rebound in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) in the coming months due to the absorption of excess liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as recent domestic data has improved, alleviating some previous concerns [2] - MUFG analysts expect the Japanese yen to remain supported by the potential for further interest rate hikes later this year, despite low expectations from the market [2] - Allianz Group expresses concerns that the U.S. may lose its status as a "reliable investment destination" due to legislative changes affecting clean energy investments [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the yield on China's 10-year government bonds may drop to between 1.4% and 1.5% in the coming months due to stronger demand for fixed-income assets [4] - Everbright Securities reports that China's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to gradually recover, driven by export demand [4] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the technology growth style is favored, recommending investments in sectors such as robotics and artificial intelligence [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to move away from "interest dependency" as interest rates continue to decline, suggesting a shift towards diversified asset allocation [5] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the AI computing power sector, driven by advancements in AI models [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the pricing power of core assets is gradually shifting southward, with an increase in IPOs from quality companies in Hong Kong [7] Group 5 - CITIC Securities indicates that the valuation of the brokerage sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by favorable liquidity and financial policies [9] - Galaxy Securities observes rapid rotation in market trends, suggesting a cautious approach while focusing on structural investment opportunities [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan reports significant growth potential in Xinjiang's power supply and demand, with expectations for substantial increases in renewable energy generation [11]

华尔街聚焦"人民币升值"主题 关税大战并未在今年推动美元升值，相反美元资产遭到抛售，关税或冲击美国通胀、加剧债务负担，同时也在侵蚀各界对美元信用的信心。与此同时，德国 罕见开始转向财政扩张，推动欧元对美元一度攀升10%，日元也在日本央行加息预期下升值，这也导致美元指数今年累计下跌近10%。 与2018年3月至2020年1月的中美贸易战1.0不同，当时人民币对美元汇率从6.26的低点升至7.18的高点（即贬值13%），而自 "对等关税"实施以来，人民币对 美元汇率已升值1%。然而，人民币的涨势普遍落后于欧元和一众亚洲货币。 不过，近期华尔街的唱多力量也开始渐强。例如，高盛预计未来3个月、6个月和12个月的汇率将从之前的7.3、7.35和7.35分别调整至7.2、7.1和7。这意味着 未来12个月人民币汇率将上涨3%。该机构最新认为，汇率升值将有望利多相关股票。 5月26日，离岸人民币一度对美元升破7.17，最低至7.16。 5月26日，离岸人民币一度对美元升破7.17，最低至7.16，截至同日19:00报7.1782。今年以来亚洲货币和欧元多数对美元升值5%~10%，而人民币从年初到5 月初的涨幅不到2%，近期 ...

高盛认为，人民币汇率升值将带动中国股市上涨，每1%升值可推动股市上涨3%。在人民币走强的情况下，非必需消费品、房地产和券商股将表现优异。 在出口方面，中国对美国的直接贸易和收入敞口在过去十年中有所下降，美国市场在2024年约占中国出口的15%和上市公司收入的1.2%，而2017年分别为 19%和1.6%。 高盛外汇团队最近下调了美元兑人民币预测（意味着人民币升值），预期汇率将在3个月、6个月和12个月内分别达到7.20、7.10和7.00， 这意味着未来12个 月内将有3%的升值。 商务部官方消息，此前中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方 暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 据追风交易台信息，高盛在5月26日的报告中表示，本轮中美贸易冲突期间，人民币显示出极强的韧性，与2018年3月至2020年1月期间人民币兑美元贬值13% 不同，自4月2日以来，人民币兑美元升值了1%。 替代政策工具是更优解 对于本轮人民币保存韧性的原因，常见的解释包括： 央行的货币管理、中国出口部门相比2017年竞争力和多 ...