Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is Neutral, which has been downgraded [7] Core Insights - The significant drop in copper prices is attributed to the U.S. government's unexpected policy shift regarding tariffs on copper imports, which did not meet market expectations [4][5] - The U.S. is highly dependent on imported refined copper, with 2024 consumption projected at 1.545 million tons and domestic production at 826,000 tons, leading to a compromise in tariff policy to protect domestic manufacturing [5] - Short-term impacts include increased price volatility, a return to average price differentials between COMEX and LME copper, and rising U.S. copper inventories due to trade shifts [5] - Mid-term expectations suggest a return to fundamental pricing logic as the tariff policy stabilizes, with potential for price recovery during the fourth quarter production peak [5] - Long-term supply constraints remain, with challenges in copper mining exploration and development, supporting a bullish outlook for copper prices [9] Summary by Sections - **Tariff Policy Impact**: The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products and high-copper derivatives, leading to a significant market reaction with a 17.88% drop in COMEX copper futures [3][4] - **Market Dynamics**: The initial expectation of comprehensive tariffs led to speculative trading, which was disrupted by the actual policy announcement, resulting in a historical price drop [4] - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The long-term supply bottleneck in copper mining and the increasing importance of copper in electrical and AI industries suggest a sustained upward price trend despite short-term volatility [9]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 31 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜主力震荡微跌 0.06%，盘中中央政治局会议召开，未有明显政策利好，铜价 窄幅变动，盘面近月维持小幅 contango，国内现货涨 260 至 79285，现货升水涨 55 至 165，现货货源紧张。LME0-3 维持 contango51.71，LME 市场继续受到美铜 关税压制，不过沪铜和伦铜日内整体跌幅有限，市场观望情绪较浓。当下宏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium over futures, also neutral. Copper inventories increased on July 29, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Considering factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, June manufacturing PMI is 49.5% (unchanged from last month), manufacturing sentiment is stable, neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 78985, basis is 145, premium over futures, neutral [3]. - Inventory: On July 29, copper inventory increased by 225 to 127625 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons last week, neutral [3]. - Disk: Closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average is moving downward, bearish [3]. - Main positions: Main net positions are long but long positions are decreasing, bullish [3]. - Expectation: Fed rate - cuts slow down, inventories rise, geopolitical disturbances remain, off - season consumption is under pressure, copper prices will fluctuate and adjust [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Domestic policy easing [4]. -利空: Trade war escalation [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [21]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [23].

Summary of China Nonferrous Mining Conference Call Industry Overview - The copper market is currently under pressure due to weakened trading sentiment and a strong US dollar index, but the medium to long-term supply-demand structure remains tight. Global major copper producers saw a nearly 1% year-on-year decline in production in Q1, influenced by supply disruptions from Zijin's Kamoto mine and Teck Resources' tailings issues, maintaining a tight supply outlook [2][3][4]. Company Insights Core Competitiveness - China Nonferrous Mining's core competitiveness lies in its endogenous growth, with plans to double its copper production capacity over the next five years, adding over 150,000 tons of copper capacity through the resumption of existing mines and new projects. By 2035, the company's asset copper capacity is expected to exceed 300,000 tons [2][5][10]. Production and Capacity - The company plans to achieve a total copper production of 286,000 tons of crude and anode copper, 126,000 tons of cathode copper, and 111,100 tons of processed products in 2024, totaling over 500,000 tons of copper products. The self-supply rate from its own mines has remained stable at around 30% since 2021 [4][11]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady growth in revenue and net profit, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% in revenue from 2015 to 2024, projecting 2024 revenue at $3.82 billion, a 5.5% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.08 billion yuan in 2024, a 23.9% increase, marking a new high in recent years [2][7]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at $780 million, a 31.6% increase, with a stable dividend payout ratio above 40%. The total dividend for 2024 is expected to be $167 million, with a payout ratio of 42% [2][9]. Strategic Developments Future Growth Plans - The company has outlined several key projects contributing to its future growth, including: 1. The new Luansha copper project, expected to produce 40,000 tons by 2027. 2. The resumption of the West mine, projected to add 20,000 tons by 2027. 3. The lead-bismuth Samba copper mining project, expected to contribute 20,000 tons by around 2028. 4. The Gongangbof Men Sesa project, anticipated to add 25,000 tons by 2028. 5. The second phase of the lead-bismuth Southeast mine, expected to contribute 45,000 tons by 2030 [10]. Smelting Business - The company has a significant advantage in its smelting operations, particularly in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with total smelting capacity exceeding 500,000 tons. Increased production from its own copper mines is expected to enhance profitability [2][6]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates stable smelting capabilities and increased self-supply rates as its own mines ramp up production. The average copper prices are projected to be $9,500, $10,000, and $10,500 per ton for the years 2025-2027, respectively. The sulfuric acid business is expected to maintain sales around 780,000 tons, with prices adjusting to $200 and $190 per ton [2][14]. Historical Context - Established in 1983, China Nonferrous Mining has evolved into a leading integrated producer with a strong international presence, particularly in regions along the Belt and Road Initiative. The company has a robust management team with extensive operational experience, ensuring efficiency in its operations in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with stable manufacturing sentiment, a neutral basis, and mixed signals from inventory, price trends, and主力持仓. The copper price is expected to undergo a volatile adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79100, with a basis of 100, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 28, copper inventory decreased by 1075 to 127400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [3]. - **Price Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [3]. - **主力持仓**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - **Expectation**: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will experience a volatile adjustment [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: No specific information provided - **利空**: No specific information provided - **Logic**: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [23]. Other Information - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations while awaiting the Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 25, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,250 CNY/ton, up 1.07% from July 18, while LME copper closed at 9,796 USD/ton, up 0.02% [3] - Domestic copper prices are rising in line with the "anti-involution" sentiment in domestic commodities, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The cable operating rate is lower than the same period last year, and domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline in Q3, indicating weak demand [3] - However, supply from mines and scrap copper remains tight, and with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, copper prices are expected to rise [3] Group 3: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 20% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory increased by 5% [4] - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 561,000 tons, down 23.2% from the previous week [4] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 449,000 tons as of July 21, 2025, up 5.7% [4] Group 4: Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 125 CNY/ton this week [5] - In March 2025, China's refined copper production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5] Group 5: Smelting and Exports - In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6] - The import volume of electrolytic copper in June increased by 18.7% month-on-month, while the export volume surged by 134.2% [7] Group 6: Demand Analysis - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate at 70.83%, down 2.07 percentage points from the previous week [8] - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in June, lower than the previously expected 11.5% [8] Group 7: Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 31.4% week-on-week, reaching 181,000 lots [9] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 2.2% week-on-week, totaling 40,000 lots [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for Zijin Mining to HKD 26 and reiterated a buy rating, despite a forecasted increase in copper and gold costs for the year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zijin Mining's management predicts copper production for the year will be between 10,700 to 10,800 tons, consistent with last year's levels [1] - The company remains optimistic about the long-term potential of the Kamoa-Kakula project [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper, copper prices initially fell but have since continued to rise [1] - The average copper price year-to-date is USD 9,469 per ton, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [1] - The forecasted copper price for this year is USD 9,557 per ton, also a 4% year-on-year increase, with an expected price of USD 9,634 per ton in the second half, a 2% increase from the first half [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Bank of America Securities has adjusted Zijin Mining's net profit forecast down by 2% for this year, but has increased the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 1% and 5%, respectively [1] - The target price for Zijin Mining has been raised from HKD 23 to HKD 26 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate declined, and the tight supply situation in the spot market has eased. The downstream mainly made rigid purchases, and the trading volume was average. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate increased slightly, the processing fee of blister copper remained flat month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials was marginally stable. Teck Resources cut its copper production target for this year to 47 - 52.5 tons, with the average value 2 - 3 tons lower than the previous target [12]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 0.2 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton [12]. - The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper expanded slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [12]. - The basis of the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated weakly, the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, and the global visible inventory increased. The valuation of copper was neutral to bearish. In terms of drivers, the increase in copper concentrate processing fees had a neutral impact on copper prices, while the weakening of the US dollar index and the recovery of the global manufacturing PMI were bullish drivers. There were several major macro - events this week, including the Politburo meeting in China, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will put pressure on SHFE copper and LME copper. Industrially, the tight supply of copper raw materials remains, but due to the seasonal weakness in downstream demand and the expected increase in imports, the upward movement of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises declined, and the tight supply in the spot market eased. The downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate increased slightly, the processing fee of blister copper remained flat month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials was marginally stable. Teck Resources cut its copper production target for this year [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 0.2 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper expanded slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [12]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis of the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated weakly, the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, and the global visible inventory increased. The valuation of copper was neutral to bearish. The increase in copper concentrate processing fees had a neutral impact on copper prices, while the weakening of the US dollar index and the recovery of the global manufacturing PMI were bullish drivers. There were several major macro - events this week, and if the US copper tariffs are strictly enforced, they will put pressure on SHFE copper and LME copper. The upward movement of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of SHFE copper rose 1.07% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper rose 0.02% to 9796 dollars/ton [24]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper showed certain changes. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous price of electrolytic copper was 79,580 yuan on July 25, 2025 [26]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price rose first and then fell, and the basis quotation declined with the increase in supply. The spot in East China was at a premium of 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday. The LME inventory continued to increase, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton on Friday. The domestic electrolytic copper spot import had a small loss last week, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) increased [29]. - **Structure**: The contango structure of SHFE copper's near - month contracts expanded slightly, and the contango structure of LME copper contracted slightly [32]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) of imported copper concentrate increased slightly to - 42.6 dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import and Export Ratio**: No specific content provided. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import loss of copper expanded slightly [42]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 42.7 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area was 7.1 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons month - on - month. The decrease in SHFE inventory came from Jiangsu and Guangdong, and the inventory in Shanghai increased slightly. The number of copper warrants decreased by 22106 to 16133 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased [45][48][51]. 4. Supply Side - **Monthly Output of Electrolytic Copper**: According to SMM's survey data, China's refined copper output declined slightly in June 2025, and it is expected to increase again in July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic refined copper output in June 2025 was 130.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 736.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [56]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In June 2025, China's copper ore imports were 235 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 1475.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products were 46.4 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 263.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The imports of anode copper in June were 6.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 38.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The refined copper imports in June were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. The exports of refined copper in June were 7.9 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons month - on - month. The imports of recycled copper in June were 18.3 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 114.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [59][62][65][71][74]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in June, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI returning above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies improved steadily [81]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: In June, the year - on - year output growth was seen in industries such as automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, refrigerators, AC motors, and power generation equipment. The output of power generation equipment continued to grow at a high rate, while the output of color TVs decreased year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year output growth was seen in power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors, while the cumulative output of color TVs and freezers decreased [84]. - **Real Estate Data**: The domestic real estate data remained weak from January to June. New construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreased year - on - year. The decline in sales and construction areas widened, while the decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in June [87]. - **Downstream Enterprises' Operating Rate**: The operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises declined in June and is expected to continue to decline in July. The operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises rebounded in June and is expected to decline in July. The operating rates of other downstream enterprises such as enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, and brass rod enterprises also showed different trends of decline or increase in June and corresponding expectations for July [90][93][96][99]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper increased by 22396 to 1021138 lots (bilateral), and the position of the near - month 2508 contract was 179194 lots (bilateral) [106]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of July 22, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 13.5%. The increase in short - positions was slightly greater than that in long - positions. The proportion of long - positions of LME investment funds declined (as of July 18) [109].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that although the domestic anti - involution measures have little impact on copper, the market sentiment is still bullish. The hydropower project brings an optimistic outlook for downstream demand, and the US dollar has weakened in the past two days, so the copper market is bullish. As the tariff implementation date approaches, attention should be paid to the tariff situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 18, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of non - ferrous metal stability and growth plan. On July 19, the hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan and a construction period of about 20 years [1]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.16 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents/pound. The smelting and refining fees of smelters have stabilized and rebounded this week. A smelter has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, with limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37% [1]. - In the international market, the copper transportation and export channels in Peru have resumed. As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. The downstream is in a relative off - season, with weak trading sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, showing a strong intraday trend, closing at 79,740. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 5,691 to 115,331 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,043 to 113,776 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 10 yuan/ton. On July 21, 2025, the LME official price was 9,843 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69.5 dollars/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period. As of July 21, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,100 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,100 tons, a slight decrease of 100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 243,400 short tons, an increase of 1,023 short tons from the previous period [8].

期货热点追踪 铜价小幅上涨，但机构表示未来上涨空间预计有限，原因为何？ 相关链接 ...