海外策略：美国经济稳健 美国经济动能继续回暖。 8月15日，亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型Q3经济增速预测值升高至2.6%，其中私人消 费增速达到2.2%，剔除库存的私人投资增速达到2.3%，私人部门动能完全回归趋势水平。 美国就业形势依然稳健。 W32首次申领失业金人数22.4万，近期趋势稳定低于季节性水平。W31持续申领失业 金人数195.3万，近两个月于193-197万区间震荡，上行趋势或已终结。总体而言，尽管持续失业人数温和上 涨，但首次失业人数保持低位，就业市场在低波动状态中维持着相对均衡，未来失业率上行空间有限。 美国通胀面临上行压力。 7月美国PPI通胀意外陡升至3.3%，环比高增0.9%，再度引发市场对通胀的担忧。尽 管PPI通胀意外上行很大程度来自资产管理费用的结构性增长，但消费回暖与关税落地的影响仍在发酵。 9月降息25bp仍是基准情形，对未来降息空间不宜抱有期待。基于当前美国经济及就业形势考量，美联储并无 大幅降息的宏观条件。 上周由于美国CPI数据低于预期，市场延续鸽派交易，但随后PPI大超预期又令降息预期降温。综合影响下，美 债利率小幅反弹，美元走弱，人民币震荡，黄金高位回落。 美股方 ...

杰克逊霍尔会议前瞻: 模糊论调至上 基本内容 尽管过去一年联储已经下调了 100bp 的基准利率,但当下美国的宏观环境比去年同期更为严峻,美国经济进入 2025 年后增速的明显放缓也需要用降息加以对冲。 2025年08月18日 宏观经济点评报告 宏观经济组 分析师:宋雪涛(执业 S1130525030001) songxuetao@gjzq.com.cn 尽管过去一年联储已经下调了 100bp 的基准利率,但当下美国的宏观环境比去年同期更为严峻,美国经济进入 2025 年后增速的明显放缓也需要用降息加以对冲。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 日付状取更多服务 宏观经济点评 在这个过程中,降息对实体经济(信用)的刺激将主要来自于金融条件宽松、财富效应扩散以及预期改善。在犹豫之 中,美国硬数据的下行趋势或还将延续;鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的态度也值得关注。 从最关心的降息路径来看,我们认为鲍威尔很难在杰克逊霍尔会议给出任何清晰的降息指引,当前积极定价的９月降 息 25bp 将直面联储主席的抗争。如果有指引,那更可能是引导鹰派降息预期:年内更少的降息幅度,更高的终点利 率水平。 9 月降息决策的一锤定音,依然需要８月非农 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Underperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - US inflation data is divided, with July CPI lower than expected but PPI far exceeding expectations. However, most institutions maintain the prediction of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, and the market fully prices in two interest rate cuts within the year [2] - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference is expected to focus on the policy framework rather than interest rate cut guidance. Powell may use the framework adjustment to re - emphasize the central bank's independence, and there is a potential "expectation gap" risk [3] - US Treasury yields have risen, and the yield curve has become steeper. It is recommended to maintain medium - and short - duration US Treasuries as the core allocation and moderately increase high - grade Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, while being cautious about long - end fluctuations [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The figures related to 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios of various maturities, issuance winning bid rates of 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance volume of US Treasuries, and the implied number of interest rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market are presented [14][22][24] 2. US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - Data on US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claims, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales volume year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions are shown [28][30][42] 3. Exchange Rates - Information about the one - year trend of non - US currencies, changes in non - US currencies in the past two weeks, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year US dollar - RMB forward exchange hedging cost is provided [56][58][60] 4. Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The price trends of US dollar bonds in the US, the combined US - European US dollar bonds, global investment - grade US dollar bonds, and global high - yield US dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds are presented, along with the two - week return comparison of the global bond market, the US Treasury volatility MOVE index and the VIX fear index, and the price increases and decreases of US Treasury ETFs of different maturities [63][68][72] 5. Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds - The return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by grade and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by grade and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector are shown [81][84][89] 6. Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 8 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating upgrades, 1 rating withdrawal, and 2 initial ratings [91]

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index has risen into the expansion zone, indicating robust economic momentum in China[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has improved significantly, reaching its highest level in nearly a month[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index has notably increased, driven by policy support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments[1] Inflation and Prices - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the seasonal level by 0.1 percentage points, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024[2] - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and fell by 3.6% year-on-year, reflecting pressures from high temperatures and international trade uncertainties[2] Global Economic Trends - In the U.S., the July CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations[5] - The U.S. PPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly above the expected 2.5%, marking the highest level since February 2025[6] - The UK GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, driven mainly by the services sector[5]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - US President Trump urges the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and threatens to consider a major lawsuit against Fed Chairman Powell over cost overruns on Fed headquarters renovations [1] - US Treasury Secretary Basant clarifies that he is not pressuring the Fed to lower rates, stating he is only discussing neutral interest rate models [1] - The Federal Reserve has terminated the "new activity supervision program" established in 2023, which was aimed at enhancing regulation of banks' cryptocurrency activities, continuing the trend of relaxed regulation in the crypto industry [1] - Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 22 regarding economic outlook and Fed policy framework assessment [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%, the lowest level since April 2023, marking the third rate cut this year [2] - The Bank of Thailand lowers its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, with a unanimous vote, citing expected economic growth and low inflation [3] - The Bank of Canada decides to maintain its current monetary policy due to trade uncertainties and economic resilience, with some officials believing current rate cuts are sufficient to address the mild impact of tariffs on consumer prices [2] - The Bank of Japan considers shifting focus from "potential inflation" indicators to overall inflation rates and expectations, which may pave the way for a rate hike in October [2] - The Norwegian central bank indicates that policy rates may be adjusted more quickly if inflation returns to target levels faster than expected or if unemployment rises more than anticipated [2] - The Turkish central bank continues to implement tight policies despite a decrease in inflation expectations, stating that exchange rate policies will not change [2] Market Observations - Citic Securities reports that the US stock market experienced a style switch following the July CPI release, reminiscent of the "rate cut trade" seen after the June CPI release in 2024 [6] - Barclays analysts note that the nomination of Stephen Moore as a potential new Fed governor could influence future Fed policy direction, raising market concerns [6] - BlackRock analysts suggest that the latest US inflation report alleviates concerns and supports a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with some bets on a significant cut [6] - Goldman Sachs believes the European Central Bank's rate cut cycle has ended, predicting three rate cuts from the Fed this year and two next year, totaling a 125 basis point reduction [7]

Group 1: Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is more severe than the same period last year, necessitating interest rate cuts to counteract a significant slowdown in economic growth expected after 2025[2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points over the past year, but further cuts may be limited due to the current economic conditions[4] - The downward trend in hard data in the U.S. is likely to continue, and Powell's stance at the Jackson Hole meeting will be crucial[4] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - There is skepticism about Powell providing clear guidance on the interest rate cut path at the Jackson Hole meeting, with a 25 basis point cut in September facing resistance[2] - The decision for a September rate cut will depend heavily on the August non-farm payroll data, particularly the unemployment rate and revisions to previous employment figures[2] - If the August non-farm report shows a stable unemployment rate and upward revisions, Powell may have sufficient reasons to reject a September rate cut[21] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Market expectations for a rate cut may be overly optimistic, especially if data does not consistently point towards a clear monetary policy direction[27] - Risks include increased uncertainty from Trump's policies, which could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[28] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may lead to unexpected levels of synchronized easing, potentially alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[28]

大家好我是大鱼 今天的资讯 包括下面几个消息 1. 投资市场新闻 2. 特斯拉又「自燃」？ 关注这些领域的朋友 不要错过 今天重要的内容 OK let's go 第一部分 投资市场新闻 这个礼拜 全世界的投资人 都在等一个 男人开口 他的一句话 可能决定我们手上 特斯拉股票的走向 甚至是你下一台 Model Y 的 贷款利率 这个人不是马斯克 而是美联储 (Fed) 的主席 杰罗姆 · 鲍尔(Jerome Powell) 这周五 他即将在怀俄明州 的杰克森洞(Jackson Hole ) 全球央行年会上 发表演说 市场到底在 期待什么？ 简单来说 就是两个字 降息 现在整个市场 几乎都认定美联储 下个月(九月) 就要降息了 有多确定？ 根据彭博社的数据 货币市场认为 九月降息25 个 基点的机率 已经飙到84% 而且 大家还预期 年底前至少 还会降两次 为什么市场 这么有信心？ 主要原因是 美国的就业市场 终于开始降温了 之前大家一直担心 经济过热 美联储不敢松手 但七月份疲软的 就业数据 给了市场一个 强烈的信号 说明美国的经济引擎 转速慢下来了 可以踩点刹车 不用再猛 踩油门 了 但事情如果 这么简单 我 ...

牛津经济研究院指出，关税影响将持续推高通胀，厘清其与持久性压力殊为不易。市场资深人士Ed Yardeni坚持"按兵不动"观点，认为高通胀与强劲经济支撑延迟降息。Yardeni Research预计鲍威尔将谨 言慎行，如"猫头鹰"般观望，称降息有可能但取决于数据。美国银行亦持谨慎态度，关注其能否实 现"言行一致"。鉴于市场已充分定价9月降息预期，任何鹰派表态都将引发剧烈波动，晨星公司甚至警 示，推迟降息实则等同于紧缩政策。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 刚刚黄金格突破3340美元/盎司，伴随0.37%的涨幅，显示市场交投活跃。根据回看3323附近触发了算法 交易和投机者的跟风买入，形成短期上涨动能。交易量可能在2500万-3500万盎司区间。 【要闻速递】 众人目光聚焦美联储主席鲍威尔，其将于本周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的央行会议上发表重磅演讲。该 年会向来是政策制定者释放利率信号的平台，去年他便曾预示降息趋势。 如今，华尔街预估美联储9月重启降息，此前因特朗普关税扰动经济而暂停多时，且白宫施压、鸽派理 事上任等因素叠加。然而，鲍威尔此次或难给出明确指引。一方面，通胀仍超2%目标，关税推升物价 使形势复杂；经济学家对就 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The current coal - coke market is oscillating due to cost support, emotional resilience, and a weak supply - demand balance. Without new negative factors, coal prices may continue to oscillate [1]. - After the US - Russia talks, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias in the medium term [1]. - Due to the off - season of high temperature and heavy rain and the sluggish real estate market, the steel market's supply - demand pressure has increased in the short term, and steel prices may oscillate weakly. However, the supply - demand pressure may ease around late August and early September, and the price movement range may be limited [3]. - The supply of iron ore may increase, demand may slightly rise, and the inventory may slightly decrease. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The significant increase in US sales data and PPI has led to a revision of the expected interest - rate cut, but the probability of a September rate cut remains above 80%. The falling US dollar index supports precious metals, and silver is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4]. - The short - term supply of live pigs exceeds demand. It is recommended to go long at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Pig farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [4]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and affected by the plantation investigation in Indonesia, palm oil prices have broken through previous highs. The domestic market shows high - level oscillation [5]. - The short - term spot price of soybean meal will experience a phased correction, while the medium - to - long - term price center will gradually rise [7]. - The domestic soda ash market price is oscillating at a low level, with high supply and tepid demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The domestic methanol market has high - level inventory accumulation. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8]. - For short - term national bonds, it is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds. National bonds are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [9]. - The polypropylene market is in weak consolidation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Crude oil has no upward momentum in the short term and should be treated with a downward - oscillating view [11]. - The supply - demand situation of PX has a marginal weakening. PX prices are expected to oscillate with a downward bias [12]. - The asphalt market's supply is stable, but demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and funding shortages. The overall fundamentals have weakened [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 74.34% (+0.31%), daily coke output is 65.38 (+0.28), coke inventory is 62.51 (-7.22), coking coal total inventory is 976.88 (-11.04), and coking coal available days are 11.2 days (-0.18 days) [1]. Metals - **Rebar**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 83.59% (-0.16 ppts), blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization is 90.22% (+0.13 ppts), steel mill profitability is 65.8% (-2.60 ppts), and daily hot - metal output is 240.66 tons (+0.34 tons, +11.89 tons YoY) [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13819.27 tons (+107.00 tons), daily port clearance volume is 334.67 tons (+12.82 tons), and the number of ships at ports is 93 (-12) [3]. - **Silver**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% MoM, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.9%. After inflation adjustment, the real retail sales increased by 1.2% YoY, achieving positive growth for ten consecutive months [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: As of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.23 kg (-0.09 kg), the weekly slaughter operating rate is 28.37% (+0.16%), the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 204.05 yuan/pig (-17.142.97 yuan/pig), the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 11.83 yuan/pig (-15.59 yuan/pig), and the price of piglets is 383.33 yuan/pig (-30.48 yuan/pig) [4]. - **Palm Oil**: From August 1 to 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be 724191 tons, a 16.5% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of August 15, the inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises are 8.35 days (-0.02 days MoM, +9.21% YoY) [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (+2.24% WoW), the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 189.38 tons (+1.54% WoW), the operating rate of float glass is 75.34% (+0.15% WoW), the average price of national float glass is 1160 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton DoD), and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy - boxes (+2.55% WoW) [7]. - **Methanol**: The port sample inventory of Chinese methanol is 102.18 tons (+9.63 tons WoW), the sample production enterprise inventory is 29.56 tons (+0.19 tons WoW), the sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 21.94 tons (-2.14 tons WoW), the market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2325 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), the methanol capacity utilization rate is 82.4% (+0.97% WoW), and the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.36% (-0.34% WoW) [8]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China stretch - grade polypropylene is 7051 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), the polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 76.92% (-1.58% DoD), the average operating rate of downstream industries is 49.35% (+0.45 ppts WoW), the commercial inventory of polypropylene is 82.72 tons (-2.92 tons WoW), and the inventory of two major oil companies' polyolefins is 76.5 tons (-1 ton WoW) [9]. - **PX**: The load of the Chinese PX industry has increased by 3.2% to 84.3(+2.3)%, and the load of the Asian PX industry has increased by 0.2% to 73.6% [12]. - **Asphalt**: As of August 13, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises is 32.9% (+1.2% WoW). As of August 15, the weekly inventory of domestic asphalt is 58.5 tons (+3 tons WoW), the sample factory inventory is 71.1 tons (+3.2 tons WoW), and the domestic social inventory of asphalt is 134.3 tons (-2.4 tons WoW) [12]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of August 15, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 412, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US PPI data in July significantly exceeded expectations, with the year - on - year PPI at 3.3%, the month - on - month PPI at 0.9%, and the month - on - month import price index at 0.4%. Fed officials have different views on inflation, and the Trump administration's selection of the new Fed chair has influenced their statements [2]. - Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium on August 22. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting with a probability of 92.1%, and also prices in another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will be the time to announce the new Fed chair, which may further boost the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to wait for Powell's statement. If it is dovish, consider going long on gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On August 18, Shanghai Gold fell 0.01% to 775.08 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.10% to 9217.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.04% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.13% to 38.02 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index was 97.85 [2]. - For other market data on August 18, such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., specific closing prices, changes, and percentage changes are provided [4]. 3.2 Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - For gold on August 15, COMEX Gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory had different changes compared to the previous day, with the closing price down 0.02%, trading volume down 28.99%, open interest down 0.78%, and inventory down 0.02%. Similar data for other gold - related indicators like LBMA Gold, SHFE Gold, and Au(T + D) are also presented [6]. - For silver on August 15, COMEX Silver's closing price, open interest, and inventory had changes, with the closing price down 0.04%, open interest down 3.00%, and inventory up 0.11%. Similar data for other silver - related indicators like LBMA Silver, SHFE Silver, and Ag(T + D) are also provided [6]. 3.3 Charts and Their Information - Multiple charts show the relationships between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure. For example, there are charts of COMEX Gold price vs. the US dollar index, COMEX Gold price vs. real interest rates, etc. [11][12] - There are also charts showing the near - far month structures of COMEX Gold, London Gold - COMEX Gold, Shanghai Gold, and related spreads, as well as similar charts for silver [20][21][37][38] - Charts about the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX Gold and Silver and their prices are presented [40] - Charts of the total holdings of Gold ETFs and Silver ETFs are provided [47] - Charts of the internal - external spreads of gold and silver, including their MA5 and seasonal patterns, are shown [50][51][57]