豆粕周报 20250616 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 美国生柴政策利好，美豆及连粕震荡走高 主要观点 本周豆粕继续反弹。 成本端，6月USDA报告乏善可陈，其中美豆新作及南美大豆旧作均未做调整，报告影响呈中性。市场仍关注美豆 出口及新作生长情况，上周美豆出口净销售录得11.9万吨，虽符合预期但环比大幅减少；叠加近期美豆产区天气 尚可，美豆总体承压；不过美国生柴政策大幅提高未来两年掺混量，压榨需求提升刺激美豆震荡收涨。 国内，5月大豆进口1392万吨，大豆大量到港支撑油厂开机率回升至正常水平，豆粕现货供应宽松，同时近期下游 成交及提货旺盛，对豆粕现货提供支撑；另外油厂大豆及豆粕进入累库周期，大豆库存610.29万吨，较上周增加 27.41万吨；豆粕库存38.25万吨，较上周增加8.45万吨。 策略：6月USDA报告影响中性，不过生柴政策利好刺激短期美豆震荡偏强；国内5-7月大豆供应充足，油厂开机恢 复正常，豆粕现货供应整体宽松，而当前下游提货旺盛，现货表现震荡；而四季度油厂采购开启，巴西大豆升贴 水震荡走升推动连粕进口成本；中长 ...

中辉期货表示，马棕榈油5月前30日出口表现强劲，印度5月棕榈油进口环比大幅放量叠加5月30日起调 低油脂进口关税，马来B20政策试点推广等利多市场看多人气。受原油价格上涨及美生柴刺激，隔夜棕 榈油期价大幅反弹，考虑累库周期，8500元以上继续追多需注意仓位控制管理。 目前来看，棕榈油行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于棕榈油后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 6月16日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘红。其中，棕榈油期货主力合约开盘报8170.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，棕榈油主力最高触及8482.00元，下方探低8140.00元，涨幅达 3.76%。 华联期货指出，SPPOMA数据显示，2025年6月1-10日马棕产量减少17.24%。ITS、SGS和AmSpec数据 显示，马来西亚2025年6月1-10日棕榈油出口量较上月同期分别增加26.4%、32.69%和8.07%。6月的马 棕产量和出口数据需重点关注。美生柴政策大幅好于预期，利好美豆油，带动国内油脂跟涨。预计国内 油脂短期或震荡偏强。操作上，建议棕榈油09支撑位参考7800附近。 正信期货分析称，中东局势紧张导致国际 ...

2025年06月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国内油脂表现或弱于国际油脂 | 2 | | 豆粕：生物柴油政策利多，连粕跟随美豆偏强 | 5 | | 豆一：豆类市场偏强，跟随补涨 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 9 | | 棉花：关注外部市场影响 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：梅雨季利空释放 | 11 | | 生猪：等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 豆油：国内油脂表现或弱于国际油脂 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,140 | 涨跌幅 1.62% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,414 | 涨跌幅 3.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；成本支撑，大跌概率小，总体震荡偏强，区间950-1150美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、南美大豆收割接近完成，现货抛压较大 | | 2、美豆播种顺利，暂无大面积干旱威胁 | | 利多因素 | | 1、生柴政策添加量超预期，且限制进口，利于美豆内需 | | 2、旧作平衡表偏紧，市场对ENSO中性状态下美国大豆产区天气干旱的担忧较强 | | 3、种植面积可能低于预期 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 02 资料来源：同花顺、钢联、国泰君安期货研 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 15 日 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月超预期增产利空逐步被市场消化，短期矛盾不明显，跟随原油、中加及中美关系 影响下的油脂板块震荡筑底为主，棕榈油 09 合约周涨 0.37%。周五晚上跟随美豆油大幅上涨，下周一预 计保持上行势头。 豆油：豆系市场驱动不明显，供应问题淡化，但中美缓和给美豆市场带来利多情绪，同时现货端有储 备消息扰动，豆油 09 合约周涨 0.62%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月产量超预期恢复提前带来 200 万吨的库存水平，印尼虽一季度库存维持低位，但 4 月库存有望随出口大减而累至 300 万吨以上，故二季度印马产地库存有恢复至 550 万吨的正常水平，因 此基本面看在至三季度产地报价可能还会出现松动以进一步释放压力。虽暂维持基本面有压力尚未释放的 判断，但下跌过程中存在较强支撑，资金对于棕榈油的多配基于宏观配置、油品对冲、提前布局下半年行 情等考虑 ...

中东战火引爆油价！极端情况下原油会冲向130美元？美国生柴政策远超市场预期，棕榈油还要涨多 少？纯碱、豆粕、苯乙烯、甲醇等热门品种需要关注的重点有哪些？点击阅读文章。 相关链接 品种交易逻辑 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 专题报告 2025 年 6 月 12 日 第一部分 摘要 近期棕榈油盘面日内波动增加，一方面受美国生柴政策预期反复、印度降税以 及棕榈油基本面边际弱化等油脂自身方面的因素影响，另一方面中美谈判预期变化 以及原油等宏观外围因素也对盘面造成扰动，但棕榈油基本维持在区间震荡当中。 回归到自身基本面上看，棕榈油产地的情况仍是我们关注的重点。进入增产期，产 地产量恢复情况如何，是否仍存在卖压，以及印尼的生柴执行情况，能否顺利执行 等都将对棕榈油的供需格局和后期的盘面走势产生较大的影响。本文分析了棕榈油 产地的几个要点，以期对后市盘面进行展望。 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： : liuqiannan_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 1 / 8 关于棕榈油产地情况的几个要点 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 基本面情况 一、 马棕产量恢复较好，现货价震荡偏弱运行 6/11 日公布的 MPOB 数据显示马棕 5 月期末库存累库略不及市场至 199 万吨，环比增 6.65%。其中产量增 5.05%至 177 万 ...

李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to close at 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to close at 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2490 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.47% [4][7]. - Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and smooth sowing progress, combined with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy leading to a decline in US soybean oil, caused US soybeans to close lower in a volatile manner. In China, the oil mill crushing volume continued to rise, the bean meal inventory gradually increased, the supply became more abundant, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed had good demand, combined with the recovery of the aquaculture industry and the expectation of tightened imports, rapeseed meal showed strong performance; the Dalian bean meal had support from far - month expectations and was driven by rapeseed meal, so it closed slightly higher in a volatile manner [4][7]. - Affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil broke through the recent support level. With the US soybean sowing progress over 80% and good weather conditions conducive to the end of the sowing season, US soybeans declined in a volatile manner. In China, the increase in the oil mill crushing rate led to more supply, putting pressure on the spot price to fall; the strengthening of rapeseed meal, the non - purchase of new - season US soybeans for the time being, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations provided support for the Dalian bean meal. Overall, the Dalian bean meal may move in a volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans dropped 5 to 441 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.12%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 7 to 456 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.51%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 52.16 to 95.29 yuan per ton; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the bean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 65 to 331 yuan per ton; the East China bean meal spot price fell 40 to 2860 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.38%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 76 to - 88 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 25, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 76%, lower than the market expectation of 78%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be 65 - 75mm, slightly higher than the average. As of the week of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.49 tons, and the export net sales increased 14.6 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 4433 tons, and the cumulative export sales volume was 4846 tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans during the week, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 2248 tons. As of the week of May 23, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [8][9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 24, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvesting progress was 99.5%. Anec expected Brazil's May soybean exports to reach 1403 tons. As of the week of May 28, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 80.7%, and the dry and less - rainy climate in the next two weeks is conducive to the end of the harvesting work [9][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of the week of May 23, the main oil mill soybean inventory decreased 26.2 tons to 560.63 tons, the bean meal inventory increased 52 tons to 20.69 tons, the unexecuted contract decreased 69.84 tons to 335.4 tons, and the national port soybean inventory decreased 8.3 tons to 675.3 tons. As of the week of May 30, the national daily average bean meal trading volume was 8.258 tons, the daily average提货量 was 18.608 tons, the main oil mill crushing volume was 226.82 tons, and the feed enterprise bean meal inventory days were 5.99 days [10][11]. Industry News - Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.720 billion tons and corn production to be 1.327 billion tons [12]. - In the fourth week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipments were 1115.43 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 8.96% year - on - year; the cumulative bean meal shipments were 170.46 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 3.44% year - on - year [12][13]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean crushing volume decreased 7.2% month - on - month, and the rapeseed crushing volume decreased 10.27% month - on - month [13]. - From May 19 to May 23, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil was 605.05 reais per ton [13]. - As of May 25, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 257 tons, soybean imports were 1269 tons, bean meal imports were 1732 tons, and rapeseed imports were 632 tons [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to slightly decline to 4870 tons [15]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is lowered by 1% to 1800 tons, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% [16]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is 620 tons, supported by long - term weather prospects [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the bean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional bean meal spot price, the bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean sowing progress, the US soybean export - related data, the US oil mill crushing profit, the bean meal weekly average trading volume, the bean meal weekly average提货量, the port soybean inventory, the oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume, and the oil mill crushing rate [18][20][23][24] etc.

期货热点追踪 生柴政策利空突袭！美豆油跳水拖累棕榈油走低，这次棕榈油期货会跌到哪里？ 相关链接 ...