Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins have gradually stopped falling. With the easing of the external environment, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and polyolefins have followed the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term oscillating rebound trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7024, 7090, and 7119 respectively, up 55, 69, and 69 from the day before, with increases of 0.79%, 0.98%, and 0.98%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6768, and 6770 respectively, up 37, 49, and 42, with increases of 0.56%, 0.73%, and 0.62% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 241446, 30216, and 144 respectively. For PP, they were 262100, 37290, and 1332 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 523862, 66492, and 1155 respectively, with changes of - 5325, 3904, and 19. For PP, they were 608347, 130837, and 6741, with changes of 247, 3976, and 600 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 66, - 29, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 29, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 69, - 2, and 71, compared to previous values of - 57, - 9, and 66 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2274 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 542 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, they were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 6946 | 6999 | 7013 | 6934 | 85 | 1.23 | 531489 | -18375 | | Plastic 2605 | 6965 | 7044 | 7060 | 6965 | 91 | 1.31 | 62406 | 487 | | Plastic 2609 | 7019 | 7058 | 7072 | 7015 | 65 | 0.93 | 1129 | 194 | | PP2601 | 6633 | 6691 | 6710 | 6616 | 84 | 1.27 | 618484 | -14771 | | PP2605 | 6656 | 6740 | 6755 | 6656 | 88 | 1.32 | 126580 | 1854 | | PP2609 | 6684 | 6734 | 6754 | 6678 | 61 | 0.91 | 6035 | 1037 | [3] Spot Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.56%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 770,000 tons [5] - PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, in East China 6950 - 7500 yuan/ton, and in South China 7150 - 7500 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 6000 - 6020 yuan/ton. The propylene price remained stable at a low level, downstream factories made purchases as needed, production enterprises aimed for stable sales, and a small number of offers were slightly adjusted. The overall market was in a wait - and - see mood [5] - The PP market showed a warm adjustment, with some market prices rising by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North China drawstrings were in the range of 6460 - 6570 yuan/ton, in East China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton, and in South China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed higher at 6999 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (1.23%), with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 18,375 lots to 531,489 lots. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan (1.27%), with an open interest decrease of 14,771 lots to 618,500 lots [4] - The slight increase in futures prices boosted the market atmosphere, and end - users made appropriate replenishments for production. There is an expected launch of a 400,000 - ton PP plant in Guangxi Petrochemical in the second half of the month. In the short term, maintenance of plants is still concentrated, the support from the "Silver October" demand is weakening, and high downstream costs, inventory, and limited profitability are suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm [4] - The operating rate of PE agricultural film is still at a high level, but the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the support from the demand side will weaken. The cost side rebounded strongly during the day, and the geopolitical situation and the results of China - US trade talks are uncertain, leading to wider oil price fluctuations [4] - The absolute prices of polyolefins are in a low - level range, and they rebounded slightly due to cost support. However, weak supply - demand and signals of open interest reduction are restricting the upward space [4] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polyolefin market continues to face pressure due to limited demand growth. Both PE and PP are in a situation of loose supply - demand and weak cost support. The market is expected to remain weak in the short - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6883 yuan/ton (+4), PP main contract at 6583 yuan/ton (+18). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6560 yuan/ton (-20). LL North China basis was -3 yuan/ton (-4), LL East China basis 67 yuan/ton (-4), PP East China basis -23 yuan/ton (-38) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 515.6 yuan/ton (+23.5), PP oil - based production profit was -94.4 yuan/ton (+23.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 122.3 yuan/ton (+12.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -147.2 yuan/ton (+3.0), PP import profit was -560.1 yuan/ton (+13.0), PP export profit was 29.7 dollars/ton (-1.6) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream woven开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, high inventory, and weakening cost support from falling oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new production and restart of some devices. Demand growth is limited, mainly for rigid needs. Cost support is weakening. Future focus is on cost - side and macro - policy impacts [2]. - **PP**: The weakening of PP is dragged by falling oil and propane prices, and loose supply - demand. Supply is increasing with new production expected. Demand growth is insufficient, inventory is high, and cost support is weak. Attention should be paid to propane supply and PDH marginal device operations [3]. Strategy - **Single - Side**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; expect short - term weak and volatile market [4]. - **Inter - Period**: Conduct L01 - L05 reverse arbitrage; PP01 - PP05 reverse arbitrage [4]. - **Inter - Variety**: Short PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the expected trend for both being weakly volatile today. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino-US macro risks contribute to this outlook, while the operating conditions of agricultural film are stable, and industrial inventories are moderately high [4][6] LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices have continued to decline. On the supply - demand side, the operation of agricultural film is stable with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for other films is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6920 (+10) [4] Key Factors - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 46, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish. The PE comprehensive inventory is 58.0 million tons (+3.7), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [5] PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, and Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has increased but is still weak year - on - year. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0) [6] Key Factors - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 1, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.0%, which is neutral. The PP comprehensive inventory is 67.9 million tons (-0.3), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [7] Market Data LLDPE - Spot delivery product price: 6920, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6874, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 12685, 0 change. PE comprehensive factory inventory: 58.0, 0 change. PE social inventory: 546, 0 change [8] PP - Spot delivery product price: 6550, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6551, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 14313, 0 change. PP comprehensive factory inventory: 67.9, 0 change. PP social inventory: 349, 0 change [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a significant increase in 2020 and 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been steadily increasing, with relatively large growth rates in 2020, 2023, and 2024. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures are trading in a narrow range at low levels. The fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, with prices being dragged down by crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. Looking ahead to next week, the Sino-US game continues, crude oil is under pressure, and cost support is weakening. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline rate may slow down [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6,874, 6,907, and 6,931 respectively, down -55, -61, and -73 from the day before, with declines of -0.79%, -0.88%, and -1.04%. The trading volumes were 210,425, 21,803, and 728, and the open interests were 565,412, 62,245, and 863, with changes of -1,233, +1,314, and +201. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -33, -24, and 57 respectively, compared to -39, -36, and 75 previously [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6,551, 6,603, and 6,633 respectively, down -67, -67, and -58 from the day before, with declines of -1.01%, -1.00%, and -0.87%. The trading volumes were 219,232, 22,551, and 616, and the open interests were 661,751, 118,326, and 4,188, with changes of -233, +2,465, and +252. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -52, -30, and 82 respectively, compared to -52, -21, and 73 previously [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2,274 yuan/ton, 6,160 yuan/ton, 533 US dollars/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 8,800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2,321 yuan/ton, 6,215 yuan/ton, 533 US dollars/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 8,800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6,900 - 7,500 yuan/ton, 6,900 - 7,150 yuan/ton, and 7,100 - 7,550 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 6,950 - 7,500 yuan/ton, 6,900 - 7,150 (8,100 - 8,250) yuan/ton, and 7,150 - 7,600 yuan/ton previously. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6,450 - 6,650 yuan/ton, 6,450 - 6,550 yuan/ton, and 6,500 - 6,650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 6,450 - 6,650 yuan/ton, 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and 6,500 - 6,650 yuan/ton previously [2] News - On Friday (October 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.54 per barrel, up $0.08 from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.14%, with a trading range of $56.6 - $57.72. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.29 per barrel, up $0.23 from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.38%, with a trading range of $60.14 - $61.47 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP are rated neutral; L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 are recommended for reverse spreads; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3] Core View - For PE, the supply side has seen a more - than - expected return due to the restart of many previously shut - down plants. The demand side has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but the demand follow - up is slow. The cost side is supported by rising international oil prices, yet the PE trend is still suppressed by the supply side [2] - For PP, the supply pressure remains high despite the decline in overall PP start - up rate. The demand side is in a seasonally improving period, but the recovery is slow. The cost side has a slight rebound in international oil prices. In the short term, PP demand improves but is limited by supply, and low profits restrict its downside [2] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton (+37); PP main contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton (+35). LL North China spot was 7,080 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot was 7,110 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,730 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 62 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis was - 32 yuan/ton (-37), PP East China basis was - 147 yuan/ton (-35) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE start - up rate was 80.4% (+2.3%), PP start - up rate was 74.9% (-1.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 177.5 yuan/ton (-139.0), PP oil - based production profit was - 442.5 yuan/ton (-139.0), PDH - based PP production profit was - 267.8 yuan/ton (-8.2) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 148.9 yuan/ton (-57.6), PP import profit was - 528.9 yuan/ton (+2.4), PP export profit was 34.9 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate was 26.8% (+2.6%), PE downstream packaging film start - up rate was 51.8% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate was 43.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate was 61.4% (-0.1%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side has more plants restarting than planned to shut down; demand side has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking but slow follow - up; cost side is supported by rising oil prices, yet the trend is suppressed by supply [2] - **PP**: Supply side has increased supply pressure despite more plants likely to restart; demand side is in a seasonally improving period but with slow recovery; cost side has a slight rebound in oil prices and strong propane. Short - term demand improves but is limited by supply, and low profits restrict downside [2] Strategy - **Single - sided**: L, PP are neutral [3] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [3] - **Cross - variety**: No recommendation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Recently, the cost - end oil price has rebounded, and the external propane price has risen strongly. With the support of macro - sentiment, polyolefins have rebounded slightly with fluctuations. Some upstream petrochemical plants have shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There is an expectation of new capacity from ExxonMobil, and Daxie Petrochemical is continuously increasing production, so the supply is still under pressure. The downstream demand is in the "Golden September" seasonal improvement stage, with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. However, the downstream mainly maintains rigid procurement, and the demand fulfillment rate is still slow. PP production profit has shrunk significantly, and the cost - end support is strong [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,245 yuan/ton (+11), PP main contract at 6,982 yuan/ton (+12). LL North China spot was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7,170 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,780 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 45 yuan/ton (-11), LL East China basis was - 75 yuan/ton (-11), and PP East China basis was - 202 yuan/ton (-12) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 78.0% (-2.5%), PP operating rate was 76.8% (-3.1%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 170.9 yuan/ton (-70.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 459.1 yuan/ton (-70.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 303.0 yuan/ton (-12.1) [2] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 92.1 yuan/ton (+10.2), PP import profit was - 482.1 yuan/ton (-9.8), and PP export profit was 29.1 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 24.1% (+3.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 51.3% (+0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.6% (+0.1%) [2] Market Analysis - Cost - end factors and macro - sentiment have driven polyolefins to rebound slightly. Supply is under pressure due to potential new capacity and production increases. Downstream demand is in a seasonal improvement stage, but the demand fulfillment is slow, and PP cost - end support is strong [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral; inter - period strategy is 01 - 05 reverse spread; no inter - variety strategy [4]

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated September 4, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policies as positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, and the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has slightly increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+23,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films has recovered but is still weaker than in previous years. The industrial inventory is neutral [4] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6950 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+43,000 tons), showing a bearish trend [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract has decreased but is still long, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [9] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons [18]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Polyolefin Weekly Report" and dated August 22, 2025 [2] Market Performance Summary - Last week, L01 rose 0.39% to close at 7380 with a reduction of about 22,000 contracts in positions PP01 fell 0.65% to close at 7038 with an increase of about 45,000 contracts in positions [5] - Technically, recent L and PP main contracts are trading near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend [5] - According to the main positions in Dayue's five - major indicators, the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for recent L and PP are both bearish [5] - The basis of the L main contract is - 80, and that of the PP main contract is - 8, both main contracts are at a premium [5] Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2% On August 20, Bloomberg reported that a comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated to address long - term overcapacity, expected to be introduced in September [5] - Supply and demand: The overall demand for PE agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film - making start - up rate is low PP downstream is gradually moving into the peak season, with a slight improvement in demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc [5] - Inventory: The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high [5] Forecast - It is expected that the L and PP main contracts will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend this week [5] Market Data Tables Futures and Spot Market Data | Contract | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Change Rate | Spot Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Production Type | Latest Profit | Weekly Profit Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L01 | 7380 | 29 | 0.39% | L Delivery Goods | 7300 | 50 | L Oil - based | - 177 | - 26 | | L05 | 7392 | 46 | 0.62% | PE Comprehensive Warehouse | 564 | 59 | L Coal - based | 805 | - 158 | | L09 | 7321 | 15 | 0.20% | PE Social Inventory | 557 | - 12 | | | | | PP01 | 7038 | - 46 | - 0.65% | PP Delivery Goods | 7030 | - 70 | PP Oil - based | - 154 | - 12 | | PP05 | 7059 | - 21 | - 0.30% | PP Comprehensive Warehouse | 572 | - 15 | PP Coal - based | 362 | - 55 | | PP09 | 6993 | - 65 | - 0.93% | PP Social Inventory | 261 | - 10 | PDH | - 458 | - 48 | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PE Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 1869.5 | 1599.84 | 1379.72 | 46.3% | 2979.56 | 39.55 | 2979.56 | | | 2019 | | 1964.5 | 5.1% | 1765.08 | 1638.16 | 48.1% | 3403.24 | 36.61 | 3406.18 | 14.3% | | 2020 | | 2314.5 | 17.8% | 2008.47 | 1828.16 | 47.7% | 3836.63 | 37.83 | 3835.41 | 12.6% | | 2021 | | 2754.5 | 19.0% | 2328.34 | 1407.76 | 37.7% | 3736.1 | 37.57 | 3736.36 | - 2.6% | | 2022 | | 2929.5 | 6.4% | 2532.19 | 1274.55 | 33.5% | 3806.74 | 38.93 | 3805.38 | 1.8% | | 2023 | | 3189.5 | 8.9% | 2807.37 | 1264.72 | 31.1% | 4072.09 | 41.43 | 4069.59 | 6.9% | | 2024 | | 3584.5 | 12.4% | 2773.8 | 1360.32 | 32.9% | 4134.12 | 47.8 | 4127.75 | 1.4% | | 2025E | | 4319.5 | 20.5% | | | | | | | [16] Polypropylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, L01 rose 0.1% to close at 7351 with a total position reduction of about 6100 lots, while PP01 fell 0.1% to close at 7084 with a total position reduction of about 6300 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend. - The main position indicators in Dayue's five major indicators show that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are bearish recently. - The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing. - Fundamentally, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to the fundamentals. Oil prices fluctuated and declined in the short term. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall demand for PE agricultural films fell short of expectations, and the film - making start - up rate was low. The downstream of PP is gradually moving into the peak season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. has improved slightly. - The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L01 rose 0.1% to 7351 with a reduction of about 6100 lots, and PP01 fell 0.1% to 7084 with a reduction of about 6300 lots [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend [5]. - **Basis Situation**: The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing [5]. 3.2 Production Profit | Contract | Latest | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | L Oil - based | - 151 | 126 | | L Coal - based | 963 | - 7 | | PP Oil - based | - 141 | 107 | | PP Coal - based | 418 | - 59 | | PDH | - 411 | - 144 | [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [19]. 3.4 Inventory - The polyolefin industry chain has high inventory. There are also multiple inventory trend charts for PE and PP, including comprehensive inventory, social inventory, and warehouse receipts [5][15][21][24][27][30] 3.5 Start - up Rate - There are start - up rate trend charts for PE and PP, showing the start - up rate changes throughout the year [33][36] 3.6 Profit - There are production cash - flow trend charts for PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) [39][42] 3.7 External Market Price - There are charts showing the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, as well as the US - dollar - denominated prices of PE and PP [45][48][50] 3.8 Downstream - There are charts showing the average start - up rates of PE and PP downstream industries [53][56]