Core Viewpoint - The PTA spot prices have been consistently stronger than futures since June, leading to heightened attention from industry chain enterprises, with the PTA basis average value rising by 40% year-on-year as of June 26 [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strengthening of the PTA basis is primarily due to a tight supply-demand structure, with polyester plant operating rates maintaining at 90%, the second-highest level of the year, indicating strong downstream demand [1] - In June, approximately 200,000 tons of PTA were de-stocked, continuing the de-stocking trend from the second quarter, while the main suppliers have slowed down their shipment pace, creating a seller's market [1] - The current PTA social inventory is at a neutral to low level, with tight circulating inventory further supporting the strong PTA basis [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Potential Risks - Despite the current strength of the PTA basis, there are differing opinions on its sustainability, with expectations of potential production cuts in the polyester sector due to profit losses and inventory buildup [2] - Polyester production is expected to be 6.6 million tons in July, with PTA consumption potentially decreasing by 70,000 tons, and further reductions are anticipated in August during the demand off-season [2] - Key variables to monitor include geopolitical changes and oil price fluctuations, as well as the execution of production cuts in the polyester industry and the commissioning progress of new PTA facilities [2] Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Projections - The elasticity of the PTA cost side is also noteworthy, with a near-term strong performance expected due to low inventory supporting the basis and industry chain profits [3] - However, in the long term, the commissioning of new PTA facilities and reduced maintenance plans in the second half of the year, combined with the seasonal demand downturn, may limit the upward price potential of PTA [3] - The supply-demand structure of PX is currently better than that of PTA, and any unexpected maintenance of PX facilities could impact PTA prices positively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment is set for July 1, 2025, with expectations of a price increase due to recent fluctuations in international oil prices [1] Oil Market Trends - In June, international oil prices rose significantly, reaching a peak of $78.85 per barrel for Brent crude due to escalating geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [3] - Following a brief spike, international oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping to $67.17 per barrel, marking a decline of over 16% in just three working days [3] Domestic Fuel Price Changes - Domestic fuel prices saw two increases in June, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 325 yuan and 315 yuan per ton, respectively [3] - As of June 26, 2025, the reference crude oil price indicates a potential increase in domestic fuel prices by 0.28 to 0.32 yuan per liter, with a current increase of 345 yuan per ton [3][4] - The maximum increase in fuel prices during the current adjustment cycle has decreased by 265 yuan per ton compared to earlier projections [4] Future Price Outlook - The cautious market sentiment suggests that while the price increase is expected, it may be limited to around 250 yuan per ton, with a likelihood of small upward adjustments rather than significant declines [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/24 | 2025/6/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 518. 6 | 508. 6 | -10.00 | 成交情况: | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1007. 3 | 1094. 0 | 86. 67 | PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,市场预估原油续 跌,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少,现货基差仍然较强 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2673 | 1. 2960 | 0. 0287 | | | | CFR中国PX | 859 | 849 | -10 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 217 | 263 | 46 | | | | PTA主力 ...

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil prices have dropped by 9%, while Brent crude oil has decreased by 8.5%, indicating a significant decline in the oil market [1] Group 1 - The decline in oil prices is linked to geopolitical developments, particularly Trump's comments regarding Iran and military actions [1] - Trump's statement expresses gratitude towards Iran for notifying the U.S. about attacks on military bases, suggesting a potential shift towards peace [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil experienced a significant decline of 8.00%, currently priced at $67.76 per barrel, amid a moderate response from Trump regarding the Iranian attack [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - WTI crude oil price dropped by 8.00% [1] - Current price of WTI crude oil is $67.76 per barrel [1] Group 2: Political Context - Trump issued a mild statement concerning the Iranian attack [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6][24] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3][4][19] - OPEC+ has announced substantial production increases, but actual output has not met expectations due to compensatory cuts from member countries [8][12] - The rising operational costs for U.S. shale oil production are expected to lead to a decline in U.S. oil output by 2026 [13][16] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas, which could lead to a spike in oil prices if implemented [3][4] - Historical precedents show that threats or actions to close the Strait have previously resulted in significant price increases, with predictions of oil prices reaching $120 per barrel if a closure occurs [5][19] OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ has announced a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day and has extended voluntary cuts until the end of 2026, with plans to gradually restore production starting in 2025 [8][12] - Despite these announcements, actual production increases have been lower than planned, primarily due to compensatory measures from countries like Iraq and the UAE [12] U.S. Shale Oil Production - The operational costs for existing U.S. shale oil wells have risen, with average costs now at $41 per barrel, leading to a forecasted decline in production [13][16] - The EIA predicts a decrease in U.S. oil production from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2025 to 13.3 million barrels per day by Q4 2026 [16] Investment Recommendations - If Iran proceeds with closing the Strait of Hormuz or if other geopolitical tensions escalate, there is a strong possibility of a significant rise in international oil prices [19] - The report estimates that Brent crude oil prices could stabilize between $70 and $80 per barrel, while WTI prices could range from $65 to $75 per barrel under current conditions [19] Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector, such as China National Petroleum and CNOOC, are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic asphalt market is experiencing a stable supply and recovering demand, with price outlook supported by inventory trends and potential consumption recovery in the coming months [1] Supply Side - Recent asphalt production levels in China have slightly decreased but remain stable compared to previous periods, with a total production of 549,000 tons by mid-June, down from the peak in mid-May but still within a comfortable supply range [1] - Independent refineries produced 290,000 tons in mid-June, which, although lower than the May peak, is still relatively high compared to previous years, confirming a trend of increased production [1] Demand Side - The demand for asphalt is gradually recovering, with sales volume reaching 434,000 tons in mid-June, showing a year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [1] - The operating rate for downstream road asphalt remains above 25%, having previously risen to 31%, with expectations for further support in consumption due to seasonal temperature increases and construction activity resuming in northern regions [1] Inventory - Recent trends indicate a shift in domestic asphalt inventory, with factory inventory at 494,000 tons as of June 13, continuing a downward trend since mid-March [1] - Social inventory remains stable around 520,000 tons, with no significant accumulation expected, suggesting a potential inventory reduction in the medium term that could support asphalt prices [1] Profitability - Asphalt production profits in Shandong have seen some recovery in late April to May, maintaining stability in June, influenced by rising crude oil prices and a loose supply environment [1] - The transition between the second and third quarters may see a release in consumption that could boost production margins [1] Basis and Cost - The basis for asphalt, represented by Shandong spot prices, continues to show an upward trend, with short-term corrections not altering the overall upward trajectory [1] - Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical factors, have increased market volatility, with concerns about supply contraction and potential impacts from the Israel-Palestine conflict affecting oil prices [1] Outlook - Asphalt prices are currently stable, with less volatility than crude oil, primarily influenced by oil price movements [1] - The second half of the second quarter will be critical for observing demand recovery, with long-term price opportunities anticipated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China is driven by rising international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. oil inventory levels [1][2][3]. Price Adjustments - Starting from June 17, 2025, the price of gasoline will increase by 260 yuan per ton, and diesel will rise by 255 yuan per ton [1]. - The price increase translates to an increase of 0.20 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.22 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2]. Market Dynamics - The current pricing cycle has seen 12 adjustments, including 5 increases, 2 unchanged, and 5 decreases [2]. - International oil prices have shown a significant upward trend, supported by improved macroeconomic sentiment and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [2][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Despite a general demand for gasoline and diesel, geopolitical factors have led to a strong increase in international oil prices, which in turn has raised domestic fuel prices [4]. - Analysts predict stable gasoline demand due to increased travel during the summer, while diesel demand may decline due to limited outdoor construction activities [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for international oil prices remains strong, influenced by seasonal increases in gasoline consumption and geopolitical tensions affecting supply [6]. - The market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that gasoline and diesel prices may stabilize in the near term due to balanced supply and demand dynamics [5][6].

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