虽然我个人一直觉得汇率的走势最好是应该加大双向波动的幅度，这样可以提升资金外流的风险成本。因为过去人民币兑美元持续的贬值，导致大量的资 金认为汇率风险非常小，所以说有很多资金流出，去追逐美元的高利率收益。这对于我们的金融安全来说，其实是不利的。 所以这一轮持续的升值，其实也没有出现任何的回调，而是一路小跑，这也算是风险对等了。这一轮升值虽然慢，但是累积的升值幅度其实也不算少。从 去年11月份开启升值，到现在，升值的幅度已经达到了5%。 目前美元的基准利率大约是在3.5%，我们的基准利率大概是在1% 左右，中美之间的名义利差只有2.5% 左右。现在这三个多月的升值幅度就超过了5%， 很明显，对于资金博取美元的高利率收益是一个非常大的打击，至少从现在的名义收益来看，是亏损的。如果人民币升值继续下去，这个亏损会更大。 实际上最近这三个月以来，美元指数其实总体保持了稳定，基本上就是在97左右震荡。 最近人民币升值趋势有点加速的意思。这一轮人民币的升值，差不多是从去年11月份开始，从7.1附近开始小幅快跑，连续升值突破了整数关口7，又突破 了6.9，最新已经突破了6.85。 最近这两个月，日元汇率出现了一轮比较明显的高 ...

从积极影响来看，人民币升值首先反映出国际资本对于中国经济的信心正在提升。特别是在科技创新领 域，中国在人形机器人、芯片半导体以及大模型等方向不断取得突破，增强了全球资本对中国资产的认 可度。与此同时，人民币升值有望吸引更多外资流入A股与港股市场，提振了A股和港股市场的表现。 历史经验来看，汇率升值阶段往往伴随着股票市场表现走强，这对于当前资本市场形成了正向支撑。 当然，从不利角度看，人民币升值会对出口企业形成一定压力，因为汇率走强会抬高出口产品价格，可 能削弱出口竞争力，对部分以出口为主的企业带来挑战。 从原因来看，第一是美元指数走弱。当前美联储仍处于降息周期，美国国内对于美联储主席鲍威尔的调 查，可能会影响到美联储货币政策的独立性。与此同时，新提名的美联储主席沃什预计在5月份上任 后，在下半年实施两次以上降息，这使得美元指数回落，从而支撑人民币升值。 第二是中美经贸关系趋于稳定，整体外贸环境有所改善。同时，国内稳增长政策逐步落地并显现效果， 增强了全球资本对于中国经济前景的信心，也提升了人民币资产的吸引力。在人民币持续升值过程中， 之前囤积的企业结汇需求明显增加。此前持有较多美元资产的企业开始加速结汇，提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, breaking the 6.83 mark, is attributed to a combination of factors including shifts in monetary policy, economic recovery in China, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [1][20]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movement - On February 26, 2026, both onshore and offshore RMB broke the critical 6.83 level against the US dollar, with offshore RMB reaching a high of 6.83875, marking a three-year peak [1]. - In just three trading days, the RMB appreciated nearly 1%, with a cumulative increase of over 2.4% since the beginning of the year [3]. Group 2: Reasons for RMB Strength - The first core reason for the RMB's strength is the historical shift in US monetary policy, with expectations of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, leading to a weakening dollar [9][10]. - The second reason is the continuous recovery of China's economic fundamentals, with key indicators such as PMI and consumer spending showing significant improvement, boosting confidence in RMB assets [12][13]. - The third reason is the accelerating trend of de-dollarization globally, with an increasing number of countries using RMB for cross-border trade settlements, which enhances the demand for RMB [14][15]. Group 3: Impact of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB has tangible benefits for ordinary citizens, including lower costs for foreign travel, imported goods, and potentially reduced fuel costs due to lower import prices for crude oil [17]. - While there may be short-term pressures for exporters, a stable exchange rate is expected to benefit foreign trade in the long run [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB - In the short term, the RMB is expected to have further appreciation potential, supported by ongoing foreign capital inflows and a recovering domestic economy [18][21]. - However, it is noted that the RMB will not experience a one-sided surge, and fluctuations will remain the norm, with the central bank aiming to maintain stability in the exchange rate [21].

2月26日上午，人民币汇率直线上涨，离岸人民币对美元升破6.84，创2023年4月14日以来新高。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 值得一提的是，人民币升值将对资本市场形成积极影响。短期内，股市表现可能会获得提振，使得以人 民币计价的资产出现同向升值。国际投行高盛曾就美股做过一个复盘研究，显示汇率上涨0.1个百分 点，股票估值则提升3%至5%。 ...

最近有个事儿挺值得关注：离岸人民币兑美元升破了6.9关口，创下阶段新高。不管你是做外贸的，还 是平时关心财经新闻，可能都在琢磨一个问题——这波人民币到底为什么突然这么强？后面还能不能继 续涨？ 先说结论：这一波升值，是内外因素凑一块儿了。美元自己弱了，咱们自己的基本面也硬气了。 先看外部。美元走弱是最大的"助攻"。美联储从2025年开始已经连着降了三次息，加起来75个基点，美 元指数去年全年跌了9.41%。到了今年年初，更是跌到97附近。更要命的是，美国司法部还在调查美联 储主席鲍威尔，这事儿对美元信用的冲击不小。美元一软，其他货币自然就硬气起来。有意思的是，人 民币这一波的涨幅，比欧元、英镑这些主要货币都猛，这说明咱不光靠别人弱，自己也有底气。 再说内部。这才是真正值得看的干货。 第一，贸易顺差创了历史新高。2025年全年，中国货物贸易顺差达到1.19万亿美元。这个数字本身就挺 能说明问题——赚回来的美元多了，人民币的底子自然就厚。 第二，企业终于开始结汇了。之前很多企业手里攥着美元不换，等着更高的价格。但这波人民币升值趋 势一明朗，大家坐不住了。2025年12月和今年1月，银行代客结售汇顺差分别冲到999 ...

消息面上，离岸人民币兑美元升破6.85，创2023年4月14日以来新高。据悉，航企有较多外币负债且多 以美元负债为主，美元走弱有助产生汇兑收益。国信证券此前表示，油价下行以及人民币升值均有利于 航司释放业绩。 申万宏源则表示，当前飞机制造链困境前所未有，供给高度约束，客座率水平已经达历史高位，出入境 旅客量增长趋势确定，航空板块投资有望迎来黄金时代。往后看天气转暖加快将利好3月旅游出行；"晚 春运"背景下节后各行业冲刺一季度订单任务，预计3月公商务恢复较快；中美元首将会晤，预计中美航 线未来有增加预期。 航空股全线走高，截至发稿，东方航空(00670)涨5.42%，报6.03港元；南方航空（600029）(01055)涨 3.9%，报6.4港元；中国国航（601111）(00753)涨2.66%，报7.34港元；国泰航空(00293)涨1.11%，报 13.7港元。 ...

Group 1 - The aviation stocks have risen across the board, with Eastern Airlines up 5.42% to HKD 6.03, Southern Airlines up 3.9% to HKD 6.4, Air China up 2.66% to HKD 7.34, and Cathay Pacific up 1.11% to HKD 13.7 [1] - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 6.85 mark, the highest since April 14, 2023, which is beneficial for airlines with significant foreign currency liabilities, primarily in USD [1] - Guosen Securities indicated that the decline in oil prices and the appreciation of the RMB are favorable for airlines to improve their performance [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the current aircraft manufacturing chain challenges are unprecedented, with supply highly constrained and passenger load factors reaching historical highs [1] - There is a confirmed growth trend in inbound and outbound passenger volumes, suggesting a potential golden era for aviation sector investments [1] - Warmer weather is expected to boost travel in March, and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders may lead to an increase in China-U.S. flight routes [1]

人民币已经持续升值将近一年了，这种趋势会一直延续下去吗？对老百姓有哪些影响？ 被"且战且退"的美元坑惨了 我们得把时钟拨回2025年。那时候，市场弥漫着一种诡异的焦虑，美国人挥舞着关税大棒，甚至把综合 关税税率干到了100%以上。按照教科书的逻辑，这该是我们最难受的时候。 但谁能想到，先倒下的竟然是美元自己？ 这是一场典型的"回旋镖"惨案。 白宫在那边疯狂加税，试图锁死中国的出口，但这招不仅没能把我们的顺差打下来，反而因为财政赤字 的无底洞和美联储在加息降息之间的反复横跳，把全球资本对美元的信仰砸出了裂痕。 看看那个惨不忍睹的美元指数吧，从高位的109一路俯冲跌破97。一年时间，美元指数暴跌了近11%。 这是什么概念？这是自2003年以来，美元表现最差的一年。 如果说美元的疲软是外因，那国内企业主们心态的崩塌就是这一轮升值的核心内燃机。 在过去很长一段时间里，我们的出口企业都像守财奴一样攥着美元不撒手。那时候大家赌的是"还会 跌"，手里拿着美元似乎就是拿着一张通往更富裕未来的船票。哪怕去年前11个月贸易顺差已经突破1万 亿，市场上依然静悄悄的。 这种沉寂在去年12月被彻底打破了。 当在岸人民币一举升破7.0这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook of foreign investment banks towards China's economy in 2026, suggesting a favorable environment for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to policy support, improving corporate profits, and capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "N" shaped trend in 2026, with a continuation of the upward trend from late last year into the Spring Festival [2] - External liquidity easing may be nearing its end, and while the AI industry shows medium-term promise, short-term discrepancies between reality and expectations may impact the market [2] - Despite potential market fluctuations in the second quarter, the upward trend of the A-share market is likely to remain intact due to the ongoing recovery of domestic demand [2] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Investors should pay attention to the development of the AI industry, particularly innovations in AI applications, as this is crucial for the A-share market in 2026 [3] - Marginal improvements in China's macroeconomy, including real estate and consumption, are also significant, with indicators showing positive trends [3] - The relationship between global re-inflation and liquidity is important, as the global inflation cycle is ahead of China's, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be key indicators to watch [3] Group 3: Capital Inflows - The overall upward trend in the market since the "924" rally has created a profit-making effect, attracting more capital recognition towards A-shares due to China's competitive advantages and economic resilience [3] - There is a clear trend of incremental capital inflows into A-shares, with both domestic and foreign investors viewing opportunities as outweighing risks [3] Group 4: Currency and Asset Revaluation - The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to be sustained, positively impacting the capital market [4] - The expectation of RMB appreciation may lead to a return of funds previously allocated to global assets, contributing to a potential "Asset Revaluation 2.0" in China [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in three areas: the AI industry, particularly infrastructure and hardware; cyclical sectors with ongoing commodity price increases; and the pharmaceutical sector, which may benefit from AI advancements [6] - The technology sector is highlighted as requiring careful selection for investment, with significant opportunities anticipated in technology, cyclical sectors, real estate, and certain consumer segments [6]

盘前要闻 1、英伟达财报再超市场预期，算力需求仍强劲!股价盘后一度涨超3% 类型：公司 情绪影响：正面 英伟达2026财年Q4营收(681亿美元)和数据中心营收(623亿美元)均超出市场预期，并且再次给出乐观的 季度营收预测，表明大规模的人工智能计算建设仍步入正轨。黄仁勋表示， 计算需求呈指数级增长。 这一强劲业绩有助于缓解市场对AI投资过热可持续性的疑虑。财报发布后，英伟达在美股盘后一度涨 超3%。 2、锂市突变!全球第四大生产国暂停出口，美股锂矿股全线大涨 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 2月25日，美股锂矿股全线大涨，Sigma Lithium一度暴涨超33%，美国雅保一度大涨超10%。消息面 上，津巴布韦宣布即日起暂停锂精矿及原矿出口，资源本地化战略落地力度远超预期，该国锂储量达 1.26亿吨，是全球主要供应国。机构认为，长期看，大国资源博弈、政策工具及产业链情绪变化可能放 大对稀缺性的定价。 3、多因素驱动!在岸、离岸人民币对美元双双升破6.87，受益方向曝光 类型：市场 情绪影响：正面 在岸、离岸人民币对美元一度双双升破6.87，机构表示，2025年11月以来中美经贸关系回稳，我国整体 外部环境改善， ...