1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July and the positive impact of overseas biodiesel policies, domestic oils and fats are expected to show a differentiated short - term trend. Soybean oil is expected to be strong, while rapeseed oil and palm oil may fluctuate repeatedly [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: Weather forecasts indicate less rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains in the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth. The US biodiesel policy is long - term positive for US soybean oil demand, Brazil has raised the biodiesel blending ratio as expected, and the implementation of Indonesia's B40 is going well, all of which are positive for domestic oils and fats [6]. - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%. Reuters survey predicts that the inventory in July will be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; production is expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June. High - frequency data shows increased production and decreased exports in July, and the market expects a high probability of inventory build - up. Attention should be paid to the July MPOB report [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased slightly but remains at a historically high level. The trade relationship between China and Australia has improved, and China may import rapeseed from Australia later, which requires attention [6]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for palm oil 01 be around 8,500, and for soybean oil 01 around 8,000. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Outlook**: Key points to watch include biodiesel policies of various countries, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may show a differentiated short - term trend [8]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Market - Last week, oils and fats fluctuated strongly, mainly due to domestic enterprises exporting soybean oil to India [17]. - The soybean - palm oil spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historical low; the rapeseed - palm oil spread fluctuated weakly; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread fluctuated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for all [20]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: According to the June MPOB report, Malaysia's crude palm oil production in June was 1.6923 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48%; palm oil imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%; palm oil exports were 1.2594 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%; and the ending inventory was 2.0306 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41%. The report is neutral to bearish [33]. - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: As of August 1, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,300 tons, or 2.69%. Year - on - year, it decreased by 8,600 tons, or 0.76% [65]. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: As of August 1, 2025, the rapeseed inventory in major coastal oil mills was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week [68]. - **Domestic palm oil**: As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, or 5.41%. Year - on - year, it increased by 3,400 tons, or 0.59% [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - No specific demand - side analysis content other than showing the volume charts of various oils and fats is provided 3.6 Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.41% and a year - on - year increase of 0.59% [65]. - As of August 1, 2025, coastal major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons (down 21,000 tons from last week), rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons (up 11,000 tons from last week), and unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons (down 6,000 tons from last week) [68]. 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of August 8, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the August shipment was - 204 yuan/ton [73].

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating between 8806.00 and 9018.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.18% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for palm oil opened at 8808.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 9018.00 CNY/ton during the trading session [1] - The market is showing a strong performance with a general upward trend in palm oil prices [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures indicates that the macroeconomic environment is weakening, and with OPEC+ agreeing to a significant production increase in September, the palm oil market may face downward pressure [1] - Ningzheng Futures notes that typhoon weather has delayed palm oil shipments to East China, leading to a slight decrease in domestic commercial inventory and a minor recovery in the soybean-palm oil price spread [1] - Zhonghui Futures highlights that policies in Indonesia and Malaysia favor palm oil consumption, with buying demand from China and India, suggesting a bullish outlook for the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple agricultural product futures, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, presenting different views and trading strategies for each based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the next two weeks, it is expected to be in a large - range oscillation due to the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. The main contract range is [2980, 3040] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also in a large - range oscillation with multiple long and short factors. The main contract range is [2620, 2750]. Attention should be paid to rapeseed planting weather, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The market outlook is bullish in the long - term, but there may be short - term adjustments. In July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil, which may suppress short - term prices. The main contract range is [8600, 8950] [1]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. Although the valuation is low, it is necessary to be cautious when short - selling. Consider gradually taking profit on previous short positions. The main contract range is [13400, 13700] [1]. - **Jujube**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. After the price fills the gap, there is significant upward pressure. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound driven by macro - sentiment. The main contract range is [10525, 11275] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. In the short - term, there is support for the price, and the near - month contract is difficult to break through downward. In the medium - and long - term, pay attention to the intensity of capacity reduction. Consider gradually taking profit on near - month short positions and establishing long positions on far - month contracts after the spot price stabilizes. The main contract range is [13950, 14350] [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, up 10.60 million tons week - on - week and 22.85 million tons year - on - year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 645.59 million tons, up 3.35 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, up 4.47 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2977.71 yuan/ton, up 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [2]. - **Factors**: The neutral climate forecast and smooth US soybean planting weather, along with the inventory accumulation period in China until the end of September, contribute to weak fundamentals. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, down 2.5 million tons week - on - week, and national rapeseed meal inventory was 66.54 million tons, down 1.33 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2658.42 yuan/ton, down 30.53 yuan or 1.14% [4]. - **Factors**: The recovery of global rapeseed production, high domestic inventory, and low import due to high tariffs support the price. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed and low spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal put pressure on the price [1]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, up 2.41 million tons week - on - week and 10.88 million tons year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8990 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.03% [7]. - **Factors**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are bullish for consumption, but the possible inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. Cotton - **Production**: In the US, the new cotton growth is good despite slightly worse soil moisture. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit are expected to increase, with the national average yield per unit expected to rise by 2.5% and the output to reach over 7.4 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently [12]. - **Price**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 13585 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.48% from the previous day. The spot price was 15270 yuan/ton, down 288 yuan or 1.85% [9]. - **Factors**: Weak US cotton exports and reduced domestic demand due to slow replenishment of downstream products lead to a bearish outlook, but low valuation makes short - selling cautious [1]. Jujube - **Production**: The new - season jujube growth is good, and the expected production reduction is lower than previously thought [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, down 51 tons week - on - week, but still higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10920 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan or 2.10% from the previous day [13]. - **Factors**: The weak fundamentals, limited implementation of the floor - price purchase order, and low demand in the off - season make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - term, the accelerated出栏 of second - fattened pigs and partial culling of sows by large farms may increase supply. In the medium - term, the increase in the number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 indicates potential growth in出栏 in the second half of the year [18]. - **Price**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14055 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% [16]. - **Factors**: The rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs drives some second - fattening speculation, providing support for the near - month contract. However, high long - term capacity requires attention to capacity reduction [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline. The market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] - Negative factors include the potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariff hikes on the world, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas leading to high yield expectations, and the weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate being higher than expected [5] - Positive factors are the support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight balance in the old - crop balance sheet, and the planting area being slightly lower than expected [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices declined due to good precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Next week, key points to watch are the US tariff hikes on other countries and the weather in the main US producing areas [7] - This week, US soybean meal prices fluctuated at a low level, mainly due to the unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage [11] - This week, US soybean oil prices rose first and then fell. On one hand, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas pressured soybean prices; on the other hand, the large - scale unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage positions led to a decline in oil prices and an increase in meal prices [14][15] - As of the week ending July 25, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel. The purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.81 per bushel and was falling. As of July 31, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel and was falling [18][21][23] - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 116.79 reais per bag. As of August 1, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 139.04 reais per bag [26][28] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas continued to improve, with the drought rate at 14%, compared to 17% last week [31] - In the next two weeks, the temperature in central US will be lower than normal, and precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas will be slightly less. Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is normal but on the low side, and precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal [33][35][38] - As of July 25, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [42] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of July 25, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.66 per bushel, up from $2.2 last week [45] - The weekly US soybean export volume was 499,600 tons, up from 303,200 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 409,700 tons, up from 377,000 tons last week [47][49] - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 349,100 tons, up from 103,400 tons last week. The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 429,400 tons, up from 238,800 tons last week [51][53] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [55] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.47, approaching the La Nina range [58] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [60][62] - As of July 29, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,700 contracts, compared to a net long position of 6,200 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 83,300 contracts, up from 72,500 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 112,900 contracts, up from 103,700 contracts last week [66][68][70]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable for the vegetable oil market, which may support the prices of CBOT soybeans and U.S. soybean oil. Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The current situation of palm oil is that Malaysia has a high inventory while Indonesia has a decreasing inventory. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but the export data of Malaysian palm oil shows weak demand. The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Affected by the current situation of weak supply and demand, rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review In July, the trends of oils and fats were divergent. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range oscillation. The U.S. biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan boosted the prices of palm oil and international oils, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations put pressure on rapeseed oil prices [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits**: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel blending rules for 2026 - 2027 are favorable for the industrial demand of domestic oils. The demand for soybean oil in biofuels is increasing, and the future domestic crushing demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to grow. The export tax cuts in Argentina may stimulate soybean exports, and the high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans support the price of soybean oil. Although the soybean oil inventory is currently high, the seasonal inventory inflection point is approaching in August, which also supports the price [10][13][15]. - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand Pattern is Loose**: In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July was not ideal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of high inventory and high production in the third quarter. In Indonesia, the implementation of the B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [16][17][24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Continues the Oscillation Pattern**: The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, making ICE rapeseed prices strong. The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not ended, and the trend of reducing rapeseed imports and increasing rapeseed oil imports is expected to continue. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation [20][22][24]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The high - inventory and high - production pattern of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean import in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the cost of imported soybeans is increasing, so there is an upward space for soybean oil [2][3][12] - The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, and it lacks upward momentum [3][16][24] - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern due to the current situation of weak supply and demand [3][20][24] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In July, the trends of oils and fats were differentiated. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range shock [9] - The U.S. biodiesel policy is beneficial to the consumption of vegetable oils, and the increase in U.S. soybean oil drives up the international oil prices. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan boosts the palm oil price, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations puts pressure on the rapeseed oil price [9] 3.2. Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1. U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits - The U.S. biodiesel policy is beneficial to the industrial demand of domestic oils and fats. The demand for domestic soybean crushing in the U.S. is expected to increase, which supports the CBOT soybean and U.S. soybean oil prices [10][12] - Argentina's reduction of export withholding tax on soybeans and their by - products may stimulate exports. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued levy of tariffs on U.S. soybeans in China increase the cost of imported soybeans in China and support the soybean oil price [12] - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China decreased slightly compared with the previous week and the same period last year. With the arrival of August, the seasonal inventory inflection point is coming, which strongly supports the soybean oil price [15] 3.2.2. Loose Supply - Demand Pattern of Palm Oil - In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July were not ideal. It is expected that the pattern of high inventory and high production will continue in the third quarter, and the supply - demand pattern will become looser [16] - Indonesia's B40 plan is being implemented as scheduled, and the new industrial consumption demand of palm oil is expected to be strong, which supports the price. However, overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [17][23][24] 3.2.3. Rapeseed Oil Continues the Shock Pattern - The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, so the ICE rapeseed has been running strongly recently [18][20] - The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market [20] - The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not concluded, and the trend of reducing rapeseed import and increasing rapeseed oil import is expected to continue. The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal oil mills has increased slightly, but the de - stocking process is expected to continue, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern [22] 3.3. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the tight supply expectation of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the increase in import costs, there is an upward space for soybean oil [2][3][23] - The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, and it lacks upward momentum [3][16][24] - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern due to the current weak supply and demand situation [3][20][24]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rate decreased, and the weather forecast indicated potential high - temperature stress in the southwest, supporting the U.S. soybean futures price. The export outlook of U.S. soybeans improved, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. In China, the emphasis on soybean meal reduction and the loose supply pattern led to a decline in the Dalian Commodity Exchange meal futures price. However, due to trade tariff uncertainties, the global soybean - related prices are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, limiting the further decline of soybean meal prices [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. Indonesia's latest fundamental data is favorable, and the expected increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will boost palm oil export demand and support its price. With the support of biodiesel policies in various countries, the medium - and long - term price center of oils is expected to slowly move up [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with declines of - 0.27%, - 1.85%, and - 3.15% respectively. The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased, while the peanut closing price increased by 0.29%. There were changes in spreads and price - to - spreads compared to the previous values [1]. - **International Futures**: In the international futures market, the BMD palm oil price increased by 0.33%, while the CBOT soybean, CBOT U.S. soybean oil, and CBOT U.S. soybean meal prices decreased by - 0.32%, - 0.71%, and - 0.53% respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Basis**: Domestic spot prices of soybean oil in Tianjin and Guangzhou increased slightly, while the 24° palm oil price in Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou decreased. The prices of soybean meal in Nantong and rapeseed meal in Nantong increased, while the price of soybean meal in Dongguan decreased. There were corresponding changes in spot basis [1]. - **Spreads**: The spot spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, showed certain changes [1]. Import and Crushing Profit - Import and crushing profits of different oilseeds and oils, including Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, U.S. West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseeds, changed compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 decreased compared to the same period last month, with a 15.22% decrease according to Amspec and a 9.2% decrease according to ITS [2].

Report Title - Policy and fundamentals are intertwined, and the oscillation of oils and fats continues [1][2][8] Core Views - Palm oil is in a stage of oscillating upward, and the price center is expected to rise in the later period. The p2509 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. [3] - Soybean oil is prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The y2509 contract has resistance at the price of 18,400. [3] - Rapeseed oil is also prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The 01509 contract has resistance at the price of 9,800. [3] Week - on - Week Data Changes DCE Palm Oil - 01 contract: The closing price this week was 8,104.0, down 14 from last week, a decline of 0.17%. The 1 - 5 spread was 366.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 4.69%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 7,738.0, up 4 from last week, an increase of 0.05%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 406.0, up 20 from last week, a change of - 4.69%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,144.0, down 16 from last week, a decline of 0.20%. The 9 - 1 spread was 40.0, down 2 from last week, a decline of 4.76%. [9] DCE Soybean Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 8,928.0, down 4 from last week, a decline of 0.04%. The 1 - 5 spread was 270.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 6.25%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 8,658.0, up 14 from last week, an increase of 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 278.0, up 42 from last week, a change of - 13.12%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,936.0, down 28 from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The 9 - 1 spread was 8.0, down 24 from last week, a decline of 75.00%. [9] CZCE Rapeseed Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 9,401.0, down 108 from last week, a decline of 1.14%. The 1 - 5 spread was 91.0, down 38 from last week, a change of 11.00%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 9,310.0, down 70 from last week, a decline of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 147.0, up 59 from last week, a change of - 27.50%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 9,457.0, down 129 from last week, a decline of 1.35%. The 9 - 1 spread was 56.0, down 21 from last week, a change of 22.46%. [9] International Market Analysis Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Malaysia: From July 1 - 20, according to ITS, palm oil exports decreased by 3.5%; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 7.3%. The production in the first and middle of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. [13] - Indonesia: In May, palm oil and refined product exports reached 2.86 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous month. The production was 4.17 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2 million tons. [13] - India: From May 30, India halved the basic import tax of crude edible oils. In June and July, palm oil imports increased. [25] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly this week. The USDA reduced the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels. [31] - As of July 20, the soybean flowering rate was 88%, the pod - setting rate was 28%, and the good - excellent rate was 68%. [36] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Brazil: The 2025/26 production is expected to reach 175 million tons. In July, the estimated export volume is 12.11 million tons. [64] - Argentina: The 2024/25 production was estimated at 49.9 million tons. [64] Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. The 2025/26 USDA forecast shows a restorative increase in production, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will slightly rise to 10.64%. [73] - Canada: The 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.46 million acres. The 2025/26 production is estimated to be 17.8 million tons. [78] Domestic Oils and Fats Market Review - This week, the three major domestic oils oscillated. The performance of soybean and palm oils was better than that of rapeseed oil. [93] Future Outlook - Palm oil: The tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia has eased. It is expected to enter a relatively slow inventory - building cycle. The p2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [94] - Soybean oil: South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken in the third quarter. The y2509 contract is supported by CBOT soybeans. [95] - Rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply is tightening marginally. The 01509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [95] Supply and Demand - As of July 18, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3602 million tons, an increase of 62,200 tons from last week, a rise of 2.71%. [125]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

机构观点 华联期货： 消息面 马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOC）：受豆油市场走强及印度节日需求推动，预计未来一个月毛棕榈油价格 将在4100至4300林吉特/吨区间波动。 截至7月18日（第29周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存59.14万吨，环比上周增加2.84万吨，增幅 5.04%；同比去年47.89万吨增加11.25万吨，增幅23.49%。 2025年7月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期增加7.03%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.16%，产量 环比上月同期增加6.19%。 ITS和AmSpec数据显示，马来西亚7月1-20日棕榈油出口量环比分别减少3.5%和7.3%。ITS发布的出口降 幅有所缩小，但AmSpec发布的出口降幅有所扩大，二者有所分化，还需关注后续的数据。美生柴政策 和印尼生柴政策长期利好油脂。预计国内油脂短期或震荡偏强。操作上，建议棕榈油09支撑位参考8500 附近。 中辉期货： 本月前十五日马棕榈油出口及产量数据偏空。但印尼官方称年内有足够资金完成B40目标，并完成B50 的研究测试工作，扫去市场之前的质疑，利多国际棕榈油价格走高，马来方面，马棕榈油调增8月出口 关税，相当于提高国内棕 ...