Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term, with short - term support from the ore end and concerns about the long - term market easing, and ample supply expectations from the smelting end [1] - Stainless steel prices may oscillate within a range, with negative feedback pressure transmitted to the supply side, resulting in a weakening of both supply and demand at the margin [2] Summary by Related Contents Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Ore end: High - grade nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, supporting the cost of the integrated pyrometallurgical process. The premium of 1.6% nickel ore has increased to $27 per wet ton, with the total price rising by 26% year - on - year to $54.3 per wet ton. However, the upward speed of the Indonesian ore end is expected to slow down, and the third quarter may be a key stage for quota release and premium adjustment. The market still anticipates quota release [1] - Smelting end: Due to the negative feedback of stainless steel production cuts on ferronickel, ferronickel has returned to inventory accumulation. The ferronickel inventory in mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month. The supply of intermediate products has increased marginally, which may drag down the valuation of refined nickel [1] - Inventory: LME nickel inventory has increased this week, and refined nickel still has the possibility of returning to inventory accumulation in the long term [1] Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts. The stainless steel production plan for May is 3.425 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 5%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic stainless steel imports is expected to decline to nearly - 29% in June, and the supply growth rate may be adjusted down to about 3.3% [2] - Demand: From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of stainless steel apparent demand plus exports was + 3.0% [2] - Inventory: Stainless steel social inventory has increased by 0.85% week - on - week, with cold - rolled stainless steel inventory decreasing by 5.39% and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increasing by 10.59%. The inventory accumulation is mainly in the 400 series, while the 300 series inventory has decreased by 3.42% [6] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory has decreased by 840 tons to 42,088 tons. LME nickel inventory has increased by 3,414 tons to 198,636 tons [3] - Ferronickel: The ferronickel inventory at the end of mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month [4] - Stainless steel: Stainless steel social inventory is 1,117,668 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85% [6] - Nickel ore: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports has increased by 252,700 wet tons to 7.3151 million wet tons, mainly from the Philippines [6] Market News - Policy adjustment: Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte [7] - Production news: The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF has successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and its capacity has recovered to 70% - 80%. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue its shutdown for maintenance in June and July, which is expected to affect the production volume of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly for the 300 series [7][8] - Export ban news: The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there are also rumors about a nickel ore export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [8]