新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-05 绝对价格上行拖累现货升水 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-26.08 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨20元/吨至22790元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨70元/吨至590元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌50元/吨至22660元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于460元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至22760 元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨30元/吨至560元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-03沪锌主力合约开于22330元/吨，收于22180元/吨，较前一交易日下跌105元/吨，全天交易日 成交155440手，较前一交易日减少26261手，全天交易日持仓122728手，较前一交易日增加6114手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22515元/吨，最低点达到22090元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-03，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.74万吨，较上周同期减少-0.14万吨。截止2025-06-03，LME 锌库存为137350吨，较上一交易日减少800吨。 市场分 ...

2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供增需减，反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值低位，有所反弹 | 7 | | 沥青：原油反弹，短线震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期不追空，或阶段性反弹 | 11 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 13 | | 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：短期低位反弹 | 19 | | 尿素：区间震荡 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 25 | | LPG：地缘扰动，成本偏强 | 26 | | PVC：短期不宜追空 | 29 | | 燃料油：日盘跟随原油回弹，短期波动将持续放大 | 31 | | 低硫燃料油：大幅反弹，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时收窄 | 31 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡；10-12反套持有 | 32 | | 短纤：上方 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-29 锌价维持震荡格局 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-20.21 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨100元/吨至22830元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌30元/吨至415元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨170元/吨至22860 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨40元/吨至445元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨110元 /吨至22840元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至425元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-28沪锌主力合约开于22380元/吨，收于22210元/吨，较前一交易日下跌200元/吨，全天交易日 成交162225手，较前一交易日减少180952手，全天交易日持仓123007手，较前一交易日增加1439手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到22485元/吨，最低点达到22200元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-26，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.88万吨，较上周同期减少-0.5万吨。截止2025-05-28，LME 锌库存为143450吨，较上一交易日减少7700吨 ...

检修扰动后锌价冲高回落 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-21.55 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨160元/吨至22730元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨55元/吨至445元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨140元/吨至22690 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨35元/吨至405元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨160元 /吨至22730元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨55元/吨至445元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-27沪锌主力合约开于22185元/吨，收于22330元/吨，较前一交易日上涨135元/吨，全天交易日 成交343177手，较前一交易日增加200438手，全天交易日持仓121568手，较前一交易日增加3048手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到22695元/吨，最低点达到22175元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-28 库存方面：截至2025-05-26，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.88万吨，较上周同期减少-0.5万吨。截止2025-05-27，LME 锌库存为151150吨，较上一交易日减少23 ...

【市场表现】 期债整体上延续窄幅震荡。短期看，一方面期债下跌的风险有限，临近月末央行增加投放也体现了央行 对资金面的呵护，资金面整体持稳，在基本面压力尚存的阶段债市缺乏大幅下跌的基础；另一方面资金 利率也暂未突破式下行，叠加银行负债端存压力，短债利率下行受到明显约束，从期限利差偏低的角度 来看，长债目前吸引力也相对有限，整体债市处于窄幅震荡阶段。目前预计，短期10年期国债利率可能 在1.65%-1.7%区间波动，30年国债利率可能在1.85%-1.95%区间波动。短期增量驱动可能一来自于可能 出现的跨月后资金面转松，二来自于本周将公布的PMI数据，目前预计5月PMI环比可能有小幅好转。 单边策略上建议观望为主，关注高频经济数据和资金面动态。期现策略上，建议关注2509合约上的正套 策略。 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.26%报119.460元，10年期主力合约跌0.11%报108.735元， 5年期主力合约跌0.03%报106.030元，2年期主力合约跌0.02%报102.408元。银行间主要利率债收益率纷 纷上行。截至17：00，30年期国债"23附息国债23"收益率上行0.8bp报1.918 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 降息为何难振债市情绪 ——债市情绪面周报（5 月第 4 周） 报告日期： 2025-05-26 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：短期加强波段交易，待债市选择方向后右侧应对 债市短期难破震荡区间，存款利率调降后银行负债端压力有所提升，大行 资金融出依然偏少，存款流向非银机构促使"钱多"利好债市，而当前债市的 主要关注点可能仍在①5 月 PMI 等经济数据、②供给压力与③资金面松紧， 但超预期因素或趋势性行情较难出现，投资者仍需维持久期，低票息、资金贵 的环境下应加大波段交易的权重。 固收买方观点整体中性偏多。从当前市场买方观点来看，10 家偏多，18 家中性，1 家偏空，其中： ⚫ 国债期货：期货情绪升温 ...

3年期国债收益率走势图 郭晨凯 制图 ◎记者 张欣然 可现实却给他上了一课。年初以来，面对利好消息，短债的价格几乎"纹丝不动"；反而每次遇到利空， 短债的反应却比长期债还要剧烈。短债从"低波稳健"的防御角色，变成了"易伤易动"的高波动品种。 曾被视为"稳健配置"的短久期债券，如今在资金面持续紧平衡与交易情绪波动的夹击下，正让债基经理 们频频"失守"。 短债市场的这一轮调整，不仅打破了过往对其"低风险"资产的固有印象，也给市场参与者敲响了警钟。 在流动性预期尚不明朗的背景下，防御型投资策略也需动态调整，谨慎应对。 短债交易竟成"伤" 春节过后，股市热情高涨，投资者风险偏好明显回升。面对"风往股市吹"的行情，不少债券基金经理开 始感受到来自市场的压力。 在这样的背景下，某公募债券基金经理本想选择一条稳健的道路，即压缩组合久期、增配短期债券和同 业存单——这些通常被视为在收益率上行时较为抗跌的"防御型资产"。"按理说，短债抗跌，风险低， 我只是想在市场不确定的时候守住阵地。"该基金经理说。 按照债券的基本投资逻辑，收益率上行时，债券价格会下跌。而短久期债券由于"存活"时间短，收益率 变动带来的影响相对较小，跌幅也应 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/23 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/16 445 1250 108142 63247 -433.62 40.45 95.0 111.0 31.45 179375 71900 2025/05/19 430 816 108142 61913 -103.15 218.98 95.0 111.0 15.52 174325 67550 2025/05/20 390 979 108142 45738 -23.85 170.67 94.0 110.0 3.16 170750 66450 2025/05/21 265 758 108142 41218 -527.73 57.47 94.0 110.0 14.01 168825 66000 2025/05/22 125 495 108142 31754 -701.34 264.30 92.0 108.0 15.88 166525 68650 变化 -14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the monthly spread, the subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. - For aluminum, with the positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and the alleviation of global trade tensions, the aluminum price rebounds with inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long - short arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2]. - For zinc, attention should be paid to the inflection point from inventory drawdown to accumulation. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage can be continued [5]. - For nickel, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, in the short term, with long and short factors intertwined, the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [7]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May [8]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, in the medium - long term, the price trend is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long cycle, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not significantly decline, the price will still oscillate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot premium decreased by 125, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 221, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,925 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelting plants were eager to sell under high monthly spreads, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 100, and the domestic alumina price increased by 42 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in May did not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be drawn down gently from May to July [2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the import TC increased slightly. The demand at home has general elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear at the end of May or early June [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the沪镍现货 price decreased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 312 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, and the overall demand was weak. The overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic inventory remained stable [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the lead spot premium increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 36,375 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week [8]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot import gain increased by 5,126.89, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some alleviation of long - term ore shortages, but there are still domestic supply disturbances. The demand side has limited elasticity, and the downstream lacks consumption power [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the 553 East China basis decreased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 596 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, there is a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 152 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production increased this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. In the medium - long term, the price may oscillate weakly [13].

2025 年 5 月 22 日 生猪：情绪偏弱，或阶段性去库 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 单 位 价 格 | | 同 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 14600 | | -150 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 14250 | | 0 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 14250 | | 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15290 | | 150 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | 13285 | | -70 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13650 | | -40 ...