| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-04-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 124180 | -510 05-06月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -210 | -40 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15685 | 195 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 71954 | 1797 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | 3380 | -1064 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 201564 | 138 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 29587 | -745 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 23238 | -264 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 24368 | -264 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 125600 | 550 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 125600 | 650 | | | 上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the context of generally positive macro - conditions this year, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may enter a stage where the supply growth rate slows slightly, demand is steadily boosted, and consumption expectations are positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 77,600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,438 dollars/ton, up 60 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 164,818 lots, down 249 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 5,315 lots, up 5,841 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,035 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 78,125 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 113 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 96 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 435 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 28.6 dollars/ton, up 12.19 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.39 million tons, up 21.1 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.52 dollars/thousand tons, down 7.81 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 67,760 yuan/metal ton, down 680 yuan; the price in Yunnan is 68,460 yuan/metal ton, down 680 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the South is 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 124.8 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 470,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 54,690 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,200 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The output of copper products is 212.52 million tons, down 14.76 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956 billion yuan, up 519.8 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 19,904.17 billion yuan, up 9,184.43 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,197,199,900 pieces, down 80,202,900 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 32.16%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.57%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 17.64%, up 0.0034%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.84, down 0.0236 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will step up efforts to implement established policies, including boosting consumption and utilizing 5 trillion yuan of national - level investment funds this year. The central bank will prevent exchange - rate overshooting risks and may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy and promote high - quality development, covering employment support, foreign trade stability, consumption promotion, investment expansion and environment improvement [2]. 3.8 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Due to raw material supply shortages and smelter maintenance plans, the growth of domestic smelter production capacity may slow slightly, and the increase in domestic refined copper supply may also slow due to high tariffs. Demand: Affected by domestic demand expansion policies, the downstream copper product production is expected to remain at a relatively high level [2]. 3.9 Inventory Situation - The inflection point of domestic refined copper social inventory has been confirmed, and with the steady increase in downstream production, rapid inventory reduction has occurred [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, although the price has rebounded due to the fading of the tariff - war sentiment, the overall nickel element is in surplus with strong nickel ore prices, and there is significant upward pressure. Despite favorable policy stimuli, the economic slowdown is inevitable. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases [3]. - For the stainless steel market, after the sentiment of the Sino - US tariff war fades, the price has returned. With strong nickel ore prices and increased nickel - iron costs, along with reduced production of 300 - series stainless steel, and recent policy stimuli, but weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On April 29, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 125,250 yuan/ton and closed at 124,690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 201,951 lots, and the open interest was 70,157 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened lower and oscillated downward on the night session of Friday, rebounded slightly after the opening of the day session but continued to fall, and then oscillated and rebounded after getting support. It closed with a medium - sized negative line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and the People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy and may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. The first - phase nickel ore domestic trade base price in Indonesia in May is expected to drop by about 1 US dollar, while the domestic trade premium will rise by 2 US dollars to 26 - 27 US dollars, with an overall increase of about 1 US dollar. Currently, nickel ore prices remain firm [2]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands also decreased. The nickel price oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. The spot trading of refined nickel was generally average, and most spot premiums and discounts remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 24,632 (- 168.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 201,426 (- 1,044) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operations, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On April 29, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,725 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 186,219 lots, and the open interest was 103,278 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated sideways slightly after the opening of the night session, fell slightly after the opening of the day session and then oscillated upward, closing with a medium - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared with the previous trading day [4]. - Similar to the nickel market, relevant policies were announced, and the situation of Indonesian nickel ore prices was the same. Nickel - iron prices were 970 - 975 yuan/nickel. The production of 300 - series stainless steel in April and May decreased [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless steel market oscillated upward, the cold - rolled price rebounded slightly, and the trading of low - priced resources was okay, meeting just - in - time demand. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,950 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 355 to 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 968.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The short - term strategy is range - bound oscillations, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases. For single - side trading, it is neutral, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and the economy through a comprehensive policy toolbox aimed at promoting high-quality development [1][2][3]. Employment Support - Key measures include encouraging companies to stabilize employment, enhancing vocational training, expanding support through labor-intensive projects, and improving public employment services [2][4]. - In Q1, urban employment increased by 3.08 million, with an average urban unemployment rate of 5.3%, indicating a stable employment situation [4]. Foreign Trade Stability - Policies to stabilize foreign trade include tailored support for industries and enterprises, helping exporters mitigate risks, and encouraging foreign investment in China [2][7]. - A recent policy package aims to assist foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic sales and integrating domestic and foreign trade [7][8]. Consumption Promotion - Strategies to boost consumption focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, enhancing service consumption, and implementing targeted measures for specific demographics [5][6]. - The government has allocated over 160 billion yuan for consumption incentives, with additional funds planned for future distribution [5]. Investment Expansion - Efforts to expand effective investment include improving infrastructure for consumption, boosting private investment, and establishing new policy financial tools [2][6]. - The government aims to accelerate the implementation of major investment projects and enhance financial support for key sectors [9]. Financial Support - The People's Bank of China plans to maintain liquidity and may adjust interest rates to support employment and economic stability [9][10]. - Financial measures will focus on supporting entrepreneurship among key groups, ensuring financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, and enhancing financial backing for service consumption [9].

· 2025 年 4 月 29 日 国都港股操作导航 星期二 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 40227.59 | 0.28 | | 标普 500 指数 | 5528.75 | 0.06 | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 17366.13 | -0.10 | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 8417.34 | 0.02 | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 22271.67 | 0.13 | | 日经 225 指数 | 35839.99 | 0.38 | | 台湾加权指数 | 20034.41 | 0.81 | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3288.41 | -0.20 | | 深证成指 | 9855.2 | -0.62 | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 21971.96 | -0.04 | | 国企指数 | 8080.19 | 0 | | 红筹指数 | 3768.92 | 0.22 | | 恒生科技指数 | 4988.94 | 0.12 | | AH 股溢价指数 | 135.36 | -0.32 | | 恒生期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade conflicts, it is expected that starting from the April PMI, data will gradually reflect the pressure, increasing the urgency to boost domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed, and short - and medium - term treasury bond yields are expected to decline significantly, followed by long - term bond yields potentially breaking previous lows [28]. - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner, more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral [28]. - For REITs, project fundamentals show increasing differentiation. In the second quarter, rental housing, consumption, and public utility projects may maintain resilience, while industrial parks and logistics warehousing projects may face headwinds [28]. - The current fundamentals are favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to buy on dips. Interest rates are expected to be narrowly volatile before the end of April and more volatile from May to June, with a possibility of breaking previous lows [29]. - Since April, external tariff shocks have affected domestic manufacturing and emerging industries. In the future, attention should be paid to the recovery of external demand, the development of emerging markets, and the implementation of domestic stimulus policies [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In March 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly year - on - year growth of 5.40%, the same as the previous period and slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI was 50.50%, up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.80%, also up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year [1]. - The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.20%, and the Caixin service industry business activity index was 51.90%, both showing an upward trend from the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in March 2025 were 11.50%, 1.60%, and 7.00% respectively, with M0 and M1 increasing compared to the previous period, while M2 remained the same [1]. - The CPI in March 2025 had a year - on - year decline of 0.10%, narrowing from the previous period; the PPI had a year - on - year decline of 2.50%, slightly deeper than the previous period [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) and total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.20% and 4.60% respectively, showing a slight upward trend compared to the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of export and import values in March 2025 were 12.40% and - 4.30% respectively, with exports rebounding strongly from the previous period and imports declining [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [2][3][17]. - On April 28, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 24 had negative basis. Yarn, Zhengzhou cotton, and pulp had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Sichuan Yajiang has proven lithium ore resources of 2.2 billion tons, ranking first in the world in terms of proven pegmatite - type lithium ore reserves [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons, with a total of 2292.33 tons by the end of March. Domestic raw - material gold production increased by 1.49% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 5.96%. The trading volume and turnover of the domestic gold market increased significantly [6]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus of 28.9 tons in 2025 and 20.9 tons in 2026 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Indian government is working to ensure a fair competition environment to prevent the impact of cheap imports on the steel market, and the country's steel ministry plans to increase coking coal imports [8][9]. - The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement this week [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Sinopec's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter of 2025 was RMB 13.975 billion, and the net cash flow from operating activities increased by RMB 21.9 billion year - on - year [12]. - The National Energy Administration issued measures to promote the development of the private economy in the energy sector, including exploring financing channels and supporting private enterprises in the energy field [12]. - In March 2025, there were 4455 new on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaic) in China, mainly photovoltaic projects [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia exported 923,893 tons of palm oil from April 1 to 25 [14]. - Japan may increase imports of US - produced corn as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On April 28, the central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, with specific measures in multiple aspects [17]. - The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner, and is researching new policy tools [17]. - In March 2025, local governments in China issued a total of 978.8 billion yuan in bonds, including 174.8 billion yuan in general bonds and 804 billion yuan in special bonds [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined. The inter - bank market funds were generally stable [23]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.54%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.86% [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2995, down 163 points from the previous trading day. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 23 points [27]. - The US dollar index fell 0.65%, and non - US currencies generally rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the bond market and REITs, including yield trends, investment strategies, and project fundamentals [28][29]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 29, 217 bonds were listed, 88 bonds were issued, 132 bonds were settled, and 302 bonds repaid principal and interest [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - share major indices adjusted, with consumption and real - estate sectors performing poorly and bank stocks strengthening. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% [31][32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.04%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.12% [32]. - The Taiwan Weighted Index rose 0.81% [33]. - As of April 28, 4706 A - share listed companies disclosed their first - quarter reports, with about 45.07% achieving year - on - year profit growth [33]. - Since April, 236 A - share companies have been surveyed by foreign institutions, mainly in sectors such as overseas expansion, consumer electronics, and pet economy [33]. - Multiple fund companies received notices of index license fee reduction, with the fee generally discounted by 20% [34][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [5] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on Trump's 100 - day governance speech, and the follow - up impact of tariff events on the economy, as well as the potential for a stagflation macro - environment overseas [1][3] - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone, and China's economy continues to show a stable and upward trend. Incremental policies will be introduced by the end of June [2] - The impact of tariff events on market sentiment has subsided, and attention should now turn to their impact on the economy [3] - For commodities, focus on the transmission of fundamentals and long - term stagflation allocation [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - During the May Day holiday from May 1st to May 5th, there are important data and events such as China's April PMI, initial GDP values of Europe and the US in Q1, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, etc. Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonal characteristics, rising in the first 20 working days after the holiday. For commodities, focus on the impact of travel consumption on crude oil prices and other factors [1] Macroeconomic Situation - The April Politburo meeting stated that the economy is showing a positive trend, and more proactive macro - policies will be implemented. China's Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The NDRC will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with incremental policies to be launched by the end of June [2] Tariff Events - Trump's tariff policies have been inconsistent. The US has imposed high anti - dumping and anti - subsidy taxes on Southeast Asian countries. There are chaotic signals on China's tariff issues. Some countries like South Korea and India have reached preliminary agreements with the US, and the US will prioritize negotiations with 18 trade partners in the next two months [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals. For industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals, beware of the emotional impact from US stock adjustments. For agricultural products, the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. Crude oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and be cautious about the emotional and callback risks of gold [4] Important News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and some incremental policies will be launched by the end of June. There are various international news including tariff negotiations between different countries and regions, and news about the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7][8]

中原期货研究所 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（76）期 发布日期：2025-04-29 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 宏观要闻 1、我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励 企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加强就业公共服务等举措； 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括"一业一策""一企一策"加大支持力度、帮助出口企业规避 风险、扩大服务产品出海、鼓励外资企业境内再投资等；在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务 消费、强化失能老年人照护、推动汽车消费扩容、构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度等；在积极扩 大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等；在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等。这些若干举措将成熟一项、出台一项。 2 ...

Economic Growth and Employment - In the first quarter, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [1] - The number of new urban jobs added in the first quarter was 3.08 million, an increase of 50,000 compared to the previous year, exceeding the expected pace [3] - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in the first quarter, which is below the expected control target [3] Policy Measures for Economic Stability - The government plans to establish a childcare subsidy system and create special re-lending tools to support key areas of service consumption and the elderly care industry [1] - Specific measures to stabilize foreign trade include tailored support for export enterprises and encouraging foreign investment in China [1] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate around 7.3 [2] Consumer Services and Employment Trends - The Ministry of Commerce is set to introduce a series of policies to enhance service consumption, including a 2025 action plan for quality improvement and a special action plan for health consumption [2] - There is a notable increase in recruitment demand in sectors such as life services, transportation logistics, and resident services, with AI-related job demand growing over 30% year-on-year [3]

此外，还包括积极扩大有效投资以及营造稳定发展良好环境方面的相关举措。 4月28日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。国家 发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上表示，将落实党中央、国务院决策部署，出台稳就业稳经济推动高 质量发展的若干举措。 赵辰昕介绍，相关政策将注重突出针对性和可操作性，注重增强企业和群众的获得感，成熟一项、出台 一项。 五方面举措稳就业稳经济 赵辰昕介绍，若干举措具体包括五方面内容。 其中，在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支 持、加强就业公共服务等几项具体举措；在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括一业一策、一企一策加大支持 力度，帮助出口企业规避风险，扩大服务产品"出海"，鼓励外资企业境内再投资等几项具体举措；在促 进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务消费，强化失能老年人照护，推动汽车消费扩容，构建技能导向的薪酬 分配制度等几项具体举措。 "下一步，国家发展改革委将积极会同各有关方面抓好若干举措落实，同时还将按照党中央、国务院要 求，常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备，充分备足预案，不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，根据形 ...