Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Anton Oilfield Services (03337), which has risen over 60% in the month, with a current price of 1.27 HKD and a trading volume of 39.8 million HKD [1] - The U.S. Air Force is set to conduct military exercises in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions of Iranian crude oil and chemical products due to escalating tensions, which has led to increased oil prices and heightened volatility in the market [1] - Anton Oilfield Services announced new project orders worth 1.167 billion CNY for oilfield operation services, energy storage transformation technology services, and fracturing pumping technology services, although new orders decreased by 30.5% year-on-year due to a high base from the previous year [1] Group 2 - In other overseas markets, the company secured multiple large orders, including well services, mud services, and production equipment services, with new orders increasing by 525.8% year-on-year [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 27 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 82 元至 6342 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6450 元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （+110），华南瓶片价格 6490 元/吨（+90）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1965 手至 6.05 万手，空头持仓减少 1374 手至 6.56 万手。 【重要资讯】 30.46 万吨，环比-2.07 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.7%，环比-4.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5543 元， 环比-45 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-40 元/吨，环比+58 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 ...

1月26日(周一)，美元兑加元延续承压下行态势，盘中最低下探1.3677，截至发稿交投于该位置，日内跌 幅0.1679%，今开与昨收均为1.3697，最高触及1.3709。受美元指数走弱、原油价格支撑加元及美加货 币政策博弈影响，汇价短期震荡走弱，延续开年以来的区间博弈格局。 关键点位方面，下方核心支撑为1.3677日内低点，跌破后将进一步下探1.3650一线；上方阻力先看 1.3700整数关口，突破后可上看1.3750，若无法有效站上则反弹乏力，仍将回归震荡。 后续需重点关注1月28日加拿大央行议息会议，此次会议料维持利率不变，政策声明对通胀和经济的判 断将影响加元走势；同时跟踪国际原油价格波动、美国经济数据及美元指数走势，直接主导汇价短期方 向。此外，美加墨协议审查的相关动态也需持续留意，贸易情绪变化将成为重要扰动因素。 风险层面，需警惕原油价格因地缘风险降温出现回调，进而削弱加元支撑；若美国经济数据超预期走 强，推动美元指数阶段性反弹，美元兑加元或顺势回弹。短期来看，汇价大概率维持1.3650-1.3750区间 震荡，多空博弈下难现单边趋势，油价与美元强弱将成为短期走势核心推手。 美加货币政策分化形成博 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 | 72 | 元至 | 6406 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6340 | 元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | （+90），华南瓶片价格 | 6400 | 元/吨（+120）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 1359 | 手至 | 6.25 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 2504 | 手至 | 6.69 | 万手。 | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | 30.46 | 万吨，环比-2.07 | 万吨。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 国内聚酯瓶 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern against the US dollar (USD) due to the Bank of Canada's policy stance, oil price volatility, and uncertainties surrounding the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review [1][2] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating that the current rate is appropriate, which provides a foundation of support for the CAD [1] - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding future actions by the Bank of Canada, with some institutions predicting potential rate hikes due to persistent inflation, while others foresee continued economic weakness leading to rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance contrasts with the Bank of Canada's stable policy, affecting the interest rate differential between the US and Canada, which is a significant factor influencing CAD's performance [1][2] - As an energy-exporting currency, the CAD is highly correlated with oil prices; recent fluctuations in oil prices, combined with trade tensions, are suppressing demand expectations and impacting the CAD negatively [1][2] - The annual review of the USMCA is a critical risk factor for the CAD, as changes in trade agreement terms and tariff adjustments could directly impact Canadian export trade, leading to weakened fundamental support for the CAD [2] Group 3 - The CAD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with strong support levels below and significant resistance above, indicating a lack of clear directional movement [2] - Key variables to monitor include Canadian inflation, employment data, and central bank policy statements, which will directly influence interest rate expectations [2] - The potential for CAD appreciation exists if oil prices rise, the Bank of Canada adopts a more hawkish tone, and trade risks diminish; conversely, CAD may face downward pressure if oil prices decline, trade tensions escalate, or economic data weakens [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a slight appreciation against the US dollar (USD), influenced by monetary policy divergence, oil price fluctuations, and trade agreement uncertainties, with short-term trends remaining unclear and medium-term appreciation potential constrained [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of January 22, 2026, the CAD/USD exchange rate is 0.7235, showing a minor increase of 0.0796% from the previous trading day [1]. - The USD/CAD exchange rate has fluctuated from 1.3724 at the beginning of the year to a high of 1.3908, currently stabilizing in the 1.38-1.39 range [1]. - The exchange rate has shown a strong support level above 1.3800, with significant resistance around 1.3900-1.3920 [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 2.25% in 2025 and signaled a pause in rate cuts, with expectations to maintain the rate in 2026 [2]. - The Federal Reserve has reduced rates by 75 basis points, with market expectations for two more rate cuts before September 2026, creating a "looser US, stable Canada" policy environment [3]. - There is a divergence in long-term policy outlooks among institutions, with some predicting no changes while others foresee potential rate hikes by the Bank of Canada [3]. Group 3: Oil Price Impact - The CAD is closely tied to oil prices, with current weak oil prices being a significant factor suppressing the CAD [3]. - WTI crude oil prices are around $59.30, with concerns over US and European trade affecting global energy consumption and, consequently, the CAD [3]. - Long-term factors such as OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical risks may support oil prices, potentially benefiting the CAD [3]. Group 4: Trade Relations and Economic Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding the USMCA review in summer 2026 pose risks to the CAD, as changes in trade agreements could impact Canadian exports and the economy [4]. - Canadian exports have been negatively affected by increased tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising to 5.9% by October 2025, leading to a contraction in export growth [4]. - The Canadian economy shows resilience in consumer spending and labor market improvements, but challenges remain, including weak business investment and stagnant population growth [4]. Group 5: Long-term Forecasts - Institutions generally predict limited appreciation potential for the CAD, with forecasts suggesting a gradual strengthening to around 1.35 (CAD/USD 0.7407) in 2026, primarily in the first half of the year [5]. - Morgan Stanley indicates that adjustments in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace will reinforce the USD's relative strength, limiting the CAD's appreciation potential [5].

Group 1 - In early January, international crude oil prices exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, reaching a three-month high after a five-day consecutive rise [3] - Domestic diesel inventory levels among trading units increased to 29.65% of capacity as of January 15, 2026, up 0.55 percentage points from the previous month and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The market sentiment improved due to rising crude oil prices, leading to increased replenishment operations by trading units, although diesel demand expectations weakened, limiting the extent of inventory recovery [3][6] Group 2 - Diesel wholesale prices remained under pressure despite a rise in crude oil prices, as many sales units faced unmet monthly sales targets and weak demand [3] - The price difference between wholesale and retail for diesel increased significantly, while gasoline prices showed mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases due to better demand expectations [5] - The average theoretical profit for domestic refined diesel was 1583 CNY/ton, up 4.28% from the previous month, while gasoline profits showed a mixed performance with some declines [5] Group 3 - Forecasts indicate that diesel demand is expected to weaken further in late January due to uncertainties in geopolitical situations and the impact of extreme cold weather on logistics and construction activities [6] - The likelihood of a retail price increase for refined oil products is anticipated, but the expected adjustment range is limited, leading to a cautious market outlook [6] - Overall, it is expected that diesel prices may decline by around 100 CNY/ton in late January, as trading units focus on inventory digestion with low replenishment willingness [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a slight rebound, driven primarily by the correlation with international oil prices and ongoing trade concerns between the US and Europe [1][2]. - The recent adjustments in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations suggest that US rates will remain elevated for a longer period, which supports the USD's relative strength while limiting the potential for a significant pullback against the CAD [2]. - The technical analysis of the USD/CAD exchange rate shows a generally strong upward trend, with key support levels above 1.3800 and significant resistance around 1.3900-1.3920, indicating a range-bound market influenced by oil price fluctuations and US monetary policy expectations [3]. Group 2 - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding trade dynamics and energy demand, which could impact the CAD's performance against the USD [2]. - The interplay between oil price movements and US monetary policy is crucial for the USD/CAD exchange rate, with macroeconomic risks still present, suggesting a likely continuation of the range-bound trading between 1.38 and 1.39 [3]. - Future developments in oil prices and US economic data will be critical in shaping the market's outlook on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the overall USD/CAD exchange rate trajectory [3].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a mild upward trend, influenced by fluctuations in oil prices and adjustments in market expectations regarding major economies' policies [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The Canadian dollar (CAD), as a commodity currency, is closely linked to international oil prices, with Canada being the largest exporter of crude oil to the U.S. [3]. - Recent fluctuations in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which recently fell to around $59.30 per barrel after two days of gains, have indirectly weakened the CAD, providing support for the USD against the CAD [3][4]. - The upward potential of the USD/CAD pair is constrained by uncertainties in U.S.-European trade relations, with new tariff plans and countermeasures being developed [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The USD is supported by stable domestic labor market data, which has delayed market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [4]. - Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated that the urgency for further monetary policy easing is limited until there is clear evidence of inflation moving towards the 2% target [4][5]. - Adjustments in institutional forecasts have pushed back the anticipated timing for the first rate cut, providing a fundamental support for the USD [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The 1.3870 level is identified as a key short-term resistance point for the USD/CAD exchange rate [3]. - If oil prices continue to decline or U.S. economic data remains strong, the exchange rate may test higher resistance levels; conversely, if trade tensions ease or oil demand expectations improve, the CAD may gain rebound momentum [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The USD/CAD exchange rate is likely to continue being influenced by oil market volatility, changes in monetary policy expectations from major economies, and developments in the international trade environment [5]. - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic data and policy movements, which may provide further guidance for exchange rate trends [5].

Group 1 - The overall performance of the US dollar is weak, with the dollar index falling to around 99, leading to decreased investor confidence in dollar assets due to regional tensions [1] - Key variables affecting oil prices in 2026 include OPEC+ production cuts, macroeconomic policy shifts such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and escalating regional political risks that could trigger short-term oil price spikes [1] - The projected core price range for Brent crude oil in 2026 is $55-75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be $50-70 per barrel, with volatility expected to narrow compared to 2025 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The Penghua Oil ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]