Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Hanxi - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019174 - Futures Trading Qualification Number: F3082452 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, asphalt continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. It followed the rise of crude oil, but the shipping resistance significantly increased, and the factory inventory accumulation rate increased month - on - month. In the short term, the valuation of asphalt may be weaker than that of crude oil. Attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price fluctuation range of the asphalt market was 3,621 - 3,631 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation range narrowed [4]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding the reverse spread for the inter - period trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. Although some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns and production cuts, the resumption of asphalt production by Xinjiang Tianze, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai, along with the stable production of Shandong Shengxing, Dongming Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical, led to the increase in capacity utilization [4]. - **Demand**: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.0%. Shandong had the most significant increase due to increased supply and good downstream construction demand. East China had the largest decrease because of intermittent production of major refineries and the preference of traders for low - cost resources in social warehouses [4]. - **Valuation**: The BU futures fluctuated and strengthened with crude oil, while the spot price remained stable. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt decreased, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. The prices in Southwest, South China, Shandong, and East China showed a downward trend, while the price in North China increased slightly [4]. 2. Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different crude oil varieties have different asphalt yields, and there are also impacts from import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight [7]. - **Futures - Market Price and Trading Positions**: The report presents data on the trading positions of asphalt futures, the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil, the spread between BU and SC, and the warehouse receipts of BU in different regions [9][10][11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions, the price differences between regions, and the production profit margin of asphalt in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report provides historical data on the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, as well as the calendar spread data [15][16][17]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Demand** - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [22]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 9.0% month - on - month. Shandong had the most significant increase, while East China had the largest decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [25]. - **Supply** - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: In October 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.35 million tons. From September 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly total production was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 tons. As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of 54 asphalt samples increased by 0.9%, and the social inventory of 104 samples decreased by 1.8% [31]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [34][35][37]. - **Inventory**: It presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the total inventory rate of the asphalt market over the years [43][44][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, geopolitical and macro factors intermittently affected oil prices, which maintained a wide - range fluctuation. Asphalt supply continued to increase, and terminal demand recovered month - on - month, but the release of terminal demand was limited. Under the pattern of both supply and demand booming, the industrial chain inventory decreased continuously. In the short term, the spot price of asphalt is expected to run weakly, the single - side of asphalt futures is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3450 [4][5][34]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In September, geopolitical and macro factors intermittently affected oil prices, which maintained a wide - range fluctuation, and the discount of diluted asphalt remained stable. The supply of asphalt continued to increase, and terminal demand recovered month - on - month, gradually entering the peak season. Under the pattern of both supply and demand booming, the industrial chain inventory decreased continuously. Currently, refinery inventory is at a low level with a slow destocking speed, and social inventory continues to decline. The processing profit of refineries is acceptable, supporting high - level operation of local refineries, and the valuation of asphalt is relatively high [4][9]. 1.2 Market Outlook - The near - end of oil prices rebounded strongly, providing some support for the cost side of asphalt, but the spot price was weak. Supply continued to increase, while demand was expected to be weak due to typhoon weather and the approaching National Day holiday. The inventory of the industrial chain showed a differentiated trend, with social inventory continuously destocking and releasing supply, while the inventory pressure of refineries gradually increased. In the short term, the spot price will run weakly, the single - side of asphalt futures is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3450 [5][34]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Range - bound fluctuations. - Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2512 contract [6][35]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - Same as the market review in the preface summary, geopolitical and macro factors affected oil prices, asphalt supply increased, demand recovered, inventory decreased, refinery profit was acceptable, and asphalt valuation was relatively high [4][9]. 2.2 Supply Overview - From January to August 2025, China's asphalt production was 18.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.46 million tons or 9%. In August, the total domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.61 million tons, and it was 0.12 million tons more than the previous production plan. It is estimated that from January to September 2025, China's asphalt production will be about 20.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons or 11%. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in October 2025 is expected to be about 1.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 million tons (statistics in mid - August) or 9%, and a year - on - year increase of 0.5 million tons or 46%. In August, the domestic asphalt import was 269,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 111,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 32,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the total asphalt import was 2.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 203,000 tons or 7.9% [13][14][16]. 2.3 Demand Overview - In September 2025, the demand in Shandong and East China was stable, and the rush - construction demand was gradually released; the demand in Northeast and North China was average, affected by transportation, rainfall, and construction restrictions; the demand in South China recovered after the reduction of rainfall but was briefly suppressed by typhoons; the demand in Southwest Yunnan and Guizhou started with the reduction of rainfall, while the demand in Sichuan and Chongqing was sluggish. The overall rush - construction demand increased later, but the demand release in some regions was less than expected due to factors such as inventory and funds. The refinery's shipment volume increased month - on - month to a relatively high level in the same period. On the week of September 19, the shipment was 660,000 tons, an increase of 120,000 tons or 22% compared with the previous month and an increase of 280,000 tons or 75% compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of road modified asphalt increased month - on - month but was still lower than the same period in previous years, and as of September 19, it was 30.31%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points compared with the previous month and a decrease of 3.19 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of waterproofing membranes also increased month - on - month and was at a neutral level in the same period, an increase of 5.97 percentage points to 36.57% [23]. 2.4 Inventory and Valuation - The inventory of the industrial chain decreased seasonally and remained at a low level in the same period. In September, the refinery inventory rate was 26.2%, a slight destocking of 0.5% compared with August, and it was still at a low level in the same period. The social inventory continued to destock. The cost price of asphalt fluctuated at a relatively low level, and the processing profit increased slightly month - on - month. As of September 24, it was - 37.3 yuan/ton, an increase of about 37.3 yuan/ton compared with the same period in August. The discount of diluted asphalt decreased slightly by about 0.5 US dollars to 6.5 US dollars/barrel compared with the end of August. In terms of basis, in East China, affected by rainfall in the middle and late ten - days, the demand and spot price decreased, and the basis decreased by about 63 yuan to 10 yuan/ton compared with the end of August, which was at a medium level in the same period. In South China, the demand gradually improved, but the social inventory was still at a high level, and the basis rebounded from a low level and then maintained a range - bound fluctuation, reaching 60 yuan/ton as of September 25, an increase of 67 yuan/ton compared with the previous month. In Shandong, the supply increased, but the demand was also gradually released, and the basis remained stable, an increase of about 57 yuan to 190 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [28][29]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The near - end of oil prices rebounded strongly, providing some support for the cost side of asphalt, but the spot price was weak. Supply continued to increase, while demand was expected to be weak due to typhoon weather and the approaching National Day holiday. The inventory of the industrial chain showed a differentiated trend, with social inventory continuously destocking and releasing supply, while the inventory pressure of refineries gradually increased. In the short term, the spot price will run weakly, the single - side of asphalt futures is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3450. Strategy recommendations are single - side range - bound fluctuations, the spread between asphalt and crude oil fluctuating weakly, and selling out - of - the - money call options for the BU2512 contract [34][35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Driven by the rise in international oil prices, L2601 fluctuated strongly and closed at 7,142 yuan/ton. Affected by the restart of some devices last week, PE production and capacity utilization increased month - on - month. Downstream demand is seasonally recovering, driving the downstream start - up rate to rise. Recently, the inventory of production enterprises and social inventory decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory pressure is not large. In the short term, L2601 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and technically, attention should be paid to the support of the Bollinger Band range near 7,084 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average near 7,182 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,142 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,142 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,182 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,218 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The trading volume was 191,081 lots, up 10,438 lots; the open interest was 571,775 lots, down 17,901 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 40, unchanged. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 423,733 lots, down 5,604 lots; the short positions were 479,444 lots, down 8,589 lots; the net long positions were - 55,711 lots, up 2,985 lots [3] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,166.96 yuan/ton, down 3.91 yuan; in East China, it was 7,301.67 yuan/ton, down 3.81 yuan. The basis was 24.96 yuan, down 40.91 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.7 US dollars/barrel, up 0.47 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 597.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.87 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 846 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical start - up rate was 80.36%, up 2.32 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene (PE) for packaging film was 51.78%, up 0.48 percentage points; for pipes, it was 31.83%, up 0.16 percentage points; for agricultural film, it was 26.75%, up 2.63 percentage points [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 6.59%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.25%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.3%, up 0.04 percentage points; for at - the - money call options, it was 10.31%, up 0.04 percentage points [3] Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, China's PE weekly production increased by 2.97% month - on - month to 631,000 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization increased by 2.23% month - on - month to 80.36%. The average start - up rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.8% month - on - month, with the agricultural film start - up rate increasing by 2.6% month - on - month. As of September 24th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 458,300 tons, down 6.53% from the previous period; as of September 19th, the PE social inventory was 534,800 tons, down 2.17% from the previous period. As of September 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.24% week - on - week to 7,550 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 93 yuan/ton to - 300 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 6,308 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 893 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the retail price adjustment for refined oil is likely to be suspended due to the current pricing not reaching the adjustment threshold, despite a slight increase in crude oil prices during the recent pricing cycle [1][2] - During the pricing cycle from September 9 to September 23, international crude oil prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the change rate moving from negative to a low positive value, suggesting limited room for retail price adjustments [1] - The monitoring model from Zhaochuang Information indicates that as of September 22, the reference crude oil change rate was 0.39%, leading to an expected increase of 15 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, but still below the retail price adjustment threshold [1] Group 2 - Zhaochuang Information forecasts that the oil price will face downward pressure due to inventory accumulation, while factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and disturbances in Europe provide some support for oil prices [2] - The new pricing cycle is expected to start with a negative change rate, with an anticipated retail price decrease of 80 yuan per ton, and the adjustment window set for October 13, which coincides with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, adding uncertainty to the final outcome [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillation", with a short - term supply - demand contradiction not being prominent. In September, both supply and demand increased, and the long - term trend continues to follow crude oil fluctuations [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that in the asphalt market, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent during the traditional peak season, with both supply and demand increasing. Supply is affected by factors such as refinery production plans and raw material prices, demand shows regional differences, inventory is in a state of destocking, and cost is influenced by the complex situation in the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: For October's local refinery production schedule, two information companies' tracking data shows 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although factors like weak crude oil prices and sufficient raw materials in September - October boost production enthusiasm, some refinery maintenance and intermittent production limit the growth rate [4]. - **Demand**: In North China and Shandong, some projects are rushing to work, and demand is gradually being released. In East and South China, demand is average, but sales have increased due to preferential policies. This week's shipment volume reached 455,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.6%, with significant growth in North and East China [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, both factory and social inventories of asphalt in China are in a state of destocking, especially in Shandong, mainly due to contract fulfillment and actual terminal demand [4]. - **Cost**: This week, the crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend of "rising first and then falling". Multiple factors led to a decline in the price center. By Friday, WTI crude oil closed at $62.68 per barrel, and Brent at $66.68 per barrel, with the weekly average price down by $1.2 and $0.8 respectively compared to last week [4]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The investment view is "oscillation". The trading strategy for single - side trading is "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][10]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [15][17][19]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduled Production**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08 [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory volumes and rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It presents the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][69].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector showed a downward trend, with the main contract for paraxylene (PX) opening at 6698.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 2.63% [1] - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to a tight supply-demand balance, with recent domestic maintenance units gradually restarting, leading to weaker market sentiment and lack of driving force from crude oil [1] - The supply side remains stable with no significant changes in domestic and international facilities, while the demand side shows a slight increase in PTA processing fees, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [2] Group 2 - Domestic PX production for the week was reported at 770.98 million tons, with a utilization rate of 84.63%, remaining unchanged from the previous week [2] - PTA production increased to 138.8 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.77 million tons, with a utilization rate of 74.95%, up by 4.30% [2] - Short-term PX prices are anticipated to follow fluctuations in crude oil prices, with resistance around 6850 CNY and support near 6500 CNY [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for bottle-grade PET showed a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 5828.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 5830.00 CNY and a low of 5750.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.97% [1] - The supply of bottle-grade PET has slightly increased this week, while downstream market demand remains cautious, leading to a weak market performance [1] - In July, bottle-grade PET exports rebounded, and with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and falling crude oil prices, processing fees for bottle-grade PET are at a low level, suggesting a short-term weak price outlook [1] Group 2 - Domestic production of bottle-grade PET reached 330,300 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons or 0.32%, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.31%, up by 0.23% from the previous period [2] - The average weekly capacity utilization rate for China's polyester industry is 87.9%, reflecting an increase of 0.56% from the previous week [2] - In July, China exported 579,600 tons of bottle-grade PET, an increase of 34,100 tons or 6.25% compared to the previous month, with a cumulative export volume of 3,820,600 tons projected for 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and both supply and demand are expected to increase during the traditional peak season in September. The overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is a negative factor. In September 2025, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41% year - on - year increase) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17% month - on - month increase). From January to September 2025, the total production of refinery asphalt is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18% year - on - year increase) [4]. - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. The demand release is less than expected. Some demand in the north has slightly increased, and the market is optimistic about September's demand. In the south, the reduction of rainfall has led to a slight recovery in demand. It is expected that the peak season will not be prosperous this year [4]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral. This week, the asphalt factory inventory has shown an accumulation trend, especially in the northeast. The social inventory has shown a destocking trend, especially in Shandong [4]. - **Cost**: It is oscillating. International oil prices first fell and then rebounded due to factors such as changes in US crude oil inventory, OPEC+ production plans, and geopolitical events [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with both supply and demand increasing in September, and the general trend follows crude oil fluctuations [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity [4]. Price - There are charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of asphalt in the main regions from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. Supply - **Production Scheduling Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly production scheduling and output of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][35]. - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [45][46][47]. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].

Core Insights - The main contract price for propylene closed at 6420 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY from the previous day, while spot prices in East China and North China showed slight declines [1] - Overall operating rate for propylene decreased to 73%, down by 2% [1] - Downstream production rates and profits varied, with notable decreases in PP powder and phenol ketone, while propylene acid saw the largest increase in operating rate [1] Supply Analysis - Propylene supply is tightening due to reduced operating rates and maintenance at several facilities, including Shandong Zhenhua and Qingdao Jinneng [1] - The restart plans for Wanhua and Hebei Haiwei are expected to alleviate the tight supply situation in the near future [1] - Current inventory stands at 31,710 tons, a decrease of 5,320 tons [1] Demand Analysis - Downstream demand is weakening as propylene prices remain high, leading to reduced profitability in several sectors [1] - The operating rate for PP powder has dropped significantly, while the production of butanol and propylene acid has seen slight increases [1] - Some downstream purchasing enthusiasm has diminished, potentially limiting the upward price movement of propylene [1] Cost Factors - OPEC+ continues to maintain increased production, but geopolitical tensions are causing fluctuations in oil prices [1] - External propane prices are on the rise, impacting overall cost structures [1] Strategic Recommendations - A neutral stance is suggested for single positions, while monitoring the main PDH restart for potential high-level hedging opportunities [1] - No specific strategies are recommended for cross-commodity trading at this time [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.71%, the Dow Jones down 0.97%, and the S&P 500 down 1.29% [2][3] - TSMC and Nvidia both fell over 2%, while NIO dropped 3% after earnings [2] - PepsiCo saw an increase of over 5% [2] Stock Prices - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 45102.05, down 442.83 points (-0.97%) [3] - Nasdaq Composite: 21087.81, down 367.74 points (-1.71%) [3] - S&P 500: 6377.15, down 83.11 points (-1.29%) [3] Pre-Market Movements - TSMC's stock fell over 3% in pre-market trading [3] - NIO's stock initially rose over 5% before experiencing a drop of about 20% [4] Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI crude up over 3% to $65.91 per barrel, and Brent crude up 1.84% to $69.40 per barrel [4]