Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, although the price has rebounded due to the fading of the tariff - war sentiment, the overall nickel element is in surplus with strong nickel ore prices, and there is significant upward pressure. Despite favorable policy stimuli, the economic slowdown is inevitable. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases [3]. - For the stainless steel market, after the sentiment of the Sino - US tariff war fades, the price has returned. With strong nickel ore prices and increased nickel - iron costs, along with reduced production of 300 - series stainless steel, and recent policy stimuli, but weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On April 29, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 125,250 yuan/ton and closed at 124,690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 201,951 lots, and the open interest was 70,157 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened lower and oscillated downward on the night session of Friday, rebounded slightly after the opening of the day session but continued to fall, and then oscillated and rebounded after getting support. It closed with a medium - sized negative line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and the People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy and may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. The first - phase nickel ore domestic trade base price in Indonesia in May is expected to drop by about 1 US dollar, while the domestic trade premium will rise by 2 US dollars to 26 - 27 US dollars, with an overall increase of about 1 US dollar. Currently, nickel ore prices remain firm [2]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands also decreased. The nickel price oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. The spot trading of refined nickel was generally average, and most spot premiums and discounts remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 24,632 (- 168.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 201,426 (- 1,044) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operations, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On April 29, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,725 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 186,219 lots, and the open interest was 103,278 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated sideways slightly after the opening of the night session, fell slightly after the opening of the day session and then oscillated upward, closing with a medium - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared with the previous trading day [4]. - Similar to the nickel market, relevant policies were announced, and the situation of Indonesian nickel ore prices was the same. Nickel - iron prices were 970 - 975 yuan/nickel. The production of 300 - series stainless steel in April and May decreased [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless steel market oscillated upward, the cold - rolled price rebounded slightly, and the trading of low - priced resources was okay, meeting just - in - time demand. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,950 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 355 to 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 968.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The short - term strategy is range - bound oscillations, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases. For single - side trading, it is neutral, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

中国发展改革报社记者 | 付朝欢 4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议特别强调，要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱。4月28日，国新 办就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委、人力资源社会 保障部、商务部、中国人民银行四部门有关负责人出席并答记者问。 对于这个议题，党中央、国务院一直高度重视。此前，4月18日的国务院常务会议已就稳就业稳经济推 动高质量发展的若干举措进行了研究。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在28日的发布会上介绍，相关政策举措与去年9月份出台的一揽子增量政 策、中央经济工作会议和全国两会部署任务形成接续，具体包括支持就业、稳定外贸发展、促进消费、 积极扩大有效投资、营造稳定发展的良好环境等五方面内容。 若干举措将成熟一项、出台一项 发布会伊始，赵辰昕介绍了五个方面的政策举措。 在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加 强就业公共服务等。 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括"一业一策""一企一策"加大支持力度、帮助出口企业规避风险、扩大服 务产品"出海"、鼓励外资企业境内再投资等。 在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务消费、 ...

· 2025 年 4 月 29 日 国都港股操作导航 星期二 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 40227.59 | 0.28 | | 标普 500 指数 | 5528.75 | 0.06 | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 17366.13 | -0.10 | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 8417.34 | 0.02 | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 22271.67 | 0.13 | | 日经 225 指数 | 35839.99 | 0.38 | | 台湾加权指数 | 20034.41 | 0.81 | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3288.41 | -0.20 | | 深证成指 | 9855.2 | -0.62 | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 21971.96 | -0.04 | | 国企指数 | 8080.19 | 0 | | 红筹指数 | 3768.92 | 0.22 | | 恒生科技指数 | 4988.94 | 0.12 | | AH 股溢价指数 | 135.36 | -0.32 | | 恒生期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-04-29 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.50 | 50.20 | 50.80 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.80 | 50.40 | 53.00 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250401 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 51.20 | 50.80 | 51.10 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [5] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on Trump's 100 - day governance speech, and the follow - up impact of tariff events on the economy, as well as the potential for a stagflation macro - environment overseas [1][3] - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone, and China's economy continues to show a stable and upward trend. Incremental policies will be introduced by the end of June [2] - The impact of tariff events on market sentiment has subsided, and attention should now turn to their impact on the economy [3] - For commodities, focus on the transmission of fundamentals and long - term stagflation allocation [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - During the May Day holiday from May 1st to May 5th, there are important data and events such as China's April PMI, initial GDP values of Europe and the US in Q1, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, etc. Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonal characteristics, rising in the first 20 working days after the holiday. For commodities, focus on the impact of travel consumption on crude oil prices and other factors [1] Macroeconomic Situation - The April Politburo meeting stated that the economy is showing a positive trend, and more proactive macro - policies will be implemented. China's Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The NDRC will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with incremental policies to be launched by the end of June [2] Tariff Events - Trump's tariff policies have been inconsistent. The US has imposed high anti - dumping and anti - subsidy taxes on Southeast Asian countries. There are chaotic signals on China's tariff issues. Some countries like South Korea and India have reached preliminary agreements with the US, and the US will prioritize negotiations with 18 trade partners in the next two months [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals. For industrial products like black and non - ferrous metals, beware of the emotional impact from US stock adjustments. For agricultural products, the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. Crude oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and be cautious about the emotional and callback risks of gold [4] Important News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and some incremental policies will be launched by the end of June. There are various international news including tariff negotiations between different countries and regions, and news about the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7][8]

中原期货研究所 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（76）期 发布日期：2025-04-29 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 宏观要闻 1、我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励 企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加强就业公共服务等举措； 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括"一业一策""一企一策"加大支持力度、帮助出口企业规避 风险、扩大服务产品出海、鼓励外资企业境内再投资等；在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务 消费、强化失能老年人照护、推动汽车消费扩容、构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度等；在积极扩 大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等；在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等。这些若干举措将成熟一项、出台一项。 2 ...

Economic Growth and Employment - In the first quarter, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [1] - The number of new urban jobs added in the first quarter was 3.08 million, an increase of 50,000 compared to the previous year, exceeding the expected pace [3] - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in the first quarter, which is below the expected control target [3] Policy Measures for Economic Stability - The government plans to establish a childcare subsidy system and create special re-lending tools to support key areas of service consumption and the elderly care industry [1] - Specific measures to stabilize foreign trade include tailored support for export enterprises and encouraging foreign investment in China [1] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate around 7.3 [2] Consumer Services and Employment Trends - The Ministry of Commerce is set to introduce a series of policies to enhance service consumption, including a 2025 action plan for quality improvement and a special action plan for health consumption [2] - There is a notable increase in recruitment demand in sectors such as life services, transportation logistics, and resident services, with AI-related job demand growing over 30% year-on-year [3]

此外，还包括积极扩大有效投资以及营造稳定发展良好环境方面的相关举措。 4月28日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。国家 发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上表示，将落实党中央、国务院决策部署，出台稳就业稳经济推动高 质量发展的若干举措。 赵辰昕介绍，相关政策将注重突出针对性和可操作性，注重增强企业和群众的获得感，成熟一项、出台 一项。 五方面举措稳就业稳经济 赵辰昕介绍，若干举措具体包括五方面内容。 其中，在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支 持、加强就业公共服务等几项具体举措；在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括一业一策、一企一策加大支持 力度，帮助出口企业规避风险，扩大服务产品"出海"，鼓励外资企业境内再投资等几项具体举措；在促 进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务消费，强化失能老年人照护，推动汽车消费扩容，构建技能导向的薪酬 分配制度等几项具体举措。 "下一步，国家发展改革委将积极会同各有关方面抓好若干举措落实，同时还将按照党中央、国务院要 求，常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备，充分备足预案，不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，根据形 ...

Group 1: Employment and Economic Stability - The government is implementing measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality economic development, focusing on encouraging enterprises to maintain employment and enhancing vocational training [1] - Specific initiatives include expanding support for export enterprises, encouraging foreign investment, and promoting service product exports [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Investment - The government aims to expand service consumption and strengthen care for disabled elderly individuals, as well as promote automotive consumption [1] - Efforts to boost effective investment include improving consumer infrastructure and increasing private investment enthusiasm [1] Group 3: Healthcare and Social Security - Ten provinces in China have implemented direct payment of maternity benefits to individuals, simplifying the process and reducing the time taken to receive benefits [2] - The maternity benefits, funded by the medical insurance fund, replace the salary of female employees during maternity leave [2][3] - The process for claiming maternity insurance has been streamlined, eliminating the need for additional documentation such as birth certificates and marriage certificates [3]

今日优选 外媒专访：特朗普认为没有任何红线会改变关税政策 美乌最快或于本周签署矿产协议 美财政部上调二季度举债规模预期 巴基斯坦防长：印度的军事进攻迫在眉睫 韩国预计在6月大选前不可能与美国达成贸易协议 一季度中国黄金消费量同比、黄金ETF持仓增长 玉渊谭天：一些增量政策将在6月底前推出 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 国际原油结束两日连涨，美盘跌幅扩大。WTI原油跌破62美元关口，最终收跌2.06%，报61.68美元/桶，创近两周新低；布伦特原油收跌1.97%，报64.61美 元/桶。 美股三大股指涨跌不一，道指收涨0.28%，标普500指数涨0.06%，纳指跌0.1%。特斯拉(TSLA.O)涨0.3%，苹果(AAPL.O)涨0.4%，英伟达(NVDA.O)跌2%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.68%，阿里巴巴(BABA.N)跌1.6%，蔚来汽车(NIO.N)涨近7%。 欧股主要股指全线收涨，德国DAX30指数收涨0.13%；英国富时100指数涨0.02%；欧洲斯托克50指数收涨0.32%。 港股收盘 ...