1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of global trade pattern reshaping and geopolitical evolution, the trade protectionism and tariff policies of the United States have led to increased economic and fiscal pressures in the US, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, and the sovereign credit risks of these regions have generally risen [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 United States - **Economic Risk**: Trade protectionism restrains the US economic outlook, and the inflation expectation caused by tariffs may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the "stagflation" risk. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow to below 2% from 2025 - 2026 [3][5]. - **Policy Uncertainty**: The Trump administration's policies reduce the predictability of the US government's policy path, and political polarization intensifies, affecting policy continuity [3][6]. - **Fiscal Sustainability**: The US government's debt level and cost are rising. The tariff policy's effect on alleviating fiscal pressure is doubtful. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain above 7% in the medium - term, and the government debt - to - GDP ratio may rise above 110%. The debt interest burden is expected to rise to over 12% of fiscal revenue in 2025 [3][8]. - **Impact on Global System**: The US tariff policy weakens the credit of US dollar assets and may accelerate the evolution of the global governance system towards a more multi - polar and regionalized direction [8]. 3.2 Canada - **Economic Downturn**: Canada's high dependence on US exports makes it sensitive to external shocks. Its GDP growth expectation in 2025 is lowered to below 1%, and steel, aluminum, and energy product tariffs directly impact its exports and manufacturing [3][9]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: The combination of economic slowdown and high - interest rates increases the difficulty of debt management. The interest expenditure is expected to account for about 8.5% of federal fiscal revenue in 2025, and the fiscal deficit may expand [9]. 3.3 Mexico - **Economic Recession Pressure**: Tariff shocks increase the risk of economic recession. The IMF has significantly lowered Mexico's 2025 economic growth forecast to - 0.3%. The manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom - bust line, and inflation has risen [3][12]. - **Fiscal Challenges**: The fiscal deficit rate will remain at about 5% in 2025. The financial problems of Pemex and the contraction of exports may exacerbate fiscal sustainability risks [12]. - **Sovereign Credit Reassessment**: Mexico's sovereign credit needs to be re - evaluated, and its future depends on achieving re - balance in institutional stability, foreign trade substitution, and fiscal balance [13]. 3.4 EU - **Economic Challenges**: The eurozone economy faces slow growth and inflation. The GDP growth rate in 2025 is only 0.9%, and 1.2% in 2026. The US tariff policy may further weaken its growth power and competitiveness [16]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: EU countries' fiscal pressure is expanding. Defense spending will increase in the medium - to - long - term, and debt will accumulate further. Italy and France's debt - to - GDP ratios are expected to exceed the 2012 levels [19]. - **External Repayment Pressure**: The EU faces dual pressures of monetary policy and financing costs. Rising bond yields increase the government's refinancing cost, and the limited interest - rate cut space may increase the debt - servicing pressure of high - debt countries [20]. - **Governance Changes**: The deepening of tariff policies and geopolitical games accelerates the transformation of the European governance model. The increase in strategic autonomy and the differentiation of member states' geopolitical choices will lead to different sovereign credit risks [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, while maintaining the view in the mid - year report "The Stronger Prevail, the Bull Market of Precious Metals Continues" for the medium - and long - term. The new support range for COMEX gold is $3100 - 3300, and the support range for COMEX silver is $32 - 33. The upper targets for gold and silver within the year are $3900 - 4000 and $39 - 40 respectively. The weekly ranges to watch are [3200, 3450] for COMEX gold and [32, 35] for COMEX silver [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Trump welcomes the rapid end of the Israel - Iran war and plans to talk with Iranian officials next week to seek an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions [2] - Powell says Trump's tariff plan may cause a one - time price increase, and the Fed will be cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation risks [2] - The US Treasury extends the authorization for extraordinary cash management measures to July 24 to avoid hitting the debt ceiling [2] - Hong Kong releases the Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0, aiming to build a global digital asset center, and will implement a licensing mechanism for stablecoin issuers on August 1 [2] - The US May durable goods orders monthly rate is 16.4%, much higher than the expected 8.5% [2] - The US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value is - 0.5%, worse than the expected - 0.20% [2] - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 are 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000 [3] Price Logic - As of the close on the 26th, gold prices rose moderately for the second consecutive day, driven by concerns about Fed independence and rate - cut expectations. However, gold failed to break through $3350 per ounce, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum [4][7] - In the Middle East situation, Trump's claim of victory over Iran and the uncertain damage to Iranian uranium - enrichment facilities, along with market caution, suppressed gold prices [7] - US economic data on the 26th night showed stagflation in Q1, with unexpected manufacturing demand and a robust labor market in Q2. The 5 - year and 30 - year Treasury yield spread reached its steepest level since 2021 [7][8] - Despite Trump's plan to replace Powell, the Fed's Goolsbee says it won't affect FOMC independence [8]

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Bearish" [7] Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the stagflation pressure in the US will rise significantly, and the Fed will release liquidity to balance the economy, leading to a weaker US dollar with an expected weakening center around 95 [5][95] - The market volatility in the second half of the year will be significantly higher than that in the first half, so holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96] Summary by Directory 1. United States: Severe Economic Pressure and Worsening Treasury Bond Issues 1.1 Labor Market: Structural Resilience Persists, but Medium - term Weakness is Inevitable - In H1 2025, the US labor market's resilience exceeded expectations, with a high - level new employment center, slowing wage growth, and a low unemployment rate [17] - The labor market shows insensitivity to the economic cycle, and in the future, it may enter an "atypical recession" with a linear decline in employment and a possible sudden acceleration of weakness [19] - The Phillips curve may flatten in H2 due to inflation, and the labor market may resist inflation, increasing fluctuations [21][23] 1.2 The Prospect of US Economic Stagflation is Becoming More Apparent - The current decline in US inflation data is a reflection of past economic fundamentals. The potential pressure of reciprocal tariffs will push up inflation expectations, and the long - term inflation pressure will be significant [26] - The US economy's downward pressure is increasing, with the deterioration of the household sector's cash - flow and the long - standing problem of credit tightening [28][30] - The pressure of stagflation is shifting from expectation to reality. The end of the inventory - replenishment phase in the corporate sector and the intensification of reciprocal tariffs will exacerbate stagflation [36][37] 1.3 US Dollar: A Clearly Weakening Currency in H2 - In H1 2025, the market accepted the weak - dollar cycle as the high - growth of the US economy, the basis of the strong - dollar cycle, no longer exists [40] - The US Treasury bond issue will become more prominent in H2. The solution to the deficit problem requires liquidity injection, which will lead to a weaker US dollar [44][46] 2. Eurozone and Japan 2.1 Eurozone: Marginal Improvement in Economic Fundamentals - In 2025, the Eurozone's real GDP growth rebounded, inflation continued to decline, and the manufacturing industry recovered faster than the service industry, driving up the debt levels of residents and enterprises [48][57] - The EU's "Re - arming Europe Plan" with 800 billion euros in spending has changed the economic structure of the Eurozone, increasing manufacturing capacity [57] - The ECB will continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will also be strengthened. The euro's appreciation trend will be enhanced [66] 2.2 Japan: Persistent Appreciation Trend - Japan's economic fundamentals have improved, with consumption driving GDP growth. However, there is a divergence between strong consumption and relatively weak industrial production [69][75] - From a fundamental perspective, the yen has a basis for appreciation, but a strong yen will bring challenges to foreign trade and liquidity. The Bank of Japan needs to make a choice on interest - rate policy [85][86] - Considering the US - Japan trade negotiation and market expectations, the yen is likely to appreciate, but the speed of appreciation needs to be controlled [86] 3. Global Macro: Embracing a More Uncertain Second Half - Trump's policies in 2025 have broken the strong - dollar cycle, and the de - globalization narrative has emerged, with the US Treasury bond issue coming to the fore [87] - The extreme and inconsistent policies are due to populism, which exposes the fragility of the US economy and leads to stagflation [87] - Geopolitical risks will rise in H2, which will have a short - term positive impact on the US dollar but a long - term negative impact. The US dollar will continue to weaken [91][92] 4. Investment Recommendations 4.1 The Weak - dollar Trend is Obvious - In H2 2025, the US stagflation pressure will rise, and the Fed will release liquidity, leading to a weaker US dollar with a center around 95 [5][95] 4.2 Continued Recommendation of Safe - haven Assets - In H2, market contradictions and conflicts will accelerate, increasing volatility. Holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **Chinese economy**, focusing on **real estate**, **fixed asset investment**, and **monetary policy** from the **Federal Reserve** and **Bank of Japan** [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Economic Performance - **Consumption Trends**: In May, consumer spending showed a mixed performance, with essential goods and dining services maintaining strong growth, while real estate-related consumption declined. Retail sales saw a significant year-on-year increase, reaching a high for 2024 [2][3]. - **Investment Decline**: Fixed asset investment fell for the second consecutive month, reaching a new low for the year. Real estate development investment saw a notable decline, while broad infrastructure investment remained high but showed signs of a decrease related to special bonds [1][3][4]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is in a phase of simultaneous decline in both volume and price, with residential sales area experiencing the lowest year-on-year drop since October 2024. New construction area decreased by 0.4%, while completion area increased by 3.7% [4][5]. Monetary Policy Insights - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed maintained interest rates but revised up its unemployment and inflation forecasts, indicating concerns over economic stagnation. The median expected federal funds rate for the end of the year suggests two potential rate cuts [6][7]. - **Bank of Japan**: The BoJ decided to slow down its balance sheet reduction despite rising core CPI, reflecting concerns over domestic economic recovery. This divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is notable [5][7][8][9]. Policy Measures - **Lujiazui Forum Announcements**: The forum introduced several financial policy measures aimed at enhancing external risk resistance and improving financing capabilities for trade sectors. It also included the restart of listings for unprofitable companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [11][12]. - **Support for Innovation**: The support for unprofitable innovative enterprises to list is expected to significantly impact technology-driven companies, facilitating capital market access and promoting high-quality development of new productive forces [14]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Real Estate and Debt**: The ongoing weakness in the real estate market is expected to impact household debt and investment, necessitating measures to recover idle land and improve liquidity for developers [4][5]. - **Export Risks**: The Chinese government is implementing various measures to mitigate export risks, including enhancing financing for foreign trade enterprises and optimizing free trade account functions [12][13]. - **Data Transparency Initiatives**: The central bank is working on improving data transparency in the interbank market, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [15][16][17].

Market Overview - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to significant volatility in the commodity markets this week [1][2] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during its June meeting for the fourth consecutive time, with limited new information provided [1] - Global stock markets showed little movement, with the US dollar rebounding while most non-US currencies weakened [1] US Stock Market - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines: S&P 500 down 0.15% to 5967.84 points, Dow Jones down 0.02% to 42206.82 points, and Nasdaq down 0.21% to 19447.41 points [1] - The "Big Seven" tech stocks in the US saw a cumulative increase of 0.08%, with Apple rising 2.32% and Nvidia 1.32%, while Google A fell 4.60% [1] European Market - Major European stock indices generally declined, with the STOXX 600 down 1.54%, DAX 30 down 0.70%, CAC 40 down 1.24%, and FTSE 100 down 0.86% [1] Asian Market - The South Korean stock market rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.4% and a year-to-date increase of 25.9% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.5%, and the SENSEX 30 index in India rose by 1.59% [2] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.63% to 98.76, while most non-US currencies depreciated, with the euro down 0.26% and the yen down 1.39% against the dollar [2] Commodity Market - Oil prices surged due to heightened geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil rising 2.09% to $75.78 per barrel, marking a 20% increase from its yearly low [2] - WTI crude oil increased by 1.45% to $74.04 per barrel, while natural gas futures rose nearly 7.43% [2] - Gold prices fell below $3370 per ounce, down over 1.8%, marking the first decline in three weeks [2] - Platinum prices rose nearly 3% to $1262.2 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% [2] Shipping Market - The shipping index (European line) fell by 10.66% due to uncertainties in trade prospects, with the Shanghai export container composite freight index dropping 10.5% to 1869.59 points [3] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve raised its expectations for economic stagflation, lowering the 2025 growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% and increasing core PCE inflation expectations from 2.8% to 3.3% [3] - Recent CPI data indicated a rebound in US inflation, but core inflation remained relatively stable, suggesting that tariff impacts may be less than anticipated [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating potential rate cuts later this year, but concerns over tariffs may slow the pace of these cuts due to expected inflation increases [1][2]. Economic Forecast - The Fed projects a moderate stagflation scenario with economic growth slowing to 1.4% this year and unemployment rising to 4.5% by year-end [1]. - Inflation is expected to settle at 3% by 2025, significantly above current levels [1]. Interest Rate Projections - The Fed anticipates a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts this year, consistent with previous forecasts, but has slightly slowed the pace of future cuts, projecting 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027 [1]. - Analysts express mixed views on the Fed's projections, with some noting a shift towards a more hawkish stance among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the S&P 500 index initially rose but ended up only 0.03% higher, while U.S. Treasury yields saw slight declines [1]. - The dollar index experienced fluctuations, ultimately rising by 0.21% [1]. Analyst Insights - Analysts highlight that the Fed's decision aligns with previous signals, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on inflation [2][3]. - Some analysts believe that the Fed's outlook on growth and inflation suggests that the anticipated economic impacts may not be as severe as previously feared [2][4]. - There is a consensus that the Fed's cautious approach reflects ongoing uncertainties in the labor market and inflation dynamics [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down by 44.14 points (0.10%) and the Nasdaq up by 25.18 points (0.13%) [2] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, maintaining it at 4.25%-4.5% since December of the previous year, amid rising inflation expectations and slowing economic growth [4][5] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts by the end of 2025, but has reduced the total expected cuts to four, with a cumulative decrease of 1 percentage point [5][6] Group 2 - Economic forecasts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest increasing stagflation pressures, with GDP growth for 2024 expected at only 1.4% and inflation at 3%, reflecting a downward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [7] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than earlier predictions [7] - The FOMC's statement indicates a generally "steady" economic growth, with low unemployment and slightly rising inflation, while expressing reduced concerns over economic volatility and trade policy risks [8] Group 3 - Recent economic data shows a slight decrease in initial jobless claims, stabilizing at around 245,000, which aligns with economists' median estimates [15][16] - New housing starts fell to an annualized rate of 1.256 million units, down from 1.392 million units the previous month, indicating a 9.8% decline [18][19] - The S&P 500 index saw declines in seven out of eleven sectors, with energy and communication services leading the losses [21]

多位贸易分析人士对《财经》指出，无论是对英国还是对美国，他们都匆忙地赶出这个贸易协议，特朗普不断变化的贸易政策使英国经济显示出的激增势 头戛然而止。关税对美国经济的冲击正在逐渐显现，特朗普也急需一个关税方面的成果。 纽约联储6月8日发布的月度调查显示，美国家庭对未来通胀的预期正在飙升，同时指出其未来收入增长将显著放缓，这些都正是经济滞胀的典型征兆。此 前，国际货币基金组织(IMF)也将2025年美国GDP（国内生产总值）增幅预估下调0.9个百分点至1.8%，在全球主要经济体中降幅最大。 英美最新达成的协议涵盖钢铁、汽车、乙醇、牛肉和航空航天等多方面 文 |《财经》特约撰稿人 金焱 发自华盛顿 编辑 | 苏琦 美东时间6月16日周一，美国总统特朗普和英国首相斯塔默共同宣布，已经敲定了上个月达成的贸易协议的一般条款。在加拿大举行的七国集团（G7）峰 会上，特朗普与斯塔默站在一起。特朗普挥舞着他刚刚签署的文件，表示他与英国的关系"非常好"，"我们签署了协议，已经搞定了"。这是自特朗普挑起 关税战以来，美国政府与他国达成的第一份贸易协议。 斯塔默则表示，该文件将落实双方在汽车关税和航空领域达成的协议，但没有提供细节。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive assets in investment portfolios, particularly during uncertain market conditions. Defensive assets serve as a "stabilizing force" to protect investors' wealth amidst market volatility [2][32]. Group 1: Understanding Defensive Assets - Defensive assets are categorized as those that maintain stable intrinsic value and exhibit lower price volatility during market fluctuations, contrasting with risk assets that are more sensitive to market changes [4]. - The two primary functions of defensive assets are to reduce portfolio volatility and provide high credit quality and liquidity, ensuring stable cash flow during market downturns [4]. Group 2: Types of Defensive Assets - **Cash and Cash Equivalents**: High safety and liquidity, including money market funds that can be accessed anytime without fees [6][8]. - **Bond Assets**: Fixed income with potential for interest and price appreciation, with government bonds offering more stability than corporate bonds [10][11]. - **Dividend Assets**: Provide regular cash flow through dividends, performing well in bear markets and benefiting from valuation recovery in bull markets [14][15]. - **Gold**: Recognized as a "safe haven" asset during crises, maintaining value better than fiat currencies [16][18]. - **Commodities**: Stable demand and serve as a hedge against inflation, with specific commodities like oil and metals being particularly relevant during supply disruptions [20][21]. Group 3: Performance of Defensive Assets in Different Scenarios - **Economic Deflation**: Bond assets perform best due to liquidity and declining interest rates, while commodities lag [24][26]. - **Stagflation**: Commodities excel as inflation rises, while bonds struggle due to tightening monetary policy [28]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Gold prices tend to rise significantly during conflicts, reflecting its status as a hard currency [30][31]. Group 4: Conclusion - In the current complex investment landscape, incorporating defensive assets into portfolios is essential. Diversifying across different types of defensive assets can enhance overall portfolio resilience [32].

"美联储的独立性很重要，因为它可以确保对通货膨胀有个更稳定的预期。政治干预可能会加大美联储降低利率的难度。" 在美国总统特朗普日前再次施压美联储降息之际，美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆表明了以上态度。 利率将第四次维持不变？ 在日前公布的数据显示5月美国私营部门就业岗位增幅创下两年多以来新低、服务业意外出现近一年来的首次收缩，同时欧洲央行宣布了一年内的第八次降 息决定后，美国领导人坐不住了。 总统特朗普6日再次将矛头指向迟迟不肯进一步降息的美联储主席鲍威尔，在社交媒体上称鲍威尔为"太迟先生"且"是个灾难"，并称美国经济"表现很棒"， 敦促美联储"加油"，立即降息"整整一个百分点"。 特朗普社交媒体截图 在第二条帖文中，特朗普进一步炮轰鲍威尔"让美国付出了巨大代价"，称通胀"几乎已经不存在"，贷款利率应该被大幅降低。 特朗普社交媒体截图 虽然特朗普要求的"整整一个百分点"的降息幅度不同寻常，但他敦促美联储降息的做法并不新鲜。 为了应对40年不遇的高通胀，美联储从2022年开始大幅加息。随着通胀回落，美联储又从去年9月开始降息，以免过高的利率制约经济增长。但近几个月持 续高于2%理想目标的通胀率促 ...