Core Viewpoint - BlackRock maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market, anticipating a "bull market" in both stocks and bonds in the second half of 2025, driven by gradually warming policy expectations [2][3]. Economic Outlook - China's export data exceeded expectations in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in June, but pressures are expected to increase in the second half due to a weakening real estate market and softening consumption in the restaurant sector [3]. - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience, with companies demonstrating strong adaptability and product innovation. Positive changes in macro control and industry regulation since September last year have increased foreign investment interest in China [3]. - Policy expectations are anticipated to rise, particularly after September, with nominal interest rates having significantly decreased, yet real interest rates remain high. Monetary policy is expected to stabilize, with potential for increased support [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - In the current low-interest-rate environment, BlackRock favors a "bull market" in stocks over bonds, recommending a portfolio centered on equities, with government bonds serving as stabilizers and credit bonds maintained at a neutral level [3][4]. - Investment focus should be on three asset categories: high dividend and strong free cash flow stocks, broad consumption sectors like automotive and electronics benefiting from policy support, and traditional high-growth sectors such as AI and healthcare, which have long-term growth potential despite short-term profitability concerns [4]. A-Share Market Expectations - The emphasis on economic development by the government and the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption are expected to alleviate profit pressures on listed companies compared to last year, leading to an improved operating environment [7]. - The Hong Kong stock market presents opportunities in the Hang Seng Technology sector, which is currently reasonably valued, and in high-quality traditional enterprises that may see valuation increases if they report strong mid-year results [7]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing an "asset shortage," with extreme compression of term spreads and credit spreads, leading to high valuations and low yield levels [8]. - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support, which underpins the bond market's fundamentals. Despite high valuations, as long as the policy tone remains unchanged, the outlook for the bond market remains positive [8].

Group 1 - The bond bull market remains intact, with potential for further declines in long-term interest rates, but a better trading window is needed, particularly around late July to early August [1][4][5] - Recent adjustments in the bond market are driven by risk appetite and asset pricing effects, alongside central bank's buyout reverse repo operations, indicating limited time and space for adjustments [1][2] - Economic data shows divergence, with strong industrial and service production but slowing retail sales and investment growth, highlighting the core contradiction in domestic demand and expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The widening gap between nominal and real economic growth rates indicates persistent low price pressures, with Q2 GDP growth at 5.2% and nominal GDP growth at 3.9%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from Q1 [1] - The supply-demand imbalance continues to deepen, primarily due to slowing investment growth, with external demand growth significantly outpacing domestic production and demand [1][3] - The "anti-involution" and urban renewal policies will need further observation for their impact on demand, with Q3 economic data being crucial for assessing internal economic momentum [2][4] Group 3 - The liquidity situation is influenced by tax payment periods, with significant fluctuations in funding rates observed around July 15, when major tax submissions are due [2] - The central bank's operations, including a substantial reverse repo on July 15, signal a commitment to support the market, with a net injection of 17.735 billion yuan on that day [2] - The current relationship between short and long-term interest rates is stable, with no signs of inversion, suggesting a low probability of continued funding stress [2][3] Group 4 - The "dual bull" market for stocks and bonds may remain a key theme, with bank stocks rising due to lower interest rates and increased attractiveness of dividend stocks [4] - The ongoing bull market in bonds is not fundamentally threatened by the current stock market dynamics, as the A-share market is not easily defined by fundamental bull trends [4][5] - The upcoming political meetings and potential tariff increases in August could influence market dynamics, with expectations for further declines in funding rates post-tax period [4][5]

Market Overview - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.14%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.29% [4] - The best-performing industries on July 16 were social services (+1.13%), automotive (+1.07%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+0.95%), light industry manufacturing (+0.94%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.85%). The worst-performing industries were steel (-1.28%), banking (-0.74%), non-ferrous metals (-0.45%), non-bank financials (-0.43%), and construction decoration (-0.42%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 16 was 14,617.34 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that with the gradual implementation of tariffs, external demand is expected to weaken, signaling an approaching downturn in exports. Attention is drawn to the impact of tariff conflicts on companies establishing overseas warehouses for cross-border stockpiling, which may disrupt export rhythms [5] - The macroeconomic deep report highlights that the economic recovery in June shows a good momentum, with the actual GDP growth in the second quarter at 5.2%. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant divergence between supply and demand [6]

Economic Overview - In June, the actual GDP growth for Q2 was 5.2%, aligning with market expectations, while nominal GDP growth slowed by 0.7 percentage points to approximately 3.9%[1] - The industrial added value for June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.5%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale industries in Q2 was 74.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating potential overcapacity[3][23] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of 2025 was 248,654 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%, which was below market expectations of 3.8%[5] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, and real estate development investment fell by 11.2%[7][39] - The marginal slowdown in investment demand is attributed to concerns over medium- to long-term uncertainties following tariff adjustments[5][39] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June rose by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point decline[4][31] - The "618" shopping festival significantly supported retail sales, with e-commerce sales reaching 8,556 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year[33] - Automotive sales showed robust growth, with June retail sales increasing by 4.6% year-on-year, despite price promotions impacting overall retail revenue[36] Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, driven by a potential easing of Sino-US trade relations and risk-averse funds supporting market sentiment[2][21] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low expectations for large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2][21]

Core Viewpoints - The current liquidity easing is primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits, leading to a market logic that favors equities over bonds, rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [3][5][6] - Unlike previous instances where household deposit relocation occurred after economic expectations improved, this time it is policy-driven, with the underlying fundamentals still in a bottoming phase, resulting in strong market expectations for further central bank easing [3][6][19] - Continuous relocation of household deposits may raise concerns for the central bank regarding idle funds, and the necessity for further loans to stimulate investment is decreasing, unless specific adverse economic events occur [3][7][19] Financial Data Summary - In June 2025, new social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, up from 2.29 trillion yuan previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2][25] - M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while new M1 increased by 4.6%, indicating a shift in liquidity dynamics [2][28] - The increase in corporate loans was significant, with a total of 2.24 trillion yuan in new loans, reflecting a strong demand for credit [21][27] Analysis of Liquidity Dynamics - When household deposit relocation is the main driver of liquidity, the market logic tends to favor equities, creating a seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [5][12] - The current environment suggests a preference for equities over bonds, as household deposit relocation is not linked to improved economic expectations but rather to policy initiatives [6][15] - The central bank's future actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both equity and bond markets [9][19]

Group 1: Macro Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion, up from 2.29 trillion previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% compared to 8.7% before[1] - M2 growth was 8.3% year-on-year, an increase from 7.9% previously, while new M1 (新口径) grew by 4.6% compared to 2.3% before[1] - The current market logic reflects a "look at stocks, act like bonds" approach rather than a dual bull market for stocks and bonds, primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Policy Implications - The current liquidity easing is mainly driven by policy rather than economic improvement, leading to strong market expectations for further central bank easing[2] - The central bank's probability of further easing is decreasing unless triggered by significant adverse economic events or market shocks[2] - Future central bank actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both stock and bond markets[2] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - In June, corporate loans increased by 1.77 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion, while household loans rose by 597.6 billion[1] - The social financing scale in June showed an increase of 4.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, reflecting a significant rise in government bond issuance[1] - The total amount of deposits increased by 3.21 trillion in June, with household deposits rising by 2.47 trillion, indicating a strong inflow into the banking system[1]

7月14日各期限债券迎来不同程度调整。截至昨日15:00，10年期国债收益率报1.6710%，30年期国债收益率报 1.8825%，均创一个月以来新高。财政部发行20年期、30年期债券利率均高于预期，受此影响二级市场收益率同步走 高。 从资金分流角度，股市近期站上3500点对债市有短期扰动。然而考虑到投向股市和债市的资金风险偏好差异巨大，股 市资金对债市资金并不会形成明显的挤出效应。并且，近两年来上证指数和10年期债券收益率表现出一定的负相关 性。因此，股市与债市相互作用并不强，较弱的基本面和低利率的环境共同促成了今年的股债双牛。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资 者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做 好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the correlation between stocks and bonds, exploring whether the "see - stock - do - bond" approach will become a new trading theme in the bond market. It analyzes the stock - bond pattern this year, historical "stock - bond seesaw" situations, and provides an outlook for the bond market. Currently, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more prominent, and the bond market may face certain disturbances, but the liquidity environment is still relatively favorable [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Stock - Bond Pattern Deduction - In the first quarter, it was a "tight money + wide credit" environment, with a typical stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The stock market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6.8% and the CSI 300 rising 6.0% from January 6 to March 17. The bond market was in shock consolidation, with short - end yields rising significantly [11][13][14]. - In the second quarter, it shifted to a "wide money + wide credit" environment, showing a stock - bond double - bull pattern. The stock market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 11.2% and the CSI 300 rising 9.7% from April 1 to June 30. The bond market had a recovery, with short - end yields falling significantly [11][18][19]. 3.2 Historical Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - **2016.10 - 2018.01: Economic Recovery + Monetary Tightening, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 15%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 134BP. The economic fundamentals were good, and the central bank tightened monetary policy, leading to a tight money supply [24][27][31]. - **2020.04 - 2020.12: Economic Repair + Monetary Neutrality, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 27%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 79BP. The economy recovered, and the central bank's monetary policy returned to normal. The supply pressure of government bonds increased, tightening the money supply [32][34][39]. - **2022.11 - 2023.02: Policy Intensification + Expectation Change, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 11%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 27BP. Policy adjustments boosted the expectation of economic recovery, and the bond market was affected by the negative feedback of wealth management redemptions [40][41][45]. - **2024.09 - 2024.10: Policy Tailwind + Institutional Profit - Taking, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 28%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 15BP. A series of policies boosted economic recovery expectations, and the central bank's monetary policy "good news was exhausted." Institutional profit - taking increased the bond market adjustment risk [47][49][55]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook: See - Stock - Do - Bond? - The current bond market trading is crowded, while the stock's cost - performance is relatively high. The central bank's overall further easing policy may be limited in the short term, and the money supply may maintain a "low - volatility and rigid" state [5]. - The "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more obvious, and the logic of "see - stock - do - bond" may disturb the bond market sentiment. It is advisable to moderately participate in curve steepening trading, with a strategy of "defending and squeezing spreads at the short - to - medium end + allocating on dips at the long end" [59][60][65].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, indicating ongoing economic recovery but with increased uncertainty in the economic fundamentals[1] - The production index in June is 51.0%, rising 0.3 percentage points from May, suggesting a return to normal operations in manufacturing[3] - The new orders index is at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, reflecting a moderate recovery in domestic demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI is 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI is 50.4%, all indicating expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The high-energy consumption industry PMI is 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, showing improvement in the sector[1] - The strategic emerging industries PMI (EPMI) fell to 47.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from May, indicating a seasonal decline in industry performance[16] Group 3: Market Outlook - The expectation for the second half of the year is a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2] - The overall GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.7% anticipated for Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively[20]

Core Viewpoint - The current macro asset allocation logic is primarily driven by the "look at stocks to do bonds" approach, as the main liquidity improvement is due to the migration of household deposits rather than central bank monetary easing [2][9][21]. Group 1: Macro Asset Allocation Analysis - Analyzing the stock-bond relationship is crucial in macro asset allocation, where the environment can either favor "look at stocks to do bonds" or "look at bonds to do stocks" [8][13]. - In a "look at stocks to do bonds" environment, the upward movement of stock prices influences bond trading behavior, while in a "look at bonds to do stocks" environment, falling interest rates affect stock market valuations [8][13]. - The current liquidity improvement is characterized by a significant migration of household deposits to non-bank financial institutions, with approximately 6.2 trillion yuan moving in the first five months of 2025, marking the highest level since 2009 [9][21]. Group 2: Special Characteristics of Current Liquidity - The current migration of household deposits is unique as it does not follow an improvement in economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where such migrations occurred after economic recovery [3][28]. - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down has limited the extent to which risk appetite can express downward movements in the stock market [4][28]. - Financial regulations established in 2017 and 2022 have heightened vigilance against financial practices that lead to asset bubbles, impacting the current liquidity dynamics [5][28]. Group 3: Implications of Current Trends - The current environment suggests that as the stock market strengthens, the risk of systemic asset price bubbles increases, leading to tighter monetary policy and pressure on the bond market [30]. - Conversely, if the stock market weakens, the central bank's focus on stabilizing market expectations increases, potentially leading to short-term dual bullish trends in both stocks and bonds [30].