油价在震荡中小幅下跌，因更广泛的金融市场疲软，对伊朗的制裁是放松还是收紧的不确定性挥之不 去。 在其他地方，康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）首席执行官Ryan Lance表示，他认为美国页岩油产量尚未 达到峰值。他补充道，价格持续在50美元左右将导致缓慢下降，但在60美元左右产量将趋于平稳。交易 员一直在关注油价下跌对美国供应影响的迹象。 价格 纽约7月交割的WTI下跌0.2%，收于62.03美元。六月期货周二到期。 布伦特原油下跌0.2%，收于每桶65.38美元。（小晨编译） 自上周以来，油价一直在波动，关于伊朗-美国谈判命运的头条新闻喜忧参半，这可能为更多桶原油重 返预计今年晚些时候供应过剩的市场铺平道路。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正在撤回结束乌克兰和俄罗斯 战争的努力，这增加了全球的不确定性。 BOK Financial Securities交易高级副总裁Dennis Kissler表示："目前，在了解欧佩克、伊朗和俄罗斯的传 奇故事如何发展之前，这只是一条通往原油'无处可去'的道路。" 在中美贸易战缓和后，原油在4月份下跌19%后，本月出现反弹。最近几周几种精炼燃料相对于原油的 溢价飙升，这可 ...

4月30日24时，国内成品油零售价格调整迎来今年第二次搁浅。在未来半个月时间内(4月30日24时至5月 19日24时)，居民驾车出行燃油成本及物流运输燃油成本将保持不变。 据国家发展改革委消息，自2025年4月17日国内成品油价格调整以来，国际市场油价波动运行，按现行 国内成品油价格机制测算，4月30日的前10个工作日平均价格与4月17日前10个工作日平均价格相比，调 价金额每吨不足50元。根据《石油价格管理办法》第七条规定，本次汽、柴油价格不作调整，未调金额 纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。 隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟认为，从成本端来看，本周期内国际原油价格持续下跌，整体拉低成品油 成本；从供需面来看，主营炼厂检修较多，独立炼厂负荷亦低位运行，国内整体供应低位，但原油下跌 利空市场心态，中下游入市积极性较低，观望氛围浓厚，车船成交亦较为保守，对汽油柴油价格形成拖 累，但汽油价格受到"五一"节前备货支撑跌幅小于柴油。 金联创成品油分析师马建彩指出，后市来看，国际市场消息面缺少有力支撑，原油价格反弹乏力，消息 面对国内市场影响受限。节后市场来看，汽油需求支撑减弱，且调价方向存不确定性，业内对后市看空 心态升温，汽油价 ...

Group 1 - The international crude oil market has shown a fluctuating trend during the current pricing cycle, leading to a narrowing of the domestic reference crude oil change rate, with an adjustment amount of 45 yuan/ton, which has not reached the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold [1] - As of April 28, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was calculated at 1.11%, indicating a potential increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 45 yuan/ton, but still below the retail price limit for refined oil [1] - The upcoming OPEC+ production increase and ongoing uncertainties in trade situations are contributing to the pressure on crude oil demand and prices, resulting in a mixed market outlook [1] Group 2 - With one working day remaining before the pricing window opens, the likelihood of a suspension in domestic refined oil price adjustments is high, although an upward adjustment cannot be completely ruled out [2] - If the price adjustment results in a suspension, it will mark the second suspension of refined oil retail price adjustments since 2025, maintaining fuel costs for residents and logistics for the next half month [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations as of April 25, 2025, with Brent and WTI prices at $65.80 and $63.02 per barrel respectively [7][22] - OPEC+ may accelerate the exit from voluntary production cuts in June, raising concerns about supply increases [7] - Kazakhstan's energy minister indicated that national interests would take precedence over OPEC+ interests, further intensifying supply concerns [7] - The market faces multiple uncertainties, including tariffs and geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations [7] Oil Price Summary - As of April 25, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $65.80 per barrel, down $0.46 (-0.69%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $63.02 per barrel, up $0.61 (+0.98%) [22] - Russian Urals crude spot price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude price decreased by $0.32 (-0.51%) to $62.28 per barrel [22] Offshore Drilling Services - As of April 21, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 381, an increase of 1 from the previous week; the number of floating drilling rigs was 141, also up by 1 [26] US Oil Supply - As of April 18, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.02 million barrels per day from the previous week [42] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 483 as of April 25, 2025 [42] - The number of fracturing fleets in the US rose by 5 to 205 as of April 25, 2025 [42] US Oil Demand - As of April 18, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.89 million barrels per day, an increase of 325,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.10%, up 1.8 percentage points [53] US Oil Inventory - As of April 18, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 841 million barrels, an increase of 712,000 barrels (+0.08%) from the previous week [64] - Strategic oil inventory was 397 million barrels, up 468,000 barrels (+0.12%); commercial crude oil inventory was 443 million barrels, up 244,000 barrels (+0.06%) [64] Related Companies - Key companies in the industry include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、供应概况 | | 4 | | 三、需求概况 | | 6 | | 四、库存与估值 | | 8 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | | 9 | | 免责声明 10 | | | 能化板块研发报告 【市场展望】 近期沥青产业链累库速度放缓，2 季度库存水平若能维持低位，对后续 价格存在较强支撑。短期油价受宏观和地缘因素扰动，预计波动较大，中长 期油价仍面临下行压力。沥青单边价格波动弱于原油，在近端供需改善、下 半年供应端缺乏弹性的情况下，预计下行空间有限，以震荡思路对待， BU2506 运行区间预计在 3300-3450。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：区间震荡。 2.套利：沥青-原油价差走弱。 3.期权：如持有多单，可配合卖看涨策略。 风险提示：原油价格波动、宏观政策因素扰动。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 沥青 5 月报 202 ...

化工日报 | 2025-04-25 本周港口库存增加，关注乙烷关税政策动向 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4179元/吨（较前一交易日变动-71元/吨，幅度-1.67%），EG华东市场现货价 4216元/吨（较前一交易日变动-19元/吨，幅度-0.45%），EG华东现货基差（基于2505合约）21元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 特朗普态度缓和后，周四市场对乙烷进口高关税导致装置停车的担忧放缓，EG价格下跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-66美元/吨（环比+3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-227元/吨（环比 +41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为77.5万吨（环比上涨+0.4万吨）；根据隆众每周四 发布的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为68.8万吨（环比上周-1.9万吨）。本周主港计划到港总数19.6万吨，略偏多，主 港发货节奏降低且到货相对稳健，较本周一库存总量回升。当前库存处于近五年季节性中位水平，同时隐性库存 依旧偏高，关注平衡表去库对港口库存的传导。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 整 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices have increased. Shandong's spot prices have risen slightly, and the futures market has strengthened marginally. With low production levels and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall stable inventories and a generally positive trend. The market in the north is tight, while supply in the east and south is relatively ample. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April production schedules. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the short - term outlook is weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to actual inventory levels and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract are recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data - From April 10th to April 16th, the low - end spot prices in East China and Shandong remained unchanged at 3550 yuan/ton and 3330 yuan/ton respectively, and the low - end spot price in Northeast China remained at 3750 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased by 23 yuan to 3278 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract increased by 23 yuan to 132 yuan/ton. The CFR price of South Korean asphalt in East China remained at 465 dollars/ton, and the RMB - denominated price increased by 2 yuan to 4104 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong coker feedstock remained at 4310 yuan/ton [1] 2. Daily Review - Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly. The daily asphalt production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1] 3. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, with tightening crude oil supply and rising oil prices, asphalt prices have increased. Shandong's spot prices have risen slightly, and the futures market has strengthened marginally. With low production levels and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall stable inventories and a generally positive trend. The market in the north is tight, while supply in the east and south is relatively ample. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April production schedules. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the short - term outlook is weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to actual inventory levels and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract are recommended [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a low - level shock. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has marginally rebounded, and the monthly spread has rebounded periodically. The hype of Iran's supply cut is the core reason for this round of strength. Currently, it is mainly based on expected trading. From a configuration perspective, long - term contracts can be partially over - allocated. [3] - The US Treasury has imposed the fourth round of sanctions on Iran this year. This round of sanctions is more precise, and the sanctions on Shandong Luqing and Huizhou Port have been intensified. Sanctions have shifted from path - based to buyer - based, which is an escalation of sanctions. The arrival of Iranian oil has been affected. [3] - The US has also strengthened sanctions on Venezuela. The impact of current policies on Venezuela is neutrally evaluated. [3] - Other fundamentals remain in a periodically improving state. After the spring maintenance, the seasonal start - up of refineries has begun to pick up, and the purchasing demand in the US and Europe has gradually emerged. If the upward driving force shifts from the supply side to the demand side, some positive arbitrage operations can be selectively carried out. [3] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Market Influencing Factors - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's compensation production cut plan has been released. Conservatively assessing the compensation production cut intensity, sources claim that OPEC + may plan a second production increase in May, so the probability of an increase in supply is relatively high [4]. - **Macro**: The macro - environment remains weak, and the turning point of sentiment should be monitored [4]. - **SPR**: The US SPR repurchase plan has stopped. Trump said that the stockpiling step will be restarted in the low - oil - price range [4]. - **Geopolitics**: The US - Russia negotiation continues, and there are periodic conflicts in the Middle East. Overall, there are no new variables [4]. - **Downstream Demand**: The widening of downstream profits has driven the recovery of refinery start - up. Attention should be paid to the purchasing demand brought about by the subsequent increase in refinery start - up [4]. - **Shale Oil**: Last week, the production was 13.57 million barrels per day, and the number of rigs remained unchanged at 486. In the medium - to - long term, the boost to production is limited [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Table - **Production**: From 2023Q1 to 2025Q4, the total production shows an overall upward trend, with fluctuations in some quarters. OPEC production, NGL production, non - OPEC production, OECD production, and non - OECD production also have their own trends and changes [5]. - **Demand**: The total demand also fluctuates within a certain range from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4. OECD demand and non - OECD demand have their own characteristics [5]. - **Call On OPEC**: It shows different values in each quarter from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4, reflecting the demand for OPEC oil [5]. - **Surplus**: The surplus or deficit situation varies in different quarters, with positive and negative values indicating surplus and deficit respectively [5]. 3.3 Sanctions on Iran - As of now, the US has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Iran. The latest one on March 20 targeted buyers of Iranian goods, sanctioning Shandong Luqing Petrochemical, Huizhou Dayawan Huaying Petrochemical Terminal, 8 oil tankers, and 19 entities [7][9]. - Iran's seaborne exports have not decreased significantly. Exports to China have decreased sharply, and some goods have been transferred to floating storage. If the US wants to further reduce Iran's exports, it needs to further escalate sanctions [9]. 3.4 Sanctions on Venezuela - US President Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela and impose new tariffs on Venezuela itself. The US has extended Chevron's operating license for its joint - venture oil company in Venezuela until May 27, 2025 [13]. - Currently, Venezuela's production is about 1 million barrels per day. If tariffs are further increased, production may further decrease, and it may exacerbate the shortage of heavy - oil in the US. However, the short - term impact on the market may be limited [13]. 3.5 OPEC + Compensation Production Cut - On March 20, OPEC + announced the latest compensation plan schedule, which is the first update this year. The future compensation production cut of these countries is about 250,000 barrels per day [15]. - The largest compensation - production - cut countries are Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Considering the easing of US - Russia relations, the actual compensation production cut may be less than expected [15]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - The Riyadh negotiation between the US and Ukraine has ended, mainly discussing whether the Russian president agrees to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative. After Trump's call with Putin, a cease - fire agreement on air infrastructure was reached, but the implementation remains to be seen [19]. - In the Middle East, the US continues to air - strike the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Trump has warned Iran not to support the Houthi rebels. Israel also continues to harass the Gaza area. Currently, there are no major geopolitical variables, but there will be some marginal disturbances [19]. 3.7 Fundamentals - In terms of fundamentals, the seasonal recovery of US refinery start - up continues. The latest refinery start - up rate has reached 86.9%, rising month - on - month. Commercial crude oil inventories continue to accumulate, and the Cushing crude oil inventory has significantly decreased [25]. - In the PADD1 area, the start - up of a major refinery has not recovered, but the overall warming trend of North American refineries continues [25]. 3.8 Spot Market - In the North Sea spot market, the recent discount has gradually improved. The latest CFD and DFL are 1.02 and 0.79 US dollars per barrel respectively, which is in a relatively high - neutral range [26]. 3.9 Spread Situation - As of March 25, the WTI near - term spread is 0.47 US dollars per barrel, and the 1 - 6 spread is 2.4 US dollars per barrel; the Brent near - term spread is 0.63 US dollars per barrel, and the 1 - 6 spread is 2.7 US dollars per barrel; the SC near - term spread is - 2.8 yuan per barrel [33]. 3.10 Positioning Situation - In the week of March 18, WTI long - terms increased by 4,305 lots, short - terms increased by 19,790 lots, and net long - terms decreased by 15,480 lots [49][50]. - In the week of March 18, Brent long - terms increased by 37,100 lots, short - terms decreased by 11,200 lots, and net long - terms increased by 48,310 lots [52][53].