Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a 0.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2025, reaching 33.52 billion RMB, which aligns with the company's previous guidance of flat to +5% year-on-year [1][6] - Seasonal factors, such as warmer temperatures in December and a later Chinese New Year in 2026, may impact winter clothing sales and shift some consumer demand [1][3] - The company aims to enhance the service experience for its core SVIP users to maintain consumer loyalty and wallet share, while also considering promotional strategies to attract purchases [1] - The report highlights the importance of shareholder return initiatives in 2026, which could support the company's valuation [1] Revenue and Profitability - The report anticipates a 3.8% year-on-year increase in GMV for Q4 2025, reaching 68.7 billion RMB, with a narrowing gap between GMV growth and revenue growth [2] - The expected gross margin for Q4 2025 is 22.9%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points due to increased investments in user engagement [2] - The non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to be 8.2% for Q4 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Conditions and Policy Impact - The report notes that online retail sales of physical goods in November 2025 grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with a decline in the growth rate for clothing and footwear categories [3] - The central economic work conference indicated that expanding domestic demand will be a priority in 2026, which could benefit the company as it operates in the discretionary consumer goods sector [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 0.1%, 2.6%, and 2.5% to 8.6 billion, 8.8 billion, and 9.1 billion RMB respectively, primarily due to lower gross margin expectations [4][12] - The target price for the company is set at $23.26, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 9x for 2026, which is at a discount compared to the average of comparable companies at 14.6x [4][15]

Core Insights - The article presents the "Top 10 Core Assets for 2026" as voted by millions of members from over 70 countries, highlighting the collective wisdom of global investors in navigating market uncertainties [2][5]. Summary by Categories Core Assets - The selected core assets include: - **Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创)**: Market cap of 6,778 million RMB, focusing on AI and advanced manufacturing [3] - **Tencent (腾讯)**: Market cap of 49,160 million RMB, centered on AI applications [3] - **Alibaba (阿里巴巴)**: Market cap of 24,500 million RMB, involved in AI and cloud computing [3] - **Gold ETF (黄金ETF)**: Market cap of 1 million RMB, categorized under precious metals [3] - **Luoyang Molybdenum (洛阳钼业)**: Market cap of 4,279 million RMB, with no specific industry listed [3] - **China Ping An (中国平安)**: Market cap of 12,400 million RMB, in the financial sector [3] - **Dongfang Caifu (东方财富)**: Market cap of 3,663 million RMB, with no specific industry listed [3] - **Wanhua Chemical (万华化学)**: Market cap of 2,400 million RMB, in the chemical industry [3] - **WuXi AppTec (药明合联)**: Market cap of 1,515 million RMB, in the pharmaceutical sector [3] - **Trip.com Group (携程集团)**: Market cap of 3,250 million RMB, in consumer discretionary [3] Market Context - The investment landscape in China for 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, including fluctuating recovery expectations, geopolitical tensions, and evolving trends in real estate and AI [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of collective intelligence in investment decisions, asserting that the aggregated insights from millions can effectively guide investors through market complexities [5][7]. Performance Metrics - From 2019 to 2025, the "Top 10 Core Assets Index" achieved a cumulative growth of 318.67%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index (+56.2%) and the Hang Seng Index (-0.82%) [11]. - In 2025, the equal-weighted return of the top assets reached 35.1%, again surpassing the performance of major indices [11]. Selection Criteria - The selected companies must meet four key principles: 1. Represent Chinese enterprises with a domestic market focus 2. Align with future economic directions and create long-term value 3. Possess competitive advantages or potential in emerging sectors 4. Have a projected market cap growth of 20% or more in 2026 [10] Individual Company Insights - **Zhongji Xuchuang**: Expected to benefit from a surge in AI-related demand, with a projected market cap growth of 25%-30% [12]. - **Tencent**: Anticipated to see a 25%-30% increase in adjusted net profit, driven by its strong domestic user base and advertising revenue [13]. - **Alibaba**: Forecasted to achieve a 25%-28% stock price increase, supported by its dual focus on AI and consumer markets [14]. - **Gold ETF**: Positioned as a key hedging tool, with a projected 28%-32% growth in fund inflows [15]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum**: Expected to maintain its leading position in the battery materials sector, with a projected net profit of 320-350 million RMB [16]. - **China Ping An**: Anticipated to grow its market cap by 20%-25%, benefiting from the domestic financial market's recovery [17]. - **Dongfang Caifu**: Projected to see a 22%-28% increase in market cap, driven by the growth in wealth management services [18]. - **Wanhua Chemical**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 155-162 million RMB, supported by domestic demand [19]. - **WuXi AppTec**: Positioned as a leader in the ADC field, with significant growth driven by domestic innovation [20]. - **Trip.com Group**: Forecasted to grow revenue by over 25%, capitalizing on the recovery of domestic travel [21]. Conclusion - The selected core assets reflect a strategic alignment with China's economic growth and key sectors, including AI, renewable energy, finance, and healthcare, emphasizing their potential for long-term value creation [22].

双节消费亮点前瞻 20251231 摘要 茅台策略调整：2026 年茅台将保持投放总量稳定，减少高附加值产品 投入，增加飞天茅台供应，旨在挖掘大众市场需求，稳定价格底部，此 举对中长期发展有利。 安琪酵母受益于糖蜜采购成本下降和国内餐饮链改善，叠加其出海优势， 预计 2026 年利润弹性良好，有望跑赢板块。 伊利股份预计 2026 年二三季度奶价迎来拐点，通过产品创新和品牌高 端化实现高质量增长，婴配粉业务保持快速增长，低温业务盈利能力改 善，估值中枢有望修复至 18-20 倍。 李宁公司通过有效的库存管理（库销比 4-5 个月），增加细分垂类门店， 产品创新（超泵胶囊科技跑鞋）和加大营销力度（签约中国奥委会）， 有望实现收入恢复增长，预计 2026 年利润 27 亿元。 两轮车行业龙头雅迪、爱玛估值处于低位，安全边际较高。新国标执行 力度存在不确定性，春季动销数据是判断行业拐点的关键。 家电补贴政策续期，总金额 2,500 亿人民币，AI 眼镜被纳入补贴范围， 汽车报废或置换更新补贴方式改变，利好相关领域。预计 2025 年国内 智能眼镜出货量达 450 万台，同比增长 78%。 生猪养殖行业能繁母猪产能持 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Japanese consumer sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with Black Friday promotions boosting consumption, but duty-free sales showing negative growth [1][3] - Consumer confidence in Japan has improved significantly, with the consumer confidence index rising to 37.5 in November, the highest since April 2024 [2][9] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since 1995, indicating a shift towards normalizing monetary policy [2][11] Macroeconomic Summary - The consumer confidence index increased by 1.7 points from October to November, with notable improvements in perceptions of overall living conditions and income growth expectations [2][9] - November's core CPI remained at 3.0%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 44 consecutive months, while the overall CPI for goods rose by 4.0% [2][11] - The actual wage in October contracted by 0.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's 1.3% [2][9] Industry Summary - Black Friday promotions have become a key driver for retail, with companies leveraging exclusive member discounts and early online sales to attract customers [3][15] - Domestic consumers are exhibiting frugal spending habits, focusing on value for money, which has led to a contraction in daily expenditures [3][15] - Duty-free sales have turned negative, primarily due to a decline in high-value goods, although consumables like cosmetics and food continue to grow at double-digit rates [3][15] Essential Companies - In the essential goods retail sector, November same-store sales for PPIH, Aeon, and 7-Eleven increased by 6.9%, 6.3%, and 2.7% respectively, driven by higher average transaction values [4][18] - Welcia and Matsukiyo Cocokara reported same-store sales growth of 4.1% and 3.6% respectively, with customer traffic increasing slightly [4][20] - The beverage sector saw a decline in sales for Suntory and Asahi, with Asahi's sales dropping by 21% due to a cyberattack affecting operations [4][21] Optional Companies - The restaurant sector performed well, with notable same-store sales growth for various chains, including Sally's and Skylark, with increases of 19.0% and 8.9% respectively [5][27] - Clothing sales also showed strong performance, with same-store sales for companies like Shimamura and Uniqlo increasing by 16.0% and 7.6% respectively, driven by seasonal demand [5][29] - Department store sales reached 521.4 billion yen in November, a 0.9% increase year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of growth [5][34] Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector saw most stocks rise from November 28 to December 30, with the service industry and food and beverage sectors increasing by 4.3% and 2.8% respectively [6] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with optimistic profit outlooks, such as Mercari and Kirin Holdings, which have shown strong operational performance [6][6]

2025年底，高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、瑞银、汇丰、德勤等多家头部外资组织陆续发布2026年商场 展望，纷繁传递出对我国股票商场的活跃预期。 外资组织的看多立场并非根据短期博弈，而是建立在企业盈余添加提速、微观方针协同发力及人民币增 值等逻辑之上。外资组织普遍以为，驱动我国股票商场上涨的核心动力，正从2025年的"估值修正"转向 2026年的"盈余生长"。 值得一提的是，2025年外资继续扫货我国财物。华泰证券发布的最新陈述显现，截至12月20日，2025年 以来全球出资于我国财物的ETF累计取得831亿美元的资金净流入。就职业分布来看，科技板块获外资 流入最多，到达95亿美元。 看多逻辑从"估值"转向"盈余" 外资组织研判，2026年我国股市将进入由基本面主导的新阶段。 事实上，外资组织对我国上市公司的盈余猜测普遍上调。 12月22日，高盛研究部首席我国股票战略分析师刘劲津及团队发布最新陈述，猜测我国股票商场到2027 年底有望实现38%的涨幅。 高盛估计，这一涨幅的首要驱动力来自企业盈余添加，2026年和2027年我国企业盈余将分别添加14%和 12%。此外，高盛还指出，上市公司海外营收添加估计将推进M ...

（2）数据显示，截至2025年11月末，全国165家公募机构（含150家基金管理公司及15家持牌资管机构）合计管理规模 37.02万亿元，首次站上37万亿元台阶。自4月底以来，公募基金规模连续八个月刷新纪录，先后跨越34万亿、35万亿、36 万亿及37万亿元关口，年内增幅超3.9万亿元，行业扩容势头保持强劲。 一、交易提示 国泰、中欧、长城、方正富邦等公募陆续召开2026年度策略会，各方观点交集明确：A股有望告别单一估值修复，进入盈 利与估值共振的新阶段；科技仍是最具持续性的核心赛道，消费复苏、企业出海、高股息防御等支线亦将交织出结构性机 会，明年投资图景整体积极。 12月29日,A股三大指数早盘冲高回落,午后震荡走低,截止收盘,沪指涨0.04%报3965.28点,连续九日走高,深成指跌0.49%报 13537.1点,创业板指跌0.66%报3222.61点,科创50指数涨0.04%报1346.32点;沪深两市成交额2.14万亿,全市场超3300只个股下 跌。 二、基金要闻 （1）12月29日新发基金共有6只，主要为股票型基金和债券型基金，其中广发上证科创板芯片ETF募集目标金额达80.00亿 元；基金分红30 ...

本报记者 昌校宇 中欧基金权益专户投委会主席、基金经理王培预计，2026年或迎来估值演绎的下半场，企业盈利有望成 为股价的核心驱动因素。王培分析称："当前市场正处于基本面拐点，上市公司营收端的修复动能持续 增强，叠加PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）回正预期增强，企业在2026年实现盈利增长值得期待。" 方正富邦基金首席投资官汤戈认为，2026年A股上市公司盈利增速和ROE（净资产收益率）水平有望继 续修复，业绩的增长将消化部分估值压力，使市场上涨的基础更为扎实。 科技投资成共识 科技仍然是各家公募机构关注度最高的投资主线，特别是在"AI投资逻辑将从基础设施建设向实际应用 场景深度扩散"上形成了共识。 近日，国泰基金、中欧基金、长城基金、方正富邦基金等公募机构相继召开2026年度投资策略会，分析 市场走势。 尽管各家公募机构视角各异、表述不同，却也存在共识：2026年A股市场有望从估值修复主导，逐步转 向盈利与估值双重驱动的新阶段；科技仍是贯穿中长期的核心主线，同时消费复苏、企业"出海"等多条 脉络也将交织出丰富的结构性机遇，共同描绘出一幅积极向好的投资图景。 业绩有望增长 回顾2025年，估值扩张是A股市场上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among various public fund institutions is that the A-share market in 2026 is expected to transition from valuation-driven growth to a dual-driven phase of profitability and valuation, with technology remaining a core investment theme alongside opportunities in consumer recovery and corporate globalization [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Outlook - In 2025, valuation expansion was a key driver for the A-share market's rise, but in 2026, multiple public fund institutions anticipate a shift towards profitability as the main engine for stock performance [2] - Longcheng Fund's equity investment manager Su Junyan believes that the market's upward momentum will gradually shift from a single valuation drive to a dual drive of "profitability + valuation" [2] - Zhongou Fund's equity committee chairman Wang Pei expects 2026 to mark the second half of valuation dynamics, with corporate profitability becoming the core driving factor for stock prices [2] Group 2: Technology Investment - Technology remains the most focused investment theme among public fund institutions, particularly with a consensus on the expansion of AI investment logic from infrastructure to practical application scenarios [3] - Fangzheng Fubang Fund's Wu Hao highlights that AI industry chain investment logic will shift from infrastructure (training side) to application (inference side), focusing on areas like optical modules and copper cable connections [3] - Longcheng Fund's managers foresee opportunities in solid-state batteries and commercial aerospace breakthroughs in 2026, indicating a balanced tech market rather than a single hot spot [3] Group 3: Structural Opportunities - Consumer recovery is expected to present transformative investment opportunities in 2026, driven by anticipated improvements in residents' income and a recovery in consumer goods prices [4] - Zhongou Fund's mixed asset group leader Deng Xinyu notes that Chinese companies' global expansion capabilities are increasing, with those having higher overseas exposure showing significantly better ROE [4] - Fangzheng Fubang Fund's Qiao Peitao emphasizes that "going global" will be a major direction for the next decade, helping quality companies overcome domestic growth bottlenecks [4]

Core Viewpoint - Major foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market for 2026, shifting their focus from "valuation repair" in 2025 to "profit growth" in 2026, driven by accelerating corporate earnings, macro policy support, and RMB appreciation [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, with corporate earnings expected to grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027 [4]. - UBS sets the target for the Hang Seng Tech Index at 7100 points and the MSCI China Index at 100 points by the end of 2026, indicating significant upside potential [4]. - HSBC forecasts the Shanghai Composite Index to reach 4500 points, the CSI 300 Index to 5400 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index to 16000 points by the end of 2026, driven primarily by corporate earnings growth rather than valuation increases [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Foreign institutions highlight structured investment opportunities, particularly in technology innovation, with a focus on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing [8]. - Traditional industries are also attracting foreign investment, with expectations of valuation recovery and improved profitability in state-owned enterprises [8]. - The influx of foreign capital is primarily directed towards high-quality assets, including technology leaders and high-dividend stocks, emphasizing value investment [8][10]. Group 3: Foreign Capital Inflow - Since the beginning of 2025, global investments in Chinese assets have seen a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with the technology sector receiving the most significant inflow of $9.5 billion [10]. - Active foreign capital is expected to return to the Chinese market, with institutions like Citigroup maintaining an "overweight" rating on China while reducing exposure to other Asian emerging markets [10][12]. - The anticipated return of active funds is supported by improving corporate fundamentals, a weaker dollar, and the attractiveness of RMB assets [11][12].

Group 1 - The tourism and hotel sector experienced a low opening but saw a rebound, with an overall increase of 1.06% by 11:00 AM, and 24 out of 39 stocks rising, including significant gains from Xiyu Tourism (9.99%), Xi'an Tourism (9.96%), and Tibet Tourism (6.96%) [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of large orders amounting to 91.54 million yuan, with 19 stocks experiencing net inflows, including Xi'an Tourism (63.93 million yuan), China Duty Free Group (40.20 million yuan), and Xiyu Tourism (19.66 million yuan), all exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflow [1] - Guohai Securities suggests that the stabilization of the domestic pandemic will positively impact consumer recovery, particularly in discretionary consumption sectors such as hotels, dining, and tourism, which may further boost duty-free consumption, especially in offshore duty-free [1] Group 2 - Guohai Securities recommends focusing on leading companies benefiting from the gradual recovery of discretionary consumption, including Songcheng Performance, ShouLai Hotel, and the duty-free industry leader China Duty Free Group, as well as Suning.com, which has a strong online and offline integration [1]