Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to significant changes in market risk preferences and various asset price fluctuations. The market is in a high - volatility state, and different industries face different situations and investment opportunities [2][16]. - In the bond market, November is mainly in a volatile state, but the probability of a decline in December is relatively high. In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hinted at not supporting a rate cut in December. Fed Governor Cook warned of private credit risks. The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The short - term market volatility is difficult to reduce, and there may still be a decline [14][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Goolsbee is worried about premature and significant rate cuts. The US September non - farm payrolls data made the market's expectation of a December rate cut slightly increase, but it is still less than 50%. Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of correction [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance. The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with new employment exceeding 100,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting foreign trade quality improvement. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. Market rumors of new real - estate stimulus policies may have a positive impact on the economy and prices if implemented. It is recommended not to add long positions in the short term [25][26][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The November LPR remained unchanged. The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The probability of a decline in December is relatively high. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. US bio - fuel policy uncertainty increased, and CBOT soybeans declined. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and South American weather [33][34]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is considering delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel incentives. Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 20.5% month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Wens Co., Ltd. shut down 7 pig farms for capacity adjustment. In the short - term, it is recommended to short LH2601 and LH2603, and in the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity to lay out LH2607 and far - month contracts at low prices [37][38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 442,500 tons week - on - week. Although the current destocking is good, the subsequent inventory pressure is still large, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate slightly decreased, and inventory decreased. The rice - flour price difference is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [41][42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of northern ports increased, and the inventory of southern ports decreased. Corn prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The power plant's winter storage is coming to an end. Coal prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual temperature and daily consumption in December [46]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - US Steel announced a $3 billion expansion project. Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to policy changes [47]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The "Chengdu Declaration" was released. Polysilicon prices are expected to return to an oscillation state, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities [48][49][51]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "anti - involution" of silicone drove up the industrial silicon futures price, but it is actually a negative factor. It is recommended to stop profiting from short positions in a timely manner [52][53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots first increased and then decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [55][56]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. LME zinc oscillated upward. It is recommended to manage positions well in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [57][59][60]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports decreased significantly in October. Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply adjustment [61][62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown's lithium concentrate auction price was higher than the spot price. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees and limits of lithium carbonate futures. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term [64][65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased by 1.51% on November 20. The CEA price has a strong upward driving force [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory decreased by 14 Bcf week - on - week. Nymex natural gas faces a downward risk [69][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices were relatively strong. It is recommended to adjust in the short term and try to go long at low prices in the long term [71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory at the end of the year. It is recommended not to chase the rise unilaterally and to lay out long positions in far - month contracts and 5 - 9 positive spreads at low prices [73][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was weakly adjusted. It is expected that the subsequent market will oscillate [77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - CMA CGM and AD Ports will expand the Khalifa Port terminal. The container freight rate market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at the lower edge of the oscillation range [78][79][80].

美联储理事库克周四在乔治城大学发表讲话时没有明确表态短期利率政策方向，但她指出金融体系正面 临新的潜在风险，包括快速扩张的私人信贷市场、对冲基金在美债市场中的高杠杆交易，以及生成式人 工智能加速被用于机器化交易。库克表示，美国资产价格处于历史高位，她"不排除出现异常规模的价 格下跌"，虽然资产价格下跌本身并不等同于金融不稳定，但她认为"出现大幅回调的可能性正在上 升"。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克当天在另一场活动中也表示反对进一步降息，原因是通胀仍然过高，而金融条 件过度宽松本身就构成风险。她指出，虽然降息有时会被视为"为就业市场投保"，这种保险可能以"更 高的金融稳定风险"为代价。哈马克同样认为银行体系资本充足、家庭部门资产负债表稳健，但她正在 密切关注对冲基金杠杆水平以及私人信贷的增长趋势。 两位官员的担忧与美联储10月会议纪要中披露的观点一致。纪要显示，多名决策者提到金融市场资产估 值偏高，并特别警告，一旦市场对人工智能技术的前景突然改变预期，科技股可能出现无序大幅下跌。 这些担忧反映出当前美联储内部正在围绕两大问题展开激烈辩论，即继续降息是否会让通胀进一步偏离 2%的目标，或劳动力市场的降温是否更需要政策 ...

来源：喜娜AI 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 英伟达业绩超预期，缓解AI泡沫忧虑，股价盘后大涨 日本首相高市早苗拟推出价值21.3万亿日元的经济刺激计划，这是疫情以来最大规模。但市场担忧该计 划恶化财政状况，致日本国债价格大跌、日元贬值，汇率逼近干预区间，日经225指数本周或跌逾1%。 高市承诺减轻家庭生活成本、促进投资，刺激计划将在周五公布，后续还需议会批准。详情>> 美国9月非农数据超预期，美联储12月降息存分歧 推迟发布的美国9月非农报告显示，新增就业11.9万超预期，失业率微升至4.4%。数据公布后，利率互 换市场显示美联储12月降息可能性不大，但交易员仍加大降息押注。美联储官员对12月是否降息分歧严 重，部分认为维持利率稳定适宜，部分支持降息。该数据为市场和政策制定者提供参考，但因滞后性对 决策帮助有限。详情>> A股11月20日高开低走，超3800只个股收跌 11月20日，受英伟达 ...

美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：过去三个月的通胀充其量是保持稳定，从某些衡 量标准来看更糟。在确定通胀回升是否是暂时的之前，对提前大幅降息感到不安。认为美联储主席鲍威 尔努力建立共识的做法很有价值。如果我最终意见强烈，且与其他美联储政策制定者意见不同，提出异 议也没有错。在美联储9月降息后，认为2025年只需要再降息一次。当我投票支持美联储10月降息时， 假定就业市场正在逐渐降温。9月就业数据显示稳定、温和降温；失业救济申请没有显示快速恶化。官 方政府数据是"一团糟"；缺乏通胀可见性带来的风险大于缺乏劳动力市场可见性带来的风险，因为劳动 力市场有更多替代数据。就中期利率而言，他不是鹰派。相信利率将远低于目前的水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Hamark emphasizes the importance of monitoring stablecoins and private credit, indicating that the current financial environment is "quite loose" and that interest rate cuts could distort market pricing levels, potentially prolonging high inflation scenarios [1] Group 1 - The current financial environment is described as "quite loose," suggesting ample liquidity in the market [1] - Interest rate cuts may pose risks by distorting market pricing levels and could lead to prolonged high inflation [1] - Lowering interest rates for risk management purposes could increase financial stability risks [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美联储官员哈玛克称，降息可能会延长高通胀，降息也可能鼓励金融市场冒险行为。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据外媒报道，美联储官员哈玛克表示，降息有延长高通胀的风险。 ...

美国克利夫兰联储主席Hammack：目前金融环境"相当宽松"，现在降息可能会扭曲市场定价水平。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

市场消息 美联储决策迷雾未散！迟来的9月非农数据难以照亮降息前景。美国劳工统计局将于周四发布9月份的非农就业数据，从而结束 因政府停摆导致的官方就业数据空白期——尽管这份数据提供的无疑是过时信息。该报告预计将显示非农就业人数增加5万 人，高于最初报告的8月份的2.2万人，但仍表明劳动力市场疲软。由于这些是9月份的数据，它们对试图在艰难局面中寻找方向 的政策制定者帮助有限，并可能被市场忽视。美联储主席鲍威尔最近将这种情况比作"在雾中驾驶"，并告诫不要将进一步降息 视为板上钉钉。 AI热潮还在持续赋能!巴克莱看好大型科技股引领标普500指数突破7400点。巴克莱策略师将2026年底标普500指数的目标预期上 调至7400点，较该基准指数周三收盘位6642.16点有11.4%的潜在涨幅，理由是超大市值科技股的强势，以及尽管经济增长缓 慢，但货币和财政环境有所改善。7400点的目标较此前7000点的目标上调了5.7%。该行策略师还将标普500指数2026年的每股 收益目标从295美元上调至305美元，因为他们认为科技行业的利润增长将超过华尔街的普遍预期，"超大市值公司在宏观低增长 环境中继续表现出色，且人工智能竞赛没 ...

前言 美联储启动降息周期的消息引发市场热议，当前 4.11% 的联邦基金利率预计 2026 年底将降至 3.5% 以 下。 大企业和高净值人群能获得全球最优的借贷成本，哪怕是 0.25 个百分点的降息，也能为他们节省巨额 资金，进而扩大投资规模。 华尔街因预期资产增值欢呼雀跃，普通家庭却难有体感，这种鲜明反差令人瞩目。 这场被寄予稳定经济厚望的政策调整，为何会成为财富分化的催化剂？在利率下行的大趋势下，如何让 更多人分享政策红利，成为亟待解答的问题。 降息如何放大财富优势 低利率搭配高流动性，会直接推动金融资产价格上涨。那些原本就持有大量股票、基金的群体，自然能 最先从资产增值中获利。 美联储的数据显示，最富有的 0.1% 人群自 2020 年以来财富几乎翻倍，突破 23 万亿美元，而股票是其 财富增长的主要来源。 截至 2025 年，流入交易所交易基金的资金有望达到 1.25 万亿美元的纪录，这一趋势进一步印证了资产 持有者的积极反应。 | | 33 19 | 34.51 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 7.01 | 48.50 | | | 84.69 | 98.25 | ...