Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelters, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelters [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, refined copper imports have declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons monthly, raising net import pressure on China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 85%, leading to expectations of a weaker dollar, which enhances the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low position of copper holdings below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The combination of macroeconomic rate cut expectations and tightening supply supports copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas limit the extent of price increases, resulting in a short-term strong oscillation in copper prices [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral to slightly bullish outlook. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to move in a range. The market is waiting for consumption guidance during the peak season in September. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing an improved business climate compared to the previous month, which is a neutral factor. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 80,520, with a basis of 410, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is neutral. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 3, copper inventories decreased by 200 to 158,575 tons, and the SHFE copper inventories decreased by 1,950 tons to 79,748 tons compared to the previous week, which is neutral. [2] - **Market Trend**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish. [2] - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish. [2] - **Expectation**: Inventories are rising, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The market is waiting for consumption guidance during the peak season in September. Currently, the long - short contradiction is not prominent, and copper prices will move in a range. [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Domestic policy easing is a positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative factor. [3] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. [20] - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons. [22] Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level. [14] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined. [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main contract reached a maximum of 80,020. Due to the sharp decline of A - shares and the decrease of market risk preference, Shanghai copper tumbled in the late trading and closed down. The spot price rose by 260 to 80,160, and the premium dropped by 15 to 220. The increase in imported arrivals and high copper prices pressured the premium. However, upstream centralized production cuts are imminent, and the inventory pressure of holders is not large. The profit of spot imports expanded to 320, and the Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.08. The LME 0 - 3 contango remained at a high level. The opening of the import window will attract the transfer of LME copper inventory to China. The LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 158,775 tons. The overall inventory levels at home and abroad are not high. Coupled with the upcoming production cuts of domestic smelters and the peak season of downstream demand, the fundamental support has strengthened [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: With the macro - data such as European and American manufacturing PMI and US non - farm payrolls data to be released this week, the macro - data disturbances may increase. But under the background of the upward fundamental trend, copper prices should be mainly bought on dips [10]. Industry News - **Production Cut News**: On September 1, Capstone Copper announced that due to the successive failures of two ball - mill drive motors at its Mantoverde sulfide mine operation site in Chile within a week, the mine will temporarily cut production. One ball - mill motor failed on August 24, and the second one failed six days later. The plant will operate at half - capacity by bypassing the plant. The company plans to mitigate the impact through the plant maintenance work scheduled for late September. The management of Capstone expects that the repair work will take about four weeks, during which the copper concentrate production will lose 3,000 - 4,000 tons. An investigation into the root cause of the problem has also been initiated [11]. - **Mine Expansion News**: On September 1, the government of British Columbia approved Imperial Metals' plan to deepen and expand the Springerpit mine pit of the Mount Polley copper - gold mine, which will extend the mining life of the mine by about 8 years. The mine planning adjustment includes three major directions: deepening the existing open - pit mine; expanding the rock dumping area; and isolating the waste that may produce acidic substances to the old "Cariboo Open - Pit" area when the mine is closed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper fundamentals are improving, with downstream demand rising and raw material supply shortages affecting refined copper production. The macro - economy shows resilience, and the good US economic data and demand resilience boost market risk sentiment. The price is expected to rise, with a strength analysis of being relatively strong and a price range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In trading strategies, with the marginal improvement of fundamentals and a slight recovery in macro - sentiment, hold long positions unilaterally. For spread trading, the low domestic inventory is conducive to positive carry arbitrage. Given the low copper volatility and increasing macro - disturbance risks in the future, pay attention to opportunities to go long on volatility [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: COMEX copper volatility dropped significantly, while the volatility of SHFE copper, INE copper, and LME copper increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 15%, a significant drop from before [14]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened, and the LME copper spot discount was large. The SHFE copper 09 - 10 spread decreased from a premium of 40 yuan/ton on August 22 to a premium of 30 yuan/ton on August 29. The LME0 - 3 discount on August 29 was 80.26 US dollars/ton, slightly wider than the previous week. The COMEX copper C - structure was stable [16][17]. - **Position**: COMEX copper positions decreased, SHFE copper and INE copper positions increased, and LME copper positions remained flat. SHFE copper positions increased by 24,600 lots to 486,200 lots [19]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased. LME commercial short net positions decreased from 44,700 lots to 43,700 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 26,032 lots on August 19 to 26,230 lots on August 26 [25]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium strengthened, and the bonded - zone copper premium recovered. The domestic copper spot premium widened from a premium of 150 yuan/ton on August 22 to a premium of 250 yuan/ton on August 29. The Yangshan Port copper premium recovered from 51 US dollars/ton on August 22 to 55 US dollars/ton on August 29 [29][31]. - **Inventory**: Global total inventory decreased, with domestic social inventory and bonded - zone inventory both decreasing. Global copper total inventory decreased from 605,600 tons on August 21 to 601,300 tons on August 28. Domestic social inventory decreased from 131,700 tons on August 21 to 127,100 tons on August 28, and bonded - zone inventory decreased from 79,300 tons to 75,100 tons [32][35]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio declined, weakening the logic of spot shortages overseas. The SHFE copper 09 contract position - to - inventory ratio is at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [36]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports increased year - on - year, but processing fees weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. The port inventory increased from 473,000 tons on August 22 to 550,000 tons on August 29. The spot TC on August 29 was - 41.48 US dollars/ton, with a smelting loss of 3,196 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week [39]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports decreased year - on - year, and domestic production increased slightly. In July, recycled copper imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and domestic recycled copper production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%. The scrap - refined copper spread narrowed, and the import loss of recycled copper widened [41][46]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports increased, and processing fees were at a low level. In July, blister copper imports were 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. The domestic processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, and the import processing fee was 95 US dollars/ton [51]. - **Refined Copper**: Production increased more than expected, imports increased, and the profit from copper spot imports expanded. In July, domestic refined copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. In July, imports were 296,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. The profit from spot imports increased from 65.62 yuan/ton on August 22 to 190.84 yuan/ton on August 29 [56]. 3.3 Demand End - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: In July, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The copper tube capacity utilization rate in July was at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the copper plate, strip, and foil capacity utilization rate was at a neutral - low level. The wire and cable capacity utilization rate declined in the week of August 28 [59]. - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees were at a neutral level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees were at a low level. As of August 29, the processing fee for copper rods in the power industry in East China was 725 yuan/ton, higher than 630 yuan/ton on August 22. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes on August 29 was 5,073 yuan/ton, higher than 5,071 yuan/ton on August 22 [64]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In July, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level [65]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods decreased, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable increased. In July, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level compared to the same period in history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level [68]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Apparent consumption was good, and power grid investment was an important support. From January to July, the cumulative actual consumption was 9.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.71%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2584 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.02%. The power grid investment from January to July was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [73]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: In July, domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%. In July, domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.32% [75].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The report maintains the judgment that copper prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the support level is raised to 78,500 yuan [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market fluctuated, with the closing price remaining unchanged at 79,190 yuan compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 spread on the disk turned positive to 10. The spot price dropped 40 to 79,545 yuan, and the spot premium rose 40 to 170 yuan. The scarcity of high - quality copper drove up the premium. The spot import profit was 160 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure widened to 85. The demand for Yangshan copper was average, and the warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained flat. The current tight domestic spot situation persists. The opening of the import window attracted the transfer of LME inventory to the domestic market. The LME inventory increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory accumulation in the LME in August was lower than expected. With the arrival of the domestic peak season in September, the low inventory strongly supports copper prices [10]. 2. Industry News - Zijin Mining's 2025 semi - annual report disclosed on the evening of August 26 showed that the company's mineral copper production reached 570,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%; mineral gold production was 41 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%; mineral silver was 224 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%; mineral zinc (lead) was 200,000 tons, equivalent lithium carbonate was 7,315 tons; iron concentrate was 1.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 58.0%; mine - produced molybdenum was 5,879 tons, tungsten was 2,137 tons, and cobalt was 30 tons [11]. - On August 26, foreign media reported that despite the encouragement of Trump administration officials, Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd., the operating company behind the controversial Pebble copper mine in Alaska, had not submitted a revised proposal to remove the obstacles to the stalled copper - gold project. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stated in an online status update on Monday that Northern Dynasty Minerals had not advanced "updated submission materials" for its proposed Pebble mine project, adding that "the agency has not received any relevant documents at present." This latest news came after the US Department of Justice decided last month to effectively uphold the veto of the project, shattering the hope of the Trump administration to remove regulatory obstacles [11]. - Industry online data showed that in July 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 1.6115 million units, unchanged year - on - year; sales were 1.6437 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The domestic and export markets of household air - conditioners presented a distinct differentiation pattern. The domestic sales scale was 1.0583 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the export scale was 0.5854 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5% [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The upward space for copper prices is limited due to the supply - side relief of tightness expectations, demand - side drag from high - price suppression of procurement and weak terminal orders, and the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 25, the SHFE main contract closed at 79,360 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premium and discount, the premium of premium copper dropped to 165 yuan/ton, that of flat - water copper decreased to 95 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper dropped by 50% to 15 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) maintained a discount of 78.38 US dollars/ton, with weak support at the spot end [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME inventory continuously declined, reaching 22,917 tons on August 25, a new low in nearly a month, while domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 155,000 tons. The narrowing of import losses to 250 yuan/ton repaired the inverted spread between the domestic and foreign markets, which may limit the activity of arbitrage funds [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term increments. Codelco resumed production at the El Teniente copper mine, strengthening the expectation of supply recovery in Chile. In China, Tibet Summit's copper production increased by 29.9% year - on - year, but Xingye Yinxing's copper production decreased by 44.2% year - on - year, showing a differentiation in mine expansion. Reduced import arrivals made the recent supply tight, but the gradual replenishment of domestic electrolytic copper may ease the gap [3]. - **Demand Side**: There is a structural differentiation in domestic demand, and the suppression effect of high copper prices is significant. The domestic sales of air conditioners increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and the computing power infrastructure drove copper use in the intelligent field. However, the weak orders of cable enterprises and the 5.44% decrease in the finished product inventory of refined copper rods reflected the insufficient carrying capacity of the real economy. The weakening of export demand further restricted the consumption elasticity [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The mainstream copper inventory in China dropped to 123,000 tons on August 25, but SMM predicted that the rebound of import arrivals this week and the consumption suppression by high prices would drive the inventory to rebound month - on - month. The LME inventory overseas continued to decline, but the COMEX inventory reached 272,500 short tons, and the pressure of hidden inventory still needed to be vigilant [5]. Market Summary - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The supply - side relief of tightness expectations and the demand - side drag, along with the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar, limit the upward space for copper prices [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 26, 2025, the price of SMM:1 copper was 79,780 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from August 25. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all decreased, with the wet - process copper's premium dropping by 50%. The SHFE price was 79,360 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from August 25. The LME inventory decreased by 830 tons, a 3.5% decline [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - As of August 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons month - on - month to 12.30 million tons, and it is expected to rebound this week. Codelco announced the resumption of production at some mines in Chile. In July 2025, China's copper product output was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Last week, some refined copper rod enterprises reduced production due to maintenance, with raw material inventory decreasing by 2.31% and finished product inventory decreasing by 5.44%. The ICSG reported a global copper surplus of 36,000 tons in June [9]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14][15][19][22][24][28][29][32] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The analysis of copper futures market data includes market data (price and basis changes, inventory changes), industry chain supply - demand (supply increase from mine resumption and domestic production, demand affected by high prices and export decline), and price trend judgment (high - level oscillation affected by supply, demand, and macro factors such as the US dollar and crude oil). The copper price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [36][37]

Report's Core View - Copper price is expected to be short - term oscillating and slightly stronger due to inventory increase, geopolitical disturbances, off - season consumption pressure, and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The factors considered include a neutral fundamental situation, a neutral basis, a neutral inventory situation, a bullish trend on the disk, bullish major positions, and other elements [2]. Industry Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and scrap copper policies have been relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 79360, and the basis is - 330, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a neutral situation [2]. Inventory Analysis - On August 22, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 155975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons to 81698 tons compared with last week, presenting a neutral situation. Also, bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][14]. Disk Analysis - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, showing a bullish trend [2]. Major Position Analysis - The major net positions are long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish sign [2]. Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]. Other Analysis - Processing fees are falling, and the logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3][16].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 78,690 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.64%, with a historical percentile of 22.6% [2] Group 3: Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure): - Strategy 1: Short the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a suggested entry range around 82,000 yuan/ton [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options (CU2511C82000), with a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure): - Strategy: Long the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a suggested entry range around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are still in the process of consolidating the bottom. Macroscopically, the Fed meeting minutes had little impact on copper prices, but Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting pushed down the US dollar index and boosted the valuation of non - ferrous metals, leading to a significant rise in copper prices on Friday night. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the tender TC of many mining enterprises was lower than expected this week, and the export of copper ore from Indonesia met expectations. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rod enterprises increased by 1.2% month - on - month, and the finished - product inventory decreased slightly to 66,100 tons. Terminal demand remained stable, and the willingness to actively replenish inventory was not strong when the price did not clearly fall to 78,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan/ton, with some pressure above. According to the current downstream and terminal situation, prices above 79,000 yuan/ton are prone to negative feedback, and slight macro - positive factors are difficult to keep the price above this level. Copper prices are also difficult to fall significantly to around 78,000 yuan/ton, as approaching this price will stimulate downstream inventory replenishment. Investors need to pay attention to the US core PCE price in July and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies [4] - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals [4] - The lower support level has been raised [4] Bearish Factors - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5] Uncertain Factors - Repeated tariff policies [7] - Global demand decreased due to tariff policies [7] Group 6: Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,690 | 0 | 0% | [6] | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,650 | 140 | 0.18% | [8] | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,610 | 0 | 0% | [8] | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,809 | 74.5 | 0.77% | [8] | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.2 | 0.01 | 0.12% | [8] Group 7: Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,830 | 30 | 0.04% | [13] | Shanghai Wumaotong | yuan/ton | 78,825 | 80 | 0.1% | [13] | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 78,750 | 70 | 0.09% | [13] | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,950 | 80 | 0.1% | [13] | Shanghai Non - ferrous Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 150 | - 10 | - 6.25% | [13] | Shanghai Wumaotong Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 135 | 20 | 17.39% | [13] | Guangdong Nanchu Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 165 | 35 | 26.92% | [13] | Yangtze Non - ferrous Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 160 | 5 | 3.23% | [13] Group 8: Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 1,084.04 | 50 | 4.84% | [15] | Reasonable Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 1,488.5 | 0.5 | 0.03% | [15] | Tax - included Price Advantage | yuan/ton | - 404.46 | 49.5 | - 10.9% | [17] | Current Tax - free Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 5,750 | 50 | 0.88% | [17] | Reasonable Tax - free Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 6,172.19 | 3.47 | 0.06% | [17] | Tax - free Price Advantage | yuan/ton | - 422.19 | 46.53 | - 9.93% | [17] Group 9: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipt | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 24,148 | - 1,009 | - 4.01% | [19] | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 6,125 | 0 | 0% | [19] | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 2,405 | 0 | 0% | [19] | Total Bonded Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | [19] | Total Tax - paid Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 24,148 | - 1,009 | - 4.01% | [19] LME Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 155,975 | - 375 | - 0.24% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 24,550 | - 150 | - 0.61% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 131,425 | - 225 | - 0.17% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | [21] | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 143,450 | - 1,550 | - 1.07% | [21] | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 12,525 | 1,175 | 10.35% | [21] COMEX Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 271,482 | 2,416 | 0.9% | [22] | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 138,871 | 13,745 | 1.19% | [22] | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 132,611 | - 1,842 | - 1.37% | [22] Group 10: Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | 153.53 | - 81.28 | - 34.62% | [23] | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 41.3 | - 3.1 | 8.12% | [23]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [6][44] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai copper futures showed a fluctuating and slightly weakening trend, with prices ranging from around 78,490 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 79,290 yuan/ton [8] - Last week, LME copper futures prices fluctuated, with contract prices ranging from 9,671 - 9,791 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In July, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.38% compared to the previous month. From January to July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 35 had year - on - year growth in added value [16] - Fed Chairman Powell hinted on the 22nd that despite current inflationary risks, the Fed may cut interest rates in the coming months [43] 3. Spot Analysis - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,825 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 79,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The electrolytic copper premium was around 135 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 37.65 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 3.76 cents/pound. In July 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month, but a 14% year - on - year increase [25] - As of July 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.1694 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly automobile output was 2.5102 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [30] 5. Inventory Situation - As of August 22, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,698 tons, a decrease of 4,663 tons from the previous week. As of August 20, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 7.26%. As of August 21, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,160 tons from the previous trading day [34] - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,400 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,400 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 15,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 800 tons from the previous week [34] 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - Similar to the content in the macroeconomic aspect and supply - demand and inventory parts, including industrial added - value growth, Fed's potential interest - rate cut, copper smelting fees, refined copper output, copper product and automobile output, and inventory changes [43] 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories decreased on August 22, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons from the previous week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is neutral [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - With inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, weak consumption in the off - season, and increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The comprehensive analysis of copper's various indicators shows a neutral - to - bullish situation, and short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Spot - Information about spot prices, inventory types, and their changes is presented, but specific numerical data is not fully filled in [6]. 期现价差 - Not elaborated further in the provided content Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons from the previous week, and the LME inventory and other inventory data are also mentioned [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not elaborated further in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, and other data of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22].