Summary of Nickel Market Analysis and Outlook Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the nickel industry, particularly the developments in Indonesia's nickel production and regulatory environment [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Indonesia plans to limit nickel production to 150 million tons by 2030, a reduction of approximately 34% compared to 2025, indicating a strong commitment to controlling nickel supply, which may lead to price increases [1] - The Indonesian government is tightening regulations on Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), changing the RKA B approval process from every three years to annually, which increases operational costs for companies and supports nickel prices [1][3] - A planned acquisition of Delong Nickel Industry for 20 billion RMB aims to enhance upstream mining regulation and improve the value of the downstream industry chain, consolidating resources to boost fiscal revenue [1][3] - The establishment of the Dandanpala platform focuses on resource integration in mining processing, energy security, renewable resources, and deep processing of agricultural and fishery products, aimed at enhancing national fiscal capacity [1][4][5] - High-grade nickel ore consumption is accelerating, with average grades expected to decline from 1.66% in 2024 to 1.57% in 2025, a drop of about 7%, putting pressure on small mining companies and prompting the government to advocate for sustainable development [1][6] Future Market Outlook - The nickel market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2026 due to tightening supply and stricter policies, with the interaction between companies and the Indonesian government being crucial [1][7] - There is a potential for substantial price increases in the future, making nickel a key focus for investors [7] Investment Opportunities - Several domestic companies are actively investing in nickel-related fields, and investors are encouraged to engage with relevant teams for more detailed information to seize investment opportunities [1][8][9]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with nickel futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a peak of 123,490.00 CNY/ton, marking a 3.64% increase [1] - The outlook for nickel prices is positive, driven by expectations of cost increases and a recovery from previous lows, although there are concerns about potential quota reductions impacting the market [2] - Nickel ore prices are stabilizing due to regulatory actions against illegal mining in Indonesia and seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines, which may affect production [3] Group 2 - The reduction in nickel ore approvals in Indonesia is expected to limit the release of primary nickel production by 2026, while taxation on semi-finished cobalt will increase production costs [2] - Despite the positive sentiment in the market, there are concerns regarding the overall demand, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which is facing pressure from downstream nickel-iron producers [3] - The current market is characterized by an oversupply of primary nickel, with inventory levels remaining relatively high, indicating a cautious outlook for future consumption [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel price support is enhanced, but the upward space depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The previous trading logic of the nickel futures was the pressure of oversupply and the expected commissioning of hydrometallurgical projects. The Indonesian news has weakened the confidence of short - sellers, and short - covering has led to a recovery in nickel prices. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, with a slowdown in the inventory accumulation rate. However, the expected increase in the supply of low - cost hydrometallurgical paths in the long - term still exists, which restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - The fundamental contradiction of stainless steel is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of Indonesian policy news. Indonesian quota and resource tax policies increase the uncertainty of ferronickel costs. If the quota policy is implemented, it is expected to turn the contradiction of nickel element oversupply into a shortage. The implementation of the resource tax still depends on the pricing model of associated resources in Indonesia, and it will moderately increase the cost. The fundamentals of stainless steel show a slight oversupply, with a good bottom safety margin, but the upward driving force depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 News Analysis - The Indonesian government has urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget, and the market rumor is that Indonesia hopes to cut the nickel ore quota to 2.5 billion tons. According to calculations, the nickel ore demand in Indonesia from 2024 - 2026 is expected to be 250 million, 280 million, and 300 million tons respectively. A 2.5 - billion - ton quota may lead to a shortage of nickel ore, force smelters to cut production, and turn the expected surplus of primary nickel into a shortage, which will also have a great impact on the existing high inventory. However, the actual implementation remains to be seen [1]. - The Indonesian government may include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore into the tax system. The adjustment of the resource tax on high - grade nickel ore in the first half of the year theoretically increased the smelting cost by about 700 yuan/metal ton. The impact of including cobalt in the tax system on cost depends on the base - price formula for cobalt determined by Indonesia. The cost increase should not be over - estimated. However, it may have a negative impact on pyrometallurgical enterprises and bring uncertainty to the pricing model of low - grade hydrometallurgical ore [2]. 3.2 Market Quotes - Nickel: The short - term support for nickel prices has increased, but the upward space depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, with a slowdown in the inventory accumulation rate. The expected increase in the supply of low - cost hydrometallurgical paths in the long - term restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - Stainless steel: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent. Indonesian policies increase the uncertainty of ferronickel costs. The current supply and demand pattern shows a slight oversupply, with a good bottom safety margin, and the upward driving force depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory increased by 281 tons to 56,988 tons. Among them, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 2,352 tons to 37,602 tons, spot inventory decreased by 2,071 tons to 15,416 tons, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,970 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,518 tons to 254,550 tons [5]. - New energy: On December 19, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by +1, - 1, and 0 month - on - month to 5, 8, and 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory on December 19 changed by +0.8 month - on - month to 13.1 days; the ternary material inventory on December 18 remained unchanged at 6.9 days [5]. - Ferronickel - stainless steel: On November 30, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The SMM stainless steel factory inventory in November was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 6%/1%. On December 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,042,148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless steel inventory was 610,282 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%, and the hot - rolled stainless steel inventory was 431,866 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73% [5]. 3.4 Market News - On September 12, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over a nickel mining area of over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel. The area accounts for 0.3% of the total mining area, and the expected impact on nickel ore production is about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit a claim plan and provide a claim guarantee until 2025 [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding the procedures for the preparation, submission, and approval of the work plan and budget for mineral and coal mining business activities and the procedures for activity implementation reports [7]. - On October 10, US President Trump announced on social media that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [8]. - According to SMM news, the safety production inspection in Indonesian industrial parks has affected the short - term production of some nickel hydrometallurgical projects, with an expected impact on production of about 6,000 nickel metal tons in December [10]. - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran prompted investors to raise the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [10]. - On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs decided to implement an export license management system for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [10]. - Market rumors suggest that the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel price support has strengthened, but the upward space still depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The previous trading logic was about excess pressure and wet - process production expectations. Indonesian news has weakened short - sellers' confidence, and there may be a catch - up increase in nickel prices. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from supply - strong and demand - weak to supply - demand weakness, and the excess pressure has been structurally transferred. However, the expectation of increased supply from the low - cost wet - process path in the long - term still exists, limiting the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - The fundamental contradictions of stainless steel are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbances of Indonesian policy news. Indonesian policies increase the uncertainty of nickel - iron costs. If the quota policy is implemented, the excess contradiction of nickel elements may be turned into a shortage. The resource tax implementation depends on the pricing model of associated resources. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and low supply growth, showing a slight excess. The cost of nickel - iron has slightly increased, and the bottom - line safety margin of stainless steel is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs News Review - The Indonesian government urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget, and market news said that Indonesia hopes to cut the nickel ore quota to 2.5 billion tons. This may cause a shortage of ore, reverse the excess expectation of primary nickel to a shortage, but the actual implementation remains to be seen [1]. - Indonesia may include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore into the tax system. The previous adjustment of the resource tax on high - grade nickel ore increased the theoretical smelting cost by about 700 yuan/metal ton, but the cost increase may not be fully passed on. The impact of taxing cobalt on cost depends on the base - price formula, and the impact on cost should not be overestimated, but there are uncertainties for pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical enterprises [2]. Market Outlook - Nickel: Short - term price support is enhanced, but the upward space depends on policy implementation. The fundamentals have changed to supply - demand weakness, and attention should be paid to the possibility of hidden restocking at low prices. The expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term restricts the upward elasticity [3]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals show a slight excess, and the cost has slightly increased. The bottom - line safety margin is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [4]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory increased by 281 tons to 56,988 tons, with an increase of 2,352 tons in warehouse receipt inventory, a decrease of 2,071 tons in spot inventory, and no change in bonded - area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,518 tons to 254,550 tons [5]. - New energy: On December 19, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, 0 month - on - month to 5, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed by +0.8 month - on - month to 13.1 days; the ternary material inventory remained flat at 6.9 days on December 18 [5]. - Nickel - iron - stainless steel: On November 30, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In November, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 6%/1%. On December 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,042,148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.5% week - on - week, and that of hot - rolled stainless steel decreased by 2.73% week - on - week [5]. Market News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - ore output by about 600 metal tons [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the sanctions will be cancelled if the companies submit claim plans and guarantees [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year, and there are transitional provisions [8]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [9]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel - wet - process projects will reduce production in December, affecting the output by about 6,000 nickel - metal tons [11]. - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased investors' probability of expecting a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [11]. - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [11]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel - ore commodities in early 2026, and may treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [11]. - Market news said that the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [11]. Key Data Tracking - The table shows the weekly key data tracking of nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, spot prices, spreads, import profits, etc. For example, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 117,180, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,720 [13].

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 镍观点： 18 日沪镍延续反弹，主力 2601 震荡走高，尾盘收涨 1.07%报 113940 元/吨。 8-12%环比上日继续下跌 1 至 885.5 元/镍点，电池级硫酸镍均价较上日持平报 27430 元/吨，产业链价格小幅走弱。最新消息显示，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）表 示，政府在 2026 年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提出的镍矿石产量目标约为 2.5 ...

行业方面，华联期货指出，今年的RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，印尼MHP产能释放 压制价格，但印尼国内矿业政策改变扰动仍在；10月国内镍进口保持高位，10月印尼镍铁供应维持高 位；10月电解镍产量维持高位，11月份小幅回落。 需求方面，中财期货分析称，不锈钢疲软转为负反馈，三元材料12月排产小幅增加，四季度新能源汽车 补贴退坡冲量临近尾声，不锈钢维持刚需采购心态。 12月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，沪镍期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约震荡下 跌2.62%，报111990.00元/吨。 宏观面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，美联储理事米兰再次呼吁加快降息，断言"潜在"通胀接近目标， 称任期或延长。美联储"三把手"：上周降息后，货币政策已为明年做好准备。今年票委柯林斯：上周支 持降息是艰难决定。 对于后市走势，中辉期货表示，海外印尼减产影响逐步减弱，国内外镍库存仍处于偏高水平，下游不锈 钢消费转入淡季，终端需求支撑不足，镍价短期延续偏弱走势。 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. In November, the output of pure nickel dropped sharply by 28.13% month-on-month, and the decline in the previous market fully affected the supply side. Although the nickel price valuation has recovered, it has not regained the previous losses, and the medium - and long - term logic is still constrained by fundamental factors. In the fourth quarter, the rigid cost of the ore end and the uncertainty of the RKAB approval process in Indonesia form double support, limiting the further decline of nickel prices, but the real - world contradictions in downstream demand remain unresolved, and the upward driving force is still weak [3][4]. Summary by Directory Nickel Market Overview - The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2601) opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,080 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 2.66% [10]. - As of December 2, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 119,900 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 1.14% increase [16]. Nickel - related Product Prices - As of December 1, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content remained unchanged at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [35]. - As of November 28, the ex - works prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% remained unchanged at 23 and 52.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [35]. - As of November 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/nickel point to 883 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.90% decrease [29]. - As of December 2, the battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 350 yuan/ton to 27,730 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the electroplating - grade nickel sulfate price remained unchanged at 31,250 yuan/ton [29]. Supply and Demand of Nickel and Related Products Nickel Ore - As of November 28, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 9.51 million wet tons week - on - week, a 0.31% decrease [38]. - In October 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a 23.41% decrease month - on - month and a 10.97% increase year - on - year. The import volume from the Philippines was 4.3468 million tons, a 25.28% decrease month - on - month [38]. Intermediate Products - As of December 1, the MHP FOB price increased by 148 US dollars/ton to 12,979 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 1.15% increase; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price increased by 151 US dollars/ton to 13,259 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a 1.15% increase [44]. - In November 2025, the Indonesian MHP output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 3.86 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 5.85% decrease; the high - grade nickel matte output increased by 0.7 million tons to 2.92 million tons month - on - month, a 31.53% increase [44]. Refined Nickel - In November 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output decreased by 10,100 tons to 25,800 tons month - on - month, a 28.13% decrease and a 16.28% decrease year - on - year [52]. - In October 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 13,700 tons, a 3.15% decrease month - on - month and a 0.76% decrease year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 9,700 tons, a 65.66% decrease month - on - month and a 5.67% decrease year - on - year [52]. - As of December 1, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 17,000 tons to 32,700 tons week - on - week, a 5.13% decrease; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 408 tons to 253,100 tons week - on - week, a 0.16% decrease [53]. Nickel Sulfate - In November 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output increased by 438 tons to 36,700 nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.21% increase [66]. - In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly import volume was 22,100 tons, a 25.32% decrease month - on - month and a 114.15% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 1,058.24 tons, a 31.23% increase month - on - month and a 53.20% decrease year - on - year [66]. Nickel Iron - In November 2025, the national nickel pig iron output (in metal) decreased by 900 tons to 27,200 tons month - on - month, a 3.23% decrease [83]. - In November 2025, the Indonesian nickel pig iron output decreased by 300 tons to 148,800 nickel tons month - on - month, basically unchanged [83]. - As of October 2025, China's nickel iron monthly import volume was 905,100 tons (equivalent to 111,300 tons in metal), a 18.40% decrease month - on - month and a 30.31% increase year - on - year [83]. Stainless Steel - In November 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 54,600 tons to 3.4592 million tons month - on - month, a 1.55% decrease and a 4.24% increase year - on - year [95]. - It is expected that the crude steel production in December will be 3.2857 million tons, a 5.02% decrease month - on - month and a 4.55% decrease year - on - year [95]. - As of November 28, the stainless steel social inventory increased by 14,400 tons to 1.0861 million tons week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [98]. - As of December 2, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 21 yuan/ton to 12,488 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.17% increase [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the prominent pressure on the nickel fundamentals, the nickel price broke through the platform and bottomed at around 115,000 yuan/ton. With the stabilization of the ferronickel price and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, the nickel price shifted to a volatile pattern. The report tends to believe that the short - term price has bottomed, but it is necessary to focus on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. [11] - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, or go long at low prices after the ferronickel price stabilizes and rebounds. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3 - month nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In November, the nickel ore price remained stable overall. For pyrometallurgical ore, although the smelter's cost - price inversion intensified and the demand for ore weakened significantly, the bargaining power of ore merchants was strong, and the prices of pyrometallurgical ore in Indonesia and the Philippines did not decline significantly. For hydrometallurgical ore, the market was still relatively dull, and the price mainly remained stable. [11] - **Ferronickel**: In November, the terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect led to a continuous decline in the ferronickel price. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, the stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, the industry inventory was high, and many stainless - steel enterprises had production - cut plans at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. The ferronickel production profit is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel, so it is expected that the ferronickel price will gradually stabilize in the future. [11] - **Intermediate products**: In November, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. On the supply side, the sulfur price remained strong, and the sellers were more willing to hold prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a relatively cold overall market transaction. [11] - **Refined nickel**: In November, the nickel price was weak, hitting a new low and then rebounding slightly. As of December 4, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline from the same period last month, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,885 US dollars/ton, a 1.16% decline from the same period last month. In the spot market, the spot price of refined nickel was stronger than the futures price, and the premium was generally strong. [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trend**: In November, the nickel price was weak, hitting a new low and then rebounding slightly. As of December 4, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline from the same period last month, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,885 US dollars/ton, a 1.16% decline from the same period last month. [17] - **Nickel spot premium**: The spot premium was stable and slightly strong. As of December 4, the average spot price of Russian nickel had a premium of 400 yuan/ton over the near - month contract, the same as last month, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 5,000 yuan/ton, with the average price up 2,100 yuan/ton from the same period last month. [21] - **Secondary nickel price**: The decline of the ferronickel price slowed down. As of December 5, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 884 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 2 yuan/nickel point from the previous week. The nickel sulfate price declined slightly. As of December 5, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,460 - 27,600 yuan/ton, with the average price down 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. [24] 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable. On December 5, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 51.43 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.59 US dollars/wet ton from the previous week; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/ton, the same as the previous week. [33] 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel output was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with October. [48] - **Demand**: The report shows the data of domestic stainless - steel monthly output, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries, but does not specifically summarize the demand situation. - **Import and export**: The report shows the data of domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss, but does not specifically summarize the import - export situation. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons. [57] - **Cost**: The report shows the data of domestic refined nickel production cost by raw material and production profit margin by process, but does not specifically summarize the cost situation. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows the data of China's nickel sulfate output and net import volume, but does not specifically summarize the supply situation. - **Demand**: The report shows the data of ternary power battery loading volume and China's ternary precursor output, but does not specifically summarize the demand situation. - **Cost and price**: The report shows the data of battery - grade nickel sulfate production cost, price, and the production profit margin of main raw materials, but does not specifically summarize the cost - price situation. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the global supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecast from 2019 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, the overall supply of nickel exceeded the demand, with the supply - demand surpluses being 82,900 tons, 53,200 tons, and 126,600 tons respectively. [74]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, with the Shanghai nickel main contract hitting a nearly five-year low of 113,980 yuan/ton on November 21, driven by revised Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, accelerated accumulation of refined nickel inventories, and ongoing supply-demand imbalances [1] Demand Structure - In the nickel industry demand structure from January to October 2025, stainless steel, power batteries, alloys, and electroplating accounted for 78.2%, 13.4%, 5.6%, and 1.6% of nickel consumption, respectively, totaling 98.6% [1] - The demand for stainless steel is significantly affected by the real estate sector, which has not shown substantial improvement, leading to continued pressure on stainless steel demand [1] - In the power battery sector, the market share of ternary materials has decreased to around 20% due to the cost advantages of lithium iron phosphate materials, while solid-state batteries are expected to become a key growth driver for nickel demand, although large-scale commercialization is not anticipated until 2030 [1] Alloy and Electroplating Demand - In the alloy sector, nickel consumption is projected to reach approximately 156,000 metal tons in 2025, an increase of 13,000 metal tons from 2024, but the overall contribution to total nickel demand remains limited [2] - Nickel demand in the electroplating sector has remained stable, averaging between 50,000 to 60,000 metal tons annually over the past five years [2] Supply and Production Trends - The supply of nickel intermediate products (MHP) has been growing significantly faster than high-grade nickel due to economic advantages, better raw material adaptability, and superior environmental compatibility [3] - As of October 2025, the profit margins for producing nickel sulfate and refined nickel using MHP are significantly higher than those for high-grade nickel, indicating a shift in production profitability [3] Inventory and Market Outlook - Domestic refined nickel supply is expected to continue increasing in 2025, with accelerated accumulation of inventories observed since the third quarter of this year [5] - Major refined nickel producers, particularly those with their own nickel mines or integrated projects in Indonesia, are likely to maintain profitability and market share despite challenges faced by smaller firms [5] - The overall supply-demand landscape for 2026 suggests that refined nickel demand will not see significant growth, while the continued release of low-cost MHP capacity will keep supply high, leading to a projected nickel price range of 100,000 to 125,000 yuan/ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the surplus pressure on nickel remains significant. However, with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may shift to a volatile pattern in the short term. Future focus should be on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make judgments after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: This week, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, the cost inversion of domestic ferronickel smelters intensified, leading to a significant weakening of ore demand. However, miners still tried to support prices in the short term, so ore prices did not decline significantly. In the future, ore prices may face downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand. In Indonesia, some areas in Sulawesi entered the rainy season, reducing the production efficiency of some mines. With weakening demand and a lower HMM benchmark price, ore prices have a downward impetus. The wet - process ore market remained relatively dull, with prices mainly stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect drove ferronickel prices to decline continuously. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, and industry inventories were high. Many stainless - steel enterprises planned to cut production at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. Some traders sold at lower prices, and the market quotation and transaction center further declined. In the future, the ferronickel production profit level is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel. It is expected that ferronickel prices will gradually stabilize [11]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. In terms of supply, sulfur prices remained strong, and sellers were more willing to support prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year. The overall market transaction was rather cold [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After hitting a new phased low this week, nickel prices rebounded in the short term as the macro - atmosphere improved. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut continued to rise this week, and market risk appetite gradually recovered. In the spot market, prices fluctuated with the futures market, and the premium and discount remained generally stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: Nickel prices rebounded this week. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week [17]. - **Nickel spot premium and discount**: The spot premium and discount were stable with a slight upward trend. As of November 28, the average spot premium of Russian nickel against the nearby contract was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 550 yuan/ton from last week [21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: Ferronickel prices continued to be weak. As of November 28, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 887 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 8 yuan/nickel point from the same period last week. Nickel sulfate prices gradually weakened. As of November 28, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,660 - 27,800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 350 yuan/ton from the same period last week [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable. On November 28, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 52.02 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic refined nickel monthly output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with September [48]. - **Demand**: The report shows relevant data on stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but no specific demand summary is provided [50][52]. - **Import and export**: Not specifically summarized in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [54]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons [57]. - **Cost**: The report presents relevant data on the production cost and profit rate of different refined - nickel production processes, but no specific cost summary is provided [59]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows data on the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China, but no specific supply summary is provided [63]. - **Demand**: The report shows data on the production volume of ternary power batteries and ternary precursors, but no specific demand summary is provided [66]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents data on the production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials, but no specific summary is provided [68]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides data on global nickel supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecasts from 2023 to 2025. Overall, the supply exceeded demand from 2023 - 2025, with the surplus increasing year by year [73].