Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK reducing tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports. The EU plans to sue the US at the WTO and impose countermeasures on $950 billion worth of US imports [1]. - The market risk sentiment has improved due to the potential first tariff trade agreement. However, concerns remain about the escalation of tariff scale and geopolitical conflicts [1][20]. - The central bank's monetary policy adjustments, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, are expected to support the market and maintain a loose liquidity environment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Alumina**: The night session of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.46%. Overseas, Trump's tariff stance is inconsistent; domestically, the monetary environment is loosening. Alumina prices are falling, and future supply and demand are expected to be loose. Short - term Shanghai aluminum may be weak and volatile [2][24]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night session rose 1.71%. US crude inventories decreased last week. Some US producers may cut spending, and US oil production may have peaked. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but low prices may provide room for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran [3][12]. - **Shipping**: EC opened low and rebounded, with the 06 contract down 3.64%. Shipping rates in May are mostly stable or slightly decreased. The supply of European routes is in excess due to the spill - over of US route capacity. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [4][35]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: US initial jobless claims last week decreased more than expected, indicating a stable labor market despite increasing tariff risks [5]. - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce's press conference highlighted China's foreign trade resilience. China is firm on tariff issues, opposes unilateralism, and promotes multilateral cooperation [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of the Private Enterprise Promotion Law by breaking barriers, expanding space, and optimizing services [7]. c. Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index increased, ICE Brent crude oil rose, while London gold and LME metals mostly fell [8]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose. A - shares also increased due to central bank policies. Short - term stock indexes may show a trend, and a wide - straddle option buying strategy is recommended [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations and policy adjustments have loosened market liquidity. The focus is on the progress of tariff negotiations [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Methanol**: Methanol night session rose 0.14%. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased. Short - term methanol is expected to be bullish [13][14]. - **Rubber**: RU slightly declined. Domestic and Thai rubber production is expected to increase. Affected by US tariff policies, rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices were weak. Consumption has peaked, but cost fluctuations provide some support. Attention is paid to the implementation of stimulus policies [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures were weak, and soda ash futures fluctuated. Both are in a period of inventory digestion, and the process will take time [17]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are under pressure due to weak demand and limited cost support [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is facing pressure due to rising port inventories and limited downstream demand improvement [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined. The potential trade agreement has improved risk sentiment, but geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold purchases support gold prices. Gold may continue to be strong and consolidate [20][21]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable domestic demand support copper prices. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Domestic demand is stable, and the market expects an increase in supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and downstream procurement demand support nickel prices, but stainless steel demand is average. Nickel prices may fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply decreased slightly, demand increased in March, and inventory increased. Upstream mine prices are weakening, and lithium prices may decline further [26][27]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by steel mill复产, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It may be supported in the short term and weak in the medium term [28]. - **Steel**: Steel supply is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Demand is expected to weaken due to the rainy season and overseas tariffs. Steel prices may be weak and volatile [29]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices were weak, affected by coke prices and increasing supply [30]. - **Coke**: Coke prices were weak, with the failure of the second - round price increase and the expected price cut. It is affected by steel demand [31]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Corn may correct in the short term. Supply is tight at high prices, and there are concerns about import reserve auctions. It should be treated cautiously bullish [32]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are volatile due to economic uncertainties. Zhengzhou cotton is also fluctuating, and the market is waiting for new demand channels [33]. - **Shipping Index**: The European container shipping market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to supply - demand imbalances and tariff policies [35].

Group 1: Company Analysis - Anjiasi (688581) achieved revenue of 637 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.14%, and a net profit of 293 million yuan, up 35.06% [6] - The company reported a revenue of 129 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.27%, with a net profit of approximately 56.25 million yuan, up 6.57% [6] - Domestic revenue reached 300 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.63%, while overseas revenue was 333 million yuan, up 36.19% [7] - The company has expanded its hospital coverage to over 2,400 by the end of 2024, increasing its presence in key regions [7] - Anjiasi's overseas client base grew by 23.40% to 116 clients by the end of 2024, with significant progress in North America and Europe [7] - The company launched a stock incentive plan to enhance employee motivation, with performance targets set for 2025-2026 [8] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 310 million, 387 million, and 461 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [9] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector is experiencing a stronger impact from interest rate cuts on the funding side compared to the investment side [11] - A comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [13] - The anticipated reduction in interest rates for loans and deposits is expected to be gradual, with a potential cut in the loan prime rate (LPR) in May [14] - The policy measures are expected to positively impact banks' interest margins, with a more favorable outlook for 2025 compared to 2024 [15] Group 3: Food Industry Analysis - Anjixin Food (603345) reported a total revenue of 15.127 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.70%, with a net profit of 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.46% [18] - The company has 39 products generating over 100 million yuan in revenue, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue [19] - The gross margin remained stable at 23.30% in 2024, while the net margin slightly decreased to 10.01% [20] - The company plans to optimize its product strategy and maintain a "buy" rating with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [21] Group 4: Market Overview - The US Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May FOMC meeting, indicating increased economic uncertainty [24] - The Chinese stock market showed positive trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,352 points, up 0.28% [36] - The market sentiment remains active, with a high percentage of stocks closing in the green [38]

国泰君安期货 2025-05-09 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 所长 早读 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | PTA | ★★★★ | PTA：国际贸易关系缓解，成本推升估值。多 PTA 空 SC 减仓。多 PTA 空 MEG 持有。供需 层面，PTA 供减需增，延续去库格局。供应端，本周台化 150 万吨，虹港 250 万吨装置按计 习近平同俄罗斯总统普京会谈 观点分享： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 据新华社报道，当地时间 5 月 8 日上午，俄罗斯总统普京同中国国家主席习近平在莫斯 科克里姆林宫举行会谈。两国元首就中俄关系和重大国际和地区问题深入交换意见，一致同 意坚定不移深化战略协作，推动中俄关系稳定、健康、高水平发展；共同弘扬正确二战史观， 维护联合国权威和地位，维护国际公平正义。习近平指出，中俄双方要坚持合作大方向，排 除外部干扰，让合作"稳"的基础更坚实、"进"的动能更充足。要发挥两国资源禀赋和产 业体系互补优势，拓展经贸、能源、农业、航空航天、人工智能等领域高质量互利合作；以 共建"一带一路"和欧亚经济联盟对接为平台，构建高标准互联互通格局；充分 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market for copper is strong, which supports the price. The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,330 with a daily decline of 0.59%, and the night - session closing price was 78,140 with a night - session increase of 1.05%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,475 with a 0.73% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 116,718, a decrease of 16,050 from the previous day, and the open interest was 179,692, an increase of 589. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 8,647, an increase of 1,577, and the open interest was 291,000, a decrease of 945 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 19,540, a decrease of 2,001, and the LME copper inventory was 194,275, an increase of 300. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 43.25%, a decrease of 1.15% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread increased by 24.17 to 45.82. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 100 to 72,300. The spot - to - near - month futures spread decreased by 35 to 225, and the near - month to consecutive - first - month contract spread increased by 190 to 560 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff and trade agreement terms, with the US retaining a 10% base tariff, reducing the tariff on the first 100,000 imported UK cars to 10%, and reducing steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. The EU will sue the US at the WTO over tariffs and prepare counter - measures against 95 billion euros of US imports [1] - **Micro**: ICSG data shows that the global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus of 289,000 tons in 2025 and 209,000 tons in 2026. Chile's copper production in March was 477,049 tons, a 9.1% year - on - year increase. Zambia's copper production in Q1 increased by 30% year - on - year to about 224,000 tons. The US added 10 mining projects to the fast - track approval list, including copper and palladium. Chile's copper export value in April was $4.52 billion, an 8.2% year - on - year increase [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, which includes reducing tariffs on UK-made cars to 10% and nearly zero tariffs on beef [1][3][5] - The agreement is seen as a significant deal for both countries, aimed at lowering non-tariff barriers for US goods and enhancing trade relations [3][4][5] - Following the announcement, US stock indices rose significantly, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1%, while the UK stock market showed mixed results, with Aston Martin's shares rising over 10% [1][5] Group 2 - The UK government has agreed to concessions on importing US food and agricultural products in exchange for reduced tariffs on UK car exports, allowing a quota of 100,000 cars with lower tariffs [3][5] - President Trump emphasized the importance of the agreement for both nations and mentioned plans to protect the steel industry, which is crucial for both economies [5] - Analysts noted that the UK is a net importer of US goods, making negotiations less challenging, and any reversal of high tariffs could benefit risk assets [6][8] Group 3 - The EU has announced plans to complain to the WTO about US tariffs and is considering countermeasures against $108 billion worth of US imports, including aircraft, alcoholic beverages, and automobiles [9][10] - The EU's proposed countermeasures are aimed at maintaining a balanced trade relationship and will be discussed with member states by June 10 [9][10] - The EU's actions are a response to the US's ongoing trade investigations, which could increase the total value of EU goods facing new tariffs to €549 billion [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold may continue to show a relatively strong consolidation performance. Despite the positive impact of the potential first trade agreement on risk sentiment, the market still worries about the escalation of tariff scale. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand continue to provide support [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 784.54, 790.42, 8154.00, and 8221.00 respectively. They have decreased by - 10.26, - 9.96, - 81.00, and - 85.00 with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.29%, - 1.24%, - 0.98%, and - 1.02% compared to the previous closing prices [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 127407, 51018, 232016, and 108449 respectively, and the trading volumes are 197963, 17040, 274975, and 16641 respectively [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 8.33, 2.45, 67.00, and 0.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold (in USD/ounce), and London Gold (in another form) are 792.87, 796.45, and 3431.105 respectively. They have increased by 13.37, 39.70, and 190.495 with corresponding percentage changes of 1.72%, 5.25%, and 5.88%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D is 8221.00, with an increase of 58.00 (0.71%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/ounce) is 33.21, with an increase of 1.21 (3.78%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 5.88, 67, 96.44, 7.19, and 7.70 respectively, compared to the previous values of 5.58, 71, 95.49, 7.48, and 7.93 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 15,648 kg, 959,785 kg, 40,607,507 (units), and 501,316,990 (units) respectively. The changes are unchanged, an increase of 96.00 kg, a decrease of - 281,064.04 (units), and an increase of 673016 (units) compared to the previous values [2] Related Data - **Market Indexes and Ratios**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.2654, 5606.91, 4.3, 62.04, and 7.2080 respectively, with changes of - 0.53%, - 0.77%, - 1.38%, 0.01%, and 0.10% compared to the previous values [2] - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold are 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486, and 32895 respectively, with changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, an increase of 481, and a decrease of - 1451 compared to the previous values [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: The US and the UK have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, and the US will maintain a unified 10% tariff on UK - imported goods. The UK will further relax market access for US goods. The EU has announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and may restrict imports of US wine, beer, and spirits. The US is about to start the legislative work of a large - scale tax - cut plan [3][4] - **Employment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [4] - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the May meeting. Powell mentioned the rising risks of unemployment and inflation in the future, showing a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the Fed is unlikely to make a clear statement [4]

2025年05月09日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡运行。基本面：英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，细节待敲定，美方保留 | 10%基 | | | | 准关税，美元上涨，风险偏好提振。供应端铜矿紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 210 元和 140 | | 元， | | 铜 | 国内库存周度去化 0.8 万吨，月差结构继续走强。交易策略：短期以震荡思路对待。风险提示：全球需求不及 | | | | | 预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日锌 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.49%，收于 22,565 元/吨。国内 0-3 月差 645 元/吨 | Back， | | | | 海外 0-3 月差 36.9 美元/吨 Con 结构，华南、华东对 2506 合约 500 元/吨升水，2506 合约 500 | 元/吨升水。 | | | | 社会库存 5 月 8 日 8.33 万吨，较 5 月 6 日去库 0.08 万吨 | | | | | 基本面：供应端，矿加工费上涨 ...

白银：震荡回落 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 黄金：美英贸易达成一致 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 789.14 | -1.49% | 786.42 | -1.81% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.53 | -1.42% | 783.00 | -1.78% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3374.94 | -0.75% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3210.00 | -4.80% | - | - | | | 沪银2506 | 8094 | -1.92% | 8154.00 | -0.12% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 8100 | -1.57% | 8142 | -0.16% | | 子 盘 | Comex白银2506 | 32.605 | -0.02% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | 32.446 | -2.13% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | ...

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：美英贸易达成一致 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：现货偏强，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：短期震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 789.14 | -1.49% | 786.42 | -1.81% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.53 | -1.42% | 783.00 | -1.78% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3374.94 | -0.75% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3210.00 | -4.80% | - | - | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin market shows a narrow - range oscillation [1] - The trend strength of tin is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Tin Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 261,480 with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 261,450 with a night - session increase of 0.30%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 31,800 with a daily increase of 0.49% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 104,324, an increase of 14,007 from the previous day, and the open interest was 30,964, a decrease of 979. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 180, a decrease of 9, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 [2] - **Futures Inventory and Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,334, a decrease of 34, and the inventory of LME Tin was 2,755, unchanged. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 263,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 261,900, an increase of 1,000. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 158, an increase of 7. The spot - to - futures main contract spread was 670, an increase of 740 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 250,500, an increase of 2,000; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 254,500, an increase of 2,000. The price of 63A solder bar was 178,250, an increase of 1,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 171,250, an increase of 1,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The UK and the US have reached an agreement on the terms of the tariff trade agreement, details to be finalized. Trump said the agreement with the UK is not a template, 10% may be the minimum, and tariffs on other countries may be higher [2][3] - The EU will sue the US at the WTO over tariffs and is preparing counter - measures against 95 billion euros of US imports, targeting cars, airplanes, and whiskey [2][3] - Trump called on people to "buy stocks", criticized Powell again for being slow, and said there is almost no inflation [2][3] - Facing tariff shocks, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were three - way differences in the decision - making [2][3] - Kazakhstan said it has no plan to cut oil production in May, challenging the OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia [2][3] - The conflict between India and Pakistan escalated, with explosions in many places. The Pakistani stock market tumbled 7%, and the Indian rupee against the US dollar had its largest decline in more than three years [2] - Google responded to the decline in search traffic on Apple devices, saying it still sees continuous growth in the total number of search queries. Morgan Stanley said the threat of AI to search is over - exaggerated, and it's the best time to buy Google stocks [4]