Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, which includes reducing tariffs on UK-made cars to 10% and nearly zero tariffs on beef [1][3][5] - The agreement is seen as a significant deal for both countries, aimed at lowering non-tariff barriers for US goods and enhancing trade relations [3][4][5] - Following the announcement, US stock indices rose significantly, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1%, while the UK stock market showed mixed results, with Aston Martin's shares rising over 10% [1][5] Group 2 - The UK government has agreed to concessions on importing US food and agricultural products in exchange for reduced tariffs on UK car exports, allowing a quota of 100,000 cars with lower tariffs [3][5] - President Trump emphasized the importance of the agreement for both nations and mentioned plans to protect the steel industry, which is crucial for both economies [5] - Analysts noted that the UK is a net importer of US goods, making negotiations less challenging, and any reversal of high tariffs could benefit risk assets [6][8] Group 3 - The EU has announced plans to complain to the WTO about US tariffs and is considering countermeasures against $108 billion worth of US imports, including aircraft, alcoholic beverages, and automobiles [9][10] - The EU's proposed countermeasures are aimed at maintaining a balanced trade relationship and will be discussed with member states by June 10 [9][10] - The EU's actions are a response to the US's ongoing trade investigations, which could increase the total value of EU goods facing new tariffs to €549 billion [10]

20250509申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 784.54 | 790.42 | 8154.00 | 8221.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 794.80 | 800.38 | 8235.00 | 8306.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -10.26 | -9.96 | -81.00 | -85.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -1.29% | -1.24% | -0.98% | -1.02% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 127407 | 51018 | 232016 | 108449 | | | | 成交量 | 197963 | 17040 | 274975 | 16641 | | | | 现货升贴水 | 8 ...

2025年05月09日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡运行。基本面：英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，细节待敲定，美方保留 | 10%基 | | | | 准关税，美元上涨，风险偏好提振。供应端铜矿紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 210 元和 140 | | 元， | | 铜 | 国内库存周度去化 0.8 万吨，月差结构继续走强。交易策略：短期以震荡思路对待。风险提示：全球需求不及 | | | | | 预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日锌 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.49%，收于 22,565 元/吨。国内 0-3 月差 645 元/吨 | Back， | | | | 海外 0-3 月差 36.9 美元/吨 Con 结构，华南、华东对 2506 合约 500 元/吨升水，2506 合约 500 | 元/吨升水。 | | | | 社会库存 5 月 8 日 8.33 万吨，较 5 月 6 日去库 0.08 万吨 | | | | | 基本面：供应端，矿加工费上涨 ...

白银：震荡回落 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 黄金：美英贸易达成一致 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 789.14 | -1.49% | 786.42 | -1.81% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.53 | -1.42% | 783.00 | -1.78% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3374.94 | -0.75% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3210.00 | -4.80% | - | - | | | 沪银2506 | 8094 | -1.92% | 8154.00 | -0.12% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 8100 | -1.57% | 8142 | -0.16% | | 子 盘 | Comex白银2506 | 32.605 | -0.02% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | 32.446 | -2.13% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | ...

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：美英贸易达成一致 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：现货偏强，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：短期震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 789.14 | -1.49% | 786.42 | -1.81% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.53 | -1.42% | 783.00 | -1.78% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3374.94 | -0.75% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3210.00 | -4.80% | - | - | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin market shows a narrow - range oscillation [1] - The trend strength of tin is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Tin Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 261,480 with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 261,450 with a night - session increase of 0.30%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 31,800 with a daily increase of 0.49% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 104,324, an increase of 14,007 from the previous day, and the open interest was 30,964, a decrease of 979. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 180, a decrease of 9, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 [2] - **Futures Inventory and Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,334, a decrease of 34, and the inventory of LME Tin was 2,755, unchanged. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 263,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 261,900, an increase of 1,000. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 158, an increase of 7. The spot - to - futures main contract spread was 670, an increase of 740 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 250,500, an increase of 2,000; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 254,500, an increase of 2,000. The price of 63A solder bar was 178,250, an increase of 1,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 171,250, an increase of 1,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The UK and the US have reached an agreement on the terms of the tariff trade agreement, details to be finalized. Trump said the agreement with the UK is not a template, 10% may be the minimum, and tariffs on other countries may be higher [2][3] - The EU will sue the US at the WTO over tariffs and is preparing counter - measures against 95 billion euros of US imports, targeting cars, airplanes, and whiskey [2][3] - Trump called on people to "buy stocks", criticized Powell again for being slow, and said there is almost no inflation [2][3] - Facing tariff shocks, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were three - way differences in the decision - making [2][3] - Kazakhstan said it has no plan to cut oil production in May, challenging the OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia [2][3] - The conflict between India and Pakistan escalated, with explosions in many places. The Pakistani stock market tumbled 7%, and the Indian rupee against the US dollar had its largest decline in more than three years [2] - Google responded to the decline in search traffic on Apple devices, saying it still sees continuous growth in the total number of search queries. Morgan Stanley said the threat of AI to search is over - exaggerated, and it's the best time to buy Google stocks [4]

首席点评：首个关税贸易协议获将达成 市场风险情绪有所好转 英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，英国将对美商品关税从 5.1%降至1.8%，美国则维持对英进 口商品10%的统一关税不变，英国将进一步放宽对美商品市场准入，特朗普表示协议最终细节将在接下 来几周内敲定。欧盟将就美关税向世贸组织提出诉讼，并准备对950亿欧元自美国进口产品采取反制措 施。在宣布美英两国达成贸易协议时，特朗普说"最好现在就出去买股票"。特朗普再批鲍威尔动作慢， 称所有央行都降息，美联储是例外。印巴冲突升级，多地发生爆炸。中国国家主席同俄罗斯总统普京会 谈。中美将就经贸问题会谈，路透社援引知情人士的话称，会谈预计讨论全面降低关税、取消特定产品 关税、美国取消的中国商品小额豁免政策以及中国对美国公司的出口管制。 重点品种：氧化铝、原油、航运 氧化铝： 夜盘沪铝主力合约收涨 0.46%。海外角度，特朗普关税态度有所反复；国内降准降息，货币 环境趋于宽松。基本面角度，氧化铝再度收跌，未来供需预计宽松，但当前部分厂商利润较低、存在检 修现象，因此期货再度下跌还需看到铝土矿价格的继续走弱，以及氧化铝厂商的复产。据SMM消息， 近期铝加工环节除铝线 ...

贸易协议突破、特朗普喊"买"，美股两连涨，美铝涨超5%；比特币涨破10万大关；美债跳水；美 油反弹超3%，期金一度跌超2%。 英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，细节待敲定；特朗普称对英协议并非模板，10%或是最低， 他国关税可能更高。 欧盟将就美关税向世贸组织提出诉讼，并准备对950亿欧元自美国进口产品采取反制措施，拿汽 车、飞机和威士忌"开刀"。 特朗普喊"买股票"，再批鲍威尔动作慢，称他什么都不懂，几乎没有通胀。 面对关税冲击，英国央行如期降息25基点，但决策出现三方分歧。 挑战沙特领导的OPEC+：哈萨克斯坦称未计划5月削减产油量。 印巴冲突升级，多地发生爆炸，巴基斯坦股市重挫7%，印度卢比兑美元创逾三年最大跌幅。 谷歌回应苹果设备上搜索流量下降：搜索查询总量方面仍看到持续增长；大摩称AI对搜索威胁被 夸大，抄底谷歌最佳时机已到。 OpenAI领导层重大变化，任命新应用CEO，Altman让出部分职权；OpenAI野心爆棚，启动全球 版"星际之门"，首批十国。 提醒：周五将公布中国4月进出口数据。 ...

但美国与欧盟的关税谈判似乎进展得不太顺利。当地时间5月8日，欧盟委员会发布消息称，将向世贸组织投诉 美国关税，并计划对950亿欧元（约合1080亿美元）的美国进口产品采取潜在反制措施，以应对美国关税。 特朗普宣布了 5月8日晚间，据央视新闻客户端，当地时间8日，英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。英国政府同 意进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让步，以换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税。 英美达成一致！ 今日晚间，据央视新闻客户端，英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。据最新消息，美国将对英国制 造的汽车关税降至10%，美英协议下，将把牛肉关税降至接近零的水平。 随后，美国总统特朗普表示，与英国达成重大协议，将降低美国商品的非关税壁垒，最终细节将在未来数周内 拟定。受此影响，美股三大指数全线拉升，纳指涨超1%。英国股市则维持弱势震荡，阿斯顿马丁伦敦股价逆 势大涨超10%，领跑欧洲一众汽车制造概念股。 据《每日电讯报》，在贸易协议中，美国将对英国制造的汽车关税降至10%，英国汽车制造商将获得10万辆车 的出口配额，并享受较低的关税。此外，美英协议下，将把牛肉关税降至"接近零"。 随后，美国总统特朗普在椭圆形 ...

新华社报道，英国央行英格兰银行8日宣布，下调基准利率25个基点，从4.5%下调至4.25%。 英国央行指出，需要确定通胀持续保持在低位，才能谨慎决定下次降息的幅度和时间。市场预期，英国央行可能在6月份再次下调基准利率25个基点。 3月份，英国通胀率为2.6%。英国央行预测，受能源价格上涨影响，通胀将在几个月后短暂升至3.7%。 当地时间8日，英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。英国政府同意进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让步，以换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关 税。 图片来源：视觉中国-VCG111554733487 每经编辑｜张锦河 据央视新闻，当地时间8日，欧盟委员会发布消息称，将向世贸组织投诉美国关税，并计划对950亿欧元的美国进口产品采取潜在反制措施，以应对美国关 税。 欧盟称将继续优先与美国寻求互利且平衡的解决方案。拟议的反制措施将针对美国飞机、酒精饮料、鱼类、汽车和汽车零部件，以及美国化学品、塑料、电 气设备、保健产品和机械，此外，还包括可能实施限制的价值44亿欧元欧盟废钢和化工产品出口。 英国央行指出，美国对全球加征关税以来，全球贸易政策不确定性加剧，金融市场出现波动，这种不确定性和新的关税措 ...