沪铜早间小幅低开，午后行情有所回暖，收盘上涨0.46%。最近美指低位运行，铜矿端持续紧张，铜价 下方支撑较强，下游需求虽然受抑制，但国内铜出口增加，社会库存累积有限。 隔夜公布的美国11月CPI低于预期，美国通胀有降温迹象，美国最新一周初请失业金人数略低于预期， 叠加部分美联储官员态度鸽派，一定程度提振美联储1月降息预期，外围氛围尚可。 对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，美国通胀数据走弱强化明年降息基准预期，温和的通胀数据将宽松叙事 朝着有利于鸽派的方向发展，欧央行暂停降息后上调经济增长预期，预计将在更长的周期内保持利率不 变；基本面来看，全球中断矿山复产缓慢，LME注册仓单量较低，国内社会库存低位运行，关注年底 长协TC谈判结果，预计铜价短期将维持高位震荡。 （文华综合） 由于铜价高企，下游需求受抑，此前国内精铜社会库存有所回升，截至本周四，库存累积出现放缓，主 因江苏和广东入库变少。 ...

对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，虽然CSPT小组达成降低矿铜产能负荷等共识，但目前冶炼利润尚有硫 酸支撑，且临近年底冶炼或仍回升。进出口方面，因出口打开，国内可能继续有出口安排。消费端，近 期下游消费表现仍走弱，开工保持在季节性低位。国内平衡无过剩压力的主要驱动或来源于出口。海外 方面，LME注销仓单大幅提升，紧张预期提前反映。展望后市，宏观边际上驱动放缓，基本面非美紧 张预期持续存在，短期宏微观驱动分化，价格或回归宽幅震荡。 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情回暖，收盘上涨0.4%。喜忧参半的美国非农数据一定程度提振美联储降 息预期，市场氛围偏暖，高铜价对需求的压制仍然存在，但矿端支撑同样较强。 隔夜公布的美国11月非农数据喜忧参半，虽然新增就业人口超过预期，但是失业率攀升至4.6%，为逾 四年高位，考虑到失业率的攀升可能受美国政府停摆影响，对于美国劳动力市场表现后续仍需跟踪。 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费低位运行，铜精矿市场活跃度一般，更多聚焦于长单谈判，矿紧仍将持续对 铜价形成支撑。上周五沪铜再创新高，最近期价也一直高位震荡，精废价差仍然高企，精铜消费受抑 制，12月初以来国内精铜社会库存持续回升，截至周初升至17万吨 ...

年报 2025 年 12 月 摘要： 展望 2026 中国经济，投资方面，政府财政规模严格受限，货币宽松有度， 投资总额可能延续 25 年温和增长的态势；外贸方面，国际形势更加复杂，2026 年可能小幅增长；消费可能成为未来中国最重要的经济支撑和政策抓手。 中美贸易协议持续至 2026 年 11 月，因此美国关税政策可能不会出现更多 变化。美联储现任主席鲍威尔任期持续至 5 月 15 日，新任主席为哈塞特或沃 尔什，预计两者都会顺应特朗普大幅宽松和持续降息的想法，2026 年下半年 可能再次迎来降息周期。 现货方面重点关注美国铜库存情况。目前美铜库存已经累积至 55 万吨左 右，足够扭转全球铜现货供需格局，所以导致全球铜现货供应紧张，成为 12 月铜价大涨的主导因素之一。 研究员： 张天骜 南京大学理学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学 硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 电话：025-52278450 邮箱： zhangtianao@ftol.com.cn 年报 2025-12 总体而言，2026 铜价首要决定性因素仍是中美货币政策和财政政策；次 要影响因素是全球经济数据和就业 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货91835，基差-95，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：12月16日铜库存增725至166600吨，上期所铜库存较上周增484吨至89389吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 高位运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 ...

财达期货｜铜周报 铜价涨势明显 短期警惕回调 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约整体呈冲高回落趋势，周中维持高位震荡， 受宏观面影响美元指数周尾持续下行，因此周五日盘铜价又再度创 94570 的 历史新高，周五可能受美股科技股下跌影响市场情绪转弱，叠加铜价历史高 位资金获利了结，周五夜盘铜价出现高位回落，跌幅 2.13%，收盘价在 91550 元/吨。较前一周-1.3%。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： F3084967 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 供需方面，海外铜矿供应链脆弱性仍较高，且中国有色金属工业协会指 出，2025 年再生铜产量 80 万吨，占比 25%，部分缓解原生铜压力但难以扭 转紧缺预期。国内产量，据我的钢铁，12 月国内电解铜预计产量 116.46 万 吨，环比小幅增加 2.11%。终端方面房地产股票周三有所反弹，主要是由于 市场关于中国政府计划提供 4000 亿元人民币抵押贷款补贴的传闻，市场多认 为这类政策方向确实是有可能的，并可能对地产销售端有温和提振，但不足 以从本质扭转当前房地产的颓势。因此预计地产数据预计维持一段时期的底 部震荡走势。库存方面，全球库存累库趋势维 ...

研究报告 铜周报 沪铜或以震荡偏强趋势运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | | 电话：0931-8582647 | | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | | 年 报告日期：2025 | 12 | 月 | 15 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 11 月份，全国居民消费价格 同比上涨 0.7%。其中，城市上涨 0.7%，农村上涨 0.4%；食品价 格上涨 0.2%，非食品价格上涨 0.8%；消费品价格上涨 0.6%，服 务价格上涨 0.7%。1—11 月平均，全国居民消费价格与上年同期 持平。11 月份，全国居民消费价格环比下降 0.1%。其中，城市下 降 0.1%，农村持平；食品价 ...

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：宏观情绪改善，看好铜价继续上行 截至2025年12月12日，SHFE铜收盘价94080 元/吨，环比12月5日+1.40%；LME铜收盘价11553 美元/吨， 环比12月5日-0.96%。（1）宏观：美联储12月如期降息；国内中央经济工作会议强调明年政策"坚持稳中 求进、提质增效"，提出优化"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策，整体利好铜消费。（2） 供需：线缆企业开工率在铜价大涨后本周略有回落，但Q4电网旺季效应仍存；2025Q4空调排产同比下 降，但环比改善；供需仍将维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+2.6%，LME铜库存环比+0.8% 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： （1）港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年12月 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 美国 COMEX 交易所电解铜库存续创历史新高 ——铜行业周报（20251208-20251212） 要点 本周小结：宏观情绪改善，看好铜价继续上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 94080 元/吨，环比 12 月 5 日+1.40%；LME 铜收盘价 11553 美元/ 吨，环比 12 月 5 日-0.96%。（1）宏观：美联储 12 月如期降息；国内中央经济 工作会议强调明年政策"坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，提出优化"两新"（大规 模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策，整体利好铜消费。（2）供需：线缆企业 开工率在铜价大涨后本周略有回落，但 Q4 电网旺季效应仍存；2025Q4 空调排 产同比下降，但环比改善；供需仍将维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+2.6%，LME 铜库存环比+0.8%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 76.4 万吨，环比上周+1.8%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 12 月 8 日，全球三大交易所库存合计 69.0 万吨，环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bullish sentiment for copper has cooled, but the support remains strong. Although the copper valuation is relatively neutral, considering the Fed's interest - rate cut and the positive policy tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference, the overall sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the pressure of refined copper surplus is not significant. It is expected that the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and the prices may gradually turn into a volatile trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 90,000 - 94,500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is expected to be 11,200 - 12,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has declined, while the processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month. The supply of scrap materials is relatively loose. As of the end of November, the Kuth Copper refinery under India's Adani Group is facing a serious raw material shortage crisis, with the actual arrival of copper concentrate less than 10% of the demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE has slightly increased by 500 tons to 89,000 tons, the inventory of LME has increased by 1,000 tons to 166,000 tons, and the inventory of COMEX has increased by 10,000 tons to 405,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The spot in Shanghai, China on Friday was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper has slightly widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 4.907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.67% [11]. - **Demand**: Due to the high copper prices, the spot market trading has been sluggish. The refined copper rod enterprises have strictly controlled the production rhythm, and the operating rate has declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has first narrowed and then widened, the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased, and the operating rate of downstream scrap copper rod enterprises has rebounded from a low level [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have risen and then fallen. The SHFE copper main contract has increased by 1.40% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has decreased by 2.37% to 11,552.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper prices have strengthened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has risen, and the Cash/3M has remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import of domestic electrolytic copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable [25]. - **Structure**: The Back structure of SHFE copper has shrunk, while the LME copper has maintained the Back structure [28] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrate has declined to - 43.08 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has continued to rise, which still has a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - **Imports and Exports Ratio**: The spot import loss of copper has slightly widened [38]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 661,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in SHFE inventory comes from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai has decreased. The number of copper warrants has increased by 1,102 to 32,563 tons. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses and a decrease in European inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has risen [41][44][47] 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In November 2025, China's refined copper production has increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to increase significantly in December. In October 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.70% [51]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, and the net imports were 257,000 tons. The proportion of imports from Russia, Chile, Australia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Morocco has increased, while the proportion of imports from Myanmar, Japan, etc. has decreased. In October, China's exports of refined copper were 66,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month - on - month. The import of recycled copper in October was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [54][57][63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power sector (46%), followed by household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), etc. In China, the consumption is mainly in equipment (32%) and construction (26%) [72] - **Downstream Industry Output**: In October, the output of freezers among copper downstream industries has increased year - on - year, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, automobiles, color TVs, AC motors, and power generation equipment has decreased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output of automobiles, color TVs, and AC motors has increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of freezers, power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators has decreased [78] - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to slightly decline in December; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in December. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to slightly improve in December; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased better than expected, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to continue to rise in December; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises has increased, and it is expected to slightly strengthen in December. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to increase in December; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises has declined, while the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has rebounded [83][86][89][92][95] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap price difference has narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference was reported at 4,797 yuan/ton on Friday [102] 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper has decreased by 13,496 to 1,293,826 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2512 contract is 10,820 lots (bilateral) [107] - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of November 10, the CFTC fund position has maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.6%. The proportion of net long positions of LME investment funds has slightly increased (as of December 5) [110]

研究所 铜价强势难挡 谨防短期冲高回落风险 ——国信期货有色（铜）周报 2025年12月12日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 盘面行情回顾：沪铜震荡偏强 研究所 12月8日-12月12日，沪铜震荡偏强，收于94080元/吨，较12月12日上涨1.4%。LME铜震荡偏强，截至12月12日下午收盘，报 11898美元/吨。 数据来源：博易云、国信期货 沪铜主力合约日K线图 LME铜日K线图 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 研究所 P 第 a 二 r 部 t 分 2 基本面分析 现货市场 研究所 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 6 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 铜精矿供应 研究所 期货市场 研究所 数据来源：SMM、国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 铜精矿及粗铜加工费 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 9 ...