文/国务院发展研究中心研究员 张立群 经 济 增 长 过 程 也 是 总 供 给与 总 需 求 紧密 联系 、 互为 条 件 、 矛 盾 运 动 的 过 程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失 衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的失衡；增速 过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。当前我国经 济增速已偏离合理区间较多，供大于求的宏观经济总量失衡较为严重。市 场引导的需求收缩力度已很大 合理经济增长率与宏观经济总量平衡 经济增长过程也是总供给与总需求紧密联系、互为条件、矛盾运动的过程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间 过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的 失衡；增速过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。 在市场调节条件下，供求总量失衡和经济增速偏离合理区间后会出现自我加速趋势。市场供求调节机制 会使宏观经济总量失衡持续加剧，使经济增速加快偏离合理区间，这也表现为经济增长的大起大落。对 市场机制可能引发的这一严重问题，必须依靠政府的科学宏观调控，必须及时加强宏观政策逆周期调 节，及时扭转市场引导 ...

近期，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士接受了中国媒体群访，分享了他对中国宏观经济的最新观点，以 下是《上海证券报》的专篇报道。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 "以供给来拉动需求，'苏超'是一个很好的例子。"野村中国首席经济学家陆挺日前在接受上海 证券报采访时这样说道。谈及近期大火的江苏省城市足球联赛（下称"苏超"），他兴致勃勃地 表示，本周末他准备回到家乡南通海门，现场观战。 "我的老家海门难得能聚集两万人。除了拉动客流量，还有拉动基建的作用。原来的球场座位 只能坐10000人，这两天海门的建筑业也迎来了新机会，加班加点再装10000个座位。"陆挺表 示。 今年的政府工作报告将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"列为十大任务之 首。陆挺表示，如果将"苏超"看做消费场景，这无疑给提振内需提供了新思路。与此同时，进 一步完善社会保障体系，解决好收入分配问题，消费则有望成为国民经济稳定增长的重要支柱 之一。 从收入端来看，进一步完善社会保障和福利体系，解决好收入分配问题，能够让消费成为国民经 济稳定增长的重要支柱。陆挺认为，医疗保障、社会保障、生育津贴等社会保障体系是支持消费 增长的长期动能。 另外就是创造 ...

Group 1 - The appreciation of the yen against the dollar is partially supported by the depreciation of the dollar due to the U.S. monetary easing policies aimed at addressing domestic economic recession and high inflation [3][4] - The long-term depreciation of the yen is attributed to structural issues within the Japanese economy, including a phenomenon of "structural yen selling" driven by Japanese companies' overseas investments [3][4] - Japan's low interest rate policy and economic stagnation have led to capital outflows, further exacerbating the depreciation of the yen [4][6] Group 2 - Global economic uncertainties, including U.S. monetary policy and the recovery of the European and Chinese economies, significantly impact the yen's value [6][7] - The reliance on exports makes Japan's economy vulnerable to fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, which can affect the competitiveness of Japanese exporters [6][9] - Japan must focus on internal economic reforms and reduce dependence on external markets to achieve sustainable economic growth and address the underlying issues of yen depreciation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The savings rate of Chinese residents has plummeted to a historic low of 24.3% in 2024, down from 45.7% in 2020, primarily due to the long-term pressure of high housing prices on household economic structures [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of High Housing Prices - High housing prices have led to a significant decline in household savings, with nearly half of respondents indicating they have little to no savings [1][4]. - The average household debt in China is 512,000 yuan, with over 80% attributed to housing loans, averaging 418,000 yuan [4]. - Monthly mortgage payments consume 42.3% of household income, far exceeding the international warning line of 30%, severely limiting disposable income for savings [4]. Group 2: Consequences of Declining Savings Rate - The drastic drop in savings rates poses serious social challenges, including significant risks to pension security, with a projected pension gap exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2035 [7]. - Families' ability to withstand financial shocks is greatly diminished, as many are burdened with substantial mortgage debts, making them vulnerable to unemployment or health crises [9]. - The decline in savings is expected to lead to reduced consumer demand, undermining economic growth, as families with low savings will cut back on spending during economic downturns [9]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions - To address the crisis, it is essential to implement dual strategies: increasing the proportion of residents' income in GDP and improving income distribution [9]. - Additionally, creating more job opportunities is crucial to enhance household income levels and mitigate the impact of high housing prices on savings rates [9].

首先，高昂的能源成本已成为制约澳大利亚冶炼行业发展的最大障碍。澳大利亚的电力价格在过去一年 中急剧上涨，这不仅影响了普通家庭的日常开销，也对能源密集型的冶炼厂造成了毁灭性打击。以铝土 矿和铜等金属冶炼厂为例，电力占其生产成本的比例通常达到50%以上。当电费不断攀升时，冶炼厂不 得不选择削减生产或甚至停产，这直接导致了产能过剩的市场失衡和就业的急剧下降。 与此同时，国际大宗商品价格的波动亦为澳大利亚矿商带来了严峻挑战。近年来，全球经济的不确定性 加剧，大宗商品价格起伏不定，金属价格的波动尤其明显。全球经济放缓，需求减少，直接影响到澳大 利亚的出口收入，矿商的盈利能力进一步下降。在这种背景下，澳大利亚的冶炼行业几乎处于"两头受 夹"的困境：一方面，能源成本不断上升，另一方面，市场需求的减弱使得其产品售价下降。许多冶炼 厂不得不考虑削减成本或停产，这一过程必然会引发大量工人失业，社会不稳定因素也随之增加。 在这场矿业危机中，企业的呼救声逐渐变得更为尖锐。矿商们纷纷要求澳大利亚政府给予经济援助，呼 吁政府减免电费或提供补贴，以帮助他们度过这一困难时刻。然而，政府的回应却充满了犹豫与谨慎。 总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯领导的 ...

俄罗斯总统普京：目前形势下，我们的战略方向是逐步调整国内经济结构。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that China's venture capital market is at a turning point, transitioning into a new era characterized by structural transformation and policy-driven opportunities [1][20][25] - The WAVES 2025 conference gathered top investors, entrepreneurs, and scholars to discuss topics such as AI innovation, globalization, and value reassessment, aiming to explore the future of China's venture capital [1][20] - Early-stage investment in China has faced significant challenges, with some sectors experiencing a cold market despite high-level policy support, indicating a dichotomy in the investment landscape [3][10] Group 2 - China's economic structure is undergoing a significant shift from reliance on bank loans to a model that supports venture capital and early-stage investments, reflecting changes in the underlying financial support systems [5][10][25] - High-tech and high-value-added industries have maintained rapid growth even during economic slowdowns, indicating a robust potential for future investments in these sectors [6][10] - The establishment of Asset Investment Companies (AICs) by major banks marks a significant shift towards direct financing and support for equity investments, which could reshape the financial landscape in China [23][24] Group 3 - The introduction of personal pension systems in China is expected to create a long-term investment pool, similar to the impact of the 401K plan in the U.S., which could significantly influence the capital market [16][17] - The current trend in China's public funds shows a rapid growth in index funds, driven by low-interest rates and increased dividend payouts, reflecting a shift in investor behavior [19] - The ongoing reforms in China's capital market, including the ability for loss-making companies to go public, indicate a changing valuation logic that aligns more closely with growth-oriented investments [17][20]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比5.8%、预期5.7%、前值6.1%。 核心观点: 节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多2天）带动需求集中释放。 5月社零增速创2024年 以来新高。有两大原因。1、电商促销前置带动限额以上零售反弹。家电（+14.2pct至53.0%） 和通讯器材（+13.1pct至33.0%）明显改善；2、5月假日（含周末）比去年同期多2天，直接驱 事件: 5月，社零当月同比6.4%、预期4.9%、前值5.1%；固投累计同比3.7%、预期4%、前值 动出行需求的集中释放。限额以下商品零售（+1.2pct至5.2%）和餐饮收入（+1.3pct至 13%）、服务业零售额（累计同比+0.1pct至5.2%）均改善。 投资：固定投资走弱，主因设备更新周期退坡与传统基建地产回落，但服务业投资继续提速。 5 月固定投资当月同比回落0.7 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比5.8%、预期5.7%、前值6.1%。 核心观点: 节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多2天）带动需求集中释放。 5月社零增速创2024年 以来新高。有两大原因。1、电商促销前置带动限额以上零售反弹。家电（+14.2pct至53.0%） 和通讯器材（+13.1pct至33.0%）明显改善；2、5月假日（含周末）比去年同期多2天，直接驱 事件: 5月，社零当月同比6.4%、预期4.9%、前值5.1%；固投累计同比3.7%、预期4%、前值 动出行需求的集中释放。限额以下商品零售（+1.2pct至5.2%）和餐饮收入（+1.3pct至 13%）、服务业零售额（累计同比+0.1pct至5.2%）均改善。 投资：固定投资走弱，主因设备更新周期退坡与传统基建地产回落，但服务业投资继续提速。 5 月固定投资当月同比回落0.7 ...

经济数据 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 研究支持 宏 观 研 究 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 (8621)23297818× tuqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 06 月 17 日 为何消费与生产背离？ ——5 月经济数据点评 事件：5 月，社零当月同比 6.4%、预期 4.9%、前值 5.1%；固投累计同比 3.7%、预期 4%、前值 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房 销售面积累计同比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比 5.8%、预期 5.7%、前值 6.1%。 ⚫ 核心观点：节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离。 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多 2 天）带动需求集中释放。 ...