Group 1 - The report suggests that the bond market interest rates may have reached a peak after an unexpected adjustment, driven by three main factors: tight liquidity, rising inflation expectations due to "anti-involution," and the impact of a rising equity market on the bond market [4][7][11] - The analysis indicates that the tight liquidity is not a causal factor for the bond market adjustment but rather a synchronous relationship, with the central bank's recent operations showing an intention to alleviate the negative feedback loop [4][7][11] - The report anticipates that the inflation expectations driven by "anti-involution" will not persist for long, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unlikely to turn positive within the year, leading to a gradual calming of market expectations [4][7][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the equity market is expected to continue rising, but this does not necessarily imply an increase in interest rates. The upward momentum in the equity market will likely return to expectations of improved national governance and technological leadership in economic transformation [8][11] - The report recommends gradual participation in liquid interest rate bonds, such as 10-year government bonds yielding over 1.7% and 30-year government bonds yielding over 1.95%, while advising caution with less liquid credit bonds due to potential downside risks [11][12] - The report notes that the bond market experienced a significant adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.7%, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across various maturities [35][36][41]

Core Viewpoint - The document emphasizes that the research material is intended solely for professional investors associated with Huachuang Securities, highlighting the importance of appropriate investor suitability management [1][3]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to provide timely exchanges of viewpoints specifically for professional investors in the context of new media [3]. - The material is derived from previously published research reports by Huachuang Securities, and any discrepancies should refer to the complete content of the original reports [4]. - The opinions and analyses presented may change without notice based on subsequent reports from Huachuang Securities [4].

Group 1 - The report argues that an increase in the equity market does not necessarily lead to a rise in interest rates, indicating a potential for a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds [5][8][15] - Historical patterns show that both scenarios of rising equity markets with either rising or falling interest rates have occurred, suggesting that the underlying reasons for stock market increases are crucial [9][11] - The current stock market rise is attributed to improved governance expectations and economic transformation, rather than a significant increase in household deposits moving into equities [11][13] Group 2 - The report highlights that the fixed income market is experiencing a high issuance of interest rate bonds, with an expected issuance of 940.8 billion yuan this week, indicating a robust supply environment [16][18] - Recent data shows a significant increase in reverse repos and a net injection of liquidity by the central bank, which has implications for bond market dynamics [23][24] - The report notes that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen above seasonal averages, reflecting increased trading activity and potential adjustments in investor strategies [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown strong performance and liquidity, with significant capital inflows and a favorable market environment driven by a loose monetary policy [3][4][5]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 17, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has increased by 0.38% in July [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 9.152 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [4]. - The fund's net inflow was 45.0394 million yuan, with a total of 1.441 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [4]. - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.64% over the past year, ranking 5th out of 412 in the index bond fund category [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trading volume for the ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 13.16% and a transaction volume of 1.203 billion yuan [3]. - The central bank's current stance is accommodative, supporting liquidity in the market amid global uncertainties [3]. - The insurance industry has raised over 74 billion yuan in capital this year, indicating a growing demand for capital [3]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown since the ETF's inception is 6.89%, with a tracking error of 0.035% over the past month [5]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, reflecting the overall performance of corresponding government bonds [5].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - BlackRock's Chief China Economist highlighted that China's export data exceeded expectations in the first half, with June exports growing by 5.8% year-on-year, but pressures are expected to increase in the second half due to a weakening real estate market and softening consumption in the restaurant sector [3] - The company noted that while there are short-term pressures on demand, recent policy adjustments could benefit long-term economic structure improvements, enhancing foreign investment interest in the Chinese market [3] - The expectation is for policy measures to gain momentum towards the end of September, with nominal interest rates having significantly decreased, although real interest rates remain high [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - BlackRock's investment strategy in the current low-interest-rate environment favors equities, suggesting a core allocation to stocks, with interest rate bonds serving as stabilizers and credit bonds maintained at a neutral stance [3][4] - The focus is on three asset categories: stocks with strong cash flow value, broad consumption sectors benefiting from policy support, and traditional high-growth sectors like AI and healthcare [4] - The importance of gold as a hedging tool in asset allocation is expected to continue to rise, with a positive outlook on U.S. stocks despite their current high valuations due to solid fundamentals [4] Group 3: A-Share and Hong Kong Market Outlook - BlackRock's Chief Equity Investment Officer expressed optimism for the A-share market in the second half, citing government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and improving the operating environment for listed companies [6] - For the Hong Kong market, potential opportunities are identified in the Hang Seng Technology sector and high-quality traditional enterprises, with expectations for valuation improvements if mid-year reports show strong performance [6] Group 4: Debt Market Insights - The debt market is experiencing an "asset shortage," with extreme compression of term spreads and credit spreads, leading to high valuations and low yield levels [7] - The expectation is for the central bank to maintain liquidity support, which will underpin the debt market, although the current high valuations make the market sensitive to risks [7]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market, anticipating a "bull market" in both stocks and bonds in the second half of 2025, driven by gradually warming policy expectations [2][3]. Economic Outlook - China's export data exceeded expectations in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in June, but pressures are expected to increase in the second half due to a weakening real estate market and softening consumption in the restaurant sector [3]. - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience, with companies demonstrating strong adaptability and product innovation. Positive changes in macro control and industry regulation since September last year have increased foreign investment interest in China [3]. - Policy expectations are anticipated to rise, particularly after September, with nominal interest rates having significantly decreased, yet real interest rates remain high. Monetary policy is expected to stabilize, with potential for increased support [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - In the current low-interest-rate environment, BlackRock favors a "bull market" in stocks over bonds, recommending a portfolio centered on equities, with government bonds serving as stabilizers and credit bonds maintained at a neutral level [3][4]. - Investment focus should be on three asset categories: high dividend and strong free cash flow stocks, broad consumption sectors like automotive and electronics benefiting from policy support, and traditional high-growth sectors such as AI and healthcare, which have long-term growth potential despite short-term profitability concerns [4]. A-Share Market Expectations - The emphasis on economic development by the government and the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption are expected to alleviate profit pressures on listed companies compared to last year, leading to an improved operating environment [7]. - The Hong Kong stock market presents opportunities in the Hang Seng Technology sector, which is currently reasonably valued, and in high-quality traditional enterprises that may see valuation increases if they report strong mid-year results [7]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing an "asset shortage," with extreme compression of term spreads and credit spreads, leading to high valuations and low yield levels [8]. - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support, which underpins the bond market's fundamentals. Despite high valuations, as long as the policy tone remains unchanged, the outlook for the bond market remains positive [8].

Group 1 - The bond bull market remains intact, with potential for further declines in long-term interest rates, but a better trading window is needed, particularly around late July to early August [1][4][5] - Recent adjustments in the bond market are driven by risk appetite and asset pricing effects, alongside central bank's buyout reverse repo operations, indicating limited time and space for adjustments [1][2] - Economic data shows divergence, with strong industrial and service production but slowing retail sales and investment growth, highlighting the core contradiction in domestic demand and expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The widening gap between nominal and real economic growth rates indicates persistent low price pressures, with Q2 GDP growth at 5.2% and nominal GDP growth at 3.9%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from Q1 [1] - The supply-demand imbalance continues to deepen, primarily due to slowing investment growth, with external demand growth significantly outpacing domestic production and demand [1][3] - The "anti-involution" and urban renewal policies will need further observation for their impact on demand, with Q3 economic data being crucial for assessing internal economic momentum [2][4] Group 3 - The liquidity situation is influenced by tax payment periods, with significant fluctuations in funding rates observed around July 15, when major tax submissions are due [2] - The central bank's operations, including a substantial reverse repo on July 15, signal a commitment to support the market, with a net injection of 17.735 billion yuan on that day [2] - The current relationship between short and long-term interest rates is stable, with no signs of inversion, suggesting a low probability of continued funding stress [2][3] Group 4 - The "dual bull" market for stocks and bonds may remain a key theme, with bank stocks rising due to lower interest rates and increased attractiveness of dividend stocks [4] - The ongoing bull market in bonds is not fundamentally threatened by the current stock market dynamics, as the A-share market is not easily defined by fundamental bull trends [4][5] - The upcoming political meetings and potential tariff increases in August could influence market dynamics, with expectations for further declines in funding rates post-tax period [4][5]

Market Overview - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.14%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.29% [4] - The best-performing industries on July 16 were social services (+1.13%), automotive (+1.07%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+0.95%), light industry manufacturing (+0.94%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.85%). The worst-performing industries were steel (-1.28%), banking (-0.74%), non-ferrous metals (-0.45%), non-bank financials (-0.43%), and construction decoration (-0.42%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 16 was 14,617.34 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that with the gradual implementation of tariffs, external demand is expected to weaken, signaling an approaching downturn in exports. Attention is drawn to the impact of tariff conflicts on companies establishing overseas warehouses for cross-border stockpiling, which may disrupt export rhythms [5] - The macroeconomic deep report highlights that the economic recovery in June shows a good momentum, with the actual GDP growth in the second quarter at 5.2%. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant divergence between supply and demand [6]

Economic Overview - In June, the actual GDP growth for Q2 was 5.2%, aligning with market expectations, while nominal GDP growth slowed by 0.7 percentage points to approximately 3.9%[1] - The industrial added value for June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.5%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale industries in Q2 was 74.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating potential overcapacity[3][23] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of 2025 was 248,654 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%, which was below market expectations of 3.8%[5] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, and real estate development investment fell by 11.2%[7][39] - The marginal slowdown in investment demand is attributed to concerns over medium- to long-term uncertainties following tariff adjustments[5][39] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June rose by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point decline[4][31] - The "618" shopping festival significantly supported retail sales, with e-commerce sales reaching 8,556 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year[33] - Automotive sales showed robust growth, with June retail sales increasing by 4.6% year-on-year, despite price promotions impacting overall retail revenue[36] Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, driven by a potential easing of Sino-US trade relations and risk-averse funds supporting market sentiment[2][21] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low expectations for large-scale domestic demand stimulus[2][21]

Core Viewpoints - The current liquidity easing is primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits, leading to a market logic that favors equities over bonds, rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [3][5][6] - Unlike previous instances where household deposit relocation occurred after economic expectations improved, this time it is policy-driven, with the underlying fundamentals still in a bottoming phase, resulting in strong market expectations for further central bank easing [3][6][19] - Continuous relocation of household deposits may raise concerns for the central bank regarding idle funds, and the necessity for further loans to stimulate investment is decreasing, unless specific adverse economic events occur [3][7][19] Financial Data Summary - In June 2025, new social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, up from 2.29 trillion yuan previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2][25] - M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while new M1 increased by 4.6%, indicating a shift in liquidity dynamics [2][28] - The increase in corporate loans was significant, with a total of 2.24 trillion yuan in new loans, reflecting a strong demand for credit [21][27] Analysis of Liquidity Dynamics - When household deposit relocation is the main driver of liquidity, the market logic tends to favor equities, creating a seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [5][12] - The current environment suggests a preference for equities over bonds, as household deposit relocation is not linked to improved economic expectations but rather to policy initiatives [6][15] - The central bank's future actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both equity and bond markets [9][19]